Are you ready for an exciting Game 4 of the World Series? Our 10/26 DFS picks for MLB will make you ready – to take down the GPPs and win your cash games!
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The projected implied totals have this game about dead even at4.25 runs apiece. The 8.5 total is the highest of the series so far.
A quick word on starting pitching: Patrick Corbin (DK $15,600/$10,400) is worth a look even at his high price for his strikeout upside, but the Astros lineup doesn’t whiff at the rates the Dodgers did, so I’m not nearly as intrigued by his impressive but small-sample 17.58 K/9 rate this postseason. Last night’s winning GPP entries didn’t have any shares of the pitchers, so I’ll be fading both and focusing on adding the right bats. We nailed Victor Robles yesterday and need more of those calls to take down a GPP.
I’ll mix in some shares of Corbin and Jose Urquidy (DK $11,700/$7,800) who’s got some upside but will pitch about 4.0 IP maximum – since he hasn’t reached 50 pitches in either of his postseason outings. Those Urquidy outings have been effective (16.62 K/9, 2.08 ERA, 2.98 FIP in 4.1 IP), but he’d likely need to exceed 12 DK points to make him a viable GPP option, so I’ll have limited exposure.
Let’s get tothe bats.
I’m partial to George Springer, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez on Houston for their ability to hit Corbin’s main offerings of fastballs and sliders, but since Alvarez sits, we’ll use Michael Brantley. Once again, I’ll have more shares of the Astros in GPPs than Nats hitters. For Washington, I’ll be using larger shares of Soto, Rendon and Eaton, who has multiple hits in three straight games and is almost as expensive as Jose Altuve.
Soto scuffled abit at the plate last night, but he draws a perfectly exploitable matchupagainst a hittable Astros opener and RHP-only bullpen. I’m not going to fadehim in this spot.
Rendon destroys fastballs and remains a key part of the Natslineup. He’s just too expensive (the most expensive in the Showdown, actually) touse in every lineup, and there’s better value out there on the Houston sidethis game. But he hasn’t homered since the Dodgers series, so he’s due.
Eaton has multiple hits in there straight and we listed him as avalue play along with Robles. Both were in the winning GPP last night. Whilethe price has come up for the Nats’ two-hitter, he had a .152 ISO vs. RHPs thisseason and he’s on a hot streak – and that’s plenty of reason to keep usinghim.
If Kurt Suzuki sits, this is a no-brainer value to mix in. Gomes will be guaranteed ABs at his home park, and despite the fact he likes to hit lefties better (.217 ISO vs. LHPs in 2019) than righties, he’s still sporting a .151 ISO against RHPs – an acceptable figure at this low price. He’s not a must-play, but he’s worth using in GPPs for his power and guaranteed ABs if Suzuki is unavailable. I still like Robles too, but he’s expensive now.
Springer is starting to heat up and make things happenoffensively. He reached base three times last night and had a pair of SBs, andhe matches up extremely well against LHP Patrick Corbin. I think Corbin couldrocked from the first pitch he throws, and Springer has hit 36 leadoff homeruns in his career already.
He’s cheaper than Adam Eaton now. Let that sink in, then plug himinto all your cash games and most of your GPPs. Yesterday’s 0-5 showingfeatured just one K, and he destroys LHPs, so I’m far from fading him.
Altuve is a fine play in GPPs and his price has come down. We can probably build a few lineups stacking the Astros 1-4 hitters at these prices, and filling in with value plays from Washington and/or some low-cost relievers.
The price on Brantley just refuses to come up, and he’s coming offtwo straight two-hit games – last night’s being the best of the series so far.He does come out of the lineup in the later innings for a defensive replacement,but he can do enough damage in his first three ABs to neutralize that.
CPT – A. Bregman ($13,500)
UTIL – G. Springer ($9,800)
UTIL – J. Altuve ($9,400)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($6,800)
UTIL – J. Reddick ($4,200)
UTIL – Y. Gomes (5,800)
CPT – J. Soto ($16,200)
UTIL – G. Springer ($9,800)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($6,800)
UTIL – M. Maldonado ($4,000)
UTIL – A. Eaton ($9,200)
UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,800)
CPT – Y. Gomes ($8,700)
UTIL – P. Corbin ($10,400)
UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,800)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($6,800)
UTIL – J. Soto ($10,800)
UTIL – A. Eaton ($9,200)
CPT – G. Springer ($14,700)
UTIL – J. Urquidy ($7,800)
UTIL – R. Osuna ($4,000)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($6,800)
UTIL – A. Bregman ($9,000)
UTIL – R. Zimmerman ($7,400)
You know the routine – no pitchers to consider so we can have somefun with the hitters!
MVP (2x) – Bregman ($7,500)
All-Star (1.5x) – G. Springer ($9,500)
UTIL – Eaton ($7,000)
UTIL – R. Chirinos ($4,500)
UTIL – Brantley ($6,000)
MVP (2x) – Soto ($9,000)
All-Star (1.5x) – Rendon ($8,000)
UTIL – Gomes ($4,000)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($6,000)
UTIL – Bregman ($7,500)
MVP (2x) – Springer ($9,500)
All-Star (1.5x) – Rendon ($8,000)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($6,000)
UTIL – V. Robles ($5,000)
UTIL – R. Zimmerman ($6,500)
Goal 0.50 – 2x: We can get ahead of the odds here and bank on one of these three going deep on Saturday night in Game 4. Getting 4x for two homers isn’t a bad get either.
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With the Astros up 3-1, the Yankees are on the brink of elimination in the ALCS. We’ve got your 10/18 DFS picks for the featured Showdown contests.
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Astros ace JustinVerlander has the edge in upside and in most scenarios will go deeper into thisgame than Yankees LHP James Paxton – though the Yankees have a slight edge in theimplied totals. You don’t need both pitchers in this one, and I’ll likely have someexposure to both starters, even with Paxton considerably cheaper.
There’s always the possibility that Verlander throws one of his trademark gems against the Bronx Bombers on their home turf, but the righthander’s vulnerability to the long ball makes him a risky option at such a high price. The veteran hurler – a future Hall of Famer who’s posted the highest K/9 rates of his entire 15-year career in 2018 (12.20 K/9) and 2019 (12.11 K/9) – has struggled a bit this postseason but struck out 12 batters in six innings as recently as Sept. 28. If you’re building Verlander lineups with him at Captain, the implication is that you’ll be fading Yankee bats, so you’ll probably need to employ some creativity if you also want the big Houston bats.
The price is right, and the upside is there, but Paxton hasn’tgiven us his best so far this postseason. He has, however, struck out 11batters in 7 IP, and although the Astros don’t whiff all that often, they’lllikely come out aggressive at the plate with a 3-1 lead in the series. IfPaxton’s stuff is on point, he could easily post double-digit Ks over 5-6innings of work.
Who’s going to be the hero of Game 5, if not one of the startingpitchers? Here are my top hitter picks for the 10/18 DFS Showdown.
If he’d come up big with the bases loaded against Ryan Pressly in the fifth inning last night, he’d probably be the odds-on favorite for World Series MVP heading into Game 5, but the 22-year-old is still looking to bolster his batting resume with a standout performance in Yankee Stadium. He’s still slashing .345/.406/.793 this postseason, with the only knock being his relatively futility against Verlander thus far (1-for-12 with 5 Ks).
Torres hasn’t had much success against Verlander, but LeMahieuis 5-for-15 career with a homer and just two Ks. He’s got Aaron Judge hitting rightbehind him and should get some pitches to hit as the Yankees leadoff hitter onFriday night.
He parked one into the left field stands last night and is massively underpriced – even in this difficult matchup against Verlander, who has owned him (2-for-19, 5 Ks). Gary is still pretty scary, though, and he’ll be a chalky value play in this Showdown. It’ll be interesting to see if Aaron Boone moves him up a little further in the lineup tonight.
Last night’s homer – Springer’s 13th career postseason HR in 166 at-bats – was a powerful statementby the leadoff man that he’s ready for another big night in Game 5, and hismatchup against Paxton and subsequent relievers should give him plenty of chancesto make his mark. The price is high, but he’ll be the main Astros hitter I havein my builds.
Like Springer, Correa hit his second homer of the postseasonand the 10th of his postseason career. Springer and Correa form quitethe power tandem, as that was sixth time those two have homered in the samegame in the postseason – an all-time MLB record, according to a tweet by STATS.Correa has good numbers vs. LHP (138 career wRC+, .371 wOBA) and Paxton in particular(9-for-22 career).
It’ll be tough to fit in Altuve at the Captain spot, but he’scertainly viable in Astros-heavy lineups that fade Verlander. He’s slashing.351/.385/.730 this postseason with four homers and seven runs scored in just39 plate appearances.
Note: Robinson Chirinos may sit after he got banged up last night behind the plate, so stay tuned to who’s donning the “tools of ignorance” for Houston tonight.
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Captain (1.5x) – G. Torres ($12,300)
UTIL – J. Paxton ($8,600)
UTIL – LeMahieu ($9,000)
UTIL – Gregorius ($5,400)
UTIL – Sanchez ($5,200)
UTIL – Springer ($9,400)
Captain (1.5x) – Verlander ($18,000)
UTIL – Correa ($8,400)
UTIL – Reddick ($4,800)
UTIL – Springer ($9,400)
UTIL – Sanchez ($5,200)
UTIL – Maldonado ($4,000)
Captain (1.5x) – Springer ($14,100)
UTIL – Correa ($8,400)
UTIL – Brantley ($6,800)
UTIL – Gregorius ($5,400)
UTIL – Sanchez ($5,200)
UTIL – Altuve ($10,000)
Without pitchers in the player pool, there’s a need for evenmore variance in your lineup building. Try to leave a few bucks on the table inthe larger contests and don’t worry about having the most expensive player inthe MVP slot.
MVP (2x) – LeMahieu ($7,500)
All-Star (1.5x) – Springer ($9,000)
UTIL – Alvarez ($6,500)
UTIL – Torres ($7,000)
UTIL – Hicks ($4,500)
MVP (2x) – Springer ($9,000)
All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve ($9,500)
UTIL – Maldonado ($4,000)
UTIL – Sanchez ($5,500)
UTIL – Brantley ($7,000)
MVP (2x) – Correa ($7,500)
All-Star (1.5x) – LeMahieu ($7,500)
UTIL – Sanchez ($5,500)
UTIL – Torres ($7,000)
UTIL – Alvarez ($6,500)
Verlander would normally be a pretty safe bet to reach eight Ks, but the more the Yankees see of the veteran, the more they’ll provide excellent ABs. I expect Verlander to challenge hitters in Game 5 and as a result, there will be more balls put in play early in counts.
We’re also counting on Paxton giving us his best stuff. As I mentioned before, he’s whiffed 11 batters in 7 IP this postseason, and I expect him to go a little deeper into this game than he did in Game 2.
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It’s 10/13 DFS and we’ve got another ALCS game on tap tonight – let’s get right to the MLB picks for the Showdown contest on DraftKings.
The game: New York Yankees at Houston Astros (8:08 p.m. EST)
General strategy: Justin Verlander is super expensive, and theYankees hitters looked good last night in just about all their ABS against Greinke,so I don’t think I’ll be using JV much at all in my DK builds. I’m primarilyconcerned with using Paxton as contrarian and getting Gleyber Torres and DidiGregorius in all my lineups.
Pitchers: Using Paxton or Verlander at the top spot makesit tough to get in decent bats from either side, so that’s not my preferred routehere.
Didi hasfour hits in his last seven ABs including a home run, and he’s driven in sixruns during that two-game span. He’s inexpensive and using him at CPT gives youflexibility at the UTIL spots.
If you’re looking for a contrarian CPT play on the Yankees who’s not intimidated by Verlander, consider LeMahieu – who’s electric in the leadoff spot and has all kinds of upside. The price is a little high but if he’s not my CPT, he’s in one of my UTIL spots.
Big spends: Alex Bregman ($10,400) and Jose Altuve ($9,800)
Pick yourpoison here. Both Bregman and Altuve are proven postseason performers and theypile up the extra base hits. They’re a combined 17-for-58 off Paxton, thoughAltuive has taken him deep twice in 30 AB. I’ll have exposure to one or both.
Big Spend Pivots: Aaron Judge ($8,600) or George Springer ($10,000)
Mid-range 1: Aledmys Diaz ($7,400) – He may get the start versus Paxton.
Mid-range 2: Gleyber Torres ($7,600) – The price hasn’t caught up to his tear at the dish.
Value 1: Brett Gardner ($7,000) – Fierce ABs and plenty of upside.
Value 2: Gio Urshela ($5,600) – Another talented player who’s often under the radar.
GPP punts: Martin Maldonado ($4,000)
CPT (1.5x) – D. Gregorius ($9,600)
UTIL – J.Altuve
UTIL – DJ LeMahieu
UTIL – J.Paxton
UTIL – G.Torres
UTIL – M. Maldonado
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We’ve reached the decisive Game 5 for both NLDS matchups on 10/9 DFS — here are my picks for the two-game slate and the featured Showdown.
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The games: St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves (5:02 p.m.), Washington Nationals atLos Angeles Dodgers (8:37 p.m.)
I’m focused on the home favorite for SP1 here – since home-fieldadvantage in the MLB playoffs is a real and palpable thing. The DK pricing is,thankfully, soft enough for us to find plenty of big bats. For SP2, I’ll have alittle of both Jack Flaherty (consistent value at his price) and MikeFoltynewicz, who was excellent in his start on Oct. 4. Startingpitching has been really great in the postseason thus far, so youreally can’t go wrong with any combo.
Buehler has the highest upside of any pitcher on the slate, evenif his leash is a little shorter than Strasburg’s. For the $400 discount, he’smy SP1 – and I’m fine with him being chalky.
Flahery has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since the All-star break (his .189 wOBA in the second half is almost beyond belief) and he went 117 pitches in his last start, which tells me the Cards are going to let him win or lose this thing.
Molina was thehero on Monday for the Cards, and while he’s back on the road for decuisiveGame 5, this veteran has had success against Folty in a limited sample (7-for-18,.432 wOBA with a HR) Pivot: Brian McCann (DK $3,200)
He came through for us on Monday so I’m going back to the well inGame 5. Goldy is one of the best fantasy assets in baseball over the past fiveyears and he’s a complete offensive player who can rack up the XBH. The pricehas come up a bit but he’s worth the extra expense. Pivot: Freddie Freeman
Muncy is having an electric postseason with a couple homers andthree games scoring over 20 DK points. He’s eligible at 1B if you’re stacking Dodgersand want to use Gavin Lux at second base for the discount. Pivot: Gavin Lux
I’m not a hugebeliever in BvP, but a small sample analysis within the small sample frameworkof the playoffs makes some sense. The track record against Strasburg and RHPsin general is a good one, and Turner((142 wRC+ and .294 ISO this season) has homered in his last twogames this postseason. Pivot: Anthony Rendon/Tommy Edman
There’s plenty of risk starting Seageragainst Strasburg, but he’s an exciting young player who came alive in Septemberwith a .304/.337/.646 slash line, seven homersand 23 RBI during the final month, and he has a clear affinity for playoffbaseball. He’s been getting hits but hasn’t posted the big lien yet. Today couldbe the day he breaks through with some XBH. Pivot: Paul DeJong
I won’t have to much exposure to the Nationals in this game, butone player who’s worth the risk is Soto – who had a monster Game 3 and appearsready for the big stage of a Game 5. If the Nats pull this out, he’s going tohave a lot to do with it. Pivot: Clay Bellinger
There isn’t a hotter hitter in the NL postseason than Ozuna, whohas multi-hit games in all of the NLDS tilts thus far and is coming off atwo-homer game in Game 4. He’ll be extremely chalky on this two-game slate becausehis game logs will attract plenty of attention from the masses – but you shouldhave some exposure to this slugger who hit 31 homers in 2019 and now has a.275/.341/.650 slash line against the Braves in 2019 if you count thepostseason. Pivot: Ronald Acuna
We need to find some value somewhere, so Joyce fits the bill if he’sin the starting lineup. If he’s not, you’ll have a difficult decision to make –since it could be difficult to find a viable DK OF under $3,500. Pivot: DexterFowler (DK $3,900)
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Hitters only – so we can focus on the Dodgers bats we like andplay one or two Nats hitters with upside. We’ll slap the modestly priced JustinTurner in the MVP spot, since many will be drawn to the higher priced bats at 2x.
MVP (2x) – J. Turner ($7,000) – If he homers, he’ll pay off
All-Star (1.5x) – T. Turner ($8,500) – His ability to steal basesat will could be huge today.
UTIL – M. Muncy ($8,000)
UTIL – C. Seager ($6,500)
UTIL – G. Lux ($5,000)
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It may be beneficial to play one or two Dodgers and/or Nats batswe like, somehow fit in Buehler and pick an off-the-wall bench player on eitherteam to come through with a big hit late in the game.
Captain (1.5x) – J. Turner ($12,000)
UTIL – W. Buehler ($11,000)
UTIL – G. Lux ($4,200)
UTIL – M. Muncy ($9,000)
UTIL – J. Soto ($8,800)
UTIL – B. Dozier ($5,000)
We’re in the heart of the MLB postseason and looking at some 10/5 DFS picks for the two-game slate and featured Showdown on DraftKings (9:07 EST). Let’s take in some data and find the gems on this awesome Saturday of MLB DFS action!
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The games: Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees (5:07 p.m. EST) & Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros (9:07 p.m. EST)
Starting the right combo of two pitchers could give you a 20-40 point lead over the wrong combo of two starters, and there’s some huge value plays on this slate.
For the most dominant pitcher on the slate, you’ll be spending top dollar, though Cole (who struck out over 300 batters in 2019) is much more affordable on DK. With his K/9 upside, he’s got the easiest avenue to 25+ DK points.
It’s hard to trust Snell against this dynamic and powerful Astros lineup. They hit for contact and power and sport a 131 wRC+ against LHPs. He’s super risky even at this price and Astros hitters have had plenty of success against him. He’s also probably not going to go past 2-3 IP, given his short appearances in his previous three starts/opens.
Tanaka usually pitches well in big games, and he’s been areliable starter in the postseason for the Yankees the past several years (3-2,1.50 ERA/ 3.49 FIP, .162 BAA and 22.3 K%). I like that he’s carrying about a 4-to-1K/BB rate after the All-Star break, even if there’s a chance he gets blown up fora couple HRs early. That would be a disaster for us, but his pivot – devoid of playoffexperience and still a veritable neophyte at the big-league level, is evenriskier.
Dobnak’s regular season numbers look a bit like Tanaka’spostseason stats – so he’s worth a look. But the Yankees were having somepretty good at-bats last night and I’m just not too interested in a play thisrisky.
Top 3:
Bottom 3:
If Maldonado gets the start, he’s probably the cheapest starting bat on the slate and makes perfect sense as a contrarian play the obvious options of Gary Sanchez and Travis d’Arnaud, who’s got four hits in four career AB (with a homer) against Gerrit Cole. Pivots: Sanchez for power upside, d’Arnaud for BvP fanatics.
The most expensive 1B is still a bargain at this price, and he’s got multi-homer upside in Yankee Stadium. The Parrot walker has a 121 wRC+ against right-handers this season. Pivot: Yuri Gurriel (1B/3B) at just $4,200 on DK.
We’re still on track with our basic builds of Astros/Yankees and the price is depressed on DK. I’m not going to overthink this one, plugging in one of the best hitters of the past decade, postseason included. Pivot: Jonathan Schoop ($3,500 on DK) if he’s starting.
The Yankees leadoff hitter connected last night and always give you a chance with his high contact rates and ability to punch one the other way. He drew some surprising comparisons to Derek Jeter in an eye-opening deep dive before he even played a game for the Yankees, and I’ve been a believer from day one. Pivot: Alex Bregman ($4,300 on FD), Gurriel on DK.
Bregman launched 41 homers this year in an MVP-type season, including six in his final 13 games. He’s exceptional against LHPs (205 wRC+ and .473 wOBA) and there’s no reason to leave him out of your builds. Pivot: Gleyber Torres ($4,000 on DK), Didi Gregorius ($3,200 on FD).
Opposing teams have been pitching the sluggers carefully this season, and guys like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton may only see a couple mashable pitches over multiple ABs. This has allowed Gardner to bulk up his power numbers (28 HRs and .253 ISO) this season and produce at unexpected levels. He’s inexpensive and will be chalky, but he’s a must-have in your lineup builds. Pivot: Jake Marisnick (DK $3,000, FD $2,300) – I’ll have some lineups with both Gardner and Marisnick so I can fit all these other big bats.
Getting Stanton at this price seems like highway robbery, and while he’s probably going to exit early for a pinch runner or defensive replacement, he can get a lot done in 2-3 ABs. Watching his ABs last night, he looks good and is going to make most of my GPP lineups. Pivot: Michael Brantley (DK $3,800, FD $3,500).
I need some Twins in here and I’m most interested in Kepler, who’s plate approach and batted ball data seems tailor-made for Yankee Stadium. He’s a pull hitter and Tanaka could easily serve up a dinger if he leaves one in Kepler’s wheelhouse. Pivot: Eddie Rosario (DK $4,500, FD $3,600).
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It’s going to be tough to use Cole as CPT and use allprobable starting players, but you can do it.
Captain (1.5x) – G. Cole ($18,000)
UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($8,400)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,800)
UTIL – T. d’Arnaud ($5,800)
UTIL – J. Marisnick ($5,600)
UTIL – J. Wendle ($4,000)
I‘m more inclined to use Cole at UTIL and fit in a studAstros bat at CPT (with d’Arnaud as my lone TB bat in the Altuve build):
Captain (1.5x) – A. Bregman ($14,700) or J. Altuve ($13,500)
UTIL – G. Cole ($12,000)
UTIL – J. Marisnick ($5,600)
UTIL – T. d’Arnaud ($5,800)
UTIL – M. Maldonado ($5,000)
UTIL – M. Straw ($6,800) or M. Brantley ($7,800)
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Hitters only, with Springer or Brantley determining if it’sMaldonado or Gurriel in the last spot.
Sample FD lineup:
MVP (2x) – A. Bregman ($9,000)
All-Star (1.5x) – J. Altuve ($8,000)
UTIL – T. d’Arnaud ($4,000)
UTIL – G. Springer ($9,500)/M.Brantley ($7,500)
UTIL – M. Maldonado ($4,000)/Y. Gurriel ($6,500)
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