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NASCAR DFS

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Martinsville 10/31

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

This is it…until next week

Welcome to Martinsville week where we decide the final four drivers who will compete for the title next week. Just as a personal opinion, Martinsville is not the track that should be deciding who gets to go to the Championship 4, but here we are so let’s get at it. Martinsville is NASCAR’s oldest track and there has been a NASCAR race here every year since 1949. Martinsville is also the shortest and slowest track on the circuit but it does not lack for action or an inordinate amount of cautions. This race will get crazy at the end of the two stages and of course as the checkered flag gets closer to waving. Drivers will be trying to get all the stage points they can and also the there Penske drivers will all be fighting for the win as well.

This is a long, 500 lap race and because of this, we will need to load up on dominators. Since you need to get those laps-led bonus points, we will need to find some value. This is the exact reason why a driver priced at $5,900 or less has been in EVERY optimal lineup for the last three races here. There are not a huge number of drivers in this price range that look good, but there is at least one.

It’s Kyle Larson’s world and we are all just living in it.

Larson is the only driver who has clinched his spot in the finale on the back of three straight wins. Larson is the first driver in over thirty years to win three straight races twice in a year (Dale Earnhardt). Both Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin look to be locks to make the final, barring something catastrophic happening to either of them. So, that leaves the final five drivers competing for one spot. Only Joey Logano is in a must-win situation, but if you are the other four drivers and you see Logano leading late you will have to do everything you can to get past him. All of this is will make for a fun and interesting afternoon on Sunday.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier

Once again Kyle Larson ($11,800 – P1) projects as the highest-scoring driver, and why not. Larson has dominated at every track type we’ve been to in 2021. At the first Martinsville race this season, Larson did finish 5th but did not lead any laps. I fully expect him to take the early lead from the pole and lead a good amount of laps but he may just drive around, keep his car clean and finish top 10. Larson will be in some of my lineups, but I won’t have 100% exposure like I have the last few weeks.

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,400)

Starting Position: 4th

Everything points to Truex having an outstanding day on Sunday. First, Truex is running his Auto-Owners Insurance paint scheme which when he runs this scheme he traditionally has some of his best races. Since 2020, MTJ has run this scheme 15 times and has one win, eight top 5’s, ten top 10’s, and has led 776 laps. Needless to say, Truex usually runs great in this paint scheme. At Martinsville, Truex has been dominant with three wins in the last four races. Truex also has six top 5’s and seven top 10’s in his last eight races here. If Larson doesn’t win this race, don’t be surprised to see the #19 Toyota in victory lane on Sunday.

Denny Hamlin ($10,700)

Starting Position: 3rd

Hamlin isn’t as dominant here at Martinsville as Truex is, but this is clearly one of Denny’s best tracks. Hamlin is a five-time winner at Martinsville and has led 490 laps since 2018. Now, Hamlin hasn’t won here since 2015, but since 2018 Hamlin does own four top 5’s and has only finished lower than 12th once in seven races. Hamlin will compete for the win on Sunday, but he should be a lock for another top 5.

Joey Logano ($9,500)

Starting Position: 5th

Logano has to win or go home (not really, he still races next week) and if there is a track he can do it at, it’s Martinsville. Coming into Sunday’s race here, Logano has four straight top 10’s and has six top 10’s and a win in seven races since 2018. Like with Truex and Hamlin before him, Logano has led a large number of laps, 573 to be exact in those seven races. I see Logano as an outside favorite to win, but a lock for a top 10 unless he wrecks himself trying to win this race.

There are two constants in the last three races here, a driver priced at $5.9K on DK will be in the optimal, and so will Ryan Blaney ($9,700 – P8). Since 2020, Blaney has been in all three optimal lineups which just shows how well Blaney runs at Martinsville. Sticking with the theme, since 2018, Blaney has had five top 5’s in seven races and has led 372 laps. This is also a real example of how getting dominator points is key. Blaney started from P4 but finished 11th here earlier this season, but led 157 laps in that race which made up for his negative 7 in place differential.

Other Options: Chase Elliott ($10,100 – P2), Brad Keselowski ($9,300 -P6), Kevin Harvick ($9,000 – P9)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Christopher Bell ($8,400)

Starting Position: 12th

Christopher Bell has greatly improved his standing at Martinsville in each of his three races. Earlier this season, Bell finished 7th after starting 23rd. In that race, Bell had an average running position of 10.6 and had the 10th best speed ranking. Bell is quietly one of the hottest drivers in the series, over the last four races he has a series-best average finish of 6th. I see Bell as a solid top 10 play with top 5 upside.

Kurt Busch ($7,900)

Starting Position: 10th

At Martinsville, Kurt Busch has been one of the series’s best drivers in recent years. While the focus is on the playoff drivers, Busch will be looking to steal a victory here, a place he’s won at twice already. In his last seven races here, Kurt has an average finish of tenth, but if you remove his race earlier this season he has an average finish of 8.1.

Bubba Wallace ($7,600)

Starting Position: 17th

Wallace has traditionally run well at Martinsville. Earlier this season, Wallace finished 16th, his fourth finish of 17th or better in his last five races. Wallace has been improving throughout the season. Since Bristol (minus Texas where he wrecked), Wallace has an average finish of 12.2. I see Wallace as a top 15 driver on Sunday with top 10 upside.

Other Options: Alex Bowman ($8,700 – P13) – Before he had a late-race incident this spring, Bowman had finished 6th in back-to-back races at Martinsville. I think Bowman will be a low-owned play that could finish top 10. Matt DiBenedetto ($7,700 – P21) – Matty D comes in with three straight top 12’s and has the 15th best speed ranking at this track type this season.

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Chris Buescher ($5,900) – P15: Buescher is a good performer at Martinsville and has finished 12th or 13th in three of the last four. I see Buescher as a top 15 car on Sunday and is a great low owned play on Sunday.
Anthony Alfredo ($5,400) – P32: Alfredo is not someone who typically ranks this high, but he had a good race here in the spring (26th), is cheap, and starts far enough back that he can’t hurt you. Alfredo will also probably come in arounf sub 10% ownership
Ryan Preece ($6,200) – P26: Preece has three finishes of 19th or better in his last five races here. Earlier this season, Preece was running in the teens, but had alternator issues and then wrecked late. I see Preece as a top 20 car this week.
Cole Custer ($6,600) – P24: Custer had a poor finish in his first run at Martinsville in 2020, but since then he was back-to-back finishes in the teens. Last season in this race Custer finished 13th, and earlier this season he started 26th and came home 18th. Custer is currently on a run of four straight top 20 finishes and I fully expect that to continue on Sunday with another finish in the mid-teens.
Corey Lajoie ($6,000) – P29: Lajoie is typically a low to mid 20’s driver at Martinsville. Earlier this season, Lajoie was running in the low 20’s when he wrecked and finished 37th. Before that race, Lajoie had three straight finishes between 18th and 25th.
Erik Jones ($6,900) – P28: If you fade the mid-tier this week, than I really like Jones as an option here. He traditionally runs well and should be a top 20 driver.
Garrett Smithley ($5,200) – P37: Smithley is not going to led laps or run in the top 10, but he can get a top 30 and help you cash. Smithley is a good young driver in ok equipment. He is super cheap, starts next to last, and will carry sub 5% ownership as well. Drivers like Houff, McLeod, and Haley are expected to be higher owned, but I don’t see them exceeding the value of Smithley.

Thank you for reading my weekly NASCAR DFS Pit Stop articles and make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Martinsville 10/30

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Xfinity series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then, you know the drill, but welcome if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles. Since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Running laps on the paperclip

This week, like with the Truck Series and Cup Series, the Xfinity Series has their last race before the season finale next weekend in Phoenix. Austin Cindric and AJ Allmendinger are all but locked in for the finale on points, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be trying to earn the win to guarantee their spot. As we saw last week, there are plenty of non-playoff drivers who can throw a wrench in things like Ty Gibbs did last week.

Earlier this season at Martinsville, Josh Berry ($10,800 – P29) led the most laps and won his first-ever Xfinity race. I don’t believe he will be a threat to win this one in the #31 for Josh Anderson instead of the #8 JRM car he won with earlier this season. Berry is still a solid place differential play but at his salary, I believe there are better options than him for this race. I also think Berry will carry a higher ownership number than he should for this race which also has me looking elsewhere.

Drivers who run up front, stay up front

At the first race from Martinsville this season we saw a lot of drivers who started towards the front stay there all day. In that race, seven drivers who started in the top 10 would finish there and four different drivers led 28 or more laps and they all finished inside the top seven. Five drivers led double-digit laps and all five finished in the top seven as well. Basically what I am saying is we want the drivers who start near the front in our lineups and look for maybe one or two place differential plays.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier

Harrison Burton ($10,300)

Starting Position: 10th

Burton is one of the drivers who need to win this race to get into the Championship four next week, which he has done at this track before. Last season at this race, Harrison won and led 81 laps after starting right where he starts on Saturday, tenth. Earlier this season at Martinsville, Burton started on the pole but ended up finishing 7th and leading 52 laps. Value in this field is not deep and I don’t feel like we can pay up for both Gibbs and Cindric (more on them to come) and get good value in the rest of our lineups but the extra $1K we can save using Burton will definitely help.

Noah Gragson ($10,500)

Starting Position: 9th

Gragson is another driver who likely needs to win to move into the Championship four even though he is currently sitting in fourth place. Martinsville is one of Gragson’s best tracks with an average finish of 2.5 here in two races. Earlier this season Gragson led 12 laps and finished 2nd behind Berry. Gragson is rolling right now with nine top 10’s in his last twelve races and hasn’t finished lower than 12 in any race (outside of the two races he wrecked). Gragson is actually my pick to win this race and clinch his spot in the final next week.

Daniel Hemric ($10,000)

Starting Position: 7th

Hemric is having a career year, but he may need to win this race to move into the Championship 4, which he has still never done. Depending on what drivers like Harrison Burton and Gragson do, he could point his way in. I think we will see a strategy that puts the 18 car towards the front at the end of this race, which could end tragically or end with him scoring a top 5. Earlier this season, Hemric finished 3rd here at Martinsville, his only career Xfinity race here. It’s a very VERY small sample size, but Hemric is an experienced driver and in excellent equipment. There is a downside to Hemric, even though he projects as the 4th highest scoring driver, he also projects as the second-highest owned (our next entry projects as the highest). I will still have some exposure to Hemric, but I will limit it to no more than 50%.

Austin Cindric ($11,200)

Starting Position: 1st

I am liking the builds I can make pairing Cindric with one of the two drivers above. Cindric starts on the pole and I think he gets out early and leads a good portion of the beginning of this race. Even after the competition caution, I think Cindric retains the lead and will be hard to pass. There is some risk from Cindric here without a top 5 on his record but you could look at it as he is due for one here. Gragson is my pick to win, but Cindric will be in the top 3 and clinch his spot in the Championship 4.

Other Options: Ty Gibbs ($11,500 – P2): Like last week, I do like using Gibbs this week but his salary is what makes me not put him higher in this tier. I will probably have some exposure to him but not as much as I would like. Brandon Jones ($9,200 – P8): Jones has performed well here in his career and is cheaper than he should be. A top 5 is possible, but a top 10 is probably more likely. Justin Allgaier ($9,700 – P5): Another driver who is seemingly a lock for a top 10, and could easily win this race. I expect Allgaier to be popular though.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Riley Herbst ($8,000)

Starting Position: 16th

Last season at this race, Herbst had a great race after starting 24th he would finish in 6th. Earlier this season though, Herbst did not have an incident-free race and he ended up finishing 29th two laps down. Herbst is coming off back-to-back top 15 finishes and has five top 15’s including two top 5’s in his last eight races. Herbst has had an up and down season and it seems like right now is an up for Herbst. I think Herbst comes home with a top 10 on Saturday night.

Jeb Burton ($8,600)

Starting Position: 15th

Burton has two finishes of 11th or better in both his races here, including a fourth-place finish in this race last season. Over his last nine races, Burton has two top 5’s, three top 10’s, and only one finish lower than 13th (not including his wreck at Vegas). Ownership on Burton is usually low, and Saturday night should be no different. At this price and with people potentially stacking the top-tier drivers, Burton should go overlooked and could be a great low-owned play.

Michael Annett ($7,800)

Starting Position: 6th

Annett has only run two races at Martinsville in his career, but he has been great in both. Last season at this race, Annett started 11th and finished 8th. Earlier this season, Annett started 10th and finished 10th. I am under the impression people will be scared off of Annett because of his starting position, but he constantly runs inside the top 10 weekly and has back-to-back top 10 finishes. Annett was finishing top 10 almost weekly before his leg injury, and I think he seems to be back to where he was and is healthy finally.

Other Options: Brandon Brown ($7,000 – P17), Justin Haley ($8,800 – P4), Preston Pardus ($8,400 – P38), Jeremy Clements ($7,400 – P18)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

JJ Yeley ($6,600) – P28: Yeley is too cheap for the upside he has in this race, he is an experienced driver who knows his way around Martinsville. As long as he can keep the 17 out of any wrecks, he is a top 20 car.
Stephen Leicht ($5,400) – P37: Leicht has never run an Xfinity race here, but he is an experienced driver who has some limited upside. He is cheap and starts near the back of the field so he can’t hurt you too bad. If he can avoid carnage and be around at the end Leicht could pick up a top 25.
Colin Garrett ($6,100) – P30: Garrett is a good driver in pretty solid equipment this week. I am not expecting a huge day, but a top 20 is definitely a possibility on Saturday.
Jade Buford ($6,400) – P31: Buford has burnt us of late, but he finished 19th here earlier this season. I am hopefully this team has a clean race and we can get another top 20 finish from the 48 car.
Joe Graf Jr. ($4,600) – P32: Graf has had two completely different races in his career at Martinsville. At this race last season, Graf finished 21st and had a monster fantasy day. Earlier in 2021 though, Graf wrecked with 70 laps to go and finished 38th. Graf has run top 30 in four straight races and that is pretty much all we need from him at this price to make value.
Tommy Joe Martins ($5,600) – P19: Martins is a risky GPP play on Saturday, but there is a good shot he performs well here. In the second half of 2021, Martins has been a mid teens to low twenties driver and at Martinsville I expect a similar result. Last fall at this race, Martins finished 16th so that is the kind of upside we can expect from him here.
Matt Mills ($5,100) – P35: Mills has been running some good races of late and starts far enough back that all he really needs is a top 30 to make value. He also helps get the drivers with those big price tags in your lineups.

Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series Martinsville 10/30

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Truck series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then, you know the drill, but welcome if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Trucks Series finally returns to the track!

After nearly a month off, the Truck Series is finally back on the track in Martinsville for the final race before the Championship Finale in Phoenix next week. Looking at this week though, we have a race with 200 laps which is rare for the Truck Series. Because we have a short track with a lot of laps we will want to focus on getting dominators into our builds first this week and then search for value and mid-tier to fill in. There are the usual suspects at the top of the starting grid, but there is one driver that will probably get overlooked that could lead a lot of laps and potentially win this race.

Another thing about the field for this race is we have a few young drivers in great trucks that I will also want to have exposure to. Unfortunately, the value tier is not great this week, again, but I think some decent plays won’t hurt us too badly and will help us fit the high-priced drivers we need on Saturday.

As with every week, each tier of drivers is listed in order of preference

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier

I am going to just get this part out of the way now, both John Hunter Nemechek ($10,600 – P1) and Sheldon Creed ($10,300 – P4) are tops on my list of drivers. Both of these two were the class of the series in 2021 and should both lead their fair share of laps on Saturday. I want to have exposure to both in my builds and If you are playing one lineup then you need to decide which one you want. Both have a great shot at the win and it comes down to what salary fits your build. My preferred driver would be JHN because I think he takes the lead from the start and holds it for the first 50 laps.

Grant Enfinger ($9,700)

Starting Position: 15th

Enfinger is back in the #98 for ThorSport Racing this week, a truck he has been excellent in this season. Enfinger has been in this truck eleven times this season and if you remove his 21st place finish at Talladega (wrecked) he has an average finish of 5.8 in the other ten races and hasn’t finished lower than 11th in any race. There is a downside to Enfinger this week, he is too cheap. Enfinger will most likely be one of, If not, the highest owned drivers this week, but like I say every week, there is good chalk in NASCAR and Enfinger fits the bill this week. Enfinger won this race last season in the 98 truck and has four top 10’s and three top 5’s in the last five races.

Josh Berry ($11,300)

Starting Position: 25th

Saturday’s race will be Berry’s 9th race in the #25 truck (10th overall) and he has done extremely well in this truck. Berry has not finished outside the top 20 if you remove his one race (Knoxville) where he wrecked. This race was also the dirt track so it’s really hard to count that anyway. In those 7 races, Berry has an average finish of 13.4 and has five top 15 finishes. Berry will not be a threat to win this race and won’t lead laps but he should give some great place differential and should be low owned because of his price.

Zane Smith ($9,500)

Starting Position: 9th

Zane Smith has only run one race here at Martinsville in the Truck Series and in that one race, he finished 3rd. Smith is a nice complimentary piece to any Creed or Nemechek lineups because of his cheap salary. Besides his low salary for the potential top 5 upside, I also believe Smith will not carry much ownership. With drivers like Berry and Kligerman having such huge upside, people will flock to them and will not be able to roster Smith. Over his last two races, Smith has not fared well. But before that, Smith had a run of eight top 10’s in ten races.

Other Options: Johnny Sauter ($10,900 – P22), Parker Kligerman ($11,500 – P30), Chandler Smith ($9,200 – P6)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Taylor Gray ($8,800)

Starting Position: 39th

The younger Gray brother will also most likely be chalky on Saturday but he is also good chalk. Now, there is a chance he doesn’t carry too much ownership because people will likely flock to the PD of Kligermand and/or Berry because of the name-value there. Gray has run three races in this truck with his best finish being a 12th place finish at Gateway. Overall, this #17 truck has been a solid ride all season with four top 12 finishes, including a win by Ryan Preece at Nashville. I see Gray as a low 20’s to high teens driver on Saturday.

Corey Heim ($8,600)

Starting Position: 28th

Heim is an all-star driver in the ARCA Series and the 19-year-old will be getting only his third run in a Truck Series race on Saturday. This will also be Heim’s third run in the Kyle Busch Motorsports #51 truck where he hasn’t been great yet. In his first race at Darlington, Heim wrecked late and finished 23rd, and then at Watkins Glen, he had a better finish, 18th. I expect Heim to keep learning and just trying to gain experience, but a top 20 is likely as long as he can keep the truck on the track Saturday.

Ben Rhodes ($8,000)

Starting Position: 3rd

Rhodes usually runs well at Martinsville, especially recently. In the last four races here, Rhodes has finished 2nd twice and fourth once with his only blemish being a 16th place finish at this race in 2019. Rhodes starts from 3rd which will most likely scare off plenty of people, but as I said, this is one of Rhodes’ best tracks and he should push both Nemechek and Creed for the lead early and will most likely be competing for the win on Saturday afternoon.

Other Options: Jack Wood ($7,500 – P34): Wood might be semi-popular, but he is cheap for his upside in this race. I will have some exposure to him to help get three top-tier drivers in. Stewart Friesen ($8,200 – P7), Austin Hill ($7,800), Matt Crafton ($8,400 – P5)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier

Colby Howard ($6,400) – P29: Big upside for low price. I really like this play today.
Derek Kraus ($6,800) – P17: Consistent mid to high teens driver. Kraus does have a top 10 here
Dawson Cram ($5,500) P33: Cram has run four Martinsville races in his career and has a low finish of 24th. All three of his other races were top 20. I really like this truck on Saturday and he should be low owned.
Austin Wayne Self ($5,700) – P21: Self has run 6 races here and outside of his wrecks he has never finished lower than 23rd. I see top 20 upside for Self on Saturday with top 15 potential with attrition.
Timmy Hill ($6,00) – P24: Hill is best in the Truck Series and he may get overlooked because of how poorly he runs in Xfinity and Cup. This is a top 20 truck weekly and Hill could drive it to a low teens finish.
Chris Hacker ($6,300) – P37: Similar to Howard, Hacker has some good upside this week at a low salary.
Bret Holmes ($6,100) – P20: His value is capped because of his starting position, but in GPP’s he could be a 5-10% play that gets someone a takedown if he avoids the potential carnage.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Kansas 10/24

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

” ‘Cause I’m about to solve it. Put my engine back into overdrive”

This weekend the Cup Series playoffs head to Kansas Speedway for the Hollywood Casino 400! On Saturday in the Xfinity race, we saw that the high line was practically the only place to pass on the track. Because of this, I am looking at for this race is drivers who tend to run well in the high groove. Aside from drivers who run well up top, I want to see who performed well earlier this season here, as well as at other 1.5-mile tracks with low tire wear. Kansas is an old surface but it does not eat up tires which makes them less important.

Rain on my parade?

There is a high chance of rain on Sunday afternoon in Kansas around the track, luckily Kansas DOES have lights which means you don’t need to tweet at Bob Pockrass to ask. These cars are set up for daytime racing, not night racing so it will be interesting to see who can make the proper adjustments to get their cars changed from day to night. I would assume that it would be the top teams in the series, but unfortunately, that’s just another thing we cannot predict.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier

Kyle Larson ($11,700)

Starting Position: 1st

Welcome to the weekly breakdown of how good Kyle Larson is at driving anything with an engine in it. There doesn’t seem to be any type of vehicle or track that Larson can’t dominate at, and Kansas is no different. Even though he didn’t have the finish to show for it, he dominated earlier this season at Kansas leading 132 or 267 laps. In 2021 at low tire wear mile and a half tracks, Larson has been the class of the field each week. In five races at this track type, Larson has three wins, the best overall speed, and driver rating, and has led an average of 182.6 laps per race. I am seriously running out of things to say about Larson each week, luckily I only have to write him up two more times after Sunday.

William Byron ($9,500)

Starting Position: 9th

No, you are not reading the article for Texas from last week, I promise this is a different article. Byron historically runs well at Kansas. After a few poor races to start his career where he couldn’t finish higher than 20th here everything has seemingly flipped and now Byron is a top 10 machine at Kansas. Since this race in the fall of 2019, Byron has finished 5th, 10th, 8th, and 9th and has led laps in three of the four races. Earlier this season Byron finished 9th with an average running position of 10.1 and the 8th best speed ranking. At this track type in 2021, Byron is also part of the top tier with the 2nd best speed ranking and 2nd best driver rating. At Las Vegas last month Byron ranked 1st in total speed ranking, he finished 2nd and had the second-best speed ranking last week in Texas as well. Lastly, at Michigan (which is considered to be a bigger version of Kansas) Byron also finished 2nd and had the 2nd best speed ranking

Ryan Blaney ($9,300)

Starting Position: 2nd

Blaney is another driver who excels at this track type. Since the midpoint of the season, Blaney has been the best at high-speed ovals like Kansas with a series-best 4.3 average finish in four races. Blaney also has finished in the top 6 at all four races. In the playoffs, the series has raced at two low tire wear 1.5-mile tracks and Blaney has finished fifth at Las Vegas and sixth at Texas. Blaney also won at Michigan back in August this year. I expect Blaney to compete for the win but if he doesn’t win, he should at least come home in the top 5.

Denny Hamlin ($11,000)

Starting Position: 6th

Hamlin should be ranked higher, but because of his salary I do not love the builds that have both him and Larson and for me, Larson is the priority on Sunday. With that being said, I will most likely have at least one lineup with them both. Hamlin has won two of the last four races at Kansas, but over the last two races luck wasn’t on his side. At Las Vegas last month, Hamlin led a race-high 137 laps, had the 2nd best speed ranking, and won the race. On Sunday I expect Hamlin to push Larson for the win and should be part of the top 5 at the end of the day.

Other Options: Alex Bowman ($9,800 – P25) – I expect Bowman to carry a lot of ownership on Sunday so that’s why he isn’t higher on the list. Bowman has not finished lower than 18th in any race since 2018 here (7 races) and has two top 5’s and four top 10’s. Kyle Busch ($10,700 – P4), Chase Elliott ($10,000 – P5)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Tyler Reddick ($8,400)

Starting Position: 12th

Well, you can’t have an article about a track where the high line is the best and not include Tyler Reddick. This man loves to run up top and right up against the wall but while it may seem risky it does tend to work for him. Over the last five races at 1.5-mile tracks, Reddick has finished no worse than 9th in any race and has the fourth-best average finish of 7.4 during this span. It seems every week I watch these races and Tyler Reddick and the #8 car is running towards the front and I expect to see much of the same this Sunday.

Austin Dillon ($7,800)

Starting Position: 14th

Let’s keep this RCR tier going! Reddick’s teammate, Austin Dillon, is another solid play in my eyes on Sunday. Dillon has run well at Kansas in the past and he’s also done well at 1.5-mile tracks in 2021. Dillon finished 11th in this race last season and earlier this year he came home tenth. As far as how he’s fared at similar tracks this year, Dillon has an average finish of 10.6 and an average running position of 12.5 at 1.5-mile tracks this season. At Michigan, Dillon was having his best race of the year until he got into that wreck with Keselowski at the end of the stage. I expect Dillon to be a top 15 lock, but to push for a top 10.

Bubba Wallace ($7,400)

Starting Position: 27th

Wallace is not someone who typically runs well at Kansas, but he is also in the best car he’s ever been in the Cup Series. Wallace has shown some great improvements at this track type late in the season. Prior to Texas where he wrecked, Wallace had finished 14th, 14th, and 16th at the 1.5-mile tracks. I expect Wallace to be a low owned car that finishes in the mid to high teens.

Other Options: Kurt Busch ($8,500 – P13): I really like Kurt Busch on Sunday, but because of his salary he doesn’t work in my three top tier driver builds and that’s why he’s in the “other” section. Over the last 4 at this track type, Busch has an avg finish of 7.3 and finished 4th and 8th at Michigan and Vegas respectively. Kevin Harvick ($8,900 – P11): When he’s not fighting with Chase Elliott, Harvick is having great races lately. In 6 of the last 7 he has finished in the top 10 and has an avg finish of 7.4 (4th best) since at the last 5 1.5-mile tracks. Ricky Stenhouse ($7,000 – P28): When he isn’t getting wrecked out of races, Stenhouse is finishing in the mid teens. If he can keep his car away from the carnage, I fully expect Stenhouse to be a huge PD play and finish in the mid to high teens.

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Matt DiBenedetto ($6,800) – P15: DiBenedetto is never priced this low, but it’s not for any reason other than DK’s algorithm is messed up (as usual). I don’t love this play on FD, but on DK he is a great option. Matty D has an avg finish of 11.9 and an avg running position of 12.8. I see DiBenedetto as a low teens driver on Sunday.
Chris Buescher ($6,300) – P21: Buescher, like DiBenedeto, is underpriced for his upside in this race. In his last six races here, Buescher has finished 16th or better four times and finished 8th here in the spring. I view Buescher as a high teens driver on Sunday.
Erik Jones ($6,100) – P17: Jones start’s high, but his price reflects it on both sites. I see Jones as a mid to low teens driver on Sunday based of recent performances. Last week at Texas (a similar track), Jones ran great and finished 12th. At 3 of the 5 low tire wear tracks in 2021 he’s finished between 10th and 16th.
Daniel Suarez ($6,400) – P16: Suarez finished top 10 last week at Texas and has been running really well in the playoffs. In 5 of the 7 playoff races so far, Suarez has finished 17th or better and I expect him to be a mid teens driver with top 10 upside again.
Ryan Preece ($5,700) – P32: I don’t love this pick, but the upside is here Preece has not been running well of late, but he is in a good car that could easily pull a top 20 on Sunday. I expect Preece to be popular, so fading him and going with the next driver on the list may be a good idea.
Anthony Alfredo ($5,600) – P29: Alfredo ran well here in the spring finishing 23rd. At the 8 1.5-mile tracks this season, Alfredo has finished 27th or better in seven of those races. I see Alfredo as mid 20’s car again on Sunday and with some attrition on our favor maybe even a low 20’s finish is in the cards.
Cole Custer ($6,000 – P22: Custer is a mid teens to low twenties driver at this track type typically and I expect that to continue. There really isn’t much to say about Custer, but he is cheap industry wide and will be a pivot off the other $6K drivers in this race. Custer is a GPP play only and you will need some luck to get a huge number out of him, but it can happen. In a wrecked filled race in the first Kansas race of 2020 he came home 7th, so the potential is there.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Kansas 10/23

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles. Since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

…And Toto too?

We ARE in Kansas this week but there won’t be any ruby red slippers, just some good old-fashioned black Goodyear tires! Kansas is a similar track to what we had at Texas last week, a 1.5-mile traditional oval with low tire wear. Also like Texas, track position is important so outside of the value plays we will look at drivers starting in or around the top 15.

Last season at this race only four drivers starting outside the top 10 finished in the top 10 at this race. The two drivers who started at the front (Gragson and Cindric) had their days end early in a big wreck on lap 16 or we could have had 8 of 10 who started in the top finish there. There are a few drivers starting towards the back that can give us some great value on Saturday, but your focus should be on getting the drivers who can finish top 10 in first and looking to fit the value plays in last.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier

Justin Haley ($9,100)

Starting Position: 6th

Haley has only run three times here in Kansas, but he has never finished lower than 7th. Last season at this race, Haley finished 4th, his career-best finish, and in the first race here in 2020 he finished 6th. Looking at similar tracks, Haley has five top ten’s in six Texas races and he has four top 10’s in six Las Vegas races. On Saturday I see Haley as a top 5 driver who has the potential for the win.

Justin Allgaier ($10,500)

Starting Position: 3rd

Allgaier is another driver who could win this race on Saturday, which would be his first at this track. Even though he has never won here, Allgaier has exceptional career numbers here. In 11 career races at Kansas, Allgaier only finished lower than 14th once (wrecked in 2018) and he has eight top 10’s. Allgaier, like Haley, has great finishes at similar tracks, averaging a top 10 at both Michigan and Las Vegas in his career. Also like Haley, I see Allgaier as a top 5 finisher here on Saturday with the potential to win.

Daniel Hemric ($9,500)

Starting Position: 1st

In 2018, Hemric led 128 laps from the pole in this race but ended up finishing second. Hemric is still looking for his first career win and I think this week it finally happens. Including that race in 2018, Hemric has three top 10’s and two top 5’s (both second-place finishes). Hemric is risky since he is on the pole for this race, but he is clicking on all cylinders right now. Coming into this race Hemric has four straight top 5’s and has led at least 17 laps in five of the last seven races.

Other Options: Brandon Jones ($9,300 – P9) – Jones won back-to-back races here from 2019-20 and has four top 10’s in six career races. Ty Gibbs ($11,200 – P10) – Gibbs has the best place differential upside in this tier. I think he scores high. I prefer my builds without him, but I will probably have him in at least one lineup. AJ Allmendinger ($10,200 – P5)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Garrett Smithley ($7,400)

Starting Position: 39th

Earlier I said there were a few drivers who have place differential upside and here is one of them. Smithley is replacing Carson Ware in the #17 this week which has been RWR’s best car in 2021. When you combine the upside (top 20) with the price, Smithley is the top play in this tier. Smithley has run three races in this car in 2021 and he has not finished lower than 25th. Two of the three races were at similar track types (Texas, Las Vegas) and Smithley finished 24th and 25th. If Smithley can avoid any potential carnage he could easily bring this car home with a top 20 and make him a lock for the optimal lineup.

Brandon Brown ($7,800)

Starting Position: 23rd

Brown has been a good driver at Kansas in his career, especially over his last three races. After finishing 18th in 2019, Brown came back to Kansas in 2020 and had two finishes in the top 15 (11th and 13th). With the way pricing is on this slate, we can easily slot in two mid-tier drivers with our three top-tier drivers and Brown is someone that needs to be considered for those types of builds. Brown is probably a top 15 driver with top 10 upside if things work out in his favor.

Jade Buford ($7,300)

Starting Position: 35th

Buford has never raced at Kansas, but he has raced at similar tracks and done well. Earlier this season at Michigan (the most similar track to Kansas) Buford managed to finish 9th. Buford is not going to dominate this race and he might not even finish top 20 but you are not rostering him for that. You are using Buford in your lineups as a pure place differential play for a cheap price.

Other Options: Riley Herbst ($8,900 – P13): It was a tale of two races here for Herbst in 2020. In the first Kansas race, Herbst had a strong showing and finished 9th. Unfortunately when they came back later in the year he wrecked with 28 laps to go and finished 30th. I think Herbst is a top 10 driver this week. Brett Moffitt ($8,700 – P16): Moffitt had the reverse happen to him of what happened to Herbst. In 2020, Moffitt had an oil leak and was forced out of the first Kansas race after only 91 laps. But in the fall, Moffitt came back and finished 7th. Moffitt projects as a top 15 car on Saturday. Michael Annett ($7,600 – P8): After wrecking on the opening lap in 2018 here, Annett has been money at this track since. In three races from 2019-20, Annett has finished 4th and 8th twice. I really like Annett’s chances at a third straight top 10. He will come in at extremely low ownership on the process.

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Joe Graf Jr. ($4,700) – P30: Graf is a capable driver who, if his car holds up, can come home with a good day in the top 25. At his low price you don’t need much from Graf and he will open up the salary needed to stack the top tier drivers we want
Jeremy Clements ($6,800) – P19: After a rough start to his career at Kansas, Clements has figured out how to perfrom well here. In four starts here sine 2018, Clements has two top 10’s and finished top 15 in all four races.
Matt Mills ($5,200) – P31: Mills track history is outstanding (all things considered) and he is consistently a mid-20’s driver here. In three races at Kansas, Mills has finishes of 20th, 26th, and 25th. I expect much of the same from Mills on Saturday. His low price and starting position makes for great value on this slate.
David Starr ($5,300) – P33: Like with Mills before him, Starr is a consistent mid-20’s to high teens driver at Kansas. Last season here, Starr finished 24th in both races and in the previous two races he had finishes of 17th and 23rd. If Starr can keep this car on the track I view him as a low 20’s driver on Saturday.
Bayley Currey ($6,500) – P22: Currey finished 23rd and 18th here in 2020, and I expect to finish right around this position again. Currey is risky because of his price and starting positiong but he makes for a good GPP pivot off what I expect to be the higher owned cheaper plays in this tier.
Gray Gaulding ($6,400) – P40: Gaulding starts last, so he has some good upside. I don’t love the price, but I get it. Gaulding is a much more capable driver than most who start 40th in this series. I think Gaulding will carry decent ownership, so that is why he isn’t higher up this list.

4 years ago 0 comments

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NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Texas 10/17

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Ding Ding Ding, Round 3!

Sunday kicks off the third round of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs with only eight drivers remaining for the final four spots. Texas is a low-tire wear 1.5-mile track that usually runs clean. Last year at this race there were only four cautions for wrecks and only five cars that didn’t finish the race. This is a long race with 334 laps so we will want to get dominators in our lineups. My advice would be no less than 2 in any lineup, but at the same time, don’t try to unnecessarily try to fit more than 3 in and be stuck with three value drivers. This week the mid-tier is absolutely loaded in such a way that building one value driver lineups is entirely too easy.

There will be some chalky builds, but if things happen as they did on Saturday, the chalk will dominate, and you will need to just eat the good chalk. I will, of course, find those few plays with a big upside that won’t be as popular, but will also try to lead you away from the bad chalk.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier

Kyle Larson ($10,500)

Starting Position: 1st

I mean, come on, are you really surprised Larson is the top driver in this race? Well, if you’ve been here all season then you shouldn’t be at this point. When it comes to 1.5-mile track nobody has been better than Larson in 2021. When it comes to total speed rankings at 1.5-mile tracks nobody even comes close to Larson’s 2.57 avg rank. At 1.5-mile low tire wear tracks, yep you guessed it, Kyle Larson is tops there too (avg ranking of 2nd). I know Larson is going to be the highest owned driver, but listen, he’s going to score over 100 points on Sunday, win this race, and lead the most laps. Can you get a takedown on Sunday if you don’t roster Larson? Highly unlikely.

Kyle Busch ($9,800)

Starting Position: 3rd

Oh, look, another Kyle. Last season at this race, Kyle Busch dominated leading 90 laps on his way to his fourth career Texas victory. Since the start of the 2020 NASCAR playoffs, Kyle Busch has finished top 10 in nine of nine races at 1.5-mile low tire wear tracks. Busch also has the third-best total speed ranking at this track type in 2021. On Sunday, Busch has the potential to lead 90 laps again and finish top 3 in this race and he is severely underpriced for his upside.

William Byron ($9,600)

Starting Position: 12th

Byron has been one of the series’s best drivers at this track type in 2021. On the season, Byron ranks second behind Larson in total speed at low tire wear 1.5-mile tracks. The last time the series raced at this track type (Vegas #2), Byron was the fastest car but ran into some late-race carnage and ended up 18th one lap down. Byron will most likely be one of the lowest owned drivers in this race and could be a great pivot off Busch.

Other Options: Ryan Blaney ($9,500 – P4): Blaney has an avg finish of 6th at this type in 2021, but I would only play him on DK. Kevin Harvick ($10,900 – P24): Texas is one of Harvick’s best tracks, but I don’t think he can make value at this salary. He is a top ten threat but he isn’t a threat to lead too many laps. Chase Elliott ($10,100 – P6): Elliott has an avg finish of 4.8 at similar track types in 2021 and has finished top 8 in every race.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Kurt Busch ($8,700)

Starting Position: 17th

Kurt Busch is usually a solid driver at Texas Motorspeedway in his career. Since this track was repaved in 2017, Busch has finished between 7th and 9th in every race, and he is only one of two drivers to finish in the top 10 in all four races since 2019. Since Charlotte, Kurt Busch has an average finish of 4.3 at this track type. At Las Vegas (similar track type), Kurt Busch finished 8th.

Tyler Reddick ($7,700)

Starting Position: 9th

Here’s another driver that nobody ever wants to roster. Reddick is having the best year of his short career in 2021 and should be a top 10 contender again on Sunday. Over the last four races at 1.5-mile tracks, Reddick has finished between 6th and 9th in all four and has the third-best average finish (7th).

Brad Keselowski ($8,500)

Starting Position: 7th

Keselowski is another driver I expect to carry low ownership even the numbers dictate he should be highly owned. This season at this track type, Keselowski has finished 11th or better in all four races as well as having an average finish of 5.8. Keselowski also has an average running position of 8.2 in the same four races. At non-road courses in the playoffs this season Keselowski has an average finish of 7th. Basically what I’m saying is that Keselowski has fared well at this track and similar tracks like it in 2021 and should be considered for your lineups on Sunday.

Other Options: Christopher Bell ($8,300 – P11), Austin Dillon ($7,500 – P15): Dillon has finished 14th or better in each of the last 5 Texas races including a win here last summer. Ricky Stenhouse ($7,200 – P27): Stenhouse, like in most of his races, either wrecks or finishes in the top 16. Let’s hope for a top 16 on Sunday.

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Daniel Suarez ($6,900) – P19: Suarez is a fringe mid tier option at this price. In the last 6 races at 1.5-mile tracks in 2021, Suarez has finished 17th or better in five of them.
Bubba Wallace ($6,400) – P18: Wallace is almost a mirror image of Suarez this week in salary and starting position. In the last three races at this track type, Wallace has finished 14th (twice) and 16th. I believe we will see Wallace finish right around the top 15 again on Sunday.
Cole Custer ($6,200) – P20: At this race last season, Custer was able to finish 14th. Custe has not been outstanding at this track type in 2021, but he is cheap and has small place differetial upside.
Corey Lajoie ($5,700) – P29: Speaking of place differential upside, Lajoie is probably the safest bet for that on Sunday. Texas hasn’t been one of Lajoie’s best tracks, but he does have top 20 upside.
Anthony Alfredo ($5,600) – P28: Alfredo is pretty much a lock for a finish between 23rd and 27th. That is where he has finished at every 1.5-mile track in 20201. Alfredo is plenty cheap enough and seems safe on both sites.
BJ McLeod ($4,500) – P35: Love the salary and starting position. Remember though, there isn’t typically a lot of cars falling out of the Texas races so he might need some attrition to make value, but it can happen.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Texas 10/16

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles. Since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

…And Then There Were Eight

There are only three races left until the Championship is handed out in Phoenix on November 6th. If one of the eight remaining drivers in the playoffs wins this race, they will book their ticket to the finale. We could see some reckless driving in the closing laps. Texas is a low-tire track, so I will be looking back at races this season from Las Vegas and Charlotte to see who ran well there.

One thing you won’t see in my article this week is the ridiculously high-priced Kaz Grala ($11,200). Normally when Grala is in a race and starting this far back (32nd) we would be all over him, but not this week. Grala isn’t in great equipment and the price is just too steep that I cannot see him making value. Since 2019, Grala has only raced at one 1.5-mile track, so with the lack of track time at this type, I don’t feel comfortable using him here as well.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier

Justin Allgaier ($10,200)

Starting Position: 6th

Earlier this season at Texas, Allgaier led 23 laps on his way to a second-place finish. Texas has been one of Allgaier’s better tracks since it was repaved in 2017. Since 2018 if you remove his two wrecks, Allgaier has three top 5 finishes and has finished 12th or better in five races. While he has never won a race at Texas, he is one of the best drivers at this track in the field on Saturday.

John Hunter Nemechek ($10,700)

Starting Position: 10th

Nemechek has run three career races here in Texas but none since 2019. In his three races here Nemechek has never finished lower than 9th and has two top 5 finishes as well. Nemechek will be in the #54 car for Joe Gibbs Racing on Saturday, far and away the best equipment he has been in any of his previous Texas races. With the way this car has run in 2021, I will say that JHN is my pick to win this race.

Harrison Burton ($9,900)

Starting Position: 8th

Harrison Burton won this race last season by leading 24 total laps. Earlier this season Burton did not fare well here as he finished 30th thanks to a crash with just five laps to go. Outside of that one poor finish, Burton has performed well. Looking back over this season at this track type, Burton has finished top 10 in all three races including a third-place finish at Charlotte.

As with every race in 2021 both AJ Allmendinger ($10,500 – P1) and Autin Cindric ($9,800 – P2) are great plays but are somewhat risky because of their starting position. I do prefer Cindric because of his lower salary.

Other Options: Justin Haley ($9,200 – P4), Brett Moffitt ($9,400 – P26), Noah Gragson ($9,600 – P5)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Daniel Hemric ($8,800)

Starting Position: 3rd

Will Daniel Hmeric ever get a win? Probably, but I’ve stopped trying to predict when that will happen. Hemric has been successful here at Texas since the repaving was down in 2017. In three races since then, Hemric has finished top 10 in all three, including two top 5’s, and has led laps in all three races including this season when he finished 4th and led 13 laps.

Ryan Sieg ($7,300)

Starting Position: 22nd

Sieg has been consistently around the top 10 every race (minus the two he had mechanical issues) since the repave was done in 2017. Since then, Sieg has had four finishes between 10th and 12th in five races, the outlier being an 18th place finish in the first race of 2018. Seig projects as a mid-teens driver for me with top 10 upside.

Brandon Brown ($7,900)

Starting Position: 18th

Brown has six career races at Texas and has only finished outside the top 20 one time (Fall race in 2019). In those six races, Brown has one top 5 and two top 10’s. Earlier this season here at Texas, Brown finished 13th which is about where I see him finishing again on Saturday.

Other Options: Jeb Burton ($8,400 – P13): Burton has three top 10’s and a top 5 in seven races at Texas, JJ Yeley ($7,400 – P33), Riley Herbst ($8,600 – P20)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Bayley Currey ($5,200) – P39: Currey didn’t even get one lap in here in the spring before his day was over because of an electrical issue. But, no need to worry he is not in that same car he is in a much better car on Saturday. Currey has been a high teens to low 20’s driver here in his career and while I am not sure he can achieve that a mid 20’s finish would do us just fine for this salary and starting position.
Tommy Joe Martins ($6,400) – P24: TJM has been another solid driver at Texas over his career. His one bad race was all the way back in 2014 before the repave so that doesn’t count. Since then he has a top 10 (this race in 2020) and has never finished lower than 21st. I look for Martins to be a high teens driver on Saturday.
David Starr ($4,900) – P36: Starr has been outstanding at Texas since 2018 (for a value tier driver). In the last seven races, Starr has five top 25 finishes including two top 20’s (20th and 13th). If we can get Starr in the top 25 he will smash value, be in the optimal, and potentially get someone a takedown. I see him more as a high 20’s driver, but with attrition he could easily pull off another top 25.
Dylan Lupton ($6,700) – P29: Lupton only has one relevant race at Texas and that was in 2018 where he finished 17th. This week though, Lupton is in much better equipment (Sam Hunt #26) and should be a threat for another top 20, maybe even top 15. My strategy is to play three top tier drivers, but if you want to be different and go with 2, Lupton is a grat mid/value fringe option on Saturday.
Ryan Vargas ($5,100) – P30: Vargas had a decent 24th place finish at Texas earlier this season, but he was in the 4 car, this week he is back in the #6. Last season at this race, Vargas drove the #6 to an 8th place finish. I do not expect a repeat performance but I do see Vargas finish top 20 on Saturday which would be great value for his salary.
Jesse Little ($5,400) – P34: Little had a rough day here in the spring and finished 29th because of mechanical issues. In 2020 though, Little had finishes of 14th and 15th here, allbeit in better equipment. I still think there is upside here with Little though for his price. I see him as a low to mid 20’s driver in this race, as long as his car holds up.
Jeremy Clements ($6,100) – P14: Clements is typically a safe play, even when he starts in the teens. Of course with any race, carnage can happen he occasionally gets caught up in it but Clements is a smart driver who tends to finish around where he starts. I think Clements is a mid to high teens driver with top 10 upside if things fall his way.

4 years ago 0 comments

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NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Charlotte Roval 10/10

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Elimimation Sunday from The Roval!

This Sunday is the last race of the second round of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs and only eight of the remaining 12 drivers can advance. Looking at what needs to happen, both Alex Bowman ($8,900) and William Byron ($9,700) must win to move on so their strategy will be different. Christopher Bell ($8,400) probably needs to win, but if it falls apart for one of the drivers ahead of him he could sneak in. Lastly, Kevin Harvick ($8,200) can get in if either Elliott or Kyle Busch falter, which is unlikely so it looks like Harvick may need Ryan Blaney to have a bad race which is more likely for Harvick to move on. I mention all this because some of these drivers will make different decisions when it comes to pitting to pick up stage points.

As for the race itself, there is a good chance we have some slight carnage on Sunday afternoon. NASCAR has decided to, smartly, remove the black and yellow bumps along the backstretch that caused a lot of problems on Saturday. This should lead to fewer cars getting torn up and leave us with a cleaner race.

The Elite (No, not Kenny Omega and the Young Bucks)

Three drivers are ELITE when it comes to road courses and I plan on having plenty of exposure to all three and will try to fit two of them in every lineup. If you are a NASCAR fan or have been here all season you know who I am talking about:

Kyle Larson ($10,300 – P10), Chase Elliott ($10,700 – P8), and Martin Truex Jr. ($10,100 – P5

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

AJ Allmendinger ($11,200)

Starting Position: 33rd

Do not adjust your screens, you are not reading the Xfinity Series article, Allmendinger is also the top play (outside of the Elite) on this slate as well. Elliott projects as the highest owned driver, but Allmendinger is right behind him (40% PO). Nobody on this slate has more upside and is as safe as Allmendinger. I know it is sort of a habit in DFS to fade chalk on occasion, but when you have a driver in NASCAR who will probably be the highest-scoring driver on the slate you cannot fade him. Allmendinger has won three straight Xfinity races at this track and that experience will undoubtedly help him get through the field on Sunday.

Ross Chastain ($9,300)

Starting Position: 23rd

Chastain has been solid at road courses since joining Chip Ganassi this season. While he does have two top 25’s here at The Roval, those were in much worse equipment, now that he’s in the 42 I expect a top 10 from Chastain on Sunday. If you remove his two poor finishes (wrecks) at Indy and Daytona RC, Chastain is averaging a 7.5 finishing position.

William Byron ($9,700)

Starting Position: 11th

Byron is coming into this race with back-to-back 6th place finishes at this track and will need more than that to move on. Now, Byron has not been great at road courses this season, but he does have the 7th best total speed ranking at this track type which tells me he has speed, bt has just run into some bad luck. I see Byron as a top 10 candidate this week if he can stay out of trouble.

Other Options: Kyle Busch ($9,900 – P9): Kyle has been an outstanding road course racer this season and projects at sub 20% ownership. Denny Hamlin ($9,500 – P1): Hamlin is racing stress-free and is good enough on this track type to lead some laps early.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Tyler Reddick ($7,800)

Starting Position: 29th

Reddick is going to be semi-popular (>30% PO) and with good reason. Not only does he offer up some big-time place differential upside, but Reddick also has been a good road course racer. Last year at this track Reddick finished 16th. This season at road courses, Reddick has an average finishing position of 17.5 with three top 10’s. I see Reddick as a top 15 driver with a top 10 upside.

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,900)

Starting Position: 30th

It is pretty much a 1 and 1a situation with Reddick DiBenedetto on Sunday. Both project for similar ownership and points. In the last three road course races this season, Matty D has finished between 5th and 11th and has the fourth-best average finish in the Cup Series (8.7). DiBenedetto is probably a lock for a top 15, and like Reddick has top 10 upside as well.

Chase Briscoe ($7,600)

Starting Position: 22nd

Briscoe is one of the top road course racers in the Cup Series and as he gains experience he could become elite. This is Briscoe’s first Cup Series run at the Roval, but not his first time here. Briscoe won the first Xfinity race here in 2018 and led 33 laps. In 2019, Briscoe led 21 laps and finished 9th, and in 2020 Briscoe should’ve won but after leading 23 laps he spun with two laps to go in the rain and finished 18th. This season in the Cup Series, Briscoe has an average finish of 16th and has three top 10’s at this track type.

Other Options: Kurt Busch ($8,700 – P13): Busch has an avg finish of 6.6 (minus COTA where he wrecked in the rain) on road courses in 2021. Justin Haley ($7,400 – P38), Joey Logano ($8,100 – P3)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Cole Custer ($5,700) – P23: Custer is an above average road coure racer and has a 9th place here last year. Custer has an avg finish of 21st, but that’s skewed because of his 36th finish at COTA, he does also have three top 20’s this seaosn at this track type.
Ryan Preece ($6,000) – P31: Preece is probably going to be the popular play in this tier, but not chalky (there is a difference). I expect to see Preece around 25-30% owned. In his two races at the Roval, Preece has an avg finish of 17.5.
Joey Hand ($6,200) – P36: Hand has never raced in a NASCAR event, but he is a road course ringer. Hand will be in the RWR #52 car, but this car will be prepped by Stewart-Haas so he should be somewhat competitive. I expect a mid twenties finish from Hand on Sunday.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($5,600) – P18: Stenhouse starts high this week, but he has been good at this track type in 2021. Stenhouse has an avg finish of 16.4 (minus Sonoma where he had engine issues) at road courses and has back to back 17th place finishes here.
Corey Lajoie ($5,500) – P26: Lajoie has finished top 24 in all but one road course race (Daytona) and if you take that out of the equation he has an avg finish of 19.8. Lajoie is a mid to low 20’s driver in my opinion on Sunday.
Scott Heckert ($5,900) – P35: This season Heckert has run two races on road courses in 2021 in the #78. Heckert has finished 26th and 28th in his two races.
Timmy Hill ($4,900) – P39: Hill starts last on Sunday, but he will be in the slowest car in the field. We know it can wild here at the Roval, so if he can stay on the track long enough he could pick up 3-5 spots and make value. Previously this season on this track type, Hill has finished 27th and 29th both of those would suffice for his salary.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Charlotte Roval 10/9

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles. Since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Roval Racing…in the Rain?

This weekend the Xfinity Series heads, well, home to Charlotte Motor Speedway but not to run on the 1.5-mile oval, but instead on the Roval! Last season AJ Allmendinger ($10,700) led 12 laps on his way to earning the win. This year there is plenty of reason to believe we will see the same outcome.

In 2020 only 27 cars finished this race with only 24 of those finishing on the lead lap. This track is typically a bit of a wreck fest, unlike most other road courses. We won’t see anything like with the Superspeedway races, but we can expect a few cautions on Saturday. Because this is a road course we only have 67 laps in this race which means once again we are not looking to focus on dominators, but instead we want place differential plays and drivers who will finish well as well.

One thing to remember about this race is that we ran here in the pouring rain in 2020 and with rain potentially in the forecast on Saturday again we could see another rain-soaked race. A lot of the teams did mention last week that they hoped it did rain, especially the teams that had success here last year.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier

Since this is a road course, Austin Cindric ($10,300 – P1) is in play and should be considered one of the elite plays on this slate. With Cindric starting from the pole he projects for sub 25% ownership. We can potentially get one of the best road course races in NASCAR low ownership, it’s kind of hard to pass that up.

AJ Allmendinger ($10,700)

Starting Position: 14th

As I mentioned in the open, Allmendinger won this race last season and is the favorite to do so again on Saturday. Allmendinger is two for two at the Roval winning both races that he has run here. Allmendinger is going to be extremely popular, but he has the most upside in this race for me so fading him is just something I can’t see doing, especially if you only play one lineup. There are so many good options in the lower price ranges that fading the probable highest scoring driver just doesn’t make much sense.

Noah Gragson ($10,000)

Starting Position: 10th

Gragson is one of the drivers who talked about wanting it to rain here this weekend and I can see why. Last season at the Roval, Gragson led 16 laps and finished 2nd to Allmendinger. In his first race at the Roval in 2019, Gragson finished 5th. Gragson has run 14 road course races in his Xfinity career since 2019 and he has an average finish of 11.6 with 11 top 10’s and seven top 5’s. There is plenty of value in this field to roster both Dinger and Gragson in your lineups and feel comfortable about it.

TY Dillon ($9,300)

Starting Position: 25th

Ty Dillon has not run a road course race in the Xfinity Series since 2017, but before that, he was very good. Between 2015 and 2017, Ty Dillon ran seven road course races and while he did not win a race, he did had five top 10’s and three top 5’s. Dillon had an average finish of 7.4 in those seven races as well. Ty Dillon has not raced in the Xfinity Series at the Charlotte Roval, but he has run three Cup races. Dillon has an average finish of 20th in those races and his best finish is 15th. I think Dillon has great upside and could be a good GPP pivot off the chalkier plays of Allmendinger and Cindric if you want to go that route.

Other Options: Daniel Hemric ($9,100 – P3), Ty Gibbs ($10,500 – P12): Expensive and projects to be popular but could also win this race and be the highest scoring driver.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Alex Labbe ($7,300)

Starting Position: 20th

Alex Labbe was a road course ringer when his Xfinity Series career started and he has since become a solid all-around driver, but road courses are still his bread and butter. Labbe has been nothing short of spectacular in his three races at the Roval. In each of his three races, Labbe has improved his finish in each race. Labbe finished 13th back in 2018, then earned a top 10 with a 6th place finish in 2019, and last year Labbe earned his first top 5 with a 4th place finish. The Roval is Labbe’s best road course on the circuit and I expect him to come home with his third straight top 10 here.

Josh Bilicki ($7,500)

Starting Position: 31st

Bilicki is a solid road course racer and will be in the 07 that is usually driven by Joe Graf Jr. In three previous races here at the Charlotte Roval, Bilicki has an average finish of 21st and finished 13th here last season. Bilicki is not a safe play by any means, but he starts far enough back to provide the place differential upside we need to make value at his salary.

Gray Gaulding ($7,600)

Starting Position: 39th

Gaulding is having a rough season, but one of the few bright spots for this team has been his finishes at road course races. In 2021, Gaulding has an average finish of 21.7 at this track type and had his best finish on the season of 13th at Mid-Ohio, the last road course he raced at. In his career at the Charlotte Roval, Gaulding has finishes of 29th and 28th.

Other Options: Austin Hill ($7,700 – P40), Preston Pardus ($7,800 – P37), Sam Mayer (8.700 – P15)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Kris Wright ($5,700) – P38: Wright is driving for BJ McLeod this weekend, has great PD upside, and has a good history at road course. Oh, and this is a Stewart-Haas Racing prepared car. How do you not love this car?
Landon Cassill ($6,600) – P35: Cassill is another good road course driver as his 19.7 avg finishing position at this track type this seaon would indicate. His worst finish at a road course in 2021 is 27th, but his best was at the Daytona RC, 12th. That track runs similar to the Roval.
Loris Hezemans ($5,100) – P34: Hezemans has only 3 Xfinity Series starts under his belt, and one was a road course in 2021. At Road America this season Hezemans finished 22nd. Like I keep hammering home this is another good place differential play.
Joe Graf Jr. ($4,800) – P30: Graf has not excelled at road courses in his career, but he did manage to navigate the carnage in the rain here last season and finished 15th (started P31). This season he has more experience and is in the #17 RWR car that we love to use each and every week. Could Graf pull out a magical run and finish top 10, maybe, but is a top a 15 more likely, definitely.
Kyle Weatherman ($4,700) – P24: Like with Graf there is some risk for a negative score, but the upside is too great here to pass up. Weatherman usually does well at road courses, and in the two he’s seen more than once he has avg finishes of 15.5 (Indy GP) and 16.5 (Daytona RC). Last season at the Roval, Weatherman got caught up in an early wreck, so I don’t count that but looking at his history at similar track types I expect a solid DFS points day out of Weatherman
Brandon Brown ($6,000)- P16: Brown won his first career race last weekend and you can’t dispute the confidence that gives driver. In his Xfinity career, Brown is an above average road course driver. Brown has a 19.7 avg finish in 14 races. I feel Brown is a low teens play this week.
Spencer Boyd ($4,500) – P33: Boyd is consistantly a mid 20’s driver when it comes to road courses. We won’t see Boyd pushing for the lead or a top 10 most likely, but a top 25 finish at his price will more that suffice to make value.

4 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Talladega 10/3

rmferenc@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Weekend FInale from Talladega!

As expected Saturday’s doubleheader was full of big wrecks and plenty of cars hitting the junkyard. We did have two drivers getting their first career wins, which was not expected was great to see. Sunday will be much of the same, but I don’t expect to see a first-time winner, but you never know.

Looking back at how the spring Talladega race went we can expect plenty of cars coming from that back to finish with great days. In April only three drivers starting in the top 10 would finish there and nine drivers starting 21st or lower finished inside the top 20. While we will want to load up on drivers starting towards the rear getting 1-2 drivers starting towards the front will be a good idea. Looking back over the last nine races at Talladega no driver starting lower than 12th has won the race and the last time someone outside the top 20 has won was 2014 (Denny Hamlin – P34).

Even though we are looking for some drivers starting towards the front, we still aren’t chasing dominator points. In the first race this season here, 17 of 40 drivers led at least one lap and the driver with the most laps led (Hamlin – 43) finished 32nd.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Justin Haley ($9,400)

Starting Position: 38th

I expect Haley to be one of the highest-owned drivers, but there is a chance that he is good chalk. Haley will not be in his usually #77 Spire Chevy, but instead, he is in the Kaulig #16. Kaulig always has good cars in Superspeedway races in both Xfinity and Cup Series. Kaz Grala has driven this car the previous three Superspeedway races in 2021 and he wrecked twice but did finish 6th at Talladega. I expect Haley to have a similar day to Grala at Talladega on Sunday.

Aric Almirola ($9,200)

Starting Position: 20th

Aric Almirola and Superspeedways are a match made in heaven. Two of Almirola’s three career wins have come on Superspeedways. Almirola has also finished top 10 at Talladega in eight of his last ten races, but he did finish 15th here earlier this season. That finish was also when his team was still trying to figure things out, but recently the 10 team has been hitting on all cylinders with nine straight top 20 finishes.

William Byron ($9,800)

Starting Position: 10th

Byron is another driver who is becoming something of a Superspeedway whisperer. Over the last three Talladega races, Byron has an average finish of 5.7, a series-best, and has finished 11th or better in each race. Byron finished 2nd here earlier this season and 4th at this race last season. It may be a long shot, but I think Byron wins this race on Sunday.

Ryan Blaney ($10,700)

Starting Position: 4th

I like that DraftKings priced Blaney up for Sunday’s race, because of this his ownership should be extremely low. Blaney has been of the top Superspeedway drivers in the Cup Series for years now. Blaney won this race back in 2019 and then followed it up with a win in the spring race in 2020. At this race last year, Blaney got caught up in a late wreck, but he was back to his usual Superspeedway self with a 9th place finish.

Other Options: Denny Hamlin ($10,500 – P1), Kurt Busch ($10,000 – P14), Ross Chastain ($9,600 – P23)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Ryan Newman ($7,500)

Starting Position: 25th

I know, I know you guys don’t want to play Newman but at this salary on both sites and where he starts, he is a solid play. Newman may not be the driver he used to be, but at Superspeedways, he can still get it done. In his last five at Talladega, Newman has three finishes of 7th or better and finished 13th earlier this season here. In the last race at this track type, Newman finished 3rd at Daytona in August.

Chris Buescher ($7,400)

Starting Position: 24th

Buescher is one of the top Superspeedway drivers in the Cup Series and it is showing with his recent success at this track type. Before NASCAR penalized the 17 team at this race in 20202, Buescher had finished 6th, giving him back-to-back 6th place finishes. Buescher also ran well at Daytona in August where he finished 2nd. Buescher should be seen as a threat for a top 10 on Sunday.

Joey Logano ($7,900)

Starting Position: 8th

Joey Logano is a quality Superspeedway racer even though he hasn’t had the finishes to show for it. Earlier this season Logano did summersaults through the backstretch. Before this poor three-race stretch, Logano had five great races at Talladega where he averaged a 5th place finish. During this five-race stretch, Logano finished no worse than 11th, had one win, and had four top 5’s.

https://youtu.be/y28eIrg7x3g

Other Options: Landon Cassill ($7,200 – P40), Austin Dillon ($7,100 – P16)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Ryan Preece ($6,700) – P27: Preece projects as the highest scoring driver on this slate. At first glance that seems odd, but when you look at his history at Talladega I can see why. In his five career races here, Preece has never finished lower than 18th and finished 10th at this race last fall.
Erik Jones ($6,500) – P26: Jones traditionally does well at this track type. Earlier this season he was running top 10 when he was caught up in a last lap wreck taking him down to 27th. In two races here in 2020 Jones had two top 5 finishes. In August at Daytona, Jones finished 11th.
Ricky Stenhouse ($6,000) – P21: Stenhouse is one of the top Superspeedway racers in NASCAR. Yes, he may race too hard and that does result in his getting caught up or causing wrecks, but he also has had plenty of success at this track type. Stenhouse has wrecked in the last two Dega races, but prior to that he has three top 5’s and four top 10’s in five races.
Cole Custer ($6,800) – P28: Custer has finished 11th and 10th in the last two Superspeedway races this season. Custer is really only a play on DraftKings, his price is just unreasonably high in FanDuel
Bubba Wallace ($5,900) – P19: Wallace has 7 races at Talladega and if take out the two times he’s wrecked, his average finish is 18.4. As we’ve seen Wallace has been running much better and at Daytona in August he finished 2nd. Wallace is only playable on DK since FD’s algorithm is broken and priced him up like Kyle Larson on a 1.5 mile track.
Tyler Reddick ($6,400) – P13: Reddick is an under the radar top SS driver all of a sudden and he has back-to-back 7th place finishes at Talladega. If Reddick can manage another top 10 finish, he should make value at this price, on both sites.
Corey Lajoie ($6,900) – P29: Lajoie is a low 20’s driver at Superspeedways. Over his last five Talladega races, Lajoie has four finishes of 22nd or better.
Chase Briscoe ($5,600) – P17: Briscoe showed out well in his first Cup Series trip to Talladega with an 11th place finish. As the season has progressed, Briscoe has become more comfortable with his new car and team and I expect another top 15 from Briscoe with top 10 upside.

Lastly, if you want to employ our full #StacktheBack strategy there are a few of the real cheap guys that you can run. All of BJ McLeod ($4,700 – P32), Garrett Smithley ($5,200 – P37), Quin Houff ($4,500 – P35), Joey Gase ($4,900 – P36), and James Davison ($5,500 – P39) offer up some huge upside if this turns into something similar to what we saw happen in the Truck Series where more than half the field wrecked out.

4 years ago 0 comments

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