Starting Rotation 4.18

Starting Rotation 4.18

We get a nine-game slate today for Sunday baseball action and we have two of the best fantasy pitcher on the mound today! Days like this tend to make this article fairly simple and today won’t be much different. The targets are clear and there are even a couple of secondary pitchers that are going to fit nicely into the Starting Rotation 4.18! 

Starting Rotation 4.18 – Cash 

Shane Bieber ($10,000 DK/$11,500 FD) 

There are not many pitchers that I will have zero fear over and Bieber is absolutely one of them. He’s coming off nine innings against the White Sox in which he whiffed 11 hitters and racked up 43.3 DK points. If Cleveland had given him run support in time he would have flirted with 50 for a complete game shutout. For some incredible reason, DK decided to drop this man’s salary by $700. The Reds aren’t striking out a ton as a team at just 21.6% but Bieber is sixth in baseball at a 41.7% K rate. 

It was also encouraging to see Bieber only walk one batter last game after there and four in his first two starts. Only Jacob deGrom has a higher swinging strike rate than Bieber’s 20.3% rate and there’s just so little to pick on here. If there’s anything, I guess it would be Bieber has given up a higher wOBA to RHH but it’s only .270. The xFIP to that side of the plate is still 2.61 and Bieber seeing a price reduction is nonsensical. He’s my top option on the slate and I would think the field agrees. 

Gerrit Cole ($10,400 DK/$11,000 FD)

Another spot where the pitch data may not look fantastic outside of the slide but that’s not a deciding factor. Cole is right with Bieber at a 41.4% K rate and his HR/9 is down at 0.49 after ballooning to 1.73 last season, a career-high. Even the walk rate has come down a bit to 4.3% and so far, Cole hasn’t been bothered by the 52.6% fly-ball rate he’s displaying. It helps that the barrel rate is tiny at 2.6% and hitters aren’t making a ton of contact with a 16.8% swinging strike rate for Cole. Perhaps the best metric for Cole is the difference in lefty bats this year. In 2020, lefties started to do some damage with a .319 wOBA and a 2.70 HR/9. So far through 25 batters faced this year, the wOBA is .070 and he’s yet to give up a bomb to that side of the plate.

What has been super interesting so far is the drop in four-seam usage for Cole. Last season it was at 52.8% and this year it’s at 43.2%. The changeup has been the pitch that he’s using a lot more than last year at 13.7%. Cole has yet to give up a hit with the change and has a .093 xWOBA on it. The 36.4% whiff rate is nothing to sneer at either. He may not throw it often but it’s the fourth-ranked changeup in the league so far this year among starters. About the only reason Bieber is my first option is he is cheaper on DK. I will have a lineup or two with both pitchers and it could yet be the cash route. 

Pablo Lopez ($6,200 DK)

If we can’t fit both aces comfortably, I believe Lopez slides directly into the SP2 position for DK. He’s bringing some serious salary relief to the table and I’m not worried about his last start. He was on the road against the Braves and Lopez has a career ERA over 6.00 on the road. Now he gets back to Miami and inherits quite the spot. First off, the Giants are second in K rate against righty pitching at 29.6% and only carry a .203 average, which is 25th. Lopez should have to face at least five lefty hitters today and he’s carrying a 25.9% K rate to that side of the plate. He’s struck out six of the 18 lefties he’s faced at home so far as well. 

Every strikeout but one for Lopez has come from either the four-seam or the change so far and he’s not using the sinker as much either. That’s great news as it only recorded one strikeout last season through 94 pitches. Lopez has a 43.8% fly-ball rate to lefties but the home park helps take care of that. The Giants do have the best fly ball rate in the majors so far to righties but I’m not sweating one factor when Lopez has K upside under $6,500. 

Starting Rotation 4.18 – GPP

Freddy Peralta ($9,500 DK/$8,500 FD)

Three of the top seven pitchers in K rate in 2021 are on this slate and the player that leads the pack is no Cole nor Bieber. It’s Freddy Peralta, who has been unreal to start the season. He and Corbin Burnes are the only players that have a K rate over 43% and Peralta sits at 47.1%. Now, he’s only GPP for a couple of reasons. First off, the duo of Cole and Bieber will carry the ownership just from name value alone. Secondly, Peralta is second among starters in walk rate at a ghastly 17.7%. Strikeout pitchers inherently can be a little wild but if you’re putting this many runners on base, one swing of the bat can ruin the day. The 100% strand rate won’t stand either. 

What I like about Peralta is the fact he’s leaning more into his slider and backing off the four-seam a bit. Regardless of how electric a fastball is, major league hitters are going to tee it up if you’re throwing it 73.5% of the time like Peralta did last season. His slider has accumulated 14 of his 24 strikeouts, has a .121 xwOBA, and a 60% whiff rate. It shows up in the FanGraphs rating too as Peralta’s is third among starters.

With the Pirates striking out 24% of the time so far, this is a spot that Peralta could potentially match Cole and Bieber for fantasy points. I don’t think it’s likely but if Peralta can score 5-10 more DK at a fraction of the ownership, that’s how you jump thousands in the standings in GPP. 

Honorable Mention – John Means, Aaron Nola but I am very focused on these four pitchers. When we have three massive strikeout options and a great salary-saving option in Lopez, I’m having a very hard time deviating from these four pitchers. 

Gas Can of the Slate – Well, it’s Madison Bumgarner day and he gets another terrible spot. The Nationals have smashed lefty pitching for multiple seasons and lead the league in average so far. They back that up with top-eight marks in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ as well. MadBum is not fooling anyone with a 1.98 HR/9, 11% walk rate, 2.20 WHIP, and an ERA over 11.00 backed up by a 6.22 FIP. The scary part is he’s only giving up a 4.3% barrel rate after 14.9% last year. If that starts to go the other way, lookout. 

Bumgarner is relying on a four-seam and cutter almost 80% of the time and Juan Soto, Josh Harrison, Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman, Josh Bell, and Victor Robles are all positive against the four-seam. Both pitches have an xwOBA over .400 and this spot is crazy dangerous. Turner sits at a wOBA over .600 with a .467 ISO, Zimmerman is at a .382 wOBA and even Soto is at a .375 ISO. There’s honestly not a hitter I wouldn’t consider here. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.18 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!