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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Mar. 31)

Jared Contestabile
written by Jared Contestabile

Very few things in sports compare to Opening Day for MLB. I was down in Cincinnati for the festivities yesterday, and the atmosphere was electric. Being back in a stadium for the first time since last year was just the icing on the cake. The Reds let the fans down, but that’s what they do.

I’m pumped to be putting a few of these articles out each week to help you all make a bag or two this season. After every team playing on Opening Day, we have just a five-game slate for Friday evening. The first game of the eveing starts at 6:40, so we have a bit of an earlier start to lineup lock.

Let’s dig in and head into the weekend with some big wins!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Dustin May vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Not only is May listed as a -200 favorite, but he has the easiest path to success tonight against Arizona. The Diamondbacks started hot last night against Julio Urias. After putting up two runs on three hits through the second, they had just one more hit the rest of the night.

Corbin Carroll is a frontrunner for NL Rookie of the Year, and an absolute joy to watch on the diamond. That said, he may just be the only bright spot for Arizona this year.

May isn’t an ace in the sense of being a dominant pitcher, but that won’t be necessary here. He threw just 30 innings in 2022, but overall he pitched well. He had an 8.7 K/9, which is a serviceable rate in a plus matchup like this one. Dustin also had a 4.2 BB/9, but those numbers seem to be more of an outlier than anything in a small sample size. I’m not expecting a dominant performance, but he will certainly be an easy SP to click on for cash games.

Christian Javier vs Chicago White Sox

The MLB schedule gods gave most of the terrible teams a day off after embarrassing themselves yesterday. The White Sox nearly ran themselves into a loss…literally. This is a team loaded with talent, but one who will have a tough time to put up numbers on Friday night.

Javier was fantastic in 2022, posting a 11.74 K/9 and 2.54 ERA (2.43 xERA) across 148.2 IP. In his final four starts of the season, he tossed 23 innings, allowed ZERO runs on SIX hits with a 29/6 K/BB. Yes, those numbers are real. I double and triple-checked.

Javier and the Astros are listed as -150 favorites to bounce back from a disappointing Opening Day result.

Robbie Ray vs Cleveland Guardians

I debated putting Jesus Luzardo in this spot, but his matchup is quite a bit tougher and he is an underdog. I do like him as a GPP pivot, and will make his way into some lineups today.

We are here to talk about Robbie Ray. This guy has had a roller-coaster of a career, having dealt with some massive command issues earlier in his career. He turned things around and took home the 2021 CY Young.

Two things are consistent with Robbie Ray. He strikes out a lot of batters (10.04/9 in 2022, 11.04 career), but he also serves up a lot of home runs. He served up 32 longballs in 32 starts in 2022, leading him to a 1.54 HR/9 which is…not good. You take the good with the bad with Ray, and if he is commanding his pitches, the sky is the limit.

The Guardians have some patient hitters and some power in their lineup, so Ray could find himself in a few tough spots. If he can navigate Jose Ramirez (J-Ram is 1-9 in his career off Ray for you BvP people), Ray will be one of the top scorers tonight. He was tremendous in Spring Training, posting a 26/6 K/BB and an ERA and WHIP both right around 1.00. Ray will find a way.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

San Diego Padres vs Kyle Freeland

We don’t have the pleasure of picking on the worst starting LHP in all of baseball again today, but in my opinion, Freeland isn’t far behind. He posted a 6.75 K/9, 5.11 xERA, 4.48 xFIP…the list goes on. He doesn’t miss bats, and that should be an issue against San Diego tonight. Yes, he pitches better away from Coors Field, but the difference isn’t enough for me to move the needle.

The Friars have a loaded lineup, even with Fernando Tatis Jr. out for the 300th time in his short career. Xander Bogaerts posted a .448 wOBA against LHP in 2022, Manny Machado has always hit lefties well, the corpse of Nelson Cruz is even in play if he is in the lineup. All three of those, as well as Juan Soto, Matt Carpenter, and Ha-seong Kim had walk rates over 10% against LHP in 2022. There are a lot of lefties in this lineup, but Freeland also has some reverse-splits over the last few seasons.

I’m expecting some big innings in San Diego on Friday night.

Houston Astros vs Lance Lynn

Lance Lynn has been a solid, albeit unspectacular pitcher over the last few seasons. He will be 36 in May, and struggled this spring, allowing 7 ER in just 16 innings of work. He isn’t a player I’m going to target heavily on a full slate, but this is a spot I love for the Astros.

Lynn served up 19 homers in 21 starts in 2022, and tonight he gets to face the most dangerous hitter in the universe. Yes, I said it. Yordan Alvarez hit one last night that might still be in orbit. He’s my favorite player to watch in baseball, and I’m expecting big things again (please stay healthy!).

BvP will love to know that “Air Yordan” is 5/11 with a HR off Lynn. Alex Bregman has had his way with Lynn as well, and even without Jose Altuve, this lineup is stacked. Kyle Tucker and Jeremy Pena are two more priority plays in this stack for me. Jose Abreu is fine, but I like to differentiate stacks by swapping out 1B, and I’ll likely do the same tonight. We have to find ways to be different, especially on a short slate.

Seattle Mariners vs Hunter Gaddis

We have to pick spots on a five-game slate, and this is a prime spot for the Mariners. Gaddis posted high strikeout numbers in the minors, but has always had issues with the longball. We won’t spend much time talking about his 7.1 IP in 2022 across two starts, but as Charles Barkley would say…it was TURRIBLE. He gave up SEVEN home runs. Yes, SEVEN.

Gaddis pitched well in Spring Training, but I’ll need to see more of that in an actual MLB game before I believe in him. The Mariners can put up runs in a hurry, and I expect them to bounce back from a slow start yesterday to hang a big number here.

There are some righty-mashers in this lineup. I don’t need to tell you to play Julio Rodriguez (.233 ISO, .368 wOBA vs RHP), but I’m also high on Ty France (.179, .342), Teoscar Hernandez (.194, .333), and Jarred Kelenic. Let’s talk about Kelenic. The kid has just destroyed every level of the minors, then struggled at the big-league level. 2023 is his breakout party. I’m a leader in his fanclub. Don’t get left behind.

MLB DFS Summary

Small slate for a Friday, but we are just getting started! Javier and May look like the best options if you’re a cash game player. I’m high on the Astros, and I’m hoping that’s where we differentiate lineups. I’m sure the Mariners stack will be popular, and for good reason.

Luzardo is a nice GPP option, and I don’t mind Peterson either. Merrill Kelly against the overrated Dodgers lineup could be the ultimate GPP play, but one that has a low floor.

Best of luck on Friday night, I’ll be back tomorrow! Let’s take down some tournaments!

Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!

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MLB

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Mar. 30)

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the first edition of Aces and Bases for the 2023 season, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

We did it, my friends.  We made it through the winter and the MLB season is finally upon us.  If you haven’t noticed yet, the game is very different this season.  With the newly implemented pitch clock, the game is faster.  We’ll definitely see some different things happening earlier in the season until all the players are fully used to playing quicker. 

That said, it’s still baseball and it’s going to be fun to watch.  We have a great 11-game slate today of MLB DFS today.  With it being opening day, we have some studs on the mount so we’ll have a lot of low-scoring games.  We also have some really bad pitchers throwing, so there should still be some offense.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Max Scherzer vs. Miami Marlins

Max Scherzer is coming off what was mostly a successful 2022 campaign in his first season with the Mets. While he did spend some time on the IL last season, when he was healthy, he was the Scherzer we have come to love.  His K/9 were in line with his career numbers and he still managed to get double-digit victories, a rarity these days with pitchers not going too long in games. 

Scherzer gets arguably one of the easier matchups today as he’ll face off against the Miami Marlins.  While their lineup is a little improved over last season with the addition of Luis Arraez, they are still a bad lineup.  The projected lineup for the Marlins today had just a .110 ISO and a .285 wOBA vs. righties last season.  Scherzer should be able to navigate this lineup with ease this afternoon. 

Shane McClanahan vs. Detroit Tigers

Another pitcher with a solid matchup today will be Shane McClanahan.  McClanahan is coming off a very solid sophomore season.  In his second season, McClanahan set career highs in both wins and innings pitched.  At just $7.7k on DK today, we’ll be getting a pitcher that had a 30% K rate in 2022.  I’ll take that every day of the week. 

This Tigers lineup is not one that will strike fear in any pitcher’s eyes.  It’s pretty weak up and down the lineup.  Last season, this team had just a .129 ISO vs. lefties.  The Tigers will more than likely throw out 8 righties today.  McClanahan had a higher K rate last season vs. righties than he did lefties and that sets him up for a solid day today.  You should feel very confident throwing McClanahan out in your lineups today.

Corbin Burnes vs. Chicago Cubs

I expect Corbin Burnes to have a monster season in 2023.  I wouldn’t be shocked to see him win the NL Cy Young award this season.  Burnes is coming off a very solid 2022.  Like McClanahan, Burnes also set career highs in both Wins and Innings pitched.  While the K’s were down a smidge from years past, his K rate was still at a very respectable 30% in 2022.  I expect that number to climb this season.

The Cubs lineup will be improved this season with the additions of Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, and Mancini. That said, it’s still a below-average lineup and one we’ll be able to chase K’s against, especially with a righty on the hill.  This projected lineup today for the Cubs had a 25% K rate vs. righties in 2022.  There’s definitely some upside in throwing out Burnes today. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Atlanta Braves vs. Patrick Corbin

When I opened up the schedule today and saw that Patrick Corbin was the opening-day starter for the Nationals 2 things came to mind.  The first was that they were going to have an awful rotation this season.  Corbin is the epitome of a gas can and while he’ll eventually throw out a gem, more often than not he’s hot garbage. 

The second was that the Braves would be extremely popular.  They’ll be popular for good reason.  Corbin was atrocious in 2022.  He pitched to a nearly 5 xFIP and gave up a nearly 50% hard-hit rate. His 58 barrels against far exceed any pitcher on the hill today.  When Corbin is on the mound, we attack!

This stack will start with Austin Riley today.  He was one of the best in baseball against lefties last season, with a .336 ISO and a .435 wOBA.  He should continue to smash against lefties today in a very soft matchup.  Next up will be Ronald Acuna.  Acuna is now far removed from the knee surgery that saw him start out slowly last season.  He matchups up extremely well today vs. Corbin.  Corbin mostly throws a sinker to righties.  This is a pitch that Acuna has done well against, with a .375 ISO. 

I also really like Matt Olson here.  Never fear the L/L matchup, especially against Corbin.  Olson also has really strong numbers vs. lefty sinkers.  Other guys I like here will be Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Eduardo Rodriguez

2022 was not kind to Eduardo Rodriguez.  He had one of the worst seasons of his career last year.  His strikeouts were down significantly and his xFIP was one of the highest numbers of his career.  To make matters worse for him, he’ll be facing off against a Rays team that just crushes lefties.  The projected Rays lineup today had a .171 ISO and a .337 wOBA vs. lefties last season.  They have some lefty smashers and we’ll want to take advantage of that today.  

My priority with the Rays stack today will be Randy Arozarena.  He smashed lefties last year, to the tune of a .240 ISO and a .382 wOBA.  Fresh off his WBC stint, he’s becoming a force to be reckoned with.  He’ll be in all of my lineups today.  Next up will be Yandy Diaz.  While he doesn’t hit for much power vs. lefties, he does have a very high wOBA of .379.  He’ll set the tone at the top of this lineup today.  

My value plays in this lineup will be Isaac Paredes, Christian Bethancourt, and Jose Siri.  Of the bunch, Paredes is my favorite as he showed a lot of pop at times last season.  Franco, Margot, and Ramirez are also very much in play today. 

Boston Red Sox vs. Kyle Gibson

The Baltimore Orioles offense is going to be a fun one to watch this season.  They are much improved up and down the lineup.  The rotation however is still one that is awful and one we’ll be able to attack often.  On most teams, Kyle Gibson would be a back-of-the-rotation guy.  For the Orioles, he’s being asked to be the ace of the staff.  That says a lot about the Orioles’ pitching staff.  With Gibson, I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits.  His numbers against both sides of the plate are pretty similar.

Any Red Sox stack needs to start with their star player, Rafael Devers.  Devers had a very solid year vs. righties in 2022 and he made us some money with our MLB DFS lineups.  He had a .252 ISO and a wOBA that was pushing .400.  He’s extremely pricey today at nearly $6k, but he should do extremely well in this matchup vs. Gibson.  Next up will be a newcomer to the states, Masataka Yoshida. 

Yoshida was a star in Japan and his skillset should transfer pretty nicely to the states.  He’ll be hitting in the middle of this lineup today and is fairly priced at $4.4k.  Other guys I really like here today will be Trison Casas at just $2.9k on DK, Reese McGuire at just $2.2k, and Alex Verdugo.  The Red Sox are set up today to put up a big number on opening day.  Vegas likes them a lot, and so do I!

MLB DFS Summary

We waited many months for this day and it’s going to be a great one.  I plan on loading up on both Rays and Braves with my bats.  My pitching will be focused on Mad Max and Shane Mac.  This will hopefully be a recipe for success today!

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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MLB

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Oct. 8)

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Wild Card edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

What a first day of the Wild Card it was.  Phillies had a massive comeback and Mad Max had his worst playoff start of his career.  Today’s a new day and hopefully we see some great action. 

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Jacob Degrom vs. San Diego Padres

Although the Padres bats came alive yesterday, I don’t think it happens 2 days in a row.  Mad Max clearly still has a hurt oblique as the spin rates on all of his pitches were down and down significantly.  He had just a few swings and misses last night and was essentially throwing beachballs. 

Today’s going to be different as Jacob Degrom toes the rubber for the Mets.  Although he’s been giving up a few mistakes that have led to some homers against him, he still has a massive 42% K rate over the last month.  The Padres are a team that struggles with fastballs.  Degrom throws a bunch of them.  He should be able to square this Wild Card matchup back up. 

Triston McKenzie vs. Tampa Bay Rays

I said it yesterday and I’ll say it again.  This Rays lineup just isn’t that good.  Outside of Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena, they have no serious weapons.  Shane Bieber absolutely dominated the Rays yesterday and we should see McKenzie do it as well.  McKenzie, in my opinion, is the ace in waiting in this rotation.  He’s been solid over the last month of the season, having a WHIP of .88 and an ERA of just 1.91.  He’s pitching really well right now and that should continue today.    

Other pitchers that could do well today will be  Aaron Nola and Tyler Glasnow.  The only concern with Glasnow is that he has just 2 3-inning starts this season after coming back from TJ surgery.  We can’t expect him to pitch much longer than a handful of innings.  

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Robbie Ray

I like the Blue Jays to get this series back to even today in a matchup vs. their old teammate in Robbie Ray.  Ray had the finest year of his career while wearing the Blue and White of the Blue Jays.  He has fond memories of pitching in Toronto, but those fond memories will be long in the rear-view mirror after he gets shelled today. 

The Blue Jays were one of the better teams in the league this year vs. lefties and should be able to get to Ray today.  Over the final month of the season, Ray was not overly sharp as he had 3 games giving up at least 4 ER, and his final start of the season he got rocked by the A’s. He should struggle vs. a really good Blue Jays lineup today.

Core:  My core with the Blue Jays this afternoon will be Teoscar Hernandez, Whitt Merrifield, and George Springer.  I’m going to prioritize getting these 3 guys into my lineups.  All 3 smashed lefties over the final month of the season.  Springer had a .360 ISO and a .383 wOBA while Hernandez had a .400 ISO and a .388 wOBA.  Then there was Merrifield.  Over the final month, he had a .444 ISO and a .481 wOBA vs. southpaws.  He’s just $3.1k on DK and is a solid value. 

Secondary Pieces/Value:  Other Blue Jays bats I’ll look to today will be Vladimir Guerrero, Bo Bichette, and Danny Jensen.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miles Mikolas

The Phillies bats woke up late in Game 1 and we should see that momentum carry over to game 2 for the series sweep today.  I don’t think Mikolas is any more than an average pitcher.  He has limited K upside and pitches to a ton of contact.  Over the last month of the season, he had an 80% contact rate and just a 24.5% K rate.  Most importantly though, hitters had 8 barrels and 4 homers against him over the 26 innings of work. 

Core:  My Phillies stack is going to start with Kyle Schwarber and JT Realmuto.  Schwarber has absolutely terrorized righties over the last month.  He had a .492 ISO and a .468 wOBA.  A leadoff homer from today isn’t out of the question. 

Realmuto also finished the season strong vs. righties.  Over the final month, he had a .300 ISO and a .380 wOBA.  Mikolas is a pretty splits neutral player so Realmuto won’t be at a disadvantage.   

Secondary/Value:  I also Bryce Harper, Brandon Marsh, and Jean Segura.  Look for this Phillies lineup to light up Mikolas today.  

MLB DFS Summary

Other stacks I like today will be the Mariners vs. Kevin Gausman and St. Louis Cardinals vs. Aaron Nola.  If you want to get really crazy and you’re entering multiple lineups, stacking against Degrom can really set you apart today.  He’s given up 6 homers over his last 28 innings of work.  A ton of Ks too, but the homers are extremely troubling. 

Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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MLB

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Oct. 7)

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Wild Card edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

Playoffs?  You want to talk about Playoffs?  Yes!  Yes, I do!.  The 2022 MLB playoffs start today and as a Mets fan, I’m excited!  MLB DFS is tough during the playoffs as we’re normally dealing with solid starting pitching and today’s pitching is quite good. 

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Max Scherzer vs. San Diego Padres

While the Padres are a star-studded lineup, the Mets signed Max Scherzer to a massive deal in November for this very moment.  He’s been one of the best pitchers of our generation and tonight is his chance to shine on the big New York stage.  He’s coming into this having struggled in his last outing vs. the Braves, giving up 4 ER in just 5 innings of work. 

Prior to that though he had been lights out, not allowing more than an ER in 4 consecutive starts.  His K rate is nearly 31% over the last month, tops of any pitcher today.  He’ll have his hands full tonight, but he’s the best pitcher on the slate.  I’m locking him in as my SP1. 

Shane Bieber vs. Tampa Bay Rays

We’ll see a substantial drop off in strikeouts from Scherzer to Shane Bieber, but Bieber gets the better matchup today.  This isn’t the same Rays team of last year when they had the likes of Brandon Lowe and Austin Meadows.  Lowe’s on the IL and Meadows was shipped off to the Tigers.  While it’s a solid lineup, it’s also one that has struggled vs. righties.  Over the last month, they have just a .117 ISO, a .224 wOBA, and a nearly 32% K rate vs. righties.  This is a really solid spot for Bieber today.

Zack Wheeler vs. St. Louis Cardinals

While my lean right now is to lock in Scherzer and Bieber, I may take a chance on Wheeler as well.  He’s coming into this one fairly fresh as he’s only thrown 15 innings over the last month. And those 15 innings have been absolutely dominant.  The competition in those last 3 starts wasn’t the toughest, but over them, he allowed just 1 run. 

Although the matchup will be tough for him today against the Cardinals, the Cardinals haven’t really been crushing the ball over the last month against righties.  Against righties, over the last month, they have just a .066 ISO.  It’s only that high due to how well Pujols did coming down the stretch.   

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Cleveland Guardians vs. Shane McClanahan

While I typically reserve using the Guardians against righties, they’re getting the pitcher today coming into the playoffs pitching the worst.  McClanahan did not have a strong finish to the season.  It could very well be due to the fact he’s never thrown this many innings.  His 166 innings this year were the most he’s thrown in his young career, and by a lot. 

Over the last month, McClanahan pitched to a 5.21 ERA and a matching xFIP.  He was giving up more hard contact and more flyballs as the season ended.  The hope is that it continues today and that the Guardians can take full advantage of his struggles. 

Core:  My core with the Guardians today will be Jose Ramirez, Oscar Gonzalez, and Andres Gimenez.  Ramirez finished up the season strongly.  He finished with a 5-game hitting streak, a streak that saw him get at least 18 DK points 3 times.  Now he’s normally better as a lefty, but he’s the heart and soul of this franchise.  If they’re going to advance to the NLDS, it will be on his back. 

Next up is Gimenez.  Gimenez has been one of their better hitters vs. lefties all year, and especially recently.  Over the last month, Gimenez has a .410 wOBA vs. lefties in about 30 AB.  McClanahan has been slightly worse against lefties this season, making this L/L matchup for Gimenez all the more sweeter. 

Secondary Pieces/Value:  Other Guardians bats we look to today will be Myles Straw and Gabriel Arias.  Arias finished the season strong vs. lefties, with a .384 wOBA and a .273 ISO over since his call-up in late September.

New York Mets vs. Yu Darvish

After getting swept by the Braves, the Mets returned the favor to the Nationals.  Their bates woke up during that series and they’ll hopefully continue with the momentum from the final series.  The matchup will be tough for them against Yu Darvish, but the time to attack Darvish is when he’s on the road. 

His ERA this season was a full run higher away from San Diego.  It also helps that Darvish hasn’t exactly been Mr. October.  In 7 career playoff starts, Darvish has a 5.18 ERA.  Most of that was from when he struggled in the 2017 playoffs with the Dodgers. 

Core:  My Mets stack will start with Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, and Pete Alonso.  Brandon Nimmo finished the season on fire.  He had 6 hits in his final 8 AB and finished with hits in 9 of his last 10 games.  He’s reasonably priced today at $4.6k on DK. 

After winning the 2022 NL Batting Title, McNeil will look to carry that over to the Wild Card round.  McNeil also finished the season strong, with hits in 10 straight.  In those 10 games, he had multi-hit games in all but 2 of them.  He’s their best pure hitter and they’ll need his bat to keep going if they have any chance of making it to the Dodgers in the next round. 

Secondary/Value:  I also like Francisco Lindor, Eduardo Escobar, and Daniel Vogelbach.  Vogelbach makes for a nice punt at 1B as he’s only $3.4k tonight and has power upside.  

Seattle Mariners vs. Alek Manoah

Sorry Ghost, but I’m siding with the Mariners in this one.  Although the ERA has been low for Manoah over the last month, the xFIP isn’t.  Manoah’s xFIP is more than 3.5 runs higher than this 1.07 ERA over the last month.  A lot of this is due to his disappearing K rate.  Over the last month, Manoah has had just a 21% K rate, down significantly from the start of the year. 

He also has a troubling 50% flyball rate over the last month.  This is a strong Mariners and giving up that many flyballs can lead to some damage.  Lefties are the way to really get Manoah.  They have a higher slugging % and wOBA and 11 of the 16 homers he gave up this year were to lefties. 

Core:  When you stack the Mariners, it all starts at the top with presumed Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez.  What a year for the kid!  He ended the season strong against righties, with a .421 ISO and a .535 wOBA over the last few weeks of the season.  He’ll look to continue that momentum into this matchup vs. Manoah. 

I’ll also build around Carlos Santana.  He’s risky but also possesses some power from the left side.  Although he doesn’t hit for average as a lefty, 16 of his 19 homers this season were as a lefty.  At just $2.6k he’s a nice value with some upside. 

Secondary/Value:  Jarred Kelenic may also make my lineup today.  He has a ton of risk, but at $2.4k I’m willing to eat that risk as he did start to show some power at the end of the year and fewer strikeouts.   

MLB DFS Summary

I also like the Phillies vs. Quintana today. 

Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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MLB

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Oct. 5)

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

Well, we’ve made it friends.  Today is the final day of the regular season.  If you’ve followed along this season, I thank you.  It’s been a wild ride.  We had some ups and downs, but most importantly we had some fun.  All teams are in action today starting at 4 pm est.  I suggest waiting until lineups are out to make any semblance of a lineup today.  Things can get wonky as playoff teams don’t want to risk injury and non-playoff teams, welly they probably just aren’t that good. 

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Corbin Burnes vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

I doubt we get a full allotment of innings out of Burnes today as he’s already at a career-high 199 innings.  That said, he’s the best pitcher on the mound tonight with a solid matchup.  He’s also coming into this one off a dominant 8-inning, 7-strike-out performance against the Marlins.  If we get a notice that he’s all systems go today, he’ll be my SP1 as he has a solid matchup today.

Shohei Ohtani vs. Oakland Athletics

Ohtani being nearly $11k on DK is a tough one.  Does he pitch a full game?  Do they pull him after 5?  This time of the year it’s extremely tough to lock in expensive pitchers, but what a matchup he has today.  Michael Lorenzen was able to strike out 7 Athletics in just 6 innings of work yesterday. 

The A’s are a bad lineup and one that Ohtani can absolutely dominate.  This is the same matchup he had a week ago that saw him strikeout 10 in a masterful performance. He’s only at 161 innings on the year, so it’s possible he has some extra string to play with today.

After these 2 today, it’s really a crapshoot.  A case could be made for Clayton Kershaw, but I doubt he pitches more than a handful of innings.  Yusei Kikuchi is in a solid matchup, but he’s only been pitching a few innings.  Max Fried won’t go too long either against the Marlins, but he’s in a great spot.  

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Merrill Kelly

With this game being in Milwaukee, I suspect the Brewers will want to put their best foot forward for their fans after missing out on the playoffs.  I’m sure the home crowd would be extremely disappointed if their stars sat so we should expect their regulars to get some meaningful innings today. 

Although Kelly has pitched well this season, the last month has been horrific.  Over the last month, Kelly has given up 11 homers and 15 barrels in just 29 innings of work.  He’s coming off an appearance that saw him give up 8 ER to the Giants.  We’ll want to attack Kelly with lefties. They have a .416 slugging % vs. him this season and 12 of the 21 homers he’s given up have been to lefties.    

Core:  My core this afternoon with the Brewers will be Rowdy Tellez, Christian Yelich, and Kolten Wong.  Tellez had a breakout season in 2022, hitting a career-high 34 homers and driving in a career-high 88 runs.  Those good times should continue this afternoon in this matchup.  Wong is another Brewers bat that in comparison to his years past, had a solid season. 

Wong set a career-high in homers as well with 15 bombs this season.  He’s been really strong vs. righties this season, with a .277 AVG and 14 bombs against them.  He’s less than $4k today on DK and should return value here. 

Secondary Pieces/Value:  Other Brewers bats I like this afternoon will be Hunter Renfroe, my boy Jace Peterson, and Garrett Mitchell.  Peterson helped me get a takedown earlier in the year, and he’ll help me again today.  I use him at low ownerships against average righties and more often than not, it pays off. 

Cleveland Guardians vs. Jon Heasley

The Jon Heasley we’ve come to know returned last time out.  After putting together back-to-back solid outings, he gave up 4 ER to the lowly Detroit Tigers in his last outing.  He’ll have a much tougher task against a really solid Guardians lineup. 

The way to dominate Heasley is with lefties.  They have a slugging % over.500 and a wOBA of .373.  12 of the 19 bombs he’s given up this season have been to lefties.  Thankfully this game is at home and the Guardians should play their regulars a bunch today in front of the home crowd.

Core:  My Guardians’ core will consist of Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez, and Josh Naylor.  While Steven Kwan won’t win the Rookie of the Year award, what a season he has had!  He’s hitting .299 and could swipe base number 20 today.  For a rookie, he’s shown an incredible eye with a .372 OBP.  He won’t get us much power, but if he gets on, there’s a strong chance he’ll look to steal a base today. 

Next up is JRam.  Ramirez is currently stuck on 29 homers.  A homer run today would give him 30 homers for the third time in his career.  He’s already set a career-high with 124 RBI.  He certainly did not take his foot off the pedal after signing that fat contract at the start of the year.   

Secondary/Value:  After my core, I’ll fill this stack out with guys like Amed Rosario, Andres Gimenez, and Will Brennan.  If Brennan makes the lineup today against a righty, he’ll be a lock for me.

New York Mets vs. Erick Fedde

You’ll notice a trend here, but I’m going to focus on home teams with my stacks today.  And the Mets are no different.  This will be the final regular season game at Citi and although they’ll host the Padres starting Friday, they’ll still want to put their best foot forward today for a dejected home crowd. 

It also helps that they get a nice matchup vs. Fedde.  Fedde has given up at least 3 runs in 4 straight games and should make it a fourth today.  Fedde is giving up a slugging % over .400 to both sides of the plate so I won’t be too concerned with splits. 

Core: My Mets core will start with Jeff McNeil, Pete Alonso, and Francisco Lindor.  If the Mets have any hopes of beating the Padres in round 1, they’ll need these 3 to be on fire.  McNeil is currently leading the NL batting race, just a notch better than Freddie Freeman.  The last time we saw a Met win the batting title was Jose Reyes in 2011.  Reyes pulled himself out of the game after securing the title. It didn’t go over too well and I doubt we see McNeil pull the same shenanigans.  He’s been the Mets’ best hitter all year and that will continue on the final day of the season. 

What a season from Alonso!  131 RBI and 40 homers!  He’ll look to cap off a solid 2022 season with a strong showing in front of the home crowd.  Look for him to take Fedde Deep today.  

Secondary/Value:  I also like September Player of the Month Eduardo Escobar, Brandon Nimmo, Daniel Vogelbach, and Luis Guillorme.  All Mets are pretty much in play today against a bad pitcher and bad bullpen.  If Francisco Alvarez gets the start at DH today, he makes for a great punt at C.    

MLB DFS Summary

Other attackable spots tonight are the Dodgers vs. Chad Kuhl, Angels vs. Ken Waldichuk, Cubs vs. Graham Ashcraft, and Mariners vs. Tyler Alexander.  Lots of bats in play today. 

Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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MLB

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Sept. 29)

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

Today we have a split slate of games, with both being small 4-game slates of MLB DFS.  This article will highlight the early slate.  For info about the late slate, make sure to drop into discord where we’ll be talking about plays for it later today.      

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Ranger Suarez vs. Chicago Cubs

I should lead by saying that pitching is absolutely atrocious on this early slate.  Every pitcher has the ability to put up single digits today.  Ranger Suarez does however appear to be one of the safer options on the mound.  The Cubs aren’t a very good team.  But this is the time of year when “kids” are in the lineup playing for their spot on next year’s roster.  This same Cubs team put up a 4 spot on Aaron Nola last night and gave him the big fat L. 

That said, this is also a Cubs team that is not very good against lefties.  The projected lineup tonight has just a .090 ISO vs. lefties over the last month and a K rate over 28%.  Suarez doesn’t have much K upside, but he does have what is probably the highest floor of any pitcher this afternoon.  Normally we chase ceilings, but on a day with options like we have today, I’m going to go with the safety net.  

Jonathan Heasley vs. Detroit Tigers

This pick makes me throw up a little bit in my mouth.  That said, Heasley has actually been pitching really well of late.  He’s been doing a great job of limiting any hard contact as his hard-hit rate is just 26% over the last month.  That’s one of the best marks of any pitcher on the hill this afternoon.  He’s also been in double-digit DK points in 5 of his last 7 outings. 

It also helps that he draws a great matchup against a bad Tigers team.  The projected lineup today has just a .149 ISO and a .291 wOBA against righties over the last month.  This is far from a safe pick, but he’s been pitching well and gets a great matchup.  Being only $7.1k on DK today makes me a little more comfortable using him as an SP2 today. 

Lucas Giolito vs. Minnesota Twins

The one pitcher on this afternoon’s slate with any type of strikeout upside is Lucas Giolito.  Over the last month, he has had a 27% K rate.  The next pitcher on the list is Javier Assad at just 22%.  While the year hasn’t been great for Gio, his xFIP of 3.66 tells us that a lot of it has just been bad luck for Gio. 

He has a career-high BABIP of .352.  His next closest season is .273.  He is however coming into this off of a 9-strikeout performance against the Tigers, so his confidence is probably pretty high.  Those 9 k’s were the most he’s had in a game since May.  I will more than likely go with a combo of Suarez and Heasley, but if you want to feel frisky today Gio is your guy. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Javier Assad

We’re at a weird time of the year.  Many teams have been eliminated and only a handful of teams have anything to play for.  The Phillies are one of the few that have a reason to play hard right now.  Their loss to the Cubs last night trimmed their Wild Card lead over the Brewers to just a half-game.  They are in a must-win mode right now.  Luckily for them, they get a soft matchup vs. Javier Assad today. 

The key for the Phillies today will be to remain patient at the plate.  Assad has a ton of issues with walks of late, as evidenced by his 5.4 BB/9 over the last month.  In his last 3 starts, he’s given up a combined 10 walks while striking out 11.  Not exactly a great ratio.  With Assad, we’ll want to attack him with lefties.  Lefties have a .469 slugging % and a .363 wOBA.  Both are significantly higher than what righties have done against him. 

Core/Value:   My Phillies core this afternoon will consist of Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Brandon Marsh.  My favorite here is by far Bryce Harper.  Assad throws his cutter to lefties around 36% of the time.  That’s his most heavily used pitch against them.  This is a pitch that Harper has crushed.  Over the last several seasons, Harper has a .511 ISO and a .506 wOBA vs. righty cutters.  It’s been a few days since Harper last homered and that very well could change today with how well he lines up with Assad. 

While Marsh doesn’t have the power numbers against cutters that Harper has, he’s no slouch against them as he has a .440 wOBA vs. righty cutters.  He’s just $2.1k today and is a great value. 

Secondary Pieces:  Other bats I’ll look to include here this afternoon will be Rhys Hoskins and Alec Bohm. 

Chicago White Sox vs. Louie Varland

I typically reserve using the White Sox against lefties but they get a really nice matchup today.  Varland has really been getting smacked around since getting called up to the big leagues. In just 16 innings of work Varland has given up 4 homers and 5 barrels.  His hard-hit rate against is 41% and his flyball rate is over 45%.  With both of those numbers being over 40%, it’s really a recipe for complete disaster. 

So far in his big league career, it’s been the righties that have given him the most heartbreak.  Righties have a .618 slugging % vs. him and a .418 wOBA.  Both numbers are extremely high and he’s going to face a righty dominant lineup today.  I’m not going to ignore the lefties there though because they still have a .467 slugging % vs. him. 

Core:  My core with the White Sox today starts and ends with Eloy Jimenez.  Anytime there’s a reverse splits pitcher going against Jimenez I pounce on the opportunity to use him.  He’s been phenomenal vs. righties this season, hitting over .300 and slugging over .500.  He’s gone hitless in his last 2 games, but that changes today. 

Secondary/Value:  After locking in Jimenez, I’m going to load up on bats like Elvis Andrus, Jose Abreu, and Gavin Sheets.  This has Gavin Sheets home run day written all over it.  Sheets has a .262 ISO against righties over the past month and a .303 wOBA.  I normally pick my spots with Sheets and this is one of the spots I really like him in.  It also helps that Sheets is just $2.5k on DK this afternoon.  He is one of my favorite value pieces of the day. 

Boston Red Sox vs. Mike Baumann

I will more than likely be sticking with the Phillies and White Sox, but the Red Sox are also in a good spot today.  My concern with the Red Sox though is that Baumann is an extreme groundball pitcher.  If you go here, you’ll want to go full stack or no stack.  Home run chasing in this matchup will be extremely difficult against a pitcher that has a nearly 56% groundball rate, and one that climbs to over 80% against lefties. 

That said, Baumann also gives up a ton of hard contact.  His hard-hit rate over the last month is over 44%, by far the most of any pitcher on this afternoon’s slate.  Lefties, while hitting a ton of grounders against him, have a hard-hit rate of over 57% against him. 

Core: My Red Sox core today will start with Alex Verdugo, Rafael Devers, and Xander Bogaerts.  Verdugo is really hot at the plate right now.  He had another 2 hits in last night’s game, one of which left the park.  He has hits in 8 straight games and very well could make it 9 today.  Against righties over the last month, he has a .361 wOBA and a .208 ISO.  Up next will be Devers. 

Devers is also swinging a hot stick right now, with 6 hits in 12 AB in this series.  He only has 2 AB vs. Baumann but is 2 for 2.  He’s been of the Red Sox’s best hitters all year and should have a solid day at the plate today. 

Value:  I also really like Rob Refsndyer and Connor Wong here for value.  Both guys are priced under $3k today and have been extremely productive of late.  They should help you fit any bats you want today.        

MLB DFS Summary

Other MLB DFS stacks I like today will be the Twins vs. Giolito if you don’t use him and the Royals vs. Eduardo Rodriguez.     Also, if you aren’t using Heasley, stack against him with some Tigers.

Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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