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Martin Truex Jr.

NASCAR DFS Post Qualifying Report: Coke Zero Sugar 400

Emely Sharman 5 years ago

written by Emely Sharman

Qualifying always plays a huge part in assembling a NASCAR DFS lineup at Restrictor Plate tracks and that’s what we have this weekend. The Coke Zero Sugar 400 will be Saturday night at Daytona. We will take a quick look at which values have changed after qualifying and who to target.

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Value Increased

There were a lot of low priced drivers who also qualified low that I mentioned in my main preview article. We will take a look at those who have increased values after qualifying.

Ryan Preece has been a good Restrictor Plate driver early in his career and he could be a quality choice after qualifying 26th. He has huge Place Differential upside.

David Ragan qualified one spot lower in 27th and has been pretty good on Restrictor Plate tracks over his career. If he can crack the Top 15 he will be a great value at a low price.

My favorite bargain priced driver did not change after qualifying. Michael McDowell qualified 28th and has shown in the past he can make his way to the front from there. I would not be surprised if McDowell ends up as a Top 5 NASCAR DFS driver Saturday night.

Brendan Gaughan qualified in 39th and has been a bit of a Restrictor Plate specialist in the past. He is a lesser known name because of his limited schedule, which could keep him lower owned. He has huge upside starting so far back.

Austin Dillon qualified 21st and won the Daytona 500 in the past. He has decent value with his price and this starting position.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. will start 19th and has one of the highest Driver Ratings over the past few years. He should provide good value.

Value Decreased

There were a lot of big names who qualified well and became risky plays for Saturday night. These guys could all run well but the risk of wrecking puts them lower in my ranks.

Joey Logano will start on the pole and that is concerning. Although he could lead a lot of laps, the leader often doesn’t run the fastest lap at Daytona. Fast laps are worth more than laps led, which limits his upside.

Kyle Busch is starting second and has all of the same concerns as Joey Logano. He is even higher priced which will make me stay away from him even more than Logano.

Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, and Martin Truex Jr. fill out the Top 5. Their values all took a hit after qualifying.

More big names are in the Top 10 and sixth through 10th goes as follows: Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliot, Kurt Busch, Alex Bowman, and Ryan Blaney. These drivers are in a better spot than those in the Top 5 but are still risky plays.

Top NASCAR DFS Plays

Michael McDowell ($5,700)

Brendan Gaughan ($7,200)

Erik Jones ($8,800)

Avoid

Joey Logano ($10,200)

Kyle Busch ($11,000)

Alex Bowman ($8,600)

Wild Card NASCAR DFS (High Risk – High Reward)

Ryan Blaney ($8,300)

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5 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

DFS NASCAR Post Qualifying Report: Chicagoland

Ethan Thiel 5 years ago

written by Ethan Thiel

The Cup Series is at Chicagoland on Sunday for the Camping World 400. We will take a run through where some of our value plays qualified and what to expect on race day. You can see the Chicagoland DFS NASCAR preview by following the link here. Prices are from DraftKings.

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Our biggest DFS NASCAR bargain play of the weekend ended up qualifying on the pole. Austin Dillon ($6,900) beat Kevin Harvick for the top spot and showed good speed in qualifying. He came out of nowhere as he was outside the Top 20 in both practices. Place Differential is a huge deal at Chicagoland and with Dillon starting on the pole he can’t move up. This makes him a bit of a low upside play but with his price he is still worth a long look.

The guy Dillon beat to the pole, Kevin Harvick ($11,200) ran in the Top 3 in both practices and has shown good speed all weekend. Harvick’s upside is a bit capped with him starting this far up but he should be a great cash game play. If you want to play someone other than Kyle Busch and Truex Jr., Harvick is the clear DFS NASCAR choice.

My top DFS NASCAR play for this week didn’t change from my original article and didn’t change from last week. Martin Truex Jr. ($10,900) is the hottest driver in the series and qualified 18th. Although Truex Jr. has not shown great speeds this week, his recent Chicagoland success and momentum puts him as my top driver. He should run in the Top 5 and contend for a win. Coming from the 18th spot, he should add great upside.

Chase Elliott ($9,700) and Kyle Larson ($9,500) qualified 13th and 14th respectively. These two have a better Chicagoland history than anyone else in the series. They should both run better than they start and provide good PD points. Elliott will be highly owned but Larson could be less owned, making him a great high risk, high reward DFS NASCAR GPP option.

Daniel Suarez ($7,400) should provide great value as he starts 29th and was ninth in final practice for lap averages. Suarez also has an Average Finish of 11.5 at the site. Suarez is a bargain at his price and is a great value option to make space for Truex Jr. or another top priced DFS NASCAR guy.

If you are looking for a DFS NASCAR punt play, Matt DiBenedetto ($6,700) ran pretty well in practice but qualified 30th. He is also coming off a career best finish of fourth at Sonoma.

Top DFS NASCAR Plays

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,200)

Chase Elliott ($9,700)

Kyle Larson ($9,500)

Aric Almirola ($8,200)

Avoid

Kurt Busch ($9,300)

Daniel Hemric ($6,300)

Michael McDowell ($6,100)

DFS NASCAR Wild Card (High Risk, High Reward)

Joey Logano ($10,100)

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5 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS at Chicagoland: Picks and Preview

Emely Sharman 5 years ago

written by Emely Sharman

Chicagoland Speedway hosts the NASCAR Cup Series this upcoming weekend after a dominating performance from Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma. Truex Jr. led 59 of the 90 laps and held off a late charging Kyle Busch for the win. Those two were way in front of the third place finisher, Ryan Blaney, who was over 30 seconds behind. Truex Jr. ,has a great chance to get a repeat win as he won two of the last three races at Chicagoland to go with a fourth place finish last year.

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Outlook

Chicagoland is a 1.5 mile track, with 267 laps, where starting up front does not always mean a driver will finish up front. Only one time since 2005 has the winner came from the front row. This shows that we could have some huge upside drivers who will be starting farther back in the pack. Checking back for our post-qualifying update will be key to putting together a good lineup. Let’s take a look at some of the best values on the slate before qualifying. Salaries are based on DraftKings.

High Salary ($9,000+)

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,900)

Coming off a dominating performance at Sonoma, Truex Jr. should again be the top play this week. He comes in as the third highest priced driver and I believe he should be the top priced. Kyle Busch, the highest priced driver, did win at the site last year but his recent history is not as good as Truex’s. That win was Busch’s only Top 5 since 2013. Truex Jr. has three straight Top 5s and comes in with more confidence and momentum than any other driver in the series. He has not had a Driver Rating under 108 in his last four races at Chicagoland and was over 126 twice. Truex Jr. will be my main target among the high salary drivers.

Chase Elliott ($9,700)

Elliott has a great history at Chicagoland and comes in at his most affordable price since April. He has raced at this site three times in the Cup series with finishes of third, second, and 19th. Even in the 19th place finish, he was second and fourth in the two stages, showing he ran better than he finished. Elliott was the third best car at Sonoma last week before blowing his engine and he should have some confidence coming in. Elliott had 13 straight Top 15s, and five Top 5s in his last six races before the past two down weeks. He should be able to get back to that form at one of his best tracks. Elliott has the top Driver Rating at this track with a 111.4, and the best Average Running Position by a decent margin at 5.064. Elliott should run in the Top 5 most of the day and will be in a great position late in the day.

Kyle Larson ($9,500)

Larson has finished no worse than seventh in all but one of his career starts at Chicagoland. His career Driver Rating of 101.9 ranks fourth in the series and his Average Running Position of 8.848 ranks third. He is behind Jimmie Johnson in both stats and most of Johnson’s excellence at this track came back in the early 2000s, so you can bump him up in those stats in recent years. Larson has yet to put it all together in a points race this year but this is a great track for him and he should be able to contend.

Mid Salary ($8,900 – $7,000)

Denny Hamlin ($8,500)

Denny Hamlin has a really good track history at Chicagoland and has not finished worse than seventh since 2013. His DR over the past five years averaged over 102. He has also ran pretty well recently and led at least one lap in each of the Cup Series’ last four races. Hamlin should be priced above $9,000 at one of his best tracks and he provides great value at Chicagoland.

Ryan Blaney ($8,300)

Blaney is coming into this weekend at Chicagoland with some momentum after finishing third at Sonoma. He has two Top 10s in a row and four straight Top 15s. Blaney’s career at Chicagoland doesn’t really stand out, as he has an Average Finish of 11th and a DR of 86.7. He also comes in at his lowest price in any points race this year and $2,800 under where he peaked. Blaney has shown the ability to get on some hot streaks and I believe he can use his recent momentum to better his career Chicagoland numbers. He seems underpriced here and should return really good value.

Aric Almirola ($8,200)

We are working off of only one race to show us Almirola’s potential at Chicagoland. When he ran with the 43 car, he didn’t show much and only had one Top 10 in his six starts. Last year, driving for Stewart-Haas, although the finish doesn’t show it, Almirola ran really well. His Driver Rating was very high at 109.8 and he led 70 laps but finished 25th. This is a price where we can invest in Almirola.

Jimmie Johnson ($8,000)

This is another track, like Sonoma, where Johnson used to dominate and has fell off a bit lately but has still been serviceable. He has finished no worse than 14th since 2010 and although he doesn’t have a win at the site he has been very good. His career DR of 110.2 is second best in the series since ’05. As said, this number has dropped lately but not plummeted and his DR is at 97.7 over his last five races at Chicagoland. Johnson should once again return good DFS value at this low of a price.

Low Salary ($6,900 and lower)

Austin Dillon ($6,900)

If Dillon continues to be priced this low I will continue to roster him. His career at Chicagoland is not too bad other than a few outlier DNFs. He has finished 16th or better in the three races other than his DNFs. His DR (74.6) is far superior at Chicagoland than that of the other drivers in this salary range. Dillon should again be able to be counted on for a Top 15-20 finish with some upside.

Cornerstones

The two cornerstones are the two drivers who I think provide the best values this week.

Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin both seemed to be underpriced and provide great DFS value this weekend. I think Truex Jr. will again compete for this win this week and Denny Hamlin should run in the Top 5 for a majority of this race and could also get his first win of the year here.

*Check back after qualifying for the post qualifying report. This will be very important this week as Chicagoland has proven to be an easy place to pass and pick up spots gained points.

5 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

DFS NASCAR Post Qualifying Report: Sonoma

Ethan Thiel 6 years ago

written by Ethan Thiel

The Cup Series is at Sonoma, California this week and qualifying was Saturday afternoon. I’ll take you through some big names and how they fared and what it means for their DFS values going into Sunday’s race. You can see the full pre-qualifying breakdown by following the link here.

My favorite pick for Sunday’s race did not change after Qualifying as Martin Truex Jr. ran a pretty good time and will line up eighth. He should give great value and is still my pick to get the win.

My other huge upside play is Kurt Busch, who has been great at Sonoma and will start 16th Sunday. He started outside the Top 15 both of the past two races here and finished sixth and seventh. His low starting spot does not worry me at all.

The top priced driver this week is Kevin Harvick and he did not run well in qualifying. He will start 23rd. This gives Harvick huge upside as he has shown he can drive his way up from the back. In 2016, Harvick started 25th and finished sixth.

Kyle Larson is starting on the pole for the third consecutive year at Sonoma. Although he has never qualified outside the Top 5, his best finish is 12th in 2016. He could contend but his upside is low and he should not be considered for your lineup.

Chris Buescher qualified 10th and has been pretty good at Sonoma over the past few years. Some people might try to get cute and roster the lesser known names but I think there are better options in his price range.

Included in those options are Alex Bowman and Aric Almirola, who qualified 12th and 15th respectively. These are good starting spots for these two as it shows they have relatively fast cars and they have room for upside.

Austin Dillon should provide good value Sunday. He starts 26th and has never finished worse than 22nd here. Last year he started 27th and finished 16th.

The lowest priced driver I originally gave you was Ryan Preece. He will start 20th and I still like him as a big value pick after his Xfinity road course stats.

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6 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS at Sonoma: Picks and Preview

Emely Sharman 6 years ago

written by Emely Sharman

After the week off for Father’s Day, NASCAR heads to the road course in Sonoma, California. Last year the race was dominated by Martin Truex Jr. as he led over half the laps and finished the win with a Driver Rating of 143.3. Truex and Kevin Harvick have been the two best drivers the last two years here. Let’s see who has the best value in the field for this Sunday.

Track Outlook

This race forces a strategy that not many other tracks have. There are only 90 laps and over half of the races here have been won from drivers starting in the Top 5. There are always a few underpriced outliers who run well at road courses.

Loop Data Stats are from 2005 – present unless otherwise specified.

High Salary (9,000+ on DraftKings)

We have nine drivers to choose from in this range and I think there is great value in the lower portion of this range. We will start from who I like most at the top and work our way down.

Kevin Harvick ($11,200)

Harvick is the top priced driver this week and is looking for his first win of the season. His last two races at the site have netted him an Average Finish of 1.50 after winning in 2017 and finishing second in 2018. His Driver Rating over those two races is a whopping 132.4, best in the series. He won from the 12th spot in 2017, which shows he can make passes at Sonoma. Harvick has the third most Quality Passes, third best Average Running Position, and has ran 67% of his laps in the Top 15. He should definitely be considered for your roster this week but I think there is one guy who should put up more points than Harvick and that is…

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,800)

Although Harvick’s track history is somewhat better, Truex Jr. has looked dominant at times this year. He has three wins to Harvick’s zero and has more Top 5s. Truex Jr. has ran more fast laps at Sonoma than anyone else in the series and has led over 10% of the laps. After leading the most laps in 2017 before engine failure he finished 37th, he led the most again in 2018, this time taking the win. If you are going to be spending up in this race, I think this is the spot to look. Truex Jr. should provide more value than Harvick and should contend for the win again this year.

Kurt Busch ($9,700)

Kurt’s little brother Kyle might be the big name these days but I am looking for Kurt Busch to contend at Sonoma. He has been one of the most consistent drivers at Sonoma. He has the highest Driver Rating and is the only driver over 100, at 107.1. Since the year 2010, Kurt Busch has not finished outside the Top 12 at this site and he also has a win to go with a second, third, fourth, sixth, and seventh. That is the kind of consistency you look for at a place like Sonoma. He is tops in multiple other categories at the site including Average Running Position and laps in the Top 15. Kurt Busch has also shown the ability to race up from the back of the pack. He started in 17th and 23rd, respectively, the past two years only to to finish seventh and sixth. Kurt Busch might end up supplying more value in this race than anyone else.

Clint Bowyer ($9,300)

Bowyer has the highest Average Finishing position of all drivers at Sonoma and finished second and third the past two years there. Other than an electrical problem in 2016, Bowyer has not finished outside the Top 10 since 2010. He has six Top 5s since 2010 as well. His Driver Rating of 92 at the site has only gotten better lately and over his past two starts he has a 101.5. Bowyer has the fourth most Quality Passes with 333. If you do stay away from the ultra high-priced drivers, Bowyer is a great option.

Mid Salary ($8,900 – $7,000)

In this salary range, we see some big name guys who struggle at road courses and some lesser-known names who can thrive at the site.

Jimmie Johnson ($8,300)

Jimmie Johnson does not fit either of those descriptions, and even though he has struggled in past years, his Sonoma experience is an asset. Although Johnson ranks 16th in points this year, Sonoma has been a good track for him. He has an Average Finish of 11, which is fourth best. Johnson also ranks second in Average Running Position, Driver Rating, and laps in the Top 15. He has more Quality Passes in the Cup series at Sonoma than anyone else. You might ask what has he done for me lately and although it isn’t the seven straight Top 10s he put up from ’09 to ’15, he has been steady. The last three years, Johnson has finished no worse than 13th. His Sonoma Driver Ratings have also been above 87 every race over the last three years.

Aric Almirola ($8,000)

Almirola has only competed at Sonoma once since moving to Stewart-Haas Racing but it was a Top 10. He only finished in the Top 15 once before but that was in the 43 car. In 2018, Almirola started 24th and finished eighth. His Driver Rating in that race was 85.0. He was in the Top 10 in both stages.

Alex Bowman ($7,500)

Bowman, like Almirola, only has one race with his current team at Sonoma, but it was a good finish. Bowman finished one spot worse than Almirola in ninth. He also started middle pack, in 17th, and was able to race his way forward. His Driver Rating of 82.7 in that race is very respectable for this salary range.

Low Salary ($6,900 and Lower)

Austin Dillon ($6,800)

Austin Dillon will spend another race in this salary range after his third consecutive disappointing finish. He was running well at Michigan when he hit the wall and finished 26th, his third consecutive finish outside the Top 25. He is a better driver than that and has been pretty good at Sonoma recently. In his five career starts there he has four Top 20s and a 22nd. His career Driver Rating at Sonoma of 67.5, better than most in this range, shows he is underpriced. Dillon should get you some spots gained and a Top 20 finish.

Ryan Preece ($6,100)

This will be Ryan Preece’s first Cup start at Sonoma but looking at his Xfinity numbers from last year I think he could place well. He ran two road courses in that series last year and finished fourth both times. He had a Driver Rating of 118 at Watkins Glen and 105 at the Charlotte Roval. That is enough for me to invest some stock at the near minimum price.

Cornerstones

These are the two drivers that I think provide the best value this week and will be main cogs in my lineups.

Martin Truex Jr. and Kurt Busch should both have great runs this week I think Truex Jr. should get the win and Kurt Busch could easily be right on his tail. These two are in the high salary range and you might need to go with one or the other but you can even the money out by rostering Preece or Dillon.

*A brief update will be provided after qualifying has finished*

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6 years ago 0 comments

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Martin Truex Jr.

Value Increased

Value Decreased

Top NASCAR DFS Plays

Avoid

Wild Card NASCAR DFS (High Risk – High Reward)

Top DFS NASCAR Plays

Avoid

DFS NASCAR Wild Card (High Risk, High Reward)

Outlook

High Salary ($9,000+)

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,900)

Chase Elliott ($9,700)

Kyle Larson ($9,500)

Mid Salary ($8,900 – $7,000)

Denny Hamlin ($8,500)

Ryan Blaney ($8,300)

Aric Almirola ($8,200)

Jimmie Johnson ($8,000)

Low Salary ($6,900 and lower)

Austin Dillon ($6,900)

Cornerstones

Track Outlook

High Salary (9,000+ on DraftKings)

Kevin Harvick ($11,200)

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,800)

Kurt Busch ($9,700)

Clint Bowyer ($9,300)

Mid Salary ($8,900 – $7,000)

Jimmie Johnson ($8,300)

Aric Almirola ($8,000)

Alex Bowman ($7,500)

Low Salary ($6,900 and Lower)

Austin Dillon ($6,800)

Ryan Preece ($6,100)

Cornerstones

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