MLB DFS

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.22

My goodness, was it an absolute minefield for pitching last night. Walker Buehler, Max Fried and Chad Kuhl were about the only two that hit and Buehler was the only big hit. Past that, it was littered with busted chalk and pitchers that couldn’t get out of their own way. There’s not many more obvious choices for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.22 but we’ll unearth some gems along the way here!

Cash Game Options

Zac Gallen

Gallen was featured today in Picks and Pivots so there’s no need to go over him again.

Zack Wheeler

Pitch Data – FB – 1st SL – 6th CB – 8th CH – 25th

At first glance, it’s not an encouraging matchup for Wheeler via the pitch data. However, some of that is mitigated by the pieces the Braves are currently missing. Yes, Nola fell apart but that seemed more a case of him losing it than anything. He was strong to start and I was as if someone hit the switch on him. Wheeler has a 9.8% swinging strike rate and a a puny 12% K rate.

He’s really cash only (and overpriced at that) because of the K rate so far. His calling card has been no hard contact at 27.2% and no fly balls at 22.5%. Neither side of the plate has over a .300 wOBA against Wheeler but the matchup means we should consider him. He’s certainly not my pitcher of choice. We’d just be aiming for safety here.

Kyle Hendricks

Pitch Data – FB – 10th CB – 4th CH – 16th

Another matchup where the pitch data may not look great, but Hendricks is very good at limiting damage. His ERA hasn’t been over 3.50 since 2015 and the FIP hasn’t been over 4.00 in his career. This year, the K rate has dipped a little to 19.7%. The White Sox might help him out though since they sit fourth in K rate at 26.1%.

Chicago showed last night that the lineup is certainly dangerous. Still, Hendricks doesn’t allow much hard contact at 36.4% and it’s hard to lift the ball on him at a 28.3% fly ball rate. Aiding that metric is the White Sox ranking 26th in flay ball rate to RHP at just 31.8%. Hendricks should be able to frustrate this mostly young White Sox lineup with his craftiness.

GPP Options

Triston McKenzie

McKenzie was also featured in Picks and Pivots so you can check out his breakdown there!

Dustin May

Pitch Data – FB – 8th CT – 20th

May is a really interesting case for this slate. He does throw a curve and a change but not really enough to consider here. I thought about putting him in cash but the reality is he’s only scored above 9.5 DK twice in five starts. Now, he’s still appealing because the Rockies have two different offenses. They have a good one in Coors and they have an abjectly awful one on the road. They even got Buehler a get right spot last night for the first time all year.

Colorado may also help out May’s lack of strikeouts since they have a 27.1% rate to RHP on the road. There’s no discernible advantage from either side of the plate, so the projected lineup shouldn’t be a huge concern from that aspect. I’m not a huge fan of the price but there’s definitely a reason to take the shot here with May flashing ceiling in two starts.

Justus Sheffield

Pitch Data – FB – 23rd SL – 30th CH – 18th

Sheffield arguably has the best pitch data matchup of the slate and that’s very nice tick in his direction. It also helps that he comes cheap still and the Rangers have been rough vs LHP so far. They rank sixth K rate at 27.1%, which should help out Sheffield’s 21.4% mark. Texas ranks no higher than 20th in average, OBP, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ vs LHP. Their best mark is the 18th best ISO, at .162.

The young lefty for the Mariners is combatting a mediocre K rate with a great fly ball rate of just 27.1%. Texas is right in the middle of the pack for fly ball rate at 17th overall. Sheffield is far from trustworthy, but with only one earned run over his past 12 IP he is rolling. The matchup is well worth considering.

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.21

It was quite the day in the Starting Rotation on Thursday! We helped a member with a takedown and really nailed the majority of the picks. Even though Kevin Gausman wasn’t anything special, he still scored 18 DK. The only pitcher that scored under 16 was Brandon Woodruff and we’ll take that every night. Tonight is a good deal trickier but we do have a ton of options to pick from for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.21.

Cash Game Options

Aaron Nola

He was covered in Picks and Pivots today, so you can read up on him right here.

Max Fried

Pitch Data – FB – 9th SL – 13th CB – 10th

This would not normally be a cash pick but the options are fairly limited tonight. Fried draws a tough matchup for a lefty pitcher against the Phillies but he has come through against them once already for 23.7 DK points. He’s upped the swinging strike rate to 12.9% and the overall K rate is at 25.4%. Hitters simply have not gotten the ball in the air or hit it hard at 21.1% and 32.4%, respectively.

Philly should throw out seven RHH against Fried but that actually might help the K upside just a bit. He only whiffs LHH at a 9.1% rate compared to 29.5% to the right side. Fried is one of the better young pitchers in the league and I’ll ride with the talent tonight.

*Note* Bryce Harper is not in the lineup tonight, which certainly doesn’t hurt Fried at all.

Andrew Heaney

Pitch Data – FB – 8th SL – 15th CH – 30th

This is another one that I might not normally love for cash, but it’s always a slate by slate kind of deal. The A’s absolutely have some power vs LHP and that’s a concern. They also lead the league in K rate to LHP at 29.1%. In the first start of the season, Heaney racked up 19.3 DK vs these A’s on just 64 pitches. His last start he threw 101 against the Dodgers, a much better offense.

If Heaney uses that changeup a little more often, it could really give the A’s fits. The swinging strike rate is more than respectable at 12.4%, as is the 24.5% K rate overall. We don’t love an 8.8% walk rate but with Oakland leading the league in strikeouts to LHP, the good should more than outweigh the bad in this spot.

GPP Options

Chad Kuhl

Just like Nola, he’s been covered today. I think on DK, he’s very close to a cash option at his price especially with the options behind Nola not the prototypical picks.

Walker Buehler

Pitch Data – FB – 5th SL – 5th CT – 17th CB – 27th

Buehler is likely the most talented pitcher on the slate overall but there’s no way getting around it – he’s bee awful this year. In four starts, he’s yet to cross 18 DK points and the 5.43 xFIP supports the 5.21 ERA. The K rate is down to 21.3% and the walk rate has skyrocketed to 11.3%. Also, the HR/9 is a massive 2.37 right now and that’s not like Buehler at all.

Eventually, he’s going to snap out of this funk and we want to be on the first big game. His price hasn’t come down at all so it’s not like he’s easy to play. Perhaps the Rockies on the road can bring that first massive game. They rank 20th or worse in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+ on the road to RHP. Additionally, the 25.5% K rate should favor Buehler. It’s a matter of time before he turns things around.

Adrian Houser

Pitch Data – FB – 29th SL – 12th CH – 23rd

Houser is a touch overpriced on DK but we can’t deny the spot for him. The pitch count doesn’t appear to be a concern with 87, 77 and 86 in the past three and he’s scored 14.9 DK against these Pirates once already on 68 pitches. Pittsburgh is approaching 26% in K rate and are bottom five across the board in everything we look at. There’s not much else to write about past the Pirates being the second-worst team to the fastball and Houser uses that pitch 65% of the time.

Lance McCullers

Pitch Data – FB – 11th CB – 17th CH – 9th

I always have a soft spot for McCullers and the pitch data is a little bit better than I thought it might be. The change is the pitch he uses the least, so that helps. We may not love the 45.3% hard hit rate but the 18.9% fly ball rate is beyond excellent. That ranks third among starters to this point.

McCullers doesn’t have an impressive ERA at 5.47 but the 3.95 xFIP suggests that positive regression is on the way. San Diego absolutely has a good offense and doesn’t strike out that much at 21%. The BABIP to RHH is pretty high at .323 so it should be expected to come down as we go. While this isn’t the greatest spot McCullers will ever get, he should be low-owned and he has the ability to shut down any team in the majors on any given night.

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.