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NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Texas 10/17

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Ding Ding Ding, Round 3!

Sunday kicks off the third round of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs with only eight drivers remaining for the final four spots. Texas is a low-tire wear 1.5-mile track that usually runs clean. Last year at this race there were only four cautions for wrecks and only five cars that didn’t finish the race. This is a long race with 334 laps so we will want to get dominators in our lineups. My advice would be no less than 2 in any lineup, but at the same time, don’t try to unnecessarily try to fit more than 3 in and be stuck with three value drivers. This week the mid-tier is absolutely loaded in such a way that building one value driver lineups is entirely too easy.

There will be some chalky builds, but if things happen as they did on Saturday, the chalk will dominate, and you will need to just eat the good chalk. I will, of course, find those few plays with a big upside that won’t be as popular, but will also try to lead you away from the bad chalk.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier

Kyle Larson ($10,500)

Starting Position: 1st

I mean, come on, are you really surprised Larson is the top driver in this race? Well, if you’ve been here all season then you shouldn’t be at this point. When it comes to 1.5-mile track nobody has been better than Larson in 2021. When it comes to total speed rankings at 1.5-mile tracks nobody even comes close to Larson’s 2.57 avg rank. At 1.5-mile low tire wear tracks, yep you guessed it, Kyle Larson is tops there too (avg ranking of 2nd). I know Larson is going to be the highest owned driver, but listen, he’s going to score over 100 points on Sunday, win this race, and lead the most laps. Can you get a takedown on Sunday if you don’t roster Larson? Highly unlikely.

Kyle Busch ($9,800)

Starting Position: 3rd

Oh, look, another Kyle. Last season at this race, Kyle Busch dominated leading 90 laps on his way to his fourth career Texas victory. Since the start of the 2020 NASCAR playoffs, Kyle Busch has finished top 10 in nine of nine races at 1.5-mile low tire wear tracks. Busch also has the third-best total speed ranking at this track type in 2021. On Sunday, Busch has the potential to lead 90 laps again and finish top 3 in this race and he is severely underpriced for his upside.

William Byron ($9,600)

Starting Position: 12th

Byron has been one of the series’s best drivers at this track type in 2021. On the season, Byron ranks second behind Larson in total speed at low tire wear 1.5-mile tracks. The last time the series raced at this track type (Vegas #2), Byron was the fastest car but ran into some late-race carnage and ended up 18th one lap down. Byron will most likely be one of the lowest owned drivers in this race and could be a great pivot off Busch.

Other Options: Ryan Blaney ($9,500 – P4): Blaney has an avg finish of 6th at this type in 2021, but I would only play him on DK. Kevin Harvick ($10,900 – P24): Texas is one of Harvick’s best tracks, but I don’t think he can make value at this salary. He is a top ten threat but he isn’t a threat to lead too many laps. Chase Elliott ($10,100 – P6): Elliott has an avg finish of 4.8 at similar track types in 2021 and has finished top 8 in every race.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Kurt Busch ($8,700)

Starting Position: 17th

Kurt Busch is usually a solid driver at Texas Motorspeedway in his career. Since this track was repaved in 2017, Busch has finished between 7th and 9th in every race, and he is only one of two drivers to finish in the top 10 in all four races since 2019. Since Charlotte, Kurt Busch has an average finish of 4.3 at this track type. At Las Vegas (similar track type), Kurt Busch finished 8th.

Tyler Reddick ($7,700)

Starting Position: 9th

Here’s another driver that nobody ever wants to roster. Reddick is having the best year of his short career in 2021 and should be a top 10 contender again on Sunday. Over the last four races at 1.5-mile tracks, Reddick has finished between 6th and 9th in all four and has the third-best average finish (7th).

Brad Keselowski ($8,500)

Starting Position: 7th

Keselowski is another driver I expect to carry low ownership even the numbers dictate he should be highly owned. This season at this track type, Keselowski has finished 11th or better in all four races as well as having an average finish of 5.8. Keselowski also has an average running position of 8.2 in the same four races. At non-road courses in the playoffs this season Keselowski has an average finish of 7th. Basically what I’m saying is that Keselowski has fared well at this track and similar tracks like it in 2021 and should be considered for your lineups on Sunday.

Other Options: Christopher Bell ($8,300 – P11), Austin Dillon ($7,500 – P15): Dillon has finished 14th or better in each of the last 5 Texas races including a win here last summer. Ricky Stenhouse ($7,200 – P27): Stenhouse, like in most of his races, either wrecks or finishes in the top 16. Let’s hope for a top 16 on Sunday.

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Daniel Suarez ($6,900) – P19: Suarez is a fringe mid tier option at this price. In the last 6 races at 1.5-mile tracks in 2021, Suarez has finished 17th or better in five of them.
Bubba Wallace ($6,400) – P18: Wallace is almost a mirror image of Suarez this week in salary and starting position. In the last three races at this track type, Wallace has finished 14th (twice) and 16th. I believe we will see Wallace finish right around the top 15 again on Sunday.
Cole Custer ($6,200) – P20: At this race last season, Custer was able to finish 14th. Custe has not been outstanding at this track type in 2021, but he is cheap and has small place differetial upside.
Corey Lajoie ($5,700) – P29: Speaking of place differential upside, Lajoie is probably the safest bet for that on Sunday. Texas hasn’t been one of Lajoie’s best tracks, but he does have top 20 upside.
Anthony Alfredo ($5,600) – P28: Alfredo is pretty much a lock for a finish between 23rd and 27th. That is where he has finished at every 1.5-mile track in 20201. Alfredo is plenty cheap enough and seems safe on both sites.
BJ McLeod ($4,500) – P35: Love the salary and starting position. Remember though, there isn’t typically a lot of cars falling out of the Texas races so he might need some attrition to make value, but it can happen.

Thank you for reading my weekly NASCAR DFS Pit Stop articles and make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Texas 10/16

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Xfinity series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then, you know the drill, but welcome if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles. Since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

…And Then There Were Eight

There are only three races left until the Championship is handed out in Phoenix on November 6th. If one of the eight remaining drivers in the playoffs wins this race, they will book their ticket to the finale. We could see some reckless driving in the closing laps. Texas is a low-tire track, so I will be looking back at races this season from Las Vegas and Charlotte to see who ran well there.

One thing you won’t see in my article this week is the ridiculously high-priced Kaz Grala ($11,200). Normally when Grala is in a race and starting this far back (32nd) we would be all over him, but not this week. Grala isn’t in great equipment and the price is just too steep that I cannot see him making value. Since 2019, Grala has only raced at one 1.5-mile track, so with the lack of track time at this type, I don’t feel comfortable using him here as well.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier

Justin Allgaier ($10,200)

Starting Position: 6th

Earlier this season at Texas, Allgaier led 23 laps on his way to a second-place finish. Texas has been one of Allgaier’s better tracks since it was repaved in 2017. Since 2018 if you remove his two wrecks, Allgaier has three top 5 finishes and has finished 12th or better in five races. While he has never won a race at Texas, he is one of the best drivers at this track in the field on Saturday.

John Hunter Nemechek ($10,700)

Starting Position: 10th

Nemechek has run three career races here in Texas but none since 2019. In his three races here Nemechek has never finished lower than 9th and has two top 5 finishes as well. Nemechek will be in the #54 car for Joe Gibbs Racing on Saturday, far and away the best equipment he has been in any of his previous Texas races. With the way this car has run in 2021, I will say that JHN is my pick to win this race.

Harrison Burton ($9,900)

Starting Position: 8th

Harrison Burton won this race last season by leading 24 total laps. Earlier this season Burton did not fare well here as he finished 30th thanks to a crash with just five laps to go. Outside of that one poor finish, Burton has performed well. Looking back over this season at this track type, Burton has finished top 10 in all three races including a third-place finish at Charlotte.

As with every race in 2021 both AJ Allmendinger ($10,500 – P1) and Autin Cindric ($9,800 – P2) are great plays but are somewhat risky because of their starting position. I do prefer Cindric because of his lower salary.

Other Options: Justin Haley ($9,200 – P4), Brett Moffitt ($9,400 – P26), Noah Gragson ($9,600 – P5)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Daniel Hemric ($8,800)

Starting Position: 3rd

Will Daniel Hmeric ever get a win? Probably, but I’ve stopped trying to predict when that will happen. Hemric has been successful here at Texas since the repaving was down in 2017. In three races since then, Hemric has finished top 10 in all three, including two top 5’s, and has led laps in all three races including this season when he finished 4th and led 13 laps.

Ryan Sieg ($7,300)

Starting Position: 22nd

Sieg has been consistently around the top 10 every race (minus the two he had mechanical issues) since the repave was done in 2017. Since then, Sieg has had four finishes between 10th and 12th in five races, the outlier being an 18th place finish in the first race of 2018. Seig projects as a mid-teens driver for me with top 10 upside.

Brandon Brown ($7,900)

Starting Position: 18th

Brown has six career races at Texas and has only finished outside the top 20 one time (Fall race in 2019). In those six races, Brown has one top 5 and two top 10’s. Earlier this season here at Texas, Brown finished 13th which is about where I see him finishing again on Saturday.

Other Options: Jeb Burton ($8,400 – P13): Burton has three top 10’s and a top 5 in seven races at Texas, JJ Yeley ($7,400 – P33), Riley Herbst ($8,600 – P20)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Bayley Currey ($5,200) – P39: Currey didn’t even get one lap in here in the spring before his day was over because of an electrical issue. But, no need to worry he is not in that same car he is in a much better car on Saturday. Currey has been a high teens to low 20’s driver here in his career and while I am not sure he can achieve that a mid 20’s finish would do us just fine for this salary and starting position.
Tommy Joe Martins ($6,400) – P24: TJM has been another solid driver at Texas over his career. His one bad race was all the way back in 2014 before the repave so that doesn’t count. Since then he has a top 10 (this race in 2020) and has never finished lower than 21st. I look for Martins to be a high teens driver on Saturday.
David Starr ($4,900) – P36: Starr has been outstanding at Texas since 2018 (for a value tier driver). In the last seven races, Starr has five top 25 finishes including two top 20’s (20th and 13th). If we can get Starr in the top 25 he will smash value, be in the optimal, and potentially get someone a takedown. I see him more as a high 20’s driver, but with attrition he could easily pull off another top 25.
Dylan Lupton ($6,700) – P29: Lupton only has one relevant race at Texas and that was in 2018 where he finished 17th. This week though, Lupton is in much better equipment (Sam Hunt #26) and should be a threat for another top 20, maybe even top 15. My strategy is to play three top tier drivers, but if you want to be different and go with 2, Lupton is a grat mid/value fringe option on Saturday.
Ryan Vargas ($5,100) – P30: Vargas had a decent 24th place finish at Texas earlier this season, but he was in the 4 car, this week he is back in the #6. Last season at this race, Vargas drove the #6 to an 8th place finish. I do not expect a repeat performance but I do see Vargas finish top 20 on Saturday which would be great value for his salary.
Jesse Little ($5,400) – P34: Little had a rough day here in the spring and finished 29th because of mechanical issues. In 2020 though, Little had finishes of 14th and 15th here, allbeit in better equipment. I still think there is upside here with Little though for his price. I see him as a low to mid 20’s driver in this race, as long as his car holds up.
Jeremy Clements ($6,100) – P14: Clements is typically a safe play, even when he starts in the teens. Of course with any race, carnage can happen he occasionally gets caught up in it but Clements is a smart driver who tends to finish around where he starts. I think Clements is a mid to high teens driver with top 10 upside if things fall his way.

Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Charlotte Roval 10/10

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Elimimation Sunday from The Roval!

This Sunday is the last race of the second round of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs and only eight of the remaining 12 drivers can advance. Looking at what needs to happen, both Alex Bowman ($8,900) and William Byron ($9,700) must win to move on so their strategy will be different. Christopher Bell ($8,400) probably needs to win, but if it falls apart for one of the drivers ahead of him he could sneak in. Lastly, Kevin Harvick ($8,200) can get in if either Elliott or Kyle Busch falter, which is unlikely so it looks like Harvick may need Ryan Blaney to have a bad race which is more likely for Harvick to move on. I mention all this because some of these drivers will make different decisions when it comes to pitting to pick up stage points.

As for the race itself, there is a good chance we have some slight carnage on Sunday afternoon. NASCAR has decided to, smartly, remove the black and yellow bumps along the backstretch that caused a lot of problems on Saturday. This should lead to fewer cars getting torn up and leave us with a cleaner race.

The Elite (No, not Kenny Omega and the Young Bucks)

Three drivers are ELITE when it comes to road courses and I plan on having plenty of exposure to all three and will try to fit two of them in every lineup. If you are a NASCAR fan or have been here all season you know who I am talking about:

Kyle Larson ($10,300 – P10), Chase Elliott ($10,700 – P8), and Martin Truex Jr. ($10,100 – P5

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

AJ Allmendinger ($11,200)

Starting Position: 33rd

Do not adjust your screens, you are not reading the Xfinity Series article, Allmendinger is also the top play (outside of the Elite) on this slate as well. Elliott projects as the highest owned driver, but Allmendinger is right behind him (40% PO). Nobody on this slate has more upside and is as safe as Allmendinger. I know it is sort of a habit in DFS to fade chalk on occasion, but when you have a driver in NASCAR who will probably be the highest-scoring driver on the slate you cannot fade him. Allmendinger has won three straight Xfinity races at this track and that experience will undoubtedly help him get through the field on Sunday.

Ross Chastain ($9,300)

Starting Position: 23rd

Chastain has been solid at road courses since joining Chip Ganassi this season. While he does have two top 25’s here at The Roval, those were in much worse equipment, now that he’s in the 42 I expect a top 10 from Chastain on Sunday. If you remove his two poor finishes (wrecks) at Indy and Daytona RC, Chastain is averaging a 7.5 finishing position.

William Byron ($9,700)

Starting Position: 11th

Byron is coming into this race with back-to-back 6th place finishes at this track and will need more than that to move on. Now, Byron has not been great at road courses this season, but he does have the 7th best total speed ranking at this track type which tells me he has speed, bt has just run into some bad luck. I see Byron as a top 10 candidate this week if he can stay out of trouble.

Other Options: Kyle Busch ($9,900 – P9): Kyle has been an outstanding road course racer this season and projects at sub 20% ownership. Denny Hamlin ($9,500 – P1): Hamlin is racing stress-free and is good enough on this track type to lead some laps early.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Tyler Reddick ($7,800)

Starting Position: 29th

Reddick is going to be semi-popular (>30% PO) and with good reason. Not only does he offer up some big-time place differential upside, but Reddick also has been a good road course racer. Last year at this track Reddick finished 16th. This season at road courses, Reddick has an average finishing position of 17.5 with three top 10’s. I see Reddick as a top 15 driver with a top 10 upside.

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,900)

Starting Position: 30th

It is pretty much a 1 and 1a situation with Reddick DiBenedetto on Sunday. Both project for similar ownership and points. In the last three road course races this season, Matty D has finished between 5th and 11th and has the fourth-best average finish in the Cup Series (8.7). DiBenedetto is probably a lock for a top 15, and like Reddick has top 10 upside as well.

Chase Briscoe ($7,600)

Starting Position: 22nd

Briscoe is one of the top road course racers in the Cup Series and as he gains experience he could become elite. This is Briscoe’s first Cup Series run at the Roval, but not his first time here. Briscoe won the first Xfinity race here in 2018 and led 33 laps. In 2019, Briscoe led 21 laps and finished 9th, and in 2020 Briscoe should’ve won but after leading 23 laps he spun with two laps to go in the rain and finished 18th. This season in the Cup Series, Briscoe has an average finish of 16th and has three top 10’s at this track type.

Other Options: Kurt Busch ($8,700 – P13): Busch has an avg finish of 6.6 (minus COTA where he wrecked in the rain) on road courses in 2021. Justin Haley ($7,400 – P38), Joey Logano ($8,100 – P3)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Cole Custer ($5,700) – P23: Custer is an above average road coure racer and has a 9th place here last year. Custer has an avg finish of 21st, but that’s skewed because of his 36th finish at COTA, he does also have three top 20’s this seaosn at this track type.
Ryan Preece ($6,000) – P31: Preece is probably going to be the popular play in this tier, but not chalky (there is a difference). I expect to see Preece around 25-30% owned. In his two races at the Roval, Preece has an avg finish of 17.5.
Joey Hand ($6,200) – P36: Hand has never raced in a NASCAR event, but he is a road course ringer. Hand will be in the RWR #52 car, but this car will be prepped by Stewart-Haas so he should be somewhat competitive. I expect a mid twenties finish from Hand on Sunday.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($5,600) – P18: Stenhouse starts high this week, but he has been good at this track type in 2021. Stenhouse has an avg finish of 16.4 (minus Sonoma where he had engine issues) at road courses and has back to back 17th place finishes here.
Corey Lajoie ($5,500) – P26: Lajoie has finished top 24 in all but one road course race (Daytona) and if you take that out of the equation he has an avg finish of 19.8. Lajoie is a mid to low 20’s driver in my opinion on Sunday.
Scott Heckert ($5,900) – P35: This season Heckert has run two races on road courses in 2021 in the #78. Heckert has finished 26th and 28th in his two races.
Timmy Hill ($4,900) – P39: Hill starts last on Sunday, but he will be in the slowest car in the field. We know it can wild here at the Roval, so if he can stay on the track long enough he could pick up 3-5 spots and make value. Previously this season on this track type, Hill has finished 27th and 29th both of those would suffice for his salary.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Charlotte Roval 10/9

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles. Since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Roval Racing…in the Rain?

This weekend the Xfinity Series heads, well, home to Charlotte Motor Speedway but not to run on the 1.5-mile oval, but instead on the Roval! Last season AJ Allmendinger ($10,700) led 12 laps on his way to earning the win. This year there is plenty of reason to believe we will see the same outcome.

In 2020 only 27 cars finished this race with only 24 of those finishing on the lead lap. This track is typically a bit of a wreck fest, unlike most other road courses. We won’t see anything like with the Superspeedway races, but we can expect a few cautions on Saturday. Because this is a road course we only have 67 laps in this race which means once again we are not looking to focus on dominators, but instead we want place differential plays and drivers who will finish well as well.

One thing to remember about this race is that we ran here in the pouring rain in 2020 and with rain potentially in the forecast on Saturday again we could see another rain-soaked race. A lot of the teams did mention last week that they hoped it did rain, especially the teams that had success here last year.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier

Since this is a road course, Austin Cindric ($10,300 – P1) is in play and should be considered one of the elite plays on this slate. With Cindric starting from the pole he projects for sub 25% ownership. We can potentially get one of the best road course races in NASCAR low ownership, it’s kind of hard to pass that up.

AJ Allmendinger ($10,700)

Starting Position: 14th

As I mentioned in the open, Allmendinger won this race last season and is the favorite to do so again on Saturday. Allmendinger is two for two at the Roval winning both races that he has run here. Allmendinger is going to be extremely popular, but he has the most upside in this race for me so fading him is just something I can’t see doing, especially if you only play one lineup. There are so many good options in the lower price ranges that fading the probable highest scoring driver just doesn’t make much sense.

Noah Gragson ($10,000)

Starting Position: 10th

Gragson is one of the drivers who talked about wanting it to rain here this weekend and I can see why. Last season at the Roval, Gragson led 16 laps and finished 2nd to Allmendinger. In his first race at the Roval in 2019, Gragson finished 5th. Gragson has run 14 road course races in his Xfinity career since 2019 and he has an average finish of 11.6 with 11 top 10’s and seven top 5’s. There is plenty of value in this field to roster both Dinger and Gragson in your lineups and feel comfortable about it.

TY Dillon ($9,300)

Starting Position: 25th

Ty Dillon has not run a road course race in the Xfinity Series since 2017, but before that, he was very good. Between 2015 and 2017, Ty Dillon ran seven road course races and while he did not win a race, he did had five top 10’s and three top 5’s. Dillon had an average finish of 7.4 in those seven races as well. Ty Dillon has not raced in the Xfinity Series at the Charlotte Roval, but he has run three Cup races. Dillon has an average finish of 20th in those races and his best finish is 15th. I think Dillon has great upside and could be a good GPP pivot off the chalkier plays of Allmendinger and Cindric if you want to go that route.

Other Options: Daniel Hemric ($9,100 – P3), Ty Gibbs ($10,500 – P12): Expensive and projects to be popular but could also win this race and be the highest scoring driver.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Alex Labbe ($7,300)

Starting Position: 20th

Alex Labbe was a road course ringer when his Xfinity Series career started and he has since become a solid all-around driver, but road courses are still his bread and butter. Labbe has been nothing short of spectacular in his three races at the Roval. In each of his three races, Labbe has improved his finish in each race. Labbe finished 13th back in 2018, then earned a top 10 with a 6th place finish in 2019, and last year Labbe earned his first top 5 with a 4th place finish. The Roval is Labbe’s best road course on the circuit and I expect him to come home with his third straight top 10 here.

Josh Bilicki ($7,500)

Starting Position: 31st

Bilicki is a solid road course racer and will be in the 07 that is usually driven by Joe Graf Jr. In three previous races here at the Charlotte Roval, Bilicki has an average finish of 21st and finished 13th here last season. Bilicki is not a safe play by any means, but he starts far enough back to provide the place differential upside we need to make value at his salary.

Gray Gaulding ($7,600)

Starting Position: 39th

Gaulding is having a rough season, but one of the few bright spots for this team has been his finishes at road course races. In 2021, Gaulding has an average finish of 21.7 at this track type and had his best finish on the season of 13th at Mid-Ohio, the last road course he raced at. In his career at the Charlotte Roval, Gaulding has finishes of 29th and 28th.

Other Options: Austin Hill ($7,700 – P40), Preston Pardus ($7,800 – P37), Sam Mayer (8.700 – P15)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Kris Wright ($5,700) – P38: Wright is driving for BJ McLeod this weekend, has great PD upside, and has a good history at road course. Oh, and this is a Stewart-Haas Racing prepared car. How do you not love this car?
Landon Cassill ($6,600) – P35: Cassill is another good road course driver as his 19.7 avg finishing position at this track type this seaon would indicate. His worst finish at a road course in 2021 is 27th, but his best was at the Daytona RC, 12th. That track runs similar to the Roval.
Loris Hezemans ($5,100) – P34: Hezemans has only 3 Xfinity Series starts under his belt, and one was a road course in 2021. At Road America this season Hezemans finished 22nd. Like I keep hammering home this is another good place differential play.
Joe Graf Jr. ($4,800) – P30: Graf has not excelled at road courses in his career, but he did manage to navigate the carnage in the rain here last season and finished 15th (started P31). This season he has more experience and is in the #17 RWR car that we love to use each and every week. Could Graf pull out a magical run and finish top 10, maybe, but is a top a 15 more likely, definitely.
Kyle Weatherman ($4,700) – P24: Like with Graf there is some risk for a negative score, but the upside is too great here to pass up. Weatherman usually does well at road courses, and in the two he’s seen more than once he has avg finishes of 15.5 (Indy GP) and 16.5 (Daytona RC). Last season at the Roval, Weatherman got caught up in an early wreck, so I don’t count that but looking at his history at similar track types I expect a solid DFS points day out of Weatherman
Brandon Brown ($6,000)- P16: Brown won his first career race last weekend and you can’t dispute the confidence that gives driver. In his Xfinity career, Brown is an above average road course driver. Brown has a 19.7 avg finish in 14 races. I feel Brown is a low teens play this week.
Spencer Boyd ($4,500) – P33: Boyd is consistantly a mid 20’s driver when it comes to road courses. We won’t see Boyd pushing for the lead or a top 10 most likely, but a top 25 finish at his price will more that suffice to make value.

4 years ago 0 comments

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NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Talladega 10/3

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Weekend FInale from Talladega!

As expected Saturday’s doubleheader was full of big wrecks and plenty of cars hitting the junkyard. We did have two drivers getting their first career wins, which was not expected was great to see. Sunday will be much of the same, but I don’t expect to see a first-time winner, but you never know.

Looking back at how the spring Talladega race went we can expect plenty of cars coming from that back to finish with great days. In April only three drivers starting in the top 10 would finish there and nine drivers starting 21st or lower finished inside the top 20. While we will want to load up on drivers starting towards the rear getting 1-2 drivers starting towards the front will be a good idea. Looking back over the last nine races at Talladega no driver starting lower than 12th has won the race and the last time someone outside the top 20 has won was 2014 (Denny Hamlin – P34).

Even though we are looking for some drivers starting towards the front, we still aren’t chasing dominator points. In the first race this season here, 17 of 40 drivers led at least one lap and the driver with the most laps led (Hamlin – 43) finished 32nd.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Justin Haley ($9,400)

Starting Position: 38th

I expect Haley to be one of the highest-owned drivers, but there is a chance that he is good chalk. Haley will not be in his usually #77 Spire Chevy, but instead, he is in the Kaulig #16. Kaulig always has good cars in Superspeedway races in both Xfinity and Cup Series. Kaz Grala has driven this car the previous three Superspeedway races in 2021 and he wrecked twice but did finish 6th at Talladega. I expect Haley to have a similar day to Grala at Talladega on Sunday.

Aric Almirola ($9,200)

Starting Position: 20th

Aric Almirola and Superspeedways are a match made in heaven. Two of Almirola’s three career wins have come on Superspeedways. Almirola has also finished top 10 at Talladega in eight of his last ten races, but he did finish 15th here earlier this season. That finish was also when his team was still trying to figure things out, but recently the 10 team has been hitting on all cylinders with nine straight top 20 finishes.

William Byron ($9,800)

Starting Position: 10th

Byron is another driver who is becoming something of a Superspeedway whisperer. Over the last three Talladega races, Byron has an average finish of 5.7, a series-best, and has finished 11th or better in each race. Byron finished 2nd here earlier this season and 4th at this race last season. It may be a long shot, but I think Byron wins this race on Sunday.

Ryan Blaney ($10,700)

Starting Position: 4th

I like that DraftKings priced Blaney up for Sunday’s race, because of this his ownership should be extremely low. Blaney has been of the top Superspeedway drivers in the Cup Series for years now. Blaney won this race back in 2019 and then followed it up with a win in the spring race in 2020. At this race last year, Blaney got caught up in a late wreck, but he was back to his usual Superspeedway self with a 9th place finish.

Other Options: Denny Hamlin ($10,500 – P1), Kurt Busch ($10,000 – P14), Ross Chastain ($9,600 – P23)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Ryan Newman ($7,500)

Starting Position: 25th

I know, I know you guys don’t want to play Newman but at this salary on both sites and where he starts, he is a solid play. Newman may not be the driver he used to be, but at Superspeedways, he can still get it done. In his last five at Talladega, Newman has three finishes of 7th or better and finished 13th earlier this season here. In the last race at this track type, Newman finished 3rd at Daytona in August.

Chris Buescher ($7,400)

Starting Position: 24th

Buescher is one of the top Superspeedway drivers in the Cup Series and it is showing with his recent success at this track type. Before NASCAR penalized the 17 team at this race in 20202, Buescher had finished 6th, giving him back-to-back 6th place finishes. Buescher also ran well at Daytona in August where he finished 2nd. Buescher should be seen as a threat for a top 10 on Sunday.

Joey Logano ($7,900)

Starting Position: 8th

Joey Logano is a quality Superspeedway racer even though he hasn’t had the finishes to show for it. Earlier this season Logano did summersaults through the backstretch. Before this poor three-race stretch, Logano had five great races at Talladega where he averaged a 5th place finish. During this five-race stretch, Logano finished no worse than 11th, had one win, and had four top 5’s.

https://youtu.be/y28eIrg7x3g

Other Options: Landon Cassill ($7,200 – P40), Austin Dillon ($7,100 – P16)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Ryan Preece ($6,700) – P27: Preece projects as the highest scoring driver on this slate. At first glance that seems odd, but when you look at his history at Talladega I can see why. In his five career races here, Preece has never finished lower than 18th and finished 10th at this race last fall.
Erik Jones ($6,500) – P26: Jones traditionally does well at this track type. Earlier this season he was running top 10 when he was caught up in a last lap wreck taking him down to 27th. In two races here in 2020 Jones had two top 5 finishes. In August at Daytona, Jones finished 11th.
Ricky Stenhouse ($6,000) – P21: Stenhouse is one of the top Superspeedway racers in NASCAR. Yes, he may race too hard and that does result in his getting caught up or causing wrecks, but he also has had plenty of success at this track type. Stenhouse has wrecked in the last two Dega races, but prior to that he has three top 5’s and four top 10’s in five races.
Cole Custer ($6,800) – P28: Custer has finished 11th and 10th in the last two Superspeedway races this season. Custer is really only a play on DraftKings, his price is just unreasonably high in FanDuel
Bubba Wallace ($5,900) – P19: Wallace has 7 races at Talladega and if take out the two times he’s wrecked, his average finish is 18.4. As we’ve seen Wallace has been running much better and at Daytona in August he finished 2nd. Wallace is only playable on DK since FD’s algorithm is broken and priced him up like Kyle Larson on a 1.5 mile track.
Tyler Reddick ($6,400) – P13: Reddick is an under the radar top SS driver all of a sudden and he has back-to-back 7th place finishes at Talladega. If Reddick can manage another top 10 finish, he should make value at this price, on both sites.
Corey Lajoie ($6,900) – P29: Lajoie is a low 20’s driver at Superspeedways. Over his last five Talladega races, Lajoie has four finishes of 22nd or better.
Chase Briscoe ($5,600) – P17: Briscoe showed out well in his first Cup Series trip to Talladega with an 11th place finish. As the season has progressed, Briscoe has become more comfortable with his new car and team and I expect another top 15 from Briscoe with top 10 upside.

Lastly, if you want to employ our full #StacktheBack strategy there are a few of the real cheap guys that you can run. All of BJ McLeod ($4,700 – P32), Garrett Smithley ($5,200 – P37), Quin Houff ($4,500 – P35), Joey Gase ($4,900 – P36), and James Davison ($5,500 – P39) offer up some huge upside if this turns into something similar to what we saw happen in the Truck Series where more than half the field wrecked out.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Talladega 10/2

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles. Since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Can we run this race to the end dry?

Earlier this season at Talladega the Xfinity Series race was shortened by rain and saw Jeb Burton ($10,600 – P14) earn his first win in one of NASCAR top touring series. Luckily the weather looks clear for this race and we should get the full 113 laps unless the sun sets early (insert face palm emoji). Much like with the Truck Series race earlier in the day and the Cup Series on Sunday we will be focusing on loading up on drivers starting towards the rear, or as the hashtag says, #StacktheBack!

Unlike the Truck Series, we don’t have a projected +50% owned driver, which is nice. There is a more balanced field in this race and more paths to an optimal build. Like I do every week, I ran the optimizer with multiple settings to see what builds might be popular and many builds leave between $2K and $5K on the table which is what I expected. Pricing for this race isn’t as top-heavy as with the trucks. We have a much better selection of drivers to use in the $7K range. Also, the value section is better for this race with better options so we don’t have to go too deep in a player pool down there. I will be leaving some salary on the table for my builds, probably around $1-2.5K but I will probably have a max salary build as well.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier

Kaulig Racing

Jeb Burton ($10,600 – P14)

AJ Allmendinger ($10,400 – P5)

Justin Haley ($10,200 – P8)

Kaulig has dominated Superspeedway racing in recent years in the Xfinity Series, especially Talladega. This team has won three straight Talladega races, Chevrolets have also won 6 straight and 7 of 8 races. It is hard to bet against these guys when it seems like Kaulig has mastered the Superspeedway program. My preferred pick is Burton, but Haley swept both races here in 2020 so he would be the next best play. Allmendinger will have the lowest ownership because he starts in the top 5 and is the riskiest play.

John Hunter Nemechek ($10,000)

Starting Position: 11th

Nemechek is in the #54 Joe Gibbs Toyota this weekend and should be a threat to win this race. After running the Truck Series earlier in the day, JHN will hop into the JGR car and look to potentially sweep these races. Nemechek hasn’t raced here in an Xfinity car since 2019, but in his two Talladega races, he has finishes of 6th and 7th. If he can keep this car clean he should be a threat to go to victory lane.

Other Options: Noah Grason ($9,800 – P4), Daniel Hemric ($9,400 – P6)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

JJ Yeley ($8,100)

Starting Position: 38th

Yeley is underpriced for his upside and skill at this track. With him being underpriced, I would expect the ownership to be massive, but with people potentially paying up for the Kaulig drivers they may not be able to afford Yeley. In his last five races at Talladega, Yeley has finished between 4th and 11th four times with 22nd being his lowest finish (which would make value on Saturday). I love Yeley on Saturday and will be overweight on him for sure.

Garrett Smithley ($7,300)

Starting Position: 35th

Smithley is something of a Talladega Xfinity Series expert. In his five races here, Smithely has never finished lower than 21st and has finished 12th or better in the other four. Smithley finished 8th in this race last year but this season he is in much better equipment. At the last Superspeedway race (August – Daytona), JJ Yeley drove this #17 car to a 13th place finish. I see Smithley as a top 20 driver with top 10 upside based on attrition.

Alex Labbe ($7,500 – P32), Santino Ferrucci ($7,700 – P33)

I tried to pick one of these two drivers to write up but could not separate them. Both Labbe and Ferrucci give you equal upside and ownership projections at practically the same salary. The only difference between the two is that Ferrucci has never raced on a Superspeedway in the Xfinity Series and Labbe has excelled at them. Ferrucci has been good at all other tracks and has run well on larger tracks in the IndyCar Series so I expect he will fare well here. Labbe has top 10’s in two of his last three Talladega races and has never finished lower than 25th.

Other Options: Jordan Anderson ($7,000 – P29), Jason White ($7,200 – P34)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Caesar Bacarella ($6,400) – P37: Bacarella was excellent at Talladega in 2020 finishing 17th and then 13th. Earlier this season he wrecked with 6 to go and finished 38th. I look at the race earlier this year as a fluke and will roll out plenty of Bacarella in my lineups this weekend
Brandon Brown ($6,600) – P19: I expect Brown to be wildly underowned on Saturday with him starting from P19 and plan on taking advantage of this. Brown is one of the top SS drivers in this series and has improved his finish every race here. Since 2019, when he finished 15th, Brown has improved to the point that he comes in with back-to-back top 10 fnishes at Talladega.
David Starr ($4,700) – P28: “You done messed up, A-a-ron”. Starr is a superb Superspeedway racer and DraftKings showed him zero respect with this salary. The man has five finishes of 18th or better in his las six races at Talladega. Add in his finishes at Daytona where he has five straight top 20’s including a top 5 if you take out his two wrecks and this is just too easy. Play Starr on Saturday at 15% ownership.
Ryan Sieg ($6,900) – P17: Sieg is another driver, like Brown, who has improved as he gains experience at Superspeedways. In his last two races at Dega, Seig has back-to-back top 5 finishes, including a 2nd place finish here last season. Sieg will potentially be under 20% and could be the difference in a GPP.
Joey Gase ($6,100) – P39: Gase has not done well recently at Talladega, BUT he hasn’t been in good cars. His best results came in the mid 2010’s when he was driving the car he is in on Saturday. Gase has a top 5 and two other finishes of 11th and 16th in four races in the #52.
Joe Graf Jr. ($6,100) – P40: For a driver starting last, Graf doesn’t project to be that highly owned, but there’s good reason. In his three races here he’s never finished higher than 31st. Now if you are playing cash (WHY?!) he is a lock because there is no safer play on the slate, but for GPP’s there are better options.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series Talladega 10/2

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Truck series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then, you know the drill, but welcome if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Welcome to Demolition Derby Weekend!

#StackTheBack is making a return this weekend as all three series compete at Talladega Superspeedway! For those of you new to NASCAR this track is its own animal (well Dega and Daytona). This is not a track you can get away with running a lineup of drivers starting towards the front. This is also a track where we do not chase dominator points, it is solely a place we look for place differential points. There is a chance that you can get a race where everyone plays nice and stays in line, but this is a playoff race and a spot in the Championship 4 is on the line. These drivers will not take it easy and will be pushing for that win late in the race, which is why we stack the back.

Mitigating the Damage:

Inevitably we will see a lot of upside-down red cars on our lineups if we don’t pick carefully. With only 94 laps in this race, there are not enough dominator points to risk using the pole sitter, in fact, Ben Rhodes ($7,200) projects bottom five in projected points. Last season at this race four drivers starting 25th or lower finished in the top ten, and six started 15th or lower including race winner Raphael Lessard (15th).

As with every week, each tier of drivers is listed in order of preference

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier

Parker Kligerman ($10,900)

Starting Position: 37th

Kligerman projects as the highest-scoring driver in this race and I can’t really argue with that. It has been a few years since Kligerman has raced in the Truck Series at Talladega, but when he does he usually performs at his best. In five career races here, Kligermanhas two wins and three top 5’s. Kligerman either finishes top 5 or he wrecks. Kligerman is expensive, but we have plenty of cheap options so it won’t be difficult to fit Kligerman in. If there is something close to a lock in this race, Kligerman appears to be that.

Tyler Ankrum ($10,500)

Starting Position: 27th

Ankrum has the best equipment of any driver starting towards the back (20th or lower) and if this race shakes out without many wrecks he can be counted on for a decent finish. In just two races here, Ankrum has finishes of 7th (2019) and 16th (2020). Neither finish is spectacular, but it shows that Ankrum can avoid the big one and keep his truck clean (albeit a small sample size).

Grant Enfinger ($9,100)

Starting Position: 17th

Enfinger is that kind of no man’s land of starting positions this week. Normally starting 17th would make Enfinger extreme chalk, but this week he could fly under the radar. Enfinger is back in the #98 where he has fared extremely well this season. Looking at Enfinger’s history here at Talladega, he has only wrecked once in seven races, he has one win here, three top 10’s and has finished 19th or better in his last 6 races. I believe Enfinger finishes top 10 this week again here.

Jordan Anderson ($10,100)

Starting Position: 31st

Whether it be by skill or pure luck, Jordan Anderson has finished all four of the races he has run at Talladega in his Truck Series career. Anderson finished 6th in this race last season and based on track history his high price is warranted. Looking over Anderson’s career on Superspeeday’s you will see that he is at his best at these types of tracks. Anderson has two top 5’s (Both 2nd place finishes) and five top 10’s in nine career Superspeedway races. I trust Anderson as much as any driver in this field on Saturday to come home clean with a big DFS points day.

Other Options: Sheldon Creed ($9,500 – P9), John Hunter Nemechek ($9,300 – P7)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Lawless Alan ($8,100)

Starting Position: 36th

You know it’s a crazy race when I am actually writing up Lawless Alan at this price, but this is where we are at. Alan has no experience at Superspeedways, but maybe that’s a good thing. To be completely honest, this is a pure place differential and ownership play. I believe people will pay for the three $10K plus drivers and not be able to get anyone in the mid tier this week. Lawless is in good equipment, not great, but good enough for a top 25 if he can avoid the carnage.

Clay Greenfield ($8,200)

Starting Position: 32nd

Greendfield is very hot and cold at Talladega over his eight races here. We have seen Greenfield wreck (3 times) and finish in the low 30’s. We have also seen him run great races and finish 16th or better four times. Greenfield is expensive, but he offers upside at price some most might not want to pay.

Cory Roper ($7,000)

Starting Position: 31st

Roper would be the top ranked driver in this price tier, but he will most likely be popular because his price is affordable. I do think Roper is one of the best FPTS/$ plays on this slate though. Roper has a good history at Daytona, but has never raced at Talladega before. In his three Daytona races, Roper only wrecked once and still finished 20th. In his other two races at Daytona, Roper has finishes of 14th and 3rd.

Other Options: Jack Wood ($8,800 – P24), Tanner Gray ($7,600 – P22), Hailie Deegan ($8,600 – P26)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier

Norm Benning ($5,900) – P39: Benning starts 39th which is next to last in this field and actually has some really good results in his career at Talladega. In his last five races here, Benning has finished 22nd or better in four of those races.
Codie Rohrbaugh ($5,700) – P29: Rohrbaugh is a solid driver in a good truck. There are drivers who are starting further back around his price, but Rohrbaugh is in a better truck.
Bryan Dauzat ($6,400) – P40: Dauzat starts dead last, that’s it, there isn’t much more to write than that. If he can keep his truck on the track long enough to pick up 8-10 spots after a big one he makes value, but that’s a big if.
Keith McGee ($4,700) – P38: McGee has two things going for him: He’s cheap and starts at the back. Luckily those are the only two things that truly matter at Talladega.
Jason White ($4,900) – P35: White has two top 10’s in his last three races at Talladega. Unfortunately these races were nearly 10+ years ago.
Jennifer Jo Cobb ($4,500) – P33: This one’s for you Brian! I will never play Cobb, unless it’s a Superspeedway. Cobb has finished 27th or better in seven of her nine races here, she even has an 11th place finish here in 2018. Risky, but she has paid off of late here.
Willie Allen ($6,000) – P30: Allen is in a good truck that we have seen both Josh Berry and Bretty Moffitt run to quality finishes. I don’t think Allen is on the level of those two, but he could definitely find his way to a top 20 eith attrition.
Dylan Lupton ($6,300) – P25: Lupton is in a truck that when driven by a quality driver can run well. Last week Lupton drove to a 21st place finish, 3rd best finish on the season for the #34.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Las Vegas 9/26

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Gambling in Las Vegas with the Cup Series!

This week the Cup Series begins round 2 of the playoffs at the high speed 1.5 -mile Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Earlier this season, unsurprisingly, Kyle Larson ($11,100) lead 103 laps on his way to victory lane. No other driver led more than 47 laps in that race (Denny Hamlin).

In contrast to what we saw in the Truck and Xfinity Series, Vegas is typically a clean track without much destruction. In March, we only saw two cars wreck out of this race and only two cautions for wrecks. With only 267 laps we don’t need to hunt for dominator points in this race. If you have been with me all weekend I am sure you’re sick of reading about this but it’s true. There aren’t enough laps to focus on finding lap leaders, but instead we want to look for drivers who have place differential potential and who can finish high up in the field.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kyle Larson ($11,100)

Starting Position: 1st

There is an exception to my place differential rule, and that is Kyle Larson. This season Larson has been the most consistent and best driver in the Cup Series. Larson dominated the spring race here in Las Vegas and I believe he will do that again on Sunday night. Since 2017 (7 races), Larson has had four top 5’s and six top 10’s as well as the win earlier this year. Larson should be in your lineup on Sunday night. I won’t say he’s a must-play, but I will probably have 80-90% exposure to him.

Denny Hamlin ($10,500)

Starting Position: 6th

Hamlin is one of the better place differential plays in this tier potentially. I know it seems like he offers very little in that department, but a +5 could be the difference you need. After a stretch of poor finishes here, Hamlin has finished 3rd and 4th in the previous two Vegas races. Over the last five races, Hamlin has been 1st or 2nd in total speed rankings in four of those races (Daytona).

Chase Elliott ($10,200)

Starting Position: 11th

Elliott has had poor finishes here recently, but they are without incident. Earlier this season at Las Vegas, Elliott finished 13th but that does not tell the story. Long story short, Elliott had multiple pit road issues and a spin on lap 169 that should have had him finishing much worse than 13th. Over Elliott’s last four races at similar tracks, he has an average finishing position of 5.5 and the third-best driver rating.

Ryan Blaney ($9,100)

Starting Position: 2nd

Nobody is going to play Blaney on Sunday, well nobody except for us. I believe people will be scared off by the starting position and not look into how good Blaney is at this track type. Blaney has run ten races at Vegas and has four top 5’s and seven top 10’s. Blaney has been consistently good at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks this season and I expect that to continue on Sunday.

Other Option: Kurt Busch ($9,500 – P20): Home track advantage for the older Busch brother? Maybe, but either way there is some great PD upside with Kurt here. Kyle Busch ($10,800 – P9): Busch is at his home track but it’s been since 2009 that he’s won here. I think Busch comes in around 20% ownership and should be a top 5 contender. Joey Logano ($9,900 – P9)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Chris Buescher ($7,300)

Starting Position: 25th

Las Vegas is one of Buescher’s better tracks, especially since joining Roush. In three races in the 17, Buescher has finishes of 14th, 9th, and 14th. All three are better than he has ever finished prior to joining Roush. Last season at this race was Buescher’s best finish (9th) and he has two 8th place finishes at similar track type this season. Buescher is a potential top ten candidate on Sunday night.

Richard Childress Racing

Tyler Reddick ($7,800 – P13)

Austin Dillon ($8,100 – P15)

Both of the RCR cars have been good at this track type all season. Tyler Reddick has not been good at Vegas at all but this season he has performed well at tracks that he never has all year. At the last three 1.5-mile tracks Reddick has finishes of 6th, 7th, and 9th. I look for Reddick to be a low owned top 10 car on Sunday night

As for Reddick’s teammate, Austin Dillon has had more success at Vegas and also has success at 1.5-mile tracks this season. At this track type, Dillon has finished 12th or better at EVERY race, has an average finish of 9.7, and has the 10th best total speed ranking. Dillon has also finished 13th or better in five of his last seven races here dating back to 2018.

Alex Bowman ($8,300)

Starting Position: 7th

Both Las Vegas and high-speed intermediate tracks have been Bowman’s bread and butter lately. This year’s poor finish (28th) was deceiving. Bowman was running 9th with 16 laps to go when he had a tire go down on him and couple that with a commitment cone violation and you get a 28th place finish. Bowman has the 5th best speed ranking at this track type in 2021 and has been between 3rd and 7th five times in those seven races. Last year at this race Bowman came home 5th and on Sunday I will expect Bowman to replicate that finish.

Other Options: Brad Keselowski ($8,700 – P8): Eight top 5’s in his last 12 races here including 3 wins and a 2nd place finish this season, Matt DiBenedetto ($8,200 – P14), Ross Chastain ($7,900 – P18)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Chase Briscoe ($6,000) – P19: Briscoe has been clicking off good finishes since July. During this span of races the Cup Series visited two similar tracks and Briscoe finished 11th (Michigan) and 15th (Atlanta).
Ryan Preece ($6,300) – P24: Preece has back to back top 20 finishes here at Vegas and I expect that trend to contiue. Over his last five races Preece’s avg finishing position is 16th. I look for Preece to be a high teens driver on Sunday night
Ricky Stenhouse ($6,800) – P22: Stenhouse has performed well at this track type in 2021. If you take out the races where he wrecked, Stenhouse has an avg finish of 12th and has finished between 11th and 13th in each of those races.
Bubba Wallace ($6,700) – P21: Wallace has not had much luck in Vegas, at least on the track not sure how he does in the casinos. All those bad finishes came in lower tier equipment though. In three of the last five races at this track type Wallace has finished between 14th and 16th.
Michael McDowell ($5,900) – P23: In the first Vegas race this season, McDowell had his best ever race here. McDowell finished 17th and had an avg running position of 17.9. I don’t expect much from the 34 car on Sunday, but a top 20 would suffice to make value.
Corey Lajoie ($6,200) – P27: It was Lajoie’s birthday on Saturday, so maybe his birthday luck rolls over to Sunday? We don’t need huge salary savings this week, so I am not concerend with Lajoie’s salary but he is the second best sub $6.5K driver this week for me.
Anthony Alfredo ($5,700) – P32: Alfredo has actually performed really well at 1.5-mile tracks this season. In six races at similar tracks, Alfredo has finished between 23rd and 27th in all six. In the first Vegas race he finished 24th and had a 22.5 avg running position.
Justin Haley ($5,600) – P33: Haley ran well in the Xfinity Series on Friday night, not that his Cup Series car is anywhere as good as his Xfinity car. Haley has an avg finish of 28.1 at this track type this season.
BJ McLeod ($5,300) – P34: McLeod is a safe driver and is great at avoiding wrecks. If we have a similar race to the two lower series than McLeod could pull out a top 25. My best guess for him is a low 30’s finish though.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Las Vegas 9/25

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles. Since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Playoff Opener From Vegas!

This week the Xfinity Series joins the Trucks and Cup Series in the playoffs. Vegas is the playoff opener for the series and it will be the “easiest” and “safest” track with Talladega and the Charlotte Roval to follow.

Earlier this season we saw AJ Allmendinger ($9,800) win here at Las Vegas and led 44 laps. We saw the top four drivers in laps led in that race finished 1-4, which is not a surprise considering they are four of the best this series has.

Like with the Truck Series race on Friday night, we are looking to find some good place differential plays mixed with our 1-2 dominators. We have some amazing place differential plays in the mid-tier for this race which makes it easier to focus on the dominators from the top tier. I found it pretty simple to build lineups for this race, and hopefully, I can help you build as easily as I did.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

AJ Allmendinger ($9,800)

Starting Position: 2nd

As you saw in the open, Allmendinger was top 4 in laps led at the first Vegas race while winning. Allmendinger also led over 50 laps at Michigan (similar track type) on his way to victory there. We saw Dinger wreck his way through the finish line at Bristol to win the regular season championship. AJ is coming into the playoffs hot and will be a threat to win this race and sweep Las Vegas

Noah Gragson ($10,700)

Starting Position: 9th

Like Dorothy said in “The Wizard of Oz”, there’s no place like home. For Noah Gragson that rings true as he loves racing at his home track here in Las Vegas. Gragson has five career races run in the Xfinity Series here and his worst finish is 6th. In his 5 races here, Gragson has finished 2nd-6th but has only led 2 laps. I think Gragson can lead here, which I think he will need to do to make value. Gragson is a GPP play in my opinion with his salary as high as it is.

Josh Berry ($10,400)

Starting Position: 15th

Berry is back in the JRM #1 car for injured Michael Annett on Saturday and will look to replicate his performance when he was in the #8 earlier this season. Back in March, Berry finished 7th here in Vegas and I am sure he’d love to improve that finish. Berry also ran well at Michigan a few weeks ago where he finished 4th and led 24 laps in this same car.

Quick Hits:

Ty Gibbs ($11,000) – P6: Gibbs won at Charlotte earlier this season, another similar track to Vegas. With how well he has performed it’s hard to doubt the teenager will be a threat on Saturday.

Austin Cindric ($10,200) – P1: Cindric sits on the pole on Saturday and has three straight finishes of 6th or better here while leading 92 laps.

Daniel Hemric ($9,600) – P7: I saw it every week it seems now, but is this the week Hemric finally gets his win? I don’t know, but he did lead the most laps here in the spring and a top 5 is likely again.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

I have two groups of drivers that I like in this tier for Saturday and they are both at similar price points.

JJ Yeley ($7,600) – P33

BJ McLeod ($7,500) – P39

Landon Cassill ($7,300) – P37

All three of these drivers offer up amazing place differential and all have shown the ability to run inside the top 25 at times this season.

Yeley will be in the #17, a car that he has had success in this season. In eight races this season in this car, Yeley has seven top 25 finishes and has four top 15 finishes.

McLeod has run Vegas eight times in the Xfinity Series and except for one race in 2020 and 2017 when he had issues, he has been great here all things considered. In those other three races, McLeod has finished between 19th and 27th.

Landon Cassill had a good day here in the Spring when he finished 21st. Cassill has run six Xfinity races at Las Vegas in his career and has run well here. If you remove the two finishes when Cassill was running the Morgan Sheppard car that always started and parked, he has finished between 14th and 21st in all four races.

If you want to go with 2 dominators, which is a build I will be using, you can mix and match these next three drivers with the three above.

Ty Dillon ($8,600) – P28

Brett Moffitt ($8,400) – P27

Ryan Sieg ($7,700) – P20

This will be Dillon’s first race in the 31 car, but he comes into this race with five straight top 15 finishes, including two top 10’s. Dillon will probably float around 20% ownership making him viable for SE or GPP.

Brett Moffitt got caught up late in the race here earlier this season so his finish is not evidence of how well he was running. In his previous two races here last season, Moffitt finished 14th ad 15th.

Ryan Sieg may be the most interesting play in this tier on Saturday night. Sieg has three finishes of 6th or better in his last five, but he also has two wrecks in that same span. It seems like Sieg either shines or drowns here making him an ideal GPP play.

Other Options: Jeb Burton ($8,100 – P14), Brandon Brown ($7,000 – P16)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Ryan Vargas ($5,300) – P31: Vargas is having a good year, and typically gets overlooked. I think a top 25 is in the cards for Vargas, especially since he finished 23rd here earlier in 2021
Alex Labbe ($5,500) – P17: Labbe has three straight top 20’s, including a 10th place finish at Darlinton. Earlier this season at Charlotte, Labbe finished 7th.
Josh Williams ($6,800) – P18: Williams has never finished lower than 21st at Vegas and is a riding a 5 race streak of top 18 finishes. I think people see the price and starting positiong and back off Williams today, but not me.
Bayley Currey ($6,100) – P36: Currey has three top 25 finishes in four career races here at Vegas. Starting from P36, Currey offers some good upside for cheap.
David Starr ($5,400) – P38: Starr is another cheap high upside play in this tier. In his last four races here, Starr has finished top 30 in all four and has finishes of 19th-26th in three.
Dylan Lupton ($5,800) – P25: Lupton is hoping into the Sam Hunt Racing car on Saturday. This is Lupton’s first Xfintiy race on Saturday and he is in a really good car that probably has KBM funding.
Joe Graf Jr. ($4,600) – P21: Graf is a risky play, but he will probably carry around 5% ownership. Earlier this season, Graf finished 18th here in Vegas.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series Las Vegas 9/24

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Viva Las Vegas!

It’s time for round two of the NASCAR Truck Series playoffs. Las Vegas kicks off the next round of the playoffs with 8 remaining drivers fighting for 1 of 4 spots in the finale in Phoenix in November.

There are two front runners for the title and they will both be featured in the article for Friday. This week we are not focused on hunting for dominator points with only 134 laps as opposed to the 250 we had last week. Place differential and finishing position are key this week. We only had five drivers lead laps earlier this season in Vegas with only one driver leading more than 16. There were seven total cautions (not including stage breaks) back in March with six of those happening after lap 70.

Lastly, I want to state that the value tier is gross this week. For me, balanced builds are the way to go. I think I have enough plays in the top two tiers that you shouldn’t need more than 1 or 2 value drivers to build lineups this week.

As with every week, each tier of drivers is listed in order of preference

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

*Sheldon Creed ($**10,600)*

Starting Position: 9th

Creed dominated the first round of the playoffs winning two of three races (should have won all three) and led more laps than any other driver. This week Creed is expected to once again be chalky but he is as close to a must-play as there is for me. Earlier this season, Creed had some late-race issues and finished 18th, but prior to that race, Creed had four top 10’s in four races. Creed has never won at Vegas but I think that ends on Friday and the 2 truck grabs the checkers.

John Hunter Nemechek ($10,400)

Starting Position: 1st

Nemechek is once again on the pole, his 6th on the season, but that won’t deter us from rostering him. Earlier in 2021 here Nemechek left with the win and led 94 laps. Nemechek is the driver who I want to use to collect the dominator points from this tier. Creed should pick up some dominator points, but he is the place differential play from the top tier.

Austin Hill ($9,800)

Starting Position: 10th

If Creed and Nemechek are the popular plays, Austin Hill seems to be the guy who will fly under the radar. Hill had a rough first round and was eliminated. After a dismal showing, Hill will want to show that it was a fluke and his team is better than that. If there was a track where Hill could show that it has to be Vegas. Nobody has been better there since this race in 2019 than Hill. In those four races, Hill has won two of them and finished third in the other two. Hill led 68 laps in the two races he won here, but none in the two he didn’t. That’s ok though because at this price Hill can make good value with just a top 3 finish again. Hill is my low-owned sleeper play pick for this tier.

Ben Rhodes ($9,200)

Starting Position: 7th

Rhodes has been good at Vegas in his career, and I expect that to continue on Friday. Earlier this season, Rhodes finished 10th, his sixth in nine races here. Rhodes has three top 10’s in the last four races here and should contend for a top 5 as he will look to earn his spot in the final four.

Other Options: Tyler Ankrum ($9,400 – P16), Todd Gilliland ($9,600 – P8)

Grant Enfinger (10,000 – P23) is a driver I expect to be very popular, but I don’t have any interest. This is a situation where you need to look at what truck a driver is in. Enfinger isn’t in the 98 this week (more on that soon), but instead is in the #9. In this lesser equipment, Enfinger only has two top 10’s in 7 races as opposed to finishing no worse than 11th in 10 races in the 98. He is a safe play, but for his salary, his upside is limited in this truck.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Christian Eckes ($7,300)

Starting Position: 15th

The DraftKings algorithm should be imprisoned for what they did to Eckes this week. But, even though his price is criminally low, I think he kind of flies under the radar in ownership. Eckes is in the 98 for ThorSport this week and he has been outstanding in the truck in 2021. If you take out the two races he crashed in, Eckes has an average finish of 9.8 in six races and has three top 10’s. Eckes is far and away my favorite play in this tier and I may go crazy and have 100% Eckes this week.

Matt Crafton ($8,800)

Starting Position: 6th

When you go back and look at Matt Crafton’s history in Las Vegas it is incredible. Dating back to 2008 (17 races), Crafton has ten, yes TEN, top 5’s and has only finished outside the top 10 two times, both times he wrecked. Crafton has never won here, but you can’t deny his incredible history here and with how well he has run in 2021 I cannot see him finishing lower than his starting position on Friday.

Tanner Gray ($7,700)

Starting Position: 29th

Gray is yet another driver in this tier who is criminally underpriced. Gray has run three career Truck Series races here at Las Vegas and has never finished lower than 12th. Gray has the potential to be higher owned in this race because he fits nicely in three high-priced driver builds.

Other Options: Dylan Lupton ($8,300 – P36) – Lupton will be in the #34 for Josh Reaume Racing. This is not a great truck but does have top 25 upside and Lupton is the best driver who has been in this ride in 2021. Derek Kraus ($8,000 – P12), Chris Hacker ($7,000 – P27)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier

Brett Holmes ($5,700) – P35: When Sam Mayer drives this truck it has been great, but not so much when Holmes does. That not withstanding, Holmes is capabale of a top 25.
Austin Wayne Self ($5,800) – P13: Self has been the model of consistency this season. In his last 14 races, Self has twelve top 20 finishes and six top 15’s.
Tate Fogleman ($6,300) – P33: Fogleman has burned us recently, but he is a good driver in good equipment. I am confident that he can pull a top 25 on Friday night.
Danny Bohn ($6,000) – P28: Bohn has raced at Vegas two times with an avg finish of 21st place. I would be more than happy with a 21st place finish on Fiday.
Keith McGee ($5,100) – P37: McGee starts dead last so he can only go up. I don’t expect a huge points day from this team, but they project for low ownership. Any time we can get the driver starting last at low ownership we should take advantage of that.
Tyler Hill ($6,200) – P24: Hill did wreck here early in 2021, but he was on his way to another top 20 before he had to pit. Hill is one of the safer plays on the slate.
Howie Disavino III ($4,700) – P25: Disavino has never raced at Las Vegas but he is cheap and has fared fairly wel in his truck career. Disavino has finished top 25 in his Truck Series career.
Chase Purdy ($6,700) – Purdy is not expenssive for the upside he has. In his last seven races, Purdy has four top 15’s

4 years ago 0 comments

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