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MLB DFS

9/18 MLB DFS and Betting Winners

written by Vincent Pensabene

A flashback at some of the best performances from the Tuesday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season on the 9/18 MLB DFS and Betting review and look ahead.

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9/18 MLB DFS Winner: The Los Angeles Dodgers

Here is a Tuesday snippet from Cash with the Flash by Phil Naessens, our Premium Gold Sports Betting Column. The bet said to go with the Dodgers and you would have won if you have done so. The Dodgers ended up beating the Tampa Bay Rays by a score of 7-5 behind a bullpen day.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Los Angeles is currently sitting with the best record in the National League and is neck-and-neck with both the Houston Astros and New York Yankees for the best record in the Majors. Kenta Maeda made things interesting but the Dodgers prevailed. Expect the Dodgers to continue winning and stay in the race for the best record in baseball.

9/18 MLB DFS Winner: Chris Paddack

As Jason chose him on the Premium Gold MLB Cheatsheet as a value pitcher, Chris Paddack had a good start against the Milwaukee Brewers last night on the road. Paddack ended up going five innings while allowing one run on one hit with a walk and nine strikeouts.

Outlook for the rest of the season: It has been a great rookie campaign for Chris Paddack. His ERA now sits at 3.33, which would be tied with Mike Minor for 18th-lowest in the Majors if he had the innings to qualify. Paddack has shown he has the stuff to be a top-of-the-rotation guy for San Diego as their window for success begins to open up. Expect Paddack to have another two good starts to end the year.

9/17 MLB DFS Winner: Corey Seager

Here is a screenshot from the Premium Projection Model of the guys who were around Corey Seager’s value on the Tuesday slate. Seager had a solid day at the dish against the Tampa Bay Rays, going 2-for-4 with a pair of doubles and four RBI.

Outlook for the rest of the season:Seager is having a good year after missing most of 2018 due to Tommy John. He now has career highs in doubles and RBI. Sliding down towards the bottom of the order, Seager has still been able to produce for this Dodgers lineup. Expect solid shortstop play while being able to drive runners in with some extra base hits.

9/18 MLB DFS Winner: Pete Alonso

Another player from the Cheatsheet, this time as a top first baseman, “the Polar Bear” Pete Alonso went 2-for-4 against the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday night with a home run and two RBI

Outlook for the rest of the season: Alonso looks like he has broken the 0-for-20 cold slide he was on with back-to-back games with multi-hits. Alonso also has the Major League lead with 48 home runs with the New York Mets sitting four games out of a postseason berth with 11 games left. Alonso should easily break the 50 home run mark and boost the offense to keep the Mets alive until the final days.

6 years ago 0 comments

MLB

9/17 MLB DFS Pitching and Prop Picks

6 years ago

written by

This 9/17 MLB DFS slate has me oddly excited. It was a great weekend of NFL DFS, and another winning weekend for yours truly. Although the big money screenshots are alluring, the everyday DFS player understands it is all about your ROI (Return on Investment). Taking down a large field GPP is nice, don’t get me wrong, but the most successful players in the industry rarely do this. What they do accomplish on a regular basis is a solid 3-to-5 times ROI. It’s all about the long haul. So, with Harborlights’ “Isolation Ritual” playing in the background here is tonight’s picks.

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On the Defense

Once again on this 9/17 MLB DFS slate the Mets are at Coors Field with an implied total of 13.5. Lucky for us we have some nice mid-priced options on both sites to complement Justin Verlander, for example, if you were to do so on a two-pitcher site like DK.

JustinVerlander vs. Texas Rangers

$12,000 FD / $12,800 DK

With a Coors Field game, and plenty of starting pitching on this 9/17 MLB DFS slate to take a chance on, Verlander could be low owned. The Rangers are striking out 24.2 percent of the time versus RHPs with a wRC+ of 87. In his last four starts facing Texas he literally put up video game numbers, completely dominating them to the tune of 35 strikeouts over 26 innings while only allowing five earned runs. There is little doubt he is the top option tonight.

MilesMikolas vs. Washington Nationals

$7,200 FD / $7,900

Much like last night I completely expect this game to be low scoring. Dakota Hudson certainly posted a great start last night, but for DFS purposes put up a dud, netting one strikeout. On this 9/17 MLB DFS slate the K upside is certainly in question with the Nationals only striking out 21.1 percent of the time versus RHPs, but Mikolas has pitched well in his only start versus the Nats this season. He had four strikeouts over six innings while only allowing one earned run. For the salary he makes an excellent option to pair with Verlander tonight on DK, or as a great large field GPP play on FD.

Adam Plutkovs. Detroit Tigers

$7,800 FD / $7,700 DK

Although I prefer Mikolas the Detroit Tigers often offer a bevy of strikeout upside facing most pitchers, and this 9/17 MLB DFS slate is no different. Over Plutko’s three starts versus the Tigers this season he has dominated them twice. Both times with excellent fantasy numbers. With the Tigers striking out 26.6 percent of the time versus RHPs, and Plutko having shown in the past he can handle this lineup, a fine option has presented itself.

BrettAnderson vs. Kansas City Royals

$6,500 FD / $5,300 DK

It is time to step up on this 9/17 MLB DFS slate and take a chance. The Royals are striking out 28.5 percent of the time over the last seven days and carry a low .309 wOBA versus LHPs. Anderson is certainly no Sandy Koufax, Bob Feller, or Bob Gibson but does have that Denny McClain kind of vibe where he comes out to play now and again, and this game certainly seems like it could be the case. I plan on using him tonight in some large field GPPs on DK to free up major salary.

Name	Team	W	L	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	xFIP
Justin Verlander	Astros	18	6	206	12.01	1.66	1.49	34.70%	15.70%	2.58	3.29
Miles Mikolas	Cardinals	9	13	170.1	7.19	1.59	1.32	47.50%	16.20%	4.28	4.13
Adam Plutko	Indians	6	4	97.2	6.08	1.94	1.94	30.70%	14.50%	4.42	5.56
Brett Anderson	Athletics	12	9	166	4.61	2.6	1.08	54.60%	14.10%	4.07	4.84

On theAttack

For obvious reasons the Mets / Rockies game is the chalkstack of the night. But if one was so inclined to do so on this 9/17 MLB DFSslate you could look elsewhere, like here.

BlakeSnell vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

The algorithms on this 9/17 MLB DFS slate all have the pricing adjusted for the Dodgers facing Blake Snell. The thing is the reports are he is only going to be throwing around three innings. This opens the door for the sub-par Rays relievers to handle the workload. On some of these bats you can certainly take a chance the Dodgers have a big night.

Dodgers vs. LHPs

Name	PA	BB%	K%	SB	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
Cody Bellinger	213	14.60%	16.90%	4	0.385	0.597	0.397	150
Edwin Rios	7	14.30%	28.60%	0	0.429	0.5	0.397	149
Gavin Lux	5	0.00%	20.00%	0	0.2	0.8	0.387	143
A.J. Pollock	96	6.30%	19.80%	2	0.385	0.545	0.386	142
Justin Turner	177	8.50%	19.80%	0	0.356	0.582	0.384	141
David Freese	107	15.00%	26.20%	0	0.383	0.516	0.379	138
Max Muncy	169	11.20%	29.00%	2	0.361	0.527	0.372	133
Chris Taylor	152	11.80%	23.70%	2	0.351	0.545	0.363	128
Russell Martin	64	14.10%	20.30%	1	0.359	0.415	0.338	111
Enrique Hernandez	165	8.50%	16.40%	3	0.339	0.442	0.325	103
Corey Seager	174	8.00%	25.30%	0	0.31	0.378	0.297	85
Will Smith	57	8.80%	40.40%	1	0.281	0.423	0.29	80
Joc Pederson	49	2.00%	30.60%	0	0.245	0.271	0.223	36
Tyler White	104	13.50%	30.80%	0	0.26	0.213	0.222	36
Jedd Gyorko	36	11.10%	19.40%	1	0.25	0.188	0.207	25
Matt Beaty	34	2.90%	17.60%	1	0.176	0.156	0.154	-9

JorgeLopez vs. Oakland Athletics

The Athletics are fighting harder than Rocky Balboa, atleast in the first three movies. Although Lopez has posted a few decent startsas of late, 41.1 percent of the baseballs still exit the bat at 95+ MPH. Upagainst a team like Oakland who often puts the ball in play, on this 9/17 MLBDFS slate a Dodgers / Athletics stack would certainly be a nice option.

Athletics vs. RHPs

Name	PA	BB%	K%	SB	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
Seth Brown	47	10.60%	21.30%	0	0.489	0.683	0.483	212
Matt Olson	353	11.60%	25.80%	0	0.385	0.588	0.398	154
Mark Canha	321	13.40%	24.00%	2	0.408	0.532	0.395	153
Marcus Semien	517	11.40%	14.30%	10	0.366	0.523	0.371	136
Ramon Laureano	331	6.00%	26.90%	9	0.344	0.535	0.363	131
Matt Chapman	465	9.90%	22.80%	1	0.34	0.498	0.351	122
Robbie Grossman	409	12.70%	17.40%	8	0.35	0.362	0.311	96
Chad Pinder	181	3.90%	24.90%	0	0.272	0.408	0.285	78
Jurickson Profar	378	8.20%	14.60%	5	0.27	0.395	0.281	75
Josh Phegley	231	4.80%	20.80%	0	0.271	0.373	0.273	70
Khris Davis	365	7.70%	29.60%	0	0.266	0.339	0.259	60

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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick

Alex Bregman has been in a bit of slump as of late, batting .188 over the last seven days. With Lance Lynn dominating the Astros this season, and Bregman having little success over eight at bats, under all the way.

With Choo batting .183 lifetime off of Verlander over 93 plate appearances, and his complete dominance this season of the Rangers, under all the way.

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6 years ago 0 comments

MLB

9/17 MLB DFS Winners

Vincent Pensabene 6 years ago

written by Vincent Pensabene

A flashback at some of the best performances from the Monday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season on the 9/17 MLB DFS review and look ahead.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

9/17 MLB DFS Winner: Robbie Ray

As Jason had him in our Premium Gold Cheatsheet as a value pitcher, Robbie Ray had a solid start against the Miami Marlins last night. He supplied six innings of one run ball while giving up one hit with four walks and seven punchouts.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Ray hasn’t been a huge factor in terms of innings, as he hasn’t pitched more than 6.0 innings in his last 11 starts. The Diamondbacks are all but out on a postseason berth, but with a couple of outings left, Ray could be a good value option. Expect him to throw a quality amount of innings but give up a good amount of baserunners as well.

9/17 MLB DFS Winner: Jake Lamb

Facing the Miami Marlins at the plate, Jake Lamb had a pretty good day at the plate. Lamb went 1-for-3 with a double and four RBI on the day. In an injury-plagued season, Lamb is getting some more power in his swing as the season starts to near the finish.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Jake Lamb has not had the 2019 season that he envisioned after a short 2018 as well. It’s not a huge sample size with just 164 at-bats, but he has a .693 OPS which isn’t terrible either. Expect him to get his swing right and hope he remains healthy for the 2020 campaign.

9/17 MLB DFS Winner: Kyle Schwarber

Here is a screenshot from the Premium Projection Model of Kyle Schwarber, who was also a value outfielder on the cheatsheet. Going up against the division-rival Cincinnati Reds, Schwarber had a good day at the plate. He ended the day going 1-for-4 with a three-run home run and was a big factor in the victory for the Cubs,

Outlook for the rest of the season: Schwarber has been not a good for average, but has a .840 OPS on the year. This also was the second game in a row where he slugged a home run and five HRs in his last 15 games. Now is the perfect time for Schwarber to heat up as Anthony Rizzo is out of the lineup while the Cubs fight to possibly win the N.L. Central crown. Expect Schwarber to keep slugging down the final stretch.

9/17 MLB DFS Winner: Adalberto Mondesi

Aldalberto Mondesi had a good day at the plate on the road against the Oakland Athletics and Jason predicted this, as he was his value shortstop. He went 3-for-5 with him being a home run shy of the cycle while adding two RBI. This is great considering he is going against a playoff-contending pitching staff.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Mondesi has been one of the few bright spots for Kansas City this season, as he is batting .270 with 39 stolen bases. He isn’t going to provide much pop off the bat, but his speed makes him avoid slumping for long stretches. Expect Mondesi to get a good amount of hits and produce for the final couple of weeks of the season.

6 years ago 0 comments

MLB

9/16 MLB DFS Pitching and Prop Picks

6 years ago

written by

This 9/16 MLB DFS slate is small but extremely appetizing. Any time we have an implied total of 13.5 runs in any MLB game it becomes a clear indicator of where all the ownership is going to be directed. The problem is, we also have some excellent SP1 options tonight. So, with the new Sect LP playing in the background, I bring you today’s pitching picks.

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On theDefense

Salary is a huge issue on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate, we haveseveral top priced starters with little in the way of mid-tier value. This isgoing to make stacking Coors Field tough unless you take some serious chances.

StephenStrasburg vs. St. Louis Cardinals

$10,400 FD / $11,800 DK

There is little question that Strasburg is the top pitchingoption for this 9/16 MLB DFS slate. The Cardinals are striking out 22.5 percentof the time versus RHPs with a wOBA of .313. The last time “The Stras” faced St.Louis he had nine strikeouts over 6 2/3 innings while allowing one earned run.If you are going to spend tonight, here is where to look for the highest Kupside.

JoseBerrios vs. Chicago White Sox

$8,500 FD / $10,200 DK

At times I am baffled with the price differences between thesites on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate. For $8,500 tonight on FD Berrios is a highupside option at a bargain price. On DK I have to say “No way Jose” outside oflarge field GPPs. Regardless, the White Sox are striking out 25.7 percent ofthe time versus RHPs with a low .312 wOBA. This season Berrios is 3-1 versusthe Sox with a 3.00 ERA and 25 strikeouts over 27 innings. Love the matchup,hate he is not cheaper on DK.

DakotaHudson vs. Washington Nationals

$8,600 FD / $8,100 DK

Sniffing out the third pitching option on this 9/16 MLB DFSslate was like threading a needle with fat fingers. Although I do like TannerRoark versus the Royals, that $9,300 price tag on DK scared me away. Robbie Rayseemed like another option with great numbers versus Miami, like everyone else.But that blister issue is one where it seems prudent to hold back the cash fora start while we wait and see. Remember Rich Hill’s blister?

The clear choice seems to be Hudson. On FD I prefer Berrios, but on DK here is your best SP2 option at the price. The Nationals are 10^th in MLB in wOBA versus RHPs, and on the lower side of the strikeout world at 21.2 percent. Hudson, however, did strike out seven while only allowing one earned run over six innings in his only start facing the Nats this season. On a tricky 9/16 MLB DFS slate he is the shining star in a SP2 galaxy of dead planets.

Boom orBust

One possible matchup stands out to me on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate for an uber cheap SP2 option. The problem, of course, is he has serious potential to sink you as well. If you are not among the faint of heart this is for you.

PabloLopez vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

$6,700 FD / $5,500 DK

If you are playing on FD on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate, you are better served spending up. The pricing is reasonable, and you can still fit some great bats in without taking this risk. On DK, it is a different world. The Diamondbacks are striking out at a lower 21.3 percent of the time facing RHPs with a low .306 wOBA. Over the last seven days they are batting a pathetic .167 with a wRC+ of 26. If memory serves me that is about the lowest wRC+ I can remember. Attacking a slumping team with a sub-par pitcher sometimes is like hitting the DFS jackpot, or the toilet.

Name	Team	W	L	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	xFIP
Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	17	6	10.79	2.31	1.04	50.10%	15.60%	3.49	3.2
Jose Berrios	Twins	12	8	8.6	2.29	1.19	42.10%	12.10%	3.63	4.38
Dakota Hudson	Cardinals	15	7	6.93	4.23	1.18	57.20%	21.20%	3.38	4.49
Pablo Lopez	Marlins	5	8	7.97	2.16	1.31	46.60%	15.90%	4.97	4.24

On theAttack

On this small 9/16 MLB DFS slate the attack options arequite limited with the volume of positive pitching matchups. The Mets / Rockiesgame is where the DFS world is looking so why not look elsewhere?

KevinGausman vs. Chicago Cubs

There is a bit of confusion here as to whether it is Sonny Gray, or Kevin Gausman starting tonight. The latest report I have is Gausman. Lucky for us the pricing is still adjusted to Gray. This means all the Cubs bats are discounted facing a pitcher with a 6.28 road ERA against one of the best hitting teams in baseball. On this 9/16 MLB DFS slate attack this with everything you got.

ChicagoCubs vs. RHPs

Name	PA	BB%	K%	SB	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	wRC+
Nico Hoerner	26	11.50%	11.50%	0	0.423	0.565	0.988	0.402	149
Anthony Rizzo	443	12.40%	14.20%	4	0.413	0.541	0.954	0.4	147
Kris Bryant	477	9.90%	22.40%	3	0.375	0.516	0.891	0.375	131
Willson Contreras	290	9.70%	24.80%	1	0.359	0.528	0.886	0.368	127
Jason Heyward	440	12.50%	17.50%	8	0.37	0.488	0.859	0.359	121
David Bote	251	13.50%	24.70%	3	0.386	0.458	0.844	0.358	119
Victor Caratini	197	10.20%	22.30%	1	0.355	0.48	0.835	0.351	115
Kyle Schwarber	447	11.60%	25.10%	2	0.329	0.522	0.851	0.348	113
Nicholas Castellanos	505	5.50%	24.40%	2	0.321	0.49	0.811	0.338	108
Javier Baez	448	4.50%	27.90%	3	0.308	0.512	0.82	0.337	106
Robel Garcia	51	5.90%	39.20%	0	0.275	0.511	0.785	0.317	93
Ben Zobrist	109	11.00%	13.80%	0	0.358	0.347	0.705	0.311	89
Ian Happ	90	11.10%	22.20%	2	0.3	0.43	0.73	0.308	87
Jonathan Lucroy	215	9.30%	14.40%	0	0.33	0.378	0.708	0.308	91
Albert Almora Jr.	241	4.10%	16.20%	2	0.284	0.442	0.726	0.299	81

ColeHames vs. Cincinnati Reds

Cole Hamels was lit up in his only start this season facing the Reds allowing five earned runs over four innings. With cheap bats in need on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate there is a bevy of value to be found here on both sites tonight.

Cincinnati Reds vs. LHPs

Name	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	SB	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	wOBA	wRC+
Phillip Ervin	84	7.10%	20.20%	0.35	0	0.405	0.662	1.067	0.312	0.436	168
Aristides Aquino	43	7.00%	32.60%	0.21	1	0.372	0.667	1.039	0.359	0.423	160
Eugenio Suarez	143	17.50%	30.80%	0.57	2	0.406	0.574	0.98	0.296	0.401	145
Alex Blandino	24	25.00%	20.80%	1.2	0	0.417	0.278	0.694	0.056	0.332	101
Curt Casali	88	10.20%	19.30%	0.53	0	0.33	0.429	0.758	0.169	0.321	93
Freddy Galvis	183	1.60%	20.80%	0.08	2	0.295	0.422	0.717	0.139	0.302	85
Jose Peraza	100	7.00%	12.00%	0.58	2	0.32	0.376	0.696	0.108	0.3	80
Jose Iglesias	119	4.20%	10.10%	0.42	0	0.311	0.389	0.7	0.115	0.3	79
Joey Votto	163	11.00%	23.90%	0.46	2	0.344	0.322	0.665	0.07	0.299	79
Josh VanMeter	26	11.50%	30.80%	0.38	1	0.269	0.227	0.497	0.091	0.234	37
Derek Dietrich	25	0.00%	36.00%	0	0	0.24	0.217	0.457	0.043	0.211	21
Tucker Barnhart	49	12.20%	26.50%	0.46	1	0.245	0.163	0.408	0.023	0.188	6

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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick

With no interest in either sides of the plate tonight and two starting pitchers both capable of easily reaching these totals I am going with the over on both.

6 years ago 0 comments

MLB

9/16 MLB DFS Winners

Vincent Pensabene 6 years ago

written by Vincent Pensabene

A flashback at some of the best performances from the Sunday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season on the 9/16 MLB DFS review and look ahead.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

9/16 MLB DFS Winner: Anibal Sanchez

Anibal Sanchez was able to provide value for any DFS player that added him as their pitcher. Against the division-rival Atlanta Braves, Sanchez went seven shutout innings while only allowing three hits and a walk. He also added three strikeouts.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Sanchez could get postseason starts depending on how the Nationals want to line up their rotation and if they could advance out of the Wild Card round. More of a question mark is his 1.29 WHIP, but he could be a long man on a playoff roster if need be. Expect two more starts out of him and for Sanchez to throw a good amount of innings.

9/16 MLB DFS Winner: Howie Kendrick

The Washington Nationals were able to avoid being swept. Howie Kendrick was a big part of the reason the Nats were able to win the final game of the series vs. Atlanta as he went 3-for-4 with a home run, three RBI and two runs scored

Outlook for the rest of the season: In about a half season of at-bats from Howie Kendrick, he is producing very well. He is now at .336 with 15 home runs and 60 RBI. Almost as important as his numbers, he provides veteran leadership to a Nationals team where early postseason exits seem to be common. Expect Kendrick to produce well in his at-bats for the final stretch of the season and beyond.

9/16 MLB DFS Winner: Wellington Castillo

In a battle of two teams trying to see what they have going into 2020, the Chicago White Sox travelled to Seattle to play the Mariners, Wellington Castillo had a solid day at the plate, going 1-for-3 with a grand slam and a sacrifice fly.

Outlook for the rest of the season: This has not been a very good year for Castillo, as he is batting just .204 in 211 at-bats. Someone should remind him how the balls are juiced this season as he has a swing that could produce more home runs than just the 10 he sits at. Expect Castillo to play a decent amount of the remaining games and try to figure something out offensively, as he could be a free agent at the end of the year.

9/16 MLB DFS Winner: Chicago Cubs Offense

The Chicago Cubs dominated at Wrigley Field last night against the division-rival Pittsburgh Pirates, scoring 16 runs on 19 hits with three walks and reaching on an error. The production was evenly spread across the lineup but Kris Bryant went 3-for-5 with a pair of home runs.

Outlook for the rest of the season: At the time of this writing, the Cubs are sitting in the second Wild Card spot and are just two games behind the Cardinals in the N.L. Central. The Cubs have the sixth-lowest team ERA with a 4.04. The offense also scores 5.11 runs per game. Expect the Cubs to continue their winning ways and make the postseason as it would be a huge disappointment if they fail.

6 years ago 0 comments

MLB

The MLB DFS Stacks and Hitting Picks Of Destiny For September 14

6 years ago

written by

This Saturday September 14th slate is all about landing the right bats. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the MLB DFS Picks of Destiny.

Check out our Data Driven Projections for FanDuel Hitters for Premium Gold Members.

Todays picks are listed in order of preference, not price.

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here!

Stacks

Cleveland Indians

The second game of the doubleheader will be on the main slate and should be a bullpen game for the Twins. Former Uber driver Randy Dobnak recently got called up and he will be starting for Minnesota. He actually has looked pretty good in MiLB with a 2.07 ERA but this Indians team is a different caliber of hitters than what he is used to. In Dobnak’s last three innings pitched in the bigs he has given up three runs. I feel like the Twins will try and extend him, until he implodes, in an attempt to preserve the bullpen arms as long as possible.

Fransisco Lindor, Franmil Reyes, Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez, Yasiel Puig, Jason Kipnis

San Diego Padres

Last night Coors Field made the struggling Padres finally come alive again. Tonight Peter Lambert is pitching for the Rockies and it’s not going to be pretty, again. He currently has a 6.86 ERA and gets absolutely dominated every time he is on the mound. I had to go back to the June game-logs to find a start where he didn’t give up multiple runs. The Padres are priced fairly tonight and there really is no reason half of them shouldn’t pay off. Last night they were able to put eight runs on the board. If they can do that again, which they certainly have a chance of with Lambert pitching, we should be building our bankroll for NFL tomorrow.

Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado, Greg Garcia, Nick Martini, Wil Myers, Austin Hedgers

Colorado Rockies

I like to play the Rockies vs lefties. Eric Lauer is on the bump for the Padres, and while he has been decent for San Diego (4.41 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) pitching in Coors Field isn’t something that is going to help his numbers. My MLB DFS stack will start with Trevor Story, who has already taken Lauer deep twice in just 12 at bats against him in his career. The Rockies put up 10 runs last night, we just need them to keep their foot on the gas.

Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Ian Desmond, Ryan McMahon, Patrick Valaika, Daniel Murphy, Charlie Blackmon

Sneaky Stacks: White Sox, A’s, Giants, Twins

Catcher: James McCann ($3,000 FD) goes against Felix Hernandez (R) in Seattle. In 10 ABs vs Hernandez, McCann has one home run and hits to a .400 ISO/.315 wOBA. On the season McCann has 12 home runs vs right handed pitching. Hernandez has been struggling towards the back end of the season and is getting lit up basically every start. He has not made it six innings since April 30th. McCann should be low owned and he has upside.

Catcher Pivot: Austin Hedges

First Base: Jose Abreu ($4,100 FD) is on fire right now. He has hit five home runs in his last eight games. In the same time frame he has had at least one hit in every game. He also gets to pick on the struggling Hernandez mentioned above. On the season, he has 24 home runs vs righties with a .226 ISO/.327 wOBA. Love it for MLB DFS.

First Base Pivots: Carlos Santana, Eric Hosmer, Daniel Murphy

Second Base: Ryan McMahon ($3,500 FD) is at home in Coors today and is priced very fairly for someone who is in the middle of the lineup and hits lefties at .229 ISO/.337 wOBA. He has nine home runs in 140 ABs vs. southpaws and I think the Rockies are going to get to Eric Lauer tonight. If you stack Rockies, McMahon fits nicely.

Second Base Pivots: Jason Kipnis, Greg Garcia

Third Base: Nolan Arenado ($4,800 FD) is the best Rockie on the board. He is another hot bat right now with three home runs in his last four games. He smashes lefties at .302/.448 wOBA. He is my favorite MLB DFS bat on the slate.

Third Base Pivots: Yoan Moncada, Manny Machado

Shortstop: Francisco Lindor ($4,400 FD) is also slashing the ball lately. He has four home runs in his last six games. He has 23 home runs on the season vs righties and hits .274 ISO/.380 wOBA. He should lead the charge vs. the Twins bullpen tonight and is extraordinarily safe. Plug in him, or Trevor Story (OR BOTH) and get weird somewhere else.

Shortstop Pivots: Trevor Story (also elite option at SS)

Outfield: Ian Desmond ($3,400 FD). I am going to stay with this underpriced Rockie. Desmond has the second best numbers vs. lefties on the Rockies, which is surprising. He carries a .301 ISO/.389 wOBA with 11 home runs on the season, which ties Charlie Blackmon. I trust him tonight hitting behind Arenado.

Outfield: Franmil Reyes ($3,000 FD) is just too cheap. He has be up and down lately but I can get behind him in this bullpen game at $3,000 on FanDuel. He has the most home runs vs righties on the Indians with 28. He hits .272 ISO/.339 wOBA. Excellent MLB DFS value here.

Outfield: Wil Myers ($3,200 FD) has a hit in 12 of his last 13 games with two home runs. He has 10 home runs on the season vs righties. I like his place in the order and I like the park his is hitting in today. Also he faces Peter Lambert (6.68 ERA) who gets absolutely crushed in Coors.

Outfield Pivots: Charlie Blackmon, Yasiel Puig, Nick Martini, Kyle Lewis

I primary used FanDuel when building optimal MLB DFS lineups.

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6 years ago 0 comments

MLB

9/13 MLB DFS Winners

Vincent Pensabene 6 years ago

written by Vincent Pensabene

A flashback at some of the best performances from the Thursday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season on the 9/13 MLB DFS review and look ahead.

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9/13 MLB DFS Winner: Adam Eaton

As Jason had him in our Premium Gold Cheatsheet as a value outfielder, Adam Eaton had a productive day at the plate against the Minnesota Twins. He ended up going 2-for-5 with a home run and two RBI. Eaton also had an outfield assist during the game as well.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Eaton has been producing for the Washington Nationals during the stretch run, batting .304 in his last 30 games. He also has seven of his 14 home runs during that span. Expect Eaton to continue feasting off the opposing pitchers in the final few weeks of the season.

9/13 MLB DFS Winner: Freddy Galvis

Here is a Premium Gold screenshot of all the Top 25 players based on salary from the Reds-Mariners game last night. Freddy Galvis was the main component in the Reds lineup against the Seattle Mariners. He ended up going 2-for-4 with a home run, four RBI and a walk.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Do not expect Freddy Galvis to be a productive offensive shortstop compared to the rest of the league. With this game, he is 6-for-his-last-46 and has a miserable .200 OBP in that span. There will be better offensive players for value prices compared to Galvis down the stretch,

9/13 MLB DFS Winner: Yu Darvish

Here is a list of the top-15 pitchers on the slate based on salary from our Premium Gold Pitcher Projection Model. Yu Darvish was in the Top Five but still seemed like a value for how he pitched against the San Diego Padres. He ended up going six innings of two hit ball with two walks and 14 strikeouts. All but four outs were via the strikeout.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Yu Darvish seems to have figured something out since the All-Star break, going 4-2 with a 2.44 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP. Darvish is getting stronger at a time where the Cubs are tied with the Milwaukee Brewers for the second Wild Card spot. The team needs to win as much as possible and Darvish will provide great outings every time on the mound.

9/13 MLB DFS Winner: New York Mets Offense

The New York Mets had a good day at the plate as a team against the Arizona Diamondbacks, scoing 11 runs with 11 hits and added three walks. Juan Lagares went 2-for-4 with a pair of homers and six RBI (all with two outs).

Outlook for the rest of the season: The Mets have just swept a four-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks and are two games back of the second N.L. Wild Card spot. The Mets are scoring 4.86 runs per game and 6.6 runs in their previous five games. With their subpar bullpen, the Mets need the offense to continue to put up solid numbers since no lead is necessarily safe.

6 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

9/12 DFS Hitting Picks & Stacks: Big Bats for Thursday

jason mezrahi 6 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

Today is thirsty Thursday, and I’m going to quench you with some easily digestible lineup selections for the 9/12 DFS main slate, which kicks off at 7:05 and has just seven games. We’ve got DFS stacks, one-offs and some standout options for GPPs, including one squad that’s bound to break through against a veteran hurler with limited stuff. Let’s go win some green!

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9/12 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

Atlanta Braves at Drew Smyly

I’m going GPP before cash here and picking on a pitcher with a 2.16% HR/FB rate in Drew Smyly. You can stack Coors all you want in the afternoon slates (what’s with the 2-1 games, fellas?), but I’m looking to a talented Braves lineup that’s loaded with powerful right-handed bats and some left-handed hitters like Freddie Freeman who don’t crumble when a southpaw is on the mound. Atlanta carries a .331 team wOBA against LHPs and Smyly is eminently hittable. The classic 1-5 stack is in play, as are platoon bats Austin Riley (.291/.375/.745 slash) and GPP favorite Adam Duvall (if he cracks the lineup).

LosAngeles Dodgers at Dylan Bundy

Yup, I’m going right back to the Dodgers despite an anemicperformance last night against John Means, who’s a pretty good pitcher in hisown right. Dylan Bundy is a lot easier to attack from both sides of the plate(.398 xwOBA vs. LHBs and .391 vs. RHBs), so I’m not concerned about keepinganybody off. Lefties Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger and Matt Beaty are all duefor offensive breakouts and Gavin Lux ($2,600 on DK, $2,800 on FD) and CoreySeager ($4,500 on DK, $3,600 on FD) are plenty affordable as well.

Houston Astros vs. Homer Bailey

His name is Homer, and these are the power-hitting Astros. I’m not trying to oversimplify things, because there’s plenty of data to support a blitz on Bailey –including a park shift that favors Houston over the veteran right-hander. Bailey has yielded a .429 xOBA to righties since 2018 when pitching his home games in Oakland and Kansas City, and the Astros are at home and have bats from both sides of the plate that I want exposure to here, including George Springer, Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez. Value options include Aledmys Diaz and Abraham Toro, not to mention inexpensive catcher Robinson Chirinos.

9/12 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Washington Nationals at Kyle Gibson

Boston Red Sox at Clay Buchholz

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jhoulys Chacin

9/12 DFS Hitting Catcher

Francisco Cervelli, ATL at PHI

DK ($2,700) FD ($2,300)

This is a pure value play considering the Braves have so much talent throughout their lineup and Cervelli does a pretty good job (.414 xwOBA) vs. LHPs. He’s a cheap fifth batter in Braves stacks on DK and makes for an inexpensive utility or C-1B play on FD — if you can stomach rostering just three other bats from this team.

9/12 DFSHitting First Baseman

Mitch Moreland, BOS at TOR

DK ($4,000) FD ($2,800)

You’re getting a great matchup in the middle of a stacked lineup for cheap price with Moreland. Big Mitch has BvP covered in a 4-for-8 small sample against Buchholz, who’s he’s homered against, and there’s plenty to like about going with this sneaky lefty at your 1B spot in a crowded GPP field focused on bigger names. Moreland has double-dinger potential and makes for a fine one-off or part of a Sox mini-stack.

9/12 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Nick Solak, TEX vs. TB

DK ($4,100) FD ($3,300)

Going right back to the well with Solak, who’s made me look good in this spot, and doesn’t command a very high price. The Rangers are probably only worth considering for a contrarian, large-field GPP stack because they’ve struggled against lefties this season (just a .308 wOBA and 82wRC+), but Solak offers a .379 ISO against LHPs and the venue is ripe for hitting. I’m not scared of Brendan McKay, even though he’s been able to whiff some bats here and there, and Solak is in the heart of the Rangers lineup with plenty of run-producing opportunities.

9/12 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Josh Donaldson, ATL at PHI

DK ($5,200) FD ($3,500)

Donaldson is historically good against LHPs with a career xwOBA of .XXX and he’s destroyed Smyly in 19 career ABs, including nine hits, three HRs and a 1.629 OPS. Whatever sample size you’re looking at, he’s a great play in a hitter’s park in that potent Atlanta lineup. He and Acuna will be the main focus of my Braves stacks.

9/12 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Corey Seager, LAD at BAL

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,600)

Even after a recent two-homer night, the price on Seager isaffordable and the slick young shortstop has resumed the No. 2 slot in the Dodgersorder. I’ve mentioned my affinity for attacking Bundy in Camden Yards, and thisslate provides an opportunity to get one of the highest upside shortstops (rightthere with Xander Bogaerts) at a cut rate.

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9/12 DFS Hitting Outfielders

Andrew Benintendi, BOS at TOR

DK ($4,000) FD ($3,200)

The Red Sox have been slumping at the plate, but Benintendi’s numbers over the past two seasons against RHBs (.405 xwOBA) make me excited to play him against Buchholz. There aren’t too many outfielders at this price point with as much run-producing upside.

Michael Brantley, HOU vs. OAK

DK ($4,300) FD ($4,000)

I have no qualms about you stacking the Astros outfield in its entirety and using both Alvarez and Springer, but if there’s one bat I’d lean towards as a one-off, especially if I’m building an expensive stack elsewhere, it’s Brantley. He’s always a little too cheap and offers plenty of upside with excellent numbers at home (.381 wOBA) and against RHPs (.207 ISO).

Ronald Acuna, Jr., ATL at PHI

DK ($5,500) FD ($4,100)

Acuna has a .488 xwOBA and .277 ISO vs. LHPs this season andremains the premier leadoff hitter in the NL. He’s an essential part of myBraves stacks, sometimes gets ignored because of his lofty price tag, and isplayable in both cash games and GPPs for his solid floor and soaring upside.

Additional options:

C: Robinson Chirinos ($3,800 DK), Reese McGuire ($3,300 DK)

1B: Jesus Aguilar ($2,800 FD), Matt Adams ($3,400 DK)

2B: Cavan Biggio ($4,200 DK) Brad Miller ($3,000 DK)

3B: Kyle Seager ($4,300 DK), Eugenio Suarez ($4,700 DK)

SS: Bo Bichette ($5,000 DK), Xander Bogaerts (4,900 DK)

OF: Aristides Aquino ($3,700 FD), Philip Ervin ($3,300 DK),Jonathan Davis ($2,600 DK), Danny Santana ($4,700 DK) Jay Bruce (GPP option at 3,800on DK)

6 years ago 0 comments

MLB

9/12 MLB DFS Winners

Vincent Pensabene 6 years ago

written by Vincent Pensabene

A flashback at some of the best performances from the Wednesday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season on the 9/12 MLB DFS review and look ahead.

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9/12 MLB DFS Winner: Tim Anderson

As Jason had him in our Premium Gold Cheatsheet as a shortstop, Tim Anderson had a solid day at the plate against the Kansas City Royals. At the plate, Anderson went 2-for-4 with a pair of runs scored.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Anderson will be competing with D.J. LeMahieu and Michael Brantley for the A.L. Batting Title. Anderson is currently at .333 after this game with 17 games remaining. Expect Tim Anderson to stay in the top three shortstops as the team has nothing to play for for the rest of the season.

9/12 MLB DFS Winner: Jeff McNeil

Here is a screenshot of the New York Mets batters in order of projected points based off of our Premium Gold FanDuel Hitter Projection Model. Jeff McNeil ended up being their best hitter for the game against the Arizona Diamondbacks. He went 3-for-4 with a stolen base, double, two homers and three RBI.

Outlook for the rest of the season: McNeil has vastly improved in every category this season except stealing bases, so it was nice to see him swipe a bag as well. He is doing a great job providing protection in the lineup to Pete Alonso. Expect Jeff McNeil to continue getting multi-hit games and driving in runners in the middle of this Mets order.

9/12 MLB DFS Winner: Chris Paddack

A screenshot of our Premium Pitcher Projection Model. This was the Top 10 pitchers on yesterday’s slate based on salary. Chris Paddack dominated the Chicago Cubs last night at home, going six shutout innings allowing just three hits and a walk while picking up seven strikeouts.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Chris Paddack is doing great in his spoiler role going down the stretch. This is back-to-back outings without allowing a run. The fact he isn’t showing signs of slowing down in his rookie season is great for the future. Expect Paddack to finish the year strong.

9/12 MLB DFS Winner: Texas Rangers Offense

The Texas Rangers had good prodcution from their lineup at home against the Tampa Bay Rays last night, picking up 10 runs on 10 hits with three walks. Six players in the starting lineup picked up a RBI and they were led by Rougned Odor with the game-winning three-run home run in the seventh inning.

Outlook for the rest of the season: The Rangers are a good run-producing team with the sixth-highest total in the American League at 732. That equates to just under five runs a game. Their offense isn’t the reason they find themselves at 73-74 on the year. Expect the team to produce runs but not to the point where you expect double-digits on a weekly basis.

6 years ago 0 comments

MLB

9/11 MLB DFS Pitching and Prop Picks

6 years ago

written by

On this 9/11 MLB DFS slate I would like us all to take a moment to reflect on the memories of all the lives lost on this day in America. I remember clearly where I was on that fateful day, and what I was doing. The confusion, the fear, the total disbelief. My heart goes out to all the families of the victims, may you find some peace in knowing we are all behind you always.

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On the Defense

This 9/11 MLB DFS slate is rather odd in the sense that for the first time in recent memory I will not be using any bottom of the barrel SP2s on DK. I just do not see any with high enough upside.

Sonny Gray vs. Seattle Mariners

$10,200 FD / $10,600 DK

What do you get when you cross a high strikeout upside pitcher with reverse road splits, who benefits from a positive park shift, facing a team that strikes out over 25 percent of the time versus RHPs? The answer on this 9/11 MLB DFS slate is Sonny Gray, who has allowed four earned runs over his last seven starts.

StephenStrasburg vs. Minnesota Twins

$10,500 FD / $11,400 DK

I know it is hard to swallow taking anyone facing the Twins on this 9/11 MLB DFS slate. After all, they absolutely crush RHPs, and LHPs don’t care for them much either. The thing is, not every pitcher is Strasburg. Over his last 20 innings pitched he has racked up 31 strikeouts. Even if a few runs are allowed here, the Twins still strike out out 21.1 percent of the time versus RHPs, opening the door for huge DFS upside.

AdamPlutko vs. Los Angeles Angels

$7,700 FD / $8,800 DK

The Angels are a very unpredictable to team to attack in DFS, and this 9/11 MLB DFS slate is no different. They are 13^th in MLB versus RHPs in wOBA, and 23rd in strikeouts. When you combine these factors, they all spell stay away. Regardless, in Plutko’s last start facing the Angels he went 5 1/3 innings allowing one earned run while sending four batters to the bench in dismay. I expect similar numbers here again tonight.

ReynaldoLopez vs. Kansas City Royals

$8,600 FD / $9,800 DK

Reynaldo Lopez may not be the greatest thing since the grilled cheese sandwich, but he does offer some upside on this 9/11 MLB DFS slate. Although he has had his ups and downs versus the Royals this season, the last time he faced them he had eight strikeouts over six innings, allowing one earned run. In his last start he pitched a complete game, allowing one earned run with 11 strikeouts versus Cleveland.

Name	Team	W	L	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	xFIP
Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	16	6	185	10.8	2.29	1.02	50.10%	15.40%	3.5	3.19
Sonny Gray	Reds	10	6	157.1	10.35	3.43	0.86	51.40%	12.50%	2.75	3.65
Reynaldo Lopez	White Sox	9	12	162	8.28	3.33	1.5	34.20%	12.30%	5.17	5.34
Adam Plutko	Indians	6	4	93.1	6.08	1.83	1.93	32.00%	14.50%	4.44	5.52

On theAttack

There are the obvious stacks pretty much any time there is a Coors Field game, and this 9/11 MLB DFS slate is no different. It is going to be rather difficult to bat load tonight unless you completely fade decent pitching.

ZachEflin vs. Atlanta Braves

With everyone trying to fit Cardinals, Rockies, and Dodgers in their lineups on this 9/11 MLB DFS slate, let’s look elsewhere. Eflin has a 19.06 ERA over 5 2/3 innings vs. Atlanta this year. Despite pitching well in his recent starts I see a major blow up here tonight.

Notable Bats

Freddie Freeman is a top play most nights and tonightis no different. He is posting a .424 wOBA versus RHPs this season with a wRC+of 162.

Josh Donaldson is 6-for-9 with a home run and six RBIversus Eflin. He also is sporting a .393 wOBA versus RHPs on the season.

Matt Joyce is batting .385 with two home runs over the last seven days and carries a .374 wOBA versus RHPs.

Ryan Weber vs. Toronto Blue Jays

In the words of my stepdaughter Hailee, “oof”. Even though the Blue Jays are 26^th in MLB versus RHPs, they still offer a bevy of runs on any given night. With Weber returning from Triple-A tonight, I am sprinkling in Jays bats on this 9/11 MLB DFS slate. Keep in mind, this is more of a boom-or-bust GPP play.

Notable Bats

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has the lowest strikeoutpercentage of any daily starter by far at 17.4 percent versus RHP. He also hasa .365 wOBA against as well.

Rowdy Tellez homered in his only AB versus Shawarynthis season, and I see another huge night tonight batting in the five spot.

Randall Grichuk fares better versus LHPs, but he does offer HR upside facing scrub pitchers at a discount.

Name	Team	PA	BB%	K%	SB	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA R	wOBA L
Freddie Freeman	Braves	477	14.30%	16.10%	6	0.423	0.617	1.041	0.424	0.324
Josh Donaldson	Braves	460	14.10%	23.00%	3	0.383	0.567	0.949	0.393	0.364
Matt Joyce	Braves	173	15.00%	19.70%	0	0.393	0.483	0.876	0.374	0.377
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Blue Jays	318	9.40%	17.60%	0	0.368	0.498	0.866	0.365	0.329
Randal Grichuk	Blue Jays	374	4.80%	28.10%	1	0.265	0.432	0.697	0.29	0.284
Rowdy Tellez	Blue Jays	245	6.50%	28.20%	0	0.273	0.411	0.684	0.284	0.322

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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick

The Indians are 19th in MLB in strikeout versus RHPs, I am going under with Peters, failing to reach this number in three of his last four starts.

The last time Plutko faced the Angels he had four strikeouts. I see this easily happening again. Over all the way.

6 years ago 0 comments

Newer Posts

Older Posts

MLB DFS

9/18 MLB DFS Winner: The Los Angeles Dodgers

9/18 MLB DFS Winner: Chris Paddack

9/17 MLB DFS Winner: Corey Seager

9/18 MLB DFS Winner: Pete Alonso

9/17 MLB DFS Winner: Robbie Ray

9/17 MLB DFS Winner: Jake Lamb

9/17 MLB DFS Winner: Kyle Schwarber

9/17 MLB DFS Winner: Adalberto Mondesi

9/16 MLB DFS Winner: Anibal Sanchez

9/16 MLB DFS Winner: Howie Kendrick

9/16 MLB DFS Winner: Wellington Castillo

9/16 MLB DFS Winner: Chicago Cubs Offense

Stacks

9/13 MLB DFS Winner: Adam Eaton

9/13 MLB DFS Winner: Freddy Galvis

9/13 MLB DFS Winner: Yu Darvish

9/13 MLB DFS Winner: New York Mets Offense

9/12 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

Atlanta Braves at Drew Smyly

LosAngeles Dodgers at Dylan Bundy

Houston Astros vs. Homer Bailey

9/12 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Washington Nationals at Kyle Gibson

Boston Red Sox at Clay Buchholz

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jhoulys Chacin

9/12 DFS Hitting Catcher

Francisco Cervelli, ATL at PHI

DK ($2,700) FD ($2,300)

9/12 DFSHitting First Baseman

Mitch Moreland, BOS at TOR

DK ($4,000) FD ($2,800)

9/12 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Nick Solak, TEX vs. TB

DK ($4,100) FD ($3,300)

9/12 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Josh Donaldson, ATL at PHI

DK ($5,200) FD ($3,500)

9/12 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Corey Seager, LAD at BAL

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,600)

9/12 DFS Hitting Outfielders

Andrew Benintendi, BOS at TOR

DK ($4,000) FD ($3,200)

Michael Brantley, HOU vs. OAK

DK ($4,300) FD ($4,000)

Ronald Acuna, Jr., ATL at PHI

DK ($5,500) FD ($4,100)

Additional options:

C: Robinson Chirinos ($3,800 DK), Reese McGuire ($3,300 DK)

1B: Jesus Aguilar ($2,800 FD), Matt Adams ($3,400 DK)

2B: Cavan Biggio ($4,200 DK) Brad Miller ($3,000 DK)

3B: Kyle Seager ($4,300 DK), Eugenio Suarez ($4,700 DK)

SS: Bo Bichette ($5,000 DK), Xander Bogaerts (4,900 DK)

OF: Aristides Aquino ($3,700 FD), Philip Ervin ($3,300 DK),Jonathan Davis ($2,600 DK), Danny Santana ($4,700 DK) Jay Bruce (GPP option at 3,800on DK)

9/12 MLB DFS Winner: Tim Anderson

9/12 MLB DFS Winner: Jeff McNeil

9/12 MLB DFS Winner: Chris Paddack

9/12 MLB DFS Winner: Texas Rangers Offense

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