We’ve got some live arms and potent bats in this edition of Aces and Bases focusing ONLY on FanDuel’s five-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET.
There are no bad weather issues but a possible COVID outbreak on the Houston Astros means we have to stay vigilant on news and have pivots at the ready!
Kershaw is the highest-priced arm and the likely chalk, but I’d venture to say that Darvish has more contrarian upside in a home matchup against a team that’s not known for swing-and-misses, but doesn’t have a lot of experience facing Darvish. The Japanese marvel is notoriously tricky to solve and seemed at ease in his last two starts — and while Kershaw might be the preferred option in cash games, I’ll take the cheaper San Diego RHP in GPPs for some leverage on the field, since only a small percentage of DFS gamers will use pitchers against the “Boys in Blue.”
I’m a little concerned about getting six innings from Dunning, and that seems to be where he’d max out at his current pitch count progression, but he’ striking out more than a batter per inning in three major league starts and the command for this 26-year-old RHP. He throws a nasty sinker that complements his four-seamer and mixes in a decent slider and occasional use of a change and curveball. The Orioles strike out at the second-highest clip in the majors this season and Dunning could offer the cheapest path to 8+ Ks and a quality start.
The Astros have the fourth-highest team xOBA in baseball (.342) and shouldn’t have much trouble against the eminently hittable Chris Flexen. I’m most interested in some combination of the 2-6 hitters here, which could include Aledmys Diaz ($2,600), Michael Brantley ($3,600), Yuri Gurriel ($2,800), Kyle Tucker ($3,500) and Carlos Correa ($3,000). The prices are discounted a bit on these guys without Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman — who all hit the injured listed for undisclosed reasons, prompting rumors of a possible COVID outbreak. Stay tuned since there could be some news of a postponement or more players hitting that list.
So far this season, Jose Quintana has had a very difficult time retiring the 27 RH batters he’s faced, and he’s clearly on the downside of his career when those splits tend to become a little more exaggerated. The Twins are loaded with relatively inexpensive powerful righty hitters like Nelson Cruz ($3,800), Josh Donaldson ($3,000), Mitch Garver ($2,400) and Miguel Sano ($2,800). I was on them last night and they didn’t deliver against Andrew Heaney — a solid pitcher in his own right — but I’m going right back to the well. Cruz alone sports an obscene .570 wOBA and .440 ISO vs. LHP over his last 63 games, and Donaldson, Garver and Kyle Garlick ($2,200) all mash against LHP.
EDIT: The Twins-Angels game has been postponed, so remove any players associated with that game ASAP.
It’s not one of those slates where you need to deploy a very inexpensive secondary value stack, but the Brewers strike me as a classic boom-or-bust GPP stack you might want to mix into a few large, low-cost tournaments for their upside and potent lefty bats, including Travis Shaw ($2,900), Omar Narvaez ($2,700) and Christian Yelich ($4,100), who’s missed four straight with a back injury but is still considered DTD. If he can’t go, Billy McKinney ($2,000) could get the start, as both he and Jackie Bradley ($2,400) have been used to spell Yelich. Also keep an eye on Daniel Vogelbach at just $2,100. If you’re looking to run a Pirtes hitter back against the group, I’d prefer 3B Phillip Evans, who’s been raking against LHP this season and hits out of the 4 slot.
Good luck!
One more Sunday, and the 2019 MLB regular season is over. The 9/22 DFS Hitting Picks will swing for the fences today, knowing that chances to make the long green are running out.
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Murphy’s breakout season has been built on the backs of woeful lefties, whom he has a .348/.402/.714 slash line against with 11 of his 18 homers coming against them. Having a moderate-priced catcher with a 47.8% fly ball rate should pay dividends in Camden Yards. Orioles rookie John Means gets the start and has somehow managed to post a 3.65 ERA despite a 50.6% fly ball rate. Bet on Murphy putting a boost to Means’ 9.7% HR/FB rate.
With six hits in his last three games, Braun is doing his part to keep the Brewers’ postseason hopes alive. Five of his last eight hits have been for extra bases, which has shot his OPS to 1.027 over the last week. His power numbers are similar to his 2018 production, but Braun’s .319 BABIP is 45 points higher, resulting in his career-high 45.3% hard contact rate having more impact.
Moncada has spent much of 2019 torturing Tigers pitching. He’s hit .357/.404/.714 with four homers and 11 RBI off Detroit hurlers and comes into today with a .474/.492/754 slash line over the past two weeks. Moncada’s .403 BABIP hides the sins of a 7.6% walk rate and 27.5% strikeout rate. His line drive rate of 23.7% and improved ability to hit to all fields makes him a great play in the 9/22 DFS Hitting Picks lineup.
Despite hitting .244 against Kansas City pitching this season, Sano has made the Royals hurt when he does reach base. Six of his 10 hits off KC hurlers have been for extra bases, including four homers. Sano has a 1.019 OPS this month, driven mainly by a .394 OBP that should scare the hell out of all of us if this carries into 2020. To what should be shocking to no one, Sano manages soft contact just 9.3% of the time, so you’re going to be cheated when using him today.
Ponder the fact that Correa has 21 homers and 59 RBI in just 75 games. Prorate those numbers, and you’d be talking about a potential AL MVP candidate. He’s a monster at Minute Maid Park, sporting a 1.034 OPS with 11 of his 21 homers coming at home. His .282 Isolated Power and a 17-point improvement in BABIP only makes you wonder what he could have done had he stayed healthy this season. After a 28.8% hard contact rate in 2019, Correa comes into today with a 44.7% rate. Can’t make up for lost time, so indulge in Correa’s final home game of the regular season.
He’s had four multi-hit games in his past six starts, continuing a blistering September that has seen Jimenez hit .358 with seven homers and 21 RBI. Jimenez has been surprisingly more effective outside of hitter-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field, producing an .875 OPS compared to .750 at home. His modest 33.6% fly ball rate is countered by a 27.1% HR/FB rate, all the more reason Tigers ace Matthew Boyd had better be on notice.
He. Won’t. Stop. Hitting. Kendrick is 10-for-17 (.588) during a September run where he’s swinging it at a .432/.468/.659 clip. Unlike most of the aforementioned players in the 9/22 DFS Hitting Picks, Kendrick isn’t a serious threat to homer, but he will continue spraying the ball all over the field. He’s making hard contact at a 45.8% rate, which means a lot of his grounders (48.9%) are quickly finding their way past outfielders.
Mancini has a nine-game hitting streak and has scored at least one run in seven of his past 10 games. What has made his season interesting is that for a hitter whose hard contact rate is just about league-average (36.9%) who also doesn’t put the ball in the air as much as you’d think (31.7%), he’s pounding the daylights out of the ball. Mancini’s hitting more line drives (21.8%), but the hidden number just might be his .319 BABIP, which is nearly on par to his 2017 coming out party.
9/22 Hitting Stack of the Day: Houston Astros: As a team, the Astros hit .282/.360/.512 at Minute Maid Park, so why not load up one last time this season? Yordan Alvarez ($4,300 FD) and Alex Bregman ($5,400 DK) are anchors that can hold on to Jose Altuve ($4,200 FD) and Michael Brantley ($4,500 FD). It will cost to go all-in with an Astros stack, so be prepared to find a punt at pitcher.
9/22 Hitting Stack Runner-Up: Minnesota Twins: Start with Sano and build from there with Max Kepler ($4,700 FD), Mitch Garver ($5,500 FD) and Eddie Rosario ($4,900 FD). Make sure to add Ehire Adrianza ($3,400 FD) if the OBP machine is in the lineup.
9/22 Hitting Stack to Consider: Chicago White Sox: Moncada and Jimenez are the building blocks. Add Jose Abreu ($3,700 FD) to corner the market on the heart of the Chicago order. Yolmer Sanchez ($2,500 FD) is an interesting add considering he has five hits in 11 at-bats against Boyd.
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All but one game of today’s 15-game slate is under the lights, giving the 9/20 DFS Hitting Picks a buffet table of offense and a handful of stacks. With a somewhat light host of available money pitchers, load up on offense on the road to the long green.
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Perez is smashing hurlers to the tune of .395/.447/.558 this month with a pair of homers and 12 RBI. His numbers haven’t changed much compared to last season…that is, with the notable exception of his Isolated Power, which sits at .216 after a woeful .095 last season. Perez has also boosted his BABIP to .286, a 29-point jump from 2018. Phillies hurler Drew Smyly has a 2.64 HR/9 rate that may suggest Perez being a part of an Indians stack.
There’s also OF eligibility with Mancini, who might be the hottest hitter in the game entering today’s play. He’s in the midst of a 15-for-32 (.469) run that includes four homers and 16 RBI over the past week. Mancini has a modest 31.8% fly ball rate, but counters that with a 24.3% HR/FB rate. A look at his numbers might suggest he’s scalding the dickens out of the ball, but Mancini’s hard contact rate (37.3%) is just above average. Facing the fading shell of Felix Hernandez should allow Mancini to continue his beatdown of AL pitching.
Moncada has a .986 OPS in 34 at-bats against Tigers pitching this season with three homers among his 11 hits. He’ll also have 3B eligibility, making him a solid 9/20 DFS Hitting Picks candidate. The power (one homer) isn’t as prolific as it was earlier in the season, but his overall .228 Isolated Power is a mild indication of what’s capable of down the road. The number of soft hits has reduced, with harder contact rate (39.5%) and an uptick in line drives makes him a good play in a potential stack lineup against 1-11 Tigers hurler Jordan Zimmermann.
He’s something of a value at FanDuel as he gets a plumb matchup against Eric Skoglund, he of the 8.36 ERA in 14 innings. Sano has homered four times in his last seven games, driving in 10. A .265 batting average this month has been modest, but Sano has a .991 OPS driven in part by a surprising .379 OBP. It was once said Sano could hit 50 homers with a better OBP, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Although he fans 36% of the time, his 12.7% walk rate has bolstered his production. Well, that, and the 51.7% hard contact rate.
It looks like Seager is going into the postseason with momentum, having hit .405 with five ribbies in the past week. Like the rest of the Dodgers, Seager will be giddy at the prospects of hitting against Rockies rookie pitcher Peter Lambert, who has a composite .333/.402/.597 slash against left-handed hitters and has allowed a combined 17 homers in 86.1 innings. It’s at this point where secondary stats are unnecessary. You should know what to do next.
Look for Tucker’s name to frequent the Astros’ lineup now that they’ve clinched a postseason berth. He’s striking out at a 26.1% rate, but the power he lacked in his brief time in the bigs last season has shown up, evidenced by a .205 Isolated Power rate. Tucker’s fly ball rate and hard contact rate are both 46.9%; you could look at every other player in the majors and probably won’t get that odd pairing again.
Beaty should be in the lineup, having hit .283 with a pair of homers and 10 RBI in 46 at-bats against Rockies pitching this season. Beaty has mauled righties with an .881 OPS and also fares better at home, where his OPS sits at .865. September hasn’t been too productive for Beaty (.194 BA, .654 OPS), yet he’s still online to make the postseason roster. He’ll continue to make hard contact (41.7%) at an above-average level, while Beaty’s 13.2% HR/FB rate makes the most of a limited fly ball rate (33%).
A 1.093 OPS with six homers and 17 RBI this month makes us feel like Jimenez is sending a warning shot toward opposing pitchers in 2020. The most encouraging number is a .403 OBP. My goodness, if Jimenez is learning plate discipline, then it’s time to be afraid. He’s not going to be in this range of salary a year from now, so I’d enjoy the rising hard contact rate (37.8%) and a 48.6% ground ball rate that I’d bet will closer to 40% next September. Like his teammate Yoan Moncada, feasting off Jordan Zimmermann makes Jimenez a good play.
9/20 Hitting Stack of the Day: Minnesota Twins: Skgolund will see a stack of righties from Minnesota, including the aforementioned Sano. Jonathan Schoop ($2,700 FanDuel) and Ehire Adrianza ($2,000 FD) are values if either/or is in the lineup. I’d look strongly at Mitch Garver ($5,500 DraftKings), and Nelson Cruz ($5,300 DK) as well.
9/20 Hitting Stack Runner-Up: Chicago White Sox: Jimenez and Moncada would lead the way. Zach Collins ($2,400 FD) is an interesting value play due to his power. Jose Abreu ($4,500 DK) is a must, as he has two career homers off of Zimmermann.
9/20 Hitting Stack to Consider: Los Angeles Dodgers: Beaty and Seager are part of a group that includes Joc Pederson ($4,200 DK), Cody Bellinger ($4,500 FD), Gavin Lux ($3,000 FD) and Will Smith ($2,600 FD) who are good options to tee off on Lambert.
The 9/18 Hitting Picks — at least the main slate — is hampered by the fact that five of the 15 games are daytime starts. Rather than be completely single-minded, we’ll give a nudge or two to the daytime folk.
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Navarez hit his 22nd homer of the season in Tuesday’s shutout win over the Pirates, continuing a run that has seen the lefty-swinging backstop hit .391 with three homers, six RBI and five runs scored over the past week. His .861 OPS versus right-handers sets him up well against Pirates hurler Dario Agrazal, who has a 7.08 ERA since July 26. Agrazal has allowed 12 homers in just 62.1 innings.
One of the few highlights of another dismal season in B-More, Mancini (who also has OF eligibility) has spent much of 2019 pounding Blue Jays pitching. Entering tonight’s game, Mancini has a .996 OPS with six homers and 19 RBI versus Toronto. His 8.9% walk rate has helped Mancini become more than just a masher. Mancini hits to all fields and sports a 25% HR/FB rate despite a surprisingly low 31.6% fly ball rate.
He’s put the hammer down this month. Albies has a 1.029 OPS in September with four homers, 10 RBI and 13 runs scored. He’s also recorded five multi-hit games over his last nine starts along with building upon an already impressive 42.4% hard contact rate. Like Mancini with the Blue Jays, Albies has thrived versus Phillies pitching, going .343/.395/.600 (.995 OPS), earning him the same vulgar looks Philly fans have given to the likes of other enemies like Joe Carter, Terrell Owens and Santa Claus.
Sano’s 486-foot moonshot on Tuesday was his third blast in his last four games since the Twins returned to American League play. After missing four straight games, Sano will continue to rake, as he has recorded four hits and a .955 OPS in 10 at-bats against Ivan Nova, who gets the nod tonight against the White Sox. A cool stat about Sano: he has a .708 slugging percentage in his last 58 at-bats against curveball specialists like Nova. Hmmm…
Wait, wasn’t he not supposed to run? Mondesi didn’t get the memo, having recorded a pair of stolen bases over the past week. After a sluggish start to his return from the DL, Mondesi has stolen eight bases this month. He’s also recorded six hits over his last three games, making him an exception to the day’s main slate rule. Mondesi has a good 38.1% hard contact rate and remains a pull-centric hitter (45.9% rate). Even with missing a significant portion of the season, Mondesi will get at least 40 steals. Imagine how many more he could tally if he improved his 4% walk rate and 29.1% strikeout rate.
In his deepest thoughts, Schwarber must be thinking, “this is what plate discipline feels like!” He’s put together a .369 OBP this month to go along with a 1.064 OPS. Schwarber has banged out five homers, 17 RBI and 13 runs scored. Whether he can bottle that up for traditional Fantasy isn’t the issue here. What is is that Schwarber is 4-for-10 against Reds starter Tyler Mahle with a homer and an 1.155 OPS.
With a pair of three-hit games over the past three, Jimenez has tacked on 12 points to his batting average, putting him at .261. While he has scuffled against Twins pitching, Jimenez does have three homers against them and comes into tonight having hit .433 with three homers and eight RBI over the past week. Jimenez has boosted his Isolated Power to .234 along with raising his hard contact rate to 37.8%.
The rookie’s 34.4% strikeout rate looks like some grotesque scene from the Saw movie franchise, but — like Jigsaw — Lewis is alive. It certainly helps to have a .467 Isolated Power and making the most of a 55% medium contact rate. There’s the prospect of a mild Mariners stack that begins with Lewis and Navarez.
9/18 Hitting Stack of the Day: Minnesota Twins: The White Sox plan to use Ivan Nova in the opener role. That means the Twins can tee off on a Chicago bullpen that has allowed 75 homers. Nelson Cruz ($3,200 FD) has two homers and an 1.134 OPS against Nova. Mitch Garver ($3,100 FD) could also be fit into a stack that would include the aforementioned Sano.
9/18 Hitting Stack Runner-Up: Houston Astros: Rangers starter Kolby Allard has a 2.28 ERA on the road. The Astros are expensive, as usual, but building with Yordan Alvarez ($5,600 DK) and Yuli Gurriel ($4.400 DK) would be helped with bargain bats Jake Marisnick ($3,700 DK) and Abraham Toro ($3,500) should both find their way into the lineup.
9/18 Hitting Stack to Consider: Cincinnati Reds: Cubs lefty Jon Lester has allowed 15 runs in his last 10.1 innings. Eugenio Suarez ($3,900 FD) has five career homers off Lester. Aristides Aquino ($3,400 FD) snapped out of a funk by hitting his 16th homer on Tuesday, Light-hitting Jose Peraza ($2,000 FD) has also tagged Lester well, having hit .353 against him 34 career at-bats.
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On our Thursday 9/5 DFS 7:05 main slate, there are seven ballgames – with one that stands out as a good single-game stack with a couple one-offs (a hot-hitting Cub and some RHBs on the lefty-mashing Houston buzzsaw). Are we ready to, once again, embrace the variance and win some green? You bet we are – and there’s enough pitching value to fade the top arms and build a lineup with serious studs.
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Most of this stack’s full-bodied components will be discussed hitterby hitter in greater detail below, but this is my top stack of the slate and I’llhave plenty of exposure to this game in general. The usual suspects apply. TheRed Sox are slashing a robust .285/.355/.506 at home this season and there’s nobodyI’d be careful to avoid.
The Twins have a little tougher matchup as they are underdogs inFenway Park, but they’d slashed .319/.384/.584 as a team over the past 7 daysheading into last night’s tough matchup vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (which resultedin a 6-2 loss). Look for the Twins to rebound in a big way against a hittable Eovaldi(6.23 ERA, 5.62 FIP). I like the outfielders (though Max Kepler was removedfrom last night’s game with upper chest soreness) and the slugging infielders (JorgePolanco, Miguel Sano, C.J. Cron, Luis Arraez).
Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yuri Gurriel make up the core of this stack, with Michael Brantley and/or Yordan Alvarez rounding it out on FD/DK. But if you’ve only got room for hitters like Aledmys Diaz, Abraham Toro and cheap catching option Robinson Chirinos, there’s still plenty of reason to get excited. The Astros has demolished LHPs this season to the tune of a 133 wRC+ and have great number sat home (.217 team ISO with just an 18.8% K rate – the second lowest in the league).
Chicago Cubs at Chase Anderson (Reverse splits pitcher and an implied total near 5 runs)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kolby Allard (high-risk/value/contrarian)
Tampa Rays vs. Trent Thornton (high-risk/value/contrarian)
With Castro starting this game out on the bench, I’m pivoting to Chirinos. He’s about the same price and offers similar upside in this matchup. Chirinos sports a .444 xwOBA in 174 ABs (217 plate appearances) vs. LHPs over the past couple of seasons.
Gurriel has cooled off a little bit since his insane July (.408/.437/.847 in 24 games), but not much, as he posted a .344/.423/.677 slash in August. He’s actually a little better against RHPs but maintains a .237 ISO vs. lefties, so he’s maybe a tad contrarian if you’re mini-stacking stacking Astros along with Boston bats. The .298 home ISO and 148 home wRC+ make him an attractive option.
Altuve (.302/.369/.599 with 14 HR at home this season) isunderpriced on DK and the Astros have the second highest implied total (about 6runs) on the evening slate. The diminutive slugger has been in a bit of a funk withno XBH on the five-game road trip, but a return to friendlier confines could bejust what he needs. It’s hard to find better implied value at this position, sowhy look past the five-and-a-half footer if we’re putting our best foot forward?
Lefty on lefty for Devers hasn’t bothered me since he took AroldisChapman deep as a youngster for the Sox, and he’ll be an overlooked part of theBoston stack and low-owned because of it. He’s completely avoidable if you’renot stacking this team, but I love going with Devers at 3B because he’s alwaysin the thick of this offense and his production this season (.320/.369/.579 slashwith 29 HR and 107 RBI) shows it.
We’ve had success recently with Bogaerts, and this is agreat matchup for the power-hitting SS to show off his .416 xwOBA against LHPs overthe past two seasons. Martin Perez isn’t a bad pitcher these days, but he has stillyielded a .184 ISO and .865 OPS since 2018. I’ve been doing well not overthinkingon Xander, so that’ll continue as I plug him into most of my lineups at SS. Thesomewhat underpriced Alex Bregman ($4,900 DK, $4,400 FD) is the obvious pivotat 3B and SS if you’re not anxious play both Devers and Bogaerts.
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Bettshad a monster game last night and when Mookie gets hot, you continue to playhim. Boston’s leadoff hitter connected for a couple homers last night en routeto a 4-for-5, five RBI night. He’s still underpriced at $5K on DK and is a Benjamincheaper than J.D. Martinez on FD. Since the start of 2018, Betts is sporting anxwOBA of .430 against LHPs and even if Perez gets yanked early, a righthander faceseven more obscene Betts data (.468 xwOBA vs. RHPs and home xwOBA of .478).
Mr. Castellanos has taken the Windy City by storm, and he getsto travel to Milwaukee to hit in a controlled environment. The problem is thatthese walls cannot possibly contain him either, and he’s been a revelatory offensivepowerhouse since joining the Cubs in a deadline deal, slashing .346/.378/.709 witha ridiculous .362 ISO, .439 wOBA, 12 homers and 24 RBI in just 31 games. It’snot just Wrigley, either: the bell-ringer has split his dingers 6/6 betweenhome and road. Plus, he’s massively underpriced facing a reverse-splits righty (ChaseAnderson) on a small slate. It’ll be tough to leave him out in any format.
The Sox are my favorite team and Travis is much-welcomed valueto help you finish them off on FD with these four hitters I’ve listed, or even addin another bat on DK if you’re going that route. He hits lefties well (.382 xwOBA,.200 ISO and under a 20% strikeout rate over the past two seasons). He’s higherrisk and may attract some ownership, but at that low, low price I’ll make roomto differentiate elsewhere.
C: Wilson Contreras ($4,200 DK, $3,100 FD), Travis d’Arnaud($4,000 DK, $2,700 FD)
1B: Josh Bell ($4,800 DK, $4,200 FD), Garrett Cooper (valueat $3,500 DK, $2,700 FD)
2B: Jonathan Schoop ($4,600 DK, $3,100 FD), Starlin Castro($3,500 DK, $3,000 FD)
3B: Abraham Toro ($2,600 DK, $3,200 FD, Miguel Sano ($5,100DK, $3,900 FD)
SS: Alex Bregman, Jonathan Villar ($4,700 DK, $3,400 FD)and possibly Javier Baez (thumb, DTD – $4,600 DK, $4,100)
OF: Twins galore (Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Nelson Cruz, JakeCave), Trey Mancini, Anthony Santander and Ryan Braun (.475 xwOBA vs. LHPs, 415ISO including five career HR vs. Jose Quintana)
Whenever we have games spread all throughout the day, I try my best to cater to every DFS player out there. What’s interesting here is that we only have three games during the day, so I’ll only offer up two plays from that slate. That should help DFS players who want to play both schedules and that’s our goal here at Win Daily Sports! So, let’s get into our 8/28 DFS Hitting picks!
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Trying to pick a catcher is always the toughest part of this article but Chirinos is a nice value on this slate. The reason for that is because of his matchup, with the Astros facing Ryan Yarbrough. While the Tampa lefty has been brilliant this season, his 3.89 xFIP indicates that he has some negative regression headed his way. That’s huge for a guy like Chirinos, with the Astros backstop generating a .447 OBP and .982 OPS against southpaws so far this season.
A power hitter like Olson becomes a great pick against a homer-prone pitcher like Jakob Junis. A 4.89 ERA and 1.40 WHIP from Junis is bad enough but his 58 dingers allowed since 2018 is one of the worst marks in baseball too. That’s got to light up Olson’s eyes, with the left-handed slugger posting a .511 SLG and .260 ISO since 2017. He’s been even better against right-handers in that span, tallying a .351 OBP, .543 SLG and .894 OPS against them. Olson is feeling it right now too, amassing a .382 OBP over his last 17 fixtures.
Let’s kick off our day-slate recommendations with the hottest second baseman in the league. This dude has been absolutely ridiculous the last few weeks and it’s scary just how good this 22-year-old kid could be. Over his last 22 games, Torres has 13 homers en route to a .786 SLG and 1.126 OPS, with 10 of those dingers coming in his last 15 fixtures. Those fantastic numbers since the All-Star break have led to a breakout season with 33 dingers in total. Torres has a career .531 SLG and .869 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor too and we definitely have to consider him against a guy like Justus Sheffield.
Sano is a favorite of mine and I’m just thrilled to see him hitting so well. A .579 SLG, .923 OPS, .378 wOBA and .332 ISO is obviously all career-highs, as it really shows just how powerful this dude is. His .250 career ISO is still a rather impressive mark and it’s clear that things are finally clicking for the big man. The reason we like him today is because he gets the platoon advantage against a terrible lefty. The Twins face Ross Detwiler, who’s got an unsightly 6.29 ERA and 1.72 WHIP dating back to 2015. That’s why Minnesota is projected for more than six runs, with Sano accumulating a .394 wOBA, .341 ISO, .612 SLG and .966 OPS against left-handers this season.
While this isn’t a great matchup against Eduardo Rodriguez, Story is always in play at home against a lefty. Let’s start with his Coors Field numbers, with Story totaling a .326 AVG, .399 OBP, .683 SLG and 1.082 OPS at home this season. That’s pretty close to his numbers against lefties, with the shortstop posting a .383 OBP, .637 SLG and 1.020 OPS since the beginning of 2017. That means he’s hard t fade anytime he faces a lefty at home and Rodriguez surely has to be scared of Coors Field with the Rockies projected for more than six runs.
How can this possibly go wrong? Arguably the best pure hitter in baseball hitting in Coors Field is a recipe for success, particularly someone as hot as Martinez. Over his last 48 games, J.D. is putting together a 349 .AVG .420 OBP, .646 SLG and 1.066 OPS. Those are actually not that far off of his season-long numbers and he should do some serious damage in a place like Coors Field. What we like here is that he gets to face Peter Lambert, who’s pitching to a 6.40 ERA and 1.61 WHIP this season.
We foreshadowed this a bit with our final sentence in the Torres write-up, as we love the Yankees on this slate. Any time they face a weak left-hander, all of the powerful righties are in play. Judge is just that, as he and the Bronx Bombers will oppose Sheffield and his 6.43 ERA and 2.29 WHIP. That’s truly frightening against a stud like Judge, who actually leads the league in exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. Those elite advanced statistics have been really shining recently, with Judge hitting four doubles and five homers over his last 14 games. Not to mention, he also has a .478 OBP, .667 SLG and 1.144 OPS against southpaws so far this season and is priced way too low on DK.
After a couple of stud outfielders, let’s give you a value play. Reyes is just that and it’s truly hard to understand why his price remains so low. We’re talking about a slugger with a .513 SLG and .271 ISO being priced around a bunch of minor leaguers. What makes it even more bizarre is that Reyes has four dingers over his last three games while knocking out six homers in total over his last 13 fixtures. That means the power stroke is strong right now, which is not a good thing for Jordan Zimmermann and his 6.48 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.
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Aaron Civale Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Adam Plutko just struck out nine Tigers on Tuesday and I expect Civale to have a similar performance. The rookie is pitching to a 1.82 ERA and 0.91 WHIP and gets to face a Detroit lineup who ranks last in runs scored, xwOBA and K rate.
MKF Record 30-22
Minnesota Twins
If you areplaying the early or all-day slates, you will want to be sure to get someexposure to the Twins. Minnesota has demonstrated an ability to hit the longball against lefties this season. As an offense they have a .212 ISO and a .373wOBA versus southpaws. Their success against lefties should continue today atthe expense of Yusei Kikuchi.
The Seattle starter is allowing a .348 wOBA to righties this season. And the best righty stick on the Twins belongs to Nelson Cruz (FanDuel: $3,700 DraftKings: $4,800). The slugger has a .424 ISO and a .443 wOBA against lefties this season.
There are a good number of options to pair with Cruz that will make for a dangerous stack. C.J. Cron (FanDuel: $3,700 DraftKings: $4,600) owns a .404 ISO versus lefties. Miguel Sano (FanDuel: $3,600 DraftKings: $4,300), Mitch Garver (FanDuel: $3,500 DraftKings: $5,200), Bryon Buxton (FanDuel: $3,200 DraftKings: $4,400) and Ehire Adrianza (FanDuel: $2,200 DraftKings: $3,300) all have ISOs greater than .220 against southpaws this season.
The Minnesotaoffense has all the makings of a DFS winner on Thursday.
Colorado Rockies
The San Diego Padres will be activating Matt Strahm from the IL in time to make the start on Thursday. This is very good news for the Rockies’ sluggers. Strahm owns a 42.3% flyball rate. Not only does he allow a bunch of flyballs, the Padres’ starter has a 47.2% hard contact rate. A flyball pitcher that gets hit hard will be starting in Colorado, what could go wrong?
Plan on a lot going wrong for the Padres’ southpaw. The Rockies should do plenty of damage against Strahm. And that damage is likely to come from Nolan Arenado (FanDuel: $4,800 DraftKings: $5,600). The third baseman has punished lefties all season with a .391 ISO and a .467 wOBA versus them. Our projections really like Arenado as well. Click here to sign up for our gold premium package that includes the projections, Slack channel access and much more.
And Arenadoisn’t alone when it comes to giving lefties a tough time. Ian Desmond (FanDuel:$3,600 DraftKings: $4,400), Ryan McMahon (FanDuel: $3,300 DraftKings: $4,300),Charlie Blackmon (FanDuel: $4,400 DraftKings: $5,800) and even Mark Reynolds (FanDuel:$2,700 DraftKings: $3,600) all have ISOs above .200 versus lefties this season.
The Rockies’ offense will be popular today and deservedly so.
New York Yankees
The ChicagoWhite Sox’s Ivan Nova enters play today with the highest ERA of any startingpitcher for Thursday. The best part about picking on Nova is that he hasstruggled against both sides of the plate. He is allowing a .357 wOBA torighties, while surrendering a .406 wOBA to lefties.
So feel free to pick any Yankees for your Daily Fantasy lineups. But you most likely will want to start that New York build with Gary Sanchez (FanDuel: $4,300 DraftKings: $5,500). The catcher has a .392 ISO and a .413 wOBA versus righties this season.
Othertargets for the Bronx Bombers stack include: Gleyber Torres (FanDuel: $3,600DraftKings: $4,600), Aaron Hicks (FanDuel: $3,700 DraftKings: $4,800), LukeVoit (FanDuel: $ DraftKings: $5,100), Brett Gardner (FanDuel: $3,100DraftKings: $4,300) and Clint Frazier (FanDuel: $3,500 DraftKings: $4,400).Each of these Yankees have ISOs over .235 against righties this season.
Value Stacks: Toronto Blue Jays (FanDuel), ArizonaDiamondbacks (FanDuel), San Diego Padres (DraftKings)
First Base – C.J. Cron, Minnesota Twins
DraftKings $4,400
Against left handed pitching this season, Cron, is batting .364 with five home runs. Soto is an absolute gas can and I want to attack him every way possible.
Second Base – Chad Pinder, Oakland Athletics
DraftKings $4,100
Against left-handed pitching this season, Pinder is batting .293 with a 50% hard hit rate. With the temps projecting this one as a very high day in Texas, I expect nothing less than a home run from Pinder.
Third Base – Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins
DraftKings $4,600
As you can see my theme is attacking righties who hit lefties hard. Sano falls right into this category. In his career against lefties, Sano has a 41.8% hard hit rate with a massive 40.5% fly ball rate. I see the huge upside here with Sano.
Shortstop – Jorge Polanco, Minnesota Twins
DraftKings $5,100
The trend continues and you can probably see my number one stack coming into play. Jorge Polanco has been on a tear this year and against left-handed pitching he’s batting .322 with a 40% hard hit rate. Like I said, I want to attack Soto in every way I can.
Outfield – Stephen Piscotty, Oakland Athletics
DraftKings $4,300
You know the drill here so I’ll skip to the stats, against left-handed pitching this season he’s batting .382. Piscotty also holds a 37.2% hard hit rate against lefties, this just screams home run.
Outfield – Nelson Cruz, Minnesota Twins
DraftKings $4,200
I’ll end here with the obvious trend of the article, Nelson Cruz is always a player I look for against lefties. This is my favorite play on the slate. First off he is waaaaaaaayyyyy too cheap, and this rounds off my stack with the outfield perfectly. With a career 39.6% hard hit rate and a 38.9% fly ball rate, this is my complete home run call of the day.
1.) Minnesota Twins
Gregory Soto is a gas can and gets hit very hard against right-handed bats (46.5% hard hit). I told you above I love the likes of Polanco, Cron, Sano, and Cruz. Even when they get past Soto this Tigers bullpen is horrible. So I don’t mind rounding out stacks with Eddie Rosario or Max Kepler.
2.) Oakland Athletics
Any time the Athletics are going up against a lefty I’m intrigued. The biggest boost I see here is the very very hot weather in Texas. It’s supposed to be 87 degrees and we all know how the ball carries in Texas. The Athletics hit the ball very hard, especially against lefties. They could put a very crooked number up in this one.
First Base – C.J. Cron, Minnesota Twins
DraftKings $4,400
Against left handed pitching this season, Cron, is batting .364 with five home runs. Soto is an absolute gas can and I want to attack him every way possible.
Second Base – Chad Pinder, Oakland Athletics
DraftKings $4,100
Against left-handed pitching this season, Pinder is batting .293 with a 50% hard hit rate. With the temps projecting this one as a very high day in Texas, I expect nothing less than a home run from Pinder.
Third Base – Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins
DraftKings $4,600
As you can see my theme is attacking righties who hit lefties hard. Sano falls right into this category. In his career against lefties, Sano has a 41.8% hard hit rate with a massive 40.5% fly ball rate. I see the huge upside here with Sano.
Shortstop – Jorge Polanco, Minnesota Twins
DraftKings $5,100
The trend continues and you can probably see my number one stack coming into play. Jorge Polanco has been on a tear this year and against left-handed pitching he’s batting .322 with a 40% hard hit rate. Like I said, I want to attack Soto in every way I can.
Outfield – Stephen Piscotty, Oakland Athletics
DraftKings $4,300
You know the drill here so I’ll skip to the stats, against left-handed pitching this season he’s batting .382. Piscotty also holds a 37.2% hard hit rate against lefties, this just screams home run.
Outfield – Nelson Cruz, Minnesota Twins
DraftKings $4,200
I’ll end here with the obvious trend of the article, Nelson Cruz is always a player I look for against lefties. This is my favorite play on the slate. First off he is waaaaaaaayyyyy too cheap, and this rounds off my stack with the outfield perfectly. With a career 39.6% hard hit rate and a 38.9% fly ball rate, this is my complete home run call of the day.
1.) Minnesota Twins
Gregory Soto is a gas can and gets hit very hard against right-handed bats (46.5% hard hit). I told you above I love the likes of Polanco, Cron, Sano, and Cruz. Even when they get past Soto this Tigers bullpen is horrible. So I don’t mind rounding out stacks with Eddie Rosario or Max Kepler.
2.) Oakland Athletics
Any time the Athletics are going up against a lefty I’m intrigued. The biggest boost I see here is the very very hot weather in Texas. It’s supposed to be 87 degrees and we all know how the ball carries in Texas. The Athletics hit the ball very hard, especially against lefties. They could put a very crooked number up in this one.
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