Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 2/14
We are back for another edition of Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 2/14 coming your way with the first NBA slate without NFL. Today’s slate brings us nine-game with tons of news and Questionable tags we will be waiting on. Some of those names include Anthony Davis, De’Aaron Fox, and Jamal Murray just to name a few. Those are significant names that would alter the slate pending their status. We haven’t even talked about half of Orlando being questionable entering this slate. Discord Chat will be extremely important for tonight’s slate as we wait for injury status’.

I will be using DraftKings pricing for my breakdown where Luka Doncic is our highest salary of $11,100. For today’s article, I will name my top two DraftKings plays at each position for this evening’s game slate based upon my research. Today’s top plays are ready to be seen let’s check them out!

Point Guard
Damian Lillard – ($9,600)
Over the past ten games, Dallas has been the worst defensive team in the NBA by far. They have also been playing at the tenth fastest pace in those games which is up from their season average of 18th. Lillard’s usage rate continues to be high with McCollum off the floor as he is averaging a 35% usage over the past four games. Lastly, this price is just too cheap for me. Dame, his scored at least 45 fantasy points in ten of his last twelve games. One of those games he didn’t his 45 was a massive blowout against Clevland. The matchup and usage should provide a solid path to a huge night for Dame Dollar.

Michael Carter Williams – ($4,700)
This is specifically if Orlando remains shorthanded for tonight’s game. Last game MCW played 27 minutes in his return from a lengthy absence. If the Magic are shorthanded again that number should only increase for MCW. With no point guard, a healthy MCW saw a 36.5% usage rate last game against Sacramento. If Orlando is shorthanded again MCW will play as many minutes as he is able and his fantasy points per minute last game with these guys out was nearly 1.5.

Shooting Guard
Dillon Brooks – ($5,400)
Desmond Bane and De’Anthony Melton have already been ruled out for this game again. With one of those guys out, Brooks has seen over 30 minutes for three straight games now. In two of those games, he scored 31 or more fantasy points while seeing a 24% usage rate. A beautiful matchup awaits Brooks as Sacramento still ranks dead last in defensive rating and just gave up 123 points to a depleted Orlando team.

RJ Hampton – ($3,400)
Hampton has seen minutes recently due to the absence of Gary Harris and Pj Dozier. Now we get to add Will Barton to that list which should only increase Hampton’s minutes again. He is averaging .8 fantasy points per minute with those guys out and Jamal Murray is questionable in addition to those players. In two of his last four games, he scored 24.5 fantasy points while only playing 19 minutes in one of those games. His minutes I would expect to be at least high 20’s ish and that will be plenty to pay off this low salary.

Small Forward
Khris Middleton – ($7,800)
Since Jrue Holiday is ruled out again I will be happy to roll out Middleton under 8K. A bad game against Utah caused Middleton’s price to drop below 8K. Now he faces OKC who has given up the third-most fantasy points to small forwards this season. His usage rate without Holiday climbs by almost 2% along with a 9% assist rate increase. With Holiday off the court, he is averaging 1.4 fantasy points per minute and should be able to pay off this salary with this matchup.

Miles Bridges – ($5,100)
Entering this game PJ Washington is doubtful and the Martin brothers are ruled out. Charlotte will be shorthanded for this game with forwards so Bridges should see 30 minutes here. Charlotte was missing a starter for the past four games and Bridges has seen 31 minutes in three of those. The matchup is good as well with San Antonio ranking fourth fastest in the past five games without Aldridge. Giving up the seventh-most fantasy points to small forwards should fare well for Bridges also.

Power Forward
Jerami Grant – ($7,400)
A fantastic matchup awaits Grant as New Orleans ranks fourth-worst in defensive rating on the season and third-worst in the previous ten games. Grant is averaging a usage rate of 28% in the last four games without Derrick Rose. Minutes are hardly an issue with Grant as he’s seen 35 minutes or more in four straight games. His ceiling is well above 40 fantasy points and what better spot to do it than a consistently bad defensive team.

Nemanja Bjelica – ($3,600)
For Bjelica to be in play Bagley would have to sit yet another game. Last game when Bagley was out Bjelica saw his first action in nearly a month. He was rather impressive playing 28 minutes while recording 35 fantasy points. In that game, Bjelica fell one board shy of a double-double. An amazing positional matchup here for Bjelica as Memphis has given up the most fantasy points to power forwards in the past ten games.

Center
Karl Anthony Towns – ($9,400)
Toronto has struggled against Centers in the past ten games allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to them. The Raptors as a team have ranked fifth-worst defensively in the past ten games. Towns should be without a minute’s limit here in his third game back and he saw 32 minutes last game. His usage rate can get to 30% I believe with D’Angelo Russell being ruled out already. Before getting hurt and missing time to COVID, Towns had scored at least 50 fantasy points in three of his four games. I think we see that 50-fantasy point mark return tonight against Toronto.

Kristaps Porzingis – ($8,500)
This game is projected to be the largest total on the slate so with having Lillard I want to run it back with Kristaps. Portland ranks third-worst overall defensively on the season and has given up the sixth-most fantasy points to centers. Adding to that they have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to centers in the past ten games. He has seen a usage increase lately with usage above 30% in four of his last five games. Specifically, in the past two games, his usage has been 36% well above his season average of around 28%. Tough game to ignore here but Dame and Porzingis are two pieces that are intriguing to me.

Monkey Knife Fight
Grizz vs Kings
Ja Morant – 19.5 points – More – With Melton and Bane ruled out Morant’s minutes are solidified as Memphis was running a deep rotation. He is facing the worst defensive team in the league and has played 35 minutes or more in two of the past three games. I love both of these plays and think they are near locks if Fox sits this game.
Buddy Hield – 17.5 points – More – this number seems way low for a guy that attempts at least ten threes per game most nights. Hield has surpassed this total in three straight games in tougher matchups (ORL, PHI, LAC). His minutes are sky high as well playing 37 minutes in eight of his last nine games. If Fox is out Hield should have no issues hitting at least 18 points for the game.
Closing Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 2/14
Hope you all have enjoyed your weekend and continue to enjoy what is left. Thank you for taking the time to read my article Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 2/14. As I mentioned earlier, we are waiting on news from several big names that would change this slate.

Join the WinDaily staff and me in the Discord chat rooms to keep updated on all news for each slate. When news does break check our projection models for our top point per dollar value plays for the evening. Our highest projected total is Dallas vs Portland with a total of 236 points. We do have multiple other games hovering around that 229-230 point mark which should make for an interesting high scoring slate. Have a wonderful Sunday and good luck to you!

NBA GPP Picks 1/23 

We have a seven game NBA main slate for this edition of NBA GPP Picks 1/23. It is a very interesting slate as ten of fourteen teams playing today are on the back end of a back-to-back. There is also a different than normal lock time as we lock at 7PM CST. Brooklyn could be a team to watch as Kevin Durant sat last night it would not surprise me if Kyrie sat tonight. That game Miami vs Brooklyn is currently projected as the highest scoring contest at 232.5 points. A new player was added to the injury report as Devin Booker suffered a Hamstring injury late in last night’s game and is unlikely to play tonight. In my article I will be using DraftKings pricing where Nikola Jokic is our highest priced player at $10,800. My article will consist of two players at each position that I believe has potential major upside based upon the players price and my research. Let’s breakdown these seven games for tonight’s NBA DFS slate!

Point Guard 

Jamal Murray – ($6,700) 

This is the lowest price that Murray has been this season as he was priced here one other time. That other scenario was against Phoenix who he faces again tonight. Although it seems to be a rather tough matchup in two games against Phoenix Murray is averaging 47 DraftKings points. In those two games he has an average usage of nearly 28% which is 4% above his season average. Jamal has scored over 40 fantasy points in three of his last four games.  

Donovan Mitchell – ($7,800) 

Seven straight games Mitchell has scored at least 36 fantasy points in large part due to his massive usage. Mithcell is averaging a usage of 32% this season and has a usage of at least 31% in his last four games. Facing the Warriors who rank as the third fastest team in the NBA should only benefit Mitchell. In the four games he has faced teams top ten in pace he has gone for at least 40 fantasy points in three of those. One of those games against Milwaukee he eclipsed 50 fantasy points. With this big pace up spot another night of at least 40 fantasy points is expected. 

Shooting Guard 

Kendrick Nunn – ($5,600) 

With Herro already ruled out and as long as Jimmy Butler is out again, I will play Nunn. He has played at least 34 minutes in the last three games without those two. In those games he is averaging a usage rate of 25%, and averaging just north of 40 fantasy points. A fantastic matchup against Brooklyn who ranks as the fifth fastest team and eighth worst defensively. Three straight games of at least 34.75 fantasy points and that streak will continue if Butler remains out. 

Wayne Ellington – ($3,800) 

Three straight games now we have seen Ellington on the court for at least 28 minutes. He has made that court time count shooting ten threes per game in those three games. In those three games Ellington’s lowest fantasy output was 24.5 which is amazing value for his current price. A great matchup as Philadelphia is the fourth fastest team this season and has allowed the sixth most fantasy points to shooting guards. Philly has allowed the second most three pointers made to shooting guards this season which is excellent for a three-point specialist like Ellington. 

Small Forward  

Lebron James – ($9,400) 

At this price I feel Lebron’s floor is extremely safe as he has scored at least 45 fantasy points in 12 of his last 15 games. A pace up spot with Chicago who is the second fastest team should only make it safer. Chicago ranks fourth worst in defensive rating and have given up the third most fantasy points to point guards this season. The Bulls have given up the second highest field goal percentage to opposing point guards. I think this is a fantastic spot for Lebron and like my chances for him to record a triple double here.  

Abdel Nader – ($3,000) 

Missing majority of the season due to a concussion Nader is finally getting into game shape. He was tied for the most minutes off the bench against Denver last night and now Booker is ruled out. Nader could see a minute’s boost as he has passed Jevon Carter in the rotation. In last night’s game Nader had his highest minute total and a solid usage of 19.1%. We need to monitor who starts for Booker we could have some Minimum salary value. There are several starting options for Phoenix so we will have to wait on the starting lineup. Regardless there is some value as Jevon Carter, Abdel Nader, and Cameron Payne all have potential to see a minutes boost here. 

Power Forward 

Zion Williamson – ($7,600) 

If Minnesota runs the same starting lineup as they have been Zion will have a 70-pound size advantage over Jarred Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt starting has shown as in the last five games Minnesota has allowed the fifth most fantasy points to power forwards. The Wolves have struggled to rebound as they are dead last in defensive rebounding along with third lowest total rebound percentage. A 28% usage rate and a Wolves team rated as the fifth worst defense in the NBA should be a recipe for success.  

Cameron Johnson – ($4,400) 

Booker suffering an injury and unlikely to play will benefit Cam Johnson. If we take Saric and Booker off the floor Johnson see’s the highest usage increase on the team at 6.1%. Denver has struggled defensively ranking 25^th in defensive rating this season. Johnson busted last night and I hope that takes some ownership off him. He played 32 minutes last night and now we are taking away a player averaging a 30% usage rate. That means good things for Johnson as he’s scored 1.14 fantasy points per minute without Saric and Booker this season. 

Center 

Rudy Gobert – ($7,300) 

Four straight double doubles now for Gobert with three of those against very tough centers in Steven Adams (twice), and Nikola Jokic. He draws a much better matchup against the rookie Wiseman here as Golden State has allowed the eighth most fantasy points to centers and contains the second lowest rebound percentage in the league. A huge pace up spot here as well with Golden State ranking the third fastest team on the year. Gobert is averaging 1.21 fantasy points per minute this season and he should average that in this fantastic matchup against Golden State.  

Demarcus Cousins – ($5,100) 

Boogie saw a season high 33 minutes in last night’s game with Detroit. He scored 36 fantasy points while shooting 2-16 from the field which is unlikely to happen again. His usage rate is near 25% on a nightly basis this season. When we take Wood and Wall off the floor this season his usage doesn’t change much but his fantasy points per minutes sits at 1.25. If Boogie surpasses 30 minutes and we look at the FPPM he should smash value again but hopefully with a better shooting night. 

Monkey Knife Fight 

Pelicans vs Timberwolves

D’Angelo Russell – 23.5 points – More – His usage rate has been at least 30% all season especially with Towns absent. Point guards against the Pelicans are averaging 36 real points in 48 minutes. Russell should be able to hit this mark, he only played 21 minutes last night as the Wolves got thumped. 

Zion Williamson – 23.5 points – More – As I mentioned above If Zion matches up with Jarred Vanderbilt I expect him to bully the much smaller Vanderbilt. Zion is tied for the highest usage on the team at 28%. I love attacking players against Minnesota and Zion should surpass this total with the Wolves minimal rim protection. 

Closing NBA GPP Picks 1/23 

We have some potential value on tonight’s slate with Booker doubtful due to a Hamstring injury. I mentioned earlier we do have some rest candidates my guess would be Kyrie or Embiid but it’s possible everyone plays too. Keeping up with NBA news is easy if you join myself and Win Daily Sports staff in the Discord Chat rooms. NBA slates can change in the blink of an eye and that is the best place to keep up with our strategies. Check out the projection models as well for all player values! Thanks for reading this edition of NBA GPP Picks 1/23. It will be a busy Saturday with NBA and a UFC card featuring Conor McGregor. Best of luck with your lineups or bets and let’s make some money!