After numerous NBA teams kicked off their season yesterday, we have a mere four squads in action tonight. However, the stars are plentiful and two marquee matchups await us. Two perennial MVP candidates face off in a battle of two Eastern Conference powerhouses, while the battle of LA closes out the slate. It’s a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
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With Khris Middleton (wrist) ruled out for the first few weeks of the NBA season, Giannis Antetokounmpo will have to carry this Bucks offense. In addition, not only is Donte DiVincenzo now in Golden State, but Pat Connaughton (calf) is also missing for the opening month of action. The Bucks are suddenly thin on offense, and it will be up to Giannis and Jrue Holiday to carry the load. The former ended last season with a 29.9/11.6/5.8 scoring line on 55.3% shooting while leading his team with a 34.6% usage rate. Tonight, at the top of the pricing grid, he is far and away the premier option.
Despite James Harden stealing the show in a season opening loss for the 76ers, it was Joel Embiid who saw the most action on offense, as he did for the majority of last year’s NBA season. Pacing his squad with a 33% usage rate, Embiid failed to take advantage of early foul trouble for Al Horford and Noah Vonleh, but still led the team in field goal attempts and rebounds, while also getting to the charity stripe nine times.
Debating between the two Philadelphia stars tonight is an issue given their individual matchups. Embiid has to deal with Giannis and Lopez in the paint, while Harden sees a far more elite defender in Holiday than he did on opening night in Marcus Smart. Thus, I’ll be going back to the well with Tyrese Maxey. Despite a slow start, Maxey scored 21 points on 50% shooting, where 15 of his 21 points came in the second and fourth quarters. Not only did he play every second of those frames, but he was the go-to option on offense. Lining up against the likes of Wes Matthews and Grayson Allen, Maxey is one of the best Point/$ options on tonight’s NBA slate, let alone this Philadelphia offense.
The return of Kawhi Leonard is one of the best storylines this NBA season has to offer. After missing all of last year, Leonard looks to form a formidable duo with Paul George in the quest for a championship. Despite 2016-2017 being the last time he played over 70 games, Kawhi remains a top 10 talent in this league. In over 100 games played, Leonard sports a 30.8% usage rate during his Clippers tenure, averaging a 26/6/5.8 scoring line. Unless he is on a hard minutes limit, both he and George make for excellent tournament plays.
We can talk about Russell Westbrook and the Lakers’ shooting woes all we want, but truthfully, that isn’t where the issue lies. Yes, the Lakers shot an abysmal 10-for-40 from behind the arc on opening night, but it was Anthony Davis’ lack of aggressiveness in the paint the caught my eye. Despite playing against much weaker and smaller big men in the paint, Davis grabbed a mere six rebounds, while LeBron took down fifteen. Finishing second on the Lakers with 22 field goal attempts, in addition to nine free throws, Davis has the ceiling to be an elite target on any NBA slate, but remains to regain true form.
Firstly, the trio of Laker guards is a question mark tonight, as is what to do with LeBron James. You simply cannot fit James while playing one of George or Leonard alongside Giannis, so a decision has to be made. The public can say what they want about Westbrook, but he was efficient on opening night, dropping 19/11/3 on only twelve shots. He was pushing the pace and attacking the glass for rebounds. Kendrick Nunn remains an x-factor on offense in a supporting role off the bench, but his shot needs to drop for him to produce in NBA DFS. Lastly, Patrick Beverley will always be a wild card given his tenacity, but a game environment like this screams decent production. The usage will be modest throughout the season, but if he can stay out of foul trouble, the assists and rebounds will be there.
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The Hawks go as PG Trae Young ($8,300, DraftKings) goes. Young averaged 37.7 Fantasy points per game last season at DK and has the potential to become a consistent 40-45 FPPG player. He’ll make for a more affordable alternative to James Harden, Russell Westbrook and Steph Curry. C John Collins ($7,300, DK) averaged 36.9 FPPG and should be strongly considered for NBA DFS if you want in for this game. SF De’Andre Hunter ($4,000, DK) makes his NBA debut; not one to consider here, but worth watching to see how he flows into things.
Andre Drummond ($8,300, DK) opened with 32 points and 23 boards on Wednesday and is a strong option at C. You’ll pay for the rebounds and blocks. The scoring will be there as the Pistons go without Blake Griffin. PG/SG Derrick Rose ($5,400, DK) had 29.3 FP off the bench on Wednesday, but it will be hard to invest in a repeat effort. PG/SG Reggie Jackson ($5,300, DK) played just 20 minutes on Wednesday, so give Rose the edge here. Luke Kennard ($4,700, DK) scored 30 in the opener and is a value play considering the Hawks had one of the Association’s worst defenses.
Reigning league MVP and NBA DFS star Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,200, FanDuel) will be the anchor in the bulk of formats. SG Khris Middleton ($7,600, FD) offers premium scoring and should be able to hit his 33 FPPG rate of 2018-19. This might be one matchup that won’t fit C Brook Lopez ($5,800, FD), as he will be shadowed by Rockets C Clint Capela ($8,400, FD). PG Eric Bledsoe ($7,000, FD) is a game time decision (ribs), but I’d put good money that he’ll be in the starting lineup. He was seventh in steals (1.48) last season, yet this is one game where he’ll be overshadowed in that category.
The Rockets’ Great Experiment begins with PG Russell Westbrook ($10,000, FD) joins SG James Harden ($11,400, FD). The two combined for over 113 Fantasy points per game last season, and while there will be nights they’ll achieve this, tonight isn’t the night to stack them together. Give Harden the edge as the Bucks were 28th in stopping opposing SGs last season. Capela will still get enough trash baskets to merit starting him. He averaged 39.09 FPPG at FD last season and should be the best play outside of Drummond at C. Streaky SF Eric Gordon ($4,900, FD) is perhaps the only other Rockets player worth considering.
No shock here: SF Kawhi Leonard ($9,800, FD) is the best option on the Clippers, having scored 47.7 FD points on Tuesday. The Warriors are thin up front, making PF/C Montrezl Harrell ($7,000, FD) something of a bargain as he amassed 34.4 FD in the win over the Lakers. SG Lou Williams ($6,900, FD) could exceed the 38.5 FP he scored on Tuesday as he won’t have to worry about Klay Thompson blanketing him. He’s a good pairing with Westbrook in the backcourt. SF Moe Harkless ($4,900, FD) surprised with 32.79 FP on Tuesday coming off the bench.
NBA DFS King PG Steph Curry ($10,300, FD) will have the green light to attempt 25-30 shots. This could be a 50-55 FP night for him as the Warriors look to discover who else can offer offense outside of him and PF Draymond Green ($8,000, FD), who should be a good option up front. SG D’Angelo Russell ($8,200, FD) makes his Golden State debut. His style should fit well with the Warriors’ game pace. C Kevon Looney ($6,400, FD) has value now that he will see extended minutes as a starter. Those who love a deep toss of a gamble will like PF Marquese Chriss ($3,800, FD), whose athleticism and upside might have finally found a home after spending last season as a bench player with the Rockets and Cavaliers.
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Stephen Curry — Fifth in scoring last season, Curry will have a chance to compete for a scoring title as he takes the bulk of a Warriors offense without injured Klay Thompson and the departed Kevin Durant.
Kawhi Leonard — He was right behind Curry among last year’s top scorers. He was 10-for-19 from the field (1-for-5 beyond the arc) and 9-for-10 from the free throw line in his Clippers debut on Tuesday night.
My Pick — Curry has no Plan B around him, so don’t be shocked if he attempts 25-plus shots. Leonard will be the top scoring option in the Clips’ starting five, but elite sixth man SG Lou Williams has the potential to lead the team in scoring each night. It may not do wonders for Curry’s field goal percentage, but I’ll take him at the Over, with Leonard just scraping the under.
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