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MLB DFS

Starting Rotation 4.20

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

Starting Rotation 4.20

I’m starting today by sending a big thank you to Brian for covering the pitching portion of Monday’s slate. I expected to have internet where I spent the weekend and that was an adventure and he (of course) stepped up massively.

It seems that DK has heard our annoyance with the 6:30 games not being a part of the main slate because they are involved in the Tuesday slate. The slightly not good news is the slate size is 13 games, which is an awful lot. It also shapes up to be similar to yesterday where at first glance, there is not a slam dunk option that we should be totally in love with. Let’s dig into the Starting Rotation 4.20 to find out who we like and who can propel our lineups into the green tonight!

Starting Rotation 4.20

Note – I have to be honest, I don’t have a read on who’s going to be chalk here. I can build a case against a lot of pitchers to not play them in cash tonight, but some options will undoubtedly come in chalky. I’m going to write up the pitchers that I like and list what I think will happen, but we’ll let the projected ownership guide us.

Zac Gallen ($8,900 DK)

Reds Ranks vs Pitch Type – FB – 2nd CT – 4th CH – 11th CB – 11th

The pitch data does look fairly terrifying but it’s important to remember that’s just one data point. Gallen made his first start of the season and threw over 80 pitches, so 95 or more should be well in the range tonight. In that first start, he struck out eight hitters through four innings. That’s a fantastic sign, as is the 12.2% swinging strike rate which is virtually identical to last season. Taking last year into account, Gallen was also dead even to each side of the plate with a .282 wOBA to each and a K rate over 26% to each side as well. In his first start, his stuff looked as sharp as ever –

Zac Gallen, 95mph Fastball and 87mph Changeup, Overlay pic.twitter.com/B6vSsNi8ok
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 13, 2021

Gallen has sported a fly ball rate under 33% since the start of last season and the xFIP has not been over 3.62. Cincinnati is a dangerous offense but Gallen priced under $9,000 seems like a mistake. The loss of Nick Castellanos does wonders for Gallen’s outlook as well, especially since he’s the third-best fastball hitter on the Reds. Lastly, the Reds also strike out almost 24% of the time. When a pitcher can score 20 DK in just four innings, we have to be interested in any format. It does stink that he’s not on FD because he might be my most comfortable pick.

Cash & GPP Option

Taijuan Walker ($7,600 DK/$7,700 FD)

Cubs Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 22nd SL – 24th SF – 11th

The Chicago offense is coming around a little bit but Walker has started well and I think he can keep up the momentum. Not only has he changed his pitch mix, but he’s also picked up velocity across the board between 1-2 MPH. Walker is leaning less on the four-seam which has resulted in racking up more strikeouts with it this year and raise the whiff rate from 23.1% to 34.8%. The K rate has also jumped up from 22.2% to 29.3% and he’s yet to give up a home run. I think the most interesting facet of Walker’s newfound mix and velocity is the 12% swinging-strike rate, up from 7.8% in 2020. The Cubs are whiffing 27.1% of the time and seven regular hitters have a swinging strike rate over 11%.

The projected lineup splits right down the middle but it actually works in Walker’s favor. He’s striking out RHH 25.9% which is the lesser of his rates but the wOBA is lower a just .230. Likewise, LHH has the higher wOBA at .302 but Walker also strikes them out at a 35.7% rate. The FIP to each side is 2.77 or lower and the only real issue with this spot is the Cub’s offense is better than they’ve shown so far. They should continue to get right in some games but Walker is very cheap. His splitter really just disappears on hitters –

Taijuan Walker, Wicked 91mph Splitter. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/4wMN1MlI43
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 13, 2021

Cash and GPP and he might wind up being my favorite cash play on FD

Shohei Ohtani ($7,500 DK)

Rangers Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 15th SL – 20th SF – 16th

I’m not terribly interested over on FD since Ohtani will be limited to around 75 pitches. The price works far better on DK and I think he could be the chalky SP2 on name value alone, but I could still be wrong on that. It’s been over two weeks since Ohtani last took the mound and he had blister concerns, so he’s likely better off in GPP but this spot bristles with upside even at 75 pitches. Texas is striking out at a 30% clip against righty pitching so far this year and is average against the pitch mix.

The lefty-heavy lineup for Ohtani helps him to some extent. Over his career, the K rate is perfectly fine at 24.8% and he backs it up with a 0.36 HR/9 and a .268 wOBA. It’s a little difficult to gauge Ohtani just from one start but he only had a 4.3% barrel rate in that game. It should also be noted that his four-seam was blistering in the first start, averaging 98.1 MPH and last season saw it average 93.8 MPH. The splitter accounted for six of his eight strikeouts in that start and with that pitch not being used by many pitchers, it has a chance to do serious damage again here. When everything is working, well….our friend Ghost likes to say Good Night Jim Kite –

Shohei Ohtani, 101mph Fastball, 92mph Splitter and 80mph Breaking Ball, Overlay w/ Tails. pic.twitter.com/DWIH8SvG50
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 5, 2021

GPP and possibly cash

Corbin Burnes ($10,800 DK/$10,500 FD)

Padres Ranks vs Pitch Types – CT – 26th CH – 14th FB – 14th CB – 4th SL – 7th

Typically we start at the very top in salary but that’s not the case tonight in the Starting Rotation 4.20. It’s going to be a battle tonight and Burnes comes in with some of the best possible metrics in the majors. We’ll going to talk about the numbers but sometimes it’s best to just illustrate it –

That is pretty, pretty good. Burnes easily has the highest-ranked cutter in baseball and he’s 2.4 points above Marcus Stroman of the Mets. The K rate is is the second-best in baseball, 0.2% behind Jacob deGrom. The BABIP is .103, the FIP is 0.87 and the xFIP is 1.18. Burnes is even 14th in swinging-strike rate and there are no metrics on his side that wouldn’t lead us to play him. This is matchup-based more than anything else.

The Padres strike out the least of any team in the majors to righty pitching. They also rank no lower than eighth in OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ as a team. No hitter on the Padres has a FanGraphs rating over 0.8 against the cuter and that fascinates me. Granted, I wouldn’t spend this much on a cash play but if the field all takes other routes, we could get an elite pitcher in a phenomenal pitch data spot at low ownership. That cutter is just completely evil.

Corbin Burnes, Painting Outside the Lines.

98mph Cutter. pic.twitter.com/kTIacksJK7
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 14, 2021

GPP Only

Luis Castillo ($6,600 DK)

D-Backs Ranks vs Pitch Types – CH – 9th FB – 6th SL – 28th

There is simply no getting around it, 2021 has been atrocious for Castillo through three starts. The ERA is 7.04, the K rate is 17.9%, the velocity is down 2 MPH on the fastball/changeup combo he lives on…it’s just ugly all the way around. The one aspect that jumps out quickly is even though he’s not throwing it a lot, Castillo’s sinker is getting mauled for a .600 average, 1.267 slugging, .784 wOBA, and just an 8% whiff rate. For comparison, he gave up a .289 wOBA on the same pitch last year so I don’t think he should totally ditch it, but perhaps the 2 MPH drop is just leaving it more hittable.

Arizona is a bit scary based on the pitch type, but that might be a hair misleading. Eduardo Escobar leads the team and is 11th in the majors against that pitch. Past that, the next two are Andy Young (who isn’t a regular) and Ketel Marte who is still on the IL. The bottom line to me is Castillo is simply way too talented to be this cheap. He’s not going to continue to have a 47.9% strand rate, which is absurd. The other fear so far this season is a .396 wOBA to LHH along with the 3.00 HR/9 so I’d rather take the chance on him in GPP, but could see the field flocking at $6,600.

GPP, only cash if he’s projected to be overwhelming chalk

Tyler Anderson ($6,300 DK)

Tigers Ranks vs Pitch Types – CT – 30th FB – 18th CH – 13th

It’s always nice to see a team be 30th against the primary pitch type and that’s the case for Anderson tonight. It’s not been the best results for him so far but two games against the Cubs and one against the Padres don’t help the cause when you’re a southpaw. Throughout 111 plate appearances, Detroit is whiffing 30.6% of the time which is fourth-most in the league. They are also dead last in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. In honesty, this play could make sense in cash as the SP2 just by the metrics for the Tigers. As far as Anderson goes, the 20.9% K rate is fine for such a low price even though we typically hunt for higher. The barrel rate is also encouraging at just 6.1%, especially for who he’s faced so far.

We talked earlier about how Burnes has the best-rated cutter in baseball and Anderson is tied for seventh with Trevor Bauer of the Dodgers. That’s some pretty solid company to keep. His 13.7% swinging-strike rate is excellent as well for this salary and seven of the everyday players have a swinging strike rate over 11%. The .348 BABIP so far seems fairly high and Anderson was only at a .286 mark last year and .302 for his career, so we can expect some regression. Anderson sure looks like a pretty solid punt option tonight and one I’m very interested in.

GPP and possibly cash

Honorable Mention – FD is very difficult for Starting Rotation 4.20. We talked about Burnes, Hyun-Jin Ryu gets a Boston team that is wrecking the ball, Zack Wheeler has a K rate under 20% to LHH and should face at least five, Ohtani is on a pitch count and Eduardo Rodriguez gets the RHH-heavy Blue Jays. There are some serious issues with all of them. Perhaps Wheeler is seen as the safest of the group for cash but I wouldn’t use him otherwise myself. Maybe Chris Paddack picks up steam since the Brewers are without Christian Yelich but that’s another play I wouldn’t touch other than cash games.

Gas Can of the Slate – This isn’t just about chasing last time out for Patrick Corbin. No, every metric through 6.1 IP looks horrible for him. His K-BB rate is upside down by 2.5%, his WHIP is 3.00, the HR/9 is 5.68, the barrel rate is 20% and the swinging strike rate is under 10% for the first time since 2016. Everything is going poorly for him and the Cardinals are first in baseball in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ against lefties so far. They take the stage as the premier stack in Starting Rotation 4.20 for me.

There isn’t a pitch data standout on the St. Louis side but that might not matter all that much. With Corbin giving up a .656 wOBA and sporting just an 11.1% K rate to righties, the Cards set up incredibly well. The quintet of Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong, and Dylan Carlson all have a wOBA of at least .435 this season. DeJong and Nado have an ISO of at least .300 and Carlson sits at .444. Molina leads with 1.000, but he does have just nine plate appearances. The bottom line here is the Cards are cheap-ish with DeJong at $3,700 and Carlson at $3,100 (cash game staples anyone?) and it shouldn’t be an issue to play them with any pitcher you like.

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.20 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday – 04/18/2021

Jared Levitt 4 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

Welcome to the Sunday Funday version of Aces and Bases. We have an 8 game slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel.

Unlike past Sundays, today have some solid pitching that we can focus on. We have 2 aces priced as aces and 1 ace that’s well, not priced as an ace.

From a weather standpoint, today should be smooth sailing!

So pour yourself your favorite Sunday morning cocktail (bloody with old bay around the rim and some bacon strips as a “stirrer”) and let’s dig in to some today’s main slate on FanDuel!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Today’s first ace is Shane Bieber ($11.5k). Over the past two weeks Bieber has an unreal 40% k rate. While unsustainable, it is a pretty insane number. He had 23, yes 23 k’s over his last 2 starts. Bieber is one of the top young arms in the league and he’s been performing up to the task. While the Reds will most likely throw out 3 lefties in the top 5 today, none of them scare me off of Bieber.

Ace #2 – Gerrit Cole ($11k) vs. the Rays. I’ll be honest, I most likely will not go here today but he’s an ace and should always be in the convo when starting. Like Bieber, Cole also has an unreal K rate over the past 2 weeks. Almost 45%. Unsustainable, but extremely impressive. What has me off Cole today has nothing to do with Cole, but his team. The Yankees have really struggled against the Rays. And because of that, I’m worried about the coveted win.

Ace #3 – Freddy Peralta ($8.5k) vs. the Pirates. He’s my guy today. Over his last 2 starts he has 18 k’s. I should preface that with saying that it was against the Cubs who are a shell of their championship team from a few years ago. The expected lineup vs. Peralta today has a 23% k rate vs. righties. While that isn’t a crazy high number, Peralta’s discounted price from the other aces on the slate has me less concerned with it. Peralta is also really limiting hard contact. Over his past 2 starts he’s only and an 18.8% hard hit rate and a 37.5% soft hit rate. People just aren’t squaring him up.

One guy I didn’t write up that I also really like is Aaron Nola ($8.5k) vs. the Cardinals. Nola has elite stuff and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up as one of the top arms today.

MLB DFS: The Bases

The year was 2016. It was the NL Wild Card game. Mets vs. Giants. MadBum vs. Thor. I knew before the game started the Mets had no shot. Bumgarner was one of the top pitchers in the game. Add in the playoff atmosphere and he was even better. Flash forward to 2021 and we now lick our chops when he’s on the mound as he is always a top target to attack. He had a 5.79 xFIP over his last 2 starts with a 41% hard hit rate. I absolutely love the Washington Nationals today. Turner ($3.8k), Soto ($4.2k), and Bell ($3.1k) should all be in your lineup today.

Stack #2 – Kansas City Royals vs. Robbie Ray. This isn’t 100% safe. When Ray is on, he’s an elite arm. When he’s off, he’s off! While his first start didn’t look bad, his underlying metrics told a different story. His xFIP was 1.5 runs higher than his era said. None of the contact he gave up was soft. The royals expected lineup today has a .347 wOBA against lefties and only a 20% k rate. Love Merrifield ($3.9k), Soler ($2.7k), and Perez ($3.3k) if he plays.

Stack #3 – Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chad Kuhl. Kuhl has really struggled of late. In his last 2 starts he’s pitched to a, rubs eyes, an 8.42 xFIP. That’s just not gonna cut it. This Brewers lineup has the ability to put up a big number. In 2 of their last 3 games they’ve scored 6 and 7 runs. Bradley ($2.4K), Hiura ($2.5k), Shaw ($2.6k), and Garcia ($2.8k) are all very cheap and in great spots. Love the spot here.

MLB DFS Sunday Funday Summary

As with every Sunday slate, make sure to keep an extra eye on lineups. With it being getaway day, players (especially catchers) tend to get today as an extra day off.

Enjoy today’s slate. It has the makings of a really fun slate. Some really solid pitchers and some lineups in really great spots.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discordwhere we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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Starting Rotation 4.18

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

Starting Rotation 4.18

We get a nine-game slate today for Sunday baseball action and we have two of the best fantasy pitcher on the mound today! Days like this tend to make this article fairly simple and today won’t be much different. The targets are clear and there are even a couple of secondary pitchers that are going to fit nicely into the Starting Rotation 4.18!

Starting Rotation 4.18 – Cash

Shane Bieber ($10,000 DK/$11,500 FD)

Reds Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 2nd CB – 3rd SL – 12th

There are not many pitchers that I will have zero fear over and Bieber is absolutely one of them. He’s coming off nine innings against the White Sox in which he whiffed 11 hitters and racked up 43.3 DK points. If Cleveland had given him run support in time he would have flirted with 50 for a complete game shutout. For some incredible reason, DK decided to drop this man’s salary by $700. The Reds aren’t striking out a ton as a team at just 21.6% but Bieber is sixth in baseball at a 41.7% K rate.

Shane Bieber, Wicked 86mph Slider. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/CVNIt1lvjB
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 14, 2021

It was also encouraging to see Bieber only walk one batter last game after there and four in his first two starts. Only Jacob deGrom has a higher swinging strike rate than Bieber’s 20.3% rate and there’s just so little to pick on here. If there’s anything, I guess it would be Bieber has given up a higher wOBA to RHH but it’s only .270. The xFIP to that side of the plate is still 2.61 and Bieber seeing a price reduction is nonsensical. He’s my top option on the slate and I would think the field agrees.

Gerrit Cole ($10,400 DK/$11,000 FD)

Rays Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 8th SL – 30th CB – 17th CH – 7th

Another spot where the pitch data may not look fantastic outside of the slide but that’s not a deciding factor. Cole is right with Bieber at a 41.4% K rate and his HR/9 is down at 0.49 after ballooning to 1.73 last season, a career-high. Even the walk rate has come down a bit to 4.3% and so far, Cole hasn’t been bothered by the 52.6% fly-ball rate he’s displaying. It helps that the barrel rate is tiny at 2.6% and hitters aren’t making a ton of contact with a 16.8% swinging strike rate for Cole. Perhaps the best metric for Cole is the difference in lefty bats this year. In 2020, lefties started to do some damage with a .319 wOBA and a 2.70 HR/9. So far through 25 batters faced this year, the wOBA is .070 and he’s yet to give up a bomb to that side of the plate.

Gerrit Cole, Filthy 2 Pitch Sequence 89mph Slider (sword) and 98mph Fastball. pic.twitter.com/cGn2ouU5zW
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 12, 2021

What has been super interesting so far is the drop in four-seam usage for Cole. Last season it was at 52.8% and this year it’s at 43.2%. The changeup has been the pitch that he’s using a lot more than last year at 13.7%. Cole has yet to give up a hit with the change and has a .093 xWOBA on it. The 36.4% whiff rate is nothing to sneer at either. He may not throw it often but it’s the fourth-ranked changeup in the league so far this year among starters. About the only reason Bieber is my first option is he is cheaper on DK. I will have a lineup or two with both pitchers and it could yet be the cash route.

Pablo Lopez ($6,200 DK)

Giants Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 18th CH – 13th CT – 8th

If we can’t fit both aces comfortably, I believe Lopez slides directly into the SP2 position for DK. He’s bringing some serious salary relief to the table and I’m not worried about his last start. He was on the road against the Braves and Lopez has a career ERA over 6.00 on the road. Now he gets back to Miami and inherits quite the spot. First off, the Giants are second in K rate against righty pitching at 29.6% and only carry a .203 average, which is 25th. Lopez should have to face at least five lefty hitters today and he’s carrying a 25.9% K rate to that side of the plate. He’s struck out six of the 18 lefties he’s faced at home so far as well.

Every strikeout but one for Lopez has come from either the four-seam or the change so far and he’s not using the sinker as much either. That’s great news as it only recorded one strikeout last season through 94 pitches. Lopez has a 43.8% fly-ball rate to lefties but the home park helps take care of that. The Giants do have the best fly ball rate in the majors so far to righties but I’m not sweating one factor when Lopez has K upside under $6,500.

Starting Rotation 4.18 – GPP

Freddy Peralta ($9,500 DK/$8,500 FD)

Pirates Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 21st SL – 10th

Three of the top seven pitchers in K rate in 2021 are on this slate and the player that leads the pack is no Cole nor Bieber. It’s Freddy Peralta, who has been unreal to start the season. He and Corbin Burnes are the only players that have a K rate over 43% and Peralta sits at 47.1%. Now, he’s only GPP for a couple of reasons. First off, the duo of Cole and Bieber will carry the ownership just from name value alone. Secondly, Peralta is second among starters in walk rate at a ghastly 17.7%. Strikeout pitchers inherently can be a little wild but if you’re putting this many runners on base, one swing of the bat can ruin the day. The 100% strand rate won’t stand either.

What I like about Peralta is the fact he’s leaning more into his slider and backing off the four-seam a bit. Regardless of how electric a fastball is, major league hitters are going to tee it up if you’re throwing it 73.5% of the time like Peralta did last season. His slider has accumulated 14 of his 24 strikeouts, has a .121 xwOBA, and a 60% whiff rate. It shows up in the FanGraphs rating too as Peralta’s is third among starters.

Freddy Peralta, Vicious 81mph Slider. 😨 pic.twitter.com/fcqtOkmPcZ
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 13, 2021

With the Pirates striking out 24% of the time so far, this is a spot that Peralta could potentially match Cole and Bieber for fantasy points. I don’t think it’s likely but if Peralta can score 5-10 more DK at a fraction of the ownership, that’s how you jump thousands in the standings in GPP.

Honorable Mention – John Means, Aaron Nola but I am very focused on these four pitchers. When we have three massive strikeout options and a great salary-saving option in Lopez, I’m having a very hard time deviating from these four pitchers.

Gas Can of the Slate – Well, it’s Madison Bumgarner day and he gets another terrible spot. The Nationals have smashed lefty pitching for multiple seasons and lead the league in average so far. They back that up with top-eight marks in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ as well. MadBum is not fooling anyone with a 1.98 HR/9, 11% walk rate, 2.20 WHIP, and an ERA over 11.00 backed up by a 6.22 FIP. The scary part is he’s only giving up a 4.3% barrel rate after 14.9% last year. If that starts to go the other way, lookout.

Bumgarner is relying on a four-seam and cutter almost 80% of the time and Juan Soto, Josh Harrison, Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman, Josh Bell, and Victor Robles are all positive against the four-seam. Both pitches have an xwOBA over .400 and this spot is crazy dangerous. Turner sits at a wOBA over .600 with a .467 ISO, Zimmerman is at a .382 wOBA and even Soto is at a .375 ISO. There’s honestly not a hitter I wouldn’t consider here.

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.18 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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Starting Rotation 4.17

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

Starting Rotation 4.17

Saturday brings us the normal split slate and FD woke up and chose violence on the early slate. It’s more or less unplayable at just three games even though they had other games to choose from in the window of start times within the three games. With that said, we’re going to just do some notes for the Early slate and then break down the night slate. DK has the Early at six games and the evening is five so they’re pretty close. We may as well make the full breakdown worth it for as many folks as possible in Starting Rotation 4.17 and try to find those green screens!

Note – This version is going to be slightly compressed due to some travel overnight. I’ll be around in Discord to expand on anything needed and set cores and answer questions through the day!

Starting Rotation – Early

Pitchers Of Interest

Sonny Gray – I’m a little skittish on Gray making his season debut, but with the news he won’t be faced with a pitch count, it does calm the fears a little bit. Gray inherits a pretty nice spot as well. Cleveland is no higher than 16th against the fastball/curve mix that made up roughly 75% of his repertoire in 2020. His fastball was split at about 25% of the four-seam and 25% of the sinker variety. Cleveland is also striking out at the fifth-highest rate in baseball to righty pitching at 28.6%. Only the Cubs have a lower wOBA and OPS so far as well. Gray has boasted a K rate of at least 29% 231.1 IP so on a slate where the pitching isn’t spectacular, I’m willing to go here in cash. We’ll see if projected ownership reflects the same.

Cash Option

Steven Matz – I’m going to steal my write-up from yesterday since it’s the exact same matchup after a postponement –

I’m not in love with the salaries because I’m not sure Matz has the ceiling to go with it. Still, he’s been excellent so far this year and he even navigated the Angels lineup, which can hit lefties some nights (although not that night when I played him). I’ll go back to him here as his sinker has been his go-to pitch so far. It’s only allowed a .107 average, .285 xwOBA, and a .285 xSLG to this point with eight of the 13 strikeouts. Kansas City has a strong rating against fastballs, but they are very top-heavy. Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez, and Michael A. Taylor are the only ones with a 1.0 rating or higher. The other great metric in Matz’s favor is his ground ball rate.

If we’re not totally sold on the strikeout upside, we need ground outs and Matz is at a 55.2% rate so far. It just so happens that the leading ground ball team to lefty pitching are these Royals, which is fantastic news for Matz. They only whiff about 21% of the time. The biggest concern is likely the 19.4% K rate to RHH for Matz so far since the Royals are very righty-heavy in their lineup. It’s the main reason I won’t go there in cash but Matz has upside potential even if the path is a little less clear.

GPP Option

Casey Mize – So, a little about me. I’m a sucker for young pitchers with pedigree. I’m willing to give them chance after chance, regardless of it working to not. Mike absolutely falls under that category at just 23 years old and a former first-overall pick. Realistically, Mize has 39.1 IP at the major league level so he’s still quite the mystery. So far through 11 IP, we’ve seen some encouraging signs. The K rate hasn’t moved at 19.6% but the walk rate is down to 8.7% and the WHIP is down from 1.48 to 1.18.

His ground ball rate has taken a massive leap from 38.6% to 62.5%. It is a touch concerning to see a 6.4% swinging-strike rate, which is very low. Mize does throw a four-seam or sinker 45% of the time and Oakland is 26th against fastballs. There should be five righties in the lineup and they only have a .234 wOBA so far along with an 80% (!) ground ball rate. Mize is anything but safe but there’s an upside at the salary of under $7,000.

GPP Option

Huascar Ynoa – Atlanta couldn’t have asked for much more from Ynoa to start the season. Through 12 IP, he’s rocking a 2.15 xFIP, 34.9% K rate, 4.7% walk rate, and a 57.7% ground ball rate. The Cubs have long been an offense to fear and maybe they get there at some point this season but that hasn’t been the case at all this season. Against righty pitching, the Cubs are dead last in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. As if that somehow weren’t enough, they have the highest K rate of any team at 30% even. Ynoa’s price tag is still under $7,000 and feels like a total bargain on the early slate. I could be misreading but I think he’ll be chalky.

Cash Option

Starting Rotation – Late

I’m going to approach this a little bit differently today. We have some big names on the night slate including Clayton Kershaw, Yu Darvish, and Zack Greinke before a fairly steep drop-off. I’m going to do a quicker breakdown of why those three could be in some dangerous spots and/or just not worth the price and then talk about who I like as well.

Kershaw – Most nights, Kershaw is going to be a primary option, especially when there are only 10 pitchers to choose from. Maybe he still rolls in as the highest-owned pitcher on the slate but the matchup is quite difficult. San Diego missed star Fernando Tatis for most of the year so far and still ranks sixth in average, fifth in OBP, seventh in OPS, sixth in wOBA, and seventh in wRC+. Kershaw looks outstanding in the metrics for the most part with no home runs given up, a 1.3% walk rate, and a fly ball rate under 31%. The largest concern at a five-digit salary is a K rate that’s barely over 21%.

The Friars have six hitters with a wOBA of at least .397 this year and Tatis isn’t even one of them at this point. Granted, three of those hitters are LHH in Trent Grisham, Eric Hosmer, and Jake Cronenworth but that’s still a concern. Kershaw is giving up a .320 wOBA to RHH with a 1.46 WHIP to the right side of the plate, which includes Tatis, Manny Machado, and Wil Meyers. Myers also happens to be the third-highest rated slider hitter in baseball, which is the primary pitch for Kershaw. This start could deteriorate and Kershaw could be way overblown for his price tag.

Darvish – It’s not going to be often we use pitchers against the Dodgers, either. LA is whiffing at a 19.6% rate to righty pitching which is the second-lowest rate in baseball…next to the Padres. Perhaps my largest concerns with Darvish tonight are the 2.53 HR/9 to lefties he has right now with the 5.10 FIP to the side of the plate. That’s not what you’re looking for against the Dodgers, nor do you want a fly ball rate over 45% to each side of the plate. The K rate is also down 4% to 27.1% which is still very solid but not as spectacular as last year. We also have to note that the barrel rate is 10.6% and it’s never been above 9% in his career. To top it off, the swinging strike rate and CSW are also both down about 3%. This isn’t really the spot that screams to play Darvish at his usual salary.

Greinke – The field could just turn to Greinke but can the man strike anyone out? His K rate is all the way down to 13.1% on the season with a 5.63 FIP. If you just took the name away there’s no reason you would want to play him, even against the Seattle lineup. Greinke is also getting taken out of the yard at a 2.04 HR/9 which can ruin a day in a hurry if there’s no strikeout upside. His velocity hasn’t been anything special for about three years and it continues to be 88 MPH for the fastball. I know that he’s got a full arsenal but it’s just not easy to survive with 88 MPH “heat”. The swinging strike rate has bumped down from 10.6% to 7.8% and the CSW is 27.2%. Seattle’s offense is top-eight in wOBA, ISO, OPS, and slugging to righty pitching so far.

Alright, so we’ve outlined why all three of the top starters could fail tonight and why there are legitimate fears. Last I looked, we still need to roster two pitchers on DK so where are we going? Well, I’m very likely to eschew cash tonight and just go GPP. Having said that, let’s rundown the targets.

Dane Dunning – So remember when I said I’m willing to take chances with young pitchers with some pedigree? Dunning is pushing the boundaries of that at 26 but he is a former first-round pick and only has 43 IP in the bigs. Through his first nine this year, he’s posting some serious metrics. The K rate is 32.4% with a walk rate of 5.9% to go with it. At least at the start of the season, his sinker has been the biggest reason. He’s throwing it 66% of the time compared to 39.4% last year and it’s recorded eight of his 11 strikeouts so far.

It does concern me slightly that his sinker doesn’t look any different than last year. It’s the same velocity and the movement is within two inches in either direction. Baltimore is top 12 against fastballs but they also have the fourth-highest K rate to righty pitching so far at 28.7%. Dunning could be faced with five lefties and that could be a boon for him. He’s controlled the left side of the plate to the tune of a 26.7% K rate, 1.30 FIP, and a .169 wOBA. For the price, he really fits into a high-upside category.

I‘m really only looking toward one other pitcher on this slate and it’s Chris Flexen. Some may turn to Matt Shoemaker but he continues to feature frightening metrics under the surface like an 18.8% barrel rate and a FIP over 5.00. Flexen, on the other hand, has had one good start and one poor, and the poor one came against Minnesota so it’s understandable. The Astros offense is still one I’m interested to pick on while they are short-handed. The curveball has been one of his better strikeout pitches with four and has only allowed a .149 wOBA and a 44.4% whiff rate. The Astros rank 22nd against that particular pitch.

Flexen has been a hair better to LHH so far with a 2.50 FIP and a 25% K rate and he should face up to five tonight. The ground ball rate is also higher to lefties at 46.7% so that helps as well. My strategy for tonight is to enter a 3-max GPP and attack pitching in three ways. The first is to just spend as little as possible, with Flexen and Dunning and build higher-end stacks. After that, I’m looking to pair one of Dunning or Flexen with one of Kershaw or Darvish. Just because I have concerns doesn’t mean a pitcher’s duel can’t break out tonight and in a three max, I want exposure. It’s a tough slate pitching-wise so be smart and let’s ride!

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.17 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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Starting Rotation 4.16

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

Starting Rotation 4.16

It is a monster baseball slate tonight with 28 teams in action, so there are plenty of pitching options tonight! The biggest question is how many are solid options that we want to utilize. There are plenty of big names to choose from but they may not be the best options on the table so let’s dig into Starting Rotation 4.16!

Starting Rotation 4.16 – Cash Targets

Note – Once again, I’m not going to dig too deeply into Jacob deGrom. The weather in Colorado is calling for snow during the game so I’m not sure if it gets played at all and I doubt that deGrom would be popular at all. If the game is clear, I’d not hesitate at all to pitch him. We already saw Trevor Bauer record 10 strikeouts in Coors. deGrom at potentially low ownership would be fascinating and I’m hoping the game plays. Colorado whiffs about 21.1% at home against RHP so far in 161 plate appearances.

Max Scherzer ($10,400 DK/$10,400 FD)

D-Backs Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 3rd SL – 29th CH – 15th CT – 9th

Truth be told, I’m not sure what to do with Scherzer based on his two starts. His velocity is down across the board and teams are getting the barrel to the ball at a 20.7% rate. For context, Scherzer has never had a barrel rate over 8.4% in his career and his hard-hit rate has followed at 44.8%. When it’s coupled with a 62.1% fly-ball rate, it’s not hard to see why the HR/9 is spiked at 3.00. That isn’t to say Scherzer is a trash pitcher now, but his K rate has been at about 31% since the start of last year. The FIP of 5.39 isn’t exactly comforting either although the FIP is 3.65. He just may not be as dominant as we’ve been spoiled to see for many years with so many miles on that arm. Also, it’s not like he still doesn’t have some evil pitches –

Max Scherzer, Unfair 90mph Dead Zone Cutter. ☠️✂️ pic.twitter.com/MaeYIPu0Sd
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 11, 2021

Arizona also isn’t striking out a ton so far at 23.8% but they are also hitting under .220 as a team. I believe there’s an upside to be had if Scherzer’s fastball can survive. He’s only given up a .125 average but the xSLG is .798 and the xWOBA is .434. The whiff rate is down to 23.1% which is 5% lower than last year as well. Also concerning is the put-away rate from 2020 was 23.5% and this year is 11.8%. If the velocity comes back he could go Vintage Scherzer in a heartbeat. Assuming he’s the chalk, I’m in without question and we can evaluate after this start with how he looks.

Anthony DeSclafani ($8,100 DK/$8,200 FD)

Marlins Ranks vs Pitch Types – SL – 19th FB – 25th CB – 4th CH – 28th

Do I totally buy into DeSclafani after just two starts? Not exactly, but this is a good spot to keep some positive momentum going. Miami is in the bottom-five in park factor so far this season and the Marlins offense can be had. They are ninth in K rate to RHP at 26.5% and 22nd in wOBA so far this year. DeSclafani is using relatively the same pitch mix as last year but the biggest change is the curve at a 5% higher rate. Seven of his 12 strikeouts have come off that particular pitch and it’s generated a 47.1% whiff rate. He hasn’t been throwing it a ton to RHH and there are six projected for Miami’s lineup. Even still the swinging strike rate jumping from 9.6% to 14.4% is eye-opening and the CSW is up to 26.1%. If you ever wanted to understand why hitters swing at curves, check this out –

Anthony DeSclafani, Filthy 83mph Curveball (home plate view). 🐐 camera angle. pic.twitter.com/Ldv2SPdJnf
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 11, 2021

DeSclafani’s righty splits are being dragged down a touch by his walk rate over 13% to that side. Still, the OBP is only .318 which is not that bad for how high that walk rate is. The 42.9% fly-ball rate to that side of the plate should be muted by the park and he is still whiffing the righties at a 22.7% rate. He obviously won’t hold a 0.82 ERA but the xFIP is 3.46 and the FIP is 2.05. With the Marlins ranking in the bottom half of the league against the two main pitches and the curve being a great K pitch, DeSclafani makes plenty of sense tonight.

Yusei Kikuchi ($7,200 DK/$8,800 FD)

Astros Ranks vs Pitch Types – CT – 11th FB – 2nd SL – 1st

The pitch data looks terrifying and we almost always go with Astros hitters against lefty pitching but that’s not the case tonight. Not only does Houston go out on the road but Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Jordan Alvarez, and Martin Maldonado are all out of the lineup. That’s a massive hit to the lineup and if Kikuchi can keep up his start to the season, he may cut through this lineup like a knife through butter. He’s been touching 97 MPH regularly with his fastball this year –

Yusei Kikuchi, Overpowering 97mph Fastball. ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/KXThIkNUzF
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 10, 2021

Kikuchi has a 32.7% K rate so far and his CSW has jumped to almost 32%. He’s throwing his cutter the most of any pitch and it’s ranked 10th among starters so far this season. The only remaining hitter that has a positive cutter rating is Kyle Tucker and he’s only sporting a .200 wOBA to lefties so far this season. The two scariest hitters left are Carlos Correa and Yuli Gurriel (who leads the league in fastball rating and has a .553 wOBA and .263 ISO. Hello one-off hitter) and that’s not enough to avoid Kikuchi. I’m not going to hold the last start against him all that much because the Twins are built to smack lefties. The Astros are as well…when they’re healthy. I’ll be very interested to see who the field flocks to on DK as their SP2 tonight.

Honorable Mention – deGrom, Walker Beuhler

Starting Rotation 4.16 – GPP Targets

Steven Matz ($9,300 DK/$9,800 FD)

Royals Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 7th CH – 19th CB – 13th SL – 25th

JT Brubaker ($7,500 DK)

Brewers Ranks vs Pitch Types – SL – 28th FB – 10th CB – 27th CH – 11th

This might seem like an oddball pick at first glance but digging in, Brubaker looks like a great option. The Brewers are struggling badly offensively right now, ranking no higher than 22nd in average, OBP, OPS, slugging, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. On top of that, the K rate is an even 25%. That’s already a nice checkmark for Brubaker. The CSW is respectable at 28.2% and the swinging strike rate is also solid at 10.9%. Brubaker has also kept the hard contact down at 24% while the Brewers sit 28th in that category. His slider is the key, as it has six of his 10 strikeouts and a 32% whiff rate. What is really encouraging is the splits because he has owned lefties thus far.

That side of the plate is hitting for a .167 average, .227 wOBA, and a 2.95 FIP. The K rate is stagnant at 23.8% for each side and the Brewers projected lineup has five lefties with the pitcher spot on top of it. Of those lefties, Christian Yelich has a 0.7 rating and Omar Narvaez has a 0.2 rating against the slider. Every other lefty is in the negatives in FanGraphs rating. He’s averaging a little over 16 fantasy points despite only pitching four and 5.1 innings in each start. If he can go a little deeper than 82 or 72 pitches, he could be a very cheap 20 DK points. It could help his cause to go deep into the game since the Pirates only got 3.1 innings out of their starter yesterday. I would only use him as an SP2 on DK and skip him on FD.

Honorable Mention – Adrian Houser, Mike Foltynewicz in MME formats

Gas Can of the Slate – If it plays, the Mets are in Coors Field against a pitcher who has given up a .346 wOBA to LHH over his career and only strikes them out 14% of the time. New York has Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, and Jeff McNeil at $4,200 or less on DK. Add in Francisco Lindor or Pete Alonso and away you go.

Let’s talk about a less obvious spot. Well, it’s probably still fairly obvious but I digress. The Rangers are drawing one of the weakest pitchers on the slate in Baltimore’s Jorge Lopez. He’s allowing a barrel rate over 11% and a hard hit rate over 44%, to go along with a 3.12 HR/9. Lopez also is getting crushed by lefties with a .300 average, 1.062 OPS, .459 wOBA, and a 7.7% K rate. Friends, if you’re not going to miss Joey Gallo’s bat you’re going to have a hard time. There should be at least 4-5 lefties in the lineup and in honesty, the .388 wOBA to righties isn’t anything to write home about for Lopez either.

Gallo, Nate Lowe, Jose Trevino, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are all over a .335 wOBA and Gallo is super fascinating. This is a hitter with a career .282 ISO against righty pitching and so far this season, he’s at .000. That’s not a typo. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that won’t stick forever. Even Adolis Garcia is well in play, as he’s been hitting clean-up and he’s just $2,700. I’ll make a home run call early and say Gallo leaves the yard tonight as a centerpiece to a Texas stack.

Starting Rotation 4.16 Betting Section

Free Bet

Record – 9-8

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.16 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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Starting Rotation 4.15

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

Starting Rotation 4.15

Thursday brings us a split slate and we’re going to change things up just a bit. In this article, the focus is going to be on the early slate since it has six games and the evening has five. On top of that, the evening pitching is among the worst we’ve had this season. It’s a fairly hideous mix so let’s stick with the full breakdown for early in the Starting Rotation 4.15 and attack the late slate with some picks!

Starting Rotation 4.15 – Early Targets

Note – FD has inexcusably left off the Mets game that starts at 12:10. Apparently, those 10 minutes between the 12:20 start time left the Mets game in an alternate dimension like when Ozzie Smith was in The Simpsons. The bad news is they also left off the Seattle game which at least in fairness is a seven-inning game. It’s only a four-game slate on FD but at least you only need one pitcher.

Since the Mets and Jacob deGrom are not on both sites (and are already being threatened by rain), we won’t go over him in the cash section. On DK, deGrom is a lock if that game plays for cash. It’s not a discussion and he easily carries the highest ceiling of the slate as well. We know deGrom is one of the best three pitchers on the planet, don’t overthink it for cash.

Starting Rotation 4.15

Lance Lynn ($9,400 DK/$10,200 FD)

Indians Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 19th CT – 17th

Lynn is such an interesting pitcher. He literally throws three variations of the fastball and… that’s it, that’s the list. It seems crazy that a 33-year old who tops out at about 94 MPH goes out and shoves every fifth day but here we are. Cleveland has been whiffing a lot against righty pitching, sitting at 26.1% so far. They are also under league average against the fastballs Lynn throws so that’s a checkmark for him. It’s another check mark for him that he’s sporting his highest K rate in his career at 31.5%. Sure, that likely comes down some but it’s still great to see in the early going. His swinging-strike rate is up 2.6% and that’s followed by a 2% increase in his CSW. Keep giving the Dad Bod Crowd a hero, Mr. Lynn.

Lance Lynn, 96mph ⛽️ and K Strut. pic.twitter.com/7MtD3gGDtP
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 8, 2021

The other big metric that attracts me to Lynn is the fact he’s owned the left side of the plate since the start of last season. In 2020, lefties only had a .182 average and .239 wOBA to go with a 1.06 HR/9. This season, those numbers are even lower at .143, .127, and 0.00. Surely they will creep up a little but Cleveland should roll out 5-6 lefties today and they just got no-hit. Lynn utilizes the four-seam to LHH the most with 41 of 74 pitches thrown so far. He’s generated a 35.1% whiff rate and has 10 strikeouts on it. Eddie Rosario and Jose Ramirez are the only lefties that rate well against the fastball and Lynn has plenty of safety and potential upside today.

Ian Anderson ($8,000 DK/$8,600 FD)

Marlins Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 24th CH – 28th CB – 2nd

In a perfect world, I would prefer to save Anderson for GPP. Brian and I joke about how much I love him and I think he is super talented, but 42.2 IP with a 9.4% walk rate doesn’t make you a cash play. The reasons Anderson still ranks as a cash play today are because we may not have access to deGrom and even if we do, pairing deGrom and Lynn in cash is pricey. This looks like a fairly elite spot for pitch data since Anderson is leaning on the fastball/change combo about 75% of the time. His change is nasty, already ranked as the sixth-best in FanGraphs ratings among starters. The 38.7% whiff rate is nice to see and that pitch and the curve are carrying his swinging strike rate of 11.3%.

Now, the bad news (and a reason I’m not thrilled to have him in cash) is his fastball is getting smacked through two starts. Teams have hit it for a .333 average, .480 wOBA, and a .509 xwOBA. If he doesn’t get that under control, it’s going to be an issue. Last year the fastball had a .179 average and .240 xwOBA over 147 pitches. That’s going to be a big key in this start and the velocity is identical, so that’s not an issue. If the fastball is working, the combo with changeup is lethal.

Ian Anderson, 96mph Fastball (foul) and 89mph Changeup (swinging K), Overlay. pic.twitter.com/Q6CeWv8jDV
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 24, 2021

The other aspect to note is his horizontal movement has lost about 3.5 inches this year so it’s possible without the same movement, hitters are tracking it better. Anderson still sports a 31% K rate overall so I don’t want to be super harsh, but it’s a small concern headed into this start. I’m still happy to play him against a Marlins offense that whiffed nine times against Charlie Morton and has a 25.9% K rate to RHP on the season.

Honorable Mention – I don’t see any past those three I trust to play as this slate is tough for pitchers as well. Let’s hit some cliff notes for why I have some unease with other options.

Zach Eflin – faces the same weather concerns that deGrom has and only has a 20% K rate.

Chris Paddack – The righty is barely reputation at this point and on the road, so that’s a hard sell at that price. I actually don’t mind some cheap Bucco bats like Phillip Evans and Colin Moran to get some bigger bats in the lineup.

Mitch Keller – He’s still throwing the fastball about 50% of the time so far and the Padres have three hitters (Eric Hosmer, Jake Cronenworth, and Wil Meyers) inside the top 45 in fastball ranks. Perhaps if they throw out a getaway day lineup, you could talk me into Keller since he does feature a 30.6% K rate thus far. Even then, the Friars are 29th in K rate to righty pitching so we’d need a poor lineup.

Aaron Civale – Hard contact, fly-ball rate, HR/9, and his FIP are all up from last year combined with a lower K rate and CSW rate. That’s not exactly what I’m looking for against the White Sox.

Trevor Rogers – Like Keller, I could see attacking a potentially weaker Braves lineup if they roll that one out. Rogers has been whiffing everyone early, sitting at 40% for his K rate through 10 IP. The walk rate is insane at 15% and the fly ball rate is worrisome at 47.1% but his fastball has been insane so far. It’s up to 95 MPH, a bump of 2 MPH from 2020, and has 12 of his 16 strikeouts. It’s also generating a 51.1% whiff rate and he’s tied with Gerrit Cole in FanGraphs rating on that pitch, ninth in the majors. He has held righties to a .183 wOBA so far so he’s definitely the wild card of the early slate. Atlanta was average in ISO and wOBA last year to LHP and have a K rate over 32% this year, albeit on 49 plate appearances. The fastball has some kind of life and Atlanta is currently 30th against that pitch –

Trevor Rogers:
6 IP
3 H
2 BB
0 R
🔥10 K 🔥 pic.twitter.com/vJS6Ft1RvG
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) April 10, 2021

Gas Can of the Slate – The Red Sox will be putting Garrett Richards on the mound and it’s hard to see that ending well for him. He’s gotten crushed through seven IP so far and the RHH have a 3.86 HR/9, .499 wOBA, and 3.00 WHIP against him. Lefties as well have gotten to him for a .401 wOBA and the Twins lineup looks dangerous. It would be nice to have Byron Buxton back after a hammy tweak yesterday, as he and Nelson Cruz both have wOBA’s over .500 and ISO’s over .550 so far. They also are the best fastball/slider hitters on the team, which Richards is using almost 85% of the time.

Past those two, we can round it out with Luis Arrez and Max Kepler, Both hitters drop a bit against the pitch mix, but they also have at least a .190 ISO and a .350 wOBA against righties. With Richards looking like a gas can to this point, Minnesota looks appealing as things stand. They did play two yesterday, so the lineup is very important here.

Starting Rotation 4.15 – Late Targets

So this slate will be strictly GPP for me. Like yesterday’s early slate, we have enough games but Dk especially the pitching is some kind of scary. I’m not willing to wade into cash games when I’m just trying to avoid the grenades that lurk around every corner here.

Fun fact, no pitcher outside of Julio Urias averages over 13.1 DK points on the night slate. That’s not a great start and I would assume pushes Urias to chalky status. He is similar to Anderson in that his fastball has gotten mashed so far, giving up a .409 average, .517 xwOBA, .788 xSLG, and just a 17.6% whiff rate. When you’re throwing that pitch 50% of the time, there is serious danger at this salary. The Rockies are only striking out 22.6% of the time to lefties through 133 plate appearances which are eighth-most so far. Urias is holding RHH to a .221 wOBA but this spot is not that great, especially for an 18% K rate at a five-digit salary. Urias has also scuffled with LHH through 13 hitters (very small sample noted) so don’t be afraid of Charlie Blackmon in GPP. He held a .398 wOBA last year to LHP.

So it’s pretty clear that I’m not a fan of Urias tonight, but I still need two pitchers on DK. I’m looking at Rich Hill and there’s not a question about it, I am ready for him to ruin me again. Hill is spectacularly up and down in my personal experience but this is an elite spot for him. Coming off six shutout innings against the Yankees have left him expensive, but it kind of is what it is on this slate. The 41-year old lefty features a fastball/curve combo over 85% of the time and Texas is 29th against the curve. This is a couple of seasons old now, but illustrates how evil Hill’s curve is capable of being –

Rich Hill, Wicked 75mph Curveball. 🤢🍆🏔️ pic.twitter.com/fMGWsTyLO1
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 23, 2019

That’s a good thing because Hill has 10 of his strikeouts with the fastball, so I’d like the Rangers to be worse to his “secondary” pitch. Hill has a 7.20 ERA but the xERA is 2.81 and the xFIP is 3.65. The K rate is very solid at 27.5% with a 33.8% CSW. What really interests me is the 25th ranked ISO for the Rangers coupled with a 29.6% K rate. Hill can get smacked any given start, but this one lines up as one he can hang 20 DK.

So who do we find for our SP2? Well, you’re not going to like the answer. I will almost never attack this team but Jakob Junis might make some sense against the Blue Jays. Before Ghost throws something at me from North of the border, hear me out. Junis only has one start but he’s added a cutter this season. So far, he’s struck out six of his nine hitters with it and it’s carrying a .251 xwOBA. He’s only throwing it 23.9% of the time but he’s using his four-seam 13% more often this year at 59.1%.

Something to monitor: #Royals Jakob Junis has added a cutter to his arsenal

He is throwing it 23.9% of the time

Sample size is not nearly large enough but he has had early success with it & maybe he's a good early season streamer while hitters adapt.

Worth monitoring. pic.twitter.com/jvpa4orx0s
— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) April 10, 2021

The 36% K rate is not here to stay since he only has a 20.9% K rate for his career but the 57.1% ground ball rate is eye-opening. Junis has yet to give up a barrel, which is impressive through seven IP. Both the swinging strike rate and CSW are up 3-4% and the Jays do whiff over 25% of the time. They are also bottom-five to the cutter and bottom 10 to the four-seam. A Hill and Junis combo, what could possibly go wrong for the night slate in Starting Rotation 4.15??

Starting Rotation 4.15 Betting Section

Free Bet

Record – 9-8

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.15 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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Starting Rotation 4.14

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

Starting Rotation 4.14

We’re back with a split slate on Wednesday with five and seven games in front of us. It shouldn’t come as a big surprise, but the pitching on today’s slate is….not great. The early slate especially looks a little rough but let’s talk about both in the Starting Rotation 4.14 and figure out who we need to target for the green screens!

Starting Rotation 4.14 – Early Slate

There’s not much of a discussion in my eyes about who’s the lock on the five-game slate and it’s Corbin Burnes. His cutter continues to do the heavy lifting with a 33.3% whiff rate even though Burnes is throwing it about half the time. It’s the highest-rated cutter in the league via FanGraphs rating and even though Chicago is 12th against the pitch, Burnes is just nasty. The Cubs are flirting with a 30% K rate as a team and Burnes is at a 48.8% K rate through 12.1 IP and a massive 37.6% CSW. This cutter is just silly good –

Corbin Burnes, Beautiful 97mph Back Door Cutter. ✂️

One of my favorite pitches in the game. pic.twitter.com/WtQ62xv97L
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 8, 2021

I only really “like” two other options. The first is Jake Arrieta and we all know that I don’t love playing him. In honesty, it’s kind of a scary spot for him. He’s got a bit of a weakness to the left side of the plate with a .329 wOBA and a .300 average. Now, he does strike them out at a 24.2% rate but Milwaukee should feature five lefties. There’s virtually no upside at the price either. The Brewers offense hasn’t done a lot and only has the 27th ranked wOBA to righty pitching. I’d like to see the ownership before deciding on Arrieta.

The other pitcher that might be worth playing is Nathan Eovaldi. Minnesota is a very tough spot as they sport a top 10 mark in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. They also smash some fastballs at a top 10 rate and Eovaldi throws a four-seam, split-finger, and cutter almost 65% of the time. Eovaldi does have a 31.7% CSW and a 63.3% ground ball rate to go with a 16.7% hard-hit rate. At the price, we don’t need a ton and I’d rather go after the Twins offense than the Red Sox with Kenta Maeda (who is wildly cheap in his own right), though neither sounds that fun.

The Red Sox strike out at a much lower rate (22.7%), are number one in ISO, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, and average against righties. Yikes. As I said, neither matchup is a walk in the park and you’re hoping either pitcher didn’t get blown up. I’ll slightly lean Eovaldi and I honestly will likely avoid cash on this slate. There are enough games but the pitching is dreadful. I plan on playing lighter and likely just in GPP.

Starting Rotation 4.14 – Cash Picks

Dustin May ($9,400 DK/$9,000 FD)

Rockies Ranks vs Pitch Type – FB – 16th CT – 23rd CB – 7th

It won’t come as a surprise but I’m back to attacking the Rockies outside of Coors Field. May was superlative in his first start and I do think he could be a little overpriced, but for this slate, he’s one of the safest candidates out there. May’s largest issue in the past has been not enough strikeouts as his career K rate is just 21.6% through 90.2 IP. That was different in his first start and his cutter was one of the main reasons. It whiffed five of the eight A’s that night and it was moving a lot more than last year. In 2020, it was at 23.8 inches of drop, and this year it was at 26 inches. He also added some drop onto the curveball and everything clicked for him. I mean, what are you supposed to do with this?

Dustin May, Wiffle Ball Two Seamer (with tail) pic.twitter.com/7X1BvWFOKy
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 31, 2021

Do I fully trust him to do it again? Not exactly, but the spot is fantastic and May has always had some serious like on his pitches. Seeing the CSW jump from 26.3% to 32.9% and the swinging strike rate go from 8.4% to 17.6% is super exciting, even if it is just one start so far. This kid is still only 23 years old and his first 90 innings might just have been learning the ropes. May also generated a 61.5% ground ball rate in that first start so there’s a ton to be excited about here. On a slate where there’s not a ton of trust to go around, he checks in as my number one play.

Charlie Morton ($7,600 DK/$8,500 FD)

Marlins Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 26th CB – 4th CT – 8th

Alright, after Max Fried got wrecked last night let’s try this again. The crafty veteran Charlie Morton toes the rubber tonight and is in a little better spot simply because he throws the ball right-handed. Miami is striking out over 26% against righties and Morton has a 26.7% K rate through two starts. His four-seam/curve combo has done the job with a 41.7% whiff rate or higher so far to rack up 10 of his 12 strikeouts. The swinging strike rate is down a hair at 11.7% but the CSW is up 34.4% so Morton still looks quite dangerous. Morton’s velocity is up slightly too to 94 MPH on the four-seam, which is a great sign coming off only 33 IP last season.

For him to succeed, Morton needs to generate ground balls and he has at a 50% rate and he’s at his best when holding RHH to very little. So far, he’s held both sides of the plate to a wOBA of .270 or lower and the righties are at a 2.02 xFIP. Morton is also sporting an xFIP/FIP combo of 2.85 or lower so he’s been a little unlucky so far with a 3.27 ERA. Teams won’t continue to have a .345 BABIP against Morton and he’s too cheap for the spot against a lineup that should feature just two lefties.

Starting Rotation 4.14 – GPP Picks

Lance McCullers ($9,900 DK/$9,500 FD)

Tigers Ranks vs Pitch Types – SL – 15th FB – 12th CB – 24th

McCullers is a pitcher that could wind up chalky but I’m never going to feel great about it. I believe last game he was between 50-60% in cash settings and he didn’t clear 18 DK points. I like McCullers but I will always feel more comfortable with him in GPP. We do have to talk about him adding a slider this year, which has done very well for him.

Lance McCullers, Wicked 86mph Slider. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/7MdRBYKNF3
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 10, 2021

McCullers has thrown it the most of any pitch and it has six of 13 strikeouts for him on the season. He’s thrown it 63 times and has yet to even allow a hit to go along with the 47.1% whiff rate on it. The ground ball rate of 66.7% is highly encouraging for McCullers as well, though Detroit is 24th in ground ball rate so far.

McCullers is also down in swinging-strike rate by just a bit but the CSW is up 2.2% so that’s a fine tradeoff. There are some fears here with the walk rate because not only does a 14.6% walk rate put folks on base, it runs up that pitch count in a hurry. The Tigers are only walking 8.1% on the year but McCullers has nights where he needs a GPS to find the strike zone. The other major fear is McCullers has started poorly against LHH. That’s not been an issue through the career, but through the first 14 hitters, he’s given up a .437 wOBA and a 6.45 FIP. Detroit has six lefties projected for the lineup so it has to be at least talked about. If he’s chalky, I’ll eat in in cash but this isn’t the absolute best spot for McCullers.

Zack Wheeler ($8,400 DK/$9,700 FD)

Mets Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 13th SL – 13th CB – 13th

I already saw some noise on social media about the “Wheeler Revenge” game and my eyes about rolled out of my head. It’s not that big of a deal, Wheeler got $100 million. I think he’s alright guys. Anyways, he could wind up being chalky on DK because the price is more than reasonable and the Mets have been average. Perhaps the biggest issue for Wheeler is even if the Mets aren’t hitting a ton, they don’t strike out either. Only the Padres whiff less on the season and I’m not sure where the ceiling is for Wheeler. It doesn’t help figure out what version of Wheeler we’re getting when his K rate is easily a career-high at 31.1%. For his career, it sits at 22.6% so that’s a significant gap.

With that number in hand, it’s not shocking that the swinging strike rate is up 3% and the CSW is up about 7%. The fastball is excellent so far with half of the 14 strikeouts and that’s where things get interesting. It helps when you can blow hitters away with 100 MPH upstairs –

I need triple digit heat from Zack Wheeler and I NEED IT RIGHT NOW!!!#Phillies #RingTheBell pic.twitter.com/5C0o12Uu04
— Hunter Brody (@Brodes81) April 9, 2021

Brandon Nimmo leads the team at 3.1 in FanGraphs rating against the pitch and he’s 19th in baseball so far. After that, Jacob deGrom is fifth on the team against the fastball. You read that correctly. The Mets regular hitters are not doing much against that fastball right now so even with some flaws in the spot, Wheeler could get it done in a big way here.

Honorable Mention – I’ll at least throw in a mention of Zack Plesac but I’m going to have a hard time getting to him. We talked about this before but he’s looking a lot more like the 2019 version with an 18-20% K rate and that’s not enough to pay the top dollar for. The CSW is under 27% and I think he has the least attainable ceiling of the high-salary group. On the other side of the game, Carlos Rodon is somewhat interesting but the Indians are striking out at the second-lowest rate in baseball.

Gas Can of the Slate – I used the Braves stack last night and I’ll go right back to the well tonight. The Marlins bullpen pitched five innings last night and now they turn to Nick Neidert who was not good in the first start if we look at the metrics. He only gave up one earned run across 4.1 IP but the xFIP was 6.84 and he walked more hitters than he struck out. The swinging strike rate is only 8.2% and if you can’t miss Atlanta bats, you’re going to get worked over. I’m going to borrow some of what we talked about yesterday –

The first two have to be Ronald Acuna and Freddie Freeman. Acuna is making an early case for possibly the best player in baseball and has a .531 ISO and .571 wOBA while Freeman has a .360 ISO. Both players are under 18% for their K rate and both have serious upside against a pitcher who can’t strike folks out and throws a fastball 54% of the time. If Acuna walks, he’s got a great shot to swipe second immediately.

Atlanta has been below average to start but we’re talking around 30 plate appearances. They also woke up last night with eight runs. Also, dial it back to last year and Marcell Ozuna, Travis d’Arnaud, Dansby Swanson, and Ozzie Albies all had a wOBA over .360 and an ISO over .240. All six hitters occupied six of the top nine spots on the Braves against the fastball in 2020 as well.

Starting Rotation 4.14 Betting Section

Free Bet

Record – 9-8

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.14 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB

Starting Rotation 4.13

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

Starting Rotation 4.13

There are some really fun matchups tonight and you can make a strong argument that the top end of the field is even better than yesterday. We have at least six aces for their respective clubs on the mound tonight, which is exciting. It feels like a strong day to mostly spend up on pitching but let’s dig in and see who we like the most in an extra-large version of the Starting Rotation 4.13!

Starting Rotation 4.13 – Cash Picks

Trevor Bauer ($10,200 DK/$11,000 FD)

Rockies Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 15th CT – 26th SL – 13th CB – 5th

On a slate full of options, I’m attacking the Rockies outside of Coors and that’s likely to be the case often this season. This lineup honestly just isn’t that good. It’s fair to note that they’ve only had 90 PA against righties on the road but the early results aren’t encouraging. The whiff rate is over 26% to start with and the walk rate is under 6%. They also rank 21st or worse in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. Bauer has basically picked up where he left off last year with a 39.2% K rate, a 0.69 WHIP, and a 35% CSW. Even the swinging strike rate is up 1% to 13.6% through two starts. The curve he uses is just nasty –

Trevor Bauer, Pretty 80mph Knuckle Curve…and insta K Strut. 🌈 pic.twitter.com/XDBAfkCC4i
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 7, 2021

The fly ball rate is still over 42% but that’s come down from last season and I’m not all that worried about the 2.08 HR/9 with a Coors start under his belt. Bauer has hit double-digit strikeouts in both starts and he’s owned righties so far with a 43% K rate. The only LHH that I would even be mildly concerned with are Charlie Blackmon and Ryan McMahon but two hitters don’t break a play. That’s even more accurate when that pitcher has the upside Bauer possesses. The only way I’d not play Bauer is if MLB comes out with some type of punishment for the “suspicious” balls they’re inspecting from Bauer’s previous starts. I wouldn’t expect that in the least.

Shane Bieber ($10,700 DK/$11,200 FD)

White Sox Ranks vs Pitch Type – FB – 23rd SL – 1st CB – 15th

I’m not sure if folks will avoid Bieber just because of the matchup but I can’t say I’m all that worried here. Across 11 IP last year against the Sox, Bieber racked up a total of about 48 DK points, whiffed 18, and gave up three earned runs. You can make a strong argument that the White Sox were better last season since they had the services of Eloy Jimenez and Tim Anderson. Bieber has had a slightly average start to the season from preventing runs but I’m not sure there’s anything to be worried about. The hard-hit rate is just 36.4% and the CSW is 38.9%, higher than last season. The swinging strike rate has taken a huge leap from 17.1% to 22.2% this year and that leads the majors at this juncture. He’s throwing the slider about 20% more this year and it’s generated an absurd 72.2% whiff rate. His mix plays so well altogether –

Shane Bieber, Ks 4, 5 & 6.

Thru 3. It's just what he does. pic.twitter.com/5J9oh3Xkkm
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 7, 2021

The seven walks so far are mildly concerning for this price range and Chicago does lead the league in walk rate against righty pitching. Even having said that, Bieber is in the 22nd percentile in barrel rate and the 19th percentile in hard-hit rate. He’s also still striking out both sides of the plate and both sides have an xFIP of 2.82 or better. I would say one of the metrics that sticks out is his first strike rate, which is only 49.1% after living above 63% in his career. I don’t see anything wrong overall with Bieber and he’s a threat to lead the slate in strikeouts every time out.

Lucas Giolito ($9,800 DK/$9,800 FD)

Cleveland’s Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 19th CH – 16th SL – 16th

Giolito has really only had one poor inning so far this year and that came with some help from his defense. He’s racked up a 42.9% K rate thus far and the trio of FIP, xFIP, and xERA are all under 2.40. Giolito’s WHIP is down under 0.85 and hitters aren’t squaring him up at all with a 28.6% hard-hit rate. His CSW and swinging-strike rate are both up about 2% to 33.9% and 19.1% respectively. The changeup is already top 15 in the league through two starts and only Franmil Reyes and Eddie Rosario rate well against the change so far. That pitch has generated 12 of the 18 strikeouts for Giolito. You go ahead and hit that changeup –

Lucas Giolito, 93mph Fastball and 83mph Changeup, Overlay.

Hitting is impossible. pic.twitter.com/xsLGACM9pP
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 7, 2021

Perhaps the most encouraging aspect about the start for Giolito is his splits against LHH since the start of last season. In 2020, he sported a 34.7% K rate to lefties and just a .180 average. In just 16 hitters faced this season, he’s whiffed eight of them, and Cleveland is projected to have eight in their lineup. Cleveland is in the bottom half of the league in wOBA and wRC+ so far this year and I’ll have no issues pitching Giolito in any format this evening.

Brandon Woodruff ($7,500 DK/$8,800 FD)

Cubs Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 26th CH – 6th SL – 24th

I’m not sure why DK hates Woodruff since he scored 31 DK last time out and is still under $8,000. I feel like we see a very similar situation as last night in cash. The field will pick their favorite top-tier guy (likely Bauer) and pair it with attack the Cubs offense with Brewers pitching. Woodruff has maintained his pitch mix from 2020 and his four-seam continues to do the heavy lifting as far as strikeouts, with eight of the 13 so far. Overall, the K rate is virtually identical at 31% and the walk rate has dipped a little as well. The four-seam is tied for third in FanGraphs rating with some dude named Jacob deGrom. Seems like good company to keep.

Thru 5 IP, Brandon Woodruff has 7 K's

He's thrown 46 pitches pic.twitter.com/9y3Fn0cdsS
— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) April 7, 2021

It’s actually fairly striking how Woodruff looks identical to 2020 in many metrics. The CSW and swinging-strike rate are within 0.5% of each other and he’s still slightly worse in wOBA to the right side of the plate. He might give up a higher wOBA but the K rate makes up for it at 38.9% through two starts. There is not any reason for Woodruff to be this cheap. He did just see the Cubs but so did Peralta. That offense is mostly lost at this point, sitting no higher than 27th in slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. That goes along with them being dead last in average and OBP. The fact they struggle against the fastball so far just adds to Woodruff’s appeal on top of everything else.

Honorable Mention – Luis Castillo (how is he possibly this cheap), Stephen Strasburg

Starting Rotation 4.13 – GPP Picks

Dylan Bundy ($8,800 DK/$9,000 FD)

Royals Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 6th SL – 25th CB – 12th CH – 13th

It shapes up that Bundy could be in the same spot Alex Cobb was last night. No, it’s not because they both pitch for the same team but Bundy is that same weird salary range that may leave him forgotten. Much like Cobb, I think that’s a mistake and the four-seam/slider combo is super fun. They have combined for 11 of the 16 strikeouts Bundy has on the season and the slider has a whiff rate of 36%. Bundy is only allowing a 23.3% hard-hit rate in the early going with a 1% gain in the CSW and swinging strike rates as well.

Dylan Bundy, Wicked Breaking Balls. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/nIUQsmPBTR
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 6, 2021

What I really love about Bundy in this spot is he’s a good deal better to the right side of the plate. Last season the wOBA was .230 with a 33.3% K rate and a 0.32 HR/9. Through 29 hitters this season, Bundy is sporting a .254 wOBA, 37.9% K rate, and a 2.43 xFIP. With the Royals whiffing at the second-highest rate to righties so far, this could turn into an elite spot for Bundy. All of the power for the Royals is on the right side and it’s directly in Bundy’s wheelhouse.

John Means ($7,800 DK/$8,300 FD)

Mariners Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 29th CH – 1st CB – 11th

This looks to be a strength-on-strength matchup, as Means needs his changeup to fare well on the mound. What’s interesting is Ty France and Dylan Moore really carry the M’s rating against the change. Taking those two hitters and a bench hitter away from their rating would leave them around 15th. Means has all of his strikeouts on this duo of pitches and both are over 30% in whiff rate. With the pitch data not looking as scary once we dig in, the spot gets more intriguing. Also, your FanGraphs rating only matters so much against this –

John Means, Nasty 83mph Changeup. 👌 pic.twitter.com/wUaErQc9cO
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 8, 2021

I think the K rate is on the way up from the 20.3% it stands at now. Last year it was over 23% and the CSW/swinging strike rate are both up 2% and 3% so far. The fly ball rate is high at 51.5% but Seattle is 16th in fly-ball rate against lefties. They are also striking out 29.5% of the time so far, which leans this matchup more towards Means. Seattle is also hitting just .143, has a .026 ISO, and a .456 OPS which are all in the bottom-five against LHP. Means will not get a lot of attention (and comes with risk) but he could rival any other pitcher in fantasy points tonight.

Kevin Gausman ($6,800 DK)

Reds Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 1st SF – 20th SL – 10th

I wouldn’t be interested in Gausman at all on FD but he’s a very cheap SP2 for DK. This is another spot that might not make the most sense on paper, but we have to remember that the Reds destroyed Pirates’ pitching and that skewed the numbers. Gausman hasn’t been quite as good as last year since the K rate is only around 22% in two starts. Last year it was over 32% and it’s hard not to notice the swinging strike rate is just 10.8%. That’s 4.2% down from 2020 but yet, the CSW is only down 0.9%. Gausman is down about 1 MPH on the four-seam and splitter but the fastball is still inside the top-eight in FanGraphs pitch value. The splitter is the best in the majors but that’s not a heavy usage pitch.

Gausman is under a .255 wOBA to both sides of the plate so far and the biggest nitpick in the splits is the 14.9% K rate to lefties. That was not an issue last season as the LHH whiffed at a 31.5% rate so if you believe that Gausman isn’t that far off from last year, there’s plenty of upside at this price tag. Pitching in San Fran is a major upgrade from Cincinnati and I can’t see the Reds continuing to strike out at just a 20.3% rate. Last season it was a 25.6% rate and the offense isn’t that drastically different.

Max Fried ($6,500 DK/$7,600 FD)

Marlins Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 27th CB – 4th SL – 22nd

Fried got smacked against the Nationals but the start before that, he went 94 pitches deep and whiffed eight Phillies. His 9.00 ERA looks far out of whack with his 3.58 FIP and 3.25 xFIP and the .565 BABIP (!!) is a fairly large culprit. The K rate looks stout at 28.2% and the CSW/swinging strike rates have both come up from last season by 4% and 3%, supporting his newfound K appeal. The hard-hit rate looks great at just 20.8% and Fried has seen both the four-seam and curve generate a whiff rate over 30% this season. His curve is the leading whiff pitch so that soothes some fears about the Marlins being excellent against the curve.

Miami only has 56 plate appearances against southpaws this year but has walked just 3.6% of the time. That’s dead last so the 21.4% K rate looks a little better. That should help Fried as well since his K rate is a touch high at 7.7%. The Marlins are also 26th in hard-hit rate against lefties and Fried is just way too cheap for this spot.

Honorable Mention – Hyun Jin Ryu, Jack Flaherty, Ryan Yarbrough

Gas Can of the Slate – I’m a big Pablo Lopez fan but until he can prove that he can pitch outside of Miami, I’m interested when he’s on the road. Taking on Atlanta is never easy and it’s worse when you have a career 6.11 ERA, .338 wOBA, and a 1.60 HR/9 on the road across 95.2 IP. The first two players in the stack are no strangers to DFS in Ronald Acuna and Freddie Freeman. Acuna is making an early case for possibly the best player in baseball and has a .531 ISO and .571 wOBA while Freeman has a .360 ISO. Both players are under 18% for their K rate and both are the top hitters against the changeup. Those are the two main pitchers for Lopez and he could be in trouble here.

Atlanta has been below average to start but we’re talking around 30 plate appearances. Dial it back to last year and Marcell Ozuna, Travis d’Arnaud, Dansby Swanson, and Ozzie Albies all had a wOBA over .360 and an ISO over .240. All six hitters occupied six of the top nine spots on the Braves against the fastball and change in 2020 as well. There’s not a lot of gas cans on this slate but the Braves look fantastic.

Starting Rotation 4.13 Betting Section

Free Bet

Record – 7-6

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.13 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB Premium

Starting Rotation 4.12

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

Starting Rotation 4.12

I’m excited to put Sunday in the rearview mirror and get into this slate because we have multiple big-name aces and a handful of others that could rack up the fantasy points. Even writing the night before, I can tell you I’m going to have at least one lineup with double aces on the mound. Let’s get into this slate and figure out what directions we need to take in Starting Rotation 4.12!

Starting Rotation 4.12 – Cash Picks

Gerrit Cole ($10,700 DK/$11,000 FD)

Blue Jays Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 23rd SL – 7th CB – 9th CH – 27th

It’s always going to be hard to not want to lock in Cole on any given slate. He’s one of the best fantasy and real-life pitchers in baseball. His K rate is already incredible at 43.8% and it’s been the slider that has done the damage so far with 11 of his 20 strikeouts. Cole’s CSW is sitting at 35.1% which would be a career-high but it’s not exceptionally out of line with his past three seasons. With Toronto sporting a K rate over 25% so far, this is a good spot for Cole.

If there are a couple of nitpicks, they are minor. I mean, you nitpick this crazy mix –

Gerrit Cole, 84mph Knuckle Curve and 101mph Fastball, Overlay.

I'm sorry hitters. 😂 pic.twitter.com/q1r6YRoNEW
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 6, 2021

First, he’s given up all the production to righties so far this year. They do have a .346 wOBA but his career mark is .282 and last season it was down at .250. It’s not a particularly large concern and the Jays are righty-heavy in their projected lineup with only three lefties. My other small concern is the splits between catchers. Going back to last season, Cole has been definitively worse when Gary Sanchez catches him as opposed to Kyle Higashioka. That has been the case through two starts so far in 2021. That’s not a fair comparison per se, but when 2020 splits favor Higashioka by a 2.91 ERA gap, it’s hard not to notice it. Overall, Cole is still the 1A pitcher on this slate at worst and there’s no reason not to pitch him in cash or GPP tonight.

Tyler Glasnow ($10,400 DK/$10,700 FD)

Rangers Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 8th SL – 18th CB – 24th

It should probably concern opposing hitters that Glasnow isn’t even throwing his curve all that much and it’s his leading strikeout pitch. When this is your third-most used pitch, my goodness –

Tyler Glasnow, Filthy 84mph Curveballs. 😷

Ks 6 & 7. pic.twitter.com/nl4QOavgMN
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 7, 2021

Seven of his 15 whiffs have come from the curve but the slider has been the story for Glasnow. It carries a 33.5% whiff rate and is seventh in FanGraphs value. The walk rate has come down as well to just 4.7% and Glasnow’s lowest walk rate was in 2019 at 6.1%. To be fair, his K rate is down a hair at 34.9% from last year but the WHIP went from 1.13 to 0.58 and the HR/9 is zero so far.

Glasnow has been a different pitcher so far this season and even with some metrics coming down to Earth, he is formidable. The projected Texas lineup has five lefties but Glasnow has handled them with a .134 wOBA and .125 OBP through 16 hitters faced. The Rangers also whiff over 27% of the time as a team. Knowing Glasnow threw 97 pitches last game is very comforting as well since Tampa is not the most trustworthy team with starters. Glasnow is the reason I said Cole was 1A and I will have both these pitchers in the same lineup tomorrow (more in a few minutes).

Freddy Peralta ($7,700 DK)

Cubs Ranks vs Pitch Type – FB – 26th CB – 26th

This might be the craziest stat that I can find for Peralta, from mlb.com –

Since 2018, the year that Peralta debuted, only Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole, and Max Scherzer have better strikeouts per nine innings than Peralta (12.3) while pitching as many innings.

We’ve seen this Cubs offense really struggle so far as they only scored once against the Pirates again on Sunday. Peralta has already seen them once and he whiffed eight Cubs on his way to 28.3 DK points. He also threw 91 pitches, which is great to see. With Chicago striking out almost 31% so far against righty pitching, it’s impossible to not be interested here.

It’s fair to wonder how long Peralta can survive with just two pitches but they have been electric so far. His curve has a whiff rate over 62% and the fastball isn’t far behind at about 43%. The curve is generating strikes even as it hits batters in the foot –

Freddy Peralta, Brutal 80mph Curveball…HBP Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/H1s4qzmEp4
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 7, 2021

You certainly want the 24.1% walk rate to go back down and that is the largest concern right now. The lack of control can still hurt Peralta at any given moment. His CSW is 33.3% which is fantastic but it’s still hard to not have some small concerns. I feel like he’s the natural SP2 on DK tonight but perhaps I’m wrong.

Honorable Mention – Zach Greinke (Cole and Glasnow just have such higher ceilings in that range)

Starting Rotation 4.12 – GPP Picks

Sandy Alcantara ($8,500 DK/$9,500 FD)

Braves Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 30th CH – 12th SL – 9th

There are two reasons Alcantara is only GPP for me. One, the Braves are just a good offense. They’ve started slow but they’ll come around. I mean, 2020 saw them rank first against the fastball so I don’t expect them to stay down at 30th very long. Secondly, this can’t possibly be the real Alcantara…can it? The K rate alone is so far outside of the career normal that I can’t buy in here yet. The first two starts of the year have seen him sport a 35.4% K rate while the career number is 19.9%. The CSW has followed suit at 34.5% after a 26.6% rate throughout his career.

The largest noticeable differences are velocity and pitch mix. Alcantara is up by about 2 MPH on all of his main pitches, including the changeup that he’s leaning on more in 2021. The man is out here throwing 99 MPH gas up high –

Sandy Alcantara climbs the ladder with 99 to get Yadi pic.twitter.com/Olg7r88Oa0
— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) April 6, 2021

Last season he only threw it about 10% of the time and it has a 50% whiff rate and an xwOBA of .168. Both sides of the plate sit under a .195 wOBA so far in his two starts and he’s recorded 17 total strikeouts. Alcantara is just 25 so perhaps this is just a natural improvement. Even with some struggles, Atlanta is top-five in ISO so this is a dangerous spot. It could drive the ownership way down however and could be worth some risk.

Alex Cobb ($8,400 DK/$8,400 FD)

Royals Ranks vs Pitch Types – SF – 6th (18th last season) FB – 6th CB – 10th

Cobb was sort of a mixed bag in his first start, giving up three runs but also whiffing seven across six innings. That’s not the worst outing against an offense like the White Sox and his 33% CSW is interesting. The other interesting facet was he used his curve around 12% more than last year in this first start. It generated a .154 xwOBA and had a whiff rate of over 40%. It also has to be talked about that his first start featured a .412 BABIP. That helps explain the difference between his 4.50 ERA to a 2.74 xFIP. The ground ball rate of 66.7% was encouraging as well.
The Royals are a good spot to find some strikeouts as well since they are whiffing 28.9% of the time. That’s the fourth-highest rate in the league and Cobb generated a 19.6% swinging strike rate as well. Over his career, the splits have been about dead even for Cobb but he’s given up slightly less power to righties, an asset against this Royals squad. They can be a pesky lineup with ranks inside the top 12 in OPS, ISO, and wRC+ but I feel like this mid-range is going to be ignored for the most part.

Huascar Ynoa ($6,000 DK/$5,500 FD)

Marlins Ranks vs Pitch Types – SL – 25th FB – 28th

I do wonder if Ynoa becomes the SP2 on DK in cash games since there is a big salary saving over Peralta. For now, let’s talk about why we like him and then go from there. We only have a total of 30.2 innings from Ynoa in the majors and to be honest, they haven’t been super impressive before six innings this year. However, he’s 22 years old so let’s not judge too harshly. His CSW has taken a step forward to 28% and the K rate sitting at 23.8% would be a nice jump for him as well. If he’s not going to flash gaudy strikeout numbers, we do love to see a ground ball rate of 53.3% and that’s in line with 52.6% over the major league innings so far. The one aspect I truly think we can hang the hat on is his slider.

The pitch is ranked fourth among the league in FanGraphs rating so far, and every strikeout recorded has come from the slider. Ynoa has yet to give up a hit on it and the whiff rate is 50%. Just look at this thing go!

Huascar Ynoa, Wicked 84mph Breaking Ball. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/qfgGFsqArF
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 7, 2021

Jazz Chisholm and Starling Marte are the only Miami hitters with a FanGraphs rating over 0.5 against the slider so far. With the Marlins being poor against his main pitch types, that’s a big checkmark for Ynoa. Not only does Miami whiff 26.1% as a team, but they are also 25th or worse in slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. Ynoa threw 68 pitches last time out so if things go well, we should expect between 80-90 this time around. For $6,000 on DK and the minimum SP price on FD, you could do a lot worse.

Honorable Mention – Triston McKenzie – Could be caped at around 80 pitches and he’s expensive on DK

Carlos Rodon – Cleveland is top-eight in wOBA to LHP and strikes out only 16.8% despite being third in plate appearances

Gas Can of the Slate – I’m going to give two options. My plan right now is to either spend up or not spend over $7,700 on a pitcher on DK for either slot. If I take that second route, I want a big name stack and I’m looking at the Yankees. They get a returning Robbie Ray who got obliterated by RHH last year with a .425 wOBA, 2.20 WHIP, and a 2.48 HR/9. He threw a fastball and slider almost 80% of the time and DJ LeMahieu is currently leading the league in FanGraphs rating against sliders. He also sported a .432 wOBA to LHP last season, while hitters like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton both had ISO’s over .230. Judge was all the way up at .360 but that trio is going to cost you significantly. It would be nice to see Clint Fraizer in the lineup to provide some relief with his .242 ISO and .884 OPS. I’d be interested in almost any RHH in the New York lineup tomorrow.

My next target for the cheap stack also relies on a fastball and slider combo and he’s also a lefty. Madison Bumgarner has been terrible to start the season with an 11.00 ERA, 6.19 FIP, 40.6% hard contact rate, and a 2.22 WHIP. The right side of the plate has tagged him for a .430 wOBA and a .343 average, not to mention a 1.13 HR/9. Bring on the Oakland A’s who come in extremely cheap tonight. Mark Canha, Jed Lowrie, Matt Chapman, and Ramon Laureano are all prime targets in my eyes. Canha had a .423 wOBA last year against lefties and is the sixth-best fastball hitter in the league early. Lowrie boasts a .336 wOBA career-wise against southpaws while Chapman is over a .210 ISO and Laureano is over a .340 wOBA. There’s far too much cheap potential here to not pair up with Glasnow/Cole on the mound.

Starting Rotation 4.12 Betting Section

Free Bet

Record – 7-5

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.12 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday – 04/11/2021

Jared Levitt 4 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

Welcome to the Sunday Funday version of Aces and Bases. We have a nice 10 game slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel today.

Today’s slate is void of any true ace and because of that I envision ownership being pretty spread out. As a result, none of the pitchers going today will give you the warm and fuzzies.

Something that you’ll all need to keep an eye on today is weather. There’s potential for rain in Baltimore (should be cleared out by game time), Dunedin (Toronto via Buffalo 🙂 ), NY, and Chicago. While I don’t think any games are PPD threats, it is something you’ll want to monitor throughout the morning leading up to game-time.

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces, or Lack Thereof

The first pitcher I’m recommending today is Jordan Montgomery ($8.5k). In his first outing this year he was splendid. He pitched 6 innings with 7k’s and only gave up 4 hits. In that start, he had some really promising metrics. 19.2% SwStr%, a 26% soft contact rate, and a chase rate of nearly 56%. Outside of Arozarena, the majority of the Rays power comes from the left side of the plate. This is not a 100% safe spot for Montgomery, but he has some upside in this match-up.

Next up on the list is Matt Shoemaker ($7.8k). I told you at the start there were no aces going today, and I meant it. Over the past week the Mariners have a 33% k rate. Anytime the rate gets that high you really need to look at attacking them, regardless of the skill-set of the pitcher. Bad hitters can make average pitchers look good. In his first start of the year against the Tigers, the maker of shoes threw 6 innings and came away with 5 k’s, a QS and a win. At his price-point that’ll do it. He also had a chase rate of nearly 41%.

The final pitcher I’m recommending today is Trevor Williams ($8k). Williams gets to face off against his former squad and I fully expect him to take advantage of it. This is a very weak hitting lineup and not one that should scare anyone. In his first start, Williams pitched to an xFIP of 2.99, a k rate of 27.3%, and a hard hit rate south of 31%. All great numbers.

On a day like today where there’s no true ace, I’ll find myself starting a pitcher that will be able to limit the damage and I feel like the 3 pitchers above fit that bill.

Now on to the fun part!

MLB DFS: The Bases

There are some things in life that should be considered absolutes. Death, Taxes, and the White Sox against a lefty. The White Sox get to face off against Mike Minor today. Let’s take a look at some career woba’s against lefites. Robert ($3.2k) – .358, Abreu ($3.9K) – .404, Mercedes ($3.2k small sample size alert) – .576, and Grandal ($3.6k)– .376. That’s enough of a look that will want you looking here for offense.

My next stack has me going to another AL Central team, the Indians. The Indians get to face-off against Mr. Jose Urena. In his first start Urena battled control issues, walking 4. Add in the 4 hits he gave up, this is a recipe for runs. Lots of them and that’s what you want to target. Pitchers that will let a high number of runners on. Just keep the carousel going. The 4 hitters here that I’ll be targeting are Hernandez ($2.7k), Ramirez ($4.1k), Rosario ($3.2k), and Reyes ($2.8k). Reyes is one of the hottest hitters in the game right now.

My final stack of the day has me going fishing. Mike Trout’s Angels. Tanner Roark is not a good pitcher, at least not anymore. In his sole start of the year he gave up 3 dongs in 3 innings of work. He also had a nice hard hit rate of 69%. If this game plays, feel confident in rolling out Ohtani ($3.5k), Trout ($4.5k), Rendon ($3.5k), and Walsh ($3k). The game between these 2 teams did end late last night so they have a quick turnaround to play today. Make sure to keep an extra eye on this lineup.

MLB DFS Sunday Funday Summary

As with every Sunday slate, make sure to keep an extra eye on lineups. With it being getaway day, players (especially catchers) tend to get today as an extra day off.

Enjoy today’s slate. It has the makings of an offense heavy slate. Remember, chicks dig the long ball.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS

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MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bases

MLB DFS Sunday Funday Summary

Starting Rotation 4.18

Starting Rotation 4.18 – Cash

Starting Rotation 4.18 – GPP

Starting Rotation 4.17

Starting Rotation – Early

Starting Rotation – Late

Starting Rotation 4.16

Starting Rotation 4.16 – Cash Targets

Starting Rotation 4.16 – GPP Targets

Starting Rotation 4.16 Betting Section

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Starting Rotation 4.15

Starting Rotation 4.15 – Early Targets

Starting Rotation 4.15

Starting Rotation 4.15 – Late Targets

Starting Rotation 4.15 Betting Section

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Starting Rotation 4.14

Starting Rotation 4.14 – Early Slate

Starting Rotation 4.14 – Cash Picks

Starting Rotation 4.14 – GPP Picks

Starting Rotation 4.14 Betting Section

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Starting Rotation 4.13

Starting Rotation 4.13 – Cash Picks

Starting Rotation 4.13 – GPP Picks

Starting Rotation 4.13 Betting Section

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Starting Rotation 4.12

Starting Rotation 4.12 – Cash Picks

Starting Rotation 4.12 – GPP Picks

Starting Rotation 4.12 Betting Section

Free Bet

MLB DFS: The Aces, or Lack Thereof

MLB DFS: The Bases

MLB DFS Sunday Funday Summary

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