NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Charlotte Roval 10/9

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Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Xfinity series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then, you know the drill, but welcome if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles. Since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Roval Racing…in the Rain?

This weekend the Xfinity Series heads, well, home to Charlotte Motor Speedway but not to run on the 1.5-mile oval, but instead on the Roval! Last season AJ Allmendinger ($10,700) led 12 laps on his way to earning the win. This year there is plenty of reason to believe we will see the same outcome.

In 2020 only 27 cars finished this race with only 24 of those finishing on the lead lap. This track is typically a bit of a wreck fest, unlike most other road courses. We won’t see anything like with the Superspeedway races, but we can expect a few cautions on Saturday. Because this is a road course we only have 67 laps in this race which means once again we are not looking to focus on dominators, but instead we want place differential plays and drivers who will finish well as well.

One thing to remember about this race is that we ran here in the pouring rain in 2020 and with rain potentially in the forecast on Saturday again we could see another rain-soaked race. A lot of the teams did mention last week that they hoped it did rain, especially the teams that had success here last year.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier

Since this is a road course, Austin Cindric ($10,300 – P1) is in play and should be considered one of the elite plays on this slate. With Cindric starting from the pole he projects for sub 25% ownership. We can potentially get one of the best road course races in NASCAR low ownership, it’s kind of hard to pass that up.

AJ Allmendinger ($10,700)

Starting Position: 14th

As I mentioned in the open, Allmendinger won this race last season and is the favorite to do so again on Saturday. Allmendinger is two for two at the Roval winning both races that he has run here. Allmendinger is going to be extremely popular, but he has the most upside in this race for me so fading him is just something I can’t see doing, especially if you only play one lineup. There are so many good options in the lower price ranges that fading the probable highest scoring driver just doesn’t make much sense.

Noah Gragson ($10,000)

Starting Position: 10th

Gragson is one of the drivers who talked about wanting it to rain here this weekend and I can see why. Last season at the Roval, Gragson led 16 laps and finished 2nd to Allmendinger. In his first race at the Roval in 2019, Gragson finished 5th. Gragson has run 14 road course races in his Xfinity career since 2019 and he has an average finish of 11.6 with 11 top 10’s and seven top 5’s. There is plenty of value in this field to roster both Dinger and Gragson in your lineups and feel comfortable about it.

TY Dillon ($9,300)

Starting Position: 25th

Ty Dillon has not run a road course race in the Xfinity Series since 2017, but before that, he was very good. Between 2015 and 2017, Ty Dillon ran seven road course races and while he did not win a race, he did had five top 10’s and three top 5’s. Dillon had an average finish of 7.4 in those seven races as well. Ty Dillon has not raced in the Xfinity Series at the Charlotte Roval, but he has run three Cup races. Dillon has an average finish of 20th in those races and his best finish is 15th. I think Dillon has great upside and could be a good GPP pivot off the chalkier plays of Allmendinger and Cindric if you want to go that route.

Other Options: Daniel Hemric ($9,100 – P3), Ty Gibbs ($10,500 – P12): Expensive and projects to be popular but could also win this race and be the highest scoring driver.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Alex Labbe ($7,300)

Starting Position: 20th

Alex Labbe was a road course ringer when his Xfinity Series career started and he has since become a solid all-around driver, but road courses are still his bread and butter. Labbe has been nothing short of spectacular in his three races at the Roval. In each of his three races, Labbe has improved his finish in each race. Labbe finished 13th back in 2018, then earned a top 10 with a 6th place finish in 2019, and last year Labbe earned his first top 5 with a 4th place finish. The Roval is Labbe’s best road course on the circuit and I expect him to come home with his third straight top 10 here.

Josh Bilicki ($7,500)

Starting Position: 31st

Bilicki is a solid road course racer and will be in the 07 that is usually driven by Joe Graf Jr. In three previous races here at the Charlotte Roval, Bilicki has an average finish of 21st and finished 13th here last season. Bilicki is not a safe play by any means, but he starts far enough back to provide the place differential upside we need to make value at his salary.

Gray Gaulding ($7,600)

Starting Position: 39th

Gaulding is having a rough season, but one of the few bright spots for this team has been his finishes at road course races. In 2021, Gaulding has an average finish of 21.7 at this track type and had his best finish on the season of 13th at Mid-Ohio, the last road course he raced at. In his career at the Charlotte Roval, Gaulding has finishes of 29th and 28th.

Other Options: Austin Hill ($7,700 – P40), Preston Pardus ($7,800 – P37), Sam Mayer (8.700 – P15)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Kris Wright ($5,700) – P38: Wright is driving for BJ McLeod this weekend, has great PD upside, and has a good history at road course. Oh, and this is a Stewart-Haas Racing prepared car. How do you not love this car?
2. Landon Cassill ($6,600) – P35: Cassill is another good road course driver as his 19.7 avg finishing position at this track type this seaon would indicate. His worst finish at a road course in 2021 is 27th, but his best was at the Daytona RC, 12th. That track runs similar to the Roval.
3. Loris Hezemans ($5,100) – P34: Hezemans has only 3 Xfinity Series starts under his belt, and one was a road course in 2021. At Road America this season Hezemans finished 22nd. Like I keep hammering home this is another good place differential play.
4. Joe Graf Jr. ($4,800) – P30: Graf has not excelled at road courses in his career, but he did manage to navigate the carnage in the rain here last season and finished 15th (started P31). This season he has more experience and is in the #17 RWR car that we love to use each and every week. Could Graf pull out a magical run and finish top 10, maybe, but is a top a 15 more likely, definitely.
5. Kyle Weatherman ($4,700) – P24: Like with Graf there is some risk for a negative score, but the upside is too great here to pass up. Weatherman usually does well at road courses, and in the two he’s seen more than once he has avg finishes of 15.5 (Indy GP) and 16.5 (Daytona RC). Last season at the Roval, Weatherman got caught up in an early wreck, so I don’t count that but looking at his history at similar track types I expect a solid DFS points day out of Weatherman
6. Brandon Brown ($6,000)- P16: Brown won his first career race last weekend and you can’t dispute the confidence that gives driver. In his Xfinity career, Brown is an above average road course driver. Brown has a 19.7 avg finish in 14 races. I feel Brown is a low teens play this week.
7. Spencer Boyd ($4,500) – P33: Boyd is consistantly a mid 20’s driver when it comes to road courses. We won’t see Boyd pushing for the lead or a top 10 most likely, but a top 25 finish at his price will more that suffice to make value.

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