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Week 6 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Bills at Titans

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 6 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 6 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 6 NFL DFS Chalk: Josh Allen (FD $17,000, DK $19,200)

Pivot: Derrick Henry (FD $15,500, DK $17,100)

Contrarian #1: Stefon Diggs (FD $12,500, DK $14,400)

Contrarian #2: Ryan Tannehill (FD $14,000, DK $14,700)

Contrarian #3: Emmanuel Sanders (FD $10,000, DK $12,900)

The clear chalk on tonight’s showdown is Josh Allen, who started off slowly the first two weeks but has picked up the pace and is putting up numbers similar to his 2020 breakout campaign — averaging around 33 DK points over his last three weeks. While the standard pivot will be Titans RB Derrick Henry, the stud tailback will have a tough matchup against a stout Bills run defense that ranks fist in the league against fantasy RBs. There’s no standout bargain option under $10K at captain unless we consider a risky Julio Jones or the kicker/defense route.

Bills notes: I’m most interested in the productive trio of Stefon Diggs, TE Dawson Knox and RB Zack Moss, but both Emmanuel Sanders and Devin Singletary are in play for the Bills this week as well — as Allen has done a great job the past two seasons of spreading the ball around to many different skill positions and options. We could see monster games from both Diggs and Sanders, as the Titans defense doesn’t have anyone to keep with either of their route running skills and speed/separation abilities. Slot maven Cole Beasley has ben relatively quiet thus far in 2021, but he could have a breakout at any moment.

Titans notes: The best move is to probably fade Henry in most builds and count on a negative game script for Ryan Tannehill and the Titans passing game, working in shares of Jones, TE Anthony Firkser and stud WR A.J. Brown, who is questionable with an illness but is expected to be available. Aside from that, we have the disappointing but potent Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, a questionable Chester Rogers (groin) and an uncertain backfield after Henry, who could log more receptions than usual this week but will have a tough time returning value at that salary.

Week 6 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Feature many shares of the Titans DST, who will have its hands full with this Bills juggernaut offense.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget about Westbrook-Ikhine and Beasley.

Now that we’ve established some Week 6 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Josh Allen
  2. Ryan Tannehill
  3. Stefon Diggs
  4. Zack Moss
  5. Emmanuel Sanders
  6. A.J. Brown
  7. Derrick Henry
  8. Julio Jones
  9. Dawson Knox
  10. Anthony Firkser
  11. Bills DST
  12. Devin Singletary
  13. Tyler Bass
  14. Randy Bullock
  15. Cole Beasley
  16. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
  17. Gabriel Davis
  18. Chester Rogers
  19. MyCole Pruitt
  20. Titans DST

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!

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Week 6 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Bucs at Eagles

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 6 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 6 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 6 NFL DFS Chalk: Tom Brady (FD $16,500, DK $18,600)

Pivot: Jalen Hurts (FD $15,500, DK $17,700)

Pivot #2: Mike Evans (FD $13,500, DK $15,300)

Contrarian #1: DeVonta Smith (FD $12,000, DK $13,200)

Contrarian #2: Antonio Brown (FD $11,500, DK $12,300)

DK Contrarian #3: Zach Ertz (Don’t CPT him on FD, DK $4,800)

First off, there’s nothing really wrong with Tom Brady or his thumb. He’s the chalk and he’s fine, but Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is a close second and should be popular because of what he can do with his legs — a feature to his game that Brady lacks. If we want to properly stack this game for large-field GPPs, I think we need to think outside the box a little and pick the right value play at captain that lets us get a lot of big names in. That could be a guy like a very affordable Zach Ertz (since Dallas Goedert is doubtful on the COVID list heading into tonight) or the right Bucs skill position player.

Bucs notes: You really can’t go wrong with any of Antonio Brown, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and it’s hard to say who will be the most popular since Godwin was limited earlier in the week but isn’t saddled with an injury designation tonight, and both Evans and Brown are coming off monster games. There’s no Gronk again tonight, and I’m partial to Leonard Fournette in the backfield and Cameron Brate at TE since O.J. Howard has been doing a lot of blocking. And again — as well as Brady spreads the ball around, I think he needs to be in most of our lineups in cash and GPP. The Bucs DST is definitely an option because of Hurts and his propensity to make bad throws, but I have less interest in the kickers in this game since there will be so many TDs scored (judging by the 52.5 expected game total).

Eagles notes: I mentioned that Ertz will be a staple of my builds and is a great cash game option at flex, and I have plenty of interest in DeVonta Smith, Jalen Reagor and deep threat Quez Watkins. I’ll be fading Miles Sanders for the most part but have some interest in rookie RB Kenneth Gainwell since a blowout is on the table and he seems to eat up late-game receptions. There’s a path to GPP success if we follow the right narrative, and that might end up being some two-or three-man combination of Hurts, Ertz, the right WR and/or Gainwell with three or four Bucs.

Week 6 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Tread too much in the sub-$1K range this week. Not a lot to see here this week, although I did mention Marlon Mack in my last showdown column and he was in the winning milly lineup.

Now that we’ve established some Week 6 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Tom Brady
  2. Jalen Hurts
  3. Mike Evans
  4. Antonio Brown
  5. Zach Ertz (drop down if Goedert is somehow in)
  6. DeVonta Smith
  7. Chris Godwin
  8. Leonard Fournette
  9. Bucs DST
  10. Kenneth Gainwell
  11. Cameron Brate
  12. Miles Sanders
  13. Giovani Bernard
  14. Ryan Succop
  15. Jake Elliott
  16. O.J. Howard
  17. Ronald Jones
  18. Eagles DST
  19. Tyler Johnson
  20. Greg Ward
  21. Jack Stoll (Eagles backup TE assuming Goedert out)

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 6 action!

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Week 5 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Colts at Ravens

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 5 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 5 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 5 NFL DFS Chalk: Lamar Jackson (FD $17,000, DK $18,900)

Pivot: Jonathan Taylor (FD $13,000, DK $14,700)

Contrarian #1: Marquise Brown (FD $13,500, DK $16,500)

Contrarian #2: Michael Pittman, Jr. (FD $11,000, DK $13,500)

Contrarian #3: Mark Andrews (FD $12,000, DK $9,900)

There’s no question who the chalk play will be on Monday night this week, as Lamar Jackson is head and shoulders above the rest of the field in terms of pricing and upside. I may have one or two lineups that make use of Carson Wentz, but I’m not looking at the Colts B for my captain spot in any builds and would rather seek a pass catcher from Baltimore if I need to squeeze in some big playmakers. The Ravens DST is another possibility for DK, as they allow for smattering of options on both teams.

Colts notes: The two players I’m most interested in are Jonathan Taylor, who’s coming off his best game of 2021 and Michael Pittman, Jr., who has seen 32 targets and has 20 catches over his last three games. After that, I could find some bargain spots for Nyheim Hines — always a candidate to pop off in limited opportunities — and red zone targets Zach Pascal and Mo Alie-Cox.

Ravens notes: The Ravens can break the record for most consecutive 100-yard rushing games (43) as a team this week, as they’re tied with the mid-to-late 70s era Steelers. for that reason, I think we could see a few more carries for Latavius Murray this week but he’s far from the explosive runner that Jackson is and nowhere hear a priority for me. Mark Andrews has just as much upside in this offense and is cheaper, and the Colts will have a very difficult time containing Andrews and Marquise Brown, among others. James Proche is a cheap option but could be popular after his last game.

Week 5 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Go too heavy on the Colts DST, but use plenty of Baltimore’s high-upside DFS unit.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget about a sub-$1K Marlon Mack. You just never know when they are going to give him carries.

Now that we’ve established some Week 5 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Lamar Jackson
  2. Jonathan Taylor
  3. Marquise Brown
  4. Mark Andrews
  5. Ravens DST
  6. Michael Pittman, Jr.
  7. Latavius Murray
  8. Carson Wentz
  9. Zach Pascal
  10. Sammy Watkins
  11. Mo Alie-Cox
  12. Nyheim Hines
  13. Justin Tucker
  14. James Proche
  15. Jack Doyle
  16. Ty’Son Williams
  17. Ryan Blankenship
  18. Parris Campbell
  19. Devin Duvernay
  20. Colts DST
  21. Marlon Mack

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!

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Week 5 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Rams at Seahawks

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 5 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 5 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 5 NFL DFS Chalk: Russell Wilson (FD $15,500, DK $17,700)

Pivot: Matthew Stafford (FD $16,000, DK $17,100)

Pivot #2: Cooper Kupp (FD $14,000, DK $18,600)

Contrarian #1: Tyler Lockett (FD $12,000, DK $14,400)

Contrarian #2: Robert Woods (FD $10,000, DK $11,400)

It’s going to be close between Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford for who gets the chalk at captain, and just like in previous showdowns, FanDuel and DraftKings have the top priced QB flip-flopped, with Stafford the top dog on FD and Wilson more expensive on DK — where noted Stix nemesis Cooper Kupp is actually the most expensive option. Stafford’s receiving options are healthier on a short week, while Wilson is dealing with a bunch of minor-to-medium injuries to his skill position weapons, including Tyler Lockett, who toughed out a hip injury on Sunday, DK Metcalf (foot, limited in practice Monday through Wednesday) and Chris Carson (questionable/GTD for TNF with a neck injury). One of my favorite captain plays is actually Robert Woods, who the team keeps promising will get more involved. Both he and punt play Rams WRs Van Jefferson and DeSean Jackson are capable of large-field GPP brilliance if they catch a couple of big ones and allow you to get the main guys in there.

Rams notes: Darrell Henderson, Jr. (ribs) actually doesn’t have an injury designation for tonight, as he went through the same practice routine for a second consecutive week — being listed as limited on the first two daily injury reports before putting in a full session on the final one on Wednesday. He should handle the bulk of carries and snaps, but Sony Michel could always vulture a score or notch a few important touches. The matchup is great for almost all the Rams options, so the best bet is to mix-and-match based on narrative and find a good balance with these teams, as it’s projected to be a shootout (54.5 game total). TE Tyler Higbee and K Matt Gay are also in play.

Seahawks notes: The biggest news leading up to game time will be the status of Carson, and Alex Collins could be a nice bargain play if the first-stringer somehow sits this one out. I’m assuming that Metcalf will draw the coverage of Jalen Ramsey, so I have a little more interest in Lockett and Freddie Swain than normal, as well as TE Will Dissly, who only caught two passes (on two targets) for 5 yards in Sunday’s 28-21 win over the 49ers. Dissly should be more involved in this game and is very cheap at just $3,800. Jason Myers could get some additional FG tries if this one stays close, too.

Week 5 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Tread too much in the sub-$1K range this week. Another week with no bargains UNLESS Carson sits, and we could see DeeJay Dallas active, but he’s a super long shot.

Now that we’ve established some Week 5 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Matthew Stafford
  2. Russell Wilson
  3. Robert Woods
  4. Cooper Kupp
  5. Tyler Lockett
  6. Darrell Henderson, Jr.
  7. DK Metcalf
  8. Chris Carson (questionable)
  9. Tyler Higbee
  10. Van Jefferson
  11. Freddie Swain
  12. DeSean Jackson
  13. Will Dissly
  14. Matt Gay
  15. Jason Myers
  16. Alex Collins (bumps up to spot 9 if Carson inactive)
  17. Rams DST
  18. Sony Michel
  19. Seahawks DST
  20. Other Seahawks RBs (if Carson incactive)

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 5 action!

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Week 4 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Raiders at Chargers

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 4 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 4 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 4 NFL DFS Chalk: Justin Herbert (FD $15,500, DK $16,800)

Pivot: Derek Carr (FD $16,000, DK $16,200)

Contrarian #1: Austin Ekeler (FD $13,500, DK $14,400)

Contrarian #2: Keenan Allen (FD $12,500, DK $13,200)

Contrarian #3: Darren Waller (FD $13,000, DK $13,800)

Just like last Monday night, FanDuel and DraftKings actually have the QBs flip-flopped for the top-priced player. And we don’t have too many discounts available, making this a very difficult week to roster 4-5 of the best impact players. For this reason, we’ll have to consider more than just the above (obvious) options for captain, and I’m starting off that list of bargain option candidates with Bryan Edwards. We’ve seen the physical second-year receiver take over a drive like he did in the waning minutes of Week 1 against Baltimore, and the only thing keeping him exploding into the 15-20 point range has been the lack of a TD reception.

Raiders notes: Since the Cowboys ran for 198 yards against the Chargers in Week 2, we have to consider using someone among the Josh Jacobs/Kenyan Drake/Peyton Barber mess, and while the price on Barber is ridiculous, he’ll be in play if Jacobs has to sit this one out. If Jacobs is good to go after enduring the rigors of a pre-game gauntlet of drills, he’s a great FLEX play at just $7,600 with 20-point upside. Drake becomes the more attractive back if we assume a negative game script, but if we think the Raiders hang with the Chargers (who are 3.5 point favorites at home), they may end up sprinkling in more standard running plays. TE Darren Waller is my favorite receiving option for the Raiders, but the aforementioned Edwards, Henry Ruggs and Hunter Renfrow are all in play. Derek Carr may have the toughest test of his season so far given the tough matchup against Joey Bosa, who has sacked Carr more than any other QB in the league.

Chargers notes: I could see Justin Herbert scoring with his legs this week, as he’s the best rushing option for the Chargers after the electric Austin Ekeler. If there’s a way to get Herbert, Ekeler and Keenan Allen in my lineup I would love to, but that’s almost impossible unless we sacrifice Waller on the Raiders side. It feels like a good week to fade Mike Williams at his elevated price, but you’ll do that at your own risk. Williams has been playing a “power-forward” type WR-TE hybrid role with more red zone opportunities and targets against smaller DBs. The Raiders have a physical secondary and could be up to the task, so I just see more chances coming for Allen and Ekeler.

Week 4 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Go too heavy on the DSTs, which don’t offer much upside in a game that’s got a 51.5-point game total.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Live in the sub-$1K range this week. There’s just no production there this week.

Now that we’ve established some Week 4 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Justin Herbert
  2. Austin Ekeler
  3. Darren Waller
  4. Derek Carr
  5. Keenan Allen
  6. Mike Williams
  7. Bryan Edwards
  8. Josh Jacobs (questionable)
  9. Hunter Renfrow
  10. Henry Ruggs
  11. Kenyan Drake
  12. Peyton Barber (higher if Jacobs sits)
  13. Jared Cook
  14. Daniel Carlson
  15. Tristan Vizcaino
  16. Raiders DST
  17. Chargers DST
  18. Jared Guyton
  19. Zay Jones
  20. Fabian Moreau

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!

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Week 4 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Jaguars at Bengals

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 4 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 4 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 4 NFL DFS Chalk: Joe Burrow (FD $15,000, DK $17,400)

Pivot: Joe Mixon (FD $14,000, DK $16,500)

Contrarian #1: Ja’Marr Chase (FD $15,300, DK $12,500)

Contrarian #2: Marvin Jones, Jr. (FD $11,500, DK $12,900)

Contrarian #3: James Robinson (FD $12,000, DK $14,100)

Choosing your captain is going to be a wide-open proposition this week, as nobody stands out among the player pool as a guy you absolutely need on TNF. I think the best strategy is to narrow your player pool to the players most likely to succeed given what should be a high-yardage game (if not high-scoring, as the O/U is only at 46). Joe Burrow should be the chalk, however, with Joe Mixon and Ja’Marr Chase running slightly behind.

Bengals notes: There are two main items of importance to discuss on the injury front, as both safety Jessie Bates and WR Tee Higgins have been ruled out for Thursday’s contest. We’ll discuss the Bates injury in the context of the Jaguars offense in a bit, but the Higgins injury means that more targets will be concentrated among Chase, Tyler Boyd and Mixon — while C.J. Uzomah (just four catches on five targets through three games) remains a fringe fantasy option even in this showdown format. I’m a little less interested in the Bengals DST than I would be if Bates was playing, but they’re still a unit that could come up big against the mistake-prone Jaguars offense. Kicker Evan McPherson is in play, but not much of a priority, as the yardage totals in this game should be a little higher than expected. WR Mike Thomas is the only sub-$1K player I’d consider, and that would only be in 1/20 large-field GPPs.

Jaguars notes: Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars passing game gets a slight uptick with Bates out, as the Bengals safety is one of the best coverage DBs in football and a guy they use all over the field — in the slot, deep in coverage and in man against TEs and WRs (although some of that loss will be mitigated by the return of Bengals CB Trae Waynes from a hamstring injury). Marvin Jones, Jr. has been the most targeted WR on the team this season (and the most productive), but I think they’ll find some ways to get Laviska Shenault, Jr. the ball a bit more in this matchup given the defensive shakeup on the Bengals. The other main options are D.J. Chark, Jr. (why is everybody a JUNIOR?) and James Robinson, who has resumed more of a bell cow role in the offense, logging 15 carries and six targets last week against the Cards, The Jaguars DST is also really cheap, and is just a dart throw play in large-field GPPs since they’ve yet to reach double digits in any DK contest this year. Still — they offer the most consistent production of any FLEX option under $4K, even with the glaring possibility of negative points. And don’t forget about TEs Dan Arnold (who makes the TNF showdown write-up two weeks in a row as he was acquired earlier this week from the Panthers) and Jacob Hollister, a $1K punt play who was targeted six times by Lawrence last week en route to 2-15-0. Josh Lambo is out tonight, and I don’t know if new Jags kicker Matthew Wright will be added to the player pool before lock — but I’d avoid him unless he’s a late addition and really cheap.

Week 4 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Tread too much in the sub-$1K range this week. It’s basically just Hollister and Thomas, and they are 1/20 or 2/20 GPP plays at best.

Now that we’ve established some Week 3 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Joe Burrow
  2. Joe Mixon
  3. Ja’Marr Chase
  4. Marvin Jones, Jr.
  5. James Robinson
  6. Tyler Boyd
  7. Trevor Lawrence
  8. Laviska Shenault, Jr.
  9. D.J. Chark, Jr.
  10. Bengals DST
  11. Dan Arnold
  12. Jaguars DST
  13. C.J. Uzomah
  14. Evan McPherson
  15. Auden Tate
  16. Chris Evans
  17. Carlos Hyde
  18. Jacob Hollister
  19. Mike Thomas
  20. Jamal Agnew

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 4 action!

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Week 3 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Eagles at Cowboys

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 3 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first TNF showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 3 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 3 NFL DFS Chalk: Dak Prescott (FD $16,000, DK $16,800)

Pivot: Jalen Hurts (FD $16,500, DK $16,500)

Contrarian #1: Ezekiel Elliott (FD $12,000, DK $12,600)

Contrarian #2: DeVonta Smith(FD $10,500, DK $10,800)

Contrarian #3: CeeDee Lamb (FD $12,500, DK $14,700)

FanDuel and DraftKings actually have Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts flip-flopped for the top-priced player, so that could some into play in determining who’s chalkier on either site. Hurts has the better matchup overall, but the Cowboys are favored by 3 points. We can probably pencil in Hurts at captain since he should have plenty of time to throw and use his legs, and I think Prescott is too expensive given both Amari Cooper‘s ribs issue (he’ll play with a flak jacket on and is a risk to reaggravate the injury) and the emergence of both Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard after Prescott’s huge Week 1. Playing Eagles WR DeVonta Smith at Captain could allow us to Hurts and a couple big-time Dallas players.

Eagles notes: Hurts is the main target for me because of what he can do with his legs as well. I’m interested in getting exposure to one or both of the Eagles TEs, though the production from Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz is just difficult to predict. The tight ends will have to be more involved than last Sunday, when Goedert didn’t have his first catch until the second half and finished the just two receptions (on two targets) for 24 yards. Ertz is off the COVID list now, and had just one reception (one target) for 6 yards in Week 2, but could see 3-5 targets this week. I don’t think Miles Sanders is a huge priority this week, though I might grab some Kenneth Gainwell exposure as a cheap play in a negative game script. Smith is the best option at WR, but I’ll have shares of Jalen Reagor given his upside.

Cowboys notes: We may be able to get away without Prescott, but there are avenues where we get both him and Hurts in some lineups. Ezekiel Elliott might be the top play from a contrarian perspective this week. I have little interest in Cooper, and will get most of my WR exposure with CeeDee Lamb and Cedrick Wilson. Pollard could be used as a WR as well, and I think both he and Zeke are in play this week for the Cowboys against the Eagles run defense. I’ll also have shares of Blake Jarwin and kicker Greg Zuerlein.

Week 3 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a Week 1 NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Go too heavy on the DSTs, which don’t offer much upside in a game that should exceed the 51-point game total.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Live in the sub-$1K range this week. There’s just no production there.

Now that we’ve established some Week 1 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Dak Prescott
  2. Jalen Hurts
  3. Ezekiel Elliott
  4. DeVonta Smith
  5. CeeDee Lamb
  6. Dallas Goedert
  7. Jalen Reagor
  8. Miles Sanders
  9. Amari Cooper (ribs)
  10. Kenneth Gainwell
  11. Tony Pollard
  12. Cedrick Wilson
  13. Dalton Schultz
  14. Blake Jarwin
  15. Quez Watkins
  16. Greg Zuerlein
  17. Zach Ertz
  18. Jake Elliott
  19. Eagles DST
  20. Cowboys DST

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!

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Week 3 DFS Sunday Night NFL Showdown: Packers at 49ers

Jason Mezrahi
written by Jason Mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with the Sunday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 3 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: Please take a look at our optimizer if you are mass entering lineups!

Sunday Night NFL Showdown CAPTAIN / MVP candidates

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Sunday Night NFL Showdown Captain Player Pool:

  • Aaron Rodgers
  • Aaron Jones
  • Davante Adams
  • Trey Sermon (lock in either captain or flex)
  • Deebo Samuel (best past catcher option on 49ers)
  • Brandon Aiyuk
  • George Kittle
  • Marqez Valdes-Scantling

Flex Player Pool:

  • Aaron Rodgers
  • Aaron Jones
  • Davante Adams
  • Trey Sermon (lock in either captain or flex)
  • Deebo Samuel (best past catcher option on 49ers)
  • Jimmy Garoppolo
  • George Kittle
  • Brandon Aiyuk
  • Marqez Valdes-Scantling
  • Allen Lazard
  • AJ Dillon
  • Robbie Gould
  • Robert Tonyan
  • Ross Dwelley
  • Trent Sherfield
  • Jauan Jennings
  • Jacques Patrick
  • Kyle Juszczyk
  • Mohamed Sanu
  • Kerryon Johnson
  • Trenton Cannon
  • Randall Cobb
  • 49ers D
  • Packers D

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

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Week 3 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Panthers at Texans

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 3 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 3 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 3 NFL DFS Chalk: Christian McCaffrey (FD $17,500, DK $20,100)

Pivot: Sam Darnold (FD $15,000, DK $16,800)

Contrarian #1: D.J. Moore (FD $14,000, DK $15,900)

Contrarian #2: Brandin Cooks (FD $13,000, DK $15,000)

Contrarian #3: Panthers DST (DK $9,300)

Given how he’s used and the yardage props (136.5 rushing + receiving yards) that are posted for tonight, Christian McCaffrey has to be the chalk play, but Sam Darnold should probably be the closest pivot since he has his full complement of receiving weapons’ and the Panthers are 8-point favorites. It’s not going to be easy to get both Darnold and McCaffrey in lineups this week because of their inflated salaries, but it’s possible.

Panthers notes: The Panthers offense is mainly Darnold, McCaffrey and D.J. Moore, but Robby Anderson offers some upside at a discount. Stacking up the main options from these teams is near impossibility with any one of the Panthers corps at captain. With pricing so tight, we’re forced to look at kicker Zane Gonzalez, TE Dan Arnold and rookie WR Terrace Marshall, Jr. as the best fringe options. TE Ian Thomas is a punt play I might grab some shares of, and we could see more touches for rookie Chuba Hubbard if the game gets out of hand early. Brandon Zylstra scored a big TD last week and could be relevant tonight, but I’m more interested in the Panthers DST for the extra $1,600. They could be worth using at captain as well if that gets us both McCaffrey, Darnold and the main offensive weapon for the Texans.

Texans notes: Davis Mills is not even close to being ready for prime time, so I have little interest in jamming him into builds this week. The Texans projected team total is just 17.25 points, so the main focus of our lineups should be Brandin Cooks, bargain option Chris Conley (who saw his snap share rise up to 90 in Week 2 with the injuries to Danny Amendola and Nico Collins — both out tonight). I’m also comfortable facing Mark Ingram, since we’ll likely see more of both Phillip Lindsay and David Johnson on the short week and assuming a game script that forces Mills to pepper his RBs with dump-offs. Sure, the Texans could just feed Ingram and the other backs all day and find enough success to keep it close, but I just don’t see this happening too far into the second half. Other worthwhile options include TE Jordan Akins and former Bears WR Anthony Miller, who could be in the mix if he suits up tonight. The only sub-$1K guys I see who could contributing are Andre Roberts (who may not see as many snaps if Miller is active) and Rex Burkhead, but he’s probably only an option if one or more of the main Houston RBs sits this one out.

Week 3 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar. I’ve built one lineup so far that leaves $1K on the table, and I’m fine leaving up to about $2K out there if the narrative makes sense. It could get weird tonight, even with the tight pricing.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Tread too much in the sub-$1K range this week. Houston WRs Miller and Conley are about as cheap as I’ll go, even if both are viable in this particular showdown.

Now that we’ve established some Week 3 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Christian McCaffrey
  2. Sam Darnold
  3. D.J. Moore
  4. Brandin Cooks
  5. Robby Anderson
  6. Davis Mills
  7. Mark Ingram
  8. Panthers DST
  9. Phillip Lindsay
  10. Dan Arnold
  11. David Johnson
  12. Terrace Marshall, Jr.
  13. Chris Conley
  14. Jordan Akins
  15. Brandon Zylstra
  16. Zane Gonzalez
  17. Joey Slye
  18. Anthony Miller
  19. Ian Thomas
  20. Chuba Hubbard
  21. Texans DST
  22. Andre Roberts
  23. Rex Burkhead

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!

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Week 2 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Lions at Packers

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 2 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first TNF showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 2 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 2 NFL DFS Chalk: Aaron Rodgers (FD $16,000, DK $17,100)

Pivot: Davante Adams (FD $15,000, DK $17,700)

Contrarian #1: Aaron Jones (FD $12,500, DK $15,600)

Contrarian #2: Jared Goff (FD $14,500, DK $15,000)

Contrarian #3: T.J. Hockenson (FD $11,000, DK $14,400)

I have to believe that despite Davante Adams being the most expensive player on the slate and a poor week 1 performance from three-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers, the Packers QB will be the chalk for showdown captain. The Lions secondary is now without Jeff Okudah (again) and there’s a lot of new faces on a team that in Week 1 only had to contend with Jimmy Garoppolo. Rodgers is poised for a bounceback game at home on prime time — his favorite time to shine. There’s probably enough value in the Lions secondary receiving options to warrant using Rodgers at captain and just finding ways to fit Adams and some bargain pieces.

Packers notes: Rostering Rodgers/Adams somewhere in your six slots is the priority here, and Randall Cobb ($3K captain/$2K flex) offers perhaps the best value among the other skills positions for the Packers. Marques Valdez-Scantling saw eight targets in Week 1, but I’m still more interested in Aaron Jones and Robert Tonyan as the most important offensive weapons not named “Davante.” Tonyan hasn’t traditionally done as much work between the 20s and has done most of his eating in the red zone, but a new game plan for confusing a relatively weak nickel/LB corps means he could see a few extra check-down targets this week. I’d also expect the touches and targets for Jones to at least double what he saw in Week 1 (five carries, two targets), but the new Lions base defensive scheme could be vulnerable to a big day from Jones, since there’s just three down linemen, two outside linebackers and two off-ball, “inside” LBs — more of a 5-2 front with the two edge players standing up instead of having hands in the dirt. For that reason, we could see A.J. Dillon used more this week, but he only played 16 snaps in Week 1.

Lions notes: If we ignore the running games altogether, there’s a clear path to getting Jared Goff with T.J. Hockenson and a value WR along with Rodgers/Adams if we take a shot on Cobb at captain, but that’s more of a longshot build. With the injuries to Lions WRs Tyrell Williams (out, concussion) and Khalif Raymond (thigh, questionable) the smart move might be to eliminate the always risky Goff from our builds and focus on Hockenson along with cheap WRs Quintez Cephus (six targets in Week 1) and rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown (3-50-0 on four targets in his debut). D’Andre Swift is perhaps the most dynamic player in the Lions offense and was a target monster in Week 1` (8-65-1 on 11 targets to go along with 39 rushing yards), but he’s questionable despite being expected to suit up in the contest. Former Packer RB Jamaal Williams had solid Week 1 as well, finishing with 8-56-0 receiving on nine targets and racking up 54 rushing yards on just nine carries. If the Packers jump out to a big lead like the 49ers did in Week 1, we could see similar totals in the MNF game script.

Week 2 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a Week 1 NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Go too heavy on the DSTs, which are both weak and don’t offer much upside in a game that should exceed the 49-point game total.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Play too much Jared Goff. He’s not that good, and we know this.

Now that we’ve established some Week 1 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Aaron Rodgers
  2. Davante Adams
  3. T.J. Hockenson
  4. Aaron Jones
  5. D’Andre Swift
  6. Jared Goff
  7. Robert Tonyan
  8. Jamaal Williams
  9. Randall Cobb
  10. Quintez Cephus
  11. Amon-Ra St. Brown
  12. Marques Valdez-Scantling
  13. A.J. Dillon
  14. Packers DST
  15. Allen Lazard
  16. Mason Crosby
  17. Trinity Benson
  18. Austin Seibert
  19. Lions DST
  20. Marcedes Lewis
  21. Daniel Fells
  22. Kylin Hill

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!

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