NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Talladega 10/2

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Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Xfinity series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then, you know the drill, but welcome if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles. Since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Can we run this race to the end dry?

Earlier this season at Talladega the Xfinity Series race was shortened by rain and saw Jeb Burton ($10,600 – P14) earn his first win in one of NASCAR top touring series. Luckily the weather looks clear for this race and we should get the full 113 laps unless the sun sets early (insert face palm emoji). Much like with the Truck Series race earlier in the day and the Cup Series on Sunday we will be focusing on loading up on drivers starting towards the rear, or as the hashtag says, #StacktheBack!

Unlike the Truck Series, we don’t have a projected +50% owned driver, which is nice. There is a more balanced field in this race and more paths to an optimal build. Like I do every week, I ran the optimizer with multiple settings to see what builds might be popular and many builds leave between $2K and $5K on the table which is what I expected. Pricing for this race isn’t as top-heavy as with the trucks. We have a much better selection of drivers to use in the $7K range. Also, the value section is better for this race with better options so we don’t have to go too deep in a player pool down there. I will be leaving some salary on the table for my builds, probably around $1-2.5K but I will probably have a max salary build as well.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier

Kaulig Racing

Jeb Burton ($10,600 – P14)

AJ Allmendinger ($10,400 – P5)

Justin Haley ($10,200 – P8)

Kaulig has dominated Superspeedway racing in recent years in the Xfinity Series, especially Talladega. This team has won three straight Talladega races, Chevrolets have also won 6 straight and 7 of 8 races. It is hard to bet against these guys when it seems like Kaulig has mastered the Superspeedway program. My preferred pick is Burton, but Haley swept both races here in 2020 so he would be the next best play. Allmendinger will have the lowest ownership because he starts in the top 5 and is the riskiest play.

John Hunter Nemechek ($10,000)

Starting Position: 11th

Nemechek is in the #54 Joe Gibbs Toyota this weekend and should be a threat to win this race. After running the Truck Series earlier in the day, JHN will hop into the JGR car and look to potentially sweep these races. Nemechek hasn’t raced here in an Xfinity car since 2019, but in his two Talladega races, he has finishes of 6th and 7th. If he can keep this car clean he should be a threat to go to victory lane.

Other Options: Noah Grason ($9,800 – P4), Daniel Hemric ($9,400 – P6)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

JJ Yeley ($8,100)

Starting Position: 38th

Yeley is underpriced for his upside and skill at this track. With him being underpriced, I would expect the ownership to be massive, but with people potentially paying up for the Kaulig drivers they may not be able to afford Yeley. In his last five races at Talladega, Yeley has finished between 4th and 11th four times with 22nd being his lowest finish (which would make value on Saturday). I love Yeley on Saturday and will be overweight on him for sure.

Garrett Smithley ($7,300)

Starting Position: 35th

Smithley is something of a Talladega Xfinity Series expert. In his five races here, Smithely has never finished lower than 21st and has finished 12th or better in the other four. Smithley finished 8th in this race last year but this season he is in much better equipment. At the last Superspeedway race (August – Daytona), JJ Yeley drove this #17 car to a 13th place finish. I see Smithley as a top 20 driver with top 10 upside based on attrition.

Alex Labbe ($7,500 – P32), Santino Ferrucci ($7,700 – P33)

I tried to pick one of these two drivers to write up but could not separate them. Both Labbe and Ferrucci give you equal upside and ownership projections at practically the same salary. The only difference between the two is that Ferrucci has never raced on a Superspeedway in the Xfinity Series and Labbe has excelled at them. Ferrucci has been good at all other tracks and has run well on larger tracks in the IndyCar Series so I expect he will fare well here. Labbe has top 10’s in two of his last three Talladega races and has never finished lower than 25th.

Other Options: Jordan Anderson ($7,000 – P29), Jason White ($7,200 – P34)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Caesar Bacarella ($6,400) – P37: Bacarella was excellent at Talladega in 2020 finishing 17th and then 13th. Earlier this season he wrecked with 6 to go and finished 38th. I look at the race earlier this year as a fluke and will roll out plenty of Bacarella in my lineups this weekend
2. Brandon Brown ($6,600) – P19: I expect Brown to be wildly underowned on Saturday with him starting from P19 and plan on taking advantage of this. Brown is one of the top SS drivers in this series and has improved his finish every race here. Since 2019, when he finished 15th, Brown has improved to the point that he comes in with back-to-back top 10 fnishes at Talladega.
3. David Starr ($4,700) – P28: “You done messed up, A-a-ron”. Starr is a superb Superspeedway racer and DraftKings showed him zero respect with this salary. The man has five finishes of 18th or better in his las six races at Talladega. Add in his finishes at Daytona where he has five straight top 20’s including a top 5 if you take out his two wrecks and this is just too easy. Play Starr on Saturday at 15% ownership.
4. Ryan Sieg ($6,900) – P17: Sieg is another driver, like Brown, who has improved as he gains experience at Superspeedways. In his last two races at Dega, Seig has back-to-back top 5 finishes, including a 2nd place finish here last season. Sieg will potentially be under 20% and could be the difference in a GPP.
5. Joey Gase ($6,100) – P39: Gase has not done well recently at Talladega, BUT he hasn’t been in good cars. His best results came in the mid 2010’s when he was driving the car he is in on Saturday. Gase has a top 5 and two other finishes of 11th and 16th in four races in the #52.
6. Joe Graf Jr. ($6,100) – P40: For a driver starting last, Graf doesn’t project to be that highly owned, but there’s good reason. In his three races here he’s never finished higher than 31st. Now if you are playing cash (WHY?!) he is a lock because there is no safer play on the slate, but for GPP’s there are better options.

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