Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 4.20
I’m starting today by sending a big thank you to Brian for covering the pitching portion of Monday’s slate. I expected to have internet where I spent the weekend and that was an adventure and he (of course) stepped up massively.
It seems that DK has heard our annoyance with the 6:30 games not being a part of the main slate because they are involved in the Tuesday slate. The slightly not good news is the slate size is 13 games, which is an awful lot. It also shapes up to be similar to yesterday where at first glance, there is not a slam dunk option that we should be totally in love with. Let’s dig into the Starting Rotation 4.20 to find out who we like and who can propel our lineups into the green tonight!
Starting Rotation 4.20
Note – I have to be honest, I don’t have a read on who’s going to be chalk here. I can build a case against a lot of pitchers to not play them in cash tonight, but some options will undoubtedly come in chalky. I’m going to write up the pitchers that I like and list what I think will happen, but we’ll let the projected ownership guide us.
Zac Gallen ($8,900 DK)
The pitch data does look fairly terrifying but it’s important to remember that’s just one data point. Gallen made his first start of the season and threw over 80 pitches, so 95 or more should be well in the range tonight. In that first start, he struck out eight hitters through four innings. That’s a fantastic sign, as is the 12.2% swinging strike rate which is virtually identical to last season. Taking last year into account, Gallen was also dead even to each side of the plate with a .282 wOBA to each and a K rate over 26% to each side as well. In his first start, his stuff looked as sharp as ever –
Gallen has sported a fly ball rate under 33% since the start of last season and the xFIP has not been over 3.62. Cincinnati is a dangerous offense but Gallen priced under $9,000 seems like a mistake. The loss of Nick Castellanos does wonders for Gallen’s outlook as well, especially since he’s the third-best fastball hitter on the Reds. Lastly, the Reds also strike out almost 24% of the time. When a pitcher can score 20 DK in just four innings, we have to be interested in any format. It does stink that he’s not on FD because he might be my most comfortable pick.
Cash & GPP Option
Taijuan Walker ($7,600 DK/$7,700 FD)
The Chicago offense is coming around a little bit but Walker has started well and I think he can keep up the momentum. Not only has he changed his pitch mix, but he’s also picked up velocity across the board between 1-2 MPH. Walker is leaning less on the four-seam which has resulted in racking up more strikeouts with it this year and raise the whiff rate from 23.1% to 34.8%. The K rate has also jumped up from 22.2% to 29.3% and he’s yet to give up a home run. I think the most interesting facet of Walker’s newfound mix and velocity is the 12% swinging-strike rate, up from 7.8% in 2020. The Cubs are whiffing 27.1% of the time and seven regular hitters have a swinging strike rate over 11%.
The projected lineup splits right down the middle but it actually works in Walker’s favor. He’s striking out RHH 25.9% which is the lesser of his rates but the wOBA is lower a just .230. Likewise, LHH has the higher wOBA at .302 but Walker also strikes them out at a 35.7% rate. The FIP to each side is 2.77 or lower and the only real issue with this spot is the Cub’s offense is better than they’ve shown so far. They should continue to get right in some games but Walker is very cheap. His splitter really just disappears on hitters –
Cash and GPP and he might wind up being my favorite cash play on FD
Shohei Ohtani ($7,500 DK)
I’m not terribly interested over on FD since Ohtani will be limited to around 75 pitches. The price works far better on DK and I think he could be the chalky SP2 on name value alone, but I could still be wrong on that. It’s been over two weeks since Ohtani last took the mound and he had blister concerns, so he’s likely better off in GPP but this spot bristles with upside even at 75 pitches. Texas is striking out at a 30% clip against righty pitching so far this year and is average against the pitch mix.
The lefty-heavy lineup for Ohtani helps him to some extent. Over his career, the K rate is perfectly fine at 24.8% and he backs it up with a 0.36 HR/9 and a .268 wOBA. It’s a little difficult to gauge Ohtani just from one start but he only had a 4.3% barrel rate in that game. It should also be noted that his four-seam was blistering in the first start, averaging 98.1 MPH and last season saw it average 93.8 MPH. The splitter accounted for six of his eight strikeouts in that start and with that pitch not being used by many pitchers, it has a chance to do serious damage again here. When everything is working, well….our friend Ghost likes to say Good Night Jim Kite –
GPP and possibly cash
Corbin Burnes ($10,800 DK/$10,500 FD)
Typically we start at the very top in salary but that’s not the case tonight in the Starting Rotation 4.20. It’s going to be a battle tonight and Burnes comes in with some of the best possible metrics in the majors. We’ll going to talk about the numbers but sometimes it’s best to just illustrate it –
That is pretty, pretty good. Burnes easily has the highest-ranked cutter in baseball and he’s 2.4 points above Marcus Stroman of the Mets. The K rate is is the second-best in baseball, 0.2% behind Jacob deGrom. The BABIP is .103, the FIP is 0.87 and the xFIP is 1.18. Burnes is even 14th in swinging-strike rate and there are no metrics on his side that wouldn’t lead us to play him. This is matchup-based more than anything else.
The Padres strike out the least of any team in the majors to righty pitching. They also rank no lower than eighth in OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ as a team. No hitter on the Padres has a FanGraphs rating over 0.8 against the cuter and that fascinates me. Granted, I wouldn’t spend this much on a cash play but if the field all takes other routes, we could get an elite pitcher in a phenomenal pitch data spot at low ownership. That cutter is just completely evil.
GPP Only
Luis Castillo ($6,600 DK)
There is simply no getting around it, 2021 has been atrocious for Castillo through three starts. The ERA is 7.04, the K rate is 17.9%, the velocity is down 2 MPH on the fastball/changeup combo he lives on…it’s just ugly all the way around. The one aspect that jumps out quickly is even though he’s not throwing it a lot, Castillo’s sinker is getting mauled for a .600 average, 1.267 slugging, .784 wOBA, and just an 8% whiff rate. For comparison, he gave up a .289 wOBA on the same pitch last year so I don’t think he should totally ditch it, but perhaps the 2 MPH drop is just leaving it more hittable.
Arizona is a bit scary based on the pitch type, but that might be a hair misleading. Eduardo Escobar leads the team and is 11th in the majors against that pitch. Past that, the next two are Andy Young (who isn’t a regular) and Ketel Marte who is still on the IL. The bottom line to me is Castillo is simply way too talented to be this cheap. He’s not going to continue to have a 47.9% strand rate, which is absurd. The other fear so far this season is a .396 wOBA to LHH along with the 3.00 HR/9 so I’d rather take the chance on him in GPP, but could see the field flocking at $6,600.
GPP, only cash if he’s projected to be overwhelming chalk
Tyler Anderson ($6,300 DK)
It’s always nice to see a team be 30th against the primary pitch type and that’s the case for Anderson tonight. It’s not been the best results for him so far but two games against the Cubs and one against the Padres don’t help the cause when you’re a southpaw. Throughout 111 plate appearances, Detroit is whiffing 30.6% of the time which is fourth-most in the league. They are also dead last in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. In honesty, this play could make sense in cash as the SP2 just by the metrics for the Tigers. As far as Anderson goes, the 20.9% K rate is fine for such a low price even though we typically hunt for higher. The barrel rate is also encouraging at just 6.1%, especially for who he’s faced so far.
We talked earlier about how Burnes has the best-rated cutter in baseball and Anderson is tied for seventh with Trevor Bauer of the Dodgers. That’s some pretty solid company to keep. His 13.7% swinging-strike rate is excellent as well for this salary and seven of the everyday players have a swinging strike rate over 11%. The .348 BABIP so far seems fairly high and Anderson was only at a .286 mark last year and .302 for his career, so we can expect some regression. Anderson sure looks like a pretty solid punt option tonight and one I’m very interested in.
GPP and possibly cash
Honorable Mention – FD is very difficult for Starting Rotation 4.20. We talked about Burnes, Hyun-Jin Ryu gets a Boston team that is wrecking the ball, Zack Wheeler has a K rate under 20% to LHH and should face at least five, Ohtani is on a pitch count and Eduardo Rodriguez gets the RHH-heavy Blue Jays. There are some serious issues with all of them. Perhaps Wheeler is seen as the safest of the group for cash but I wouldn’t use him otherwise myself. Maybe Chris Paddack picks up steam since the Brewers are without Christian Yelich but that’s another play I wouldn’t touch other than cash games.
Gas Can of the Slate – This isn’t just about chasing last time out for Patrick Corbin. No, every metric through 6.1 IP looks horrible for him. His K-BB rate is upside down by 2.5%, his WHIP is 3.00, the HR/9 is 5.68, the barrel rate is 20% and the swinging strike rate is under 10% for the first time since 2016. Everything is going poorly for him and the Cardinals are first in baseball in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ against lefties so far. They take the stage as the premier stack in Starting Rotation 4.20 for me.
There isn’t a pitch data standout on the St. Louis side but that might not matter all that much. With Corbin giving up a .656 wOBA and sporting just an 11.1% K rate to righties, the Cards set up incredibly well. The quintet of Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong, and Dylan Carlson all have a wOBA of at least .435 this season. DeJong and Nado have an ISO of at least .300 and Carlson sits at .444. Molina leads with 1.000, but he does have just nine plate appearances. The bottom line here is the Cards are cheap-ish with DeJong at $3,700 and Carlson at $3,100 (cash game staples anyone?) and it shouldn’t be an issue to play them with any pitcher you like.
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.20 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
