It was quite the day in the Starting Rotation on Thursday! We helped a member with a takedown and really nailed the majority of the picks. Even though Kevin Gausman wasn’t anything special, he still scored 18 DK. The only pitcher that scored under 16 was Brandon Woodruff and we’ll take that every night. Tonight is a good deal trickier but we do have a ton of options to pick from for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.21.
He was covered in Picks and Pivots today, so you can read up on him right here.
Pitch Data – FB – 9th SL – 13th CB – 10th
This would not normally be a cash pick but the options are fairly limited tonight. Fried draws a tough matchup for a lefty pitcher against the Phillies but he has come through against them once already for 23.7 DK points. He’s upped the swinging strike rate to 12.9% and the overall K rate is at 25.4%. Hitters simply have not gotten the ball in the air or hit it hard at 21.1% and 32.4%, respectively.
Philly should throw out seven RHH against Fried but that actually might help the K upside just a bit. He only whiffs LHH at a 9.1% rate compared to 29.5% to the right side. Fried is one of the better young pitchers in the league and I’ll ride with the talent tonight.
*Note* Bryce Harper is not in the lineup tonight, which certainly doesn’t hurt Fried at all.
Pitch Data – FB – 8th SL – 15th CH – 30th
This is another one that I might not normally love for cash, but it’s always a slate by slate kind of deal. The A’s absolutely have some power vs LHP and that’s a concern. They also lead the league in K rate to LHP at 29.1%. In the first start of the season, Heaney racked up 19.3 DK vs these A’s on just 64 pitches. His last start he threw 101 against the Dodgers, a much better offense.
If Heaney uses that changeup a little more often, it could really give the A’s fits. The swinging strike rate is more than respectable at 12.4%, as is the 24.5% K rate overall. We don’t love an 8.8% walk rate but with Oakland leading the league in strikeouts to LHP, the good should more than outweigh the bad in this spot.
Just like Nola, he’s been covered today. I think on DK, he’s very close to a cash option at his price especially with the options behind Nola not the prototypical picks.
Pitch Data – FB – 5th SL – 5th CT – 17th CB – 27th
Buehler is likely the most talented pitcher on the slate overall but there’s no way getting around it – he’s bee awful this year. In four starts, he’s yet to cross 18 DK points and the 5.43 xFIP supports the 5.21 ERA. The K rate is down to 21.3% and the walk rate has skyrocketed to 11.3%. Also, the HR/9 is a massive 2.37 right now and that’s not like Buehler at all.
Eventually, he’s going to snap out of this funk and we want to be on the first big game. His price hasn’t come down at all so it’s not like he’s easy to play. Perhaps the Rockies on the road can bring that first massive game. They rank 20th or worse in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+ on the road to RHP. Additionally, the 25.5% K rate should favor Buehler. It’s a matter of time before he turns things around.
Pitch Data – FB – 29th SL – 12th CH – 23rd
Houser is a touch overpriced on DK but we can’t deny the spot for him. The pitch count doesn’t appear to be a concern with 87, 77 and 86 in the past three and he’s scored 14.9 DK against these Pirates once already on 68 pitches. Pittsburgh is approaching 26% in K rate and are bottom five across the board in everything we look at. There’s not much else to write about past the Pirates being the second-worst team to the fastball and Houser uses that pitch 65% of the time.
Pitch Data – FB – 11th CB – 17th CH – 9th
I always have a soft spot for McCullers and the pitch data is a little bit better than I thought it might be. The change is the pitch he uses the least, so that helps. We may not love the 45.3% hard hit rate but the 18.9% fly ball rate is beyond excellent. That ranks third among starters to this point.
McCullers doesn’t have an impressive ERA at 5.47 but the 3.95 xFIP suggests that positive regression is on the way. San Diego absolutely has a good offense and doesn’t strike out that much at 21%. The BABIP to RHH is pretty high at .323 so it should be expected to come down as we go. While this isn’t the greatest spot McCullers will ever get, he should be low-owned and he has the ability to shut down any team in the majors on any given night.
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
We’re back after a pretty successful day one of the Starting Rotation! We hit pretty well on six of eight pitchers mentioned. The only two misses were Ryan Castellani (Coors, am I right?) and Julio Urias. Still, a 75% hit rate would be excellent for the season and we’ll happily take that. Hopefully it helped you yesterday to pick some pitching. The slate for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.20 has quite a few big names so let’s get after it and have a great night again!
*Note* A quick reminder that pitch data is the opposition’s rank vs that pitch. Also, a pitcher has to throw it more than 10% of the time for me to list any pitch.
This will be the case for a couple more days while I cover Picks and Pivots, but these pitchers have been covered. There’s no need to repeat it here.
Pitch Data – FB – 19th SL – 14th CB – 26th
Using pitch data for the Cardinals is a bit tough considering they’ve played all of 13 games, but that’s the data at hand. Gray gets a great matchup by the numbers with the Cards in the bottom 10 in OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. Additionally, they are whiffing 25.1% of the time vs RHP. Maybe that’s partially due to lack of playing time, but it’s still something Gray can take advantage of.
For his part, Gray is boasting a 37.2% K rate through his 30.2 IP already. His fly ball rate is phenomenal at 23.1%, 13th best among starters. The swinging strike rate of 12.3% would be a career high and supports the gaudy overall K rate. There’s no real reason to not use Bieber in cash, but if you just desperately want money for bats, Gray is certainly safe.
Pitch Data – FB – 30th SL – 19th CB – 17th
I will not be using Kershaw really at all tonight, but he’s likely fine for cash. We aren’t going to see vintage Kershaw very often any more but the 28.1% K rate with a 13.6% swinging strike rate is certainly nothing to complain about. Just like we talked about yesterday, Seattle is a sweetheart matchup.
They rank bottom-five in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, OPS and OBP so there’s not a ton of threat on paper. The 26.1% K rate they have is the fifth-worst as well. Urias wasn’t able to take advantage yesterday but Kershaw is still a far different animal. He should provide a solid floor, even if I’m not particularly on him myself.
Pitch Data – FB – 28th CB – 11th CH – 15th
The GPP options for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.20 are interesting. I will likely be very heavy on the Bieber/Lamet combo but let’s get different. Berrios can be joy or nightmare to roster on any given night. He’s had a rough year so far with a 5.92 ERA and a 5.03 FIP. The K rate has gone down for him to just 21.6% and the HR/9 is 1.48, highest of his career. You’re likely asking why in the world I’m talking about him and he main answer is simple – Brewers.
With Milwaukee sitting in the top three in K rate at 28.1%, the K spot can’t get much better. Berrios is still generating an 11.1% swinging strike rate, so he has the ability. In theory, it’s a good run prevention spot as well. Milwaukee is not above 26th in OBP, OPS, ISO, wOBA or wRC+. This is an offense we want to pick on, even with unreliable pitchers like Berrios. His price will leave him virtually un-rostered on this slate.
Pitch Data – FB – 21st SL – 11th CH – 9th
We’re not going far for perhaps the ultimate risk/reward option on this slate. Yes, the Twins are a very dangerous offense. They are second in home runs to righty pitching this year behind only the Dodgers. With that power approach comes strikeouts, with the eighth-highest rate at 25.4%.
Woodruff’s main weapon is his strikeout rate at 29% and he leans on his fastball mix over 60% of the time (sinker and four-seam). With that being the worst pitch type for the Twins, Woodruff could have sneaky appeal here. He’s held LHH to a .239 wOBA and the Twins are projected to have six in their lineup tonight, which would help him. Just treat carefully, as Woodruff has not made it past 4.1 IP in his past two starts.
Pitch Data – FB – 25th SF – 8th CH – 23rd
This is a super interesting spot for Gausman and is the lowest I’m going on DK. The Angels are good vs the splitter, but that’s a little used pitching general across the majors. I’m not sure reading too far into that is a great idea. Gausman is still getting a big 14.5% swinging strike rate, generally backing up his 31.8% K rate to this point. His 4.21 ERA actually looks a little unlucky. Both the FIP and xFIP sit at 3.10 and 3.15 respectively.
The Angels don’t strike out a ton by any stretch. The 21.7% K rate is one of the 10 best in the league. Likewise, the OBP and OPS is top 10 so this is definitely not a dream spot for Gausman. One of the keys for Gausman is his L/R splits. LHH have tagged him for a .392 wOBA and a .956 OPS. RHH only have a .242 wOBA and are whiffing almost 37% of the time. The Angels lineup projects to be five RHH. The lefties do have a combined .356 wOBA vs RHP. If Gausman can navigate that side and keep the Mike Trout/Anthony Rendon combo in check, he could pay off his price.
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
Welcome into the first edition of the Starting Rotation article! The goal here is to break down starting pitchers for every MLB slate, dividing them into Cash Game and GPP options! If you read Three StriKes, you kind of know what I look for here. The advanced metrics, pitch data and salary are all going to be used here and everyday. Let’s dig into MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.19 and see which pitchers we’re going to chase tonight!
*Note* The number after the pitch type is opponent’s rank vs said pitch. So if there’s a 20 after FB, the team the pitcher is facing is 20th vs the fastball.
Gerrit Cole/Jacob deGrom/Pablo Lopez – Since I’m covering Picks and Pivots, I already dug into the big two aces and Lopez. There’s no reason to subject you to the same info here.
Pitch Data – FB – 29th CH – 26th SL- 23rd CB -16th
Urias has not featured much strikeout upside yet and the price is inflated to my eyes. However, I also feel pretty good about he’s not going to get lit up in this spot. Urias leans heavily and his fastball/changeup mix at about 80% this season. The Mariners struggle badly against those pitches so we have one big check to Urias.
Unsurprisingly, Seattle is a top-eight offense in K rate to LHP. This could help Urias improve on his current 15.3% K rate. The swinging strike rate of 11.8% would certainly lean you towards the stuff is good enough to get K’s eventually. What we don’t like is the 50% hard hit rate and the 40.9% fly ball rate. Seattle again helps cover that issue as they are 20th in fly ball rate and 15th in hard hit rate. The Mariners are also dead last in average, wOBA and OPS so Urias can give you six strong. The ceiling just might not be there with his salary.
Chris Paddack
Pitch Data – FB – 26th CH – 15th CB – 19th
The ERA for Paddack wouldn’t make him look very safe, sitting at 4.91. However, the 4.07 xFIP looks much better and there’s only been one rough start. The biggest issue for Paddack is his fastball. That pitch is getting mashed so far. The fastball has given up a .333 average, .521 ISO and six bombs surrendered already. With the Rangers a bottom-five team vs that pitch, it seems like a good spot for it to get right.
The other big factor going fo Paddack is he continues to see pretty extreme splits at home and on the road. This trend has been there his whole career so far, with a 3.06 ERA at home this year. The K rate goes up, the HR/9 goes down… he just loves home cooking. Texas is bottom-five in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, ISO and OBP vs RHP. Paddack under $8,000 should be able to hit value in cash games. He and Lopez are as low as I’m going.
*Note* Casey Mize for the Tigers is set to make his debut. He’s a highly touted impact prospect, but remember – debuts are a total grab bag. He’s one of the most volatile pitchers on the slate and not in the easiest matchup to start. I would only have exposure with 20 or more lineups.
Pitch Data – FB- 15th SL – 9th CB – 17th
You always want to find some different pitching and we have some good options for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.19. Lynn continues to be a strikeout pitcher all of the sudden and improved to 29.8% this season. Lynn has only given up 27.4% hard contact and has an 11.9% swinging strike rate. Both sides of the plate are under a .200 wOBA against him so far as well but The Padres are a dangerous offense. They do have top 10 marks in wOBA and ISO but Lynn is a machine. He’s been over 100 pitches every start, which is a huge advantage in this day and age. Lynn should be overlooked with bigger names on the slate and with a tougher spot.
Pitch Data – FB – 5th CB – 1st
I’m almost always driving the Glasnow Bandwagon and today is really no different. To say it’s been a rough start is an understatement. Glasnow has a 7.04 ERA, a 13.7% walk rate and a 1.76 HR/9. He’s still averaging 12 DK points through all of that because he’s striking out over 37% of the hitters he’s facing.
Much like Paddack, his fastball is the issue right now. He’s seen it give up a .277 ISO and a .319 average. That will not continue, nor will his .424 BABIP and his 65.8% strand rate. The xFIP of 3.24 tells the story much more for Glasnow and he’s a major positive regression candidate. With DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge all out of the Yankee lineup, this could be the start Glasnow puts it together.
Pitch Data – FB – 17th SL – 6th CB – 20th CH – 12th
It’s time to get a little nuts. Castellani has been pretty useful in his 8.2 IP in the majors this year. He’s got two starts of 13+ DK and got his pitch count up to 88 this past start. With the small sample size caveat, his K rate is 31.3% and the FIP and xFIP are both under 3.75. His ERA is 1.04 but that’s obviously not here for long. If you took this matchup out of Coors, it’s not really that bad.
Houston doesn’t strike out a ton to RHP at just 21.2%, seventh-best in the league. The flip side to that is they’re no higher than 24th in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, OPS or average. We typically just pass over pitchers in Coors but the price is so low, this is a worthwhile risky punt that could sink you or skyrocket you tonight.
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
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