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Lucas Giolito

Today's edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel's nine-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!The ugliest weather is in St. Louis, and there's a good shot at a delay or postponement there. Some other trouble spots to be aware of as well, but the Cub...

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Clayton Kershaw! Lucas Giolito!

Crickets. Lots of crickets.

The 9/6 DFS Pitching Picks — outside of the two aces — is awful thin, with a handful of maybes, perhaps and goodness no. Four teams are so disjointed that, as of late Thursday night, TBD was listed in their Friday slate. Ouch.

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9/6 DFS Pitching Picks – Cash Game Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw, LAD vs. SF

DK ($11,700), FD ($11,500) 

We all have bad days, and Kershaw sure as heck had one in his last start. After 10 straight starts with at least 30 FanDuel points, Kershaw had just 18 points in a sluggish five-inning stint against the Padres. Not to worry, though: the Giants come to Chavez Ravine, and that’s good news for Kershaw and your wallet.

Kershaw has a 1.29 ERA against the Giants this season, holding them to a .180 batting average. His strikeout rate is less than a batter per inning against them, but he’s at 9.56 K/9 overall this season and is on track for a seventh straight season of less than two walks per nine frames. He’s almost money in the bank considering he’s had just three starts this season with 26 or fewer FanDuel points. It’s also nifty that Kershaw is catching a Giants team hitting a collective .243/.283/.407 over the past week, averaging less than four runs per game. I’m not one to tell grown people what to do with their money and lineups, but…

Lucas Giolito, CWS vs. LAA

DK ($17,700), FD ($10,500) 

Giolito enters tonight bidding for a 10th straight game of at least seven strikeouts. He’s gone exactly six innings in five of those starts, so he’s fanning well over a batter per inning. Post All-Star Break, Giolito has whiffed 90 batters over 63.2 innings, but his 11.55 K/9 overall is probably going to net him no better than third place in the AL Cy Young Award race. I’d be even more enthused if Giolito was pitching on the road, but he’s still making batters miss at a steady clip.

Adding 1.8 mph to your heater can do wonders, as Giolito can attest, having gone from 92.4 mph in 2018 to 94.2 this season. What’s also enhanced his breakout is the huge increase of faith in his change-up, going from 15.9% usage last year to 25.9% currently.

Like Kershaw, Giolito will benefit from facing an Angels team in an extended funk, hitting a composite .219/.312/.373 over the past two weeks. The numbers are worse when the Angels face power pitchers like Giolito, managing a paltry .225/.323/.385 slash. All systems are go if you like Giolito and/or want to go against the grain from those using Kershaw.

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9/6 DFS Pitching Picks – GPP Pitchers

Dinelson Lamet, SD vs. COL

DK ($10,700), FD ($8,200)

The best of a thin crop of arms on the slate of 9/6 DFS Pitching Picks, Lamet is striking out 31.7% of opposing batters and comes off a 10-K effort against the Giants. Lamet struggled after returning from Tommy John surgery, but he’s allowed three runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts along with allowing just three homers in his last seven outings after giving up five in his first three starts. Colorado’s lineup has seen Lamet’s handiwork firsthand, as he struck out seven Rockies over five innings in an August 11 start.

Lamet has put up at least 30 FanDuel points in three of his last four starts, including a season-best 67 at the Mariners on August 6. Because of his high strikeout rate, Padres infielders are busy just 34.1% of the time when Lamet is on the hill. The strikeouts also bolster Lamet’s modest 35.2% hard contact rate and is somewhat nullified by his 72.7% strand rate. Lamet looks even better when looking at the Rockies’ road numbers, especially the 70-point dip in batting average (.303 at home, .233 away) and a .203 free fall in OPS (.885 home, .603 road). Be it ever so humble…

Patrick Corbin, WAS at ATL

DK ($11,100), FD ($11,100)

I’ll give Corbin the slight edge over mound opponent Dallas Keuchel in what will be the series (sorry Yankees-Red Sox) of the weekend. Corbin has five straight starts of at least 40 points on FanDuel, but the only reason he’s not a cash game pitcher is well…the Braves are bit more productive than the Giants or Angels. Corbin is striking out 10.36 batters per nine innings and his 35% hard contact rate — along with a 33.6% fly ball rate — is a big reason why he’s got a 0.98 HR/9 rate.

Corbin is on a Giolito-like strikeout run, fanning at least seven hitters in eight of his last 10 starts despite going more than six innings just twice in that span. The next Atlanta hitter to take him deep this season will be the first, as he’s kept the ball in the yard against them while striking out 13 over 11 innings versus the NL East leaders. The 28.4% K rate is strong, but it’s too much of a risk to go with Corbin in a cash format.

Robby Ray, ARI at CIN

DK ($8,900), FD ($9,100)

He’s been up and down since a solid July and is risky on the road at Great American Ball Park. Ray is averaging 11.78 K/9 but the 4.14 BB/9 could be the match into the gas can with this Reds lineup. Ray is sporting a 1.48 HR/9 rate this season, which kinda falls as average with the way the ball is flying out. A 42.4% hard contact rate falls into the dangerous category in a hitter-friendly park and a host of lumber capable of chasing Ray to an early exit.

Ray put up a modest 27 FanDuel points in his last start, but he’s been as high as 49 points and as low as nine in his past six outings. Somewhere, the truth lies in between, and I’d consider finding where that middle exists if you’re interested in playing more offense rather than paying for Kershaw or Giolito.

9/6 DFS Pitching Picks – Punt Pick

Zach Eflin, PHI at NYM

DK ($12,000), FD ($6,000)

If you believe in the healing powers of the sinker, then Eflin might be worth your attention among the 9/6 DFS Pitching Picks. He’s started using it more over the past two outings, and wouldn’t ya know? Bah Gawd, it works. Eflin has allowed just two runs over 13 innings but with only five strikeouts to show for his efforts, Eflin’s appeal will be limited. However, he’s put up starts of 28 and 31 FanDuel points, numbers that would climb if he missed a few more bats. He’s still not walking many batters (2.47 BB/9) and his 14/5% HR/FB rate is pretty acceptable.

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Unlike Saturday’s slate, the Sunday 8/11 DFS pitching schedule brings good tidings for those who seeking top end pitchers. All three formats are well-stocked with options, including a sleeper or two that has a chance to deliver surprise numbers.

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8/11 DFS Pitching Cash Game Pitchers 

Jacob deGrom, NYM vs. WSH

DK ($11,600)   FD ($11,700) 

deGrom has fattened the wallets of many over his last 15 starts, scoring at least 40 FanDuel points 11 times, with his 49 point effort in his previous start against the Marlins leaving him a point shy of four straight starts with at least 50 points. Obviously, starting deGrom as your SP1 will impact the coin you’ll spend on offense, but when you’re getting 11.45 K/9 with just 2.2 BB/9 while keeping the ball in the yard, you’ll spend it and do so smiling. deGrom sets the pace by hitting first pitch strikes at 66.5% and is still putting up good numbers despite not maintaining the off-the-charts pace he had in 2018.

Most pitchers will take a 4.9 WAR a this point of the season, but that — along with a RAR of 43.3 — is what deGrom carries into this contest. He’s more dominant at home in Citi Field, where deGrom has struck out 84 batters over 68 innings at home with a 3.18 ERA. He’s more unforgiving to the Nationals, holding them to an 0.75 ERA while putting together an 18:4 K/BB rate and a composite .167 allowed against them.

Justin Verlander, HOU at BAL

DK ($12,400)   FD ($12,500) 

Most will consider deGrom the better play, but you can’t fault anyone plugging Verlander as their SP1. JV has four straight starts of at least 58 FanDuel points and faces a Baltimore lineup bereft of quality in its lineup, a huge reason they are 24th in OPS and 25th in wRAA. He’s pushing for a second straight season of striking out at least 35% of opponents, and he’s still a legit Cy Young award candidate despite a rise in hard contact rate (40.8%) and an elevated HR/9 rate (1.68).

deGrom gets the edge because of his track record against the Nationals, but Verlander has won seven of his last eight starts and is on a four-start stretch of at least 10 strikeouts. I think you’ll get another 10-K from Verlander and another win that would give him a sixth straight win.

8/11 DFS GPP Plays

Mike Minor, TEX at MIL

DK ($9,600)   FD ($9,200) 

Minor hit some major turbulence in mid-July but has won his last two starts, including seven shutout innings against the Indians on Monday. One could say that Minor is having a career year, as his 31.3 RAR has already eclipsed the 29.6 RAR he recorded as a member of the Braves in 2012. He’s been inconsistent when it comes to FanDuel reduction, as his 28.95 FD points were his best output since scoring 34.55 FD against the Tigers on June 26.

The Brewers are hitting a combined .252/.312/.403 this month and are paying dearly for their all or nothing at all mindset, striking out 85 times in eight games. There is good potential for Minor to be able to exploit Milwaukee’s loss of Christian Yelich, who remains sidelined with back woes.

Lucas Giolito, CWS vs. OAK

DK ($10,600)   FD ($9.800)

Giolito has at least 43 FanDuel points in three of his last four starts and has shaken off the 9 points he produced at FD against the Cubs on July 6. He’s approaching 11 strikeouts per nine innings (10.86 K/9 to date). Giolito has continued to keep opposing batters from making max impact against him (30.9% hard contact rate) and has avoided the long ball despite a 41.1% fly ball rate.

This shapes to a good matchup for Giolito, as the Athletics have seen their bats go .233/.340/.454 over the past week. Oakland’s longball or bust mentality will work agains them considering Giolito allows opposing bats to hit just .203 against him at home this season while he’s delivered 70 strikeouts over 59.1 innings. What keeps Giolito from being a cash pitcher is the uncertainty that the A’s bats get dialed in early and catch Giolito off-balance.

8/11 DFS Punt Plays

Jakob Junis, KC at DET

DK ($7,900)   FD ($8,600) 

Junis comes off a 37 FanDuel point outing against the Red Sox and already has starts of 37 and 34 points against the Tigers this season. There is sneaky good strikeout potential in Junis, who averages 8.46 K/9 to go along with a slightly above league average 3.12 BB/9. The Tigers’ lineup won’t be able to fully exploit Junis’ weakness (his 1.56 HR/9 rate), this despite the fact the Royals hurler sports a 42.4% hard contact rate.

There’s a chance the Tigers might get one off him, but I think Junis is capable of setting the pace early with strikeouts before getting the Detroit bats to induce ground balls as a steady clip. This is a good pairing if you’re looking to go with deGrom or Verlander in a cash league or even Giolito in a PPS format.

Monkey Knife Fight Pitching Props

For my debut in MKF, I’ll go Astros-Orioles and take the shot on Asher Wojciehowski lasting long enough to get the over on strikeouts before Houston’s lineup sends him to an early exit.

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This is a day where paying up for pitcher is a necessity for me. The low priced options in 8/5 MLB DFS Pitching are ugly and the mid tier guys aren’t much better. I see two studs at the top I LOVE and I dug out one low option, as well as one mid-ranger in case we’re feeling froggy.

8/5 MLB DFS Pitching Stud: Lucas Giolito @ Detroit Tigers

DraftKings – $11,000, FanDuel- $9,800

Giolito returned to form last time out against the New York Mets, going seven innings and striking out nine batters. This turn he gets the putrid Detroit Tigers, who traded away their best hitter at the deadline. On the road this season is where Giolito shines even more. He holds a 2.76 ERA and an 11.02 K/9. There is not one player on the Tigers that worries me so I will lock in Giolito in all formats in 8/5 MLB DFS Pitching.

8/5 MLB DFS Pitching Mid_Ranger: Jeff Samardzija vs Washington Nationals

DraftKings – $8,700, FanDuel – $8,600

I never once thought I would say his name this season, but here we are. The Shark has been pretty solid fantasy wise this season and we get a huge park boost playing in San Francisco. At home he holds a 3.67 ERA and a 8.17 K/9. This will be one of my GPP mid-tier guys here as he has eclipsed or been near 25 points 5 times this season.

8/5 MLB DFS Pitching Stud 2: Charlie Morton vs Toronto Blue Jays

DraftKings – $10,700, FanDuel – $10,100

The Blue Jays are exciting to watch, they have a ton of young talent coming up and they are explosive. That being said, they are still young and inexperienced. Charlie Morton is a vet that knows how to slice and dice the opposing batters. This season at home Morton owns a 2.77 ERA and a staggering 12.55 K/9. The Blue Jays are young and it shows. They strike out a ton and I don’t see why Morton can’t be the highest scoring pitcher.

8/5 MLB DFS Pitching Value Play: Spencer Turnbull vs Chicago White Sox

DraftKings – $7,000, FanDuel – $6,600

Fresh off the IL we get Turnbull heading to Chicago to play the White Sox. Over the weekend we saw the White Sox strike out 38 times. Turnbull has the ability to rack up the strikeouts and that’s what I expect here. Against right handed bats he has a 9.48 K/9 and a 52.3% ground ball rate. I expect a ton of strikeouts and ground balls to go with the numbers. I love Turnbull as a punt for cash and a cheap GPP option with upside.

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Scott Engel and our resident pro wrestler and DFS expert discuss the Main MLB DFS Slates and provide DFS picks for the Hall of Fame Game. There are a few early games and a six-game night set in MLB to cover on the 8/1 DFS Podcast. The Broncos and Falcons will have us sifting through backups to determine who gets the most playing time.

8/1 DFS Podcast Pitching Picks

Michael Pineda is performing well and gets the reward of a trip to Miami. Zach Wheeler is still a Met and has a good matchup in Chicago. Max Fried could be a nice salary saver tonight so you can roster Gerrit Cole and/or save some salary for hitting.

NFL Hall of Fame Game DFS Picks

Scott and Matt provide a positional review and recommendations for DFS Play in the Hall of Fame Game. Scott may build around Kevin Hogan while Matt points out that a TE play could be important.

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Scott Engel and our resident pro wrestler and DFS expert discuss the Main MLB DFS Slate on the 7/25 MLB DFS Podcast. There are early games, but there is not much to choose from, so Matt says do not be intimidated into playing. But pitching is not easy to come by on the night schedule.

7/25 MLB DFS Podcast Pitching Picks

Jose Berrios and Lucas Gioloto face off in the pitching matchup of the night, and they are really the only two guys on the slate who seem to be true quality choices. But Matt has a good salary saver for you. Plus, Angels and Athletics bats are in play tonight.

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Thank you for listening to the 7/25 MLB DFS Podcast. Follow Win Daily Sports on twitter @WinDailyDFS. Please check out everything that Win Daily Sports has to offer by becoming a premium member. New articles, projection models and data are being added frequently. We can’t say enough about our private Win Daily Slack Channel as it provides one on one coaching for all sports and all platforms. There are channels set up for MLB, PGA, NASCAR, WNBA, CFL, NBA, and NFL. We also have a channel dedicated to sports betting and one dedicated to Monkey Knife Fight where we provide winners to cash in on daily. We have a special promo for a limited time only to sign up for a full 12 months at only $199.99 or a monthly plan at $19.99 which are both 50% off our regular price.

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It is a shorter slate tonight and not a lot of names that stand out among 7/25 MLB DFS Pitching Picks. But here are three that certainly stand out among some mediocrity.

Jose Berrios @ Chicago White Sox

DraftKings – $10,600, FanDuel – $9,300

The White Sox have been horrible this week and as recently as last night they just got shut out by Zac Gallen and company. Jose Berrios has been a pitcher who thrives at Target Field and struggles everywhere else. I’ll take his immense talent and ignore what I just said. On the road this season Berrios holds a 7.58 K/9 and a 41% ground ball rate. With the White Sox completely struggling to make contact I think Berrios has the most upside on the 7/25 MLB DFS Pitching slate by far. An all format lock for me.

Lucas Giolito vs Minnesota Twins

DraftKings – $10,900, FanDuel – $9,100

This will be my 7/25 MLB DFS Pitching pivot suggestion off of Berrios. Giolito is not a main option for me because the Twins ability to pop off at any moment is up there with the best teams in the league. The thing that intrigues me with Giolito is how good he is against left handed bats. He holds a .176 BAA and a 10.13 K/9 with a .232 wOBA. The Twins are very dangerous, but Giolito has shown his upside this year and is finally looking like the prospect we all believed in.

Adam Plutko @ Kansas City Royals

DraftKings – $6,000, FanDuel – $7,100

Plutko is not a good pitcher by any means, but he did just face these Royals and completely shut them down. He only gave up two hits with one earned run and unfortunately took a loss. The Royals are scuffling hard and I don’t see why Plutko can’t toss a repeat performance. His strikeout numbers aren’t great, but against right handed bats he has 7.13 K/9 and for a 7/25 MLB DFS Pitching cheap for my SP2 I’ll take a handful of strikeouts. His numbers aren’t anything to get excited about, but this is just a pure target of the Royals.

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This report will provide recommended DFS stacks for today’s 10-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

**All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer we get to the postseason.

Cleveland Indians Stack

vs. LHP Daniel Norris (DET): 6.30 Runs

Daniel Norris takes the mound in Cleveland this evening. He carries a 4.96 ERA, 4.62 FIP, and 4.71 ERA into tonight’s matchup. We get a nice little recipe here with his reverse splits. Left handed batters are slashing to a .367 wOBA, .540 SLG, and .343 OBP across 16 innings pitched. He has allowed 13 runs in that short span. His 40% hard contact rate and 40% pull rate combined with his shakiness to lefties can make for some easy liners to right field. Norris racked up eight strikeouts but gave up six earned runs in his last meeting with Cleveland. Cleveland batters are hitting below their season averages this month, slashing to a .309 wOBA, .154 ISO, and 88 WRC+. These numbers aren’t typically what we look for but they’re in the worst part of their slump and this is a good opportunity to bust out of it.

Preferred Stack: Roberto Perez ($2700 FD|$4100 DK), Jordan Luplow ($2500 FD|$3900 DK), Carlos Santana ($3800 FD|$5000 DK), and Francisco Lindor ($4000 FD|$4900 DK).

Colorado Rockies Stack

vs. RHP Derek Rodriguez (SFG):

Dereck Rodriguez was called up from AAA as the 26th man ahead of today’s doubleheader. He carries a 5.27 ERA, 5.57 FIP, and 5.46 SIERA across 57 innings pitched into tonight’s game. He has struggled both to righties and lefties, allowing a .338 wOBA, .462 SLG, and 46% hard contact rate. The Rockies batting averages are creeping up again on this home stand and should continue to rise this evening. They are slashing to a .349 wOBA, .193 ISO, and .457 SLG against right handed pitching recently and the studs in this lineup are coming off a rest day.

Preferred Stack:Charlie Blackmon ($4800 FD|$5700 DK), Daniel Murphy ($4100 FD|$5200 DK), David Dahl ($4200 FD|$5500 DK), Trevor Story ($4600 FD|$5600 DK), and Nolan Arenado ($4700 FD|$5400 DK).

Every stack report in the industry is going to have the Giants and Rockies. Ownership almost always levitates to Coors, especially when you have Dereck Rodriguez (SFG) and Chi Chi Gonzalez (COL) pitching. Going to be a lot of ownership on both sides here ,so I am not writing up the Giants in detail for that purpose, but I’ve included my preferred stack if you decide to go with the masses tonight.

Preferred Stack: Alex Dickerson ($3800 FD|$4800 DK), Stephen Vogt ($2700 FD|$4300 DK), Evan Longoria ($3500 FD|$5300 DK), Pablo Sandoval ($2900 FD|$4900 DK), Brandon Crawford ($3000 FD|$3900 DK), and Austin Slater ($3600 FD|$5000 DK).

Los Angeles Dodgers Stack

vs. RHP Zach Eflin (PHI): 5.40 Runs

I imagine ownership here will be higher as well. It’s not very often we get the Dodgers so early in the evening. Zach Eflin carries a 3.78 ERA, 4.66 FIP, and 4.70 SIERA into tonight’s matchup. Left handed batters are slashing to a .357 wOBA, .544 SLG, and .333 OBP. He has allowed 22 earned runs and 11 home runs across 43 innings pitched to lefties as well. The only concern I really have with Dodgers batters here is a possible hangover from last night’s game. The Dodgers are slashing .to a 335 wOBA, .209 ISO, and 109 WRC+ vs. right handed pitching over the last month.

Preferred Stack:Max Muncy ($3800 FD|$4600 DK), Alex Verdugo ($3100 FD|$4100 DK), Cody Bellinger ($4800 FD|$5100 DK), and Joc Pederson ($2600 FD|$4200 DK).

Boston Red Sox Stack

vs. RHP Trent Thornton (TOR): 6.25 Runs

The Red Sox get another cupcake matchup against Thornton. They have faced him twice this season, his first outing in Boston when he allowed only two earned runs and a recent second outing in Toronto in which he allowed seven earned runs. This Red Sox team is hitting very well recently. They are slashing .372 wOBA, .254 ISO, and 129 WRC+. I have the same concern with the Red Sox as with the Dodgers. They played late last night but they do get the benefit at being at home. Trent Thornton has a 4.85 ERA, 4.41 FIP, and 4.75 ERA on the year. He has identical splits, allowing batters to slash to a .332 wOBA, .321 BABIP, and .444 SLG.

Preferred Stack: Rafael Devers ($4100 FD|$5500 DK), Xander Bogaerts ($4400 FD|$5300 DK), Mookie Betts ($4200 FD|$4800 DK), and Christian Vazquez ($2900 FD|$4700 DK).

Honorable Mention

Houston Astros vs. RHP Griffin Canning (LAA): 4.90 Runs

Preferred Stack: Alex Bregman ($4200 FD|$4400 DK), Yordan Alvarez ($4300 FD|$4800 DK), Michael Brantley ($3900 FD|$4000 DK), and Yuli Gurriel ($3800 FD|$4200 DK).

Toronto Blue Jays vs. RHP Rick Porcello (BOS): 4.25 Runs

Preferred Stack: Freddy Galvis ($3200 FD|$4300 DK), Cavan Biggio ($3700 FD|$4500 DK), Eric Sogard ($3300 FD|$4700 DK), and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($3800 FD|$5300 DK).

Pitching

  1. RHP Adam Plutko vs. DET: 4.20 Runs
  2. RHP Lucas Giolito vs. KCR: 4.40 Runs
  3. LHP James Paxton vs. TAM: 4.00 Runs

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Good afternoon everyone! For those not familiar, my name is Dan Wehr and I am a new author here at WinDailyDFS. This article will cover a game by game breakdown for the seven game main slate on Draftkings and Fanduel.

Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees

Over/Under: 10.5

Implied Run Total – TOR: 3.91 Runs

Implied Run Total – NYY: 6.63 Runs

Weather Concerns – N/A

Toronto Blue JaysAaron Sanchez (RHP) on the mound tonight for the Jays in New York. He is carrying a 5.49 ERA, 5.50 FIP, and 5.43 SIERA on the season. He has identical splits, allowing .354 wOBA, .380 OBP, and .445 SLG on the season. Toronto hitters are slashing .346 wOBA .213 ISO, and 119 WRC+ to left handed pitchers over the last two weeks.

Preferred Plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, Eric Sogard, Vlad Guerro Jr., and Randal Grichuk.

New York YankeesCC Sabathia (LHP) on the mound tonight for the Yankees at home. He is carrying a 4.14 ERA, 5.66 FIP, and 4.29 SIERA on the season. Sabathia has true splits, allowing .379 wOBA, .561 SLG, and .352 OBP against right handed batters. He is also allowing 2.14 HR/9. New York hitters are slashing .380 wOBA, .232 ISO, .366 BABIP, and 138 WRC+ to right handed pitching over the last two weeks, well above their season average.

Preferred Plays: Luke Voit, Gary Sanchez, Edwin Encarnacion, DJ Lemahieu, and Gleyber Torres.

New York Mets @ Philidelphia Phillies

Over/Under: 10

Implied Run Total – NYM: 4.76 Runs

Implied Run Total – PHI: 5.26 Runs

Weather Concerns – Possible late game shower

New York Mets Steven Matz (LHP) on the mound tonight for the Mets in Philly. Matz is carrying a 4.28 ERA, 5.00 FIP, and 4.37 SIERA on the sesason. Matz has reverse splits, allowing .401 wOBA, .563 SLG, and .397 OBP to left handed batters. He is also allowing 40% hard contact and 1.83 HR/9. Mets batters are slashing .306 wOBA, .182 ISO, .262 BABIP, and .419 SLG. They are hitting close to their season average over their last two weeks.

Preferred Plays: Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, and Robinson Cano.

Philadelphia PhilliesZach Eflin (RHP) is on the mound at home tonight. He is sporting a 2.83 ERA, 4.02 FIP, and 4.51 SIERA. Eflin is allowing only .221 BABIP on the season. Philly batters are slashing .332 wOBA, .155 ISO, .300 BABIP, and .412 SLG against left handed pitching over the last few weeks, close to their season averages.

Preferred Plays: Zach Eflin, Scott Kingery, Jay Bruce, Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper, and JT Realmuto.

Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians

Over/Under: 10

Implied Run Total – KCR: 4.34 Runs

Implied Run Total – CLE: 5.72 Runs

Weather Concerns – Possible PPD. 55% Precip. 7pm-10pm (EST)

Kansas City RoyalsBrad Keller (RHP) on the mound for the Royals in Cleveland. He carries a 4.45 ERA, 4.35 FIP, and 5.41 SIERA on the season. Keller has identical splits, allowing .311 wOBA, .343 OBP, and .367 SLG. He has a low HC% and FB% all while only allowing .56 HR/9 this season. Royals batters are slashing .275 wOBA, .115 ISO, and .271 BABIP to right handed pitchers over the last few weeks. They are hitting well below their season averages.

Preferred Plays: Brad Keller

Cleveland IndiansAdam Plutko (RHP) takes the mound at home. He carries a 4.55 ERA, 6.25 FIP, and 4.69 SIERA on the season. Plutko is allowing .391 wOBA, .655 SLG, and .305 OBP on the year. He is also allowing 2.93 HR/9. Despite the inflated numbers, Plutko does offer strike out upside. Indians batters are slashing .341 wOBA, .212 ISO, and .327 BABIP over the last few weeks. They are hitting above their season averages.

Preferred Plays: Adam Plutko, Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Oscar Mercado, Jose Ramirez, and Francisco Lindor.

Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox

Over/Under: 9

Implied Run Total – CHW: 3.88

Implied Run Total – BOS: 5.14

Weather Concerns – N/A

Chicago White Sox Lucas Giolito (RHP) is on the mound in Boston tonight. He is sporting a 2.74 ERA, 3.09 FIP, and 3.62 SIERA on the season. Giolito has excellent splits, allowing .252 wOBA, .267 OBP, and .304 SLG to both hands this season. White Sox batters are slashing .353 wOBA, .192 ISO, and 124 WRC+ over the last two weeks, well above their season avearges.

Preferred Plays: Luery Garcia, Jose Abreu, James McCann, and Eloy Jimenez.

Boston Red SoxEduardo Rodriguez (LHP) is on the mound at home this evening. He is carrying a 4.71 ERA, 4.00, and 3.98 SIERA on the season. Rodriguez is a reverse splits pitcher, allowing .392 wOBA, .610 SLG, and 7 home runs through 18 innings pitched against left handed batters. Red Sox batters are slashing .392 wOBA, .243 ISO, and 139 WRC+ to right handed pitching over the last two weeks. The Red Sox are hitting well above their season averages.

Preferred Plays: Christian Vasquez, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, and Jackie Bradley Jr..

Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs

Over/Under: 11.5

Implied Run Total – ATL: 5.45

Implied Run Total – CHC: 6.12

Weather Concerns – N/A

Atlanta Braves Julio Teheran (RHP) takes the mound at Wrigley this evening. He is sporting a 3.40 ERA, 4.36 FIP, and 5.10 SIERA on the season. Teheran has identical splits, carrying .288 wOBA .311 OBP, and .347 SLG to both hands. I consider Teheran a viable pitching option in GPP’s. Braves hitters are slashing a massive .426 wOBA, .271 ISO, .386 BABIP, and 161 WRC+ over the last two weeks. To put it simply, they are on absolute fire.

Preferred Plays: Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, and Ronald Acuna Jr..

Chicago CubsJon Lester (LHP) is on the mound at home tonight. He carries a 4.13 ERA, 4.47 FIP, and 4.16 SIERA on the season. Lester has identical splits, allowing .390 wOBA, .329 OBP, and .464 SLG to both hands. He is also allowing 81% contact on his pitches, 41% of that being hard contact. Cubs batters are slashing ,291 wOBA, .163 ISO, .253 BABIP, and 78 WRC+ over the last two weeks. They are hitting well below their season averages.

Preferred Plays: Kyle Schwarber, Wilson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, and Jason Heyward.

LA Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Over/Under: 8

Implied Run Total – LAD: 4.25 Runs

Implied Run Total – ARI: 3.75 Runs

Weather Concerns – Dome

Los Angeles DodgersClayton Kershaw (LHP) takes the mound in Arizona tonight. He is sporting a 2.85 ERA, 3.51 FIP, and 3.76 SIERA on the season. Kershaw has identical splits, carrying .282 wOBA, .269 OBP, and .278 BABIP to both hands. Dodgers batters are slashing .338 wOBA, .209 ISO, and .298 BABIP over the last two weeks. They are hitting close to their season averages.

Preferred Plays: Clayton Kershaw, Max Muncy, Joc Pederson, and Cody Bellinger.

Arizona DiamondbacksZack Greinke (RHP) takes the mound at home tonight. He is sporting a 2.91 ERA, 3.45 FIP, and 3.96 SIERA on the season. Greinke has identical splits, allowing .260 wOBA, .249 OBP, and .252 BABIP to both hands. Arizona batters are slashing .339 wOBA, .218 ISO, and .306 BABIP over the last two weeks, They are hitting above their season averages.

Preferred Plays: Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar, Ildemaro Vargas, and Carson Kelly.

Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants

Over/Under: 7.5

Implied Run Total – COL: 3.75

Implied Run total – SFG: 3.75

Weather Concerns – N/A

Colorado RockiesJon Gray (RHP) takes the mound tonight in San Francisco. He carries a 4.18 ERA, 4.20 FIP, and 4.19 SIERA on the year. Gray has identical splits, carrying a .338 wOBA, .339 OBP, and .439 SLG to both hands. Rockies batters are slashing a slate high .427 wOBA, .220 ISO, .438 BABIP, and 138 WRC+ over the last two weeks. They are hitting well above their season averages.

Preferred Plays: Jon Gray, Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, David Dahl, and Nolan Arenado.

San Francisco GiantsDrew Pomeranz (LHP) is on the mound at home. He carries a 7.09 ERA, 6.01 FIP, and 4.68 SIERA on the year. Pomeranz has true splits as right handed batters are slashing .412 wOBA, .594 SLG, and .396 OBP against him this season. San Francisco batters are slashing .334 wOBA, .182 ISO, and .321 BABIP recently. They are hitting close to their season averages.

Preferred Plays: Brandon Belt and Alex Dickerson

Dwehrj08’s favorite plays

Top Pitchers:

  • Clayton Kershaw
  • Jon Gray
  • Julio Teheran

Top Stacks:

  • Atlanta Braves
  • New York Yankees
  • Toronto Blue Jays

Home Run Call: Austin Riley (ATL)

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