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Minnesota Vikings

Week 15 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Vikings at Bears

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big in one of the final Week 15 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 15 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 15 NFL DFS Chalk: Dalvin Cook (FD $15,000, DK $17,700)

Pivot: Justin Jefferson (FD $14,500, DK $16,800)

Contrarian #1: Justin Fields (FD $14,000, DK $15,600)

Contrarian #2: Kirk Cousins (FD $16,000, DK $16,500)

Contrarian #3: David Montgomery (FD $12,500, DK $13,500)

DK Value Play: K.J. Osborn (FD $9000, DK $8,700)

Dalvin Cook projects to be the chalk at CPT, but there’s reason to believe a lot of folks will pivot to Justin Jefferson because of the upside in this matchup against the Bears — who are much better against the run. There’s also little standing in the way of Justin Fields having another big fantasy performance, as the Vikings defense is beat up and Fields is rolling n with a lot more confidence than the outset of 2021.

Vikings notes: Adam Thielen is questionable with an ankle injury, which means that K.J. Osborn‘s value takes a big hit if the veteran WR suits up. Kirk Cousins makes sense at CPT for contrarian builds and as a flex in 4-2 stacks, and Tyler Conklin and kicker Greg Joseph are my other to favorite plays on the Vikings, and we don’t really need to expand our player pool unnecessarily with this team.

Bears notes: After Fields, I have the most interest in David Montgomery and Darnell Mooney (with Allen Robinson still in COVID protocols), and TEs Cole Kmet and Jimmy Graham have seen their showdown salaries jump significantly in the past few weeks. Jakeem Grant and Damiere Byrd are also in play as a boom-or-bust options capable of huge plays despite limited touches/targets. I probably won’t be including either of these DSTs in too many builds.

Week 15 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Be afraid to take some risks.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

Now that we’ve established some Week 15 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Dalvin Cook
Justin Jefferson
Justin Fields
Kirk Cousins
David Montgomery
Darnell Mooney
K.J. Osborn (if Thielen inactive)
Allen Robinson (if he comes off COVID list)
Adam Thielen (questionable)
Tyler Conklin
Cole Kmet
Jakeem Grant
Damiere Byrd
Greg Joseph
Jimmy Graham
Cairo Santos
Vikings DST
Bears DST
Damien Williams
C.J. Ham
Wayne Gallman
Chris Herndon

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports Premium

Week 14 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Steelers at Vikings

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The Thursday night showdown kicks off the Week 14 NFL DFS contests, and we’ve got the picks to help you win big tonight and make some serious green!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy and how it relates to Week 14 NFL DFS showdowns, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Week 14 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 14 NFL DFS Chalk: Justin Jefferson (FD $13,500, DK $16,500)

Pivot: Najee Harris (FD $14,000, DK $15,000)

DK Value Pivot (Steelers): Ben Roethlisberger (FD $15,000, DK $13,500)

Contrarian #1: Diontae Johnson (FD $13,000, DK $15,300)

Contrarian #2: Chase Claypool (FD $10,000, DK $11,100)

Contrarian #3 (DK only): Steelers DST (DK $6,300)

A couple of weeks ago the outlook for this matchup may have been a lot different, but in that time, Dalvin Cook was injured (but should return for this game), the Steelers bounced back in a huge way and the Vikings lost to the Lions — the first win for Detroit in the 2021 season. With the Steelers defense around full strength and tied for the fourth-lowest red-zone conversion rate in the NFL and Adam Thielen out for this one, I’m eliminating Kirk Cousins from the majority of my builds and focusing on the Steelers and Justin Jefferson, who will probably end up being the chalk at CPT with Cook’s shoulder somewhat of a question mark.

Steelers notes: Ben Roethlisberger could have enormous value against a banged-up Vikings defense, and he’s got a near-full complement of weapons (minus JuJu Smith-Schuster, of course). I’m inclined to stack up Roethisberger at CPT in Steelers-heavy builds with Pat Freiermuth and Diontae Johnson, though it’s a good bounceback spot for Najee Harris, who had his most effective stretch between weeks 3-8 but has slowed down a bit in his rookie season. Both Freiermuth and Chase Claypool offer big-time value given their upsides, though Claypool has been relatively quiet in 2021 with just one TD.

Vikings notes: Jefferson and ook should pace the offense tonight, but we can mix in some shares of Tyler Conklin and K.J. Osborn, both of whom have some aditional value with Thielen out. Since Cook is expected to play, we can probably eliminate Alexander Mattison from the majority of our builds, though I’m not opposed to getting some shares in case Cook is limited or takes a big hit and is forced to leave the game. I have much less interest in the Vikings DST but will have some shares of kicker Greg Joseph considering how the Steelers tend to stall drives in the red zone.

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

Week 14 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget to watch the inactives.

Now that we’ve established some Week 14 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Justin Jefferson
Ben Roethlisberger
Najee Harris
Diontae Johnson
Dalvin Cook
Kirk Cousins
Pat Freiermuth
Tyler Conklin
Chase Claypool
Steelers DST
Greg Joseph
K.J. Osborn
Chris Boswell
Alexander Mattison
James Washington
Vikings DST
Ray-Ray McCloud
Benny Snell, Jr.
Dede Westbrook
Zach Gentry

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 14 action!

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 16 NFL DFS Christmas Day Showdown: Vikings at Saints

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Christmas Day showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the first Week 16 NFL DFS contests!

Week 16 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Dalvin Cook (DK $18,000, FD $16,000)

Pivot: Alvin Kamara (DK $17,100, FD $15,000)

Contrarian #1: Drew Brees (DK $15,300, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #2: Adam Thielen (DK $12,900, FD $12,000)

FD/DK Value: Latavius Murray (DK $4,800 FLEX, FD $10,000), Irv Smith, Jr. (DK $5,200 FLEX, FD $7,500)

DK Punts: Marquez Callaway (DK $200 FLEX), Lil’Jordan Humphrey ($2,600)

Welcome to a special Christmas Day Showdown edition of the preview!

The chalk in this game will be mostly a battle of RBs, with Dalvin Cook having the edge based on his logged 2020 ceiling of 50 points and his matchup-proof reputation. The red one in the matchup rank will scare a few folks off, so I’m still buying in all formats – looking at about 50% ownership as the CPT on FD and slightly less than that on DK. Alvin Kamara could be a sneaky pivot, although Cook is the safer option in cash games. On DK, it will take some finagling to squeeze both Cook and Kamara in, but I’m going to try. Latavius Murray still gets his fair share of touches, too – and he’s facing his old team for you Narrative Street whizbangs.

With Michael Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith out, we can look to the Saints WRs and TEs for value, paying particular attention to Emmanuel Sanders, Lil’Jordan Humphrey (I can’t tell you how long I’ve waited for a reason to type out his name) and Juwan Johnson. Keep any eye on the status of Marquez Callaway, who was just activated from IR. He could be a great value if active, which would slightly ding both Humphrey and Johnson.

I don’t mind Josh Hill’s minimum price in like 2/10 GPPs, and the right kicker and QB – be it a somewhat rusty Drew Brees or the always compelling Kirk Cousins could round out a team with plenty of upside.

Justin Jefferson has gone a couple of weeks without a receiving TD, so I think he’ll notch another one, but his price point makes Adam Thielen the better value with a similar ceiling, as he’s about $600 cheaper on DK.

I’ll have some shares of the Saints DST in some builds that focus on Cook/Kamara/Saints value WR/TE and avoid Cousins and the two big Minnesota WRs, but the Vikings, especially since the Vikings have allowed DSTs to score about two thirds more fantasy points than the average opposing DST over the last three weeks.

Week 16 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Go into your GPP builds without a narrative plan this week. Use the writeup and flex list below to help narrow your player pool and find a winning path.

DO: Play Dalvin Cook and Kamara in GPPs, preferably together.

DON’T: Forget about the Saints DST in some builds. I’d shooting for about 35-40 percent GPP ownership.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Dalvin Cook
Alvin Kamara
Drew Brees
Adam Thielen
Justin Jefferson
Kirk Cousins
Latavius Murray
Irv Smith, Jr.
Emmanuel Sanders
Jared Cook
Saints DST (bump up three spots for GPPs)
Lil’Jordan Humphrey
Juwan Johnson
Marquez Callaway (if active)
Chad Beebe
Will Lutz
Dan Bailey
Tyler Conklin
Vikings DST
Taysom Hill
Josh Hill
Adam Trautman
Ameer Abdullah

4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 10 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown Preview: Vikings at Bears

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 10 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 10 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Dalvin Cook (DK $20,400, FD $17,500)

Pivot: Kirk Cousins (DK $15,300, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #1: Nick Foles (DK $14,700, FD $13,500)

Contrarian #2: Adam Thielen (DK $15,000, FD $14,000)

The easy choice for the captain chalk is Dalvin Cook, who’s season low is 17.1 DK points in Week 2 against Indy. This season he’s scored 21.8, 17.1, 29.9, 31.6, 19.9, BYE, INJ, 51.6 and 42.2 DK points – numbers bolstered by the fact that he’s scored at least one TD in every game he’s played this season (12 TDs in seven games). He seems matchup-proof at this point.

We could pivot to Kirk Cousins if assume the Bears will stack the box against Cook, and while Cousins isn’t the most reliable real-world QB (or fantasy producer), he’s notched four weeks with at least 20 DK points and he has a bevy of offensive weapons at his disposal: Cook, veteran WR and PPR maven Adam Thielen, talented rookie wideout Justin Jefferson and stalwart TE Kyle Rudolph.

The Vikings are without Irv Smith Jr. this week, which likely dings their red zone efficacy, but the gloriously man-bunned Tyler Conklin could soak up a few extra targets in his stead. Conklin played some in 2019 and has yet to be targeted this season, but he’s the only other active TE on the Vikings roster. He’s dirt cheap and probably not a guy I’d use in more than 1/10 GPPs.

Additionally, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that capable RB Alexander Mattison sees a few additional carries this week, as Cook has logged 30 and 22 carries in his last two games. Outside of that lot and a smattering of the Vikings DST mixed into my builds, I don’t see too many other impact players for Minnesota.

The Bears have a team total under 20 in this game, which is never a good sign for fantasy production. Nick Foles has his moments, so he’s the most obvious choice for a contrarian builds – which have merit based on both game script and the Vikings’ record against opposing QBs.

I’d love to plug Foles and Allen Robinson into some lineups right away, but AR2 is questionable with a knee injury and we could see more targets heading the ay of both Anthony Miller and rookie Darnell Mooney. Mooney, even as the Bears deep threat, might even be the safer play of the two given Miller’s spotty performance this season – though Miller has a been a favorite feast-or-famine GPP play for me over the past couple of seasons since he seems to make some truly amazing catches when he’s on his game.

Bears TE Jimmy Graham is another relatively safe fantasy option that maintains some upside, and the Vikings yield about a third more production to opposing TEs than the average NFL team. He’ll be a staple of my builds in all formats.

The backfield is a mess, with the team promoting Lamar Miller from the practice squad to help Ryan Nall with RB duties. Miller hasn’t taken the field since 2018 because of an ACL injury and he was cut from the Patriots roster this summer. He could be a free space at just $200 on DK, but he’ll likely split work with Nall and Swiss army knife Cordarrelle Patterson in Week 10. This relatively ugly committee should still be led by Nall, with David Montgomery still in concussion protocol and ruled out for Week 10.

Lastly, there’s no way we can omit the Bears DST – a strength of this team and a glaring GPP possibility when we’re honest about the fallibility of Cousins and the 3-5 Vikings in general. I’ll have shares of both them and K Cairo Santos in GPPs.

Week 10 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Forget about the defenses – as both QBs have been known to look downright foolish on the football field.

DO: Use Dalvin Cook somewhere in your lineup – unless you’re planning on him getting injured, which is both mean and dumb.

DON’T: Be afraid to completely fade the Vikings passing game in your “Cook at CPT” builds.

Dalvin Cook
Kirk Cousins
Adam Thielen
Nick Foles
Allen Robinson (if active)
Justin Jefferson
Darnell Mooney
Jimmy Graham
Ryan Nall
Kyle Rudolph
Anthony Miller
Lamar Miller
Vikings DST
Dan Bailey
Cairo Santos
Bears DST
Alexander Mattison
Cordarrelle Patterson
Riley Ridley
Olabisi Johnson

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting

NFL Futures Bets for 2020

ddwessels@att.net 5 years ago

written by ddwessels@att.net

NFL Futures Bets for 2020

We’re always looking for ways to put money in your pockets here at Win Daily. When there is a betting line that we can take advantage of, we let you know about it too! Here are a few plays we like on DraftKings Sportsbook for the NFL Futures Bets for 2020.

Michael’s NFL Futures Bets for 2020

There are a few teams I’m looking to take advantage of this year in the NFL one of them is my beloved Giants… Make sure to give me a follow on Twitter @michaelrasile1 and hop into our Free Expert Chat on Discord.

Team Win Totals

Giants – o/u 6.5 on DraftKings- UNDER
The Giants had 4 wins last year, 2 against the Redskins, and they got better. Defense is still terrible but the offensive line did get better through the draft. I can maybe see 1 win in their first 5 games: Home against the Steelers (loss), At the Bears (loss), Home against the 49ers (loss), At the Rams (loss), Home against the Cowboys (loss). Maybe maybe maybe one of those goes the Giants way, but probably not. Facing the AFC North and NFC West with each division potentially making the argument that 3 teams from those divisions can make the playoffs. No shot at 7 wins. High on saquon in fantasy, pretty low on Daniel Jones, especially with a deep QB class.

Rams – o/u 8 – UNDER
The Rams went 9-7 last year and easily could have been in the playoffs if Greg the Leg could hit an easy field goal against Seattle. They have almost $65 million tied in dead cap (Gurley, Matthews, Cooks) and a bad QB. Offensive line was the biggest problem last year and they did some to fix it, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was bad again. Todd was bad, but still had over 1000 yard from scrimmage and 14 touchdowns. AFC East and NFC East are pretty easy. NFC West will be hard this year. 2 extra games are the Bucs and Bears, Tom Brady should be fine, and the Bears defense has given the rams fits the last few years. I think their offense won’t be as it was in 2018 and I think their defense will be middle of the pack.

Bears – o/u 7.5 – OVER
Deshaun Watson came out and said the Bears never even spoke with him. Now they are stuck with a terrible QB and Mitch Trubisky. Nick Foles was beat out by a 6th round rookie last year, so the Bears thought they should trade a 4th round pick for him, take on his contract (restructured) and now they’re in a pickle. With all that said, their schedule is super easy and them starting out 5-1 or 6-1. AFC South, and AFC South. Extra games the Giants and Saints. 1-1 there. Probably take the over, but i’d be worried. I also wouldn’t touch anyone on this offense except Allen Robinson and it won’t be until late in the draft.

Chiefs – o/u 11.5 – UNDER
The Chiefs’ schedule consists of the AFC East, NFC South, with the 2 extra against the Ravens and Texans (both play off teams). Per Warren Sharp, Chiefs are going against a top 10 hardest Pass Efficiency Defense. Chiefs love to throw the ball! But thankfully adding a running back in the draft can make their offense a little less reliant on the pass. Super Bowl hangover for all teams other than the Patriots is real. Currently favorites to win the Super Bowl. Of the last 10 winners, only 2 teams made it back to the Super Bowl, Pats/Seahawks, 3 teams didn’t make it back to the playoffs. AFC is pretty weak this year, so they make the playoffs, but I don’t think they repeat and I think they land at 11 wins.

49ers – o/u 10.5 – OVER
The 49ers schedule consists of the NFC East, AFC East, and 2 extra games against the Saints and Packers. Top three favorite to win the Super Bowl. Of the last 10 SB losers only one has come back and won it. Roster is still stacked and intact. Added a real receiver in the draft and got Trent Williams from the redskins. NFCE and AFCE are both bad, should be able to hit the over of 10.5. Fantasy will be weird, Deebo might be a fun play in DFS but I don’t see the consistency in season long. Aiyuk is a real receiver in this offense unlike the rest of them. Kittle for sure. Running back by committee, Kyle Shannahan doesn’t care.

Browns – o/u 8 – UNDER
The Browns schedule consists of the NFC East, AFC South, and 2 extra games against the Jets and Raiders. Browns were terrible last year and finished 7-9. Stacked on offense, just needed a real coach and a semblance of an offensive line. Picked up Conklin in the off season for right tackle and Jedrick Wills for left tackle, he played right tackle in college, but Tua is a lefty so he was still blindside. NFC East and AFC South are both bad and their two extra games aren’t too tough either. I think if the offense can pick it up a bit, added Austin Hooper as well I think they do great. Stephanski runs a lot of 2 TE sets so it was a great pick up. Only problem is if they start out bad, how quickly does Odell and Jarvis get angry at Baker and start to ruin the locker room and ask to be traded again? I think there is a shot at the over, but the Browns are still the Browns and in that case I take the under.

Sia’s NFL Futures Bets for 2020

Make sure to follow Sia at @SiaNejad on Twitter and hop in our Free Expert Chat on Discord!

Week 1 Lines

Chicago at Detroit (-1.5) – A best bet. Detroit at home with weapons on offense. Defense is shaky but that shouldn’t be a problem against Mitch Trubisky. Lions tend to start fast. Last year derailed by Stafford injury but this team isn’t as poor as people think.

Indianapolis (-8.5) at Jacksonville – Is it possible for a team to give up before Week 1? This game is a stay away for me but if I had to bet it I’d take the Minshew magic plus the points. It’s just too many points for a home team in Week 1. Indy probably overvalued at this point.

Green Bay at Minnesota -3.5 – shocking line. Take it at 3 maybe. This line will go down to 3 or maybe 2.5 by kickoff. I’m taking Minnesota with the assumption that I get the line later on at 3 or 3.5. Not in love with the bet but the line tells you all you need to know about how the oddsmakers feel about the Packers (record from last year may be a little fraudulent).

L.A. Chargers (-3.5) at Cincinnati – Chargers probably win but 3.5 is too much. This is a bet against on Tyrod and Anthony Lynn. Chargers can’t help but play close games and Tyrod just isn’t the guy. Bengals have just enough weapons to move the ball and keep it close.

Arizona at San Francisco (-8) – too many points. Home game not a factor here. Kyler has done well against SF. Too many weapons for Arizona. Game will be close enough.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-4) – line is all over the place. Anything under 4 and I’m on Saints. Line opened at -6 when schedule came out which was absurd. Let’s see if the line moves. If it stays at -4 I’ll take the dog. It’s a stay away for now.

Dallas (-3) at L.A. Rams – Feels like they’re in a bad spot. Dallas has a ton of weapons on offense. Defense is very shaky but if they can get a pass rush on Goff, they’ll be okay. Not a bet I love and i’d probably wait to see if line goes down to -2.5. Probably won’t since Dallas is a public team.

Team Win Totals

Ravens over (11 with juice to over) – Very easy schedule. Only travel 6k miles on the season (some teams are between 25k-30k of travel miles). 14-2 last year. Loaded and did well in the draft (Patrick Queen, JK Dobbins, plenty of offensive line help, DLineman in the third round and a very underrated WR out of Texas in Duvernay and Proche from SMU). Also got James Daka as an UDFA out of JMU. Edge rusher with 16.5 sacks last year (I went to JMU).

Steelers over (8.5 with juice to over) – Easy schedule (NFC East/AFC South out of division). People falling asleep on them. Great defensive front. They get their QB back. Weapons at WR (Juju, Claypool, DJohnson and James Washington) and TE (Ebron/Vance) and RB with Conner and Macfarland.

Bengals under (6) – Someone has to be the big loser in this division. Looking at their schedule I can find 5 wins but not 6. Certainly not 7 so you’re worst case feels like a push. Small miracle if this team gets anywhere near 7 games.

Giants under (6.5) (AFC North/NFC West) – I know Michael covered them but thought id touch on them too (maybe it’s good to reinforce?). Under is a good bet here. Schedule is tough. Just seems like such a good play felt right to reinforce it.

Broncos over (7.5) (AFC East/NFC South) – Not the easiest schedule but still like it. Won 4 of last 5 games last year. 3 of first 5 on the road but that’s not a bad thing. Pass rush should be good. Improved OLine. Good OC in Pat Shurmur. Loaded at RB (Gordon and Lindsay) and WR (Jeudy, Sutton, KJ Hamler) and talent at TE. I believe in Drew Locke.

Cowboys over (9.5) – Defense has to be decent and then they’ll cruise in a weak division.

Super Bowl Winners

Ravens at 7 to 1 – Best team in the NFL. 14-2 last year. 4th easiest schedule per Warren Sharp metric. Absolutely loaded up in the draft on offense and defense (Dobbins/Queen/Duvernay/Proche/OL/DL/Daka out of JMU (16.5 sacks last year). Only travel 6,000 miles on the entire season (compare that to most NFC/AFC West teams which can travel 25-30 thousand miles).

Cowboys at 18 to 1 – Competitive NFC but this is a real team which now has a real coach which upgraded in a big way in the draft. Defense is suspect but these are solid odds. I like the Cowboys +110 to win the NFC East as well.

Steelers at 28 to 1 – 7th easiest schedule per Warren Sharp metric (NFC East/AFC South). Steelers got to 8 wins with basically no QB. Juju healthy. BigBen healthy. Stout defense. Upgrades on offense at RB and WR plus solid core of young WRs (Johnson/Washington). Only two legitimate teams in the AFC so there is a chance for Steelers to make some noise.

Division Winners

Bucs +105 versus the Saints +110 [NFC South]
Saints added Emmanuel Sanders and a few pieces on defense in free agency. Solid draft with Baun at LB, Ruiz at Center, Troutman at TE. May take a while for Bucs to get acclimated. And let’s not forget Brady is 100 years old. Bucs offense should still be lethal but not sure they’re fit to take over in the NFC South. I do like what Bucs did in grabbing Wirfs in first round to shore up OLine and like Ke’Shawn Vaughn to be a potential sneaky star at RB.

Packers +170 versus Vikings +165 [NFC North]
Just seems like the Pack may fall apart this year. Won a lot of close games last year and I expect regression there. No help for ARod on offense. Vikings got a headache out of the locker room in Diggs and filled his position in the draft with Jefferson. Vikings addressed every need in first two rounds with a WR, CB, and a Tackle. 15 picks overall and this is suddenly a young team on the rise with a veteran QB and an elite pair of RB’s

Cowboys +100 versus Eagles +140 [NFC East]
Seems like Cowboys have the easier schedule. Eagles a very solid team but Wentz certainly an injury risk and Eagles draft didn’t address needs like the Cowboys did. Cowboys did lost Byron Jones (and Philly gained Slay) but Cowboys drafted 2 CBs with their first 4 picks and now have elite weapons all over the offense. Eagles first two picks with Reagor and Hurts may have very minimal impact in 2020.

Niners +115 versus Seahawks +225 [NFC West]
At some point Russell Wilson is going to have a problem carrying this entire team. Niners get almost everyone back. Buckner gone but they filled his spot with Javon Kinlaw. Got Brendan Aiyuk from ASU. Team is loaded and getting value at +115. Hawks draft seemed full of reaches with Jordyn Brooks and Darrell Taylor with first two picks.

Jason’s NFL Futures Bets for 2020

Make sure to follow Jason on Twitter at @jasonmezrahi and talk to him about his picks in our Free Expert Chat on Discord.

Division Winners

Bucs 12 to 1
Already locked it in at 15 to 1 and I don’t mind it here at 12 to 1. This offense is going to be good to great. Their Run D was good enough. Their secondary was terrible. Licht also made other big moves this offseason, keeping NFL sack leader Shaq Barrett, and bringing back veteran defenders in Jason Pierre-Paul and Ndamukong Suh. He also made sure he landed one of the best offensive tackle prospects in the 2020 NFL Draft, trading up for Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs. Though he has taken his share of grief for his misses in recent years, much of which he admits he deserves, Licht deserves every bit of praise he’s getting for the bold moves he’s made this offseason to make the Bucs a legitimate contender. We’ll see if the on-field results match the hype this fall, but at this point, Licht and the Bucs have been big winners this offseason.

Eagles 17 to 1
Picking up Darius Slay covered a major whole in that philadelphia secondary and if Carson and the wide receiving crew can stay healthy they can cruise thru a weak NFC east and lock up a possible home playoff game. I love what sanders brings to this offense, combined with the two tight end set of Ertz and Goeddert, and hopefully a healthy Alshon, Desean and rookie Reagor this offense can be explosive.

Cardinals 60 to 1
The Cardinals have been busy this offseason. They acquired WR DeAndre Hopkins in a trade that sent RB David Johnson to the Houston Texans. They re-signed RB Kenyan Drake and LT D.J. Humphries. They added DL Jordan Phillips and LBs Devon Kennard and De’Vondre Campbell in free agency. They selected LB Isaiah Simmons (Clemson) in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft and added OL Josh Jones (Houston), DL Leki Fotu (Utah) and DL Rashard Lawrence (LSU) with their next three picks.

Team Win Totals

Overs
Ravens – 11
49ers – 10.5
Broncos – 7.5

Unders
Giants – 6.5
Jets – 6.5
Rams – 8
Bills – 9

I hope you can make some money on our NFL Futures Bets for 2020, I think these are some solid plays for the year. Considering we don’t know what it will look like, it should be fun either way!

Make sure to hop in our Free Expert Chat on Discord to ask us all questions!

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Divisional Weekend DFS DraftKings and FanDuel Slate Preview – Best Values and GPP Stacks

adam.sardinha1@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by adam.sardinha1@gmail.com

Welcome to my preview for the Divisional Weekend DFS slate. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for all four games this weekend. Are you ready for some playoff DFS action? All prices discussed are via DraftKings and FanDuel (DraftKings Price/FanDuel Price).

Divisional Weekend DFS – Minnesota at San Francisco – 4:35 PM EST Opening Line: 49ers -6 | Over/Under 45

The first thing about this game is the line movement from the open. It started at 45 in total and is up to 44 from Sunday. Via TeamRankings.com since the start of the 2014 NFL season, there have been 256 games where the closing line favored the home team by 6 to 8 points. In these games: The team like San Francisco won the game 184 times (71.9%). The team like Minnesota won the game 71 times (27.7%). The team like Minnesota did better against the spread, going 128-116-12 (52.5% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.5 points.

Quarterbacks

From a quick glance, these quarterbacks look like some of the least appealing on the slate. Kirk Cousins ($5,700/$7,600) will be facing off versus a vicious 49ers defensive front that is getting healthier. Cousins played well last week, but still only ended up with 13.58 fantasy points. So even if Cousins can duplicate is efforts from last week, that may not translate to fantasy success. Of the two quarterbacks, I prefer Jimmy Garroppolo ($5,600/$7,800) who is the cheaper quarterback on DraftKings but only as a target in larger-field GPPs. Minnesota is down a lot of cornerbacks and its weaknesses are in its secondary. The 49ers this season have averaged 7.9 yards per pass attempt which ranks second-best in the NFL.

Defenses

For defenses overall on this slate, the Vikings DST ($2,700/$3,700) seems like the safest pay-down option. They have scored at least eight fantasy points over six straight weeks. The 49ers DST ($3,000/$4,600) I would only play on DraftKings, as the clear-cut choice for best pay-up DST is Kansas City ($3,200/$4,200) on FanDuel.

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($8,000/$8,000) arguably is the best running back on the Divisional DFS Weekend slate especially on FanDuel where he is only the third-highest price running back. He is seeing and touching the ball too much to not have him as a core piece in your lineups. As for the 49ers backfield, Raheem Mostert ($5,800/$6,700) is the lead back, but with the other SF running backs healthy, I am sure they will cut into his production. I would prefer to use some more salary and pay up to get to Damien Williams ($6,000/$6,900) who should see more touches and is just $200 more on both sites. The Vikings defense is not good at defending running backs in the passing game, so on DraftKings, Matt Breida ($3,300/$5,000) is an interesting name to consider, because there is a chance they have been saving him for the playoffs.

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

There’s no tougher matchup for George Kittle ($6,200/$7,400) than his spot this week. No team has been better other than the Green Bay Packers versus tight ends over the last four weeks of the season. We saw it last with Jared Cook as well who went just five receptions for 54 yards. That being said you need Kittle to smash in this spot, and at his price, it might just make more sense to have more exposure for Travis Kelce ($6,400)/$7,500).

For the Minnesota receivers, both have now popped up on the injury report which means I am limiting my exposure to Stefon Diggs ($5,600/$6,800). He has a brutal track record of underperforming in games where he was on the injury report leading up to that game. The 49ers are strong versus deep passes and Diggs lead the NFL in yards per reception this season. In most cases, I would rather just pay-down to get to either Deebo Samuel ($5,200/$6,100) or Emmanuel Sanders ($5,400/$5,700). Samuel is cheaper on DraftKings and Sanders is cheaper on FanDuel. I like both of them in this spot versus the Minnesota secondary that is dealing with a ton of injuries. Samuel gets rushing attempts which is a plus, and Sanders is actually coming off his first bye week of the season! Remember he was traded to San Francisco after their bye week in Week 4, so he has played 17 straight weeks. He says he feels relieved and much better heading into this game after a lackluster final three-game stretch (eight receptions for 95 yards).

Adam Thielen ($6,200/$6,900) is still the receiver you want in Minnesota if he plays. Over the last four weeks, no team allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers than the 49ers.

Divisional Weekend DFS – Titans @ Ravens – 8:15 PM EST Opening Line: Baltimore -10 | Over/Under 48

Quarterbacks, Defenses

The line on this game has just gone down since it opened at 48 down to 46.5. Not a sign that Vegas considers this game a shootout and it should not be considering both teams want to run the football which shortens the game. But for Lamar Jackson ($8,400)/$9,400) it does not really matter. Play him in cash games, and use him in GPPs in Divisional Weekend DFS. But with which Ravens player should you pair him with? Well, the Ravens DST ($3,600/$4,800) is also in a smash spot as the Titans have allowed 3.4 sacks per game the third-highest average in the NFL.

Running Backs

Mark Ingram has been labeled day-day and I am concerned that even after a two-week absence he is not ready to go. It has been reported that he will play but there is a strong chance that he could be limited in this game, which means Gus Edwards ($4,900/$5,400) would become a lock, especially on FanDuel. In Ingram’s absence in Week 17 behind back-up offensive lineman and RG3 at quarterback versus a great Steelers’ defense Edwards did work. He carried 21 times for 130 yards. If Ingram is active I love him in GPPs. The same goes for Justice Hill ($3,900/$4,800) on FanDuel. He is way too cheap over there.

Derrick Henry ($8,200)/($9,600) looks to be really popular in this spot coming off a massive game where absolutely dominated the New England Patriots. However, he is far from a lock for me because this game script is going to be harder to project the Titans playing with a lead. He is also very expensive on both sites, so I would not be touching him heavily on DraftKings. However, you must keep in mind that the Baltimore defense is weak through its run defense. At home this season the Ravens have allowed 4.9 yards per attempt, which was worse than the Carolina Panthers. If the game script somehow goes in the Titans favor than Henry could rack up points quickly with a 25 touch workload looking very projectable. The Ravens can also be exposed versus heavier personnel packages. Versus 12-personnel Baltimore allowed a 48% success rate and 4.5 yards per attempt this season.

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

I think Marquise Brown ($4,400)/$5,300) finds himself in a sweet spot on both sites. He is priced down significantly and has a massive upside that you usually cannot get from the receiver at his salary. He can help round out a GPP stack with Jackson. Also, cornerback Adoree Jackson will be returning for Tennesse but he has been dealing with a foot injury, while Brown has not been on the injury report at all this week. That despite being on it almost every week during the regular season. Mark Andrews ($5,600/$6,800) will also be good to go and the matchup is also great for him. The Titans allowed the seventh-most yards to tight ends this season and allowed Ben Watson to be second on the Patriots in receptions and yards last week. Andrews is a great pivot off Kelce/Kittle.

On the side of the Titans A.J. Brown ($6,000)/($7,400) had been on absolute fire but was shut down last week. I am not looking to fade Brown this week, because the Titans should be forced to throw the ball more versus the Ravens. We also got a $1,400 discount on him on DraftKings down to 6K. On the season the Ravens allowed the third-most targets, seventh-most receptions, and sixth-most red-zone targets to receivers. The Ravens also ranked number one versus the tight end, so I am looking elsewhere for a cheap tight end than in this game.

Divisional Weekend DFS – Texans @ Chiefs – 3:05 PM EST Opening Line: New Orleans -8.0| Over/Under 49

Quarterbacks, Defenses

When we want to target games for DFS we look for games where the totals are moving up. This is the case here with Houston @ KC, where the line opened at 49 and has moved up to 51 with the Chiefs getting two more points in the process. They are now favored by ten. Patrick Mahomes ($7,500/$8,600) is a great option in cash and GPPs if you cannot afford to pay up for Jackson. Houston was the fourth-worst ranked defense in terms of fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks in 2019. That being said the more contrarian approach will be targeting the other QB Deshaun Watson ($6,700/$8,300). He is a nice late-swap pivot if your Mahomes lineups are not looking great after the first two games. I like the savings more on DrafKings than on FanDuel where you only shave off $300. I alluded to it earlier, but I also love the Chiefs DST ($3,200/$4,200) especially on FanDuel. Watson was sacked seven times last week and this season has been sacked an average of 3.3 times per game.

Running Back

You have to lock-in, Damien Williams. With his increased workload, and the salary he is too easy to jam into lineups. Houston on the season ranked fifth-worst versus the running back position and gave up the second-most receptions to the position.

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($6,400/$7,500) is the clear-cut number one tight end option on the slate. The Texans over the last four weeks rank fourth-worst versus the position. Kelce has yet to see less than nine targets in five of his past six games. Darren Fells ($3,500/$5,200) should only be rostered if we see Jordan Akins miss again. Kansas City allowed the second-most targets to the tight end position over the 2019 season and ranked third in touchdowns at the position.

The Houston defense allows a ton of completions towards the middle of the field, but ranks fourth-best versus deep passes. However, Tyreek Hill ($7,600/$7,900) should see enough work in the slot versus Vernon Hargreaves who is one of the single-worst cornerbacks left in the NFL playoffs. Hill’s ceiling is too high to not have exposure and he should dominate. I do prioritize Kelce first in builds. I like Hill on FanDuel more where he is cheaper than DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400/$8,100). Not sure if I will be too heavy on Hopkins especially as Will Fuller ($5,000/$5,600) makes his probable return. I love Fuller in GPPs because the last time he played Kansas City he almost had three touchdowns but dropped them. Still, the plays were there, and I think in the playoffs he makes them this time around.

Divisional Weekend DFS – Seahawks @ Packers – 6:40 PM EST Opening Line: Green Bay -4.0| Over/Under 46

Quarterbacks, Defenses

Russell Wilson ($6,600)/($7,900) has struggled in his few games at Lambeau Field. Just three combined passing touchdowns and six interceptions in his three career games there. Overall versus Green Bay Wilson has never thrown for more than 225 yards or two passing touchdowns. So with the quarterbacks here I lean towards Aaron Rodgers ($6,500/$8,100) especially on DraftKings where is priced lower than Wilson. Rodgers is averaging over 20 DraftKings points per game at home this season. Green Bay is averaging over 260 passing yards per game at home this season (sixth-highest), with 1.8 passing touchdowns per game. I also think the Green Bay DST ($2,800/$4,400) is a very usable DST on DraftKings in the mid-range price. Seattle’s offensive line is really banged up. Packers ranked top-four in forced turnovers per game at home.

Running Back

Aaron Jones ($7,400/$8,200) is in a killer-spot here versus the Seahawks atrocious run defense. Over the last four weeks, they allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the position and the most rushing touchdowns.

Pete Carroll also talked up getting more Marshawn Lynch ($4,800/$6,000) involved, which I think you need to get some exposure to especially because of Lynch’s workload near the goal line. Green Bay has allowed an average of one rushing touchdown per game, so there is a three-touchdown game in Lynch’s outcomes that needs to be accounted for.

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

Tyler Lockett ($6,600/$6,700) is cheaper than DK Metcalf ($6,800/$7,100) on both sites this week and I will surely be buying him at the discount. Lockett is still seeing targets; he had eight last week and not fewer than seven in the previous three.

For the value, I also love using guys like Allen Lazard ($4,500/$5,400) and Jimmy Graham ($3,300/$5,000). It’s a #revengegame for Graham and a great matchup. The Seahawks were the second-worst team versus the tight end this year only behind the Arizona Cardinals. Also, Graham is coming off his second-highest target total (seven) of the season. Speaking of targets that is also why I like Lazard. He has 17 targets in his last two games. The Seattle defense is overrated.

Image via Keith Allison

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 17 DFS TE and DST NFL Picks: Kelce and Company

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

It’s time for our Week 17DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs)and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win!

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Week 17 DFS Tight End CashGame Plays

Travis Kelce, KC vs. LAC

FD($7,500) DK ($7,000)

With the Chiefs needing a win to secure a first-round bye, expect Kelce and the Chiefs to come out firing against the Chargers. While they are utilizing their backs a lot in this one, Kelce racked up 7-92-1 in the Week 11 meeting between the two teams and makes for a fine play in all formats.

Dallas Goedert, PHI at NYG

FD($6,400) DK ($4,900)

While Zach Ertz (ribs, back) resumed practicing on Friday, Goedert still projects to be heavily involved in the Eagles offense this weekend as they try to clinch a division title and make the playoffs. Ertz is nursing some painful injuries and may not be at 100 percent even if he’s active, and it’s obvious the Eagles trust Goedert as a primary receiving option even when Ertz is logging heavy snaps. He’s a fine cash game play on DK and FD.

Week 17 DFS Tight End GPP Plays

Austin Hooper, ATL at TB

FD($6,000) DK ($5,800)

The price took a big jump on DraftKings, but Hooper couldbe Matt Ryan’s most popular target in Week 17 in a matchup at Tampa Bay. TheBucs rank 29th against TEs on DK and Julio Jones could be out, funneling moretargets to Hooper. With Calvin Ridley on IR and the running game a somewhat unappealingoption against the stout run defense, we could see a huge game from the bigFalcons TE.

Darren Waller, OAK at DEN

FD($6,200) DK ($5,400)

Waller disappointed last week as the Raiders didn’t havemuch need to throw the ball in the second half as they salted away a win using heavydoses of DeAndre Washington, but this time around they could be forced intomore passing. The matchup is a tough one but Waller had as solid Week 1 againstthe Broncos (7-70-0 on eight targets) and he’ll garner low ownership at anaffordable price.

Hunter Henry, LAC at KC

FD($6,000) DK ($4,500)

Henry had another ho-hum game in Week 16 and remains a riskin DFS, but he could be forced into more pressing duties facing the Chiefs inWeek 17. He had 6-69-0 against the division rival in Week 12 and remains one ofthe top 10 fantasy TEs with some big-game upside. He’s also very affordable onDK.

Week 17 DFS Tight End PuntPlays

O.J.Howard, TB vs. ATL

FD ($5,700) DK ($4,200)

Howard started the season off slowly but now has at leastthree catches and 46 yards in four straight games. This could be the week he getsin the end zone, and he makes for an affordable GPP Bucs passing game stackalong with Jameis Winston and either Breshad Perriman or Justin Watson.

KadenSmith, NYG vs. PHI

FD($5,300) DK ($3,700)

The Giants have relied on Smith quite a bit the past few weeks, and he’s shown to have a nose for the end zone, with 6-35-2 last week in the OT win over Washington. He’s on the GPP radar for Week 17, even in a tough matchup against Philly.

Additional Week 17 DFS GPP andpunt options:

TylerHigbee, LAR vs. ARI (FD $6,900, DK $5,600) – Cash or GPP

JaredCook, NO at CAR (FD $6,800, DK $5,200) – GPP only

JonnuSmith, TEN at HOU (FD $5,800, DK $4,200) – GPP punt

NoahFant, DEN vs. OAK (FD $5,600, DK $3,600) – GPP punt

Week 17 DFS DST Cash GamePlays

Baltimore Ravens (BAL vs. PIT)

FD($4,900) DK ($3,100)

The Ravens look like apretty safe play in cash games against a Steelers offense that has major QB issuesand nothing to play for. I’m locking them into cash games, especially on DK atjust $3,100.

Indianapolis Colts (IND at JAC)

FD ($4,800) DK ($3,200)

I’m not excited aboutplaying the Colts, but they’re a fine cash game play facing the Jaguars – whocould be without RB Leonard Fournette. They have an excellent matchup and the priceis plenty affordable on DK.

Also consider: Minnesota Vikings (DK), BuffaloBills

Week 17 DFS DST GPP Plays

New England Patriots (NE vs.MIA)

FD($4,700) DK ($4,300)

The Pats are expensive and there’s some risk rolling them out againsta Dolphins offense that’s looked a heck of a lot better the past few weeks. Butthis defense can score points and there’s no reason to avoid them in GPPs.

New Orleans Saints (NO at CAR)

FD($5,000) DK ($4,000)

The Panthers QBs have been throwing lots ofinterceptions the past few weeks and this Saints DST takes advantage ofmistakes. I’ll downgrade them a bit if they’re missing Vonn Bell at safety, butthey’re in consideration for GPPs.

Alsoconsider: Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys

Week 17 DFS DST PuntPlays

Green Bay Packers (GB vs. NYG)

FD($4,800) DK ($3,000)

They’re overpriced on FanDuel, but they’re a punt on DraftKings at just $3K. The Lions are a mess right now and the Packers DST is filled with playmakers who capitalize on bad throws and poor blocking. They’re worth plugging in for both cash and GPP on DK.

Denver Broncos (DEN vs. OAK)

FD($4,600) DK ($3,300)

Again, I’m not interested in FD, but the price on DK in a favorable home matchup is just too good to pass up. The Raiders have played better lately, but they do have some injury issues to navigate and the Broncos DST will look to close out the season on a high note.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 14 DFS TE and DST NFL Picks: Kittle and Crew

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

It’s time for our Week 14 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chatsand more!

Week 14 DFS Tight End CashGame Plays

George Kittle, SF at NO

FD ($6,700) DK ($5,900)

The high-price tight ends haven’t been as reliable as we’d like and Kittle is coming off a disappointing performance against the Ravens, but he’s a lock-n-load cash game play this week facing the Saints indoors. If you’re not looking for value, I’m fine using big George here.

Darren Waller, OAK vs. TE

FD ($6,200) DK ($5,800)

With Josh Jacobs a true game-time decision, I’ll be snaggingadditional shares of Waller as his usage should probably increase in Week 14. Thebig TE caught 7-100-0 on nine targets last week vs. the Chiefs, and he’s a goodcash game play again facing the Titans.

Jack Doyle, IND at TB

FD($6,300) DK ($4,600)

Doyle is a solid play in all formats this week though hisprice has come up substantially after a big Wek 13 performance (6-73-1 on 11 targets).He’s worth considering for cash games and GPPs.

Week 14 DFS Tight End GPP Plays

Travis Kelce, KC at NE

FD($7,100) DK ($6,200)

We’re getting a huge price break on Kelce thisweek on DK, but he remains the top priced TE on both sites. As consistent asany tight end in football, but he’s relegated to GPP-only this week against thePatriots.

Hunter Henry, LAC at JAC

FD ($6,400) DK ($5,100)

Henry was a disaster last week but is in a good bounce-backspot facing the Jaguars in Week 14. Even after the stinker in Denver, he’saveraging around 62 receiving yards per game – so I’m willing to give himanother shot in GPPs in Week 14.

Mark Andrews, BAL vs. BUF

FD ($6,600) DK ($5,600)

Andrews is somewhatmatchup proof and did well against the top-rated defense against TEs last week,so we should have shares of him in GPPs. He’s facing the Bills this time around,and they’ve done a good job defending TEs.

Austin Hooper, ATL vs. CAR

FD ($6,600) DK ($6,000)

Hooper doesn’t have an injury designation and returns froma three-game absence, and we’re hoping he’ll continue his breakout season. TheFalcons also get Julio Jones back, so I’m looking at Hooper in GPP only. Thisgame could get pretty high-scoring.

Ryan Griffin, NYJ vs. MIA

FD($5,600) DK ($4,100)

We discussed how Griffin isn’t a lock-and-load value playanymore, but now he’s questionable with an illness that limited him in practiceon Thursday and Friday. He has a good matchup against the Dolphins if he suitsup and isn’t facing a snap count.

Week 14 DFS Tight End PuntPlays

VanceMcDonald, PIT at ARI

FD ($5,800) DK ($4,300)

McDonaldmakes the value play list this week because of the matchup against the Cards,who just cannot stop TEs. He’s been quiet lately, but the Steelers need to getoffense from somewhere in this game, and McDonald is a low-risk optionconsidering the price and the opponent.

MikeGesicki, MIA vs. PHI

FD($5,400) DK ($4,000)

Gesickijust keeps producing, and $4K is still too cheap for what he brings to thetable. The Jets defense is a wreck right now and the Miami offense has beenclicking. Get Gesicki in there if you need salary relief.

Kyle Rudolph, MIN vs. DET

FD ($4,800) DK ($4,400)

Rudolph is a top value play this week facing the Lions, andhe has at least four catches in his last three games. That sounds even betterwhen you factor in his red zone usage – as he’s scored five TDs in his lastfour contests.

Additional Week 14 DFS GPP andpunt options:

IanThomas, CAR at ATL (FD $4,000, DK $2,500) – Punt Cash or GPP (He’s this week’sTyler Higbee)

JaredCook, NO vs. SF (FD $6,500, DK $4,200) – GPP only in tough matchup

DavidNjoku, CLE vs. CIN (FD $4,900, DK $3,500) – Risky GPP but high upside

Week 14 DFS DST Cash GamePlays

Green Bay Packers (GB vs. WAS

FD($5,000) DK ($4,000)

The Packers have themost favorable matchup of the week (at home vs. WAS) and are an option in allformats. They aren’t cheap, but if you’re spending up, just plug them in.

Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT at ARI)

FD($4,300) DK ($3,500)

The Steelers DST isstill way to cheap and you get a nice discount on both sites. This unit is almosta lock for 10 points every week.

Week 14 DFS DST GPP Plays

Minnesota Vikings (MIN vs. DET)

FD ($4,800) DK ($3,800)

This isn’t a high-scoring defense, but the matchup could yield 10+points if they can create some turnovers. If the Vikings can salt this one awaywith the running game, it’ll help the cause of the DST.

Cleveland Browns (CLE vs. CIN)

FD($4,600) DK ($3,600)

Andy Dalton is back for the Bengals, but I don’tthink he’ll be having a lot of fun against the bruising Browns unit that stompedthe Steelers a couple weeks ago.

Week 14 DFS DST PuntPlays

Los Angeles Chargers (LAC atJAC)

FD($4,600) DK ($2,800)

Probably a DK play only.It’s risky because they are on the road, but the matchup in Jacksonville couldsee the Chargers DST notching their best week since Week 5 against the Broncos.

Indianapolis Colts (IND vs. TB)

FD($4,000) DK ($2,400) Last week we had the Jags againstthe Bucs, and that wasn’t even a mistake despite the Jags taking the loss. TheColts are a similar risk but this matchup bodes well for GPPs.

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports

DFS: Injuries- Dalvin Cook/Fades/Plays

Brandon C. Williams 5 years ago

written by Brandon C. Williams

Week 14 is here and the window to hit big in NFL DFS is closing soon. Read my injury analysis of Dalvin Cook and the fades/plays across the league to help optimize your lineups. Let’s get to it. Note that all of the following prices are from FanDuel.

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Josh Jacobs ($7,400)

Jacobs came out this week and said that he has a “fractured shoulder” and he “just plays through it” which I find extremely odd. The assumption here is that if the shoulder is truly fractured, the medical staff doesn’t believe it is bad enough to shut him down. The most commonly fractured parts of the shoulder are the upper arm and the shoulder blade, but really there’s no way to know exactly what the injury is. What we do know is that Jacobs has seen a significant decline in targets in neutral and negative game scripts going from 5 to 3 to 1, and somehow to 0 (that’s zero) targets in a 40-9 loss to the Chiefs in Week 14. This decline in targets correlates perfectly with a shoulder injury as any type of scapulothoracic and glenohumeral elevation (i.e. raising arms to catch a ball)

With that said, Jacobs is a fade in cash games for me and I’m not confident using him in tournaments either until further notice. Unfortunately, neither Jalen Richard or Deandre Washington are usable in either formats.

Greg Olsen ($4,900)

Olsen is dealing with his third documented concussion which means he’s entered the point of no return in terms of predicting a quick return to play. It also doesn’t help that he’s nearing age 35 and the brain’s plasticity naturally declines with age. All of this means that Olsen is in legitimate jeopardy of missing Sunday’s game against the Falcons. He didn’t practice on Wednesday, and if he’s inactive on Sunday, Ian Thomas ($4,000) becomes an enticingly cheap option against the Falcons who’s defense gives up passing yards like it’s their job. Consider Thomas a cash game play in order to jam in your studs on this slate.

Update: Olsen did not practice Thursday again. He’ll have to clear protocol before early Sunday morning to play.

Taylor Gabriel ($8,00)

Gabriel remains in the concussion protocol following his second of the season and is in jeopardy to miss Week 14. In his absence Anthony Miller ($10,500) has come into his own as a second year starter and makes for an excellent tournament play in a game that the Bears should be down. Consider Miller a play in cash games as well in the showdown slate.

Update: Gabriel has officially been ruled out.

Dalvin Cook ($8,700)

If I title my DFS article “Injuries- Dalvin Cook/Fades/Plays” I should probably give a thorough analysis on Dalvin Cook, so here it goes. Tuesday Mike Zimmer said Cook is “fine” and didn’t offer many details about the injury. Cook offered us more insight and said his injury is “weird” but that he’ll be good to go for Week 14. He also added that the defender who caused the fumble “hit him good” in the spot that has been bothering him since the Vikings played the Broncos. Although the video of Cook fumbling in the third quarter is not great, the fact that the injury is labeled by the team as “chest” coupled with the video itself, leads me to believe that Dalvin Cook is dealing with a sternoclavicular (SC) joint injury.

Now, these injuries can be very painful but much like the AC joint, the potential for dislocation is the primary concern. If Cook takes a hit in the right spot, the clavicle can be knocked out of socket causing a whole host of issues that would land him on the IR.

With all that said, Cook has a decent chance to play this week depending on his practice activity, so be sure to check back in with me during the week. This injury makes Cook a fade in cash which is unfortunate considering this salivating matchup with Detroit who is awful against the run. The risk of dislocation and/or re-injury to the SC joint is too great for me personally trust him. Even if Cook is active, there is a chance that Alexander Mattison’s ($5,100) role is expanded to protect Cook in what should be an easy win for the Vikings. Obviously Mattison is the play here in tournaments, but consider pivoting to the Vikings defense ($4,800) in cash who should bully rookie David Blough now that he’s put some game on film.

Adam Thielen ($7,300)

It is obvious at this point that Thielen’s hamstring injury was made much worse by him trying to come back too early in Week Nine. He did not practice on Wednesday, but Thursday and Friday will be much more telling. Regardless, I can’t see Thielen playing this week, but even if he does he’s a fade in all formats due to the injury’s history. This vaults Stefon Diggs ($8,000) into consideration for cash games and tournaments as his floor and ceiling have been solid with Thielen out.

Update: Thielen did not practice again on Thursday and will need to at least participate in Friday’s practice to have a shot to play. I’m not confident in this happening.

Julio Jones ($7,800)

Jones is recovering from (what I believed to be) an AC sprain that he suffered in Week 12. The consensus from the reports are that Julio would have given it a go on Thanksgiving if not for the quick Thursday turnaround. Although Jones has not provided many ceiling games this season, I like him as a contrarian play in cash games this week against an atrocious Carolina defense that just fired their defensive minded coach Ron Rivera.

Austin Hooper ($6,600)

Hooper is recovering from an MCL sprain that he suffered about a month ago. The injury was a grade II sprain and has kept him out of practice until Monday this week. He’s now on track to play on Sunday barring any setbacks, but he’s on my “prove it” list before I play him in cash games. If Hooper still cannot go on Sunday, consider Russell Gage ($5,700) in tournaments who has done just fine filling in for the injured pass catchers of the Falcons. Atlanta plays Carolina in Week 14, a franchise who just fired their head coach and is in disarray. This could be a big game for the Atlanta offense.

Tyler Lockett

Hear me out. I get it, Lockett has only one catch over two games, but we have to consider the circumstances. In Week Ten, Lockett suffered a significant contusion to his lower leg that caused a two night hospital stay. That contusion lingered through the bye and showed in Week 12 as he tied a season low 19 routes run, a number that has dipped that low only one other time all season. Then in Week 13, Lockett was dealing with the flu but still played against the Vikings. In that MNF game, Locket played a season low 87% of snaps and saw five fewer targets than his season average. These numbers come against a struggling Minnesota secondary that ranks 14th in pass DVOA. I get into the numbers in my tweet thread below:

https://twitter.com/FFStudentDoc/status/1202306747920273409?s=20

After the win on Monday night, Lockett was quoted as saying “I’ve been sick all week. I just want to go to bed.” What I’m saying here is that this is the window to play Tyler Lockett at low ownership in cash against a Rams secondary that is ranked 12th in pass DVOA.

Update: After not practicing on Thursday or Friday leading up to Week 13, Lockett is not even listed on the practice report for Week 14. As the kids say it might once again be Tyler Lockett SZN.

Evan Engram

Despite the fact that he hasn’t practiced since Week Nine, Engram has told reporters he’s optimistic about his return in Week 14. I’m not sold on this optimism as his foot injury has lingered as serious foot/ankle injuries tend to do. If Engram is active I’m fading him in cash. If he’s inactive yet again, fire up either Rhett Ellison (concussion) or Kaden Smith in tournaments against this Eagles defense who just got torched by the fightin’ Ryan Fitzpatricks.

Thank you for reading Injuries- Dalvin Cook/Fades/Plays. Hopefully I was able to provide some insight on this week’s injuries and provide potential fades/plays. Good luck in DFS this week!

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5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 11 DFS TE and DST NFL Picks: Andrews is Elite

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

It’s time for our Week 11 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate. I’m focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win big!

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Week 11 DFS Tight End CashGame Plays

Mark Andrews, BAL vs. HOU

FD ($6,900) DK ($6,100)

With 6-53-2 in Week 10, things worked out for Andrews, who we listed as our top GPP choice. There’s a dearth of viable cash game options this week, so even in a tough matchup against the Texans, Andrews is likely the best we’ve got. You can always spend down at TE in cash games and assume a little more risk since it’s a generally inconsistent position in terms of week-to-week production, but Andrews should be considered an elite TE at this point.

Jared Cook, NO at TB

FD ($6,000) DK ($4,400)

It’s a ugly week at TE. Cook rarely can be considered a lock forproduction, but he’s been remarkably consistent for the past three weeks withdouble-digit DK points in all three, and his 10 targets last week were aseason-high for him. His price has comeup on FD, but DK still has him listed as just $4,400, making him a huge bargainin a great matchup (TB ranks 31st against TEs)

Week 9 DFS Tight End GPP Plays

Darren Waller, OAK vs. CIN

FD ($6,700) DK ($5,500)

Waller has just as much upside as any TE this week based on matchup and typical volume, but Derek Carr is spreading the ball around more to his other TEs and WRs like Hunter Renfrow. Waller is worth a look in GPPs, but he’s no cash game lock.

Eric Ebron, IND vs. JAC

FD ($5,200) DK ($3,600)

Ebronis actually the discounted Colts TE this week, coming in at a remarkably low $3,600after a 12-target game in Week 10 against the Dolphins. His ownership might bea little higher than Doyle’s based on the pricing.

Jack Doyle, IND vs. JAC

FD ($5,400) DK ($4,000)

It’s fascinating to watch Doyle and Ebron flip back andforth on DK, with Doyle priced up this week despite just four targets to Ebron’s12 a week ago. Both make sense for GPPs, though it would take some hutzpah toplay them both together. That’s not recommended.

T.J. Hockenson, DET vs. DAL

FD ($5,300) DK ($3,900)

Hockenson gets a favorable matchup against Dallas, as the Cowboys are30th in the league against TEs based on DK points allowed. The rookie parlayedhis six targets into 3-47-0 last week facing the Bears, and he gets Jeff Driskelagain this week. He’s not a lock, but worth sprinkling into some GPPs.

Ross Dwelley, SF vs. ARI

FD ($4,900) DK ($3,400)

Dwelley only hauled in three of his seven targets last week,but he faces the worst defense in the league against TEs and should have moresuccess against the Cards than he did against Seattle. George Kittle is listedas doubtful for Week 11.

Week 9 DFS Tight End PuntPlays

TylerEifert, CIN at OAK

FD ($5,000) DK ($3,200)

Eifert’s stock is on therise, as theBengals have installed Ryan Finley down the stretch and a big-bodied, sturdytarget like Tyler could offer a security blanket for the rookie. This week hegets a favorable matchup against a Raiders team that has struggled in passdefense and will likely allow multiple dump-offs to Eifert and the RBs.

Ryan Griffin, NYJ at MIA

FD ($4,800) DK ($2,900)

Griffin gets no respect ion the DK pricing algorithm, andthat’s just fine with me. I’ll have tons of shares of the Jets TE, especiallywith Chris Herndon out for the season and no longer a threat to cut into hissnaps and targets.

Greg Olsen, CAR vs. ATL

FD ($5,100) DK ($3,900)

Olsen had 10 targetslast week and he could have a huge impact in this game if the Falcons stack thebox against CMC. I love the Panthers offense as a whole this week, as last week’sperformance vs. the Saints was probably an anomaly.

Kyle Rudolph, MIN vs. DEN

FD ($4,500) DK ($3,600)

FanDuel must have something against Rudolph, because he’s just $4,500 there. For a guy with four TDs in his last four weeks, that’s way too low. Use him in GPPs at TE or flex if you aren’t loading up on Dalvin Cook and the run game.

Additional Week 9 DFS GPP andpunt options:

ZachErtz, PHI vs. NE (FD $6,200, DK $5,000) – GPP

NoahFant, DEN at MIN (FD $5,100, DK $3,700) – GPP

O.J.Howard, TB vs. NO (FD $5,300, DK $3,600) – GPP

MikeGesicki, MIA vs. BUF (FD $5,100, DK $3,500) – GPP

BlakeJarwin, DAL at DET (FD $4,500, DK $2,900) – Punt

NickBoyle, BAL (FD $4,900, DK $2,700) – Punt

Week 11 DFS DST Cash GamePlays

Buffalo Bills (BUF at MIA)

FD ($5,000) DK ($3,800)

In Week 11, the Bills facethe Dolphins. They had a poor showing versus the Browns in Week 10 but scored10+ against this Miami team in Week 7 when Preston Williams was healthy andthey had more viable RBs. They offer a solid floor and upside this week and shouldbe a cash game staple, and the price on DK is still affordable.

New Orleans Saints (NO vs. ATL)

FD ($5,000) DK ($3,700)

With 14 sacks over theirpast four games, the Saints make for a solid option in all formats against abanged-up Falcons offensive unit. They’re cash-viable with 20-point upside inGPPs.

San Francisco 49ers (SF vs.ARI)

FD ($4,900) DK ($4,000)

The 49ers defense gets a favorable matchup and is one of thebest units in the game, and they didn’t take advantage a couple weeks ago in Arizona.Now, on their home turf, we could see a completely different story emerge. They’re solid play in all formats.

Week 11 DFS DST GPP Plays

New England Patriots (NE atPHI)

FD ($5,000) DK ($3,500)

This might be the cheapest you’ll see the Patriots defense the restof the way out this season on DK, where they’ve scored double digits in everyweek of the season except Week 9 and their bye. They should easily be $4Kagainst a banged-up Eagles team that’s lacking in consistent offensive options.The best option for GPPs (20+ upside) and cash-viable as well.

Minnesota Vikings (MIN vs. DEN)

FD ($4,700) DK ($3,400)

The Vikings defensive line must be licking theircollective chops at the prospect of going after Brandon Allen on their hometurf. This week could feature their highest DST score since the dropped 16 DKpoints on Atlanta in Week 1.

Oakland Raiders (OAK vs. CIN)

FD ($5,000) DK ($3,300)

The Raiders face one ofthe worst teams in the league, if not the worst, and should put plenty of pressureon Ryan Finley despite their issues with pass coverage. They might have a lowerflor than some of these other STs listed, but they have just as much upside asanyone except the Pats and Vikings.

Dallas Cowboys (DAL at DET)

FD ($4,100) DK ($3,600)

The Cowboys are relatively inexpensive, because they’re a risky bunchto get into shootouts and don’t create a ton of turnovers. They have muchhigher upside this week against a poor run defense (they can slow it down andyou can pair Ezekiel Elliott with the Cowboys DST in a few GPP builds)) and apositive game script for the defense against Jeff Driskel.

Indianapolis Colts (IND vs. JAC)

FD ($4,400) DK ($3,300)

TheColts are a boom-or-bust GPP play this week, as they face the Jaguars and NickFoles. I’m willing to consider them at home against a QB who could be rusty,especially sine they have a solid run defense and Foles might be forced to throwa bit more than he’d like in his first game back.

Week 11 DFS DST PuntPlays

New York Jets (NYJ at WAS)

FD ($4,500) DK ($3,100)

The Jets face a rookie QB (Dwayne Haskins) and have looked muchbetter defensively the past few weeks. They’re a viable play in all formatsthis week and still won’t cost you much.

Baltimore Ravens (BAL vs. HOU)

FD ($4,300) DK ($3,000)

The Ravens DST has a toughmatchup, but the Texans are not immune to mistakes. They’re a risky play butcheap on both sites and GPP viable.

Carolina Panthers (CAR vs. ATL)

FD ($3,700) DK ($3,000)

The Panthers might be my favorite punt defense this week in GPPs,because they have the best RB in fantasy and the Falcons are a mistake-prone groupmissing their top RB and TE Austin Hooper, a key safety valve for Matt Ryan.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Week – Click Here to Play and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

Pick the Players that will get the most Receptions

Goal: 21.5, Prize: 2x

Michael Thomas, Jared Cook and Mike Evans are my guys, though if youre skittish about using a TE you can go with Alvin Kamara or Chris Godwin.

5 years ago 0 comments

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