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Los Angeles Clippers

The NBA is back with another six teams in action tonight. Similarly to how we saw on Tuesday, strategy is key on small slates. It’s a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

With only six teams in action tonight, a single injury or rotation change can alter the slate. Moreover, these are teams that have the most complicated injury reports in the league. Thus, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Miami Heat (OTB)

Los Angeles Clippers (OTB)

There is no way to analyze this rotation until we see the Clippers’ final injury report. Thankfully, this is the first game on the NBA slate. With so many players missing the front end of their back-to-back, LA can have a thin rotation tonight, depending on how the dominos fall. Both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, who played last night, are rest candidates, in addition to Reggie Jackson. Moreover, John Wall, Marcus Morris Sr., Norman Powell, and Luke Kennard all missed last night’s game. There will be plenty of value in this game, beginning with the Clippers.

Miami Heat (OTB)

Similarly to the Clippers, the final injury report for the Heat will dictate how the chips fall. The biggest domino of them all is the availability of Jimmy Butler, who is questionable due to conditioning. Should he miss a second straight game, Tyler Herro instantly becomes one of the most popular plays on the NBA slate. Herro has now posted 20 or more points in four straight contests, averaging 26.3/6.8/5.8 on 53.4% shooting through a 26.5% usage rate. The status of Jimmy Butler truly dictates how the Heat will look, which we’ll have to wait on.

Houston Rockets @ San Antonio Spurs (+2.5)

Houston Rockets (-2.5)

Should Kevin Porter Jr. miss this game, Jalen Green becomes one of the most enticing options on tonight’s NBA slate. While he has been inconsistent with his shot, Green faces a San Antonio defense that ranks 26th in the league versus combo guards. Moreover, Green leads the team in usage rate this season, but sees a drastic shift in production with KPJ off the floor. His usage rate climbs to 33.5% from 28.9%, while his fantasy points per minute increases from 0.99 to 1.13. Elsewhere, Alperen Sengun gets a friendly matchup versus a Spurs interior that ranks 25th in the league versus true centers. Moreover, the Spurs rank 29th in points allowed in the paint per game with over 54 allowed nightly.

San Antonio Spurs (+2.5)

Issues are piling up for the Spurs. Not only is their injury report ridiculously lengthly, but they are 1-16 in their last 17 games. However, they are a mere underdog in this matchup. Jakob Poeltl, Keita Bates-Diop, Jeremy Sochan, and Blake Wesley are all out. Meanwhile, Devin Vassell is doubtful to play. Thus, both Tre Jones and Keldon Johnson are in for a heavy workload on offense tonight, flanked by the likes of Doug McDermott and Josh Richardson. There is also potential value here with Isaiah Roby and the rest of their frontcourt. In summary, make sure to check our projections to see where the value lies because it is with the Spurs on tonight’s NBA slate.

Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trail Blazers (+1.5)

Denver Nuggets (-1.5)

While I hopefully talked you off on Nikola Jokic in their matchup versus Dallas, where he posted a mere 42 fantasy points, I’m hoping to talk you into him tonight. Now, this strategy is only feasible if the Spurs value grades out well in my projections. However, should it do so, the back and forth between Jokic and one of four Trail Blazers is the route to take on this NBA slate. Despite only being third on his team in usage rate at 26.5%, Jokic has the upside to dominate this matchup. Portland currently ranks 24th in the NBA against true centers. Moreover, Jusuf Nurkic and Jerami Grant have two of the worst defensive ratings amongst qualified players. If you choose to go the Keldon Johnson/Tre Jones route with Spurs exposure, then Aaron Gordon/Jamal Murray/Bones Hyland are the Nuggets you can look at.

Portland Trail Blazers (+1.5)

After missing seven games, Damian Lillard made his return to the lineup last game in a victory against Indiana. Lillard posted over 40 fantasy points in his return, but did shoot 7-for-16 from the field. However, he did make five three-pointers on ten attempts. Denver currently ranks 19th in the NBA in three-pointers allowed per game, while also ranking 20th in three-point percentage allowed. Similarly to the strategy described above with Jokic, should you choose the midrange route for Portland, then Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant are the targets. Specifically, Grant has posted 27 or more points in six straight games. During that span, Grant has averaged 32.2/2.8/3.7 on 47.7% shooting through a 32.6% usage rate.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

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Only six teams are in action tonight. However, there are plenty of NBA stars facing off against one another, while a few others have already been ruled out. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

With only three games on tonight’s schedule, a single injury can alter the look of lineups. Thus, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

New York Knicks @ Detroit Pistons (+3.5)

New York Knicks (-3.5)

Despite what the Pistons final injury report looks like, the Knicks have an intriguing player in the midrange of the pricing grid. With 27 or more points in four straight games, including 30 or more in his last three, Jalen Brunson is carrying this offense. Through his last four appearances, Brunson has posted a 30.8/3.3/6.3 scoring line on 51.8% shooting through a team-leading 31.3% usage rate. The Pistons currently rank 27th in the NBA against primary ball handlers and have the league’s 29th ranked defense.

Detroit Pistons (+3.5)

There won’t be a confirmation on how to get exposure to the Pistons until their final injury report is released. With four of five starters currently listed as questionable, including all of whom missed their last game, the Pistons can either be a popular source of value or targets in the midrange. The Knicks currently rank 11th in the NBA in pace and 27th in defensive rating. Thus, this will be a game environment that is far from one to avoid.

Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks (+1.5)

Golden State Warriors (-1.5)

Obviously, Steph Curry is the primary target on this Warriors offense. Not only is Curry posting better numbers than his unanimous MVP season, but he is leading the team in usage rate and scoring, while being second in rebounds and assists. If you are not getting exposure to the Warriors with Curry, you need to be doing so elsewhere. On their current five-game winning streak, the Warriors support cast have been elite. Both Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins have averaged over 20 points per game on over 50% shooting. Moreover, Draymond Green has averaged 11.3/5/9 while logging 31 or more minutes in every game. The Mavericks are last in the NBA in pace, but the Warriors offense is in another great spot.

Dallas Mavericks (+1.5)

Outside of Luka Doncic, there is little to be excited about when it comes to the Mavericks’ fantasy outlook. Despite being on a four-game losing streak, Doncic has continued to dazzle. The NBA MVP candidate has posted a 28.8/7.3/9.5 scoring line on 53.2% shooting during that span. However, he has little support. Spencer Dinwiddie has a safe floor in this game environment, but other guards take priority of him; he is not a bad play by any means, but lacks upside. Christian Wood is another target given the lack of depth at the center position on this NBA slate. However, with the Warriors playing Green more at the ‘5’, Wood will have a tough time in the paint on both ends of the court. Nonetheless, the Mavericks will shift Dwight Powell to the bench quickly in favor of Christian Wood if they want to stay in this game, making the latter an intriguing target despite the tough matchup.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Portland Trail Blazers (-2.5)

Los Angeles Clippers (+2.5)

With the trio of Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and John Wall all ruled out for tonight, there is plenty of value on this Clippers offense. Ivica Zubac is fresh off a ridiculous 31/29/3 game and gets a phenomenal matchup against Jusuf Nurkic, making him the popular option at the thin center position. He is in a good spot, but be wary of chasing another big game. Elsewhere, with both Wall and Kennard missing in the backcourt, the trio of Reggie Jackson, Terence Mann, and Norman Powell will get many looks on offense. While all three are volatile given their dependence on their scoring output, Mann has the safer floor of the trio due to his upside on the glass and with his ball handling.

Portland Trail Blazers (-2.5)

Damian Lillard is slated to miss another game with his injury. Thus, Portland should be one of the first rotations you go to on this NBA slate. With Justice Winslow replacing Shaedon Sharpe in the starting lineup, the bench is getting little to no minutes. Joining Winslow are Simons, Hart, Nurkic, and Grant. Of the four, Jerami Grant is the most intriguing. Yes, Anfernee Simons has the higher upside as the primary shooter, but Grant gets a friendly matchup versus a defense that ranks 28th in the NBA versus wings. Over his last five games, Grant has scored in double digits in every one, posting a 25.2/2.8/2.6 scoring line on 45.8% shooting. There should be interest in Nurkic, Simons, and Winslow as well in an overlooked game on a small slate.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

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There are many elite game environments and plenty of stars on this NBA slate. Unfortunately, some have already been ruled out and will be missing in action. Injuries have derailed slates over the last few weeks, and tonight is no different. It’s a Wet Wednesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

A single injury can alter an NBA slate. As has been the theme of the past few weeks, there hasn’t just been one, but many major injuries to monitor. Thus, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Charlotte Hornets (-4.5)

Philadelphia 76ers (+4.5)

I wrote up Shake Milton for yesterday’s NBA and the same applies on the second half of a back-to-back: “Although he figures to be one of, if not the most rostered player on the slate, it will be hard to avoid Shake Milton tonight. Over his last two games, Milton has a 25.5% usage rate. Moreover, he has posted a 21/4.5/4 scoring line on 59.3% shooting, including 44.4% from deep.” With Joel Embiid, James Harden, and Tyrese Maxey still out for the 76ers, Milton is as close to a free square as it gets.

Charlotte Hornets (-4.5)

In the absence of LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier will carry this offense. However, with stronger intrigue for other guards on the NBA slate, I cannot find a spot for him in my NBA lineups. Thus, I’ll be looking at Kelly Oubre Jr. and PJ Washington. Now, you don’t have to force exposure to this offense. Rather, the two make for low rostered plays to get different. In their last two games since Ball reaggravated his injury, it is Oubre Jr., not Rozier, who leads the team in usage rate at 27.8%. Moreover, Oubre Jr. has posted a remarkable 28.5 points per game on 53.7% shooting in his last two appearances. Not only has Oubre Jr. been outperforming Rozier, but it is PJ Washington, not Rozier, who is second on the team in scoring in their last two. With the 76ers being forced to roll out a small lineup in the absence of Embiid, Washington will have ample opportunity in the paint.

Sacramento Kings @ Atlanta Hawks (-6.5)

Sacramento Kings (+6.5)

If you are looking for a back and forth between two elite offenses, this is the game for you. Turning heads in November, the Kings have been one of, if not the best team in the NBA lately. Not only do they currently have the #1 ranked offense, but they have a formidable duo in De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis complemented with elite shooting. If you have been following over the past few years, you already know how I feel about both Fox and Sabonis. Rather than writing them both up once again, I’ll emphasize what Kevin Huerter brings to this offense. Sporting an 18.6% usage rate on the season, Huerter has posted a 16.6/2.9/3.5 scoring line on 50% shooting. Moreover, he has the seventh best three-point shooting percentage in the NBA at 49.5%. A tough matchup looms on the perimeter, but this offense is scorching.

Atlanta Hawks (-6.5)

Despite the Hawks cooling off after starting their season with a 4-1 record, Trae Young has been heating up. For the eighth consecutive contest, Young posted 20 or more points versus the Cavaliers. During that span, Young has a team-leading 33.3% usage rate and has posted a 25.9/3/9.6 scoring line on 42.1% shooting. While the Kings have greatly improved their team defense, they can still be beaten by primary ball handlers, allowing over 26 points and 8 assists per 36 minutes. Enter Young, who is one of the best to do it in today’s NBA.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Golden State Warriors (-6.5)

Los Angeles Clippers (+6.5)

Lengthly injuries is once again costing the Clippers. It only gets worse, as both Kawhi Leonard (ankle) and Paul George (hamstring) are set to miss tonight’s game. As a result, this is going to be one of the most interesting rotations on the NBA slate. There are different ways to get exposure here, depending on how the rest of your lineup shakes out. Reggie Jackson and Ivica Zubac figure to carry the bulk of the offensive looks in the starting lineup. The two are both averaging approximately 33 minutes per game over their last three. Moreover, Jackson has posted a 23.3/3/3.7 scoring line on 58.1% shooting during that span, while Zubac has the better matchup of the two with Golden State ranked 26th versus centers. If you want scoring power off the bench, both John Wall and Norman Powell are elite options on the slate as well.

Golden State Warriors (-6.5)

Amidst early season troubles, the Warriors seem to have their groove on offense. With the majority of their starters having rested last game, Golden State figures to be back at full strength tonight. Thus, there is a lot of firepower here between two Western Conference title contenders. In a matchup against the Clippers, the Splash Brothers will once again be at the focal point of the offense. Klay Thompson is coming off a season-high 41 points, making 10 of 13 three-pointers against the Rockets. Moreover, Steph Curry made seven three-pointers of his own, posting a 33/6/15 scoring line on 55% shooting. Sporting a 31.2% usage rate on the season, Curry has been posting better numbers than his unanimous MVP season, making him one of the best plays on the NBA slate.

Honorable Mentions:

  • Portland Trail Blazers @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-8.5)
  • Brooklyn Nets @ Toronto Raptors (-1.5)
  • New Orleans Pelicans @ San Antonio Spurs (+6.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

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Tonight’s NBA slate is one of the oddest the season has to offer. Not only are there only six teams in action, but all three games tipoff at 10pm EST. There are elite studs at the top of the pricing grid, while two of three games stick out above the other. It’s a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

With only three games on the schedule tonight, a single injury can alter the outlook of the slate. Thus, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

San Antonio Spurs @ Sacramento Kings (-6.5)

San Antonio Spurs (+6.5)

If you are looking to build a more balanced lineup for tonight’s NBA slate, there are two Spurs to monitor. With the Kings ranked 28th in the NBA to wings, the duo of Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson are once again at the forefront. While I have been fond of Vassell’s game since his draft year, his point/dollar upside is limited given his reliance on scoring. Therefore, I prefer to target Keldon Johnson in this game. Leading the team with a 27.7% usage rate, Johnson is having a breakout campaign. Amidst the departure of Dejounte Murray in the offseason, Johnson has taken his offensive game to new heights. Not only is Johnson averaging a career high in points, but his efficiency has greatly improved. His 16.9 field goal attempts per game is also a career high, while still shooting 45.1% from the field. Moreover, Johnson is averaging nearly nine three-point attempts per game while shooting 42.3% from deep.

Sacramento Kings (-6.5)

Since I’ll be turning to the top of the pricing grid in the next game, I’ll recommend the Kings’ role players in this spot. The key to this will be the availability of Keegan Murray. The rookie left last game with a back injury and did not return. Should he be forced to miss tonight’s game, there are a trio of options to us. Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk, and Terence Davis will all see increased time should Murray sit out. While the field will likely chase Davis’ 31-point outburst from last game, this is a prime spot for Kevin Huerter. Huerter has now made four or more three-pointers in his last three games, shooting 52.6% from deep and is in a great matchup. The Spurs currently rank last in the NBA versus off-ball spot-up shooters. Moreover, the Spurs rank 29th in three-point percentage allowed and 22nd in three-pointers made per game.

Brooklyn Nets @ Portland Trail Blazers (-2.5)

Brooklyn Nets (+2.5)

After an embarrassing 32-point loss to the Kings on Tuesday, the Nets’ week has been filled with drama. Not only did the Nets get humiliated on the road, but Kevin Durant later questioned the talent of the team’s roster in a press conference. Considering Durant has never held anything back in the media before, this shouldn’t be all that surprising. However, he needs to come out and dominate this game more so than ever now. Despite the hefty price tag, there is no better bet than Durant leading the NBA slate in scoring. Whether he is optimal remains to be seen, but having the slate’s leading scorer in your lineups is never a bad thing. Simply put, there is no one on the Trail Blazers that can guard Durant.

Portland Trail Blazers (-2.5)

If you are looking for a back and forth in the best game on the NBA slate, Damian Lillard is an elite target. However, rostering both he and Durant severely limits your options with the remaining spots in your lineup. Thus, I want to highlight the duo of Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons. Specifically, the former has been on a tear lately. Sporting a 27.4% usage rate during their last three games, Grant has posted a 31/7.3/2.3 scoring line on 56.1% shooting. Moreover, he has scored 27 or more points in all three games. Likewise, Simons has been producing well also. Simons is no slouch either, sporting a 26.5% usage rate and carrying a 23.3/4.3/3.3 scoring line on 38.9% shooting during the same span. With Simons having attempted a whopping 34 three-point attempts in his last three games, including ten or more in all three appearances, he has the ability to drastically alter this slate. The Nets currently rank 28th in the league in three-point percentage allowed and allow 13.5 three-pointers made per contest, good for 27th in the NBA.

Detroit Pistons @ Los Angeles Clippers (-9)

Detroit Pistons (+9)

Of the three games on tonight’s NBA schedule, this is far and away my least favorite. However, with Cade Cunningham set to miss a fourth consecutive game, there will be intrigue here. In the absence of Cunningham, Jaden Ivey and Bojan Bogdanovic have led the the team in usage at 28.6% and 27%, respectively. While Bogdanovic has led the team in scoring during that stretch, it is Ivey who has a better matchup tonight. With the Clippers ranked 25th in the league versus primary ball handlers, this has been a matchup we’ve picked on for the longest time. Ivey has posted a 19/3.7/5 scoring line on 42.9% shooting in his last three without Cunningham, making him the preferred target in this one.

Los Angeles Clippers (-9)

As mentioned above, this is my least favorite game of the three on tonight’s NBA slate. Thus, I have little intrigue in the Clippers offense. However, what can shake things up is the availability of Paul George. The Clippers star is currently questionable with a hand injury. Considering this is the team’s third game in four days, there is a serious chance he sits out tonight. Should that be the case, John Wall is an elite target in the mid range. Currently second on the team in usage rate at 28.2%, Wall has been efficient with his time on the court. It has been five straight games where Wall has scored in double digits, posting a 13.6/3.4/5.6 scoring line on 42.6% shooting. Additionally, the Pistons currently rank last in the NBA against primary handlers.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

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After a big NBA slate yesterday, we’re back with eight teams in action tonight. Two of these game environments stand out above the rest, while the other two feature both injury news to follow and many star players. It’s a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

On smaller NBA slates, a single injury or minutes restriction can alter the outlook. In order to keep up, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Dallas Mavericks @ Brooklyn Nets (-1)

Dallas Mavericks (+1)

This NBA slate is loaded with elite options at the guard position, and it starts with Luka Doncic at the very top. Currently sitting 19th in the league against primary ball handlers, the Nets perimeter defense will get all it can handle with Doncic tonight. The MVP candidate comes into this game sporting a league-high 41.3% usage rate while posting a phenomenal 34.7/9/7.7 scoring line on 50% shooting. While he is far and away the most expensive player on the slate, no one carries the upside that Doncic does. We’ll need some value to make this work with a smaller player pool, so be sure to keep up with the news.

Brooklyn Nets (-1)

While Kyrie Irving is another example of an elite play at the guard position, there’s another Brooklyn Net that catches me eye. No, it is not Kevin Durant, as he does not fit my lineup structure at the time of writing. Rather, it will be Nic Claxton. I wrote him up on Monday and he came through with a 16/7 scoring line despite the early foul trouble. Claxton seems to have cemented his role, not only in the starting lineup, but throughout the game’s entirety. Logging 33 and 34 minutes in back-to-back contests, Claxton has now scored 13 or more points in all three games this season, recording two double-doubles in the process. With the Mavericks sitting 20th in the NBA in points allowed in the paint per game, Claxton makes for a good midrange target in tournaments tonight.

LA Clippers @ OKC Thunder (+6.5)

LA Clippers (-6.5)

Despite Kawhi Leonard (knee) missing tonight’s game, the Clippers are planning to have Paul George (illness) back in the lineup. Thus, there is limited exposure I want here. Should George play in this one, one of few players I’d have interest in would be Ivica Zubac. While his minutes will fluctuate, Zubac will see extended run tonight in the absence of Marcus Morris Sr. (personal) from the lineup. Even with two games where he saw 24 or less minutes, Zubac has averaged 11.8 rebounds per game and gets to go up against a Thunder frontcourt that is seriously undermanned. With veterans Robert Covington, Nic Batum, and John Wall all being eased back into game shape, Zubac will be the main benefactor from the ball movement of this Clippers offense.

OKC Thunder (+6.5)

As if we didn’t have enough elite options at the guard position on this slate, cue Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. However, I’ll save you the trouble because I prefer the players discussed below. Rather, I’ll get my exposure to this Thunder offense in the form of SGA’s supporting cast. In the absence of Josh Giddey (ankle), yet another player from Monday’s article will be at the forefront of my focus. Tre Mann, despite SGA being active, looked tremendous on the offensive side of the ball. Pouring in 25 points on 41.7% shooting, Mann was no slouch next to the All-NBA talent. Rather, it was indeed Mann who led the team in shots, not SGA, while also sporting a 27.6% usage rate to SGA’s 29%. The two both logged 36 minutes, combining for 58 of the team’s 108 points in a landslide victory versus these same Clippers.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Sacramento Kings (+5)

Memphis Grizzlies (-5)

Although the guard position began with a Luka Doncic discussion, Ja Morant isn’t far off. Playing in the best game environment on a small NBA slate, Morant looks to take advantage of a turnover prone Sacramento offense. While the player below thrives in a fast-paced setting, so does Morant. His capability to push the pace and get the basket with ease will be on full display tonight. Now four games into the season, Morant has scored 20 or more points in every one, while posting a 35.3/4.3/7 scoring line on 54.8% shooting through a 35.9% usage rate.

Sacramento Kings (+5)

I surely hope he goes overlooked because of other guards on this slate because I’d love nothing more than to stack De’Aaron Fox with Ja Morant. My darkhorse for Most Improved Player of the Year, Fox finished last season on a torrid pace and has picked up right where he left off. Now three games into the campaign, Fox has scored 26 or more points in all three outings, including two 30-point performances. He sneakily has a 33.8% usage rate on the season, while posting a remarkable 31.7/5.7/7 scoring line on 59.4% shooting. While his counterpart, Ja Morant, makes for a great option on offense, he is a terrible defender. Thus, I plan on picking on Morant and his 122.6 net defensive rating with Fox.

Honorable Mention:

  • Miami Heat @ Golden State Warriors (-7)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

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Back to a short NBA slate after plenty of teams were in action last night. Injury news awaits us, while a handful of players will be popular in the majority of lineups. Some situations are unavoidable given the injury news, while others may impact the slate closer to lock. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

The NBA is unlike any other sport from a DFS perspective, but with our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups, you’re right where you need to be to succeed. Be sure to join the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need to win.

Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Pelicans

Dallas Mavericks (-5.5)

There is no debate about Luka Doncic being the player with the most upside on this NBA slate. Leading the league in usage rate, Doncic has gotten off to a terrific start this season. Through two games, Doncic has posted back-to-back 30-point efforts on a 33.5/8/8 scoring line. Not only is he taking 23 field goal attempts per contest, but he is also averaging nearly ten 3PA. Shooting a remarkable 47.8% from the field, the volume has not affected his efficiency whatsoever. If you were with us last season, you know how much I love to play primary ball handlers versus the Pelicans. In three games this season, New Orleans has allowed Terry Rozier to drop 23/8/11 only to allow Jordan Clarkson to score 18 points on an inefficient 7-for-19 shooting. With Doncic being much more gifted offensively, the Pelicans are in trouble on the perimeter.

New Orleans Pelicans (+5.5)

With Brandon Ingram (concussion) out for tonight’s game, the trio of McCollum, Williamson, and Valanciunas are firmly in play. However, key news awaits us as Zion (hip) is listed as questionable after leaving last game after a scary fall on a dunk attempt. Should the Pelicans proceed with caution and rest him, it will be all systems go on Valanciunas and McCollum, but should all three play, my favorite is in the backcourt. Leading the team in both minutes played and scoring, McCollum will see an increase in assist rate tonight in the absence of Ingram, and potentially Williamson. The offense will shift from less isolation and ball movement will be key, playing right into McCollum’s hands for a great NBA DFS output.

LA Clippers @ OKC Thunder (+10)

LA Clippers (-10)

With both Paul George (illness) and Marcus Morris Sr. (personal) ruled out for tonight’s game, plenty of touches are available on offense. Under normal circumstances, Kawhi Leonard would be a stone cold lock on an NBA slate like this with George out, but the former’s minutes are still being monitored. Thus, John Wall and Norman Powell share the spotlight in my Clippers writeup. The former has carried a 32.3% usage rate through two games this season, leading the team. Flashing scoring upside off the bench, Wall gets a cakewalk of a matchup with both Gilgeous-Alexander and Giddey out tonight for the Thunder. On the other hand, Powell has struggled to find his shot thus far. Buying low on a high volume player is the goal here; his 25.9% from the field will turn the field away, but I Iove the spot for the Clippers wing.

OKC Thunder (+10)

Early in the NBA season, this rotation is as thin as it gets and we need to take advantage. The Thunder have already announced that both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (hip) and Josh Giddey (ankle) will be out tonight. While Lugentz Dort makes for a great play, the majority of the field will flock in his direction. However, my attention draws to a former Florida Gator. Tre Mann is now in his second season and will thrive in situations like this with the ball in his hands. He carries massive offensive upside and can create his own shot; a skill that is rare in young players. In a much larger sample size last season than the current one, with both SGA and Giddey off the floor, Mann saw a drastic increase in usage rate, from 22% to 28%, while also seeing his fantasy points per minute (FPPM) increase from 0.8 to 0.93.

Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns (-2.5)

Golden State Warriors (+2.5)

This game will largely go overlooked on tonight’s NBA slate. Despite three straight 30-point games to open with season, I can’t imagine the field rostering Steph Curry over Luka Doncic. However, with a true shooting of 66.1%, good for sixth in the league and second amongst guards, you know Curry can lead any slate in scoring with his 3-point shot. If you’re not going with Curry and insist on getting exposure to this game, there are two routes you can take. Either ride a hot hand in Andrew Wiggins, who gets an awfully tough matchup versus Mikal Bridges, or pick on Deandre Ayton in the paint with Kevon Looney or James Wiseman. My level of exposure to this game remains to be seen with pending injury news leading up to lock.

Phoenix Suns (-2.5)

With the Pelicans offense being a priority for me, I’m likely to pass on Devin Booker. However, depending on how injury news breaks, Chris Paul may find himself in my NBA lineups if the value is there to support it. After a rough season debut, CP3 improved his play over the last two games. Sitting seventh in the league in assist rate is no surprise to one of the best point guards to ever do it, but his scoring this late in his career is a cause for concern. While Paul will control the offensive flow, should this game be tight do the stretch, it will certainly be Booker taking shots over CP3.

Honorable Mention:

  • Detroit Pistons @ Washington Wizards (-5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

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After numerous NBA teams kicked off their season yesterday, we have a mere four squads in action tonight. However, the stars are plentiful and two marquee matchups await us. Two perennial MVP candidates face off in a battle of two Eastern Conference powerhouses, while the battle of LA closes out the slate. It’s a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

As previously mentioned in articles and in Discord, the rate at which news breaks in the NBA is unlike any other sport. This not only makes every slate different, but it emphasizes how crucial it is to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups. Be sure to join the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need to win NBA DFS tournaments.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Philadelphia 76ers (-4)

Milwaukee Bucks (+4)

With Khris Middleton (wrist) ruled out for the first few weeks of the NBA season, Giannis Antetokounmpo will have to carry this Bucks offense. In addition, not only is Donte DiVincenzo now in Golden State, but Pat Connaughton (calf) is also missing for the opening month of action. The Bucks are suddenly thin on offense, and it will be up to Giannis and Jrue Holiday to carry the load. The former ended last season with a 29.9/11.6/5.8 scoring line on 55.3% shooting while leading his team with a 34.6% usage rate. Tonight, at the top of the pricing grid, he is far and away the premier option.

Philadelphia 76ers (-4)

Despite James Harden stealing the show in a season opening loss for the 76ers, it was Joel Embiid who saw the most action on offense, as he did for the majority of last year’s NBA season. Pacing his squad with a 33% usage rate, Embiid failed to take advantage of early foul trouble for Al Horford and Noah Vonleh, but still led the team in field goal attempts and rebounds, while also getting to the charity stripe nine times.

Debating between the two Philadelphia stars tonight is an issue given their individual matchups. Embiid has to deal with Giannis and Lopez in the paint, while Harden sees a far more elite defender in Holiday than he did on opening night in Marcus Smart. Thus, I’ll be going back to the well with Tyrese Maxey. Despite a slow start, Maxey scored 21 points on 50% shooting, where 15 of his 21 points came in the second and fourth quarters. Not only did he play every second of those frames, but he was the go-to option on offense. Lining up against the likes of Wes Matthews and Grayson Allen, Maxey is one of the best Point/$ options on tonight’s NBA slate, let alone this Philadelphia offense.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Los Angeles Lakers (+5.5)

LA Clippers (-5.5)

The return of Kawhi Leonard is one of the best storylines this NBA season has to offer. After missing all of last year, Leonard looks to form a formidable duo with Paul George in the quest for a championship. Despite 2016-2017 being the last time he played over 70 games, Kawhi remains a top 10 talent in this league. In over 100 games played, Leonard sports a 30.8% usage rate during his Clippers tenure, averaging a 26/6/5.8 scoring line. Unless he is on a hard minutes limit, both he and George make for excellent tournament plays.

LA Lakers (+5.5)

We can talk about Russell Westbrook and the Lakers’ shooting woes all we want, but truthfully, that isn’t where the issue lies. Yes, the Lakers shot an abysmal 10-for-40 from behind the arc on opening night, but it was Anthony Davis’ lack of aggressiveness in the paint the caught my eye. Despite playing against much weaker and smaller big men in the paint, Davis grabbed a mere six rebounds, while LeBron took down fifteen. Finishing second on the Lakers with 22 field goal attempts, in addition to nine free throws, Davis has the ceiling to be an elite target on any NBA slate, but remains to regain true form.

Firstly, the trio of Laker guards is a question mark tonight, as is what to do with LeBron James. You simply cannot fit James while playing one of George or Leonard alongside Giannis, so a decision has to be made. The public can say what they want about Westbrook, but he was efficient on opening night, dropping 19/11/3 on only twelve shots. He was pushing the pace and attacking the glass for rebounds. Kendrick Nunn remains an x-factor on offense in a supporting role off the bench, but his shot needs to drop for him to produce in NBA DFS. Lastly, Patrick Beverley will always be a wild card given his tenacity, but a game environment like this screams decent production. The usage will be modest throughout the season, but if he can stay out of foul trouble, the assists and rebounds will be there.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

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Jacob’s Above Average Plays is back with four plays that will knock your socks off. Two NHL, one NBA, and one play on the first game of the NFL’s Wild Card Playoff weekend. These are the kind of plays that make you a winner.

Take Los Angeles Clippers -11 versus Memphis Grizzlies ( 3:30 pm EST, Saturday 4 January 2020)

The Grizzlies travel to Los Angeles to take on the Clippers. The Clippers are one of the league’s best home teams straight up and against the spread. When the Clippers play at home they are really tough to beat. The Clippers won fifteen of the eighteen games they played and they covered the spread in twelve of them. They score an average of almost 117 points per game at home (116.67 ppg) while allowing just 105.72 ppg to visitors. Paul George is likely out for this game and that doesn’t bother me. Kawhi Leonard is more than capable of leading this team himself as Memphis is one of the worst road teams in the NBA.

Memphis was a bad team all year. They dealt with multiple injuries already this season and, while the team is slowly coming back together, the Clippers are not the team to turn the corner on. The Grizzlies only won six of the sixteen road games they played this year, covering in seven of them. Their defense is ranked twenty-fifth in the league in points allowed when playing on the road, allowing 115.19 points per game. Memphis allows teams to shoot almost 50% from the field (46.36%) and that’s bad news as the Clippers are an above-average scoring team at home. The Clippers have a 46.12% field goal percentage and make 35.87% of their three-point attempts.

Memphis is not the team that will give the Clippers a run for their money. Not only do the Clippers cover the spread 66% of the time when playing at home but have covered in eleven of seventeen games versus teams who win less than 45% of their games.  Grab this line soon, as it opened with the Clippers as ten-point favorites and it has already moved up to eleven and I can only see it to continue to go up.

Take Buffalo Bills +3 versus Houston Texans ( 4:35 pm EST, Saturday 4 January 2020)

This Wild Card match-up is the first game of the NFL playoffs this season. Buffalo travels to Houston as three-point underdogs where Houston covered, just once, as a home favorite in the last seven games played when they were favored.

Houston had above average moments this year, so don’t get me wrong when I say they don’t cover the spread at home. It’s just a fact! Houston was an on-again, off-again respectable offense but that’s when they were healthy and, right now, they are not. Wide receiver Will Fuller is a long shot to play today and he changes the offense when he is on the field. He is the Texans deep threat and deep plays are a big part of their offense. When Fuller is on the field quarterback Deshaun Watson’s deep pass completion percentage goes from 34.3% to 43.2% and that really opens up the passing game. Overall, their offense is an above-average offense ranked thirteenth in the league in scoring, fifteenth in passing and twelfth in rushing but they are taking on one of the league’s best defenses in Buffalo. I see that being a major problem for them. It doesn’t help that Houston ranks in the bottom third of the league in rushing and passing defense. While this is Josh Allen’s first playoff game, I see him being able to take advantage of their weak defense (yes, even though J.J Watt is back).

Buffalo’s team played above average all year, especially on defense. The Buffalo defense ranked second in the league in points allowed, allowing just an average of 16.19 points a game. They hold teams under 200 yards passing per game (195.13 yards) and 103.13 yards rushing per game. Buffalo’s team is built to control the clock and keep Houston off the field. They have the better defense and, if Josh Allen can take advantage of a weak Houston defense, I think he and wide receiver, Jon Brown, will have a field day. Bill’s running back, Devin Singletary, progressed nicely as a rookie and, if Buffalo can get the lead, I see them using Singletary to keep Watson and the Houston offense off the field.

I think Buffalo is the better team here and that they cover this line. They are arguably coached way better than Houston this year. Coach Sean McDermott turned Josh Allen into an NFL quarterback!  With the Houston passing game banged up, I think they struggle to not only move the ball but score points. I really think Buffalo gets the outright win here but I’ll take the points just in case. Take Buffalo plus three points.

Take Philadelphia Flyers versus Arizona Coyotes YES-Goal scored in the 1st 10 minutes -122 (8:00 pm EST, Saturday 4 January 2020)

Philadelphia is one of the best teams in the league having goals scored in the first ten minutes of their games. The Flyers have had goals scored in the first ten minutes of their games in 25 of the 34 played, which is quite above average at 73.5% of the time. When Philadelphia goes on the road, a goal is scored in the first ten minutes in over 85% of their games. Arizona, too, has an above-average amount of goals scored in the first ten minutes of their games. The Coyotes have had at least one goal scored in the first ten minutes in 25 out of the 42 games played, which is good for 59.5% of the time. The Coyotes tend to play faster and more aggressive at home versus the Flyers. The Flyers play faster and more aggressive when on the road versus Arizona. The total hit the over in six of the last seven games when Philadelphia traveled to Arizona to play. The way these two teams have been playing, I do not see this being any different. Take YES- Goal scored in the 1st 10 minutes -122.

(For this bet to win, either team must score a goal in the first ten minutes of the game. If the game reaches ten minutes and one second without a goal, we have a loser.)

Take Philadelphia Flyers versus Arizona Coyotes OVER 5.5 Goals -108 (8:00 pm EST, Saturday 4 January 2020)

There are just too many stats pointed towards the over in this game. Philly went over the total in five of their last six road games and in five of their last seven games overall. The Flyers went over the total in six of the last seven versus Arizona when playing them on the road. Arizona is at home in this game and they score an above-average amount of goals when at home. When the Coyotes are at home, they have gone over the total in eight of their last ten games, averaging just about three goals per game (2.9 gpg). This is good news for Arizona as Philadelphia allows almost four goals per game (3.73 gpg) when playing on the road. 

These two teams play each other tough and when they meet there are usually a lot of goals. The combined average score between these two teams in the last ten games played versus each other is 6.4 goals. The total today is 5.5, I’m taking the over.

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With only two games on the 11/26 NBA DFS slate, tonight might be a good night to not go all-in and play it safe. Showdown format is suggested as most players will be overvalued in most classic formats.

Three of the four teams playing tonight rank among the top 10 in scoring, but the Wizards — ranked third in scoring — must travel to Denver to meet a Nuggets team that leads the league in scoring defense while also ranking third in overall defensive rating.

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LA Clippers at Dallas, 8:30 PM Eastern

Clippers at a Glance: 6th in scoring (114.2), 11th in scoring defense (107.3), 5th in offensive rating (111.3), 10th in defensive rating (104.5), 12th in pace (102).

Stud: SF/PF Kawhi Leonard ($8800/DK). Dud: PG/SG Patrick Beverley ($4700/DK). Sleeper: PG/SG Lou Williams ($6300/DK).

Mavericks at a Glance: 2nd in scoring (119.1), 15th in scoring defense (109.9), 1st in offensive rating (118.2), 18th in defensive rating (109.2), 20th in pace (100.1).

Stud: PG/SG Luka Doncic ($11,400). Dud: PF/C Kristaps Porzingis ($6900/DK). Sleeper: SG/SF Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5000/DK).

Washington at Denver, 9:00 PM Eastern

Wizards at a Glance: 3rd in scoring (119.1), 29th in scoring defense (120.3), 2nd in offensive rating (114.5), 30th in defensive rating (115.1), 5th in pace (104).

Stud: C Thomas Bryant ($6700/FD). Dud: SG Bradley Beal ($9700/FD). Sleeper: SF Davis Bertans ($6000/FD).

Nuggets at a Glance: 25th in scoring (106.7), 1st in scoring defense (101.7), 16th in offensive rating (107.9), 3rd in defensive rating (102.9), 29th in pace (97.5).

Stud: C Nikola Jokic ($10,800/FD). Dud: PF Paul Millsap ($6600/FD). Sleeper: SG Gary Harris ($4500/FD).

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We have freedom of choice tonight as the 11/22 NBA DFS Game Previews get us ready for 10 games from coast to coast along with a pretty cool prop bet as well.

Charlotte at Washington, 7:00 PM Eastern

Hornets at a Glance: 26th in scoring (104.9), 20th in scoring defense (112.8), 26th in offensive rating (104.4), 23rd in defensive rating (112.2), 23rd in pace (99.8).

Stud: PG/SG Devonte’ Graham ($6900/DK). Dud: PF/C PJ Washington ($4700/DK). Sleeper: C Cody Zeller ($4900/DK).

Wizards at a Glance: 2nd in scoring (119.7), 30th in scoring defense (121.1), 2nd in offensive rating (114.6), 30th in defensive rating (116), 6th in pace (104.4).

Stud: SG Bradley Beal ($9600/DK). Dud: PG Isaiah Thomas ($5100/DK). Sleeper: SF/PF Davis Bertans ($5200/DK).

Atlanta at Detroit, 7:00 PM Eastern

Hawks at a Glance: 19th in scoring (107.6), 26th in scoring defense (116.9), 27th in offensive rating (103.8), 27th in defensive rating (112.8), 11th in pace (102.8).

Stud: PG Trae Young ($9700/FD). Dud: SG Deandre’ Bembry ($4500/FD). Sleeper: PF Jabari Parker ($6900/FD).

Pistons at a Glance: 22nd in scoring (107.3), 19th in scoring defense (112), 16th in offensive rating (107.4), 22nd in defensive rating (112.1), 21st in pace (99.9).

Stud: C Andre Drummond ($9600/FD). Dud: SF Markieff Morris ($3700/FD). Sleeper: PG Derrick Rose ($5600/FD).

Sacramento at Brooklyn, 7:30 PM Eastern

Kings at a Glance: 25th in scoring (105.6), 13th in scoring defense (109), 14th in offensive rating (107.8), 21st in defensive rating (111.3), 29th in pace (98).

Stud: SG/SF Buddy Hield ($7400/DK). Dud: PF Nemanja Bjelica ($5700/DK). Sleeper: SF/PF Harrison Barnes ($5900/DK).

Nets at a Glance: 9th in scoring (113.5), 24th in scoring defense (116.6), 20th in offensive rating (106.7), 18th in defensive rating (109.6), 5th in pace (104.8).

Stud: PG/SG Spencer Dinwiddie ($7600/DK). Dud: C DeAndre’ Jordan ($5400/DK). Sleeper: SG/SF Joe Harris ($5000/DK).

Miami at Chicago, 8:00 PM Eastern

Heat at a Glance: 13th in scoring (112.2), 6th in scoring defense (103.7), 12th in offensive rating (109), 3rd in defensive rating (100.8), 12th in pace (102).

Stud: PF Bam Adebayo ($8600/FD). Dud: PG Kendrick Nunn ($5700/FD). Sleeper: SG Tyler Herro ($4700/FD).

Bulls at a Glance: 21st in scoring (107.3), 15th in scoring defense (109.8), 30th in offensive rating (103.7), 13th in defensive rating (106.1), 9th in pace (103.5).

Stud: SG Zach LaVine ($7100/FD). Dud: PG Tomas Satroransky ($5000/FD). Sleeper: PF Lauri Markkanen ($6800/FD).

LA Lakers at Oklahoma City, 8:00 PM Eastern

Lakers at a Glance: 15th in scoring (110.9), 2nd in scoring defense (101.1), 9th in offensive rating (109.9), 1st in defensive rating (100.2), 19th in pace (100.2).

Stud: PF/C Anthony Davis ($10,100/DK). Dud: SF/PF Kyle Kuzma ($4300/DK). Sleeper: C Dwight Howard ($4300/DK).

Thunder at a Glance: 24th in scoring (105.7), 9th in scoring defense (106.2), 22nd in offensive rating (102.5), 12th in defensive rating (106), 25th in pace (99.4).

Stud: PG/SG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($6400/DK). Dud: SF/PF Danilo Gallinari ($6100/DK). Sleeper: PG/SG Dennis Schroder ($5500/DK).

San Antonio at Philadelphia, 8:00 PM Eastern

Spurs at a Glance: 8th in scoring (113.5), 22nd in scoring defense (116.2), 4th in offensive rating (111.4), 28th in defensive rating (114), 14th in pace (102).

Stud: PF LaMarcus Aldridge ($7600/FD). Dud: SG DeMar DeRozan ($7800/FD). Sleeper: PG Dejounte Murray ($6400/FD).

76ers at a Glance: 16th in scoring (109.7), 11th in scoring defense (106.5), 15th in offensive rating (107.5), 10th in defensive rating (104.3), 17th in pace (101.3).

NBA Dfs Stud: PG Ben Simmons ($9000/FD). Dud: C Joel Embiid ($10,100/FD). Sleeper: PF Al Horford ($7000/FD).

Cleveland at Dallas, 8:30 PM Eastern

Cavaliers at a Glance: 28th in scoring (104.1), 16th in scoring defense (109.9), 23rd in offensive rating (104.5), 19th in defensive rating (110.3), 24th in pace (99.7).

Stud: PF/C Kevin Love ($7800/DK). Dud: PG/SG Jordan Clarkson ($4400/DK). Sleeper: PF/C Larry Nance ($5500/DK).

Mavericks at a Glance: 5th in scoring (116.1), 14th in scoring defense (109.6), 1st in offensive rating (115.4), 17th in defensive rating (109), 22nd in pace (99.8).

NBA DFS Stud: PG/SG Luka Doncic ($11,400/DK). Dud: SF/PF Dorian Finney-Smith ($4300/DK). Sleeper: SG/SF Tim Hardaway Jr. ($4500/DK).

Boston at Denver, 9:00 PM Eastern

Celtics at a Glance: 14th in scoring (112), 7th in scoring defense (104.4), 7th in offensive rating (110.5), 7th in defensive rating (103), 18th in pace (100.6).

Stud: SF Jaylen Brown ($6700/FD). Dud: PG Kemba Walker ($7600/FD). Sleeper: SG Marcus Smart ($6400/FD).

Nuggets at a Glance: 23rd in scoring (106.8), 3rd in scoring defense (102.3), 18th in offensive rating (107.2), 4th in defensive rating (102.7), 28th in pace (98).

Stud: PG Jamal Murray ($7000/FD). Dud: Nikola Jokic ($9000/FD). Sleeper: PF Paul Millsap ($6600/FD).

Golden State at Utah, 9:00 PM Eastern

Warriors at a Glance: 18th in scoring (108.2), 28th in scoring (118.9), 21st in offensive rating (105.5), 29th in defensive rating (116), 16th in pace (101.8).

Stud: SF/PF Eric Paschall ($6300/DK). Dud: PG/SG Alec Burks ($5700/DK). Sleeper: SG/SF Glenn Robinson III ($4600/DK).

Jazz at a Glance: 27th in scoring (104.4), 1st in scoring defense (100.6), 24th in offensive rating (104.4), 2nd in defensive rating (100.6), 20th in pace (100).

Stud: PG/SG Donovan Mitchell ($7900/DK). Dud: SG/SF Joe Ingles ($4400/DK). Sleeper: SF Royce O’Neal ($4000/DK).

Houston at LA Clippers, 10:30 PM Eastern

Rockets at a Glance: 3rd in scoring (117.9), 21st in scoring defense (113.1), 4th offensive rating (112), 15th in defensive rating (107.5), 2nd in pace (105.3).

Stud: SG James Harden ($11,500/FD). Dud: SF Danuel House ($5200/FD). Sleeper: PF P.J. Tucker ($4700/FD).

Clippers at a Glance: 12th in scoring (112.4), 10th in scoring defense (106.4), 11th in offensive rating (109.4), 8th in defensive rating (103.6), 13th in pace (102).

Stud: SF Paul George ($8600/FD). Dud: PG Patrick Beverley ($5600/FD). Sleeper: SF Moe Harkless ($4100/FD).

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