Mastering Arbitrage Sports Betting: Developing a Winning Strategy in the US Sports Betting Market Jason Mezrahi 11 months ago
Mastering Arbitrage Sports Betting: Developing a Winning Strategy in the US Sports Betting Market Jason Mezrahi 11 months ago
MLB MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.30 Adam Strangis 4 years ago written by Adam Strangis MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.30 Well we can start right off the bat by being very happy pitching is FAR better on paper than yesterday. Frankly, Saturday was a tire fire and it was when we first opened up the slate. Sunday looks light years better and is way more exciting. There’s a few options at seemingly every tier, including at the top today so let’s get after it in MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.30! Cash Game Options Kenta Maeda Pitch Data – SL – 25th CH – 12th FB – 2nd Maeda also throws in a curveball and a cutter for fun, but not over 4% for either pitch. I assumed one of the biggest changes for Maeda this season was the Twins letting him pitch deep into games. He’s averaging about six innings per start. Last year with the Dodgers, it was 5.8 which is surprising. The biggest change is the K and BB rates, which have gone up and down respectively. Maeda’s 2.21 ERA is backed up by a 2.59 FIP and a 2.86 xFIP as well. It’s quite nice to see Maeda getting a 15.7% swinging strike rate, which is the highest of his career. He’s also striking out RHH at a 35.4% clip and the Tigers are projected to have six in the lineup today. The pitch data matchup is surprisingly mediocre, but this is a spot where the talent of Maeda should come through. Detroit still leads MLB in K rate to RHP and we shouldn’t overthink this one. Blake Snell Pitch Data – FB – 24th CH – 24th CB – 18th Now that Snell has worked his pitch count up, we can count on him in cash and he’s coming off back to back starts of 90+ pitches. He’s struck out 12 over the past 10.2 IP and the K rate overall is 33.3%, identical to last season. Snell has even cut the walks down just a bit at 7.3%, which is a career-low. The swinging strike rate is a bit low for him at 14.7% but that’s more than respectable overall. Miami sits at the third highest K rate to LHP at 28% and are 26th or worse in OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. Snell has a 3.04 ERA that is almost perfectly matched by the xFIP at 3.05 (FIP is 4.07 but that doesn’t sound alarm bells). He’s really rounding into form and is slightly underpriced for his current pitch count. Brandon Woodruff Pitch Data – FB – 30th SL – 15th CH – 25th One of the better pitch data matchups on the board today, especially since Woodruff throws the fastball 65% of the time. I initially thought about putting Woodruff in GPP. He’s had a small run of not going further than five innings in three of his last four starts. Then I remembered he faces the Pirates and he moved into cash consideration pretty easily. The last time Woodruff faced the Buccos, he racked up 10 strikeouts and a season-best 37 DK points. I can’t guarantee that result today but it’s not out of the realm of possibilities. His swinging strike rate is 12.9%, a career-high and the overall K rate is 27.3%. Woodruff also whiffs both sides of the plate relatively equally so the splits aren’t a big concern. Five of the projected Pirates starters have a K rate of 23.7% or higher and the price is right for Woodruff. GPP Options Dane Dunning Pitch Data – FB – 11th SL – 17th I had thoughts of Dunning in cash, but that might be too much of a risk to take. The price is just so low for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.30. He is less expensive than right about 55 hitters today, so the temptation is severe. Dunning was a bit of a mixed bag in his first start against the Tigers. He whiffed seven but gave up three earned over 4.1 IP. That was still worth 14.2 DK and is a home run from a hitter. You don’t get pitchers this cheap, especially ones that actually could strike out hitters. The Royals are a different matchup as far as K rate than Detroit, sitting at 23.6%. They are 20th or worse in OBP, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ so there is potential from that end. Dunning was a top-five prospect for the White Sox last year so there’s some pedigree involved here. The 23.3% swinging strike rate is intriguing, although the 18.2% barrel rate is scary. The bottom line is Dunning opens up whichever offense you want, so this is a risk worth looking at. Luis Castillo Pitch Data – FB – 18th CH – 14th SL – 29th It’s hard to say use Castillo over Snell given each matchup, but that makes Castillo a prime GPP target is Snell is much more popular. We know that the Cubs are a dangerous offense, sitting in the top 12 in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, OPS, slugging and OBP. The weakness is they’re 24th in batting average and second in K rate at 27.6%. Castillo has only given up a 0.28 HR/9 through 32.1 IP so he could hold down the best facets of the Cubs offense. Something that really sticks out for Castillo is the .400 BABIP, which is insanely high. That helps explain why the ERA of 3.62 is so much higher than the FIP at 2.06 and the xFIP at 3.10. With a career-best K rate of 31.0%, it’s not hard to see the ceiling that Castillo has today even if he’s not the prototypical cash game option today. Framber Valdez Pitch Data – FB – 13th SL – 18th Valdez has been a revelation for the Astros this year, being their second-best starter by the numbers. I don’t normally attack the A’s with lefty pitching, but Valdez has been phenomenal this season. His starts have included vs the Angels twice, Mariners, A’s and in Coors Field. The lowest DK output in those starts? It was 20.7 DK points against the Mariners. Valdez has been excellent in tougher matchups and the A’s are a top-four K rate team to LHP this year at 26.0%. Valdez has massively cut his walk rate from 13.4% in 2019 to 5.8% so far in 38.1 IP this year. The ERA of 2.35 is matched by the FIP and xFIP being under 2.85 each. Perhaps the craziest part of his production is it has come with just a 9.7% swinging strike rate and a .307 BABIP. There’s actually room for more and he’s really cheap for his production so far. Deivi Garcia Pitch Data – N/A Garcia is making his major league debut today for the Yankees and he’s even cheaper than Dunning. The risk here is intense but he’s the cheapest we ever get a starting pitcher and if he hits 10 DK, it’s well worth it. Through 40 IP in AAA last year, he posted a 25.3% K rate along with an 11.2% walk rate. He was better to LHH with just a .216 average and .667 OPS given up. That’s a big plus against the Mets. Garcia’s main calling cards are his curve (Mets rank 23rd) and the big fastball (16th) and the curve has a major spin rate, according to an MLB.com scouting report. I’m always willing to chase talent when it’s cheap and we could conceivably spend $8,500 on a pitching duo today. You could really play a Frankenstein offense after that! Tony Gonsolin Pitch Data – FB – 27th SF – 12th We’re on take three for a GPP option, so this is going to be a quick one. Gonsolin has yet to be scored on this year but the 2.12 FIP is still more than solid. Sure, he’s not going to boast a 100% strand rate forever but Gonsolin is a solid arm. He’s racked up a 2.14 ERA and a 22.9% K rate through 54.2 IP at the major league level. Texas isn’t a huge K team but 22.5% isn’t sparkling either. Gonsolin’s has given up a whopping .143 wOBA to the LHH so far and I like to see that vs the Rangers. Five of their projected lineup are on the left side of the plate. With Woodruff being cheaper in a better spot, Gonsolin won’t get a ton of ownership. Monkey Knife Fight Picks Since this is a pitching based article, we don’t talk about offenses too much unless we’re attacking them. It’s a great time to sign up with our link to monkeyknifefight.com and make some bets yourself that are based on offense! The Nationals and Red Sox both get amazing matchups today. Zac Godley and Austin Voth are on the mound so we’re going after them. Voth is giving up a .403 wOBA to LHH so Devers is the perfect fit. Godley is just poor to everyone so we’ can pick two stars from the Nationals lineup with ease! Let’s get it tonight my friends! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
MLB MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.29 Adam Strangis 4 years ago written by Adam Strangis MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.29 Last night’s slate was full of good picks led by Marlins starter Sixto Sanchez and Brewers starter Corbin Burnes, who both exceeded 30 DK at lower ownership. The only real miss was Triston McKenzie and I wish he had been allowed to come back out for the fifth. Regardless, it’s a new day. MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.29 doesn’t have near the same options but we’ll sift through to find who we like tonight! Cash Game Options Dylan Bundy Pitch Data – FB – 25th SL – 24th CH – 27th CB – 21st I don’t think we’ve said this often through his career, but Bundy might well be the safest option on this entire slate. He’s come back down to Earth a little bit his past two starts but he was due some type of regression. Bundy still boasts a K rate nearing 29% and a swinging strike rate of 12.7%. Seattle has been better the best couple weeks but still has a K rate over 23%. The one aspect that really sticks out against Bundy is Seattle is projected for seven LHH in their lineup tonight. That would be an issue since Bundy’s K rate to LHH is only 22.2% and the wOBA is .304. I believe the ownership in cash games is high, so it’s worth riding the chalk. However, with the volatility of pitching overall tonight, he might be a fade for me in GPP. Brett Anderson Pitch Data – FB – 30th CH – 23rd CT – 20th To say Anderson is not normally in cash consideration is an understatement. I’m not even a big fan of this pick in general, but we have a very limited pool tonight. Anderson lives on ground balls, generating over 62% so far this year. The swinging strike rate of 7.6% leads you right into his 17.5% K rate. That’s not great at all but it’s actually Anderson’s highest mark since 44 IP in 2013. Pittsburgh isn’t a huge ground ball rate team or K rate (21.8%) to LHP but they’re still not a very dangerous offense in general. Despite being top 12 in average and OBP, they rank average or worse in OPS, ISO and wOBA. Given Anderson’s price tag, we’re hoping for 12-15 DK and not a blowup start here. This is almost certainly my cash combo as I can’t get behind any option more than Anderson. GPP Options Lance Lynn Pitch Data – FB – 1st SL – 11th Normally Lynn would be a feature in cash, especially on a smaller slate. Normally, he’s not facing the Dodgers. Not only are they the number one team vs the fastball, Lynn throws it over 71% of the time. It’s not a great spot, needless to say. Did I mention that the Dodgers have the lowest K rate to RHP in baseball as well? A really good pitcher like Lynn can go out there on any given night and shut down even a great offense. He still does have a 28.1% K rate and a hard hit rate of just 35.1%. Lynn could also mute the Dodgers power with just a 0.99 HR/9 and he’s better to LHH with a .197 wOBA. It’s just always dangerous to go against the Dodgers. Justus Sheffield Pitch Data – FB – 26th SL – 12th CH – 17th At first glance, Sheffield seemed like a pretty poor choice. However, there’s actually a strong statistical case so far to pitch him. I had assumed the Angels would be quite good to LHP but so far, that’s not the case. They rank no higher than 25th in average, OBP, OPS, wOBA or wRC+. Even the ISO is only 20th, which is a surprising development for a team with Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. Sheffield has cut his walks down to 7.3% from 10.7% in 2019, which is a positive step for a young pitcher. We also like the fly ball rate of just 25.6%, even if we could live without the 47.4% hard hit rate. Sheffield is by no means safe but has pitched better lately and has a FIP of 2.55 or under to each side of the plate. Given that LA is top 10 in K rate to LHP at 23.9%, Sheffield could be pretty sneaky here. JT Brubaker Pitch Data – FB – 28th SL – 27th CB – 14th We only have a 15 IP sample size, so let’s not get crazy here. However, Brubaker has flashed a little bit of K upside in his last start. It’s 23.5% overall which is really not that shabby. Milwaukee is still in the top three in K rate to RHP at 27.6% so the matchup is worth chasing. Brubaker has seen his pitch count climb to 76 and he should be over 80 tonight if everything is going well. His ERA is 4.80 but the FIP is 3.49 so maybe he’s been slightly unlucky. The .326 BABIP would back up that theory as well. If there’s a time to take a chance with a pitcher that’s under $6,000 in a great matchup, it’s really this slate for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.29. Monkey Knife Fight Picks Since this is a pitching based article, we haven’t talked about Coors Field yet but we all know that’s where the popular offenses are going to be tonight. It’s a great time to sign up with our link to monkeyknifefight.com and make some bets yourself! Neither the Padres or the Rockies are throwing their best starters on the hill, so let’s take advantage of it! I’m betting on Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado against any LHP in Coors and Fernando Tatis may well be the NL MVP. I’ll take them to go over 15.5 fantasy points tonight! Let’s get it tonight my friends! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
MLB MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.28 Adam Strangis 4 years ago written by Adam Strangis MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.28 It appears we’ll back in action tonight with what is listed as a 12 game slate. Given the past couple days, I highly encourage you to be around Discord for any potential updates as they roll in. We’ll do our best to keep everyone posted on what’s happening. The 12 games offers us a pretty full gamut of pitchers today so let’s get after it in the MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.28! Cash Game Options Max Scherzer Pitch Data – FB – 23rd SL – 18th CH – 12th Mad Max also throws a curve and a cutter but they are under 10% each. Scherzer isn’t quite his normal self here so far this season. So far though six starts (really five since one was only an inning), he’s seen some regression. The ERA is up and it’s mirrored by a rise in FIP and xFIP. His HR/9 is currently at a high water mark of his career at 1.44. The walk rate is also at the highest it’s ever been at 9.5% while the K rate is the lowest since 2016. Granted, it’s still at 32.1% but it’s noticeable. The common thought would be “it’s a small sample” and it’s not like Scherzer hasn’t been really good. He just hasn’t quite been the Scherzer we’ve seen for year. I’m always a little more cautious with older guys like Max with a ton of mileage, including a World Series run last year. Boston has the 11th highest K rate to RHP so Scherzer is the cash pitcher of the night. I believe we have other options and I will likely be underweight outside of that format. Zac Gallen Pitch Data – FB – 19th CT – 26th CB – 30th CH – 13th If you’re a person who locks in the two best pitchers on the slate on DraftKings and then builds the bats, Gallen is your man to go with Scherzer. I was very impressed with his last start, even though it was under 20 DK. He loaded up the bases in the first, throwing 12 of his first 15 pitches for strikes. That was about all he gave up the rest of the way, pitching six innings of one run ball. Gallen is pretty even in his splits, with neither side having a wOBA over .277 on the year. Even against the Giants who have a lefty heavy lineup, the 26% K rate to LHH still projects pretty well for Gallen. He’s flirting with a 13% swinging strike rate so the 29.4% overall seems here to stay. It’s wise to eat Scherzer chalk but Gallen could rival his score on this slate. Corbin Burnes Pitch Data – FB – 30th SL – 17th CT – 23rd CB – 29th SF – 25th I don’t have any real qualms with Zach Wheeler or even a Kyle Hendricks for safety, but I’m not a huge fan of the price. Generally, I want to feature the cheapest option for cash and Burnes is that choice tonight. He does not have a game under double digit DK points in four starts and has been over 15 in three of them. The pitch data is elite against the Pirates, along with about every other major category we value. I wil point out that Burnes is not the prototypical cash pitcher. The 14.7% walk rate is scary, but mitigated by the Pirates having the lowest walk rate in the majors. We do love the 33% K rate for Burnes and the 14.5% swinging strike rate. The stuff isn’t a problem for him at all. He strikes out both sides of the plate evenly and Pittsburgh has moved into the top 10 in K rate. This is a cheap source of strikeouts that has some of his negatives muted by the matchup. GPP Options Triston McKenzie Pitch Data – FB – 18th CB – 26th I can only hope McKenzie gives us the same results for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.28 that he gave us last time with 33 DK. We can’t be overly sure on the pitch mix for McKenzie based off one start, but his two main pitches are a good matchup here. He was evil in his first career start, racking up 10 strikeouts in six innings and only giving up a solo homer. The Cards aren’t a giant K rate team to RHP but 22.5% is plenty good for the price range. The bottom line is he’s been a touted prospect in the past and he showed poise, talent and ceiling in his first start. I’m more than happy to play him again. Sixto Sanchez Pitch Data – FB – 20th SL – 5th CH – 5th Another young buck who can throw fire, Sanchez does draw a tough matchup on the pitch data side of things. Despite having a big fastball, he’s never been a giant strikeout pitcher and Tampa is under 24% as a team in K rate. He handled LHH far better than RHH in his first start, and that would be key against the Rays if it holds up. hey are projected for six lefties tonight so that could favor Sanchez. He’s just like McKenzie. There’s not much data and he’s a grab bag of outcomes, but he’s under $6,000 and is very talented. Just understand what you’re getting into when playing him. Ryan Yarbrough Pitch Data – FB – 16th CT – 19th CH – 23rd The lefty for the Rays hasn’t exactly found his footing yet, but he couldn’t ask for a better spot than tonight to get going. He threw 97 pitches last start so that’s not a concern and the Marlins scuffle vs LHP. They sit third in K rate at 27.7%. Additionally, they don’t rank higher than 23rd in average, OPS, OBP, slugging, wOBA or wRC+. Yarbrough’s price really is favorable tonight for someone that can go dip into a ball game and has a great matchup. The K rate should come up form 15.9% based on his history, and his swinging strike rate of 13.3% is easily the highest of his career. It’s just a matter of time before he puts together a 20 DK game and it could well be tonight. Let’s get it tonight my friends! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
MLB MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.26 Adam Strangis 4 years ago written by Adam Strangis MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.26 When you write up a pitcher that walks our there and scores 55 DK points and throws a no-hitters, things can’t bee that bad! Lucas Giolito was phenomenal last night and did whatever he wanted to the Pirates. Shane Bieber continued his run of dominance with double-digit strikeouts and if you paired those two up, you were in pretty good shape last night. MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.26 features two premier strikeout pitchers but we also have at least one pitcher at a significant mis-price to go after tonight! Cash Game Options Jacob deGrom Pitch Data – FB – 13th SL – 21st CH – 22nd deGrom does throw a curveball every now and again, but it makes up under 5% of his arsenal. Really the only nit-pick we an make here is it’s the third straight time for deGrom facing off against the Marlins. I’m not sure it makes him easier to hit, but it is an odd occurrence. Miami is also just mid-pack for K rate to RHP and deGrom hasn’t passed seven K’s or 25 DK in the first two starts. These are still minor concerns. The righty for the Mets has seen his swinging strike rate jump by 3% this year to 18.3%, top-five in the majors. Unsurprisingly, the K rate is right at his career best of 32.1%. The ERA is under 2.00 and the FIP is a tiny 2.12. He’s one of the best for a reason and should be considered in all formats, and is likely cash chalk. Dinelson Lamet Pitch Data – FB – 28th SL – 17th I’m not sure why DK keeps pricing Lamet so low, but it’s making it really easy to pair up deGrom and Lamet tonight for a potential 20 strikeouts in the lineup. Chris Paddack was flat awful in this same spot last night but those pitchers are not the same. Lamet is sporting a 34.1% K rate on the season to go along with his 1.98 ERA and 2.96 FIP. He’s been lights out to both sides of the plate with a wOBA of .250 or under to both sides. He does whiff RHH more than LHH, but lefties are still over a 30% K rate. Splits aren’t a huge concern even with five lefties projected. The four RHH have a collective K rate of 29.2% so there’s no real reason to suggest Lamet shouldn’t dominate. He’s also still at least $1,000 too cheap, again. Clayton Kershaw Pitch Data – FB – 14th SL – 7th CB – 27th If you feel compelled to not play the deGrom/Lamet pairing in cash (I’m fairly locked in), you almost have to go to Kershaw by default. I said last start we might not get vintage Kershaw but that’s exactly what we got. He struck out 11 hitters across 7 IP and just 96 pitches. The 32.2% K rate is the best Kershaw has had since 2015, a bad sign for the rest of baseball. The swinging strike rate is back up over 15% for the first time in four years on top of that. The whiff rate on the slider has jumped by about 5%, which certainly helps explain some things. That pitch has gotten 62% of his strikeouts, where it was 57% last year. The Giants have given Kershaw his worst start of the year, but that is an outlier of the four starts. I strongly prefer deGrom/Lamet, but it’s hard to ever go wrong with Kershaw. GPP Options Elieser Hernandez Pitch Data – FB – 18th SL – 8th CH – 1st We don’t love the data for the slider and change, but Hernandez does use the fastball over 60% of the time so that helps mitigate the fear. The other factors that point me to Hernandez are the 32.9% K rate to just a 4% walk rate. He’s hit at least 13 DK in all four starts and given up three earned or under in all four. Coming off back to back 20+ DK starts, Hernandez didn’t see a salary raise from $6,600. The splits really work out in the favor of Hernandez as well. He only gives ups .187 wOBA and .412 OPS to the left side of the plate so far. The K rate is spiked all the way to 40% and the FIP is 0.88. With five LHH projected for the Mets, Hernandez is a great low cost options with the tangible upside tonight. He is my favorite GPP option for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.26. Jose Berrios Pitch Data – FB – 24th CB – 22nd CH – 24th It’s always scary putting Berrios in any article, let alone the next start after a dominating performance. Berrios is consistently inconsistent and getting him right twice in a row could be a lot to ask. Still, the matchup is good on paper. The pitch data really lines up well for Berrios, as does the ninth-highest K rate to RHP for the Indians at 24.7%. Cleveland is also not above 24th in average, OPS, ISO, wOBA or wRC+ so the offense is one we can target. They do have more talent than the numbers indicate, so there’s sill risk. For Berrios, the 25.2% K rate is right about at his career best mark. The 11.5% swinging strike rate would be the best mark so there’s reason to believe he has some upside tonight. If the “Good” Berrios shows up, he could go for another 25+ DK game like last time. Kevin Gausman Pitch Data – FB – 1st SF – 18th CH – 9th In the long run, there’s not a lot of money to be made using pitchers against the Dodgers. However, Gausman has already faced the gauntlet once and came away with 6.1 IP, six strikeouts and 22.5 DK points. That was on the road to boot. His pitch count has been over 100 for the last two starts so if things got relatively well, six innings is well within reach. The Dodgers are the best K rate team to RHP but Gausman counters that with a 31.6% K rate of his own. He gets a swinging strike 14.8% of the time and the 4.65 ERA doesn’t match the 3.12 FIP. Pitchers against the Dodgers always come in low-owned, especially one without a real reputation like Gausman. Still, he’s already shown ceiling once in this spot and is capable of doing it again. This is only a play for the bold at heart. Let’s get it tonight my friends! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
MLB MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.25 Adam Strangis 4 years ago written by Adam Strangis MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.25 Last night’s slate didn’t turn out exactly how I had envisioned, but we still hit on a lot of solid plays. Maybe the higher end like Trevor Bauer were a little disappointing but overall, it wasn’t the worst night. Lance Lynn and Jesus Luzardo especially stood out so let’s keep building momentum. Tonight’s slate has two of the best arms in the business so let’s get right into MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.25! Cash Game Options Shane Bieber Pitch Data – FB – 19th SL – 18th CT – 25th CB – 18th Perhaps one of the reasons Bieber has already had a 13 strikeout, 46.2 DK performance against these Twins is the pitch data. Minnesota isn’t in the top half of the league against any of Bieber’s main four pitches. The 46 DK points have been Bieber’s best score to date, so I can’t say I’m extremely worried about the matchup. He still leads MLB starters in total strikeouts, K% and ERA. On top of that, the swinging strike rate is also best in the majors at almost 19%. Still under $11,000 for some unknown reason, Bieber is an incredible option across all formats tonight. Gerrit Cole Pitch Data – FB – 3rd SL – 3rd CB – 3rd Well, talk about a not-so-encouraging pitch data matchup. The Braves sit third vs all Cole’s major pitches and we’d be silly to not consider that. However, Atlanta is also top six in K rate to RHP at 25.6% on the year so there’s absolutely room for Cole to mow them down. The key for Cole this year has been what type of lineup he’s facing. LHH have actually had some success with a .344 wOBA and an .800 OPS. Additionally, the K rate is 27% versus a 35.5% mark to RHH. The 6.33 FIP to LHH is eye-opening as well. Fortunately for Cole, the Braves lineup projects to be skewed to the right side of the plate with five RHH. I prefer Bieber, but Cole is still talented enough to overcome whatever flaws we can pick at. Chris Paddack Pitch Data – FB – 29th CH – 24th With Paddack relying on these two pitches 87% of the time, they’re the pitches that are most important to look at. I believe the Bieber and Paddack pairing will be the chalk pairing in cash over on DK to afford some offense. With the Mariners having a 22.8% K rate and bottom 10 in ISO and wOBA, it’s hard to argue. Paddack has only had one poor start this year that has skewed some of his results. Considering it was against the Dodgers in LA, I’m fine giving him a pass. He’s at home tonight and he continues to love it in San Diego with a 2.66 ERA through 23.2 IP. His K rate isn’t spectacular at 21.1% but he is under $8,000. His swinging strike rate is only down one percent so he should see an uptick in K rate. Paddack recorded a 26.1% rate last year and 25% seems reasonable the rest of the way. GPP Options Lucas Giolito Pitch Data – FB – 28th CH – 22nd SL – 12th This is one of the more interesting picks in MLB DFS: Starting rotation 8.25. If this was last year when Giolito was in full breakout mode, he’d be sitting in the cash options pile. He has had a couple bumps in the road so while I do think he’s right at the cash line, the Bieber/Paddack combo is likely the route to take. Giolito is coming off his best start of the year, racking up 43.4 DK points against the Detroit Tigers. Now he gets the Pirates, who are of little threat. The K rate and swinging strike rate this season are really right in line for last year for the righty. One thing that has shifted is the walk rate from 8.1% to 11.3%. Since Pittsburgh is dead last in walk rate to RHP, this is less of a concern tonight. Giolito might be lower owned than Cole or Bieber, making him very interesting tonight. German Marquez Pitch Data – FB – 30th SL – 1st CB – 9th As is typical of Marquez, he’s two different pitchers so far this year. He’s been awesome on the road with a 1.93 ERA and .237 wOBA through 18.2 starts. Somebody please trade for him to get him out of Coors. Anyways, he’s in Arizona tonight and the D-Backs offense has been less than inspiring this year. They are 20th or worse in wOBA, wRC+ and ISO so far. The bugaboo here is the six LHH projected for the D-Backs. Marquez only gives up a .250 wOBA on the road to lefties, but the K rate is only 16.7%. Combine that with a second-best 20.4% K rate for Arizona and there’s risk here. The risk is more “does he pay off price” because I don’t think he gets lit up. I always have shares of Marquez on the road and tonight will be no different. Adam Wainwright Pitch Data – FB – 6th CT – 16th CB – 27th This pick isn’t exactly typical, as I’m not a big Wainwright guy at this point in his career. However, the deeper I looked, the more sense he made in GPP. Splits are important for Waino. Last year he was lights out at home with a 2.56 ERA compared to 6.22 on the road. Through 13 IP at home this year, he’s at a 2.08 ERA and just a .208 wOBA. The opposing lineup composition is important as well. Waino only has an 11.9% K rate to LHP compared to 24.1% to RHH. The Royals are projected for five lefties, but three have a K rate above 26%. With the Royals being near the bottom of the league against the curveball, that could help Wainwright in a major way. It’s been responsible for seven of 12 strikeouts already. The only two hitters in the positives of FanGraphs rating vs the curve is Whit Merrifield and Maikel Franco. Wainwright could be a stealthy option with Paddack and Marquez both cheaper. Let’s get it tonight my friends! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NBA 8.25 MLB DFS Preview Podcast Michael Rasile 4 years ago written by Michael Rasile 8.25 MLB DFS Preview PodcastOn the 8.25 MLB DFS Preview, Ghost and Michael check out the 8.25 MLB slate and give their favorite plays for the night! Listen to the show below and make sure to subscribe on your podcast app of choice!You can also listen on these platforms below!Apple PodcastsSpotifyAnchor🎙️ WIN DAILY SPORTS PODCAST: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/win-daily/id1461164275?ign-mpt=uo%3D4🤑 SIGN UP FOR AN ALL ACCESS ACCOUNT: WinDailySports.com/🤓 FREE EXPERT DISCORD CHAT: discord.com/invite/KEFD2Kr📺 FOLLOW Win Daily Sports: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCY2I3VNyf_dtW-2xl5vwv0QChange your game, change your life!➙FIND WIN DAILY SPORTS SHOW ON APPLE PODCAST HERE: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/win-daily/id1461164275?ign-mpt=uo%3D4➙FIND WIN DAILY SPORTS SHOW EVERYWHERE ELSE HERE: https://anchor.fm/windaily➙FOLLOW WIN DAILY SPORTS ON TWITTER: https://twitter.com/windailysports 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
MLBPremium MLB DFS: Mini slate Monday, Aces and Bases for 8.24 scotthouston1971@yahoo.com 4 years ago written by scotthouston1971@yahoo.com Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let's run it back today. The August 24th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel. The purpose of this article is to identify o... 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
MLBPremium MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday 8.24 Adam Strangis 4 years ago written by Adam Strangis MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday 8.24 Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday 8.24! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started w... 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
MLB MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.24 Adam Strangis 4 years ago written by Adam Strangis MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.24 After an off day due to some power difficulties, we’re back in action with MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.24 and it is a LOADED slate for just seven games. I’m interested in at least half the pitchers on the slate and that’s just the ones I really like. That doesn’t mention ones I could build a case for. Let’s start digging in and see what directions we can take our builds for Monday. Cash Game Options Trevor Bauer/Lance Lynn Both pitchers were laid out in Picks and Pivots so check that out to read up on why they are such strong options tonight! Merrill Kelly Pitch Data – FB – 7th CT – 21st CB – 28th CH – 26th Past the fastball, this is a strong pitch data matchup for Kelly. Even then, he only throws it 46% of the time which is on the lower side for a starter. The Rockies continue to be a poor offense on the road, with a top 10 K rate to boot. They are no higher than 25th in OPS, OBP, wOBA or wRC+. On top of that, they are dead last in ISO on the road to RHP. Kelly has some upside in this spot and he feels mighty safe for his price. Kenta Maeda Pitch Data – FB – 23rd SL – 26th CH – 27th This spot is great for Maeda for his three main pitches, so a big tick for him right off the bat. I didn’t exactly think we’d be targeting the Cleveland offense all that much, but they have flopped pretty majorly thus far. They rank in the top 12 for K rate to RHP and are just a bad offensive team. The Indians are no higher than 24th in average, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA or wRC+. Maeda has a K rate that’s approaching 29% and a fly ball rate of just 27.6%. Couple that with a 26.3% ground ball rate and we can see why Maeda has a 2.27 ERA and a 2.46 FIP. One of the biggest shifts is Minnesota letting the leash off him. He’s made it through at least six innings in four of five starts. That’s a massive shift from his Dodger days. His price is still very fair and I don’t believe he gets blown up. GPP Options Jesus Luzardo Pitch Data – FB – 25th SL – 30th CH – 19th It’s been a mixed bag for fantasy production from Luzardo so far. He’s got two starts below 10 DK, one in the negative points and then three above 18. That’s the definition of a GPP play but the pitch data is certainly in his favor tonight, as is the price. Luzardo is whiffing 23.9% of the hitters he’s facing with only a 25% fly ball rate. The young lefty also gets a great matchup for strikeout upside since the Rangers are sixth in K rate to LHP at 26.1%. Additionally they are bottom 10 in every major offensive category we value. This could be a repeat of his last game where he scored 28.1 DK points and he would smash value in that scenario. Brad Keller Pitch Data – FB – 20th SL – 18th Keller is not my normal GPP pick, but the price is awfully low for a pitcher averaging over 20 DK in his first three starts. Now, he’s yet to give up an earned run so it’s painfully obvious that some type of regression will get to him. To wit, the xFIP is at 4.32. That’s not exceptionally bad but that’s a massive difference as well. The K-BB% isn’t my favorite at just 10.6% but St. Louis could help here. They are a top 10 team in K rate at 24.8% and are 27th in hard hit rate at just 38.4%. The only team with a lower ISO is the Pirates, and that’s not where you want to be. I worry if Keller gives up some runs because he doesn’t have a ton of strikeouts to fall back on. Through 436 plate appearances, they only have 51 total runs vs RHP so Keller is worth a shot at such a low price. Casey Mize Pitch Data – FB – 11th SL – 29th CB – 6th SF – 15th So we obviously need to approach the pitch dat with caution. Mize only has 4.1 IP at the major league level, so grain of salt and all that. On 19 splitters in the first start, he got a 31% whiff rate so it’s definitely going to be a big weapon for him. The Cubs have some good pieces, but are down Kris Bryant right now. They are also second in the league in K rate to RHP at 29.1%. Make no mistake, Chicago could do some damage here. They are a top 10 offense pretty much across the board. Mize gave up three earned in the first start but it was interesting to see the FIP and xFIP at 2.93 and 1.29. He likely pitched a little better than the line suggests. Five strong innings with another 6-8 strikeouts is within reach and worth a gamble. Let’s get it tonight my friends! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return. 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
MLB MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.22 Adam Strangis 4 years ago written by Adam Strangis MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.22 My goodness, was it an absolute minefield for pitching last night. Walker Buehler, Max Fried and Chad Kuhl were about the only two that hit and Buehler was the only big hit. Past that, it was littered with busted chalk and pitchers that couldn’t get out of their own way. There’s not many more obvious choices for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.22 but we’ll unearth some gems along the way here! Cash Game Options Zac Gallen Gallen was featured today in Picks and Pivots so there’s no need to go over him again. Zack Wheeler Pitch Data – FB – 1st SL – 6th CB – 8th CH – 25th At first glance, it’s not an encouraging matchup for Wheeler via the pitch data. However, some of that is mitigated by the pieces the Braves are currently missing. Yes, Nola fell apart but that seemed more a case of him losing it than anything. He was strong to start and I was as if someone hit the switch on him. Wheeler has a 9.8% swinging strike rate and a a puny 12% K rate. He’s really cash only (and overpriced at that) because of the K rate so far. His calling card has been no hard contact at 27.2% and no fly balls at 22.5%. Neither side of the plate has over a .300 wOBA against Wheeler but the matchup means we should consider him. He’s certainly not my pitcher of choice. We’d just be aiming for safety here. Kyle Hendricks Pitch Data – FB – 10th CB – 4th CH – 16th Another matchup where the pitch data may not look great, but Hendricks is very good at limiting damage. His ERA hasn’t been over 3.50 since 2015 and the FIP hasn’t been over 4.00 in his career. This year, the K rate has dipped a little to 19.7%. The White Sox might help him out though since they sit fourth in K rate at 26.1%. Chicago showed last night that the lineup is certainly dangerous. Still, Hendricks doesn’t allow much hard contact at 36.4% and it’s hard to lift the ball on him at a 28.3% fly ball rate. Aiding that metric is the White Sox ranking 26th in flay ball rate to RHP at just 31.8%. Hendricks should be able to frustrate this mostly young White Sox lineup with his craftiness. GPP Options Triston McKenzie McKenzie was also featured in Picks and Pivots so you can check out his breakdown there! Dustin May Pitch Data – FB – 8th CT – 20th May is a really interesting case for this slate. He does throw a curve and a change but not really enough to consider here. I thought about putting him in cash but the reality is he’s only scored above 9.5 DK twice in five starts. Now, he’s still appealing because the Rockies have two different offenses. They have a good one in Coors and they have an abjectly awful one on the road. They even got Buehler a get right spot last night for the first time all year. Colorado may also help out May’s lack of strikeouts since they have a 27.1% rate to RHP on the road. There’s no discernible advantage from either side of the plate, so the projected lineup shouldn’t be a huge concern from that aspect. I’m not a huge fan of the price but there’s definitely a reason to take the shot here with May flashing ceiling in two starts. Justus Sheffield Pitch Data – FB – 23rd SL – 30th CH – 18th Sheffield arguably has the best pitch data matchup of the slate and that’s very nice tick in his direction. It also helps that he comes cheap still and the Rangers have been rough vs LHP so far. They rank sixth K rate at 27.1%, which should help out Sheffield’s 21.4% mark. Texas ranks no higher than 20th in average, OBP, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ vs LHP. Their best mark is the 18th best ISO, at .162. The young lefty for the Mariners is combatting a mediocre K rate with a great fly ball rate of just 27.1%. Texas is right in the middle of the pack for fly ball rate at 17th overall. Sheffield is far from trustworthy, but with only one earned run over his past 12 IP he is rolling. The matchup is well worth considering. Let’s get it tonight my friends! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return. 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
