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Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

Tonight we have a nice-sized 6-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through.  On the hill, we have one of the best in the game.  Thankfully, we also have some gas cans to attack. 

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Jacob Degrom vs. Colorado Rockies

Even if this game was in Colorado, I’d still be recommending Jacob Degrom.  Altitude means nothing when you can’t hit the ball.  Degrom tonight will be far and away the best pitcher on the slate.  He’s going to be the extreme chalk, but we’ll need to eat it.  Some of his metrics over the last month are just insane.  He has a 45% K rate, a 22.90 swinging strike rate, a 62% contact rate, and a .51 WHIP.  He’s coming into this one with some extra rest as well so he should have some extra juice in the arm.  It also helps that this Rockies offense is nowhere near as good away from Coors as it is in Coors.  Pitch Degrom tonight and don’t overthink it. 

Aaron Nola vs. Cincinnati Reds

Aaron Nola should be able to have his way tonight with the Reds.  Over the last 30 days, Nola has been pretty good.  He’s pitched to a 2.92 xFIP and has a 28.90% k rate.  That k rate ranks second of all the pitchers on the hill tonight over the last month.  Although he struggled in his last outing, that was against the Mets and not the Reds.  Prior to that outing, Nola had 3 straight games giving up no more than 1 ER in each.  The games he’s struggled this season have all been against good lineups.  This lineup he’ll face tonight is not good.  Nola should have a good night on the hill.

Jameson Taillon vs. Oakland Athletics

This is more of a testament to the Athletics and lack of pitching depth tonight than it is Jameson Taillon.  Taillon is also pretty inexpensive tonight at just $7.5k on DK.  I think that Taillon is an average at best pitcher, but he gets a great matchup against a bad Athletics team.  Over the last month, Taillon has pitched to a 4.25 ERA while having an xFIP of just 3.5.  He’s been a little unlucky and with a soft matchup, his luck should turn his way.  While I will more than likely go double aces tonight with Degrom and Nola, going with Taillon as your SP2 will help you load up on some of the biggest bats tonight.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Mets vs. Ryan Feltner

The New York Mets come into this one clinging to a 1.5-game lead over the Atlanta Braves.  They just had a stretch of 27 games in 26 days and had their first day off yesterday in nearly 4 weeks.  That means they’ll be coming into this one well rested.  With a matchup against a struggling Feltner, they’ll be one of my top MLB DFS stacks on the night.  Although Feltner pitched well in his last outing, it was against a struggling Giants lineup.  Prior to that, he had back-to-back games giving up 5 ER. 

This is the type of matchup for him tonight where he could give up another 5 ER outing.  Feltner gives up a ton of hard contact, 38% over the last month.  If he’s sloppy in the zone tonight, he’ll continue to give up hard contact against one of the best teams in the league vs. righty-pitching.  

Core: I’m going to build my core with the Mets tonight around Jeff McneilStarling Marte, and Pete Alonso.  2 of these guys are hot, and one is not.  Let’s start with Alonso.  Alonso has been as unlucky as you can get recently.  Over the last week, Alonso has just 5 hits.  His BABIP over that stretch is a minuscule .160.  At some point, those balls that he’s putting into play are going to fall, and it’s going to happen tonight. 

Now back to the 2 guys that are hot.  Both McNeil and Marte have been 2 of the Mets’ best hitters over the last week.  McNeil has 11 hits in his last 29 AB and Marte has 10 in the same amount of AB.  Marte is my favorite of the 3 tonight as I tend to use him more against righties.  Over the last month, Marte has a .217 ISO vs. righties and a .368 wOBA. 

Secondary Pieces: Not in my core, but definitely in my pool of players tonight for the Mets will be Brandon NimmoFrancisco LindorMark Canha, and Daniel Vogelbach.  Both Lindor and Vogelbach have crushed righties over the last month.  Lindor has a .448 wOBA vs. them and Vogelbach has a .411.  If you decide to fade Alonso tonight, and I can’t really argue against it, going with Vogelbach makes for a nice play.  He’ll save you some money and he’s been extremely productive for the Mets.     

Value:  Brett Baty will make a fine-value play tonight.  He’ll be making his Citi Field debut tonight and gets the platoon advantage.  Baty is also only $2.5k on DK and he’ll save us a ton of money.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Justin Dunn

Justin Dunn has now made 3 starts in the big leagues this year.  1 good one, 1 average one, and 1 bad one.  He’ll add to the bad one’s tonight vs. a solid Phillies lineup that put up a 7 spot last night.  Through his first 3 starts this season, Dunn has really struggled with his control.  Even though he held the Pirates to just one run in his last outing, he walked 4 batters in just 5 innings of work.  While that may work against a below-average Pirates lineup, putting that many hitters on with a free pass vs. a solid Phillies lineup is a recipe for disaster. 

When he’s not walking batters, he’s also giving up a ton of hard contact.  His hard-hit rate through his first 3 starts is 38%.  Only 3 pitchers on tonight’s slate have given up more hard contact over the last month.  We want to attack Dunn with righties.  Righties have a .577 wOBA vs. him this season and a massive slugging % of 1.000. 

Core: My Phillies core will start with J.T. Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins.  Both guys are coming into this one playing extremely and have done well against righties.  Realmuto homered last night and went 3 for 5.  Against righties over the last month, he has a .399 wOBA and a .277 ISO.  He’s a lock in all of my lineups tonight.  Next up will be Hoskins who also had a solid night last night.  He went 2 for 4 with 3 RBI.  Against righties over the last month, he has an ISO of .200 and should be in a position to build off his solid Wednesday night.     

Secondary:  Other bats that I like in this lineup tonight will be Kyle SchwarberAlec Bohm, Nick Castellanos, and Jean Segura. I’m still somewhat hands-off with Schwarber in MLB DFS due to his lack of productivity recently, but he didn’t strike out last night and that’s a step in the right direction for him.  Castle has finally been hitting the ball better and now has hit safely in 14 straight games.  His price is only $4.1k and definitely has some upside in this matchup. 

New York Yankees vs. James Kaprielian

The Yankees somewhat woke up vs. the New York Mets this week, taking both games of the series.  They’ll get a great matchup tonight vs. a pitcher that just continues to luck out.  He’s pitched to an ERA of 3.04 over the last month while having an xFIP 2 runs higher. You can only give up the amount of contact that he gives up and the number of flyballs that he gives up before you blow up. 

Kap has also been worse at home this season than on the road.  His home ERA stands at 4.57, while on the road it’s 4.08.  We’ll want to target righties here.  Righties have a .480 slugging % vs. Kap this season, compared to just a .397 for lefties. 

Core: I’m going to build my MLB DFS Stack around Aaron Judge here.  While the Coliseum in Oakland isn’t known for homers, there’s no stadium in the world that can contain Judge.  Over the last month, he’s crushed righties, with a .355 ISO and a .452 wOBA. If you’re stacking the Yankees tonight, start with Judge and then just add around him with pieces.   

Secondary Pieces:  Other pieces I’ll look to add here will be D.J. LeMahieuJosh DonaldsonAnthony Rizzo, and Andrew Benintendi.  I know my preference is righties here, but Rizzo and Benintendi have been 2 of the better hitters in the Yankees lineup of late, especially against righties.  With LeMahieu and Donaldson, they’re both cold and Kap gives up a ton of contact and this is the type of matchup that can help them break out of their funks. 

MLB DFS Summary

Other stacks I like tonight are going to be the Blue Jays vs. Kutter Crawford, the Astros vs. Chris Archer, and the White Sox vs. Jordan Lyles.

Make sure to check out our new Home Run Model, it’s been running white hot!

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Welcome to the Wednesday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

Today we have a nice-sized 8-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through.  We have some solid pitchers on the hill and we also have some solid places to attack. 

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Shane McClanahan vs. Los Angeles Angels

Shane McClanahan is arguably the most talented pitcher on the slate, making him the top MLB DFS pitcher on the slate.  While his season-long K rate of 32% has plummeted to just 20% over the last month, some of that can be attributed to odd matchups.  He had a stretch of 3 games where he K’d a combined 11 hitters.  In his last start against the Royals, the McClanahan we’ve come to rely on re-appeared as he K’d 8.  With a matchup against a bad Angels team (even with Trout, they are bad), we should see more of a return of the old McClanahan.  On the year, the Angels have K’d more than 24% of the time vs. lefties and have a wRC of just 81.  They also hit for limited power vs. lefties with just a .639 OPS.  This is a solid matchup tonight McClanahan

Andrew Heaney vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Another pitcher getting a solid matchup tonight is Andrew Heaney.  Yes, the Brewers are a solid team.  They are a top offense in the league, against righties.  However, against lefties, they just are not very good.  On the year, they have just an 85 wRC, a .649 OPS, and a 25.8% k rate vs. lefties.  If we dial that back a little bit more to get us some recency bias, over the last month the Brewers projected lineup tonight has a 31% k rate vs. lefties.  It also helps that Heaney is coming into this matchup pitching really well. 

Over the last month, Heaney’s pitched to a 2.66 ERA and a slate-leading 32.6% k rate.  He faced this team a week ago and whiffed 10 Brewers.  While I don’t expect the same result, I do expect him to dominate them again tonight.  At $9.8K tonight on DK, he’s fairly priced given the matchup and how well he’s pitched.

Zac Gallen vs. Kansas City Royals

With Vinny Pasquantino being sent to the IL with an injury, this poor Royals lineup got even worse.  That will be a huge plus tonight for a pitcher in Zac Gallen who has been pitching some of the best baseball of his career over the last few weeks.  Gallen is coming into this one having gone at least 7 innings in 3 consecutive games and also without

t allowing a run in all 3.  He’s also K’d 26 batters over those 3 games, including a 10 k performance against the Giants.  He’s in peak form facing off against a bad Royals lineup.  The projected lineup tonight for the Royals will resemble a solid AAAA team, not a Major League team.  They have a .110 ISO against righties over the last month and a 25.6% k rate.  Anything can happen, but I like the chances of Gallen continuing with his solid pitching tonight. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Luke Farrell

The Cubs are expected to call up Luke Farrell to make his 2022 debut tonight.  If it goes anything like his season in the Minors, the Cardinals should be the top MLB DFS stack at the end of the night.  Farrell has pitched to a 5.03 ERA in the minors this season with a 1.46 WHIP.  He has just 49 k’s in 59 innings of work.  The matchup for him tonight will be as bad as it can get. 

The Cardinals are rolling right now, having won 9 of their last 10 games.  Their offense is absolutely rolling also, having scored in double digits 4 times over the last couple of weeks and will make for a solid MLB DFS stack.  This is the type of matchup where they can do it again.  I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits here as Farrell has been pretty splits neutral throughout his brief career.  Both sides of the plate have a wOBA over .330 and slugging %’s over .430. 

Core: When it comes to the Cardinals, you know the drill, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.  They are 2 of the best hitters in the game and get a soft matchup tonight vs. Farrell.  Both guys are coming into this game rolling as well, each with at least 12 hits over the last week.  Both guys also have an OPS Over 1 and stand a solid chance here tonight to produce.  The only concern with the 2 of them is that they are both extremely expensive tonight.  They’ll combine to cost over $12k tonight. 

Secondary Pieces: The Cardinals that I’ll look to sprinkle in tonight will be Brendan DonovanNolan Gorman, and Paul DeJong.  All three guys have been playing extremely well and have also been hitting righties well.  While Donovan hasn’t hit for much power vs. righties, he does have a wOBA of over .450.  He continues to produce when in the lineup and will only cost us $3.2k tonight on DK.  Another piece I really like here is Gorman.  Gorman’s going to hit for a bit more power than Donovan as he has a .276 ISO vs. righties over the last month.  He also has a .379 wOBA vs. them.  He’s in a solid spot to produce tonight.   

Value:  I didn’t list Lars Nootbaar as a core for me tonight, but that was 100% due to his price and wanting to highlight his value.  He’ll absolutely be in my stack tonight as he’s just $2.6k on DK.  Nootbaar has been playing some amazing baseball right now and is a cheap leadoff hitter for us.  Against righties over the last month, he has a massive .485 wOBA and a .333 ISO. 

Philadelphia Phillies vs. T.J. Zeuch

With Graham Ashcraft being sent to the IL, the Reds will turn the ball over to T.J. Zeuch tonight.  Through 2 starts this season, Zeuch has been horrendous.  In each start this season, he’s given up 6 ER.  One of those starts was to this same Phillies team last week.  Even if we look at what he did last season with the Blue Jays, it was not different as he had a 6.60 ERA in 5 appearances. 

He’s struggled in the majors and he’ll struggle against tonight.  With Zeuch, we don’t need to worry so much about splits.  He’s been an equal opportunist throughout his career.  Both sides of the plate have slugging %’s over .500 vs him. Lefties have been slightly better vs. him as they have a .408 wOBA. 

Core: My Phillies core will start with J.T. Realmuto and Nick Castellanos.  Both guys are playing some extremely solid baseball right now.  Realmuto has 9 hits in his last 23 AB and while he hasn’t homered at all during that stretch, he does have an OPS of 1.049.  He’s been putting the ball in play a ton and also has a nearly 53% hard-hit rate over the last week.  Realmuto’s been seeing the ball as well as he has all year. 

Similar things could be said about Castellanos.  One of the big free agent signings for the Phillies has finally been coming around.  Over the last week, he has 10 hits in 29 AB.  As his production has crept up, so has his salary as it’s up to $4.4k.  It’s still reasonable considering the matchup and how he’s been hitting.   

Secondary:  Other bats that have my attention in this lineup are going to be Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott.  Bohm has been red hot at the plate, with hits in 9 of his last 10 games.  Over his last 12 AB, he has 7 hits.  I normally prefer him vs. lefties, but this is also a solid spot for him tonight vs. Zeuch.  I’ll also look to get Jean Segura in here.  I’m willing to fade Kyle Schwarber in this matchup.  He’s back to his old ways of striking out a ton.  He’s $6k on DK tonight.  Can he return to form and smash tonight?  Absolutely, it’s just a lot of money to pay for someone that has 7 k’s in his last 8 AB. 

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Brayan Bello

The Red Sox will be trotting out Brayan Bello tonight, and there’s a minor chance that Rich Hill goes in after him.  That’s music to our ears as both have struggled in the Majors this season.  In Bello’s 3 Major League starts this season, he really struggled. He gave up 14 ER in just 12 innings of work. Part of his issues was his command, as he walked 8 batters in those 12 innings of work. 

With Blue Jays hitting the ball well again, if they can find some patience at the plate tonight against a pitcher that has control issues, they can put up just as large of a number as they did last night.  Similar to the other pitchers we’re targeting tonight, Bello has struggled vs. both sides of the plate.  Righties and lefties each have a slugging % over .550 vs. Bellow and both sides have wOBA’s over .440.

Core: I’m starting my Blue Jays stack with George SpringerVladimir Guerrero, and Matt Chapman.  These guys have been the best of the Blue Jays hitters over the last month vs. righties.  Both Springer and Guerrero have wOBA’s over .400 and Chapman is at .359.  Chapman comes in the cheapest of the 3 and has been arguably the best with a .316 ISO vs. righties over the last 30 days.  All 3 guys will be automatics in my Blue Jay stack, as pricey as they may be. 

Secondary Pieces:  After my core, I’ll look to get in guys like Lourdes GurrielTeoscar Hernandez, and Bo Bichette.  Bichette is my favorite of the 3 as his bat is starting to heat up.  He now has back-to-back games with 2 hits.  With a matchup vs. Bellow tonight, I like his chances of making it 3 in a row.

Value: For value with this stack, I’ll look to Cavan Biggio and Jackie Bradley.  They aren’t game changes in any sense of the word, but both guys are in a lineup that should smash tonight and are min-priced on DK.  They’ll free up a ton of money and with the way the lineup could potentially shake out, you could go with an 8,9,1,2 wrap-around stack with an average cost of $3.75k.  That gets you, Springer and Guerrero, without breaking the bank.  

MLB DFS Summary

Other stacks I like tonight are going to be the Dodgers vs. Adrian Houser, Boston Red Sox vs. Jose Berrios, and Houston Astros vs. Dylan Bundy.

Make sure to check out our new Home Run Model, it’s been running white hot!

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/23

It is one of the few times this year we have all 30 teams in action in the same window and the slates just don’t get any bigger than this. There are nine pitchers that are in the Ace tier as far as salary goes, but not all nine are in play for me. In honesty, this feels like a pretty slim slate when we compare how many options we have against how many options we want to play. Let’s get into this massive slate and start figuring things out in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/23 so we can find green screens! 

Aces 

Max Fried 

This might be a surprising place to start but at salary, I believe Fried is about the best Ace option. The Pittsburgh offense has been terrible all season long and against lefties, they are struggling quite badly with a K rate over 26% and they rank 25th or lower in OPS, OBP, wOBA, and wRC+. That doesn’t even mention that Fried has a 3.07 xFIP, a 0.43 HR/9, and a K rate just under 23%. The HR/9 is important because the Pirates do rank 15th in ISO so Fried is very good at controlling the power aspect of the game and his 51.1% ground ball rate certainly helps. Both sides of the plat don’t cross a .260 wOBA, the left side has a K rate of just about 26%, and the home/road splits are pretty equal across the board with a lean toward Fried pitching even better on the road. He’s extremely affordable here. 

Robbie Ray 

He’s at home, which is a nice step for him right off the hop. When he’s in Seattle, Ray has a 2.81 ERA, a .269 wOBA, a 29.3% K rate, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 3.12 xFIP. This is the best version of Ray and we’ve seen the Nationals turn into a slightly different team in the time since they traded Soto and Bell. Since that day, Washington has a K rate of over 25.5% and they have the ninth-most PA during that span, which makes that interesting. His slider and four-seam have combined for 146 strikeouts while the whiff rate is 41.7% for the slider. The Nationals are 28th against that pitch this year, which is super exciting for Ray’s upside. Righties have a K rate of 26.6% and if Ray gets any lefties, that’s even better with a 36.8% K rate so you could have two pitchers who combine for over 50 DK points for under $20,000. 

Carlos Rodon 

We got Good Rodon in the last start with over 30 DK points but now he has to roll into Detroit and they are a better offense when they face a lefty and Rodon has been worse on the road. Now, when I say that Detroit has been better against lefties, that doesn’t mean good. They are 18th in wC+, 21st in wOBA, 27th in ISO, 20th in OPS, and 21st in OBP with a K rate of just 22.2%. On the season, the K rate is 31.7% and the xFIP is just 3.06 to go along with his 13.9% swinging-strike rate, nothing to sneer at whatsoever. What is kind of weird to see is that the road ERA is 3.72 but the wOBA is dead even at .259 even though the K rate is “only” 28.4% and the xFIP comes up to 3.39. He’s not bad enough on the road to be supremely concerned against a suspect offense and the Tigers are 29th or 30th against the fastball and slider. Those are the two main pitches for Rodon so he is still an excellent option overall and the only thing that holds him back is the salary. 

Tony Gonsolin 

Since the Brewers and Dodgers have played each other in such close proximity, Gonsolin does have some amount of risk and we’ve mentioned this all the time but the 2.12 ERA doesn’t match the 3.72 xFIP and his 15-1 record is pretty absurd as well. Still, he does have a K rate of 24% and a swinging-strike rate of 12.1%, and the splitter has 56 strikeouts for him with a whiff rate of 30.8% and every pitch outside of the four-seam has a wOBA under .190 this season. The Brewers are a good offense against righties as they are in the top 10 in our categories, but Gonsolin has been nasty this year and he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning during the last game. 

Honorable Mention 

Corbin Burnes almost made it through the last start but ran out of gas just a bit and finished with 18 points because he got the win. Burnes is fantastic with a 32% K rate, a 2.91 xFIP, and a 44.4% ground ball rate but he does have to face the Dodgers twice in a row and they are statistically the best offense against righties the season. 

Another pitcher that easily could score the most points on the slate and it wouldn’t surprise me, Justin Verlander could dominate. I’ve been more or less under the field this year and that has bitten me at some points, but his 3.47 xFIP compared to the 1.95 could come back to get him in any given start. The K rate is also just 25%, which is lower on paper than a lot in this tier. That hasn’t always mattered but I believe that the other four are in a better spot overall and everyone but Rodon is cheaper. 

Mid-Range 

Note – Pablo Lopez was talked about in the Monday version so all of his analysis is already there. He was just pushed back a day. 

Corey Kluber

It might seem odd on such a big slate but there is only one pitcher other than Lopez that I want in the mid-range tonight. I mean, look at who’s pitching and who they’re facing. You have Mike Clevinger against Cleveland and he’s worse against lefties, while the Guardians don’t strike out. Nick Lodolo pulls a tough spot against the Phillies in Philly, Taijaun Walker has the Yankees, and Frankie Montas has the Mets (and has not responded yet to being a Yankee). 

Kluber is not especially appealing from the profile but his 3.78 xFIP is lower than his 4.33 ERA, which is nice. The K rate is 21.7% but the Angels should help out since they whiff at the highest rate in baseball against righties at 26.9%. He does have a wOBA over .300 against both sides of the plate but we’ve seen Kluber flash for some big scores, you just have to catch him on the right night. He doesn’t have any real splits to be concerned with and his curve has been the best strikeout pitch with 46 on the season. The Angels are 16th against that pitch and he’s under $8,000, which is a far more comfortable salary range for him. 

Punt Range 

Ross Stripling 

Through 89 innings, Stripling has been pretty solid this year, especially with how cheap he is. We’ve been talking about how the Red Sox lineup has been pretty poor lately and in the past 30 days, they are 20th in wRC+, wOBA, 18th in ISO, 19th in OPS, and 21st in OBP. The K rate isn’t special at 21.7% but we’re only paying $7,400 for Stripling. His xFIP is 3.54 compared to a 2.93 ERA and the K rate is fine at 20.9% to go along with a 48.1% ground ball rate. Both sides of the plate are under a .285 wOBA and the K rates are similar as well. His changeup is only allowing a .234 wOBA and the whiff rate is 32.6% but Boston is sixth against the pitch, a small concern. He can be difficult to get right so I wouldn’t go crazy, but this isn’t a terrible spot here. 

Jose Suarez 

I kind of like him since the Rays offense is anemic for the most part, although the seasonal data has the Rays at 13th in wRC+. That seems like bad news but they are also 24th in ISO, 19th in wOBA, 18th in OPS, and 19th in OBP. The K rate isn’t anything major at 21.3% but Suarez has some ability at 22.6% himself. There is a reason he’s cheap with an ERA of 4.12 and an xFIP at 4.18 and he does have a swinging-strike rate of 12%. What really could push Suarez over the top is the Rays are 24th against the fastball and that has been the weak spot for Suarez with a wOBA of .419 allowed this season. His change/curve/slider are all under a .290 wOBA and the change has 34 strikeouts with a 33.7% whiff rate. It happens that Tampa is 24th against that pitch as well so things line up for Suarez pretty well. 

Honorable Mention 

German Marquez has generally been very poor this year but his 5.05 ERA is pretty absurd with a 3.99 xFIP. The lefties certainly worry me in the Rangers lineup but the Texas lineup is also horrible against righty pitching and they will be in Coors for the first game. Those ones flop a lot and you know the Rangers will be chalky, so you could snag some leverage here. 

Missed the Cut 

Dylan Cease – On a slate this size, you have to take some stands and to me, the lack of strikeouts for Cease lately is enough to not really play him. I’m not saying you can’t, but the K rate has been under 28% since the start of July. I’m not looking to pay into the five digits for salary for that given some of the other spots. 

Stacks 

Astros 

Braves 

Blue Jays 

Phillies 

Coors (it will be chalky) 

Giants 

D-Backs 

Mariners 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/23 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/21

We only have eight games waiting for us on the main slate and one pitcher that is going to carry the majority of ownership. Given the matchup, it’s going to be tough to fight back against and it’s going to be vital to figure out who we want to pair with him. Let’s talk about the chalk of the slate and the other candidates in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/21!

Aces

Shohei Ohtani 

I would be stunned if he’s not the highest-owned pitcher and how can I say anything different? He’s thrown 117 innings and has a 2.42 xFIP, a 2.49 FIP, a massive 35% K rate, a WHIP of just 1.06, and a swinging-strike rate of 15.8%. The slider has taken over as his main pitch and has a 42.8% whiff rate with 57 strikeouts and Detroit is 29th against the slider and dead last against the fastball. Dead last is a familiar spot for them because that’s the spot they occupy in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, ISO, and OBP to go along with a 25.2% K rate. Last year, I would have at least noted that lefties are an issue for Ohtani and the .305 wOBA is the higher mark, but he also has a 33% K rate against them and the BABIP is .344. This is a matchup that I don’t really want to overthink and I’ll be playing Ohtani in the majority of my lineups. 

Brandon Woodruff 

The surface metrics certainly support Woodruff being this salary as he has a 3.42 xFIP, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 29.2% K rate. His fly-ball rate is getting him into trouble at times since it has gone from 32.3% last year to 45.6% this season and that’s a pretty large jump. The average launch angle on his fastball (38.7% of his arsenal) went from 19 degrees in 2021 to 29 degrees this season and that’s the wrong direction. Perhaps the largest red flags for Woodruff lie in his splits since he is worse on the road and a lot of that damage has come against the right side of the plate. When he’s not in Milwaukee, the xFIP jumps over 4.00, the K rate drops to 26%, the WHIP goes up to 1.45, and the ERA is 4.47. These are pretty drastically different than his home stats and you have to deal with the fact that the Cubs could play seven righties. They’re also in the top 12 in wOBA, OPS, and OBP although at least the K rate is over 23%. The road to outscore Ohtani could be very narrow, especially if the wind in Wrigley is a factor. 

Honorable Mention 

I’m still petrified of being on the wrong end of the Yankee explosion that will happen sooner or later, but Alek Manoah is equipped to deal with a righty-heavy version of this lineup. He may not see more than three and even if it happens to be four, they are so cold right now it may not matter. The hitters that scare you are on the right side and Manoah has a .218 wOBA, 28.9% K rate, and a 0.71 WHIP against that side of the plate. I’d like to see the lineup before making the final call but he is a strong candidate to put up a big score if this free fall continues for New York. 

Everyone Else 

One of the reasons to be so heavy on Ohtani is the rest of this slate is a little ugly. Sure, Charlie Morton has gobs of upside as he just went for 40 against the Mets. Playing him is like playing Russian Roulette though because it’s near impossible to see which game he’s going to dominate in. When that curve is going well, it’s hard to even get contact on the ball and across 19.1 innings in August, the K rate is 37%. Like Strider last night, he is better against the right side with a .276 wOBA, a 29.6% K rate, a 0.96 HR/9, and a 2.94 xFIP. If Yordan Alvarez misses again, this spot does get a lot better overall even with Houston ranking sixth against the curveball. It also doesn’t hurt that Morton is superior at home with a 32.1% K rate, a 3.17 xFIP, and a 3.07 ERA. 

I wish I knew what to do with Joe Ryan. On the one hand, the Rangers have been putrid when they face a righty pitcher and we’ve felt the burn multiple times. They are 22nd in wRC+, 27th in wOBA, 22nd in ISO, and 26th in OPS, and they are also 26th in OBP to go with a K rate over 23%. That all sounds great if you’re looking into pitching Ryan but then his splits have to be weighed because he’s in line for 5-6 lefty hitters and they have generated a 17% K rate, a 4.96 FIP, and a 5.56 xFIP. Ryan has actually been quite lucky because lefties have a .236 BABIP (very low) and he’s holding a strand rate of 90.4% (far too high). The other two stronger aspects of this play are the Rangers are 19th against fastballs and Ryan throws that as his main pitch when he sees a lefty and he is very inexpensive. 

Our guy Justin Steele is another very inexpensive option and I’m always willing to attack the Brewers with lefties that can strike out hitters. We have to look no further than earlier this week when Andrew Heaney got them for double-digit strikeouts and scored over 20 DK points. Steele is up to 23.6% for his K rate with a 3.55 xFIP, his ground ball rate is 51%, and his hard-hit rate is 24.5%. Milwaukee is up to third in K rate at 25.3% and in the bottom 10 of our categories. I think the largest fear I have with this spot is the Brew Crew is fourth against the slider and if Steele doesn’t have that pitch, he’s going to struggle. t has a 32.5% whiff rate, a .170 wOBA, and 67 strikeouts and all of those easily lead his arsenal. I don’t expect a spotless start by any means but I think the strikeouts can carry him to a very solid point per dollar day. 

I don’t always love using pitchers off long injuries (and that certainly bit me last night with Dustin May, who went nuts) but Eduardo Rodriguez is super affordable and the Angels have been awful against lefties, regardless of the status of Mike Trout. E-Rod has worked up to six innings in his rehab process and nothing jumps off the page with a 4.50 xFIP and a K rate of just 20.1%. Having said that, LA is 25th or lower in every one of our categories and the K rate is over 24%. While Trout is amazing, he doesn’t solve all of those issues. I would likely reserve E-Rod for 20 max, but he is another reasonable shot to take at the salary. 

Missed The Cut 

Nestor Cortes – It’s tough to get on board here with the salary involved. Not only is Toronto in the top 12 in all of our categories, but they also have an 18.5% K rate. That’s the second-lowest in baseball and Cortes has been under a 25% K rate after April of the season. 

Stacks 

Twins 

Mets 

Braves 

Reds 

Royals

Pirates (mainly just Michael Chavis and Reynolds)

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/21 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/19

We have a large 14-game slate tonight and I’ll be covering the stacks as well today, so we have a lot to get to. There is a pitcher that was pushed from yesterday into tonight’s slate, so some work is already done. There are also some solid pitchers in just terrible matchups for them so let’s get into the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/19!

Aces

Shane McClanahan 

This was from yesterday, and I think the only real shift is he’s not pitching on the same day as deGrom so McClanahan is more appealing tonight with a lack of other options as trustworthy as deGrom. The salary has come up a bit but is far more than fair if Shane O’Mac does what he’s done all year. 

He’s been a little underwhelming in the two starts in August with just seven total strikeouts across 12.1 IP, but there was nothing before those two starts to suggest that anything was going wrong with him. With that said, the salary is super appealing even though the Royals only have a 19% K rate against lefties on the season since Shane O’Mac has been so good this season. Righties only have a .229 wOBA against him this year with a 32.7% K rate and a 2.30 xFIP while his swinging-strike rate is still 16.6%. For once, I don’t think he’s an absolute must-have because we do have at least one other option at around the same salary. 

Blake Snell 

Snellzilla has been on the loose in the second half of the season through 28.2 IP with a 0.94 ERA, a .223 wOBA, a 35.5% K rate, and the walk rate has plummeted to 4.5% with a 1.37 FIP and 2.20 xFIP. He’s been incredible and yet, the salary remains at just $9,300 and he’s going to be very popular. While Snell is scary as chalk, he just diced up this Washington lineup for 35.7 DK points and his strikeouts have not been an issue this season at any point. His K rate has climbed over 31% and the swinging-strike stuff is at 14.5%, one of the better marks in his career. The slider/curve/change combo is all over a 42.5% whiff rate and Snell should continue to smash in this spot at home. He’s just not expensive enough yet with at least 22 DK in seven of his last eight and the one that didn’t come in Colorado. 

Honorable Mention 

If you want to roll Aaron Nola, I can’t tell you no. After all, he just scored over 30 DK points against this offense and even though seeing the same team twice in a row (that goes for Snell too), Nola has been excellent. It’s a tough matchup since the Mets are still at a K rate of just 19.8% so that is one of the knocks on Nola. Still, he has a 2.97 xFIP, a 27.9% K rate, and a hard-hit rate under 25% so there is obviously a clear path to success. I just like the other pitchers better, but that doesn’t mean Nola can’t score 25+ again. 

Mid-Range 

Triston McKenzie 

I’ve been selective with him all year but we all know that attacking the White Sox with righty pitching has been more successful than not this season. His ERA and xFIP are getting closer to matching up at 3.14 and 4.07 each and he still does have a K rate approaching 24%. McKenzie has held the WHIP to under 1.00 to this point and the largest negative continues to be the fly-ball rate at 49.4%. The good news for him is the White Sox are just 23rd in fly-ball rate against righty pitching this season and they are 29th in ISO, not the best combo to exploit a big fly-ball rate. He has dropped his fastball usage a little bit over the past three games and he’s recorded 18 strikeouts even though two of the teams he’s faced have been the Astros and Jays. Outside of the fly-ball rate, the largest concern is McKenzie is worse against the rah side with a wOBA of .301, a K rate of 20.3%, and a 4.33 xFIP but the White Sox just have not hit righties well. 

Brady Singer 

If he continues the tear that he’s on, Singer might be one of the better plays on the entire slate. Since July started, he has been lights out with an ERA under 2.30, a wOBA of about .275, and a K rate hovering around 28%. It doesn’t appear that there has been a magic key as far as the pitch mix but maybe he didn’t need one with a slider that sports a 37.8% whiff rate and a .287 wOBA allowed. He doesn’t have any significant splits that we need to be too worried about and the Rays have the fifth-highest K rate against righties this season. Additionally, they are 25th when they face a slider this year and Singer appears to be figuring things out as a major league pitcher. 

Tyler Anderson 

He may have his warts but the marlins have the highest K rate against lefties at 28.4% and over the past 30 days, it’s climbed to over 30%. Right off the hop, that is interesting despite Anderson having a 4.01 xFIP compared to a 2.81 ERA and the K rate is only 19.9% for him on the season. He’s another one that we don’t love the fly-ball rate of 41.9% but it’s hard to get that worked up over it in this matchup. Miami strikes out more than anyone, but they are also 30th in OBP, OPS, wRC+, and wOBA. It is the textbook definition of a cupcake matchup for Anderson and his changeup has a 38.4% whiff rate and 48 strikeouts this season. The Marlins are below average there as well since they rank 18th and this salary is hard to ignore.

Honorable Mention 

I’m not sure if there’s a larger wildcard on the slate than Kevin Gausman. Outside of a grand slam by Josh Donaldson, the Yankees have been in an abject tailspin and Gausman does have a K rate of 30.1% against the right side of the plate with a 2.07 FIP and 2.63 xFIP. Despite all of his excellent metrics, Gausman has been near impossible to pick right over the past two months so the range of outcomes here is very wide. 

Punt Range 

Patrick Sandoval 

You always have to be judicious when choosing Sandoval, but this is a solid spot. Granted, the Tigers are better when they face a lefty but they are below league average in all of our categories and they fall all the way to 27th in ISO. The K rate is just 22.2% but Sandoval is almost at 24% and his xFIP is under 4.00 with a swinging-strike rate of 12.3%. His slider and change are his two main pitches and they both have a wOBA under .265 and a whiff rate of at least 33.7%. It is really the fastball that gives him so much grief at a .479 wOBA but Detroit ranks dead last against that pitch this year, a major bonus for Sandoval. The splits are reasonable even with a .338 wOBA against righties, the BABIP is .362 so Sandoval has some better days ahead. 

Miles Mikolas 

We talked about him in the last start that he had to bounce back after a historically horrific start and he did in a major way with 27.6 DK points. I may not expect him to do the same thing but at $7,300, you don’t need him to. He gets an Arizona squad that can be pesky but Mikolas just gets outs with a 19% K rate and a 3.44 EA to go along with a 3.76 xFIP. In a reverse of his career numbers, Mikolas has been better when he sees a lefty this year with a .263 wOBA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 0.87 HR/9. He has been slightly worse on the road and that is of a small concern, but the salary is so appealing that the best-case scenario isn’t required. After all, the D-Backs are under league average in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and OBP against righties this season. 

Jordan Lyles 

So we talked yesterday about the Red Sox being a putrid offense in the past 30 days, and then JT Brubaker went out and hung 30 DK points on them. Lyles has been usable at times (most of them have come in Baltimore, which happens to be where the game is tonight) and the salary certainly works. When Lyles has pitched in Baltimore this year, Camden has helped him rack up a 2.73 ERA, a .313 wOBA, a 0.46 HR/9, and a 3.55 FIP. Now, the xFIP is higher than on the road at 4.93 but the walls moving at Camden has completely changed the complexion of that park. Lyles does the K rate fall to under 16% but Boston is going to help that and I do like him, even though I may receive him for 20-max tonight. 

Missed The Cut 

Chris Bassitt – Maybe I could get talked into this if Kyle Schwarber misses the game, but generally Bassitt on the road has not worked out this year. His HR/9 is 1.41, the K rate is 21.9%, the FIP is 4.41, and the ERA is 4.24. 

Lance McCullers – I wanted to go after him, but some concerns are coming out of the first start. For one, the walks were obviously high but I can overlook that in the first start of the season. His xFIP was climbing toward 5.00 in that start and throughout his career, McCullers has a lower K rate against righties (24.3%), a higher wOBA (.308), and a 4.48 ERA on the road. It might be too much to ask of McCullers to go after Atlanta. 

Lance Lynn – While I am hopeful he’s got some things getting right in the past few starts, going against the Guardians doesn’t profile as the best spot for him. Cleveland has the best K rate against righties at 17.5% (2.3% lower than anyone else) and they should have a bunch of lefties in the lineup. That side has a .340 wOBA and just a 19.7% K rate although he does have the xFIP down to 3.89. On paper, it just makes more sense for Anderson. 

Stacks 

Cardinals 

I hope they didn’t wear themselves out yesterday because they have another glorious spot today against lefty Tommy Henry tonight. He has a 1.26 HR/9 and a 5.69 xFIP against the right side and the Cards are one of the best teams in baseball when they draw a lefty. They rank first in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, and OBP this season and only whiff 19.2% of the time against southpaw pitching, a test for anyone (let alone a player that has just 17.1 IP under his belt). It’s going to be fairly easy to afford hitters tonight if we use some of the next offense and that puts Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado squarely in our sights. They both have ISO’s over .400 when facing a lefty this season and Nado has a 9% K rate, and that’s not a typo. 

Henry is using his fastball around 55.3% of the time so far and although it has only allowed a .033 ISO so far, we need to have his xFIP in mind. Goldy, Nado, Albert Pujols, and Dylan Carlson are the best fastball hitters on the team, and then we can add in Paul DeJong with a .371 wOBA and the low-water mark for ISO among this group is .185. We get nine innings of the Cards on the road, and I am very interested as they face off against an inexperienced lefty. 

Giants 

Well, let’s get the chalk out of the way. I would honestly be surprised if the Giants are not 1-9 in ownership on DK tonight because they simply have no idea how to set salaries. We have gone on and on about this all year, but the first game in Coors tends to be a flop. However, every single San Fran hitter is $4,000 or less and the value they provide is flatly absurd. We’re going to need plenty in cash, and it’s likely easy to use them for a punt or two even if you target other offenses in GPP. Part of the issue with fading them is they face Jose Urena, who routinely gets mashed by lefties with a WHIP over 2.00 and a wOBA over .380. 

Even if you fade most of them, LaMonte Wade should be in line to lead off and has a .323 ISO against righties this year, and not far behind is Joc Pederson at .249. Brandon Belt and Mike Yastrzemski join the fray at over .320 for the wOBA and even though Brandon Crawford and Tommy LaStella are under .300, watch for them to be very popular too. As always, we have pinch-hit risk if the Rockies bring in a lefty but here’s the good news – they only have two on their current roster and Austin Gomber was forced to throw 60 pitches in relief yesterday. We should be relatively safe here and they are a strong stack as far as value goes, even if we don’t have to have five-man stacks in GPP. 

Angels 

They haven’t been in this section for me in a long while, but we have the return of Mike Trout and the team gets to face Matt Manning, a righty for the Tigers. Across 110.1 IP in his career, both sides of the plate are pretty equal with a wOBA of right about .330 and the xFIP is over 4.90 for both sides with a K rate under 16.5%. With the value presented by the Giants lineup, we can swing both Shohei Ohtani and Trout together, which is the most appealing way to stack the Angels. Those two are over a .390 wOBA and they have an ISO of at least .295, and their credentials speak for themselves. On the secondary level, Taylor Ward has cooled off in a major way but is still over a .200 ISO and a .355 wOBA while David Fletcher and Max Stassi are solid value plays as well with wOBA’s over .300. The Angels have not been a good offense this year but Trout is obviously a game-changer and manning has shown little ability to succeed in the majors. 

Honorable Mention 

Reds (LHH preferred, Jake Fraley is a total bargain)

Padres 

Twins 

Pirates 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/19 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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