Welcome to the Super Bowl edition of PrizePicks Picks and Props. In this article we’ll be highlighting some of my favorite props that PrizePicks is giving us.
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We’ve made it folks. After a long, grueling season we’ve finally made it to the Super Bowl. We have 2 dynamic offenses going this weekend some of the top players in the league. It should be a game for the ages!
Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.
Joe Burrow – 270.5 Passing Yards
The kid from LSU just continues to win. So far in the playoffs he’s beaten Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Tannehill, and Derek Carr. Can he make it 4 for 4 and beat Matthew Stafford? If the Bengals have any hope of winning this weekend, it’s going to be on the back, well arm of Joe Burrow. He’s willed the team to victory in more than a handful of games and I think he does it again this weekend.
The Rams, while having a solid secondary, have shown some susceptibility in the playoffs as they gave up over 300 yards to Tom Brady. Burrow has a ton of weapons to throw to and he’ll use them heavily on Sunday night. He’s “balled out” when the Bengals have needed him the most, and they’ll need him Sunday night. I’m siding with the over on the 270.5 passing yards that PrizePicks is giving us.
Matthew Stafford – 278.5 Passing Yards
On the other side of the ball we’ll have a QB in Stafford that will hopefully have two cities rooting for him in Los Angeles and Detroit. Childhood friend and teammate Clayton Kershaw already has a World Series ring. Does Stafford add a Super Bowl ring to the Highland Park High School trophy case? Like the Rams, the Bengals have also given some big numbers in the playoffs.
Derek Carr threw for over 300 in the Wild Card Game and then Mahomes threw for 275 in the Conference Championship. While a tough D, they can give up some yards in a hurry and like Burrow, Stafford has a plethora of weapons. His two main targets are two of the best in the league in Kupp and Beckham. We also can’t forget about Jefferson. I’m going with the over on the number that PrizePicks has set for us.
Joe Mixon – 60.5 Rushing Yards
I love Mixon, I really do. He’s a phenomenal back with tremendous upside. That said, I think he falls just short of his number this week. If the Bengals win this one, it’s going to be through the air and not on the ground. Burrow is at his best when he’s slinging the ball around to guys like Chase, Higgins, and Boyd. Mixon has been a huge reason why the Bengals have gotten to this point, I just don’t think he’ll get the run in this one. He falls just short of the 60.5 rushing yards from PrizePicks.
Ja’Marr Chase – 77.5 Receiving Yards
Big game player in his what is his biggest game to date in the NFL. Yes, Jalen Ramsey has already been very vocal about flanking Chase all game. It’s going to be a tough game for Chase and Chase did have a down game against the Chiefs in the conference championship. That said, I just don’t see a scenario where it happens 2 weeks in a row, especially in a game this big.
Some players are born for moments like this one. Chase is that type of player. Since Week 16 vs. the Ravens, Chase has had 4 games over 100 yards receiving. This week it will be 5 games and Chase battles Burrow for Super Bowl MVP. I’m going with the over on this one.
Cooper Kupp – 105.5 Yards
What else is there to say at this point about Cooper Kupp? Including the playoffs, he has just 4 games under 100 receiving yards since week 6. He’s had just an unreal year and he’ll be needed if the Rams have hopes of holding off the feel good Bengals. Kupp, regardless of who’s covering him, continues to find open spaces deep and Stafford always finds a way to find him when he is. Sunday night should be no exceptions. Look for Kupp to have yet another 100 yard game and smash the PrizePicks target.
One other pick and you won’t find this one on PrizePicks. My bet for first song during the halftime show will be Lose Yourself.
Good luck and hope to see some green bars come Sunday night!
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The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the first Week 14 NFL DFS contests!
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
This contest sports one of the lower projected game totals of the Week 14 slate, with the Rams the betting favorite at -240 and 24.75 projected points.
The chalk is leaning toward Jared Goff and away from Cam Newton, who is questionable with an abdomen injury that he played through last week en route to a 45-0 drubbing of the Chargers. His practice snaps have been capped in consecutive weeks because of the injury, but he’s fully expected to play on Thursday night.
Both teams are expected to lean more heavily on their running games this week as both pass defenses have been stifling over the past few weeks. The Rams DST is certainly an option for builds, but the opportunistic Patriots DST strikes me as a possible contrarian play up top, as we’ve seen the Rams QB get a little kooky and turn the ball over in the past.
Top corners from both teams (Stephen Gilmore for the Pats and Jalen Ramsey for the Rams) could impact the effectiveness of the opposing passing game, but Ramsey is unlikely to match up exclusively against one of the Pats WRs – since they don’t have a true No. 1. Gilmore will likely be on Robert Woods, since Cooper Kupp lines up in the slot quite a bit. Ownership will end up being pretty close for these two, with a slight recency bias going to Woods (double-digit target consistency over the past three games) – so Kupp might end up being the better value.
Playing both Kupp and Woods together with Goff doesn’t seem like a viable option, though I wouldn’t scold you for crafting one 1/10 GPP lineups that way. For the Pats, I’m most interested in Jakobi Meyers because of his PPR strengths, though he’s made just 15 catches over the past four games since his 12-reception party against the Jets. But the price on Damiere Byrd is obnoxiously low for some reason, and he’ll be in a few of my builds for sure.
As for the running game, we’ve got healthy committees for both teams that complicate the touch distribution, with Cam Akers heading the Rams backfield and Damien Harris leading the charge for the Patriots pounding style. Sophomore talent Darrell Henderson, Jr. is a sneaky play if you’re fading Akers, and there’s always the possibility that capable veteran Malcom Brown gets a few goal line carries and in crunch time. Brown is super cheap on DK and could be worth using in the CPT role if you want to stack the high-upside position players.
The Patriots usually just play the hot hand at RB, but Harris should begin s the early down pounder while James White fills in on third down and obvious passing situations. Sony Michel is finally healthy, so Bill Belichick could throw a monkey wrench into the mix by tapping him for a few additional carries or giving him a lead role if Harris fumbles. Coach is not a big fan of fumbles.
Tight ends won’t likely play a big role between the 20s, but we could see either Rams TE notch some red zone targets and sneak in for a TD. But both Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett would be final lineup construction pieces for me rather than core builds.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.
DON’T: Feel confined to a classic narrative this week. Kickers and DSTs are again in play with some of the true defensive playmakers on these teams and both QBs are turnover prone.
DO: Make Damien Harris a big part of your builds. It could blow up if the Rams really make a point of stopping him, but I don’t see Belichick getting away from what has worked for them.
DON’T: Expect a high-scoring game. Both coaches have engineered these teams to win battles, but neither is especially interested in getting into a shootout.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 11 NFL DFS contests!
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
While there are viable showdown builds that feature Bucs WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, Tom Brady will be the chalk at captain on Monday night, largely because he spreads the ball around quite a bit. Evans was targeted a season-high 11 times last week, while Godwin has yet to receive fewer than six targets in any game he’s suited up for this season. Embattled egomaniac and HOA member Antonio Brown was targeted eight times last week in his second game with the team, so he’s another WR who could make an impact.
The Rams DST could be the best contrarian punt option to directly challenge the “Tom Brady smashes in typical fashion” narrative, since we’ve seen a disruptive Aaron Donald and this unit post double-digit DK point totals in four of the last six games.
Jared Goff is certainly an option as well, but the three-headed Rams rushing attack presents a difficult situation to parse for fantasy purposes. Goal line work that typically goes to a healthy Darrell Henderson, Jr. was handled by Malcolm Brown (two rushing TDs on six carries) in Week 10, and Cam Akers finally saw some work between the 20s with 10 carries and a modest 38 rushing yards. The Bucs stingy run defense also complicates the deployment of Rams RBs – but it also helps to reduce their ownership, so picking the right one (just like picking the right Bucs pass-catcher) could be the key to smashing the slate.
On the Bucs side, we’ve got two explosive RBs, with Ronald Jones II the clear RB1 and Leonard Fournette acting as a change-of-pace runner and an elevated role in passing down work. It doesn’t matter which back you use – you could even use both – but whatever back you choose should reflect the obvious correlation plays for both teams.
As for the other Rams position players, I usually lean more heavily toward Robert Woods for his possession attributes and larger snap share, but Cooper Kupp and his elevated price could make him the preferred option in GPPs this week. I’m also interested in Tyler Higbee, as frequently targeting the Rams TE it could be a way for Goff to neutralize the pass rush.
And speaking of TEs, the Bucs have two good ones in Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate, both of whom receive red zone targets and make for more affordable options.
It’s a week where an expertly constructed single-entry lineup could see tons of success, but multiple entries are the way to go if you’re hell-bent on coming close to finding the golden ratio of showdown perfection and taking down a huge GPP.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Be afraid to get a little different with your builds. Tom Brady will be massive chalk on FD, and last night’s winning lineup didn’t have Patrick Mahomes (90% owned) or Tyreek Hill (21.5 FD points), even though both had solid games.
DO: Follow a narrative that makes sense. If you’re committed to a rare Brady bust, feel free to get the Rams DST in there.
DON’T: Forget about Bucs kicker Ryan Succop – who’s had double digit totals in four of his last six games.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
It’s time for our Week 13 DFS recommendations for the Sunday main slate, focusing on tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs) that will help you win big!
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FD($7,100) DK ($7,200)
Weather is playing a key role in a few games this week, with cold rain being the main culprit. It’s going to be about 35 degrees in KC with no precipitation in the forecast, so I’m perfectly fine rolling with Kelce and his 8-10 targets as my main cash gameplay. He’s coming off his best game since Week 2.
FD($6,100) DK ($5,500)
Waller is cheaper than Kelce and doesn’t have quite the flooror upside, but he’s still worth a look in all formats if you need the savingsat TE. It’s frustrating to see Waller without much red-zone volume and justthree TDs on the season, but he should be more involved against the Chiefs inWeek 13.
FD($7,000) DK ($6,100)
Kittle isn’t listed on the injury report but is reportedly dealing with a bone chip in his ankle – which could make him a little uncomfortable moving forward. But he returned from a two-game absence with a huge Week 12 (6-129-1 against the Packers). Sunday’s road matchup with the Ravens is a tougher draw and the weather in Baltimore projects to be a cold rain. He’s a GPP play only this week but still has an upside.
FD($6,600) DK ($5,800)
Henry is coming off a Week 12 bye and should have his usualshare of looks (54 targets in seven games this season) against the Broncos inMile High. He’s averaging an excellent 70 receiving yards per game, making himone of the more reliable tight ends in fantasy and a solid GPP play in Week 13.
FD($6,500) DK ($5,700)
Andrews is in the sameboat as Kittle this week with regard to the game conditions and the difficultmatchup, but he’s a little bit cheaper. He’s a talented player and way too goodto fade completely, but my shares will be slightly diminished this week andthere are a few guys I like better.
FD($6,900) DK ($6,700)
Ertz (hamstring) was a limited participant in Friday’spractice and could always miss this game, but the Eagles are optimistic he’llplay. Goedert would see a huge increase in snaps and volume if Ertz is inactiveagainst Miami, but Ertz is worth rolling out in some GPPs if he’s good to go.
FD($5,200) DK ($4,100)
Goedert could be an even better option if Zach Ertz misses,but he’s a fine enough play even with the Eagles No. 1 TE available. You’regetting a huge discount on both sites, however, if Ertz is inactive – so he’sbound to get chalky in GPPs and could make a fine enough cash play.
FD($5,600) DK ($4,200)
Griffin isn’t a lock-and-load value play anymore, but he’ stillGPP-viable and gets a great matchup against the Bengals. He’s now up to28-282-5 on the season, with most of that production coming after his Week 6breakout against the Cowboys.
FD($5,100) DK ($4,400)
Olsen is easy to forget in this week’s list of availableTEs in the main slate, but he’s up to 68 targets this season and has now hauledin at least five passes in three straight games. In Week 13 he faces a Redskinsdefense that’s allowed the eighth-most passing touchdowns this season – so he’sworth considering for GPPs.
FD($5,000) DK ($3,400)
Gesickibroke through with his first TD of 2019 in Week 12 and should get a handful oftargets this week against the Eagles. He’s still pretty cheap on both sites.
FD($5,500) DK ($2,500)
Higbee will be Jared Goff’s main TE on Sunday with GeraldEverett out for Week 13. He saw six targets last week against the Ravens and hasnow played 70 percent of the Rams’ offensive snaps the past two weeks – a ratethat should increase in Arizona.
JimmyGraham, GB at NYG (FD $5,800, DK $3,800) – GPP
JonnuSmith, TEN vs. JAC (FD $5,300, DK $3,300) – GPP (If Walker sits)
NoahFant, DEN vs. LAC (FD $5,100, DK $3,700) – GPP
TylerEifert, CIN vs. NYJ (FD $4,700, DK $2,800) – GPP
FD($3,700) DK ($3,500)
The Steelers DST pricing is all messed up on FD, so they’re the easy pick for top DST on that site this week, even against a team that gave them fits (and hits!) a couple of weeks ago. I might look elsewhere in DK, but the discount is just too significant on FD to pass up.
FD($5,000) DK ($3,600)
The Eagles are usually GPP-only but are decent cash gameplay this week facing the Dolphins, especially considering how well they did against the dangerous Seahawks last week. They’re expensive on FD but you get a discount on DK.
FD($4,900) DK ($3,700)
Jets fans know that you should never get too comfortable with theJets defense, and that heartache is just around the corner. While I’d love toinclude this unit in my cash game recommendations, it’s just too risky.
FD($4,700) DK ($3,800)
The Panthers defense has its problems, so they’renot really viable in cash games – but this is a fine enough matchup for GPPsand the Redskins offense is an excellent one to pick on.
FD($4,600) DK ($3,600)
This game could get interesting.Cold rains are an awful weather component for football, and Daniel Jones hasbeen known to fumble. The Packers are a sneaky good play this week against theGiants, though their struggles against the run should limit your ownership toGPPs.
FD($4,400) DK ($3,300)
The Jags make an excellent play this week at home vs. the Bucs – ateam that turns the ball over frequently and doesn’t have a very dynamicrunning game. They’re on my list of bargain options.
FD($4,100) DK ($3,200)
The Rams DST turned in areal stinker last week against the Ravens, but the matchup this week is muchmore favorable, and they had scored 58 DK points total over the past four weeksbefore the negative performance in Week 12. Expect Aaron Donald and the rest ofthis unit to give Kyler Murray some trouble.
Also consider: Colts,Browns
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