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Michael Thomas

Week 11 Wide Receiver DFS Picks: Thomas & Friends Pt. 2

Cora Baylis 4 years ago

written by Cora Baylis

Our Week 9 article was nearly perfect, so it was going to be hard to live up to that in Week 10. While Michael Thomas and DeVante Adams predictably did well, we got disappointing games from most of our GPP options. That’s going to happen every once in a while, and I feel much better about this week’s slate of games. With that in mind, let’s get into our Week 11 wide receiver DFS picks.

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Week 11 Wide Receiver Cash Game Plays

Michael Thomas, NO at TB

DK ($9,900) FD ($9,000)

Thomas was our most successful pick last week and it’s impossible to fade this guy at this point. We’re talking about a dude who’s scored at least 16.4 DK points in every game this season while leading all wide receivers with 25.2 fantasy points per game. That’s downright ridiculous production and an even more unbelievable floor. The reason for that is because of his targets and catch rate. Not only does he lead the league with 11.1 targets per game, but he also leads the NFL with an 83 percent catch rate. That has to be terrifying for a Buccaneers secondary who’s surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season. Don’t fade MT in cash games!

Mike Evans, TB vs. NO

DK ($7,400) FD ($8,200)

On the other side of the ball, we have to love Evans. This guy has been a Top-3 wide receiver since he was dealing with an illness the first two weeks and it’s clear that he’s the one making corners sick now. Since Week 3, Evans has collected 48 catches for 835 yards and seven TDs on 76 targets. Those are all Top-5 at his position and it’s obvious at this point that he’s the superior option to Chris Godwin. This should be a high-scoring game when looking at the 52-point total and Evans 233 receiving yards against this team last season indicates that he likes the matchup too.

Week 11 Wide Receiver GPP Plays

Marquise Brown, BAL vs. HOU

DK ($5,600) FD ($5,600)

Downtown Brown is literally the definition of a GPP wide receiver. While he’s been missing some games due to injury recently, he looked fully healthy in Week 10. That’s what we’re aiming for with a speedster like this, finishing that game with four catches for 80 yards and a TD. The usage numbers are definitely there too, with Brown attaining 26 percent of his team’s air yards and 18.3 percent of his team’s targets. That’s big news against a Houston secondary who owns a 28^th OPRK against opposing WRs this season. This might be one of the few times that Baltimore won’t be running at will with a big lead too, as we’re looking at a game with a 3.5-point spread and 50-point total.

Tyler Boyd, CIN vs. OAK

DK ($5,200) FD ($5,900)

It’s so crazy that these DFS sites continue to price Boyd so low. He currently ranks eighth among all wide receivers in total targets, while collecting a 26 percent team target share and 30 percent of his team’s air yards. Those are some of the best marks in football and his 57 catches for 598 yards aren’t shabby either. That monstrous workload is very enticing in a matchup like this, with the Raiders surrendering the most fantasy points in the league to WRs. In addition, Cincy should have to throw the ball a lot, entering this matchup as a 10.5-point underdog.

Dede Westbrook, JAX at IND

DK ($4,500) FD ($5,400)

Westbrook has been dealing with some injuries over recent weeks and it’s lowered his price to numbers that we can’t pass up. Before getting injured in Week 8, Westbrook averaged 8.6 targets over his previous five games. That led to him averaging five catches for 70 yards per game. That’s really all we can ask for from such a cheap player and we haven’t even discussed the implementation of Nick Foles into the lineup. Foles absolutely loves Westbrook and he actually peppered him with over half of the team’s targets in the preseason when both guys were on the field.

Week 11 Wide Receiver Punt Plays

Auden Tate, CIN at OAK

DK ($4,200) FD ($5,300)

This is another case of a player seeing way too many targets to be priced this cheaply. Not only has Tate received at least six targets in seven-straight games, but he’s also averaging 8.3 targets per game in that span. That’s led to him providing 26 percent of his team’s air yards and those rates are way too high for a player in this price range. While the production hasn’t necessarily been there, it could be against a Raiders secondary who surrenders the third-most passing yards in the NFL in addition to the most fantasy points to WRs.

Ted Ginn Jr. NO at TB

DK ($4,100) FD ($5,200)

Ginn is the punt play of all punt plays. He was actually a favorite of many people last week but we’re going to capitalize on that disappointment and use him here at much lower ownership. All the things that made him a good play last week go for this week. Ginn gets to face a Tampa defense who’s surrendered the most passing yards in the NFL while owning a 31^st OPRK against opposing wide receivers. That tasty matchup is extremely enticing for this passing game, as we anticipate Drew Brees having a monster day. If he does, Ginn could land one of those deep balls, as his 55 receptions of 20+ yards and 19 catches of 40+ yards since 2013 are some of the best marks in the NFL.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

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Hopkins, Thomas, and Jones Over 23.5 Receptions

These are arguably the three-best WRs in the NFL, with two of the leading the league in receptions. I expect two of these guys to get 10 catches, which would mean we only need four from the last one.

4 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS Cash Games – Week 10 Checkdown

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

Another solid week of NFL DFS Cash Games for the Win Daily Team in Week Nine – the sample lineup from last week’s Checkdown crossed the pay-line yet again in DraftKings single entry cash games (180.61 DraftKings points)! Let’s get right back to it for the Week 10 Checkdown for your NFL DFS Cash Games.

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My articles will be mainly meant for DraftKings, but you can certainly use this information for other DFS websites. Please check back in on Saturday/Sunday morning for potential NFL DFS Cash Games updates!

If you have any questions and would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. I’m always available to help NFL DFS players make the most of their investments.

Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 10, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

There are a lot of value options at the WR position, but I strongly believe you are going to need at least one of these top-tier WRs.
I’m out on Kalen Ballage.
It appears to be impossible to fade Christian McCaffrey in any DFS lineup right now – especially cash games. Lock him in!
I don’t see much value in paying down at QB this week.
Just because someone is not included in this write-up, does not mean you cannot play them in cash. These are all just my preferred plays for an optimal cash game build.

NFL DFS Cash Games Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson ($7,300) – Jackson is part running back, part quarterback. Baltimore is a double-digit favorite on the road here so we do have to worry about this game potentially getting out of hand, but Lamar Jackson is as safe as they come in DFS cash games.
Drew Brees ($6,700) – Drew Brees at home, in what should be a high scoring game (opening total of 51 points) against a terrible Atlanta secondary. Yes, please.
Kyler Murray ($6,500) – Everyone torches this Tampa Bay pass defense as they are giving up the most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks. Kyler also provides us with some rushing yards to help raise that floor a bit. He’s certainly cash and GPP viable this week in what should be a very fast-paced, shootout style of football.
Daniel Jones ($5,700) – Jones is risky, but if you need salary relief, you can certainly do worse against Daniel Jones against the Jets beat-up secondary.

NFL DFS Cash Games Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey ($10,500) – Do we need to say anything about Christian McCaffrey? Locking in McCaffrey should be the first thing you do in your cash game lineups.
Saquon Barkley ($8,800) – Great price for the most talented running back in the NFL. It’s going to be tough to afford both McCaffrey and Barkley, and I would 100% choose McCaffrey if I had to play one, but Barkley is cash viable.
Nick Chubb ($7,000) – Another game, another 20+ touches for Nick Chubb. This guy is a volume monster and we should not worry about the return of Kareem Hunt just yet. Buffalo’s run defense is nothing to be afraid of.
Marlon Mack ($7,000) – We love using running backs against this Miami defense and we love using running backs who are double-digit favorites at home. Mack checks both of those boxes.
Derrick Henry ($6,400) – I don’t usually love Henry on DraftKings due to his lack of work in the passing game, but he is coming off of a monster performance against Carolina and goes up against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL (who are starting to get better as they get healthier).

The Titans are at home against the Chiefs in Week 10 and should game-plan to get Henry 25+ touches to run clock and keep the Chiefs’ off the field as much as possible. The Chiefs got defensive tackle Chris Jones back last week and he had a huge impact in slowing down Dalvin Cook, but Henry’s price is so affordable so he is definitely in play for cash games.
David Montgomery ($5,300) – Detroit is getting pounded by opposing running backs. David Montgomery is finally starting to run away with the Bears’ RB1 position and should be in store for 20+ touches this week.

The Bears clearly can’t move the ball via the pass so they will have to lean on Montgomery here at home to keep this game close with Detroit. He’s also coming off of back-to-back 22+ DraftKings’ point outings.
Devin Singletary ($5,000) – It appears as if the rookie running back has finally placed himself atop of the Bills’ RB depth chart. Singletary ran the ball 20 times last week and remained active in the Bills’ passing game as well. I don’t think we need to worry about Frank Gore taking meaningful snaps away from Singletary.
Ronald Jones ($4,300) – If you need salary relief at the running back position, Ronald Jones is your man in Week 10. He’s going to be the main focus in the Bucs’ backfield for the remainder of the season and should have plenty of opportunities to score in this matchup against Arizona.

Wide Receivers

Michael Thomas ($8,300) – Thomas is the McCaffrey of wide receivers. He gets it done week in and week out. He is by far my number one receiver in DFS this week.
Tyreek Hill ($7,700) – If you read the cash writeup each week, you know I love to pick on this Tennessee secondary. The last two weeks we loved Mike Evans and D.J. Moore and they both smashed in this matchup. I love Hill’s chances this week to do the same.
Chris Godwin ($7,300) – Patrick Peterson is an excellent shadow corner who should be assigned the duty of following Mike Evans around the field on Sunday. Evans is still in play this week, but I’ll go to Godwin in cash as Peterson rarely travels to the slot (where Godwin runs a majority of his routes from). This game is going to shoot out, so get some exposure to it.
Christian Kirk ($5,200) – It was either Kirk of Larry Fitzgerald for me. I like Kirk’s upside way more as it appears Larry Fitzgerald is finally slowing down with old age. This is a great matchup against the Tampa Bay secondary so I’m going to go with the receiver with more upside, Christian Kirk.
Sammy Watkins ($5,100) – Similar matchup as why we love Tyreek Hill so much. If you need salary relief and can’t afford Hill, use Watkins.
Marquise Brown ($5,100) – We may need a high flyer if we’re paying down at so many spots to afford CMC and Michael Thomas.
Jamison Crowder ($5,000) – The “little guy” from the Jets finally got his groove back with Sam Darnold in Week Nine against the Dolphins. Crowder should be able to get open early and often against Giants’ slot cornerbacks, Corey Ballentine and Grant Haley (who are not good in coverage).
DeVante Parker ($4,800) – Four straight weeks of double-digit DraftKings’ outings for Devante Parker. Fitzpatrick being under center has certainly raised Parker’s value and he should continue to get seven or more targets a game. Miami will fall behind early in this game against the Colts and that should really help Parker’s chances of getting a strong volume from Fitzpatrick.

Preston Williams is also out for the season… it should be #ParkerSzn.
Tyler Boyd ($4,700) – Boyd is averaging over 10 targets a game. I don’t think there is anyone priced under $5,500 that has that sort of guaranteed volume, so Boyd is without-a-doubt in play for cash games.

If A.J. Green were to return, I’m still fine with using Boyd in cash (I may even prefer it). The Bengals are going to be down early against the Ravens so Boyd should see another heavy workload in the passing game.
A.J. Brown (4,300) – I’m starting to like the rapport A.J. Brown and Ryan Tannehill are building together. I don’t love this play at all, but if Kansas City gets ahead early, Tennessee will have to abandon the run-first focus they usually have with Derrick Henry. If you’re a believer in the potential game script of Kansas City scoring early and often, A.J. Brown makes a ton of sense at this price.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($6,400) – If you can afford him, you can always play him in cash. The floor with Kelce is probably higher than any other tight end in the field, but so is his price.
Austin Hooper ($5,500) – Hooper has put up double digit DraftKings points in all but one game this season. His price is affordable and he should continue to be a focal point of this Atlanta offense as they play from behind in New Orleans.
Cameron Brate ($3,700) & O.J. Howard ($3,300)- I’ll probably take Brate out later in the week if his injury status becomes more clear. He barely played last week in Seattle, so obviously, something is off. If he’s out, O.J. Howard is just your classic tight end against the Cardinals play… although there is very little data on the Bucs’ side that supports playing Howard.
Greg Olsen ($3,600) – If we’re paying down at tight end, I strongly prefer Olsen in this spot against the Packers than I do messing around with Cameron Brate or O.J. Howard.
Jack Doyle ($3,600) – Same as last week… when T.Y. Hilton is out, these Indianapolis tight ends get a solid bump up in my projections. There’s nothing sexy here about Jack Doyle, but he should hit value for us in cash games with Brian Hoyer under center.
Mike Gesicki ($3,100) – Punt play if you need more salary relief. Gesicki is coming off of the best game of his career and should be able to ride that momentum into Week 10 against the Colts. Preston Williams is out for the season with a torn ACL, so there are a lot of red-zone targets to be had for Gesicki.

Defense/Special Teams

Baltimore Ravens ($4,000)
New Orleans Saints ($3,700)
Indianapolis Colts ($3,500)
Los Angeles Rams ($3,000)
Buffalo Bills ($2,900)
New York Giants ($2,800)
Tennessee Titans ($2,000) – Punt play if Patrick Mahomes is out.

NFL DFS Cash Games – Sample Lineup

QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Ronald Jones
RB: David Montgomery
WR: Michael Thomas
WR: Tyler Boyd
WR: Christian Kirk
TE: Mike Gesicki
FLEX: Christian McCaffrey
DST: Tennessee Titans

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

NFL DFS Cash Games – Week Eight Checkdown

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

Another awesome week of NFL DFS Cash Games for the Win Daily Team in Week Seven – even the sample lineup from last week’s Checkdown crossed the pay-line in DraftKings single entry cash games! Let’s get right back to it for the Week Eight Checkdown for your NFL DFS Cash Games.

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Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week Eight, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

There are a lot of mid-tier options at the WR position, but at first glance, I strongly suggest locking in one “stud” top-tier WR.
I do think you need to build around Saquon Barkley. At first glance, I was going to fade the top-tier RBs, but I’m not nearly as confident in the running backs outside of Barkley.
Just because someone is not included in this write-up, does not mean you cannot play them in cash. These are all just my preferred plays for an optimal cash game build.

NFL DFS Cash Games Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson ($7,200) – Top play at the QB position on paper for Week Eight. If Matt Ryan were to miss this game with an ankle injury, I will fade Russell at this price due my concerns with the Falcons’ ability to keep this game close without Ryan.
Deshaun Watson ($7,100) – Oakland is terrible at defending the pass. The Texans don’t really have a strong running game so they will need a lot of production from Watson in the game with the highest total on Vegas’ board. Watson should be a lock for that 300-yard passing bonus on DraftKings.
Matthew Stafford ($6,100) – Solid price, good matchup. I was honestly a bit shocked to see an opening total of 50 points for this Giants at Lions matchup in Week Eight. The Lions have been having a tough time moving the ball via the run, so I’m confident the Lions’ will rely on Stafford and these talented pass-catchers to beat up on a weak Giants’ secondary. Hopefully this game can shootout like Vegas predicts.
Derek Carr ($5,000) – I touched base on the Texans’ secondary last week when writing up Jacoby Brissett. They are riddled with injuries and have given up the sixth most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks this year.

I have no doubt the Texans’ will be scoring points in this game which should lead to a great gamescript for DFS players interested in Derek Carr. Incredible price for a QB in what should be the highest scoring game on the slate. Using Carr opens up a lot for the rest of your NFL DFS Cash Game roster.
Mitch Trubisky ($4,900) – This is gross, but the price is incredible. The Chargers’ defense is in shambles and I’m quite confident Trubisky can hit 3x value on this slate, easily.

NFL DFS Cash Games Running Backs

Saquon Barkley ($8,900) – As of now, I’m going to pass on using Christian McCaffrey ($9,200) at his price. I didn’t use any Barkley in Week Seven DFS as I was a bit nervous to pay a top-tier price for a running back coming off of a significant injury.

Barkley looks like he is a full go moving into Week Eight against a Lions defense that has allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Look for Barkley to get much more involved in the passing game as well this week, which greatly increases his value.
Leonard Fournette ($7,800) – The Jets’ defense has been respectable, but I’ll keep going back to Fournette while he’s priced under $8k. The dude is averaging damn near 25 touches per game and it doesn’t appear that Fournette’s volume is going to decrease. In cash games, volume is key, so lock-in Fournette with confidence.
Chris Carson ($7,000) – The Falcons’ defense is broken. Carson should have a heavy workload (per usual) on the road in Atlanta in Week Eight. Week Seven was disappoint for Carson but he will bounce back this week.
Le’Veon Bell ($6,900) – Le’Veon Bell is an absolute workhorse and is another one of those few running backs who is averaging over 22 touches per game. At this price, Bell appears to be a no-brainer for NFL DFS Cash Games in Week Eight.
Nick Chubb ($6,600) – Nick Chubb under $7k? Yea, I’ll play him.
Josh Jacobs ($5,800) – I’d rather play Derek Carr and an Oakland pass-catcher, but this is simply a value play. Jacobs has been getting a ton of volume lately and continues to run a few routes in the passing game (which hopefully will increase). The Texans bleed receptions to opposing running backs and have been allowing over 26 DraftKings points per game to opposing backs over the past month.

Jacobs should be a lock for 25+ touches again in Week Eight but he’s priced like a running back in a timeshare. Take advantage of that if you need some salary relief at the RB position.
Latavius Murray ($5,800) – Murray is coming off of arguably the best game of his NFL career (or at least since he left the Raiders) and should be able to build on that in Week Eight against a weak Arizona Defense. Murray is a lock-button if Alvin Kamara is ruled out.
Devonta Freeman ($5,500) – Matt Ryan appears to be active for this game at home against the Seahawks so I have a lot of faith in Atlanta at least moving the ball on offense. Freeman is still priced at a great spot for a guy who can easily end up with five or more catches and 100 all-purpose yards. Excellent value for cash. No Matt Ryan.
Ty Johnson ($4,900) – Kerryon Johnson to the IR – Welcome to Ty Johnson chalk week. I’m confident he’ll get the majority of the work, but I’m a bit nervous that J.D. McKissic will be heavily involved as well. I think there is 100% a case to fade Ty Johnson this week but it’s not necessary in cash games.
Carlos Hyde ($4,700) – There isn’t a whole lot of value targets at the running back position this week, but Hyde seems to be one of the few. I have Hyde projected for 18 carries, 75 yards, and a touchdown. That will be more than enough to hit value in cash games.

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins ($8,100) – Top WR on the slate. Hopkins is starting to heat up and should feast yet again in Week Eight at home against the Raiders.
Michael Thomas ($8,000) – Thomas is averaging over 23 DraftKings points per game and over 10 targets per game. How do you not play him?
~~Chris Godwin ($7,100) –~~ Godwin is averaging the most DraftKings points per game at the wide receiver position. If you would have told me that prior to the season starting, I would have said you’re crazy. Yet, here we are. Godwin continues to be 100% cash viable although I still haven’t fully bought in. Pivoting to Evans if I play any Bucs’ wideouts.
Tyler Lockett ($7,000) – I love attacking Damontae Kazee and this Falcons’ secondary. Lockett should have no issues having his way with them on Sunday.
Kenny Golladay ($6,400) – I think Kerryon Johnson’s injury is going to push the Lions towards passing the ball more. Golladay should see a lot of DeAndre Baker in coverage and that is music to my ears. Golladay is one of my favorite wide receiver plays on the slate.
Mike Evans ($6,600) – I’m off of Godwin and on to Mike Evans. Evans should feast in this matchup against Adoree Jackson and Malcolm Butler while Logan Ryan deals with slowing down Chris Godwin. $500 discount off of Godwin is too much to ignore.
Allen Robinson ($6,000) – Just keep playing him at a discount. Robinson is the only bright spot on the Bears’ offense and continues to rake in the targets from whoever is under center. Robinson lines up all over the field so there are no concerns of an all-day matchup against Casey Hayward.
John Brown ($5,900) – Attack the Eagles’ secondary every week. John Brown is always one play away from breaking the slate and also provides a solid floor needed in cash games. I have Brown projected for 110 receiving yards and a touchdown. He should have no problems getting the ball often on Sunday.
Larry Fitzgerald ($5,400) – Fitzgerald is only in this writeup because of the $700 discount from his $6,100 price tag he carried in Week Seven. P.J. Williams is suspended for one more game so this isn’t my usual “pick on P.J.” week, but the price is right for Fitzgerald this week.
Courtland Sutton ($5,300) – I have no idea what it will take for Sutton to be priced up in the $6k range where he belongs. Sutton is owning the Broncos’ air yards and red zone targets and that doesn’t appear to be stopping any time soon. Sutton offers us a very nice value at the WR position.
Zay Jones ($3,000) – I’m confident newly acquired Zay Jones will finally be active on Sunday against the Texans. Jones has had a few weeks to acclimate himself with the Raiders’ offense and should be their second best option in the passing game (assuming Tyrell Williams is out) behind tight end, Darren Waller. If he suits up, this is a great buy-low week on Zay Jones.

Tight Ends

Darren Waller ($5,900) – Keep playing Waller, he is an absolute stud and should be heavily active in this shootout against the Texans.
Austin Hooper ($5,500) – Hooper has gone for double-digit DraftKings points in all but one game this season. Hooper enters this week in an excellent matchup against the Seahawks. I will downgrade him a bit if Matt Ryan is ruled out but he is certainly cash viable without Ryan.
Evan Engram ($5,300) – Nice discount for a top-tier tight end. The Lions have had troubles all season long with opposing tight ends.
Zach Ertz ($5,100) – I know he hasn’t done a whole lot this year, but Ertz should never be priced under $6k. This is a great price for one of the best tight ends in the NFL.
Hunter Henry ($4,900) – Great price, great matchup. Henry will continue to be a top target for Phil Rivers’ and this Chargers’ passing game. I don’t love his ceiling this week, but I do have him projected for 75 yards and a score.
Jonnu Smith ($2,800) – Jonnu Smith opens up the world for our cash game roster construction now that Delanie Walker has been ruled out.

Defense/Special Teams

Los Angeles Rams ($3,800)
San Francisco 49ers ($3,700)
Tennessee Titans ($3,200)
Indianapolis Colts ($2,900)
New York Jets ($2,600)

NFL DFS Cash Games – Sample Lineup

QB: Derek Carr
RB: Le’Veon Bell
RB: Chris Carson
WR: Michael Thomas
WR: Allen Robinson
WR: Zay Jones
TE: Hunter Henry
FLEX: Nick Chubb
DST: New York Jets

5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 6 Wide Receiver DFS Picks: I Got a Thielen

Joel Bartilotta 5 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Last week’s article was easily my best of the season. We actually had Michael Thomas and Chris Godwin as our cash game plays and both players finished as Top-5 WRs for the week. We also had Will Fuller in our GPP section and needless to say, that went well too with him likely dropping the highest point total of the season. Hopefully, we can continue that success here and ride these WRs to some more cash. With that in mind, let’s get into our Week 6 wide receiver breakdown.

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Week 6 Wide Receiver Cash Game Plays

Adam Thielen, MIN vs. PHI

DK ($6,700) FD ($7,200)

Thielen made a fuss about the lack of passing going on in Minnesota and it’s clear the coaches listened when you see his Week 5 performance. Thielen led the way with seven catches for 130 yards and two TDs. That’s the guy we saw throughout the majority of 2018, with Thielen leading the team with 113 receptions for 1,373 yards and nine TDs. The simple fact is, this team needs to throw the ball more and 27 attempts last week indicate that they’re starting to realize it. Throwing the ball against Philly is the optimal strategy against this defense too, with the Eagles owning a 32^nd OPRK against WRs while allowing the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL.

Terry McLaurin, WSH at MIA

DK ($6,000) FD ($6,400)

The man known as “Scary Terry” has been doing work all season long and this may actually be his best matchup of the season. Let’s begin with that opposition, facing a Dolphins team who ranks last in both yards and points surrendered. That’s also evident when you see that they own a 25^th OPRK against wide receivers this season. That’s all good news for McLaurin, as this dude has established himself as the focal point of the Redskins offense. In fact, he leads the club with a 19.4 percent team target share while playing 90.4 percent of the snaps. That’s led to him collecting 19 receptions for 308 receiving yards and three TDs, which is huge against a crappy defense like this.

Week 6 Wide Receiver GPP Plays

Will Fuller, HOU at KC

DK ($6,000) FD ($6,600)

Let’s go back to the well with Fuller. All of the indicators told us that this was just a matter of time and 56.7 DK points in Week 5 is all the regression we could ask for. The facts remain the same: He’s one of the league leaders in air yards per target and is playing on nearly 98 percent of the team’s snaps. That pairs beautifully with his 107.2 air yards per game, which is simply one of the best marks in the NFL. The best part about this play might be the matchup though, with Kansas City ranked 21^st in OPRK against WRs this season after allowing the second-most passing yards in the NFL last year.

Mike Williams, LAC vs. PIT

DK ($4,600) FD ($6,200)

Williams will only be available in the Sunday Night slates but he is one of my favorite plays of the week. The $4,600 price tag on DK is inexcusable and I simply can’t understand why he’s so affordable. Not only has Williams played 91 percent of the snaps over his last two games, he’s also got 20 targets in that span while averaging 100 air yards per game this season. That’s really all you can ask for from someone priced so cheaply, particularly someone as talented as Williams. We’re talking about a freak specimen who scored 10 TDs last year in his sophomore season. The matchup against Pittsburgh is the icing on the cake, with the Steelers allowing the most fantasy points in the league to opposing WRs last season while sitting 17^th in total defense this year.

Week 6 Wide Receiver Punt Plays

Byron Pringle, KC vs. HOU

DK ($3,500) FD ($4,500)

This is the best punt play of the slate. How often do you see the top WR for the best offense in football priced this cheaply? Ok, that might be stretching a bit but he was the best wide receiver for the Chiefs in Week 5. That was clear when he collected six catches for 103 yards and a TD on nine targets. Playing 78 percent of the snaps may have been the most encouraging sign, as he’ll surely reach that total again if Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins are out. He may have usurped Mecole Hardman on the depth chart too, playing 10 more snaps than him in Week 5. Facing Houston is the final piece to the puzzle, with the Texans owning a 31^st OPRK against WRs according to DraftKings.

Jamison Crowder, NYJ vs. DAL

DK ($4,000) FD ($5,400)

This is totally risky but part of me feels like either Robby Anderson or Jamison Crowder is going to bounce back here. Everyone is doubting these guys because of this horrendous Jets offense but getting Sam Darnold back is exactly what the doctor ordered (no pun intended). This is one of the most talented QBs in the game and it should add exponential value to these Jets wide receivers. The reason I like Crowder is because he was Darnold’s go-to guy in Week 1, leading the NFL with 14 receptions on 17 targets. He actually played at least 90 percent of the snaps in the first three weeks and we expect that total to jump back here with Darnold back behind center While Dallas does have a tough defense, the fact that New York enters this matchup as an 8.5-point underdog should force them to throw a ton.

5 years ago 0 comment

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

NFL DFS Week 5 Reactions and Outlooks: Win Daily Dozen

adam.sardinha1@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by adam.sardinha1@gmail.com

NFL Week 5 is all but in the books. Let’s look at the biggest takeaways from all of Sunday’s action. We will analyze 12 major takeaways from the games played. Above all, we will also look ahead to Week 6 and see what edges we can get for the upcoming main slate. The prices discussed are for DraftKings.

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Will Fuller

All analysts at Win Daily were touting Will Fuller all week so I really hope you listened. Not only did he have a big game, but Fuller’s Week 5 performance was one for the ages. Via ESPN.com this was the highest Fantasy point total by any player since Jamaal Charles scored 59.5 points in Week 15 of 2013. Fuller is the first wide receiver to score that many points since Terrell Owens scored 54.8 in Week 16 in 2000. At his price of $4,500, he was so easy to fit into any lineup. Fuller caught 14 of 16 targets for 217 receiving yards and three touchdowns during Sunday’s 53-32 win against the Falcons. He scored over 50 fantasy points. The Deshaun Watson to Will Fuller stack scored over 100 fantasy points.

Fuller was owned in 20 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was also owned in 31 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. A lot of people saw this big game coming for Fuller. With the Texans facing the Chiefs next week Fuller is bound to be extremely popular, even with his salary increased to $6,000.

Michael Thomas

Thomas secured 11 of 13 targets for 182 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday. Thomas has not missed a step since Teddy Bridgewater took over, but his price was low at $6,600. In Week 6 his price has gone up to $7,800. He is going to have very high ownership because of this next week. But as sharp DFS players know, you should always fade the high-priced chalky wide receivers. We saw it this week with both Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins. Both were over $7,700 and 20 percent ownership, and it did not pay off. Thomas was owned in 20 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was also owned in 25 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest.

Amari Cooper

Will Fuller led Week 5 in receiving yards for a few hours before Amari Cooper went over 225 receiving yards in the later portion on Sunday. You need to identify top-end wide receiver talents at the cheaper price tags. Cooper had ownership of just 3.4 percent in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. Someone to keep in mind that fits the high wide receiver talent pool under $7,000 for Week 6 is Odell Beckham Jr. at $6,800.

Aaron Jones

It’s a shame that not more people played Aaron Jones in Week 5. He was set up for a smash spot because of the injury to Jamaal Williams. There should have been no question of how many touches he would receive. Jones was owned in just 11.8 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was also owned in 17.6 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. The main takeaway here from Jones’ four-touchdown performance is that injuries matter A LOT.

Injuries might be a more important factor than matchups. If you followed that type of thinking you would have played Jones over a guy with a great matchup in the same game in Ezekiel Elliott. He did not nearly have as much production in Week 6. One could make the argument that was because the Cowboys were banged up at the offensive line position.

Eagles D/ST

The rule for DFS has usually been to pay down at defense. However, lately this season we have seen defenses put up over 30 fantasy points. In most cases, it has been for expensive defenses that are in obvious great matchups. The Eagles D/ST had ownership of just 6.5 percent in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest, and 3.2 percent in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. These ownership percentages were extremely low compared to the Panthers D/ST.

That unit was by far the highest owned on the main slate. They had ownership of 32.1 percent in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. They were also in 13.8 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. As we look to Week 6 with the Cowboys playing the Jets this might be a spot worth paying up for in both cash and GPP formats if Sam Darnold misses the game.

Adam Thielen

You know the old saying “Squeaky wheel gets the grease?” Well, nothing could have been more apparent on Sunday. Adam Thielen was the wheel getting all the grease in Minnesota. Thielen caught seven of eight targets for 130 yards and two touchdowns. Thielen had ownership of five percent in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. He had ownership of 13.1 percent in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. In Week 6, Thielen gets an equally great matchup against the Eagles. His salary remains the same at $6,700.

Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey is a pretty good football player. He scored 50.7 fantasy points in Week 5. He now has scored 30 or more points in four of his five games so far this season. In the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest his ownership was just at 56.1 percent. What that translates to is that almost 44 percent of lineups did not feature him in cash. As a public service announcement to all, when McCaffrey is on the main slate you must lock him into your cash lineups. He is a must-play. However, we will be without him in Week 6, because the Panthers are playing an early game on Sunday.

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Austin Hooper

We love targeting tight ends that play the Arizona Cardinals. Well, at least we like good tight ends that play them. The most popular play at tight end in Tyler Eifert was only able to score 3.4 fantasy points against the Cardinals in Week 5. He was in 26.8 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. In Week 6, the Cardinals will host the Atlanta Falcons. That is the prime spot for Austin Hooper. He is coming off another productive performance in Week 5 where he had six receptions on nine targets for 56 yards. The nine targets were a team-high. With 42 targets through the first five weeks, Hooper is entering elite status at tight end. He will surely be heavily owned in Week 6, but all signs point to a productive outing.

Auden Tate

DFS players should always be fading the high-priced chalkier wide receivers. But we should always be buying the low-priced chalkier wide receivers. That receiver was Auden Tate in Week 5. He was priced at $3,500. Tate was owned in 35.8 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was owned in a whopping 77 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. Though things looked bleak in the first half for Tate with Andy Dalton completing just four passes, he turned things around in the second half. Tate finished the day with one touchdown reception and three receptions on a total of six targets. He is going to be $4,500 in Week 6, but will most likely see coverage from Marlon Humphrey from Baltimore, so he is somebody I will be fading.

Leonard Fournette

Heading into Week 5, Fournette was averaging right around 24 touches per game but had yet to score a touchdown. He finally broke his touchdown drought by scoring from one yard out. Fournette was owned in 14.3 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was owned in 21 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. Fournette had 27 touches in Week 5 and because of the guaranteed volume, he needs to be considered in Week 6 with his salary at just $6,700. The matchup is difficult though, with the Jaguars playing the Saints. New Orleans gives up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the running back position. Fournette profiles as a GPP play in Week 6.

DJ Chark

There may not be a bigger WR surprise than D.J. Chark. After Week 5, he now has five touchdown receptions in just as many games. Chark was owned in just 3.6 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. Now people are going to see the Saints matchup and project Chark to be a bust in Week 6. Marshon Lattimore is coming off a game where he just completely blanked Mike Evans. However, Evans and Chark are two completely different wide receivers. Evans is a size specimen whereas Chark is a guy that possesses 4.34 speed. At just $5,500 entering Week 6 Chark is too cheap. The Saints still allow the fifth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position.

Dede Westbrook, who is priced at $5,100, is also worth considering. The Saints have struggled against slot receivers this season. Chris Godwin, Tyler Lockett, and Cooper Kupp all went over 100 yards when they played the Saints. Westbrook is coming off his best game of the year, as he had seven receptions on 11 targets for 82 receiving yards.

Dalvin Cook

No matter what team Cook faces he always seems to deliver for his fantasy owners. Cook was owned in 13.2 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was also owned in just 12.1 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. Cook has now scored at least 19 fantasy points in every single game this season. He should be considered a lock-in your lineup in Week 6 when the Vikings play the Eagles. Though the Eagles have not allowed more than 50 rushing yards to an opposing rusher this season they have allowed 13 receptions to the position over the past two weeks. Cook has seen 14 targets in his last two games and is averaging 22.6 touches per game. His salary remains at $8,400 in Week 6.

Image Via Jeffrey Beall

5 years ago 0 comment

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 5 Wide Receiver DFS Picks: Thank Godwin

Cora Baylis 5 years ago

written by Cora Baylis

Our picks have been killing it this season but last week wasn’t our best. Keenan Allen and Tyler Lockett both let us down but we should have known better with our projected game scripts. That’s something I need to do a better job of this week and I believe that I’ve formulated a list of players here who won’t become victim to bad game scripts. With that in mind, let’s get into our Week 5 Wide Receiver plays.

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Week 5 Wide Receiver Cash Game Plays

Chris Godwin, TB at NO

DK ($6,900) FD ($7,800)

Godwin is currently the third-best WR in fantasy right now and he’s not being priced like it. Collecting 26 receptions for 286 yards and four TDs is impressive in its own right and it’s clear he’s Winston’s go-to guy right now out of the slot. Most importantly, he has played all but 16 snaps for the entirety of the season, which equates to about 95 percent. That sort of sky-high potential and opportunity is awesome in a matchup like this, with the Saints allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season.

Michael Thomas, NO vs. TB

DK ($6,600) FD ($7,700)

These DFS sites are clearly concerned with Thomas missing Drew Brees but these prices are getting too low for someone of his ability. The simple fact is, this dude is a target hound. In fact, he ranks third in the NFL with 42 targets and actually ranks fourth in the league in percentage of team’s air yards. That means he’s the focal point of this offense, which is huge for a guy who led the league in catches last season and has recorded at least nine receptions in three of his first four games this year. That’s splendid news against a secondary like this, with Tampa allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season. In his two games against the Buccaneers last season, Thomas collected 27 catches for 278 yards, if you needed any more incentive.

Week 5 Wide Receiver GPP Plays

Josh Gordon, NE at WSH

DK ($6,100) FD ($6,200)

Gordon has been slightly disappointing this season but he’s still got too much upside to be priced this affordably. The recent results are what’s really encouraging, with Gordon collecting 18 targets over his last two games. That’s really all we can ask for from a talented player like this, with JG averaging 17.3 receiving yards per reception for his career. The peripherals back up all of that, with Gordon posting a 19 percent team target share while amassing 23 percent of his team’s air yardage. That potential is really enticing in a matchup like this, with the Redskins allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing WRs.

Alshon Jeffery, PHI vs. NYJ

DK ($5,900) FD ($6,700)

Jeffery never really gets the credit he deserves. This guy has done nothing but produce throughout his career and these sites just continue to undervalue him. While he’s only played two games this year, he’s still averaging 11.6 DK points per game. That’s pretty much the guy we’ve seen throughout his career, recording at least 789 receiving yards in six-straight seasons, collecting 38 TDs in that span. The Jets are certainly not a team we’re worried about either, allowing the fifth-most receiving yards and the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. Philly is projected to have a big game too, entering this matchup as a 14-point favorite while being forecasted to score 28 points.

Week 5 Wide Receiver Punt Plays

Will Fuller, HOU vs. ATL

DK ($4,500) FD ($5,700)

Fuller always had sky-high potential and it’s just a matter of time before he goes off. What makes him really scary for opposing secondaries is his big-play potential, with Fuller averaging 14.4 yards per reception for his career while ranking fifth in the NFL with 16.8 targeted air yards per catch this season. That’s really all you can ask for with Fuller playing 96 percent of the team’s snaps this season. That has to put fear in the Falcons eyes, with Atlanta allowing Jacoby Brissett and Marcus Mariota to slice them up the last two games to the tune of 24 DK points per outing.

Robby Anderson, NYJ at PHI

DK ($4,500) FD ($5,500)

Anderson has had a down season because of his quarterback inefficiencies but this is a spot for him to succeed. Let’s begin with his matchup, facing an Eagles team thar allows the most receiving yards and the most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season. That’s fantastic news for a talented guy like Anderson, as he actually leads the NFL with 48 percent of his team’s air yards. That tells us that he’s the focal point of this passing game, which pairs beautifully with the fact that he plays about 90 percent of the team’s snaps. The game script is brilliant too, with the Eagles entering this matchup as a 14-point favorite, thus forcing the Jets to play catch-up and throw the ball to Anderson.

Trey Quinn, WSH vs. NE

DK ($3,500) FD ($5,100)

Quinn is the definition of a punt play. While he’s yet to have a big game, the role tells us that it’s just a matter of time before he does. Collecting 24 targets is good enough but he’s also playing about 83 percent of the team’s snaps out of the slot. That’s a lot of time on the field to be priced this cheaply, particularly for a guy who has at least four catches and 30 yards in three-straight games. The reason he could play a ton here is because of this matchup, with Washington entering this game as a 16-point underdog. That should force a ton of throwing from the Redskins and it’s very possible that Quinn will see double-digit targets with his team playing catchup all day.

5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS Week Two: Touches and Targets Outlooks

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide NFL DFS touches and targets for the Week Two 13-game main slate. I will break down players into three tiers: High, mid, and low.

High Tier

NFL DFS WR: DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) ($9000 FD|$8100 DK)

61% Reception rate. 13 Targets, 8 receptions, 13.9 yards per reception (Week One).

DeAndre Hopkins is such a key part of this offense and his 100% snap share makes him a top wide receiver play week in and out. Sammy Watkins had a huge game with nine receptions, 198 yards, and three touchdowns. I’m not not a believer in this Jacksonville defense and I do not think Week One was an outlier. I’ll take Hopkins as a top play in Week Two.

NFL DFS WR: JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT) ($8100 FD|$7500 DK)

75% Reception rate. 8 Targets, 6 Receptions, 9.8 yards per reception (Week One).

Let’s keep this one simple. The Bengals just tossed over 400 passing yards and two TDs against the Seattle defense in their house. Big Ben is better at home through history, but we have seen those splits come closer together the last two years. The Steelers lost two massive pieces on their offense and the 33-3 beat-down in Foxborough doesn’t bode much confidence. Nonetheless I think we have to consider a Big Ben/Smith-Schuster correlation for tournaments if you’re running multiple lines. Smith-Schuster just as one-off is fine too.

NFL DFS WR: Michael Thomas (NOS) ($8500 FD|$8000 DK)

77% Reception rate. 13 Targets, 10 Receptions, 12.3 yards per reception (Week One).

Michael Thomas should draw a good bit of ownership on Sunday, although he does draw Marcus Peters in coverage. This game comes in with the highest score total so this is definitely a spot you’ll want to highly consider. There isn’t a whole lot of weight to back the Drew Brees dome/no dome theory. Any QB is going to be better when not dealing with the elements, but Brees has identical completion percentages, (66% no dome, 69% dome) and not a big flux in points scored on the road versus at home.

NFL DFS WR: Keenan Allen (LAC) ($7700 FD|$7600 DK)

80% Reception rate. 10 Targets, 8 Receptions, 15.4 yards per reception (Week One).

Keenan Allen is probably my bottom play in terms of top receivers. He doesn’t get that great of a matchup but the Chargers really have no other weapons outside of Allen and Ekeler. Mike Williams is banged up and Hunter Henry is out again. The Chargers have limited options so we should see Rivers try to get the ball to who he is comfortable with and that is Keenan Allen.

NFL DFS RB: Saquon Barkley (NYG) ($9200 FD|$9200 DK)

85% Snap Share, 6 Targets, 4 Receptions, 9.3 yards per touch (Week One).

Game-script affected the way Saquon Barkley was utilized in the Giants offense. He only had 11 carries and four receptions and still managed 139 all-purpose yards. That is the definition of efficiency and Buffalo isn’t quite as good as Dallas against the run. Sterling Shephard is now in concussion protocol and the Giants lack offensive luster outside of Shephard, Engram, and Barkley. He should see a nice increase in usage and wouldn’t be surprised to see him get 20+ touches in Week Two.

Honorable Mention:

Ezekiel Elliott ($8500 FD|$8700 DK): 14 touches, 63 all-purpose yards, 1 TD (Week One).

Mid Tier

NFL DFS WR: Adam Thielen (MIN) ($7300 FD|$7100 DK)

100% Reception rate. 3 Targets, 3 Receptions, 14 yards per reception (Week One).

Kirk Cousins only threw the ball 10 times in Week One, completing eight of them for 98 yards and a TD. Dalvin Cook and the Minnesota defense pretty much handled the rest. This is a big division game against Green Bay and I think we see a lot more passing given run defense is one of the Packers’ strengths. Adam Thielen should see at least 10 looks on Sunday.

NFL DFS WR: Cooper Kupp (LAR) ($6800 FD|$6000 DK)

70% Reception rate. 10 Targets, 7 Receptions, 6.6 yards per reception (Week One).

Cooper Kupp gets one of the best pound for pound matchups on the slate against P.J. Williams. The Rams didn’t look great offensively last Sunday but Jared Goff home/road splits are a thing. At home, Goff is completing 68% of his passes compared to 60% on the road. He also averaged 342 passing yards per per game at home (he threw over 400 in some) versus 243 on the road. Kupp was one of the highest targeted receivers in the red zone and averaged nine targets per game last season. I like him particularly on DK for the PPR.

NFL DFS WR: Julian Edelman (NEP) ($7100 FD|$6900 DK)

62% Reception rate. 95 Targets, 59 Receptions, nine yards per target (Week One).

It will be interesting to see what kind of game plan Bill Belichick rolls out in Miami. His team is talented in all three phrases and he has numerous weapons and depth to compliment those weapons. I’m not a huge fan but I’d be neglectful to not include Julian Edelman. My theory is based on game script. I think this game correlates better with RB paired with DST as opposed to QB with WR. I just think they play smart, sound football and grind it out. Edelman should be considered, he just won’t be in my main lineup.

Honorable Mentions: Robert Woods ($7300 FD|$6400 DK), Kenny Golladay ($6600 FD|$6600 DK), Tyler Boyd ($6300 FD|$6600 DK),

Low Tier/Punts

NFL DFS WR: John Brown (BUF) ($6300 FD|$5200 DK)

70% Reception rate. 10 Targets, 7 Receptions, 17.6 yards per reception (Week One).

John Brown presents great speed against a terrible New York Giants defense. Prior to his departure of Arizona he had dealt with injuries off and on and then was traded to Baltimore and saw minimal work when rookie QB Lamar Jackson came in and ran his way through the rest of the season. Brown is a good receiver and matches up well against Janoris Jenkins. Although I still love a Zay Jones play to pivot off of him, I give John Brown the edge.

NFL DFS WR: Tyrell Williams (OAK) ($5900 FD|$4400 DK)

85% Reception rate. 7 Targets, 6 Receptions, 17 yards per reception (Week One).

The Raiders present overall great value across the board. K.C. has a weak secondary and rookie Gardner Minshew made that pretty evident after going 22-25 and two TD’s last week. Carr has limited weapons and Tyrell should continue to benefit.

NFL DFS WR: Randall Cobb (DAL) ($5500 FD|$4500 DK)

80% Reception rate. 5 Targets, 4 Receptions, 17 yards per reception (Week One).

NFL DFS WR: Chris Conley (JAC) ($4500 FD|$3100 DK)

85% Reception rate. 7 Targets, 6 Receptions, 16 yards per reception (Week One).

NFL DFS RB: Josh Jacobs (OAK) ($4500 FD|$3100 DK)

24 touches for 113 all-purpose yards and 2 TD’s (Week One).

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