We’ve got almost a full boat tonight with 13 games on tap and it’s not the deepest pitching slate we’ll ever have. It doesn’t help that we miss Sandy Alcantara because nobody wants to include the 6:40 games normally but we do have some top-shelf options. Let’s talk about them and the other pitchers we like in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/29 to find the green!
Cole wasn’t spectacular in his last start but for some reason, the Orioles have given him some issues this season. It hasn’t killed his overall profile with a 2.78 xFIP, a 3.09 ERA, a K rate over 32%, and a swinging-strike rate of 14.1%. His four-seam/slider combo has a whiff rate of at least 31.6% and has 130 of his 153 strikeouts on the season, while the Royals are 17th against the fastball. Cole has delighted in pitching in New York this season through 64.2 innings with a 2.09 ERA, a .235 wOBA allowed, a WHP of 0.80, and the K rate jumps up to 35.5%. Even the FIP/xFIP are below 2.30 and he’s just been a total stud at home. With the Royals no longer having their normal offense after trading Andrew Benintendi to the Yanks, it’s very easy to love Cole.
I’ve been pretty lukewarm on Verlander for the season and I do prefer Cole, but Verlander just keeps shoving almost every time he’s on the mound. His 1.86 ERA has certainly had some luck playing not it with a 3.34 xFIP and the fly-ball rate is over 40% as well. To be fair, the hard-hit rate is under 30% and the K rate is still over 26% so it’s not like he has no upside at all. This is going to be the sixth time he’s faced Seattle and he has thrown 34.2 innings against them this year with a total of 38 strikeouts and 10 earned runs. Six of those 10 runs came in one start so he’s pretty much smacked Seattle around this year and neither side of the plate is over a .260 wOBA and both whiff at least 24.4% of the time. Lastly, Seattle is 23rd against the slider and that’s been the best strikeout pitch for Verlander with 57 strikeouts and a 35.5% whiff rate so he’s well in play.
He’s made five starts since coming back from an injury and in four of them, he’s hit at least eight strikeouts, gone at least five innings, and even up five earned runs. In those four starts, his xFIP has not been higher than 2.86 and it seems like his rehab has solved whatever was plaguing him at the start of the season. Boston is down and out right now with the offense struggling and his K rate overall is up to 30.6% and the WHIP is down to 1.16. They’ve been playing five lefties lately and if they do again, that’s an advantage for Woodruff with a .244 wOBA, a 40.7% K rate, and a 1.53 FIP. His changeup is the weapon when he faces a lefty and it has a 56.4% whiff rate and the slider is the go-to against righties and that has a 44.2% whiff rate. It sets up the four-seam which has a .271 wOBA allowed and 46 strikeouts, leaving Woodruff as an excellent option.
He’s going to face quite a few lefties, which is not usually a good thing for Manoah since he has a .300 wOBA, a 17% K rate, and a 4.59 xFIP. However, this is the Detroit lineup we’re talking about and when they face righty pitching, they have the fifth-highest K rate at 24.3% and are dead last in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+. I’m perfectly willing to go after Manoah here with the quality of hitters he’s facing and he’s in the 97th percentile of hard-hit rate. Of his 106 strikeouts, 83 have come from the four-seam and slider and every one of his pitches has a wOBA under .300. When he does get a righty, the K rate jumps over 29% and the WHIP is 0.71 so he is still a strong option against one of the weakest options around.
Given the fact that Perez is facing the Angels, I’m interested to play him even though his 3.72 xFIP doesn’t really match the 2.59 ERA. The xFIP isn’t something that I’m really wearing because Perez has to have some regression from his 6.4% HR/FB rate so far and he gets enough strikeouts at 20.8%. In the past 30 days, the Angels have been 27th or worse in all of our major categories and their K rate has been over 27% against lefty pitching. Perez has held the right side of the plate to a .289 wOBA, a 21.3% K rate, and a 3.33 FIP and his changeup has been excellent. The wOBA allowed is down to .242 and it has a 32.5% whiff rate, although his sinker and cutter both have more strikeouts. Until the Angels force me to stop, I’m going after them with pitching.
You kind of have to ride the lightning if you’re going to pitch Snell because the downside is always there, but he’s putting together some strong starts. He’s scored over 20 points against the Mets, Dodgers, and Giants in three of his past four starts and it’s really just his fastball that is causing him pain. It has allowed a .430 wOBA and a .319 average but his slider and curve (39% of the arsenal) are incredible. They are under a .185 wOBA allowed and they both have a whiff rate over 43% and it is scary to see Minnesota rank fifth against the fastball. We also know that Minnesota can disappear, so this is one of the most volatile picks on the board. He is striking out the right side 28.9% of the time and the FIP is only 3.54, so he’s had some bad luck as well this season.
Honorable Mention
I truly don’t mind Shane Bieber against the Rays but at his salary, I just feel like it’s not difficult to get to Manoah or honestly even Woodruff. Bieber has a 3.29 xFIP to go along with his 24.3% K rate and he hasn’t been super consistent this season. However, this Rays lineup is far away from what we expected this season so the clear path for him is there to succeed.
Am I nuts to keep on playing Cobb? Perhaps, but if we believe in the numbers for every other pitcher, we have little choice but to buy them for Cobb as well. I’ll not have any issues throwing his last start out the window since it was the Dodgers and his xFIP is 2.98 and the FIP is 2.94, wildly out of place against his 4.26 ERA. His K rate is fine at 22.8% to go along with the 6.8% walk rate and sooner than later, the .332 BABIP should come down a bit. The Cubs have the 12th highest K rate against righties this season and they are only 22nd in ISO although they can be pesky at points. This is a team that needs to continue to be monitored around the deadline but Cobb’s splitter and curve both have a whiff rate over 28%. The splitter is the biggest key for him with a wOBA of .245 and it has 30 strikeouts so he has potential, even if it’s been obscured through most of the season. We saw Alex Wood was very popular yesterday so that could carry over into today.
I can already tell that I might have an unhealthy amount of Lynn since he’s under $7,000, he gets the A’s offense that on the year is 29th or 30th in OPS, OBP, wRC+, wOBA, and they strike out 24% of the time. Lynn also has a 3.83 xFIP against a 6.43 ERA, which is far more palatable than anything else. His K rate is only 21.8% but he’s not typically this cheap either and plenty of metrics would say that he’s been seriously unlucky through his 42 innings. The velocity is down just a bit for him but at the same time, his four-seam is still getting a 37.8% whiff rate and only has allowed a .280 wOBA. Lynn has a solid ground ball rate at 42.4% and even the swinging-strike rate is 11.7%, just 0.3% lower than last season. Lefties are still a struggle with a .393 wOBA and only a 15.3% K rate but the A’s simply isn’t a very good offense. There is still a risk for Lynn but he is too cheap to ignore to at least have some lineups with him.
Kyle Wright – Arizona is boom or bust for an offense but they are super lefty-heavy and that’s the weaker side for Wright. With him sporting a .300 wOBA, a 3.77 xFIP, and a K rate of 24%, this isn’t the best spot for him. While he did grab eight strikeouts against the Angels, that’s the Angels and his K rate dropped so much from May moving forward.
Joe Ryan – He could prove me wrong against a very average Padres offense (for now, rumors were swirling about Juan Soto) and Ryan has a 2.89 ERA which looks great. Then you see the 4.63 xFIP and get worried, not to mention the K rate is only 22.3%. If there are a bunch of lefties for San Diego, that could hurt Ryan with a 15.9% K rate, a 5.57 xFIP, and a 4.61 FIP.
Jose Quintana/Bailey Falter – I sort of like both of these pitchers and we can start with Quintana. He’s been very solid for the Buccos this season with a 3.70 ERA and 3.77 xFIP with only a 0.65 HR/9 and a 45.1% ground ball rate to go along with a 20.7%. Philly has fallen back toward the middle of the pack in our offensive categories but they are still a talented offense. Also, Quintana has a .313 wOBA and only an 18.6% K rate when facing a righty so that’s a concern.
For Falter, I really wanted to attack the weakness the Pirates have against lefties. They are no higher than 18th in any of the categories we talk about and they whiff 26% of the time, and that has climbed lately. However, Falter sports a 4.93 xFIP across 33 innings so far this year with a 5.18 ERA and a 49% fly-ball rate. I may wind up using a couple of cheaper Pirates where I need them tonight.
Dodgers (chalk again)
Brewers
Cardinals
Braves
Yankees
Blue Jays
Rangers
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/29 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Stack City, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
Thursday brings us our typical smaller slate of games. We have a solid-looking 8-game slate of MLB DFS tonight. We have a handful of very attackable pitchers.
Always make sure to read Adam’s Starting Rotation when setting your lineup. It’s hands down the best pitching article in the MLB DFS business.
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!
The regression monster will be coming for Tyler Alexander tonight. Alexander has predominantly worked out of the bullpen over the last couple of months. Tonight, he makes his first start since late April. While he’s pitched well on paper out of the bullpen, his xFIP tells us a whole different story. Over his last 13 innings of work, Alexander has pitched to just a 1.38 ERA. His xFIP however is more than 3 points higher 5.07.
He’s just giving up way too much contact at nearly 85%. A healthy amount of that contact is exactly what we look for when attacking a pitcher, hard and in the air. You can only survive so long giving up a .256 BABIP. At some point, those hard-hit balls will fall or leave the park, and against a solid Blue Jays lineup, they will fall and leave the park.
Core: When you use the Blue Jays against a lefty you build around Teoscar Hernandez and Santiago Espinal. Did you know that Espinal leads the team in many offensive metrics against lefties this year? His 17 wRC leads the team, as does his .934 OPS. He’s been one of their most consistent and best hitters against southpaws this season. Hernandez has also been one of their best. His .585 slugging percentage leads the team and he’s tied for the team lead with 4 homers against lefties. Both of these guys also have solid numbers vs. cutters and they’ll see plenty from Alexander tonight.
Secondary Pieces: After building out my core, I’ll look to add in Vladimir Guerrero, Matt Chapman, and Danny Jensen. Guerrero is the team’s best hitter and is always in play. The only reason I didn’t list him as a core is that he’s struggled against lefties over the past month. He has just a .036 ISO vs. them over his last 29 AB. He’s always, and I mean always, a home run candidate vs. lefties, and if you can fit him tonight get him in there.
All Blue Jays are essentially in play though tonight.
Not being able to use Shohei Ohtani as a bat in this stack definitely weakens it, but this Angels lineup is filled with value tonight and gets an incredible matchup vs. an awful pitcher. Spencer Howard is not a good pitcher. On the year, he has a 7.11 ERA and an xFIP of 5.11. While the ERA is exaggerated a bit, his xFIP being over 5 really tells us the story. He’s just not good.
Howard is someone that we can rely on for 2 things. Barrels and homers. He has just one game this season where he hasn’t allowed a homer and just one game where he hasn’t allowed a barrel. His HR/9 this season is a massive 3.55. While Howard has been pretty bad against both sides of the plate, he’s been especially brutal vs. righties. Righties have a massive .727 slugging % vs. him this season and an OPS well over 1.
Core: My Core with the Angels will start with Mike Trout. Oh, how I wish that were true. Really wish for a speedy recovery for Trout and his ailing back. Back to business. My core with the Angels will be Taylor Ward. Ward is having a solid season vs. righties. 10 of his 13 homers this season have been against righties and has a very respectable .834 OPS vs. them. He’ll see a decent amount of cutters from Howard tonight and in a small sample size has solid numbers. He has a .448 wOBA vs. them and a .333 ISO.
Value: After Ward, I’m going to just sprinkle in value since my top stack is going to be expensive. My next three favorite plays here are going to be Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh, and Phil Gosselin. All three of these guys are under $2.5k on DK tonight. They’ll provide us a ton of salary relief and flexibility to fit in the bats we want. My favorite of the 3 will be Jo Adell. In 83 plate appearances vs. righties this season, Adell has a respectable .744 OPS. He’s shown some power vs. them with a .430 slugging % and 3 homers. At just $2.2k tonight, he’s a solid value hitting in the middle of this lineup.
Do I think that the Tigers are a good lineup? I do not. Do I think that Yusei Kikuchi is a bad pitcher that is very attackable? Absolutely. Kikuchi has not had a good first season with the Blue Jays. His xERA of 6.26 is the highest it’s ever been in his career and the 5.12 ERA he’s had is also close to the worst. While he’s shown some flashes at times of being a solid pitcher, he’s also thrown more than his fair share of clunkers.
In his first start coming off the IL, he threw one of his clunkers allowing 4 ER and lasting just 2 innings due to severe control issues. Although we can’t expect him to walk another 5 Tigers today, his control this season has not been good. His 5.68 BB/9 is by far the highest it’s ever been in his 4-year career. When we attack Kikuchi, we attack him with righties. Righties have a .526 slugging % vs. him this season, nearly 200 points higher than what righties have.
Core and Value: My core with the Tigers tonight will be Javier Baez, Jeimer Candelario, and Robbie Grossman. Both Baez and Grossman have had solid years vs. southpaws and lead the team in both slugging % and OPS. Grossman has a .980 OPS vs. lefties this year and Baez has a .943 OPS thanks to a massive .590 slugging %. Grossman has been extremely strong against lefties over the last month too, with a .471 wOBA. At just $2.8k on DK tonight, Grossman is in a solid spot to perform and is extremely cheap.
Candelario is another solid value play tonight and is currently smashing the ball. Over his last 3 games, he has 8 hits in 13 AB. He’s as hot as anyone in the game right now and tonight is just $2.6k on DK.
I didn’t list the Dodgers as a top stack for tonight because you don’t need me to tell you to play the Dodgers vs. Jose Urena. They have a 7 implied run total right now and should get every bit of it. The concern here is there is a solid chance of rain throughout the game. And their ownership should be through the roof. Other stacks that have my interest tonight will be the Mariners vs. Jose Urquidy, Phillies vs. Zach Thompson, and Yankees vs. Brady Singers. Listen, did you know that the Yankees were just swept by the Mets? Now you do.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
We get a split slate today but the focus will be on the larger slate in the afternoon which is seven games. The pitching is not great but it could be plenty worse and we do have to deal with Coors Field again as well. Let’s talk about who we need to chase in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/27 to find green screens!
He’s not invincible with some below-average starts but he’s clearly the most talented pitcher available to us on the slate. Even with some frustrating starts, the xFIP is 2.89, the ERA s 2.20, the ground ball rate is 43.1%, and the K rate is 32.1% overall. It’s a little surprising to see the drop in K rate from over 35% last year because the swinging-strike rate is 16.3%, only 0.3% lower than 2021. He has turned to the cutter more at 56.4% and why not since it has a .257 wOBA and a 31.3% whiff rate. Both sides of the plate are under a .270 wOBA, neither WHIP is over 0.95, and the K rate is identical against each side as well. Minnesota is not the easiest matchup as they are in the top 10 in OPS, OBP, wOBA, wRC+, and ISO with a K rate of only 22.2%. I’m sure we’ll need him for cash and I’ll likely have plenty in GPP, but I don’t believe this is a must-have spot for him.
Gray has been simply lethal in his last 50 innings with a 1.80 ERA, a 0.94 WHP, and a 29.7% K rate. Am I a full believer in him? Maybe not but that’s not an insignificant sample and he’s looking good on the seasonal data as well. Neither side of the plate has crossed a .297 wOBA, both sides are striking out at a 25% rate or higher, and the xFIP against either side is under 3.40. The Seattle matchup certainly gets tougher since Julio Rodriguez came back last night but even with him, they are outside of the top 10 in all our offensive categories except for wRC+. The slider does really well for Gray with 63 strikeouts and a 40.3% whiff rate while Seattle is just 24th against that pitch. Just like Burnes, the matchup is not the best thing he’s ever going to find but the salary is reasonable. That’s not exactly what I thought I would say this year at $9,000.
Honorable Mention
It’s hard to get behind Logan Webb fully since he’s been worse against lefties with a .309 wOBA, an 18.4% K rate, and a 1.30 WHIP I do have to point out that the xFIP is only 3.64 and the Arizona offense is very boom or bust. They are ninth in ISO but 25th in wRC+ and 21st in wOBA. They’ve brought their K rate under control as well to just 22.7% so I’m more likely to play the other two.
I suspect Burnes/Javier is going to be the most popular pairing for pitching since he draws the Oakland lineup and is under $9,000. Pitching in Oakland is a great spot since he has a giant fly-ball rate of 59.8% even though he did struggle in the first start out there. He just didn’t have great control and he went 3-2 on a lot of hitters that night. Still, he has a 13.8% swinging-strike rate and his four-seam/slider combo have 108 of his 117 strikeouts on the season. The slider has a 39.1% whiff rate and a .231 wOBA allowed and his K rate when facing a righty is absurd at 41.9% with an xFIP under 2.95. Oakland whiffs almost 24% of the time and are in the bottom five of every offensive category we value. It’s hard to not consider him at this salary and with the slate context. It is worth noting that the A’s have gotten to the Houston starters so far and I wonder if the field reacts after Garcia got beat up a bit.
Overall, I don’t think Gallen is anything special with a 3.83 xFIP, a 3.31 ERA, and a 23.5% K rate. The WHIP is strong at 1.02 and his hard-hit rate is under 28% so it’s not like he’s terrible or anything like that. What is extra appealing for him today is he is better when facing a lefty with a .246 wOBA, a 24.5% K rate, a WHIP of 0.84, and an xFIP of 3.44. The scary part is Gallen relies on a fastball 49% of the time and it has a 17.4% whiff rate and a .290 wOBA allowed. It does lead his arsenal in strikeouts with 42 so that is good but the Giants are third against the fastball this season. It’s also a boost for Gallen that he’s pitching at home with a 3.24 FIP overall and the K rate is 25% so he’s absolutely in play.
On the surface, there isn’t a ton to love for Keller with a 4.34 xFIP, a 4.35 FIP, and a K rate under 16%. This is way more about the Angels and how putrid the offense is as the past 30 days find them 29th in wOBA, wRC+, and then 28th in OPS, OBP, and ISO with a massive 30.9% K rate. They also have the 10th highest ground ball rate which does help Keller and his 51.6% ground ball rate. Keller doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact at 25.4% and his slider is the main pitch while the Angels are just 18th against it. That slider has a 25.4% whiff rate and 30 of his 68 strikeouts. He does at least have both sides of the plate under .320 and the left side whiffs a little more at 17% so he’s got some potential for his salary, even if there is no safety involved.
Coors Field (I’m much happier with both sides of the game today)
Dodgers
Rangers
Astros
Brewers
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/27 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Stack City, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
Tonight we have ourselves a 13-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through. Unlike last night, there are a ton of good spots for pitching. There are however some sneak spots for hitting and we’ll also need to navigate Coors Field.
Always make sure to read Adam’s Starting Rotation when setting your lineup. It’s hands down the best pitching article in the MLB DFS business.
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!
While the end results haven’t been too bad for Tyler Gilbert over the last month, if we dig in a bit we can see that he’s been getting extremely lucky to not give up more damage than he has. Over the last month, Gilbert has pitched to a 2.51 ERA, yet he has a 5.79 xFIP over the same period. Anytime I see that big of a discrepancy between their ERA and xFIP, it raises a huge red flag. We can absolutely expect some negative regression from Gilbert and it’s going to come at the hands of the San Francisco Giants tonight.
Gilbert has been giving up the type of contact that we really want to target with our MLB DFS stacks. He’s giving up a ton of fly balls and he’s also giving up a healthy amount of hard contact. In just his last 14 innings of work, he’s given up 6 barrels. His low WHIP despite a huge amount of contact screams luck. With Gilbert, we want to target him with righties. Righties have a .512 slugging % vs. him this season and a .359 wOBA. Both are significantly higher than what lefties have.
Core: My core with the Giants will be Wilmer Flores, Darrin Ruf, and Thairo Estrada. All three guys have been crushing lefties over the last month. Flores has a .273 ISO and a .352 wOBA vs. them over his last 41 AB. Estrada has a massive .481 ISO and a .447 wOBA vs. them over the last month. And finally, Ruf has a .405 ISO and a .429 wOBA vs. them. These three are poised to have monster nights.
Secondary Pieces: I’ll also look to add Austin Slater here. While he’s not a priority with this stack, he’s close. He won’t get us much in the way of power, but he does get on base a ton vs. lefties as he has a .407 OBP vs. them. He’ll set the tone at the top of this lineup tonight and stacking him in front of guys like Flores and Ruf could pay dividends.
Value: The free square of the night will be Yermin Mercedes. The kid that couldn’t get along with Tony LaRussa has started to find a home with the Giants and is min priced on Dk tonight at just $2k. In his very brief career, Mercedes has done extremely well vs. southpaws with a .526 slugging % and a .382 wOBA. As long as he’s in there tonight, he’ll be in my lineups.
The Padres were embarrassed last night by the Detroit Tigers, losing 12-4. Tonight I think they return the favor. The Tigers will turn the ball over to Garrett Hill tonight. After a surprisingly solid debut vs. the Guardians, his last 2 outings have not been as strong. In his last 2 outings, Hill has given up 9 ER in 10 innings of work. Tonight’s matchup should more resemble what he did against the White Sox when he gave up 6 ER in 5 innings.
Through his 3 starts in the bigs, he’s pitched to a 5.63 ERA and a 5.29 xFIP. He hasn’t missed many bats as he has a slate low 5% swinging strike rate. His nearly 90% contact rate is also a slate high tonight. So far in his brief MLB career, splits have been pretty neutral for him. He’s giving up a 55% hard-hit rate to lefties and a 48% to righties.
Core: I’m going to build my Padres lineup around their big 2 hitters in Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth. Although he had a solid series vs. the Mets, Machado has not been hitting the ball overly well over the last month or so. This is a good get-right spot for him tonight vs. a pitcher that pitches to contact. With Cronenworth, he’s been solid vs. righties over the last month. Over his last 65 plate appearances, he has a .200 ISO vs. righties and a .345 wOBA. These 2 guys are in a good spot tonight and should do well.
Value: After my 2 core guys, I’m going to jump right to value here. Eric Hosmer, Nomar Mazara, and CJ Abrams are all under $3k tonight on DK and will provide us a ton of salary relief. After a mid-season slump saw his average take a nose-dive, Hosmer has really been hitting the ball well again. He’s riding a 4 game-hitting streak right now and has been their best and most consistent hitter over the last handful of games. At just $2.4k tonight on DK, he’s one of my favorite value plays of the night.
The Dodgers were as big of a disappointment last night as we’ve seen all year. In a solid matchup vs. a struggling pitcher in Paolo Espino and a bad bullpen, the Dodgers managed to score just 1 run on 8 hits. If we look at some of the advanced stats for last night, they just got unlucky as they had some of the longest hit balls and hardest hit balls. They get an equally good matchup tonight against Josiah Gray.
Gray has already faced this Dodgers lineup once this season at home and it was his worst start of the year. He allowed 7 ER in just 3 innings of work with 3 bombs. I’m expecting more of the same tonight. Gray has a clear weakness and that’s lefty hitters. Lefties have a massive .571 slugging % vs him this season compared to just .355 for righties. 13 of the 21 homers he’s allowed this season have been to lefties. He’ll face a lineup tonight that should have at a minimum 5 lefties. It’s going to be a struggle from the start for Gray tonight.
Core: My core tonight for the Dodgers will be Freddie Freeman. He failed us miserably last night and ended his 12-game hitting streak. A streak that saw him just overpower most pitchers. He’ll look to get back on the saddle tonight and start a new streak. Against righties over the last month, Freeman has a .364 ISO and a .511 wOBA. It’s a great bounce-back spot for him after disappointing last night.
Secondary Pieces: The other lefties I’ll be interested in here will be Max Muncy and Cody Bellinger. While Bellinger hasn’t done a whole lot over the last month or so, this is a good matchup for him. He’s a flyball hitter vs. a flyball pitcher. Over the last 2 weeks, Bellinger has just a .472 OPS, but he’s also been extremely unlucky with a .148 BABIP. He’s been putting good contact on the ball. It’s only a matter of time before he breaks through again, and that will happen tonight.
Value: Jake Lamb is one of the top value plays in this lineup tonight. At just $2.2k on DK tonight, he’ll give us some serious salary relief. He’s been extremely solid vs. righties over the last month with a .379 wOBA. If the lineup is similar to last night, he’ll be right in the middle of a lineup that Vegas expects to score a healthy amount of runs.
Both sides of the Coors game will be in play tonight, with a slight lean to the Rockies side vs. Kopech. Should Bobby Witt be back in the lineup for the Royals, I’d seriously consider them as a top stack vs. Jose Suarez. Other places we can look to for offense tonight will be the Mariners vs. Dane Dunning, and Brewers vs. Dylan Bundy. I like to use teams that disappointed a night earlier with my MLF DFS stacks as it suppresses ownership. The Brewers were a huge disappointment in a great matchup last night and get another solid matchup vs. Bundy.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
The teams playing tonight must have a case of the Mondays because the pitching options are really rough tonight. Not only is it not ideal, but that’s also going to force Sean Manaea into being chalk and those slates aren’t typically enjoyable. Let’s see if we can find some diamonds in the rough in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/25!
Let’s just talk about the only two that are in the salary range, because I don’t think I’m pitching either tonight. If I HAD to choose between Max Fried or Tony Gonsolin, I’m going to go with Fried. Don’t get me wrong, this is not a good matchup. Philly is ninth in wRC+, eighth in wOBA, sixth in ISO, and 10th in OPS, and they don’t strike more than 21.9%. That’s going to be tough to truly pay off the salary for Fried even though he has a 22.9% K rate, a 3.15 xFIP, a 49.7% ground ball rate, and only a 25.4% hard-hit rate. The obvious question is where does the ceiling come from here and while 20-22 DK might pass for pretty good on this slate but I’m not enthused to pay this salary for someone with this low of a K rate. It is baseball so maybe he stages eight strikeouts and I look dumb but this is tough to get behind since we’re playing the odds. I will likely fade him in GPP unless he’s very low-owned.
I’ve played Gonsolin a lot this year but he typically been around $1,000 cheaper, if not more. For as good as he was in the first half, his 2.02 ERA still does not mesh with his 3.72 xFIP and the K rate is strong at 24.2%. Gonsolin also generates a nice ground ball rate at 42.1% and just like Fried, the ceiling is hard to see for him. The Washington offense isn’t very good but they will not strike out in their current form at 19.8%. They are one of three teams that do not whiff more than 20% of the time and as long as Juan Soto and Josh Bell are on the squad, that’s not likely to change. Pitching is going to be difficult to navigate but I don’t want to have to try and force five-digit salaries on top of it for very imperfect matchups, at least for GPP.
I would be just stunned if he is not the chalk of the slate with the salaries involved and the matchup at hand. Detroit is in the bottom 10 of all of our offensive categories with the exception of OBP (12th) but they balance that out by ranking 29th in ISO. The K rate isn’t super high at 21.7% and they do have four hitters with a wOBA over .400 when facing the slider so this is not a slam dunk spot. Manaea is using his sinker almost 63% of the time this season and that pitch has a .303 wOBA allowed with 60 of his 100 strikeouts. That has translated to a K rate just under 24% and a 3.93 xFIP but the 40.9% fly-ball rate is the second-highest rate of his career. Righties also have a .324 wOBA against him even though the K rate comes up to almost 25% and the BABIP is over .300. One of the issues on the surface is he uses that sinker and changeup basically 86% of the time and it’s just tough to be using only two pitches. I really don’t love Manaea but I’m preparing to play him in cash for sure.
It may not be the fairest thing but Kelly and Miles Mikolas are pretty much the same guys to me. What I mean by that is they aren’t fancy, they don’t have the best stuff, but they are productive. The path to success is narrower because if they give up runs, they don’t have the strikeout ability to fix it. The Giants are up to 13th in K rate when facing a righty and they sit between 12th and 14th in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. The Giants are also coming off a sweep at the hands of the Dodgers and their season is slipping away, which is something to start paying attention to. It does have an effect on the players if management throws in the towel and Kelly does have a 43.4% ground ball rate. He also got the Giants for 19 DK in back-to-back starts right before the break and he’s at home which is a bonus. Kelly has a 3.48 ERA, a .289 wOBA, the K rate jumps to 22.4%, and the xFIP dives down to 3.78. Across the board, those numbers are better and Kelly is well in play.
Honorable Mention
Corey Kluber is also fine but I never find myself going after him all that much. Baltimore did get to him right before the break and he has a 3.91 xFIP to go along with his 21.3% K rate. The fly-ball rate is over 42% and that’s a concern, as is the fact he’s been a little bit worse on the road. They aren’t huge splits but it is across the board so I think he’s in that 13-17 DK range tonight.
Jake Odorizzi could also bring some traction at this salary and matchup, but just remember he isn’t a good pitcher this season. His xFIP of 4.54 is a run higher than his ERA with a K rate of just 18.3%. What is really fascinating is the HR/FB rate is only 4.8% compared to 10.4% of the career so baseballs are bound to leave the yard at some point. Maybe Oakland isn’t the best venue for that but something has to give soon.
I’m not sold on him (a theme of the slate overall) but there is a path for him. Oddly, Brubaker is noticeably better on the road with a 26.4% K rate, a 3.52 xFIP, a 48.4% ground ball rate, and a .305 wOBA. These are all the best marks for him this season and his slider has a 39.6% whiff rate with a .298 wOBA allowed. Brubaker is also better when facing a righty and Chicago should have plenty of them while they are 16th against the slider. Overall, he has a swinging-strike rate of 11.7% and the Cubbies are 13th in OPS, 22nd in ISO, 16th in wRC+, and the whiff over 23% of the time. This really isn’t the worst spot for him provided the weather is fine in Wrigley.
It’s going to be a recurring theme coming down the stretch that the Pirates lineup is a target since they’re in the bottom five in wOBA, wRC+, OBP, and OPS to go along with their 25.1% K rate. Thompson does only have a 22% K rate but that’s plenty for this salary and his groundball rate is just about 42%. Not only has he been slightly better against the left side of the plate, but his home metrics are also better with a 2.84 ERA, a .289 wOBA, a 3.80 xFIP, and the K rate jumps to 24.4%. It seems a little odd that the HR/9 is just 0.18 in Wrigley but it’s not like the xFIP is crazy high and makes me worry. He’s not throwing it much but his changeup looks like a weapon with a 32.1% whiff rate and a .126 wOBA allowed. I’m not entirely sure why it’s only 5.8% but he is using it mostly when facing a lefty so that does help his appeal. We just need the wind to cooperate.
Nick Pivetta – We’ve kind of been waiting for Pivetta to come back down to Earth and that happened recently with a 13.50 ERA in 13.1 IP this month. He’s been worse to lefties which could be an issue against Cleveland and the strikeouts aren’t likely to be there either. With a 5.12 FIP and 4.93 xFIP against the left side, I may be looking to some Guardians exposure more than Pivetta.
Jacob Junis – He’s back as a starter but I’m not sure what pitch count we’re looking at and as a starter, the K rate is under 20% with a 1.42 HR/9 and a 4.38 FIP. Lefties have long been his weaker side and the D-Backs should throw almost exclusively lefties against him.
Noah Syndergaard – It’s bad enough on this slate that I gave him a real look but there is just so little in the profile to like. The xFIP is 4.21, the K rate is under 19%, and he’s been significantly worse on the road. I suppose Kansas City is bad enough to get him to 15 or so DK but I’d have very little faith there.
Dodgers
Brewers/Rockies Game Stack Part II, Electric Boogaloo
Astros
Rays
Braves
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