NASCAR

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial as well to make sure you are ready and have an understanding of how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

This week we are out in the desert for the Instacart 500 from Phoenix Raceway! Looking back to last week quickly we saw Kyle Larson ($9,600) dominate the second half of the race from Vegas and get the win. Phoenix is another great track for Larson, so this won’t be the last time you see his name in this article.

Also last week we had Kevin Harvick ($11,900) as absolute chalk that completely busted. This week Harvick is the highest priced driver starting from P18 which will make people have to decide if they want to play Harvick at his elevated price.

This week, and going forward, I am going to break down the dominator and mid tier in order of how I rank the drivers in this tier as opposed to in salary order

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Chase Elliott ($11,500)

Starting Position: 6th

Elliott is the defending series champion and won the fall race here championship weekend to clinch the title. We know this team knows to prepare dominant cars for this track and they will have one on Sunday. Elliott had 53 fastest laps and led 153 laps (49% of the race) at this race in November, both were the most by any driver. In the spring he was just as dominant leading more laps than anyone (93) and had more fastest laps than the field as well (60). Basically, Elliott should dominate this race on Sunday and I don’t fear his high price tag.

Brad Keselowski ($10,400)

Starting Position: 1st

Keselowski has never won at Phoenix, but this could be his week. Last week at Vegas, Keselowski was the fastest car but just couldn’t get to Larson to get the victory. It was a similar situation for the #2 Penske Ford at Phoenix last season where he was the fastest car (tied with Elliott). Elliott dominated the middle of the race, but Keselowski was the fastest car in the final 80 laps but just couldn’t get to Elliott. I really like what Keselowski has done this season and I think this may be his week to get his first Phoenix win.

Kyle Larson ($9,600)

Starting Position: 2nd

Coming off his first win in 2021, Larson will start 2nd and I think he is honestly underpriced for what he could potentially do at this race. Last spring Larson finished 4th in the #42 Chip Ganassi Chevy which isn’t nearly as good as the car he will be in on Sunday. Larson’s speed ranking was 11th, but he came on strong at the end of the race and was the 4th fastest car in the finally 80 or so laps.

Joey Logano ($11,100)

Starting Position: 9th

Logano is priced up on Sunday but I like that because it could keep his ownership down. Last season at this race Logano came home with victory after leading 60 laps and having ranked 3rd in speed in the race. Logano was also strong in the fall where he finished 3rd and led 125 laps (second to Elliott). In 2020 on similar flat short tracks like this one nobody was better than the 22 team. Logano had a 2.8 average finish, finished in the top 4 in EVERY race, and ranked as the 4th fastest car overall. Logano should definitely be a factor for the win and a plethora of dominator points on Sunday.

5 – Denny Hamlin ($9,900) – P3: I really do like Hamlin this week, but I think he may be somewhat chalky and there are better options around him this week

6 – Kyle Busch ($10,800) – P7: Busch finally had a good showing in Vegas last week. I haven’t decided if I will have a lot or none of Kyle in this race, but I think his ownership will be down again this week

7- Kevin Harvick ($11,900) – P18: Harvick has won at Phoenix nine times, and we cannot overlook that stat. I don’t love the price, but I do love the possible place differential upside.

Top Tier Place Differential Play: Aric Almirola ($9,000) – P30

Almirola has been in a slump to start the year, but he is at a track where he’s had success. In the 4 flat short track races last season, Alrimola finished inside the top 13 in each race and had an average finish of 9th. I thought Almirola would be priced higher so he will be chalky, but this could be good chalk that I don’t mind eating.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Christopher Bell ($8,100)

Starting Position: 4th

I don’t think anyone will play Bell this week based on his starting position, but that is why I have him as my top mid-tier play. Bell is in some of the best equipment in the series and should compete for a top 10, maybe even a top 5 on Sunday. Last season at similar tracks Bell fared well in inferior equipment. At New Hampshire Bell was the tenth fastest car, and then at Richmond Bell ranked 14th. This season alone Bell has had fastest laps, led laps, or both in every race and I think that is an indicator of how well he has been doing in 2021 and I am not afraid to put him in my lineups on Sunday.

William Byron ($8,300)

Starting Position: 10th

Byron has been good at Phoenix, especially last year when he came home with two top 10 finishes in two races here. In 2021 so far, Byron has been one of the best drivers with two straight top 10’s including the win at Homestead. At short flat tracks like Phoenix, Byron has finished inside the top 15 in 9 of his 14 races at these tracks. Byron had a 13.25-speed ranking last season at similar tracks and was top 13 in all races with the exception of Richmond. Byron is practically a lock for a top 10 on Sunday, barring unforeseen circumstances obviously.

Matt DiBenedetto ($8,500)

Starting Position: 20th

DiBenedetto is actually one of the top drivers at Phoenix, and short flat tracks in general. Over his last three Phoenix races, DiBenedetto has an average finishing position of 11.3 and an average running position of 11.6. At similar style tracks in 2020, DiBenedetto had the 7th best speed ranking (9.5) and had an average finish of 11th (8th best in the series)

Mid Tier Place Differential Play: Tyler Reddick ($7,900) – P23

Reddick was a top 10 contender last season at short flat tracks and had a total speed ranking of 12th. Last season at the first Phoenix race Reddick had the 8th best speed ranking and was top 10 most of the day but a late-race wreck relegated him to a 33rd place finish.

Other Options: Kurt Busch ($7,700), Alex Bowman ($8,700), Austin Dillon ($7,400), Bubba Wallace ($7,200)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Cole Custer ($6,700) – P24: Custer was a top 15 driver at these tracks last season
2. Ricky Stenhouse ($5,500) – P11: Stenhouse starts high in the field, but he is cheap and was top 20 here last Spring until he got busted for speeding on pit road
3. Chris Buescher ($6,400) – P17: Buescher has five straight top 20’s at Phoenix
4. Anthony Alfredo ($5,800) – P28: Alfredo has low twenties potential as he has been improving his finishes each week.
5. Michael McDowell ($6,200) – P16: McDowell is having a career year and this is his home track and a top 20 is on the cards
6. Daniel Suarez ($5,900) – P27: Suarez finished 21st here last spring, he is in better equipment this season.
7. Ryan Newman ($6,600) – P19: Short-track racing has been some of Newman’s best tracks and he hasn’t finished lower than 24th here since 2016
8. Corey Lajoie ($6,000) – P33: If Lajoie can avoid more issues with his car he can easily come home top 25, but that’s a big IF.
9. Ross Chastain ($6,900) – P22: Chastain has an average speed ranking of 15.5 in 2021, and if things go well for Chastain he could pull a top 15.

Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial as well to make sure you are ready and have an understanding of how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

We are back for one last time this weekend from Las Vegas with the Cup Series Pennzoil 400! Last week we saw Byron dominate the second half of the race and get the win. We also saw Kyle Busch as the top-priced driver and for intents and purposes, bust. This week, Kyle is the highest-priced driver again and I just don’t think he can meet the value he needs to for that huge price tag. Joey Logano is the two-time defending champion of this race and there is a really good chance he 3 peats.

Unlike last week, tire wear here is minimal so you won’t see as much strategy involving tires, and also tires won’t make too much of a difference later in runs. When building lineups I will try to follow similar builds to the previous races this weekend. I want to find one driver who will lead a good portion of laps, and then pair them with drivers who have place differential upside in the top tier. We have some good plays in the mid-tier so we don’t need to take more than 2 low-tier drivers which is definitely what we want.

Kurt Busch ($8,100) won the fall race here last season but he wasn’t a dominant driver and benefited from a timely caution. This was Busch’s first win at his home track. I wouldn’t say I want to fade Kurt on Sunday but even though he’s shown good speed this season and won here in 2020 he is not one of the top options in the mid-tier this week.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

This week, and going forward, I am going to break down the dominator tier in order of how I rank the drivers in this tier as opposed to in salary order.

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,000)

Starting Position: 4th

Truex has been immensely successful at Vegas over his career, especially recently. In five of the last six races here Truex has had a top five ranked car based on all the speed metrics. Since 2017 Truex has a 3.5 average finish, a 6th place average running position, and has led 47.3 laps per race. Truex looked really good last week at Homestead and will be a threat to win on Sunday.

Kevin Harvick ($9,700)

Starting Position: 1st

Harvick dominated this race last season, but ended up second to Logano. In the first Las Vegas race in 2020, Harvick had 61 fastest laps and 85 laps led, both of which were tops in the entire race field. Normally we don’t want polesitters, but when you have someone like Harvick who could take over a race and lead 75-100 laps you need to roster those types of drivers.

Chase Elliott ($10,600)

Starting Position: 8th

In my mind, Elliott rounds out the trio of drivers I think have the potential to dominate this race. Last season in the fall Las Vegas race Elliott had one of the best cars in the entire field but you wouldn’t know it by his 22nd place finish. Elliott led 73 laps, finished 4th in stage one, and won stage two, and lastly, Elliott had an average running position of 4.4. If it wasn’t for an untimely caution late in the race Elliott probably would have come home with an easy top 5.

Joey Logano ($10,000)

Starting Position: 15th

Logano is one of the best fantasy drivers when it comes to Las Vegas. Like I said in the open, Logano is the back-to-back winner of this race and will be one of the favorites to win again on Sunday. In the last 5 spring Las Vegas races, Logano has finished in the top seven in every race and has an average finish of 3rd. Since the current rules package was introduced (last 4 Vegas races), Logano has led the most laps per race (56.8), has the second-best average finish (6.3), and the 3rd best averaging running position (8.3).

5 – Kyle Larson ($9,400) – P3

6 – Brad Keselowski ($10,300) – P10

7 – Denny Hamlin ($9,200) – P6

Top Tier Place Differential Play: Ryan Blaney ($10,800) – P26

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

William Byron ($8,300)

Starting Position: 2nd

Byron is once again in a position to be overlooked and come in with minimal ownership and I want to take advantage of that. Last week Byron surprised me and dominated at Homestead and I won’t make the same mistake this week. In the fall race here last season, Byron had a very unfair finish of 25th place. Byron led 12 laps and had 10 fastest laps as well as spending the majority of the race inside the top 15 and being the 13th ranked car in NASCAR speed rankings. In this race, last season Byron was tied with Logano for the fastest car on track in all segments, but again was unlucky because of cautions and finished 22nd.

Alex Bowman ($8,800)

Starting Position: 9th

Bowman was in contention in both Vegas races last season and ranked 4th (Spring) and 3rd (Fall) in the speed rankings but finished 13th and 5th respectively. Bowman has the 5th best average finish ranking over the last four Las Vegas races with an 8.8 average finish.

Austin Dillon ($7,600)

Starting Position: 12th

Last season in the 2nd Las Vegas race Dillon was a contender for the win and was running inside the top 10 most of the night. Dillon finished 6th in both stages and was set u for a great finish until it all unraveled for him. With about 75 laps to go Dillon received a pit road penalty for too many men over the wall on his stop when a crew member fell over trying to catch a tire. After being sent to the back for that violation, Dillon had a power steering leak 20 laps later which ended his day and had him finish 32nd. Austin has looked good this season and was a top car here last season and should be one of the top mid-tier drivers when it’s all said and done on Sunday.

Tyler Reddick ($7,900)

Starting Position: 11th

Reddick was a chalk play last week, but this week he could be on the complete opposite end of ownership. On Saturday Reddick ran the Xfinity Series race here and came home in 12th place so he has a feel for the track which is an advantage no one else in the top tiers of the field has. Last Fall Reddick a disastrous race here finishing 38th, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. On lap 37 Reddick had to make a pit stop for a loose wheel which put him a lap down. Then on the final lap of the second stage, Reddick went hard into the wall which put an end to his day early.

Mid Tier Place Differential Play: Aric Almirola ($8,600) – P28

Other Options: Christopher Bell ($7,700), Bubba Wallace ($7,000), Chase Briscoe ($7,400)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Cole Custer ($6,500) – P20: Custer was 16th here last fall and a top 15 is definitely in the cards on Sunday
2. Chris Buescher ($6,400) P18: Buescher was a surprise last week when he led a good portion of the early race, but his car got away from him late
3. Daniel Suarez ($6,100) P22: Suarez has two straight top 20’s and he is a very confident driver right now.
4. Anthony Alfredo ($5,700) P27: Alfredo is a mid-20’s driver at best, but maybe some luck comes his way, and does better on Sunday
5. Ryan Preece ($5,800) P19: I don’t expect much more than a mid-20’s finish from Preece but he has been better than expected this season, so a high teens finish is possible
6. Ryan Newman ($6,700) P13: I don’t love Newman, but he is a veteran that will have little to no ownership
7. Michael McDowell ($6,000) P5: McDowell has not done well at Vegas in the past, but he has outdone all expectations this season so far, so why not again on Sunday.
8. Corey Lajoie ($6,300) P32: Lajoie had some decent success in recent Las Vegas races finishing in the low 20’s. That type of finish would be great value for his price on Sunday.
9. BJ McLeod ($5,100) P34: McLeod is at best a low-30’s to high-20’s driver. I don’t expect much but in large field GPP’s he could be a decent low owned play.

Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial as well to make sure you are ready and have an understanding of how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

After a couple of crazy weeks at Daytona, we are on the 1.5-mile oval at Homestead! This is basic 1.5 oval racing, but this is a high tire wear track. If you didn’t play the Xfinity contests yesterday or are a FanDuel only player this is what I wrote yesterday about high tire wear: What that means is drivers who charge out fast out of the gate will fall off at the end of a run and drivers who sit back and take care of their tires will have speed at the end of the run. Basically, it boils down to a lot of passing and pit strategy and makes for an interesting race.

NASCAR has thankfully gotten rid of the competition caution this week which means our polesitter (Denny Hamlin) has a chance to lead most of, if not the entire, first stage. Teams pretty much always came down pit road at the competition caution, especially on tracks like this where tires matter, last season and it messed with the momentum of the leaders. Usually, we don’t want to roster pole sitters but like with Cindric on Saturday, Hamlin could easily dominate the majority of this race. There are a few drivers who are expected to be chalky based on price and starting position. I will signify them in the article for you.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Chase Elliott ($11,000)

Starting Position: 11th

Nobody in the Cup Series was better on high tire wear track in 2020 than the defending series champion. Elliott is the only driver who ranked in the top ten in total speed at all four of these tracks last season. Not only was Elliott fastest at high tire wear tracks, but he was also second fastest behind only his good friend, Ryan Blaney ($10,400 – P14) in total speed rankings at 1.5-mile tracks. This #9 team was fast last season and will be fast this season and week again. Elliott will definitely be challenging Hamlin early on for the dominator points in this race.

Kyle Larson ($10,700)

Starting Position: 17th

Larson is a driver I want in the bulk of my lineups on Sunday and I think he may go overlooked and come in at low ownership in favor of drivers like Elliott, Harvick, Hamlin, and Kyle Busch. Over his career, Larson has been a threat to win at Homestead and he is now in the best equipment he has ever driven. Between 2015-2019 Larson had a top 5 car in each of those races according to the speed matrixes.

Kevin Harvick ($10,100)

Starting Position: 4th

Kevin Harvick has been one of the best drivers at Homestead over his career despite last season’s terrible performance here. Harvick’s race was marred by incidents between taking damage on pit road and a tire going down, putting him in the wall leading to a 26th place finish. In his six previous Homestead races at Homestead, Harvick finished top 5 in all six. Last season Harvick ranked in the top 5 in total speed at 1.5-mile tracks and high tire wear tracks. I would not be the least bit surprised to see the #4 Ford in victory lane on Sunday.

Denny Hamlin ($9,600)

Starting Position: 1st

Speaking of Hamlin, he is the defending winner of this race and will most definitely be in contention for the win again on Sunday. Hamlin had the best car in this race in 2020 and was led all the speed matrix for this race. I know Hamlin is on the pole so there is some danger in playing him but since 2013 Hamlin has only finished outside the top 10 once.

Other Options (In order of preference): Joey Logano ($9,300 – P2), Martin Truex Jr. ($11,400 – P9), Ryan Blaney ($10,400 – P14), Kyle Busch ($11,800 -P24): I expect Kyle to be semi-chalky, but unless he picks up some dominator points he probably won’t make value.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Tyler Reddick ($8,500)

Starting Position: 35th

Will Tyler Reddick be extreme chalk? Yes! Will Tyler Reddick be good chalk? Also, Yes! I will have a hard time fading Reddick on Sunday after how well he has performed here over his NASCAR career. I usually like to keep my exposure low when it comes to drivers that could push 60% ownership in GPP’s, but Reddick could be the top point driver on Sunday and not having him will make it difficult to get a takedown. Last season Reddick dominated the speed numbers in this race. Reddick was never lowered than 3rd on the speed chart, he ran the most fastest laps with 48, had an average run position of 3.9, and was fourth best in late run speed. Reddick is my underdog pick to win this race and make it 3 for 3 for first time winners in 2021.

Alex Bowman ($8,300)

Starting Position: 13th

Bowman is another driver who I think will be overlooked but could turn in a great DFS day. In his career Bowman has not been great at Homestead but last season he was one of the top 10 fastest cars until he had to make an unexpected pit stop late in the race that left him running too many laps late on worn tires. On 1.5-mile tracks last season, Bowman earned a victory at Auto Club Speedway, as well as averaging a 4.3 finish in the playoff races on similar tracks.

Austin Dillon ($7,700)

Starting Position: 22nd

Nobody was better in the mid-tier was better from a fantasy perspective at 1.5-mile tracks in 2020 than Austin Dillon. In 2020 Dillon ranked 13.1 at 1.5-mile tracks in speed rating, and was 9th fastest here last season. Dillon has been fast this season as well ranking 10th in both Daytona races in 2021. For his price on Sunday I really love the upside Dillon presents for a top 10 finish.

Other Options: Christopher Bell ($7,600 – P3) – NOBODY will play him from P3, good low owned GPP play, Kurt Busch ($8,100 – P5), Aric Almirola ($7,900 – P16), Bubba Wallace ($7,000 – P19), Matt DiBenedetto ($8,800 – P37) – I plan on fading uber chalk Matty D on Sunday, but I can definitely see why you’d want to roster him on Sunday.

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Cole Custer ($6,600) – P10: Custer has been off to a great start and last season Custer finished 12th at Darlington (most similar tire wear track)
2. Ryan Newman ($6,400) – P23: Newman is the picture of consistency at these tracks, he will finish mid-teens, guarantee it.
3. Erik Jones ($6,900) – P18th: Jones is probably not going to finish much higher than he starts, but Wallace did come 13th at Homestead last season in this car.
4. Chris Buescher ($6,300) – P12th: Buescher was a low 20’s-high teens driver at high tire wear tracks, he will probably finish in the same range on Sunday
5. Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($6,700) – P15: Stenhouse is a mid-teens-low 20’s driver at 1.5-mile tracks but does have top 10 upside.
6. Daniel Suarez ($5,700) – P21: Suarez and the 99 team have an RCR partnership so there is some upside there
7. Corey Lajoie ($5,400) – P25: Lajoie has Steve Letarte as crew chief this week which could be a step up and a possible top 20 finish
8. Anthony Alfred ($5,500) – P27: Alfredo’s Cup Series career hasn’t started off great, but I think things get a little better and he could pick up a top 20
9. James Davison ($4,900) – P29: Salary relief is the main reason to roster Davison, but a mid 20’s finish isn’t out of the question
10. Quin Houff ($5,100) – P38: Houff had an average finish of 32.2 at high tire wear tracks in 2020

Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up to date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial as well to make sure you are ready and have an understanding of how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

We are back at the Daytona Road Course for one last time this weekend with the Cup Series O’Reilly Auto Parts 253! This is another “short” race when it comes to lap count, but with the track being 3.61 miles it ends up being much longer than you’d think. Over the previous two races this weekend we saw that craziness can and will ensue at this track, less than we saw at the Daytona oval last week, but still some carnage albeit on a smaller scale.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,000)

Starting Position: 19th

Martin Truex Jr. is an elite road course racer and probably the best one in the series not named Chase Elliott. Truex was the best car at this race last season and was the fastest on track for 75% of the race, the only segment he wasn’t the fastest was when he was racing in traffic after taking a pit road speeding penalty at the end of stage 2. Truex finished 3rd here last season while leading 10 laps and is the last driver to win a road course race before Chase Elliott started his 4 race win streak at these tracks. Earlier this season at The Clash, Truex once again drove through the field with ease and was leading when he wrecked in the bus stop, ending his night.

Chase Elliott ($10,700)

Starting Position: 1st

Like I mentioned in my MTJ breakdown above, Elliott has owned road courses over the previous 2+ years in the Cup series. It’s been a while since Elliott didn’t end a road course in victory lane with 4 straight wins it was in Sonoma in 2019 that Truex beat Elliott out for the win. Now, I think Elliott dominates the first stage of this race and leads 40-50 laps of this race, but I can understand why a fade of the 2020 champion is something you’d consider if only building one lineup. Elliott’s upside is capped because of his starting position and the place differential upside of someone like a Truex is more appealing because he can win this race, lead 20+ laps and get a +18 PD.

Denny Hamlin ($9,800)

Starting Position: 4th

Hamlin seems to get lost in the shuffle some with the focus on Elliott and Truex for road course races, but Hamlin is plenty capable on these tracks as well.  Last year at the Daytona Road Course, Hamlin finished 2nd, won Stage 2, led 16 laps and had a 5th place average running position. Hamlin ranked as the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and he was 3rd in total speed. Because the focus will be on Elliott and Truex we could get Hamlin at lower than normal ownership. I will definitely have exposure to both Elliott and Truex, but I think Hamlin may be the driver I have the most exposure too.

Top Tier Driver Rankings:

1. Chase Elliott
2. Martin Truex Jr.
3. Denny Hamlin
4. Kyle Busch
5. Ryan Blaney – Elliott and Truex have combined to win 8 of the last 9 RC races, Blaney is the one driver to beat them both in that stretch.
6. Alex Bowman – I am really high on Alex and the 48 this week. He starts deep in the field (36th) and has finished between 8th and 14th in his last 4 of his last 5 road course races.
7. Joey Logano
8. Brad Keselowski
9. AJ Allmendinger – Yes, AJ is a great road course driver, but he doesn’t have the equipment needed to compete with the top guys in the Cup series. I will probably have him at 10-20% in my lineups just in case but he isn’t the top option he is in the Xfinity series.
10. Kevin Harvick – Harvick has seemingly spent more time in the Daytona grass than the pavement at recent races here.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

William Byron ($8,800)

Starting Position: 22nd

William Byron is a sneaky play, as usual, and is actually a very good road course driver. His price will keep his ownership low I believe and I plan to take advantage of that by having a lot of exposure to the #24 car. Over his last three road course races, Byron has an average finish of 6.6 and has not finished lower than 8th. Earlier this year at the Busch Clash, Byron lost a tire early in the race but recovered to finish 5th.

Chase Briscoe ($8,400)

Starting Position: 18th

Like I mentioned in the discord chat earlier this week, Briscoe was one of the best road course racers in the Xfinity Series last season. At this track in 2020, Briscoe led 26 laps, and was leading when he got caught up in a late wreck that led to him finishing 29th. Also last season at the Roval, Briscoe was leading with two laps to go, but had an incident due to the rain and finished 18th after leading 23 laps in that race. Briscoe isn’t a threat to win, but he could be a sneaky top 10 pick in this race on Sunday.

Kyle Larson ($8,300)

Starting Position: 8th

Might as well complete the Hendrick Motorsports foursome with Larson. This is the best equipment that Larson has ever driven and he already had great runs at road courses in less equipment. In 2018 at the Charlotte Roval (most similar track), Larson led 47 laps and was one of the best cars on the track all day but was collected up in a late race wreck which led to him finishing 25th. Larson had finishes of 8th, 10th, and 13th at the three road course races in 2019. Oh, and now Larson has access to Chase Elliott and his setup for road courses.

Christopher Bell ($7,700)

Starting Position: 12th

Bell had minimal success at road courses in 2020 in the #95 Leavine Family Racing Toyota, but now he is in the Joe Gibbs #20 and we know the Gibbs cars do well at road courses. Last year at this race Bell’s pit strategy came into play and sunk him leading to a 21st place finish. During this race though, Bell was the 9th best in total speed ranking, and was in 7th with 20 laps to go until he spun out by himself with 8 laps to go.

Other Options: Matt DiBenedetto ($8,100), Tyler Reddick ($7,500), Kurt Busch ($8,600), Aric Almirola ($7,900), Chris Buescher ($7,200), Erik Jones ($7,800)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Ty Dillon ($5,600) – P38 – Dillon has an average finish of 24.5 in his last 6 RC races, I will take that on Sunday at this price. Dillon is also WAYYYYY too cheap on FD ($2,500)
2. Michael McDowell ($6,800) – P2 – I know it’s hard to consider McDowell at this price, but he is a capable road course racer and is viable in LF GPP’s
3. Daniel Suarez ($5,700) – P35 – Suarez is an OK RC racer, a mid 20’s finish wouldn’t surprise me.
4. Ricky Stenhouse ($6,100) – P16 – Nobody will play him, and maybe he’s due. Stenhouse had a decent run at The Clash earlier this year so maybe he’s found something
5. Timmy Hill ($5,100) – This is Timmy’s third race this weekend, so he should know the track well. He starts dead last and is cheap.
6. Bubba Wallace ($6,300) – P10 – Starting a little too high, but he is in his best equipment ever and has the best team he’s ever had.
7. Ross Chastain ($6,100) – P9 – Chastain was a good road course racer in the Xfinity, but can he make it happen in the Cup Series? We will find out
8. James Davison ($5,200) – P39 – Price is higher than I’d want, but he does have high 20’s/early 30’s potential. If enough wrecks happen he could finish mid 20’s.
9. Scott Heckert ($4,800) P28 – Driving the #78 of BJ McLeod this weekend, Heckert is a road course ringer. I think he is cheap enough to take a shot, but not if you’re playing a single bullet lineup.

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