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mvp

FanDuel Super Bowl Showdown: Bengals vs. Rams

The NFL DFS season concludes with the showdown slates for the Super Bowl, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big in the big game!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021. This article will focus on the FanDuel contests, rules and pricing.

Let’s get to the game!

Super Bowl NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences on the MVP slot on FanDuel: FD doesn’t assess a salary penalty but still bumps the points scored to 1.5x – a crucial factor in who we choose since the chalkiest player is that much more chalky on FD.

Super Bowl Showdown NFL DFS Chalk: Cooper Kupp (FD $16,000)

Pivot #1: Joe Burrow (FD $15,000)

Pivot #2: Matthew Stafford (FD $15,500)

Pivot #3: Ja’Maar Chase (FD $12,000)

Contrarian #1: Odell Beckham, Jr. (FD $10,500)

Contrarian #2: Tee Higgins (FD $10,500)

Contrarian #3: Joe Mixon (FD $12,500)

FanDuel Value Play: Kendall Blanton (FD $8,000)

So, in writing a FanDuel-specific column, I certainly want many of the same guys, but we have to take some chances at the top slot, because there’s no penalty. As I said on the DK article, Cooper Kupp is once again the chalk. The NFL’s top scoring fantasy WR is drawing heavy ownership on FD as well, thought Matt Stafford is on his heels a lot more with these rules. I like Stafford, but Joe Burrow and the Bengals are who I’ll lean to more. I REALLY like going with Ja’Marr Chase as the top guy on FD in at least half of my large-field GPP entries.

As I said, one of the main reasons Burrow has had so much success is the play of rookie WR Chase — Burrow’s teammate at LSU and a certified surprise given his depleted draft stick last April and the struggles he faced during training camp and the preseason. Chase doesn’t need much of a window to find the sunlight of the end zone, and if there’s one QB-WR stack we should focus on building around, it’s this one.

Bengals notes: After Burrow and Chase, the options are still plentiful, with the sure-handed and statuesque Tee Higgins offering immense upside in both the red zone and between the 20s, veteran WR Tyler Boyd operating skillfully in the slot as a target-rich value play, and Joe Mixon — who’s useful on just about any down and distance as well and effective in the red zone as a bruising but nimble runner and pass-catcher. As was the case on DK, I’ll be crafting some lineups that include kicker Evan McPherson and C.J. Uzomah (questionable with a knee injury) if the TE can suit up and play on Sunday.

Rams notes: RB Cam Akers is a much better value play on DK, so I’m not as interested on FD. Tyler Higbee and Kendall Blanton are the same price on FD, so there’s a direct swap out if Higbee doesn’t suit up or is limited. I’d much rather play Higgins over Odell Beckham Jr. in single-entry GPPs and cash games, but OBJ needs to be considered for large-field GPPs as a leverage play. He’s not as risky as Boyd (my favorite leverage play on DK), and more expensive, but I could see him winning somebody a lot of money as the MVP. We know just how good he can be, and if coverage is overly focused on Kupp, he can hurt this Bengals defense with volume, red zone dominance and the TDs it takes to win on FD.

FD Strategy Notes: The strategy on FD is pretty simple. If you’re looking for leverage on the field, go with Chase or OBJ at MVP and play Burrow with Kupp and some Rams value. For cash games I want to squeeze a QB in the top slot and make sure I have Kupp and one of either Chase or Higgins in there as well.

Super Bowl Showdown: NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Be afraid to take some risks.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

Now that we’ve established some NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates for the big game, the best way (as always) to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Joe Burrow
Matthew Stafford
Cooper Kupp
Ja’Marr Chase
Odell Beckham, Jr.
Joe Mixon
Tee Higgins
Tyler Boyd
Tyler Higbee (questionable)
Kendall Blanton (direct swap for Higbee if he sits)
Evan McPherson
Cam Akers (questionable)
Matt Gay
C.J. Uzomah (questionable)
Darrell Henderson (questionable)
Sony Michel (higher if Akers or Henderson sits)
Van Jefferson (questionable)
Samaje Perine
Drew Sample
Ben Skowronek
Trent Taylor
Chris Evans
Mike Thomas

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for the Super Bowl action!

3 years ago 0 comments

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DraftKings Super Bowl Showdown: Bengals vs. Rams

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season concludes with the showdown slates for the Super Bowl, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big in the big game!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021. This article will focus on the DraftKings contests, rules and pricing.

Let’s get to the game!

Super Bowl NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences on the Captain slot on DraftKings: DK bumps both the points scored and salary cost to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on the site. This can sometimes allow us to build more creative stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Super Bowl Showdown NFL DFS Chalk: Cooper Kupp (DK $17,400)

Pivot #1: Joe Burrow (DK $15,900)

Pivot #2: Matthew Stafford (DK $16,200)

Pivot #3: Ja’Maar Chase (DK $15,600)

Contrarian #1: Joe Mixon (DK $14,400)

Contrarian #2: Tee Higgins (DK $11,400)

DK Value Play: Evan McPherson (DK $6,000)

It’s the Cooper Kupp chalk show this week as the NFL’s top scoring fantasy WR is drawing heavy ownership as the captain of about 65-70% of projected lineups thus far, but as good as he is, I’d like to start off our discussion with some thoughts on Bengals sophomore QB Joe Burrow.

Burrow suffered grade 3 tears of both his ACL and MCL on November 22, 2020 — Week 11 of his rookie season in a game against the Washington Football Team (now the Commanders). Despite being a few days shy of 15 months after that fateful date, a LOT has changed since then. What looked like a serious roadblock to a promising young QB’s career has melted away. The WFT has a new name. We’re still forging bravely through a difficult time here on Earth, with folks still getting sick and the many challenges of confronting and navigating a pandemic, and Joey B isn’t just recovering and rehabbing from the injury — he’s culminating a brilliant season with a trip to the Super Bowl, replete with a host of dangerous offensive weapons who have a nose for the end zone and the ability to take it to the house on any touch.

I don’t want to take away from the laudable accomplishments of Kupp after a legendary NFL season or Matthew Stafford leading this Rams team to the big game after toiling away in the purgatory of Detroit for so many years, but what Burrow has accomplished this season is otherworldly — the kind of comeback that’s fit for celluloid or the images of a flashing dreamscape.

One of the main reasons Burrow has had so much success is the play of rookie WR Ja’Marr Chase — Burrow’s teammate at LSU and a certified surprise given his depleted draft stick last April and the struggles he faced during training camp and the preseason. Chase doesn’t need much of a window to find the sunlight of the end zone, and if there’s one QB-WR stack we should focus on building around, it’s this one.

Bengals notes: After Burrow and Chase, the options are still plentiful, with the sure-handed and statuesque Tee Higgins offering immense upside in both the red zone and between the 20s, veteran WR Tyler Boyd operating skillfully in the slot as a target-rich value play, and Joe Mixon — who’s useful on just about any down and distance as well and effective in the red zone as a bruising but nimble runner and pass-catcher. The Bengals DST could be a surprising value as well (despite the matchup), and I’ll be crafting plenty of lineups that include kicker Evan McPherson and C.J. Uzomah (questionable with a knee injury) if the TE can suit up and play on Sunday.

Rams notes: The Rams aren’t exactly starved for offensive options in this matchup, but knowing who to play could be a little more difficult to discern given the injury issues surrounding RB Cam Akers and TE Tyler Higbee, as well as the absolutely dynamic play of Odell Beckham Jr. over the past few games. A great addition after losing Robert Woods to a season-ending mid-November practice injury, OBJ took a couple weeks to adjust to the playbook and find his happy place in LA, but promptly racked up 19-236-1 on just 23 targets over the first three weeks of the playoffs. Waiting in the wings to help our builds from a value standpoint are Sony Michel, TE Kendall Blanton (the possible fill-ins for Akers and Higbee, respectively) and even RB Darrell Henderson, Jr., who has a good chance to return from IR to be activated for Super Bowl LVI. The Rams DST has a chance to be part of the narrative as well, but they’ll need to get some pressure on Burrow and do what no other team this playoffs ahs been able to do — shut down the juggernaut passing game and prevent some of the quick scores that have punctuated their wins.

DK Strategy Notes: If we’re willing to fade Kupp, it’s pretty simple to get a nice-looking Bengals stack with Burrow/Chase at CPT/UTIL and another top-flight WR (either Higgins or Boyd) and still get a piece of the Rams offense with OBJ or a value RB. If we decide to play Burrow/Chase and squeeze in Kupp at another UTIL spot, we can still make do with the $4K+ for each of the remaining three slots.

Super Bowl Showdown: NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Be afraid to take some risks.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

Cooper Kupp
Joe Burrow
Ja’Marr Chase
Matthew Stafford
Tee Higgins
Joe Mixon
Odell Beckham, Jr.
Tyler Boyd
Tyler Higbee (questionable)
C.J. Uzomah (questionable)
Evan McPherson
Cam Akers (questionable)
Matt Gay
Rams DST
Bengals DST
Darrell Henderson (questionable)
Sony Michel (higher if Akers or Henderson sits)
Kendall Blanton (higher if Higbee sits)
Van Jefferson (questionable)
Samaje Perine
Drew Sample
Ben Skowronek
Trent Taylor
Chris Evans
Mike Thomas

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for the Super Bowl action!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 17 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Browns at Steelers

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big in one of the final Week 17 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 17 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 17 NFL DFS Chalk: Nick Chubb (FD $16,500, DK $18,300)

Pivot: Najee Harris (FD $15,000, DK $15,300)

Contrarian #1: Diontae Johnson (FD $13,000, DK $17,400)

Contrarian #2: Baker Mayfield(FD $12,000, DK $13,500)

Contrarian #3: Ben Roethlisberger (FD $10,500, DK $14,100)

Contrarian #4: Jarvis Landry (FD $10,000, DK $9,600)

DK-Only Value Play: Ray-Ray McCloud (DK $5,100)

I may end up fading the QBs entirely in this matchup in favor of the starting RBs, and with Nick Chubb in a great matchup against a weak Steelers run defense and looking like the chalk for CPT, the best pivot might be Najee Harris.

Browns notes: Cleveland has most of its COVID players back, including Baker Mayfield and Jarvis Landry, the main two players you should be rostering in this showdown after Chubb, But TEs Austin Hooper and David Njoku are capable pass catchers who can make a big impact in any week. The problem is that the Steelers are excellent at defending the tight end position, so perhaps we should be looking at deep threat Donovan Peoples-Jones and Rashard Higgins a bit more if we’re stacking Mayfield with Browns receivers. The RB situation is complicated with the possible return of Kareem Hunt, but he’s a fringe option at best this week if he suits up.

Steelers notes: Tight end Pat Freiermuth is probably the best receiving option on Pittsburgh not named Diontae Johnson, but both the embattled Chase Claypool and Ray-Ray McCloud could a few extra targets this week if the Browns defense is successful in stifling Harris. Chris Boswell and the Steelers DST make some sense as low-owned pieces who could account for significant points this week, but I’m really focusing on the RBs, Johnson and Freiermuth tonight.

Week 17 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Be afraid to take some risks.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

Now that we’ve established some Week 17 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Nick Chubb
Najee Harris
Ben Roethlisberger
Diontae Johnson
Baker Mayfield
Jarvis Landry
Chase Claypool
Pat Freiemuth
Rashard Higgins
Donovan Peoples-Jones
Steelers DST
Austin Hooper
Kareem Hunt (questionable)
Browns DST
Chris Boswell
D’Ernest Johnson (if Hunt is inactive)
Ray-Ray McCloud III
David Njoku
Chase McLaughlin
James Washington
Benny Snell, Jr.
Anthony Schwartz
Zach Gentry
Harrison Bryant

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 16 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Dolphins at Saints

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big in one of the final Week 16 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 16 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 16 NFL DFS Chalk: Alvin Kamara (FD $16,500, DK $18,300)

Pivot: Tua Tagovailoa (FD $15,000, DK $15,300)

Contrarian #1: Jalen Waddle (FD $13,000, DK $17,400)

Contrarian #2: Ian Book (FD $12,000, DK $13,500)

Contrarian #3: DeVante Parker (FD $10,500, DK $14,100)

DK Value Play: Mike Gesicki (FD $10,000, DK $9,600)

Alvin Kamara is the obvious chalk play for tonight’s showdown, but there are a few interesting pivots from both teams to consider, including Saints starting QB Ian Book, a largely unheralded rookie who gets the nod with Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill (COVID) unavailable.

Dolphins notes: Miami has a timeshare going on on at RB right now (starring both Duke Johnson and Myles Gaskin), so it’s much safer to look at the passing game with Tua Tagovailoa and the receivers. Both Jalen Waddle and DeVante Parker are available this week, as is TE Mike Gesicki, who offers decent value on both sites. While I have no preference among the RBs, I think Waddle and Gesicki are the priorities this week — though Parker is coming off his best fantasy performance (4-68-1 in Week 15 vs. NYJ) since Week 4 against the Colts. Kicker Jason Sanders and the Dolphins DST are also firmly in play

Saints notes: The untested Book is likely looking at a lower ownership than most QBs in this showdown, but since he’s an unknown commodity it’s a good idea to get some shares, even if it means generally fading the WRs — including Marquez Callaway and a questionable Tre’Quan Smith (hamstring). Kamara should be the focus of your builds this week but we could see more runs from veteran backup Mark Ingram as well. Kicker Brett Maher and the Saints DST are a slightly lesser priorities than their Miami counterparts.

Week 16 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Be afraid to take some risks.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

Now that we’ve established some Week 16 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Alvin Kamara
Jaylen Waddle
Tua Tagovailoa
DeVante Parker
Mike Gesicki
Ian Book
Myles Gaskin
Duke Johnson
Marquez Callaway
Dolphins DST
Tre’Quan Smith (if active)
Mark Ingram
Jason Sanders
Isaiah Ford
Brett Maher
Saints DST
Lil’Jordan Humphrey
Mack Hollins
Ty Montgomery
Nick Vannett
Adam Shaheen
Durham Smythe

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 16 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: 49ers at Titans

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The Thursday night showdown kicks off the Week 16 NFL DFS contests, and we’ve got the picks to help you win big tonight and make some serious green!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy and how it relates to Week 14 NFL DFS showdowns, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Week 16 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 16 NFL DFS Chalk: Deebo Samuel (FD $14,500, DK $17,400)

Pivot: George Kittle (FD $13,000, DK $16,800)

Pivot #2: A.J. Brown (FD $12,000, DK $13,200)

Contrarian #1: Ryan Tannehill (FD $15,000, DK $15,000)

Contrarian #2: Jimmy Garoppolo (FD $14,000, DK $15,600)

Contrarian #3 Brandon Aiyuk (FD $10,000, DK $12,000)

While it’s another pretty much wide open showdown in terms of CPT choice, Deebo Samuel maintains the edge over George Kittle for chalk, and it’s really hard to argue against either. Ryan Tannehill will get A.J. Brown back from IR for this one, so either of them could make sense as a contrarian play against a secondary that leaves much to be desired.

49ers notes: Samuel is the most explosive option for the 49ers, while Kittle is the most consistently productive with the highest floor over the past several weeks, but I’m still a big believer in Brandon Aiyuk, especially in a game that could have a little more offense than initially expected. Jeff Wilson has yet to settle into the role that Elijah Mitchell carved out before he injured his knee, and the Titans run defense is formidable enough that the Niners’ RBs are not a huge priority. I’m not against 2/10 GPP lineups featuring Jimmy Garoppolo at CPT and stacking with Kittle, Deebo and another SF piece against two Titans players.

Titans notes: I’d much rather stack 49ers offense than squeeze in Brown, but he’s got the most upside of any Titans player not named Tannehill. Dontrell Hilliard is a nice value since he could take the rock to the house, and I’m a little concerned that D’Onta Foreman‘s price exceeds that of Julio Jones, who i think could be the biggest beneficiary of Brown’s return and doesn’t have an injury designation despite leaving Week 15 early with a hamstring issue. Other value options include Geoff Swaim, Anthony Firkser and kicker Randy Bullock.

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense, and explore every option.

Week 16 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget to watch the inactives.

Deebo Samuel
George Kittle
A.J. Brown
Ryan Tannehill
Jimmy Garoppolo
Brandon Aiyuk
Julio Jones
D’Onta Foreman
Dontrell Hilliard
Jeff Wilson, Jr.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
49ers DST
Robbie Gould
Randy Bullock
Titans DST
Geoff Swaim
Anthony Firkser
Chester Rogers
Jauan Jennings
Jeremy McNichols
Kyle Juszczyk
JaMycal Hasty
Mycole Pruitt

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 15 action!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 15 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Vikings at Bears

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big in one of the final Week 15 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 15 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 15 NFL DFS Chalk: Dalvin Cook (FD $15,000, DK $17,700)

Pivot: Justin Jefferson (FD $14,500, DK $16,800)

Contrarian #1: Justin Fields (FD $14,000, DK $15,600)

Contrarian #2: Kirk Cousins (FD $16,000, DK $16,500)

Contrarian #3: David Montgomery (FD $12,500, DK $13,500)

DK Value Play: K.J. Osborn (FD $9000, DK $8,700)

Dalvin Cook projects to be the chalk at CPT, but there’s reason to believe a lot of folks will pivot to Justin Jefferson because of the upside in this matchup against the Bears — who are much better against the run. There’s also little standing in the way of Justin Fields having another big fantasy performance, as the Vikings defense is beat up and Fields is rolling n with a lot more confidence than the outset of 2021.

Vikings notes: Adam Thielen is questionable with an ankle injury, which means that K.J. Osborn‘s value takes a big hit if the veteran WR suits up. Kirk Cousins makes sense at CPT for contrarian builds and as a flex in 4-2 stacks, and Tyler Conklin and kicker Greg Joseph are my other to favorite plays on the Vikings, and we don’t really need to expand our player pool unnecessarily with this team.

Bears notes: After Fields, I have the most interest in David Montgomery and Darnell Mooney (with Allen Robinson still in COVID protocols), and TEs Cole Kmet and Jimmy Graham have seen their showdown salaries jump significantly in the past few weeks. Jakeem Grant and Damiere Byrd are also in play as a boom-or-bust options capable of huge plays despite limited touches/targets. I probably won’t be including either of these DSTs in too many builds.

Week 15 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Be afraid to take some risks.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

Now that we’ve established some Week 15 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Dalvin Cook
Justin Jefferson
Justin Fields
Kirk Cousins
David Montgomery
Darnell Mooney
K.J. Osborn (if Thielen inactive)
Allen Robinson (if he comes off COVID list)
Adam Thielen (questionable)
Tyler Conklin
Cole Kmet
Jakeem Grant
Damiere Byrd
Greg Joseph
Jimmy Graham
Cairo Santos
Vikings DST
Bears DST
Damien Williams
C.J. Ham
Wayne Gallman
Chris Herndon

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 15 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Chiefs at Chargers

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The Thursday night showdown kicks off the Week 15 NFL DFS contests, and we’ve got the picks to help you win big tonight and make some serious green!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy and how it relates to Week 14 NFL DFS showdowns, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Week 15 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 15 NFL DFS Chalk: Patrick Mahomes (FD $17,000, DK $18,000)

Pivot: Tyreek Hill (FD $13,000, DK $17,100)

Pivot #2: Austin Ekeler (FD $14,000, DK $15,300)

Contrarian #1: Justin Herbert (FD $16,500, DK $16,200)

Contrarian #2: Keenan Allen (FD $12,000, DK $14,100)

Contrarian #3 Travis Kelce (FD $12,500, DK $12,900)

Both teams have been hit by some COVID issues in the past two weeks (along with the rest of the NFL and world), but Patrick Mahomes has a near-full complement of weapons (missing just Josh Gordon) and will be the chalk tonight for CPT on both sites. There’s a case to be made for stacking up 3-4 Chargers to save some salary and using Justin Herbert in the top slot, but Mahomes has the current edge on the WinDaily optimizer over Herbert and Tyreek Hill.

Chiefs notes: Speaking of Hill, it’s been a while since he had one of his signature 150-200 yard games, but this could be the spot where he or Travis Kelce breaks loose with a monster multi-TD performance. With the O/U at 52 and the Chiefs 3-point favorites on the road, we should expect some fireworks from both offenses with a few key defenders missing. We can pencil in Clyde Edwards-Helaire for a heavy workload against a defense that’s vulnerable vs. the run, and my exposure to him will be about 4:1 over that of Darrel Williams, who still gets touches in big spots. Byron Pringle is about half the price of Mecole Hardman despite both carrying about the same upside and a similarly low floor, so I prefer Pringle at $2,600 if we need to squeeze in an extra Chief player. But kicker Harrison Butker is a better value than both of those guys anyway.

Chargers notes: Aside from the obvious trio of Herbert, Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler, who is listed as questionable but expected to play at less than 100%, we can narrow our focus to the always risky but sometimes rewarding Mike Williams, TEs Jared Cook and Donald Parham, Jr., and WR Jared Guyton. I expect Joshua Palmer to see much fewer snaps this week with Allen on the field and much fewer than the team-leading seven targets he saw against the Giants assuming the role of WR1 for the Chargers. He’ll revert to WR4 but could still be in play in maybe 1/15 or 1/20 builds. If for some reason Ekeler ends up sitting, Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley would likely split the backfield touches. There’s already word that Ekeler could be facing less than a full workload, so stay tuned to the pre-game reports leading up to lock.

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense, and explore every option.

Week 15 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget to watch the inactives.

Patrick Mahomes
Justin Herbert
Tyreek Hill
Travis Kelce
Keenan Allen
Austin Ekeler
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Mike Williams
Jared Cook
Darrel Williams
Jared Guyton
Harrison Butker
Byron Pringle
Mecole Hardman
Dustin Hopkins
Donald Parham, JR.
Justin Jackson
Joshua Kelley
Chargers DST
Chiefs DST
Joshua Palmer
Demarcus Robinson
Derrick Gore
Noah Gray

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 15 action!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 14 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Rams at Cards

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 14 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 14 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 14 NFL DFS Chalk: Cooper Kupp (FD $15,000, DK $18,000)

Pivot: Kyler Murray (FD $17,000, DK $16,800)

Contrarian #1: Matthew Stafford (FD $15,500, DK $15,600)

Contrarian #2: DeAndre Hopkins(FD $12,500, DK $14,400)

Contrarian #3: Sony Michel (FD $12,000, DK $10,800)

DK Value Play: Chase Edmonds (FD $10,000, DK $6,900)

Cooper Kupp edges out Kyler Murray as the chalk play at CPT for Monday night, but either makes for a high-upside play with almost unlimited scoring potential. Kupp is the highest-scoring fantasy WR this season, averaging over 27 DK points per game, and Murray posted 30.82 DK points in last week’s return at Chicago. Getting both in your lineup will be difficult this week, but it can be done, especially if we can find another value play to plug in at CPT.

Rams notes: I won’t necessarily prioritize Matthew Stafford tonight, but I have plenty of interest in Van Jefferson and Sony Michel, and to a lesser degree, Odell Beckham, Jr. Of course, we’re making the assumption that Darrell Henderson won’t clear COVID protocols in time for the game, so I’ve left him off my list of targets. Tyler Higbee is a risk-reward option but has been a steady contributor to the offense this season aside from weeks 2 and 12, and he’s a solid value at $5K in a contest that’s missing any viable flex options under $2K.

Cards notes: DeAndre Hopkins is no longer the best WR in football, but he’s still a huge part of the Cards red zone offense and has a 20-25 point ceiling. Chase Edmonds is eligible to return from IR tonight, and the Cards have been playing it pretty close to the vest if they intend on activating him for this contest. They are well within their rights not to disclose whether or not he’s been practicing since he’s currently on IR, but if he suits up, he could be a big-time value play on a team that likes to run the ball and will utilize his smarts and skills to do anything that’s asked of him. We’ll have to stay tuned to the pre-game reports before deciding if we have any exposure, and how much. If he sits this out, James Conner should get a huge workload. A.J. Green had just one catch last week and could be a sneaky flex play at just $4,800, and as usual, Christian Kirk is a boom-or-bust type with huge upside and a terribly low floor. The same can probably be said for TE Zach Ertz.

Week 14 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Be afraid to take some risks.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

Now that we’ve established some Week 14 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Cooper Kupp
Kyler Murray
Matthew Stafford
DeAndre Hopkins
Sony Michel
James Conner
Van Jefferson
Chase Edmonds (if active)
Tyler Higbee
A.J. Green
Odell Beckham, Jr.
Christian Kirk
Zach Ertz
Matt Prater
Matt Gay
Rams DST
Cards DST
Eno Benjamin (if Edmonds inactive)
Rondale Moore
Mehki Sargent
Ben Skowronek
Demetrius Harris
Kendall Blanton

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 14 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Steelers at Vikings

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The Thursday night showdown kicks off the Week 14 NFL DFS contests, and we’ve got the picks to help you win big tonight and make some serious green!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy and how it relates to Week 14 NFL DFS showdowns, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Week 14 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 14 NFL DFS Chalk: Justin Jefferson (FD $13,500, DK $16,500)

Pivot: Najee Harris (FD $14,000, DK $15,000)

DK Value Pivot (Steelers): Ben Roethlisberger (FD $15,000, DK $13,500)

Contrarian #1: Diontae Johnson (FD $13,000, DK $15,300)

Contrarian #2: Chase Claypool (FD $10,000, DK $11,100)

Contrarian #3 (DK only): Steelers DST (DK $6,300)

A couple of weeks ago the outlook for this matchup may have been a lot different, but in that time, Dalvin Cook was injured (but should return for this game), the Steelers bounced back in a huge way and the Vikings lost to the Lions — the first win for Detroit in the 2021 season. With the Steelers defense around full strength and tied for the fourth-lowest red-zone conversion rate in the NFL and Adam Thielen out for this one, I’m eliminating Kirk Cousins from the majority of my builds and focusing on the Steelers and Justin Jefferson, who will probably end up being the chalk at CPT with Cook’s shoulder somewhat of a question mark.

Steelers notes: Ben Roethlisberger could have enormous value against a banged-up Vikings defense, and he’s got a near-full complement of weapons (minus JuJu Smith-Schuster, of course). I’m inclined to stack up Roethisberger at CPT in Steelers-heavy builds with Pat Freiermuth and Diontae Johnson, though it’s a good bounceback spot for Najee Harris, who had his most effective stretch between weeks 3-8 but has slowed down a bit in his rookie season. Both Freiermuth and Chase Claypool offer big-time value given their upsides, though Claypool has been relatively quiet in 2021 with just one TD.

Vikings notes: Jefferson and ook should pace the offense tonight, but we can mix in some shares of Tyler Conklin and K.J. Osborn, both of whom have some aditional value with Thielen out. Since Cook is expected to play, we can probably eliminate Alexander Mattison from the majority of our builds, though I’m not opposed to getting some shares in case Cook is limited or takes a big hit and is forced to leave the game. I have much less interest in the Vikings DST but will have some shares of kicker Greg Joseph considering how the Steelers tend to stall drives in the red zone.

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

Week 14 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget to watch the inactives.

Justin Jefferson
Ben Roethlisberger
Najee Harris
Diontae Johnson
Dalvin Cook
Kirk Cousins
Pat Freiermuth
Tyler Conklin
Chase Claypool
Steelers DST
Greg Joseph
K.J. Osborn
Chris Boswell
Alexander Mattison
James Washington
Vikings DST
Ray-Ray McCloud
Benny Snell, Jr.
Dede Westbrook
Zach Gentry

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 14 action!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 13 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Patriots at Bills

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 13 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 13 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 13 NFL DFS Chalk: Josh Allen (FD $17,500, DK $16,800)

Pivot: Stefon Diggs (FD $14,000, DK $15,900)

Contrarian #1: Damien Harris (FD $12,500, DK $14,700)

Contrarian #2: Cole Beasley (FD $10,000, DK $11,700)

Contrarian #3: Mac Jones (FD $15,000, DK $15,000)

DK Value Play: Devin Singletary (FD $8,000, DK $6,900)

DK Value Play #2: Nelson Agholor (FD $7,000, DK $4,500)

Josh Allen is the clear chalk and it’s not very close, as his overall ownership could be near 90% this week. I like Stefon Diggs as the main pivot because he’s got the ability to score a ton of points over two drives, as we’ve seen him do to salvage fantasy performances in the past. Mac Jones is an interesting contrarian play because we could easily see him pay off the price if he can keep up with Allen, and with the Bills missing Tre’Davious White.

Patriots notes: I like both Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson but understand it’s tough for them to both eat, so I’ll deal with that by using both in 1/10 GPPs and alternating each in eight of the other builds, with just one without either. The price has come up a bit on Kendrick Bourne but he is a playmaker, along with Nelson Agholor, who could flash some serious game-changing value in lineups tonight if he can haul in some a red zone targets. The Bills are favored in this game but the Patriots have the kind of team that could bury them early if the offense gets off to a slow start. The Patriots DST could be as good or better than the Bills DST, so I’ll try to find room for one or two builds for each because turnovers could play a pivotal role. Hunter Henry is the best value play other than Agholor. Jakobi Meyers is a little out of my price range.

Bills notes: I’ll start off by saying I love the value on Devin Singletary tonight, but only if Zack Moss gets scratched again. IK like what Matt Breida has ben doing but he’s way overpriced for that low of an upside in this game. And let’s be honest, we just saw an RB duo put up big numbers against the Pats. I like the price on Dawson Knox as well, because he has two-TD upside. The WRS to own shouldn’t get to nuts outside of Diggs and Cole Beasley, though I’m partial to using Gabriel Davis considering the physical presence of an athlete him in the red zone. Tyler Bass, and his counterpart on the Pats, seem to be in play this week as well, since they both get so many attempts. The Pats attempt the most, and the Bills attempt the ninth most.

Week 13 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Be afraid to take some risks with the Patriots running game. It’s a timeshare but both get meaningful carries and the Bills unit, while tough against the run, hasn’t faced a bruising unit like these two underrated backs in a while.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

Now that we’ve established some Week 13 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Josh Allen
Stefon Diggs
Mac Jones
Damien Harris
Dawson Knox
Cole Beasley
Rhamondre Stevenson
Devin Singletary
Matt Breida
Kendrick Bourne
Hunter Henry
Jakobi Meyers
Tyler Bass
Nelson Agholor
Bills DST
Patriots DST
Nick Folk (questionable)
Brandon Bolden (questionable)
Emmanuel Sanders
Gabriel Davis
Jonnu Smith
N’Keal Harry
Zack Moss (if active)
Tommy Sweeney
Devin Asiasi
Isaiah McKenzie

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!

3 years ago 0 comments

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