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Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($150 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Touchdown Dance.  This Sunday MKF is running a special contest where if you play in a $5+ Touchdown Dance contest and all 3 of your players score a touchdown you get share of the jackpot.  Today’s jackpot is $5,000! 

Let’s dig in and see if we can find sometouchdowns!

Touchdown Dance

Jonathan Taylor vs. Buffalo Bills

Jonathan Taylor is playing some insane football right now.  He’s on a stretch we haven’t seen in quite some time.  Since week 14 he has 14 rushing touchdowns and 2 receiving touchdowns.  Over the last 2 weeks he rushed for 5 touchdowns against 2 of the better rush defenses in the league. 

This week he gets a matchup vs. a Texans team that is one of only 6 teams to give up double digit rushing touchdowns on the year.  Look, anything can happen on any given Sunday.  But we’re talking about one of the best backs in the business against one of the worst rush defenses in the league.  Nothing is ever a lock, but Taylor is as close to a lock for a touchdown as there is this weekend.  Confidence Level – Bet the farm.

Joe Mixon vs. San Diego Chargers

Another team that has really struggled against the run?  Well look no farther than the San Diego Chargers.  On the year only the Jets have given up more rushing touchdowns than the Chargers.  Chargers have given up 14 rushing touchdowns this season.  They haven’t gone a game without giving up without giving up a rushing touchdown since week 4 against the Raiders. 

If we switch gears to talk about Mixon, well he’s been damn solid.  Over the past 2 weeks he’s rushed for close to 300 yards and has 4 touchdowns.  He’s scored multiple touchdowns in 4 straight and has found the end zone in all but 2 games this season.  The stars have aligned for Mixon and he has a solid chance to make it 5 straight with multiple touchdowns.  Confidence Level – High 

Miles Sanders vs. New York Jets

This pick is more matchup based than it is talent based as Sanders has yet to find the end zone this season.  Jets are one of the worst teams at defending the rush.  Over the past 4 weeks they’ve given up over 500 yards rushing and 6 touchdowns to running backs.  Everything is pointing to Sanders having a great game today. 

The Eagles will be without Jordan Howard and their “star” QB in Jalen Hurts.  All of those extra chances, especially in the red zone, should funnel to Sanders today.  If Sanders finally gets more than a couple of red zone looks today, he should be able to finally find the end zone.  Confidence Level – It’s the Eagles so I’m going with Medium

Touchdown Dance Wrap Up

Other guys I also liks this week are Alexander Mattison, Mike Evans, and Leonard Fournette.  With some really bad offenses on the field today, we should see a healthy amount of touchdowns. 

Good luck and hope to share the $5k with you!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! ! 

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The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 6 NFL DFS contests!NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.Let’s get to the game!Week 6 NFL DFS MVP candida...

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The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 3 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first TNF showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 3 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 3 NFL DFS Chalk: Dak Prescott (FD $16,000, DK $16,800)

Pivot: Jalen Hurts (FD $16,500, DK $16,500)

Contrarian #1: Ezekiel Elliott (FD $12,000, DK $12,600)

Contrarian #2: DeVonta Smith(FD $10,500, DK $10,800)

Contrarian #3: CeeDee Lamb (FD $12,500, DK $14,700)

FanDuel and DraftKings actually have Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts flip-flopped for the top-priced player, so that could some into play in determining who’s chalkier on either site. Hurts has the better matchup overall, but the Cowboys are favored by 3 points. We can probably pencil in Hurts at captain since he should have plenty of time to throw and use his legs, and I think Prescott is too expensive given both Amari Cooper‘s ribs issue (he’ll play with a flak jacket on and is a risk to reaggravate the injury) and the emergence of both Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard after Prescott’s huge Week 1. Playing Eagles WR DeVonta Smith at Captain could allow us to Hurts and a couple big-time Dallas players.

Eagles notes: Hurts is the main target for me because of what he can do with his legs as well. I’m interested in getting exposure to one or both of the Eagles TEs, though the production from Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz is just difficult to predict. The tight ends will have to be more involved than last Sunday, when Goedert didn’t have his first catch until the second half and finished the just two receptions (on two targets) for 24 yards. Ertz is off the COVID list now, and had just one reception (one target) for 6 yards in Week 2, but could see 3-5 targets this week. I don’t think Miles Sanders is a huge priority this week, though I might grab some Kenneth Gainwell exposure as a cheap play in a negative game script. Smith is the best option at WR, but I’ll have shares of Jalen Reagor given his upside.

Cowboys notes: We may be able to get away without Prescott, but there are avenues where we get both him and Hurts in some lineups. Ezekiel Elliott might be the top play from a contrarian perspective this week. I have little interest in Cooper, and will get most of my WR exposure with CeeDee Lamb and Cedrick Wilson. Pollard could be used as a WR as well, and I think both he and Zeke are in play this week for the Cowboys against the Eagles run defense. I’ll also have shares of Blake Jarwin and kicker Greg Zuerlein.

Week 3 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a Week 1 NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Go too heavy on the DSTs, which don’t offer much upside in a game that should exceed the 51-point game total.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Live in the sub-$1K range this week. There’s just no production there.

Now that we’ve established some Week 1 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Dak Prescott
  2. Jalen Hurts
  3. Ezekiel Elliott
  4. DeVonta Smith
  5. CeeDee Lamb
  6. Dallas Goedert
  7. Jalen Reagor
  8. Miles Sanders
  9. Amari Cooper (ribs)
  10. Kenneth Gainwell
  11. Tony Pollard
  12. Cedrick Wilson
  13. Dalton Schultz
  14. Blake Jarwin
  15. Quez Watkins
  16. Greg Zuerlein
  17. Zach Ertz
  18. Jake Elliott
  19. Eagles DST
  20. Cowboys DST

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!

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We are here ladies and gentlemen! Week one is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. And check out Adam’s fantastic Game by Game breakdown for week 1. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 1 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.12

I am going to put this at the top of my articles until the status quo changes. If you want to play Christian McCaffrey and can afford him, go for it. His floor/ceiling combination is unmatched from week to week. This just saves me a few minutes for every Running Back DFS Breakdown just stating the obvious.

***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***

GPP:

Derrick Henry, Titans, ($8,800DK/$8,900FD) 8.12% Own:

While much of the attention will go to running backs like Dalvin Cook (17.64% Ownership), Christian McCaffrey (22.21% Ownership), and Alvin Kamara (24.12% Ownership) there is a certain rushing title winner who is projected under 8% ownership. While everyone is concerned with the coaching changes for the Titans and the little red 10 next to Arizona’s ranking we find a prime GPP pivot to take advantage of. The Cardinals are 10th worst in rushing 1st downs allowed (118), 7th worst in YPC (4.6), and 11th worst in 1st Down % (27.1). Now, throw in the 3rd fastest pace, aggressive blitz tendencies, and that the Cardinals spend more time in nickel packages than any other team (4-2-5 base, cover one) and we can begin to see how a beast like Henry can break this GPP slate wide open.

Raheem Mostert, 49ers, ($5,800DK/$6,100FD) 5.14% Own:

All I needed was to see him in the final preseason game for a few snaps just to make sure his knee was ok and I knew he would end up somewhere in my article in week one. The Lions are a mess and the Niners are one of the most prolific rushing franchises over the last several seasons. Trey Sermon is going to get plenty of work, that much is certain, but Mostert does not need 18-20 carries to smash value. Week one last season, Mostert, on 15 carries only had 56 yards rushing but caught four passes for 95 yards and a touchdown. The man is a Lamborghini. Sure, something will almost certainly happen that sidelines him at some point, but while he is healthy you should have him sprinkled into your GPP builds. Especially when they are expected to get ahead against weak run defenses.

Miles Sanders, Eagles, ($6,500DK/$6,600) 2.8% Own:

I do not know why his ownership is so low. Atlanta’s defensive personnel can not keep up with this dynamic playmaker, at least not yet. I think people remember the last couple of seasons where the previous coaching regime would rotate backs with no rhyme or reason. Take a breath folks, Nick Sirianni is coming from Indy and he does not share that thought process. Miles will get more reps this year in both carries and targets in 2021 if Sanders stays healthy this should be a career year in terms of volume and production. Dean Pees (ATL Defensive Coordinator) loves, loves, loves blitzing from the secondary, and if Hurts sees that, Miles Sanders can be wide open on those blitz packages and running to daylight. Trust me here folks. Get a couple of shares of him in your GPP’s this week and you will be glad that you did.

Also Consider: Jonathan Taylor, Aaron Jones, Chase Edmonds

Cash:

James Robinson, Jaguars, ($6,400DK/$5,900FD):

Pricing for both Draftkings and FanDuel came out around a month ago and even at that time I was eyeing Robinson as a potential GPP play. Etienne is a different kind of back and J-Rob, at least for week one, was always fairly safe. Texans are a disaster on both sides of the ball thanks to the Bill O’Brien era and my early script included a heavy dose of running the clock down into the second half. That has not changed since pricing came out, and now we have no Etienne to compete with for workload. Robinson averaged 17.8 carries and 4.3 targets per game in 2020. This year the Jags have a better O-Line, more WR depth, and their franchise QB who already looks like he belongs, so defenses can no longer cheat to stop the run game. Robinson should have a field day in week one with no real competition for touches and targets against arguably the worst franchise in the NFL.

Dalvin Cook, Vikings, ($9,100DK/$9,400FD)

If the Vikings do not get behind early there is one thing that you can be assured of. Dalvin Cook will carry the ball 20+ times and see anywhere from 3-5 Targets in the passing game. I think the Bengals will be improved this season but Burrow will likely be rusty in the early going and the offensive line will take some time to gel. That means stalled drives and a game script where Dal can feast. The Bengals year in and year out have a defense that gets holes ripped through it on the ground and in 2020 they were second worst, giving up 5.1 yards per carry for almost 2,400 yards (fourth-worst). With no Irv Smith and Kyle Rudolph out of the picture, Cook’s already league-leading red zone rush attempts (68 attempts for 13 TD’s) will almost certainly increase and it will be immediate.

Antonio Gibson, Football Team, ($5,900DK/$7,000)

The Chargers traveling to the east coast is bad, playing that game at 1:00 PM EST/10:00 AM PST is even worse, and in my opinion not getting any of your starter’s reps in the preseason is a strike three. I fully expect the Chargers to play a flat game against last season’s DROY Chase Young and the rest of that tough Washington defense. Staley’s defensive scheme for LAC (at least up front) is to have three down linemen tight to the formation forcing the ball handler to go outside. That spells disaster as Antonio Gibson is incredibly quick outside of the tackles and was regularly used in off-tackle runs as well as screenplays in 2020. A quick note on Gibson, he played almost half of the season with a foot injury and he has already told us that he was 100% good now.

Also Consider: Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon

It is finally time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our Win Daily Sports: Week 1 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.12 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in one of the final Week 12 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 12 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Russell Wilson (DK $18,900, FD $16,500)

Pivot: DK Metcalf (DK $17,100, FD $14,000)

Contrarian #1: Carson Wentz (DK $15,600, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #2: Miles Sanders (DK $13,800, FD $13,500)

DK Punts: Seahawks DST ($5,700) or Jalen Reagor ($8,700)

DK Contrarian Punt: Alshon Jeffrey ($2,400)

We’ve got to love Russell Wilson in this game, and he’ll likely be the chalk. The Seahawks should be able to roll out their usual offensively balanced approach in this game, as they’re back to full capacity with their stable of RBs – grinder Chris Carson is back in action and leads the way – and no major injuries to report among their top two WRs. They will be missing TE Greg Olsen, but I expect to see Wilson picking his spots with efficiency against the Eagles secondary.

As with the rest of the league, the Eagles don’t have anyone who can contain the relatively matchup-proof DK Metcalf, and with the athletic receiver seeing just nine targets over the past two weeks, I expect him to have a big game and around 7-10 targets. Since the Eagles do have a strong run defense, they’ll likely run some play action with Carson to get the ball in the hands of Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and TE Will Dissly, who might notch a couple extra looks in this one.

I’m plenty interested in using the Seahawks DST at captain if it gets me Wilson, one of the big two Seahawks WRs and Carson, and there’s already a viable roster construction for large-field GPPs that I’m envisioning which utilizes a Carson Wentz meltdown/replacement with Jalen Hurts. The Seahawks could force him right out of the game with constant pressure, as the Eagles have yielded a league-high 40 sacks this season through 10 games.

If Wentz is successful in avoiding pressure, it’ll be because their defense will help keep the game close and they give plenty of opportunities to Miles Sanders. The Seahawks defense is about league average against the run, but they looked like a much-improved unit in their game against the Cards. WRs Jalen Reagor and Travis Fulgham probably have the most upside in this matchup, but I’m sprinkling in plenty of Dallas Goedert and will have a few shares of embattled and oft-injured wideout Alshon Jeffrey, who could see more snaps in this matchup.

Week 12 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Use more Eagles than Seahawks. Unless something goes terribly wrong and the Eagles defense flips the script, we’re looking at a max of two or three lineups per ten where you could go 3/3 (maybe two) or 4-2 (1/10 at most) in favor of Philly.

DO: Get a little creative with the Eagles offensive performers you use. There’s been talk of replacing Wentz if he struggles, and this is exactly the type of game and DSFS format you could see him put together a second half worthy of inclusion.

DON’T: Fiddle around too much with the non-Chris Carson Seahawks backs, aside from possibly Carlos Hyde. The price on Hyde is steep because of last week’s performance, but we have every indication Carson will lead the backfield in touches this week.  A few shares are okay, but don’t go overboard.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Russell Wilson
  2. DK Metcalf
  3. Chris Carson
  4. Tyler Lockett
  5. Carson Wentz
  6. Miles Sanders
  7. Jalen Reagor
  8. Travis Fulgham
  9. Dallas Goedert
  10. Seahawks DST
  11. Will Dissly
  12. Greg Ward
  13. Jason Myers
  14. Boston Scott
  15. Carlos Hyde
  16. Freddie Swain (questionable)
  17. Alshon Jeffrey
  18. Jake Elliott
  19. Jalen Hurts
  20. Jacob Hollister
  21. Eagles DST
  22. Richard Rodgers
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We’ve got your NFL Week 15 DFSplays – the best RBs to use in the main slate, as well as some contrarian picksto win you some major green in huge GPPs!

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Week 15 DFS RunningBack – Cash Game Plays

Chris Carson, SEA at CAR

DK ($7,500)   FD ($7,400)

Normally, lock-n-load cash game RB plays are either expensiveor really cheap, but we’ve got an excellent value play in Carson that’s prettysafe and won’t cost you too much on either site. With Rashad Penny done for theyear, Carson will get elite volume in a smash spot – making this a prime opportunityto eat the chalk and move on with the rest of your lineup.

Leonard Fournette, JAC atOAK

DK ($7,600)   FD ($7,700)

Last week I reiterated that Fournette is a weekly lock for 20+touches, and now he’s seen a total of 29 targets over the past three weeks. He’sfacing an Oakland defense that’s been especially vulnerable to rushing TDs overthe past few weeks and there’s no game script that kills this guy’sinvolvement. His floor is still a robust 12-15 DK points and he’s got 25-30-pointupside on both sites.

Also consider:Todd Gurley, Derrick Henry (questionable)

Week 15 DFS RunningBack – GPP Plays

Christian McCaffrey, CAR vs. SEA

DK ($10,000)   FD ($10,400)

McCaffrey got back over 20 DK points last week but faces a toughSeattle defense that’s among the top 10 in the league against the run. He’sstill priced at $10K or more on both sites so I’ll be avoiding him in cashgames – putting him on the radar in GPPs where we could get an elite player ina tougher matchup with low ownership.

Dalvin Cook, MIN at LAC

DK ($8,900)   FD ($8,500)

We’ve lost some of the 20+ upsides that Cook showed us early in the season, but this is a great chance for him to get right and bust out with a big game. Cook said he came out of Week 14 feeling “healthy,” which was a concern because of the chest injury. He’s now scored TDs in four straight and should be a focal point of the offense with a 25-point upside facing the Chargers.

Saquon Barkley, NYG vs. MIA

DK ($7,700) FD ($8,300)

Barkley represents decent GPP value on the main slate in awinnable matchup. If he can’t break out for a big day against the Dolphins, I’mafraid he’s just not what we’ve been hoping he’d be for this Giants offense. He’shad just three games with 20+ DK points this year and just two 100-yard rushinggames, but Week 15 is his best matchup of the season.

Also consider: Nick Chubb, Raheem Mostert

Week 15 DFS RunningBack – Contrarian GPP Plays

Aaron Jones, GB vs. CHI

DK ($7,300)   FD ($7,800)

Jonesexploited a weak Redskins run defense to compilea season-high rushing yardage total last week, rushing 16 times for 134and a TD, adding 6-58-0 on seven targets in the passing game. He’ll be a focalpoint of the Packers offense this week against the Bears as well, and he’s gotmassive upside despite what I would hope would be lower ownership in a “red”matchup.

Austin Ekeler, LAC vs. MIN

DK ($6,700)   FD ($7,200)

I included him in this space last week and he went nuts, rushing forover 100 yards and adding 5-112-1 receiving for 37.3 DK points! I really thinkthat Ekeler is matchup-proof and needs to be included in GPPs at his pricepoint, regardless of the presence of Melvin Gordon. IF anything, he could see afew more targets this week against a decent Vikings run defense.

Also consider: Ezekiel Elliott, Joe Mixon

Week 15 DFS RunningBack – Value/Punt Plays

Phillip Lindsay, DEN at KC

DK ($5,600)   FD ($6,400)

I don’t see a scenario where Lindsay doesn’t get a lot of touchesfacing the Chiefs, so he’s a viable option in GPPs and even some cash games inWeek 15. It’s been a while since he’s had a GPP-winning breakout (Week 5 atLAC), but this is a spot where I’m comfortable buying shares of him and gettingahead of the field at 25-30 percent personal ownership.

James White, NE at CIN

DK ($5,400)   FD ($6,800)

The price has come up since his big Week 13 performance (and he’sa tough fit on FD at $6,800), but White looks like he could have some scoringupside this week against a bad Bengals defense. It’s possible Belichick dialsdown into a running game heavier on Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead, but White hasmaintained enough involvement (aside from the Dallas game) to warrant considerationin GPPs on DK.

Patrick Laird, MIA at NYG

DK ($4,500)   FD ($5,500)

Laird is not a stud running back who’s probablygoing to get you 25+ this week, but he’s really the only guy the Dolphins trustright now and he’s in a decent matchup. He rushed for 48 yards on 15carries against the Jets last week and hauled in 4-38-0 on five targets. TheGiants are similarly putrid in their defensive depth and could see Laird notch75 plus total yards and a score – making him a decent value play in allformats.

Additional plays: David Montgomery, LeSean McCoy, Miles Sanders, Sony Michel, Dion Lewis (if Henry inactive or limited)

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MONKEYKNIFEFIGHT.COM PICK – Play this Pick here and get 100 percent bonus!

Goal: 48.5, Prize: 2x

Lets go with what could be some heavy volume for a couple of RBs in good spots in this Week 15 game with Phillip Lindsay and LeSean McCoy, adding Tyreek Hill to the mix. These guys should easily total 48.5 fantasy points barring an injury to one of them.

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As we approach the second half of Week 13, keep in mind that although there are many injuries across the league, there is only a handful that impacts DFS significantly (i.e. Adam Thielen, Zach Ertz). It will be critical to staying up to date on these injuries to help make fade/play decisions so check back with me for more information as the weekend unfolds. With that said I’ll get into the Week 13 Injury Fades/Plays. Keep in mind that all of the following prices are from DraftKings.

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Zach Ertz ($6,700)

Ertz did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday before getting in a limited practice on Friday due to a hamstring injury from last week. Despite the fact that Dallas Goedert ($4,100) was optimistic Ertz would play, the general feel from the collection of reports is less rosy. This will be a true game-time decision this week making him a fade in cash for me on Sunday despite a smash spot against Miami. Ertz is at risk for missing time or if he plays, re-aggravating the injury. Pivoting to Goedert is the obvious over-owned play here, so instead look to teammate Miles Sanders ($5,400) in the showdown slates. Sanders will likely pick up the leftover volume in Ertz’s absence. If you’re playing the Thursday to Sunday slate and were going to pay up for tight end anyway, look at Travis Kelce ($7,200) who over the last three games against the Raiders has three touchdowns, over 20 receptions, and more than 300 receiving yards.

Update: The reports are that Ertz is “pushing to play” which does not give us any more comfort in his utilization or effectiveness. It also does not detract from his risk of re-aggravation. He’s still a fade in cash games. Goedert and the tight ends I mention above are cash plays in Ertz’ absence

Gerald Everett ($4,600)

Everett has been dealing with wrist and knee injuries for a couple of weeks now and will not play on Sunday. This coincides perfectly with a matchup against the Cardinals who are bad at defending the pass and especially bad at defending the tight end.

*Enter Tyler Higbee*

Higbee is nothing special from a talent perspective, but he soaks up enough targets even with Everett active to warrant cash game consideration this week. At $2,500 he could run an incorrect route and return value on accident. Higbee also gives you massive savings to jam in players you want this week.

Damien Williams ($4,800)

Williams has an injury to his ribs which can be extremely painful, so he’s going to sit this one out. Teammates LeSean McCoy ($4,800) and Darrel Williams ($4,400) will look to hold down the backfield in his absence, but I’m not particularly interested in either as Andy Reid has made this backfield a nightmare for DFS players. Instead, I’m pivoting away from this game and looking at Miles Sanders again who is likely to be very involved as the 1. A. running back in a matchup where the Eagles should be in control.

Adam Thielen ($7,000)

It’s not often that players are hesitant to discuss their game status, but that’s exactly what we got from Thielen on Friday. His interview with reporters essentially amounted to Thielen saying “we’ll see” in response to the question of whether he would play or not on Sunday. This is an injury red flag if I’ve ever seen one. DFS players should make lineups without Thielen in it. Even if he’s active, he’s a serious risk for re-injury as we saw happen a few weeks ago. This means you can continue to roll with Stefon Diggs ($7,400) against this uninspiring Seattle secondary that will also now be without pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney.

Tyler Lockett ($7,200)

My favorite receiver can’t catch a break. Following the scary injury to his shin, Lockett was downgraded to “did not practice” on Friday due to an illness. This isn’t great as a stomach bug can cause fatigue and dehydration for a few days after the worst of it subsides. If it’s the flu virus, Lockett could be dealing with those same symptoms but at an amplified level. Lockett is a fade for me in cash and I’m watching his status for Monday night closely. Look at D.K. Metcalf ($6,100) in tournaments to once again fill the void, but this Minnesota defense is nothing to mess with.

Update: Pete Carroll said that all players listed with an illness, including Lockett, will play on Monday. Jadeveon Clowney says he will try to play.

Additions and Updates:

Matt Breida ($4,900)

Breida will be out again which is not surprising considering the ankle issue he’s dealing with is of the high variety. Mostert ($3,800) is a cheap option but I’m fading him in cash and tournaments as his volume is simply too low.

Thank you for reading the DFS Week 13 Fades/Plays. Be sure to bookmark this page or follow me on Twitter for more updates or changes. Good luck this week.

THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.

Featured image courtesy of Jason Peters.

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We’ve got your NFL Week 13 DFSplays – the best RBs to use in the main slate, as well as some contrarian picksto win you some major green in huge GPPs!

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Week 13 DFS RunningBack – Cash Game Plays

Christian McCaffrey, CAR vs. WAS

DK ($10,500)   FD ($11,000)

McCaffrey scored another 30+ DK points last week and while the price came up on FD to $11K, he’s still affordable on both sites. At some point, you’d think the heavy volume would diminish, but it doesn’t. He’s a fine play at home versus Washington in Week 13.

Saquon Barkley, NYG vs. GB

DK ($7,400)   FD ($7,600)

Barkley should be a featured weapon Sunday against the Packers (ina game that will be played in rainy weather) and should get a boatload ofcarriers and usage – the red zone included. Green Bay struggled to defend therun and while he’s far from the fantasy ceiling and floor of McCaffrey, he’s oneof the best cash game options we have, especially at the reduced price on FD.

Aaron Jones,GB at NYG

DK ($6,800)   FD ($8,000)

Jones makes sense as a bargain cash gameplay on DK and has an excellent matchup in what should be a positive game script against the Giants. The weather could force the Packers to run the ball a lot more. I wouldn’t play both Barkley and Jones together, but both should get plenty of opportunities to produce.

Also consider:Le’Veon Bell, Jonathan Williams

Week 13 DFS RunningBack – GPP Plays

Josh Jacobs, OAK at KC

DK ($6,900)   FD ($7,700)

The shoulder injury has kept him limited again this week, but he’sstill a GPP option facing the league’s worst defense against RBs. No need to overthinkthis – if he’s active and not seriously limited, he’s worth using in GPPs.

Derrick Henry, TEN at IND

DK ($7,600)   FD ($8,600)

We’ll keep an eye on news about Henry (hamstring) over theweekend, but the questionable tag shouldn’t diminish our enthusiasm for him inGPPs – especially because he doesn’t have much competition for carries in theTitans offense. He’s got 347 rushing yards and four TDs over his last twogames.

Miles Sanders, PHI at MIA

DK ($5,400) FD ($5,800)

Jordan Howard could be back this week, but Miles Sanders stillmakes sense in GPPs. His speed and usage in all aspects of the Eagles offensecould see him flourish against a poor Miami defense. I wouldn’t recommend him incash games unless Howard is inactive, but he’s going to make many of my GPPbuilds regardless.

Also consider: Todd Gurley,Phillip Lindsay, Joe Mixon, Ronald Jones

Week 13 DFS RunningBack – Contrarian GPP Plays

Leonard Fournette, JAC vs.TB

DK ($7,300)   FD($7,000)

It’s not a great matchup, but I’m also not convinced the Jags areready to get away from their current offensive style with Nick Foles undercenter. I expect them to try to grind out a win vs. the Bucs and do so with alot of shorter passes and plenty of involvement from Fournette.

Austin Ekeler, LAC at DEN

DK ($5,700)   FD ($6,700)

Melvin Gordon has typically struggled against the Broncos, so wecould see a few more touches and targets for Ekeler in Week 13. He’s a muchbetter play on DK with the full-point PPR, and the upside is still there becauseof his big-play capability.

Also consider: Nick Chubb, MarkIngram, Tevin Coleman

Week 13 DFS RunningBack – Value/Punt Plays

LeSean McCoy, KC vs. OAK

DK ($4,800)   FD ($5,800)

McCoy and Darrell Williams will shoulder the load for the Chiefswith Damien Williams looking unlikely to suit up this week. I like McCoy alittle better, but Darrel Dubs is seven cheaper at $4,400 on DK.

Derrius Guice, WAS at CAR

DK ($4,500)   FD($5,400)

Guice has a favorable matchup vs. the Panthers (ranked 30th againstRBs), and he should probably receive more touches than Adrian Peterson. Ownershipin GPPs should be down and we could see a breakthrough performance for theembattled young back this week.

Additional plays: Darrel Williams, Jalen Richard (if Jacobs is out or limited)

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Let’s go with both RBs and a WR for this matchup in the rain. Both Saquon Barkley and Aaron Jones should see increased volume and Davante Adams if healthy) can round out our choices.

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As I’ve said over and over again: every player is banged up to a certain extent at this point in the season. The key to winning at DFS is navigating the medical implications for said injuries. Enter the DFS Injury Fades and Plays article. Despite what I just said about the state of the NFL’s health, this week there are only a handful of decisions to make in terms of injuries as many guys have already been ruled out or are on bye. I’ll walk you through who those players are. Note that the following prices are from FanDuel.

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Tyler Lockett ($7,400)

First up on the DFS Injury Fades and Plays is a guy who looks to be active on Sunday. Lockett was limited in practice all week, but coach Pete Carroll said on Friday that he’s now “good to go”. Keep in mind that although Lockett will probably be active, his effectiveness is not guaranteed. I’m extremely conservative with players coming back from serious injuries (e.g. Emmanuel Sanders in Week 11 playing through rib damage) and considering that he stayed in the hospital for two nights, I need a “prove it” game from him. Not to mention that from a strategy perspective, injuries alter game plans and there is a small chance he’s not as involved in the offensive scheme as we’re used to seeing. So, although I love Tyler Lockett on paper, he’s a fade for me in cash this week. The flip side is that he’s a great tournament play and the potential to pop off for 100 yards and 7 catches still exist. In reality, I’m really only eyeing Russell Wilson ($8,200) in cash for this game.

Alshon Jeffery ($6,200)

Jeffery was a limited practiced participant all week and is now questionable with an ankle injury. He’s a difficult player to prognosticate as this ankle injury has stubbornly stuck around for weeks now, meaning I’m not convinced that he can be that Alshon even if he plays. Despite all of those things, Jeffery still might give it a go due to the fact that fellow receiver Nelson Agholor might sit out with a knee injury, adding extra pressure for Jeffery to try and go. As a result, he’s a fade for me but his teammates Zach Ertz ($6,100) and Miles Sanders ($5,600) become cash and tournament plays respectively. I’m especially bullish on Miles Sanders in tournaments this week despite his dud against the Patriots due to the fact that Jordan Howard will once again be inactive. Additionally, Sanders is a big play waiting to happen. Another rarely discussed factor in situations such as this are injuries on the other side of the ball. The Seahawks’ star defensive lineman Jadeveon Clowney did not practice all week, which significantly hurts a Seattle rushing defense that is just barely middle of the pack. Check back with me for an update on that.

Update: Alshon is inactive. Clowney is also inactive. Consider Ajayi as a tournament option.

Phillip Dorsett ($5,400)

Dorsett is still in the concussion protocol as of this morning, which means that he’s truly a game-time decision. Because of the fact that every concussion is unique and non-linear in nature in terms of recovery, I think this is the first time that the Patriots aren’t just playing whack-a-mole with the reports. It is concerning that Dorsett has not been cleared for contact and the fact that he participated in individual drills on Friday, though a good sign overall, does not guarantee he’s active on Sunday. With the added factor that Mohamed Sanu is a likely inactive (or will at least be limited), I believe this is a ceiling game for Julian Edelman ($7,500) so I’m more than okay using him in cash. His teammates, on the other hand, are fades if active.

Update: Mo Sanu’s ankle injury is of the high ankle variety and it seems like he’s pushing to play. Although it’s a valiant effort to say he’ll play, I would be shocked if he plays and even more shocked if he’s productive.

Emmanuel Sanders ($6,400)

Sanders was a risky play last week due to cartilage damage of his ribs and this week is no different. Last week he was painfully limited and it was cringe-worthy to watch. Ribs injuries are brutal to play through and Sanders showed us that last week. Enough times have not passed for Sanders to be significantly improved. So, even though I think San Francisco runs the ball against Green Bay, somebody has to catch the ball. Looking at you in tournaments Deebo Samuel ($6,200).

https://twitter.com/FFStudentDoc/status/1196204168949719040?s=20

George Kittle ($7,000)

Although Kittle is making steady progress in his recovery by practicing in a limited fashion all week, he is still reportedly wearing a non-contact jersey, which is not a great sign for his availability on Sunday. On the off chance that he does get activated, he’s merely a deep tournament play. Instead, I’m looking at Tevin Coleman ($6,300) in tournaments (and potentially cash depending on format) and his counterpart Raheem Mostert ($4,800) who will get the nod as Matt Breida is highly unlike to play. Why you ask? Because the Packers are 5th to last in rushing DVOA and this could become a game of keep away from Aaron Rodgers. Kittle is fade for me if he’s active (which I don’t necessarily expect).

Reports: The reports this morning are that Kittle has a fracture in his foot or ankle but will play tonight. I think that decision is extremely, ahem, not smart. I’m fading Kittle in all formats and willing to live with the consequences (even though I do not expect a productive day from him).

Thank you for reading the DFS Injury Fades and Plays. Make sure to follow up with me on Sunday morning for the final updated version!

THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.

Image courtesy of Larry Maurer.

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