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leveon bell

Week 10 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Ravens at Dolphins

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 10 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 10 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 10 NFL DFS Chalk: Lamar Jackson (FD $17,500, DK $20,700)

Pivot: Mark Andrews (FD $13,000, DK $13,200)

Pivot #2: Marquise Brown (FD $13,500, DK $16,500)

Pivot #3: Jaylen Waddle (FD $12,000, DK $12,300)

Contrarian #1: DeVonta Freeman (FD $10,500, DK $9,900)

Contrarian #2: Mike Gesicki (FD $12,500, DK $11,100)

Oh, boy. We’ve finally gotten to an outrageous price point for our chalk captain, and on DK, the electric Lamar Jackson has eclipsed $20K. And when you consider that his passing yardage and rushing yardage props combine for right about 300 yards, it doesn’t seem all that silly. Jackson is actually from right nearby, in Pompano Beach. It’s only about a 35-minute drive away from Hard Rock Stadium, unless you get caught with faulty GPS in a less-than-desirable section of that city in a sketchy trailer park, which happened to me once. Most frightened I’ve ever been in my life. Anyway, we can find ways to get to Lamar at CPT, but there are some pivots to consider once we recognize that the Ravens don’t actually shut anybody down defensively.

Ravens notes: It probably won’t be the narrative we’ve seen a couple times before this season, where the Ravens need to come back from multiple TDs to notch a win, but I could see the offense starting off without a bang — giving the Dolphins (and their 26th worst defense against opposing fantasy RBs) healthy doses of DeVonta Freeman, who’s coming off his best game of 2021. Freeman is a good value and with Latavius Murray doubtful, we could see Le’Veon Bell get some carries as well. The receiving options have expanded as well, and while Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown are the two most obvious options, we have a healthy Rashod Bateman, a resurgent Devin Duvernay coming off a big Week 9, and god old Sammy Watkins, who’s expected to play. Bateman’s eight targets against the Vikings could be a sign of bigger things to come, so he’s the priority after Andrews and Brown. Of course, the Ravens DST and Justin Tucker are worth mixing into your builds as well.

Dolphins notes: We’re still not sure who’s starting at QB for the Dolphins, but that’s baked into the pricing because they’re not that far apart. I don’t have much interest in Tua Tagovailoa if he starts, but the minimal discount on Jacoby Brissett could mean I’ll use him in 2-3 out of 10 GPP builds. Myles Gaskin could see a few extra targets in the passing game, and while the Ravens run defense isn’t great, the Dolphins have had a rough time making holes for Gaskin in a traditional offensive sense. For that reason, I’m most enamored by the possibilities that exist with Mike Gesicki and Jaylen Waddle, both dynamic players who can rack up catches and yardage. Remaining options include Mack Hollins and my favorite cheap option tonight — WR Preston Williams, who’s just $200 as a flex play and could be worth a look at captain in some contrarian builds — just like I planned for Jimmy Graham on MNF before the football gods yanked away my shot at glory.

Week 10 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Neglect Preston Williams. His price tag allows for lots of stacked builds and a shot at rostering Lamar with some other high-upside plays.

Now that we’ve established some Week 10 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Lamar Jackson
Mark Andrews
Marquise Brown
DeVonta Freeman
Jaylen Waddle
Mike Gesicki
Rashod Bateman
Myles Gaskin
Jacoby Brissett
Ravens DST
Preston Williams
Tua Tagovailoa (if active)
Justin Tucker
Sammy Watkins
Mack Hollins
Jason Sanders
Devin Duvernay
Le’Veon Bell
Dolphins DST
Albert Wilson
Salvon Ahmed
Patrick Ricard
Durham Smythe

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 9 action!

2 years ago 0 comment

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports Premium

Week 5 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Colts at Ravens

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 5 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 5 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 5 NFL DFS Chalk: Lamar Jackson (FD $17,000, DK $18,900)

Pivot: Jonathan Taylor (FD $13,000, DK $14,700)

Contrarian #1: Marquise Brown (FD $13,500, DK $16,500)

Contrarian #2: Michael Pittman, Jr. (FD $11,000, DK $13,500)

Contrarian #3: Mark Andrews (FD $12,000, DK $9,900)

There’s no question who the chalk play will be on Monday night this week, as Lamar Jackson is head and shoulders above the rest of the field in terms of pricing and upside. I may have one or two lineups that make use of Carson Wentz, but I’m not looking at the Colts B for my captain spot in any builds and would rather seek a pass catcher from Baltimore if I need to squeeze in some big playmakers. The Ravens DST is another possibility for DK, as they allow for smattering of options on both teams.

Colts notes: The two players I’m most interested in are Jonathan Taylor, who’s coming off his best game of 2021 and Michael Pittman, Jr., who has seen 32 targets and has 20 catches over his last three games. After that, I could find some bargain spots for Nyheim Hines — always a candidate to pop off in limited opportunities — and red zone targets Zach Pascal and Mo Alie-Cox.

Ravens notes: The Ravens can break the record for most consecutive 100-yard rushing games (43) as a team this week, as they’re tied with the mid-to-late 70s era Steelers. for that reason, I think we could see a few more carries for Latavius Murray this week but he’s far from the explosive runner that Jackson is and nowhere hear a priority for me. Mark Andrews has just as much upside in this offense and is cheaper, and the Colts will have a very difficult time containing Andrews and Marquise Brown, among others. James Proche is a cheap option but could be popular after his last game.

Week 5 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Go too heavy on the Colts DST, but use plenty of Baltimore’s high-upside DFS unit.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget about a sub-$1K Marlon Mack. You just never know when they are going to give him carries.

Now that we’ve established some Week 5 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Lamar Jackson
Jonathan Taylor
Marquise Brown
Mark Andrews
Ravens DST
Michael Pittman, Jr.
Latavius Murray
Carson Wentz
Zach Pascal
Sammy Watkins
Mo Alie-Cox
Nyheim Hines
Justin Tucker
James Proche
Jack Doyle
Ty’Son Williams
Ryan Blankenship
Parris Campbell
Devin Duvernay
Colts DST
Marlon Mack

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!

3 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports

DFS: Injury Report and Breakdown

4 years ago

written by

Today the DFS Injury Report and Breakdown will be a doozy as player health was hit hard in Week 14. To make matters worse, many of those players (i.e. D.J. Chark who is unlikely to be active this week) have been staples in DFS lineups for most of 2019.

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Yikes.

https://twitter.com/FFStudentDoc/status/1204594954636582912?s=20

Nevertheless, these injuries shake up the fade/play landscape which means new opportunities exist to gain leverage on the field. I’ll walk you through a brief-to-the-point injury analysis of each DFS relevant player injury, how it might affect their performance, and what to expect from them in Week 15. Later in the week, I’ll give updates on players who have a chance to return after extended absences such as JuJu Smith-Schuster, Adam Thielen, and James Conner. Note that all of the following prices are from DraftKings.

Mark Andrews ($8,400)

Andrews’ contusion situation is frustrating for DFS players as showdown slates are already super thin and difficult to navigate. Even though he’s trending in the right direction, Andrews being active and subsequently productive is no guarantee as contusions are extremely painful. To further complicate things, the Ravens have clinched a playoff berth and have nothing to play for, so why would they rush him back? The bottom line is that Andrews being active and productive is not a slam dunk, so monitor the inactive leading up to Thursday night and consider Hayden Hurst and/or Nick Boyle in tournament plays. If Andrews is active, he’s also a tournament play.

Ryan Griffin ($2,200)

Griffin falls into a group of usable tournament tight ends from week to week, so his injury isn’t exactly inconsequential. The short and long of it is this: don’t expect him to be active and if he is, don’t expect much production from him. He’s missed practice two days in a row now. Fade the entire Jets offense in this spot (except for Le’Veon Bell ($9,400) in tournaments).

Noah Fant ($4,100)

Speaking of not a slam dunk to play, Noah Fant injured his ankle on Sunday and reportedly now has significant bruising and pain. My hypotheses is that he suffered an eversion ankle sprain (the opposite direction of when you think of “rolling” your ankle) and is not a lock to suit up against Kansas City. Much like Mark Andrews, if Fant is active, he’s not guaranteed to produce as his ankle injuries make each step painful. Jeff Heuerman ($2,600), his backup, is a deep tournament play if Fant can’t go as the Chiefs are ranked in the bottom 10 in defending the tight end.

Jared Cook ($4,600)/DeVante Parker ($6,400)

Next on the DFS Injury Report and Breakdown are two players who suffered concussions last week. I’m grouping them together as neither of them has had more than one concussion previously. Cook has had only one other documented concussion in his career and Parker hasn’t had any. This matters because the medical literature tells us that only after the third concussion does symptoms of concussion and overall recovery time significantly stall. Parker and Cook should both be active and are smash cash plays against the lowly Colts and Giants secondaries respectively.

Update: Both Parker and Cook have practiced in a limited fashion as they make their way through the concussion protocol. What that means is that every day at practice a member of the medical staff re-evaluates them based on a series of tests and measures ranging from concentration to headaches and their ability to track moving objects with their eyes. As I mentioned before, Cook has only one concussion in his past and Parker has none. Unless there is something missing in their history, I’m relatively confident Parker is active and more confident Cook will be active as well given the extra day he has to recover. The flip side here is that neither are cash plays because there is risk for another concussion for both.

Jameis Winston ($6,900)

Winston has a hairline fracture in his thumb on his throwing hand. However, it’s a good sign that he re-entered the game in the second half, and it’s an even better sign that he threw three touchdowns following the injury. Even though the fracture is minor, pain/swelling/painful gripping is very much still in play for Winston this week making him a more volatile play than usual (which isn’t really saying much). Just keep in mind that if you start him, Ryan Griffin (the Bucs backup quarterback, not the Jets’ starting eight ends) taking over at some point mid-game is very much within the realm of possibilities. Winston is a cash fade for me this week, but I would consider sprinkling him into tournaments conservatively.

D.J. Chark ($6,200)

Chark was reportedly wearing a walking boot and using a push scooter. This is concerning because those scooters are reserved for dislocations and serious fractures. Now, some teams are pretty dramatic when it comes to protecting injuries, but I’m convinced that Chark’s injury is legitimate as he didn’t practice on Wednesday. The Jaguars entire organization is a dumpster fire right now and the quarterback situation volatile. However, somebody has to catch passes so Dede Westbrook ($4,600) is a cheap tournament play who has been averaging eight targets per game over the last four weeks.

Josh Jacobs ($7,00)

Josh Jacobs’ situation is one of the most bizarre injury situations of the 2019 season. Last week it was revealed that Jacobs has a fractured shoulder and he was inactive. However, for whatever reason the general consensus on Wednesday is that he’s a slam dunk to be active and productive. This is not the case (see my tweet below). As of now, Jacobs is still not a slam dunk to play as a running back needs to be able to take full and repeated contact without further damage. Follow me on twitter for updates on Jacobs. Regardless of his status, Jacobs is a very volatile cash game option this week as the matchup is very enticing.

Update: Jacobs continues to be limited in practice on Thursday and Gruden will not commit to him being active on Sunday. At this point Jacobs has a chance at playing but the Raiders will take it slow. With nothing left to play for in 2019 and as a centerpiece for the franchise moving forward, I would not be surprised if Jacobs sits this week as well to prevent further damage to the shoulder. I’ll be much more optimistic if he gets in a full contact practice in on Friday.

https://twitter.com/FFStudentDoc/status/1204861244471226371?s=20

Additions

James Conner

Conner is returning (again) from a sternoclavicular injury he originally suffered in Week Eight and then again in Week 11. He resumed full practice activity this week, but I’m not confident he can stay healthy. This injury is one that can be recurring as the stability of the joint itself is never the same. In other words, Conner is on my “prove it” list before using him in cash games. The risk of re-injury is still elevated for him.

T.Y. Hilton

Hilton began practicing again this week in a limited fashion which theoretically opens the door for him to play on Sunday. However, this recurring calf injury is one that is not going away as evidenced by his poor performance in Week 12 and subsequent inactive in Week 13 and 14. The calf muscle is crucial in pushing off of the ground to sprint and jump, making Hilton a fade in all formats even if he’s active. My hope is that the Colts sit him as a calf injury hypothetically increases the risk for an achilles rupture. There’s no reason to risk that at this point in the season for Indi.

Thank you for reading the DFS Injury Report and Breakdown. As I mentioned earlier, I’ll discuss players who have a chance to return from extended absences later this week (potentially even today). This is definitely a week in which you’ll want to keep up with my updates so, bookmark this page, check back periodically, and follow me on twitter here. Good luck!

THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.

Featured image courtesy of Merson.

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports

DFS: Injury Fades and Plays

Edwin Porras 4 years ago

written by Edwin Porras

Wow. The days leading up to Week 14 kick off have been full of injury drama and news revelations. I’ll touch on the Dalvin Cook saga, Josh Jacobs’ shoulder, Evan Engram’s dance with the practice report (and DFS players’ hearts) and other players’ status in this DFS Injury Fades and Plays. Note that the following prices are from FanDuel.

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Dalvin Cook ($8,700)

There is a good amount of confusion surrounding Cook’s situation, and many DFS players aren’t sure how to view him. It is a bit ridiculous that Cook suffered an injury severe enough to rule him out on Monday night, but is no longer on the practice report. Not only that but when the cameras panned to him and the trainers, it was evident Cook was having an emotional response to the injury indicating that it was extremely painful for him. My brief twitter conversation with Dr. Jesse Morse is below:

https://twitter.com/FFStudentDoc/status/1203085288358268928?s=20

Situations like this are exactly why injury analysts are crucial. Below I’ll outline possible outcomes involving Cook and Alexander Mattison ($5,100).

Dalvin Cook starts, plays approximately half of the snaps (he averages just around 75% normally) and sees about half of his touches. Mattison sees the other half but takes over the goal line/red zone opportunities to protect Cook’s SC joint and has the bigger day.
Cook and Mattison split touches, snaps, and fantasy points rendering each other usable options, but no ceiling for either.
Cook is “dummy active” and sees well below half the touches, Mattison takes the bulk of the work and has a big day against the Lions’ lowly rush defense.

Ultimately, this situation makes Cook a fade in cash, but at $5,100 Mattison warrants consideration in cash simply because any way you slice it, he’ll more than likely see an increased workload.

Josh Jacobs ($7,400)

Jacobs is not a cash option this week, period. He came out and admitted he has a fractured shoulder, which can help to explain his lack of passing game involvement if this has been a season-long injury. To make matters worse in DFS, he did not practice this week until a very limited session on Friday. He’s also a bit pricey against the middle of the road Titans and if the Raiders continue to give up points by the dozen, Jacobs can easily be game-scripted out. The only player I’m considering in this game is Ryan Tannehill ($7,300).

Le’Veon Bell ($7,300)

Bell missed Thursday and Friday practice with an illness, which is enough for me to completely fade him from a health perspective. We’ve been down this road with Tyler Lockett in Week 13 who followed the same pattern and saw a season-low in targets and snap share. Bell, if active, could be dealing with residual fatigue and dehydration that will cap his touches and production. Instead, I’m pivoting to the Miami passing game that has been on fire lately and is bolstered by the fact that star safety Jamal Adams has already been ruled out with an ankle injury.

The rest of the players in the DFS Injury Fades and Plays are tournament plays and only cash considerations for those who abide by the risk-it-biscuit ideology.

Darwin Thompson ($5,200)

Thompson is not a viable cash option but has a chance to be a slate breaker in tournaments. With the loss of Darrel Williams to the IR and Damien Williams still recovering from a ribs injury, Thompson vaults into the (basically) co-starter position alongside LeSean McCoy ($6,100). Given that the Chiefs signed perennial just-a-guy Spencer Ware, I expect Thompson to see enough work to warrant free square status this week against the Patriots.

David Njoku ($4,900)

Njoku should be completely healthy from a wrist fracture he suffered in Week Two and is a middle of the road option against the lowly Bengals defense this week. From a health perspective, he should be more than ready to go and given the injury should not have impacted his ability to aerobic conditioning, he could be another slate breaker at low ownership. The concern I have with Njoku is his quarterback, who has been a disappointment this year, to say the least. From a cash perspective, Njoku is still on my wait-and-see list, but I’ll be using him in tournaments this week given his opponent, projected ownership and low price tag.

Evan Engram

Engram (and Rhett Ellison) has officially been ruled out. Kaden Smith will be a chalky option against the Eagles in the showdown slates, but he’s a decent option considering the single-game slates are really more about ownership and being contrarian in different spots. Use Smith as a free square to differentiate yourself elsewhere. For example, Saquon Barkley could be low owned due to his recent lack of production. Stacking him with the ghost of the ghost of check down Eli Manning.

Thank you for reading my DFS Injury Fades and Plays for Week 14. If you have any questions don’t hesitate to find on Twitter or comment them down below. Good luck!

Photo courtesy of Ser Amantio di Nicola.

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 13 DFS RB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got your NFL Week 13 DFSplays – the best RBs to use in the main slate, as well as some contrarian picksto win you some major green in huge GPPs!

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Week 13 DFS RunningBack – Cash Game Plays

Christian McCaffrey, CAR vs. WAS

DK ($10,500) FD ($11,000)

McCaffrey scored another 30+ DK points last week and while the price came up on FD to $11K, he’s still affordable on both sites. At some point, you’d think the heavy volume would diminish, but it doesn’t. He’s a fine play at home versus Washington in Week 13.

Saquon Barkley, NYG vs. GB

DK ($7,400) FD ($7,600)

Barkley should be a featured weapon Sunday against the Packers (ina game that will be played in rainy weather) and should get a boatload ofcarriers and usage – the red zone included. Green Bay struggled to defend therun and while he’s far from the fantasy ceiling and floor of McCaffrey, he’s oneof the best cash game options we have, especially at the reduced price on FD.

Aaron Jones,GB at NYG

DK ($6,800) FD ($8,000)

Jones makes sense as a bargain cash gameplay on DK and has an excellent matchup in what should be a positive game script against the Giants. The weather could force the Packers to run the ball a lot more. I wouldn’t play both Barkley and Jones together, but both should get plenty of opportunities to produce.

Also consider:Le’Veon Bell, Jonathan Williams

Week 13 DFS RunningBack – GPP Plays

Josh Jacobs, OAK at KC

DK ($6,900) FD ($7,700)

The shoulder injury has kept him limited again this week, but he’sstill a GPP option facing the league’s worst defense against RBs. No need to overthinkthis – if he’s active and not seriously limited, he’s worth using in GPPs.

Derrick Henry, TEN at IND

DK ($7,600) FD ($8,600)

We’ll keep an eye on news about Henry (hamstring) over theweekend, but the questionable tag shouldn’t diminish our enthusiasm for him inGPPs – especially because he doesn’t have much competition for carries in theTitans offense. He’s got 347 rushing yards and four TDs over his last twogames.

Miles Sanders, PHI at MIA

DK ($5,400) FD ($5,800)

Jordan Howard could be back this week, but Miles Sanders stillmakes sense in GPPs. His speed and usage in all aspects of the Eagles offensecould see him flourish against a poor Miami defense. I wouldn’t recommend him incash games unless Howard is inactive, but he’s going to make many of my GPPbuilds regardless.

Also consider: Todd Gurley,Phillip Lindsay, Joe Mixon, Ronald Jones

Week 13 DFS RunningBack – Contrarian GPP Plays

Leonard Fournette, JAC vs.TB

DK ($7,300) FD($7,000)

It’s not a great matchup, but I’m also not convinced the Jags areready to get away from their current offensive style with Nick Foles undercenter. I expect them to try to grind out a win vs. the Bucs and do so with alot of shorter passes and plenty of involvement from Fournette.

Austin Ekeler, LAC at DEN

DK ($5,700) FD ($6,700)

Melvin Gordon has typically struggled against the Broncos, so wecould see a few more touches and targets for Ekeler in Week 13. He’s a muchbetter play on DK with the full-point PPR, and the upside is still there becauseof his big-play capability.

Also consider: Nick Chubb, MarkIngram, Tevin Coleman

Week 13 DFS RunningBack – Value/Punt Plays

LeSean McCoy, KC vs. OAK

DK ($4,800) FD ($5,800)

McCoy and Darrell Williams will shoulder the load for the Chiefswith Damien Williams looking unlikely to suit up this week. I like McCoy alittle better, but Darrel Dubs is seven cheaper at $4,400 on DK.

Derrius Guice, WAS at CAR

DK ($4,500) FD($5,400)

Guice has a favorable matchup vs. the Panthers (ranked 30th againstRBs), and he should probably receive more touches than Adrian Peterson. Ownershipin GPPs should be down and we could see a breakthrough performance for theembattled young back this week.

Additional plays: Darrel Williams, Jalen Richard (if Jacobs is out or limited)

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Let’s go with both RBs and a WR for this matchup in the rain. Both Saquon Barkley and Aaron Jones should see increased volume and Davante Adams if healthy) can round out our choices.

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 12 DFS RB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got your NFL Week 12 DFS plays – the best RBs to use in the main slate, as well as some contrarian picks to win you some major green in huge GPPs!

Sign up NOWfor WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chatsand more!

Week 12 DFS Running Back – Cash Game Plays

ChristianMcCaffrey, CAR at NO

DK ($10,500) FD ($10,500)

With at least 23 DK points in four straight games and averaging a massive 32.4 DK PPG, CMC is again top dog in all formats. I’m not going to bore you anymore with his resume at this point, and while the matchup is difficult compared to others he’s faced, it doesn’t freak me out enough to avoid him. Just lock the guy in and move on.

Nick Chubb, CLE vs. MIA

DK ($8,100) FD ($8,200)

If you can’t fit in McCaffrey in your cash lineups, thenshame on you. No, really, Chubb has some competition for touches now, but he’sanother back facing a poor opponent who could clean up this week and make his fantasyowners very happy. He’s hasn’t scored since Week 6, so he’s due.

Week 12 DFS Running Back – GPP Plays

Alvin Kamara, NO vs. CAR

DK ($8,200) FD ($8,300)

We nailed Kamara last week, and he was under 10 percent owned in large-field GPPs (9.58% in the DK Millionaire Maker). I’m smitten with how Kamara fits into the Saints offense and can break off enormous plays as opponents get distracted by the plodding style of Latavius Murray, the pass-catching ability of Michael Thomas and the multiple speed options (Ted Ginn, Taysom Hill) who complement Kamara’s soaring talent. He’s probably cash viable but is best deployed in GPPs.

Josh Jacobs, OAK at NYJ

DK ($7,400) FD ($8,000)

Jacobs is again nursing the same shoulder injury, but he’sa GPP darling this season, getting lots of work in all aspects of the Raiders’offense. Last week an underwhelming fantasy total, but he’s a better bet toreach paydirt in Week 12 and score 15-25 DK points.

Derrick Henry, TEN vs. JAC

DK ($6,900) FD ($8,400)

The Titans would like to win this division rivalry without throwing the ball a lot, as they grabbed a win over the Chiefs last week with Ryan Tannehill attempting fewer than 20 passes. Henry has a massive upside in this matchup and is one of the strongest runners in the game.

Leonard Fournette, JAC at TEN

DK ($7,300) FD ($7,000)

The other side of the Titans-Jags game features Fournette, who last week was a bit of a disappointment. For Week 12, Fournette’s price is down on both sites and he’s almost a bargain on FD. He’s not a high-profile name and he could go under-owned in GPPs after drawing just 4-5 percent ownership last week.

Joe Mixon, CIN vs. PIT

DK ($5,900) FD ($6,700)

The Bengals are bad, but Mixon has 200 rushing yards and 45 carries over his last two games. He’s the focal point of this offense and the Steelers are a team in turmoil, so I’ll be locking this bell-cow into about 20-25 percent of my GPPs and hopefully staying ahead of the field.

Also consider: Le’Veon Bell, Jaylen Samuels, James White, David Montgomery

Week 12 DFS Running Back – Contrarian GPP Plays

Ezekiel Elliot, DAL at NE

DK ($7,500) FD ($8,100)

This could get interesting. Ezekiel’s ownership was at 14.06% in the Millionaire Maker last week, and he reached 20 DK points, but this week against a much tougher opponent (the Patriots allow the fewest points to fantasy RBs), that ownership level should plummet, even though he still has plenty of upsides and the price has come way down. He could be a sneaky play in GPPs.

Devin Singletary, BUF vs. DEN

DK ($5,400) FD ($6,300)

The Bills’continued reliance on Frank Gore (11 rushing attempts last game) keepsSingletary from getting the 20 attempts he’ll likely need to break through intoGPP stardom, but the Broncos are average against the run and Singletary is atalented back with upside – and probably some relatively low ownership this week.

Also consider: Saquon Barkley, Chris Carson, Phillip Lindsay

Week 12 DFS Running Back – Value/Punt Plays

Miles Sanders, PHI vs. SEA

DK ($5,000) FD ($5,600)

Sanders is a talented back and Jordan Howard hasn’t yet beencleared for contact. With the rookie getting the bulk of work out of the Phillybackfield and having such enormous upside based on his speed and shiftiness, I’lltake the chance against the Seahawks in some GPPs.

Sony Michel, NE vs. DAL

DK ($4,900) FD ($6,300)

Michel is still just too cheap on DK and had 10 carries and four targets last week. I expect the Patriots to use him a little more this week against the Cowboys – who are more susceptible to straight-line power runners – making him a fine value play in Week 12.

Tarik Cohen, CHI vs. NYG

DK ($4,800) FD ($5,700)

Cohen saw an uptick in usage last week and could get more workin Week 12. He’s scored receiving TDs in two straight and could make it a thirdagainst this dubious Giants defensive unit.

Derrius Guice, WAS vs. DET

DK ($4,700) FD ($5,400)

Guice has an excellent matchup and big-play upside, so he’son my list for Week 12 GPP value plays. This team is still committed to giving AdrianPeterson touches, but Guice is cheaper and probably the better back.

Kalen Ballage, MIA at CLE

DK ($4,400) FD ($5,500)

Ballage remains cheap, but his upside is limited,especially against an improving Browns defensive unit. But with Mark Waltondone with football for the foreseeable future, the volume could mean viability onDK.

Additional plays: Ronald Jones, J.D. McKissic, Latavius Murray

Monkey Knife Fight Picks of the Week

Goal: 78.5, Prize: 3x

Christian McCaffrey, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara are my picks (two RBs and a WR) for notching the most fantasy points in this Week 12 matchup. Let’s go big for 3x since they all catch passes, they can all score multiple TDs and go over 150 total yards and offer monster upside.

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 10 DFS RB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

Richard Masana 4 years ago

written by Richard Masana

We’ve got your NFL Week 10 DFS plays – the best RB picks for the main slate, including cash, GPP and some contrarian recommendations to win you some green!

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Week 10 DFS Running Back – Cash Game Plays

ChristianMcCaffrey, CAR atGB

DK ($10,500) FD ($10,500)

The Panthers have been limiting McCaffrey’s practiceworkload, but the stud RB’s Week 10 status is not in doubt following a coupleof maintenance days. Fantasy’s No. 1 running back in every aspect, he has a favorablematchup facing a Packers defense that’s been a sieve to running back production.Lock this man in for your cash games and any other formats you see fit.

Saquon Barkley, NYG at NYJ

DK ($8,800) FD ($8,600)

Barkley gets a great matchup vs. the Jets (who allow 18-20fantasy points to RBs, on average) and remains the consensus No. 1 or 2 fantasyRB heading into Week 10. He’s involved in the entire offense and sees upwardsof 8-10 targets each week – making him a lock for double-digit production evenwithout the running game clicking.

Derrick Henry, TEN vs. KC

DK ($6,400) FD ($7,000)

If you’re averse to spending top dollar at both RB spots incash, Henry offers a considerable discount from the aforementioned backs andhas nearly as much upside against a Chiefs defense that’s among the worst inthe NFL at defending RBs.

Week 10 DFS Running Back – GPP Plays

Alvin Kamara, NO vs. ATL

DK ($8,200) FD ($8,300)

Saints head coach Sean Payton had already noted that Kamara would return following his two-game absence, but on Thursday the electric RB practiced in full, putting him higher on my list of GPP plays for Week 10. Latavius Murray will still get work and his excellent performance in Kamara’s stead, and has earned a touch more standalone work, but Kamara is a special player who can take over a game and should eviscerate the Falcons defense. He won’t see the ownership of Barkley or McCaffrey, making him a better tournament play in Saints stacks with Drew Brees and Michael Thomas.

Mark Ingram, BAL at CIN

DK ($7,100) FD ($8,000)

Ingram is one of many options for the Ravens who could blowup in this game, so I’m not too high on him for cash games, but he makes an excellentGPP play because of the opponent (theBengals rank around the third-worst in terms of passing and running defenseDVOA), and his ability to run for over 100 yards. I won’t be at fullexposure, but I should be ahead of the field.

David Montgomery, CHI vs. DET

DK ($5,300) FD ($6,400)

Montgomery is finally having the type of production we expectedhim to earlier in the season, in part because Matt Nagy is using him properly. Montgomery has seen 48 touches over the last two gamesand has now totaled 16 or more touches in five of the last seven games. That workhorserole means his favorable matchup with the Lions means he’s a lock for top 10-15fantasy production, with Top 5 upside. He’s part of my core plays at RB in GPPs,even though he might get chalky.

Marlon Mack, IND vs. MIA

DK ($7,000) FD ($7,400)

Mack makes for a great GPP ply against a poor opponent thisweek, and we could expect maybe a little lower ownership because of the high price.Without the cake matchup, he wouldn’t have nearly as much upside as the playershe’s priced alongside, but the Dolphins yield the most points to fantasy RBsand the Colts should be more ground-focused if it’s Brian Hoyer under center.

Also consider: DeVonta Freeman, Jaylen Samuels, Jamaal Williams, Damien Williams

Week 10 DFS Running Back – Contrarian GPP Plays

Le’Veon Bell, NYJ vs. NYG

DK ($6,900) FD ($6,900)

TheGiants run defense is getting better, but they still have major issues. TheJets do too, but I think we’re in the clear with Bell moving forward, as the tradedeadline has come and gone and he’s the best man for the job despite his 3.3YPC this season. He had a brief injury scare at the beginning of the week, butthe MRI revealed nothing significant and he’s supposed to go on Sunday. Staytuned, but consider him as a contrarian play with plenty of upside on bothsites.

David Johnson, ARI at TB

DK ($5,700) FD ($6,800)

Johnson presents as a very high risk, moderate-to-high rewardand I can’t imagine he’ll be on everybody’s list of top plays, so most will beunderweight on him. So if you’re trying to take down a large-field GPP, he’s wortha look as a low-owned option with plenty of upside. The Bucs have the NFL’stop-ranked run defense, but the Cards spread the field and run the football, soexpect some plays drawn up for Johnson to get some easy completions from KylerMurray and rack up the points. A much safer play on DK because of the full-PPRand nicer price.

Nick Chubb, CLE vs. BUF

DK ($7,000) FD ($8,100)

After a relatively disappointing week at Denver, Chubb could be off the radar for most owners, especially with Kareem Hunt finally available as a change of pace back. He has a tough matchup, but after seeing him rush for 131 yards on 20 carries against the Patriots, I think his results depend more on game flow, big plays and goal line opportunities. The Bills defense hasn’t been wonderful the past couple of weeks and has shown itself to be more vulnerable against the run. If the Browns don’t get behind by multiple TDs, we could see heavy doses of Chubb and enough production to warrant his usage in some GPPs.

Also consider: Todd Gurley, Joe Mixon, Ty Johnson

Week 10 DFS Running Back – Value/Punt Plays

Devin Singletary, BUF at CLE

DK ($5,000) FD ($6,700)

The rookie RB is coming into his own, with scores inconsecutive weeks and a season-high 20 carries vs. Washington in Week 9. He’sone of the best value plays of the slate and makes sense as a flex play in cashgames and one of your core plays in GPPs.

J.D. McKissic, DET

DK ($4,300) FD ($5,600)

He’s an option because he outperformed Ty Johnson last weekand could be seeing a larger workload against the Bears. There’s plenty of riskin this matchup, but McKissic gained 32 yards on just four carries in Week 9and should have the requisite opportunities to make an impact as a pass-catcher.

Kalen Ballage, MIA at IND

DK ($3,800) FD ($4,600)

With Miami’s Bad Boy (teammate Mark Walton) slated to servea four-game suspension, the enigmatic and dynamic Ballage figures to see anexpanded role in Dolphins offense. It’s a team – as a whole – that doesn’talways allow for the most favorable game flows and a commitment to the running game,but Ballage is cheap and has given us monster games before. He’s in a spot todominate the touches in the backfield in Week 10.

Additional plays: Giovani Bernard, Kareem Hunt

Monkey Knife Fight Picks of the Week

Pick the Players what will get the most Fantasy Points

Goal: 54.5, Prize: 2x

Saquon Barkley, Le’Veon Bell and Golden Tate

Going with the RB theme, we can start both RBs in the Giants-Jets game, as both should have plenty of opportunities ion both the running and passing game on Sunday. Pairing them with PPR maven WR Golden Tate could help you get 2x or more on your bet.

4 years ago 0 comment

NFL

DFS: Injury Breakdown- Fade or Play?

Edwin Porras 4 years ago

written by Edwin Porras

This week in the DFS Injury Breakdown, I’ll give you a few injuries to monitor with me and whether these players are a fade or a play in DFS. There are several ambiguous and non-specific injuries that could play a role in certain players’ production, so let’s get started. Note that all of the player prices below are based on FanDuel.

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Evan Engram ($6,400)

Engram is dealing with a somewhat mysterious foot injury that he picked up on Monday night against the Cowboys. He had an MRI this week that is now being sent to Dr. Robert Anderson for a second opinion, which means he did not like the first opinion he received from the team’s staff. His injury is worth mentioning here because if he can’t go against the Jets, Rhett Ellison ($2,500) immediately becomes a free square in cash games on Sunday. Even if Engram is active (which I don’t expect as of now), Ellison might still be tournament play.

Le’Veon Bell ($6,900)

Bell is another player dealing with a mystery injury, this time to his knee. He underwent an MRI on Monday (as the Jets strangely hand these out as “precautionary”) but as of today, nothing remarkable has been reported. Bell, who has a history of knee instability issues is at risk for, at the very least, a reduced workload on Sunday following his best fantasy performance since Week Two. He’s a cash game fade for me as of Wednesday, and if he’s out, I would consider using Bilal Powell ($4,500) in tournaments as he has now taken over as the second running back in that backfield (Ty Montgomery has not touched the ball in two consecutive games).

Alvin Kamara ($8,300)

Kamara is a smash play in cash games despite the fact that he has not played since Week Six as he was dealing with a high ankle sprain and an MCL sprain. Since then, he has had plenty of time to get healthy and should be active on Sunday. This mouthwatering matchup against the Falcons is just what the doctor ordered for DFS players. Use Kamara confidently from an injury perspective.

James Conner ($7,100)

Conner isn’t likely to be active this week as I read in between the lines of this AC sprain. I’ve said since the injury occurred in the closing minutes of Week Eight that Conner could miss up to four weeks. That makes Jaylen Samuels another automatic play this week due to sheer volume. Last week Samuels had 13, count them, thirteen, targets and caught them all. If Conner is inactive, expect that type of production again from Samuels as the Rams are not shy about scoring points.

Jacoby Brissett ($7,600)

Brissett was very fortunate to exit Week Nine with a minor MCL sprain and his ACL intact. The shot that he took to his left knee was actually friendly fire as his own offensive linemen rolled up on him. You can watch the injury (with my prediction) on Twitter. Overall, Brissett has a 50/50 shot to play on Sunday. MCL sprains are extremely painful and other than light exercise, there’s not much players can do to help stabilize the knee as braces aren’t truly effective. Check back with me to see if you should play Brian Hoyer ($7,100) against the no-longer-in-last-place Miami Dolphins.

Thank you for reading the DFS Injury Breakdown. I hope I was able to provide some midweek injury context to help make those play or fade decisions. Check back with me for more updates as practice reports roll in!

Featured image courtesy of LaDanian1000000.

4 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS Cash Games – Week Six Checkdown

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

Week Five was absolutely insane for both NFL DFS Cash Games and GPPs. I usually try to build a cash lineup that can score around 150 points and am confident I’ll hit the pay-line. In Week Five, you needed 200 or more points to cash… WOW! Feel free to review last week’s Checkdown to see what players we were high on, including a ridiculous eight wide receiver plays that all blew it out of the water. Let’s get right back to it for the Week Six Checkdown for your NFL DFS Cash Games.

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My articles will be mainly meant for DraftKings, but you can certainly use this information for other DFS websites. Please check back in on Saturday/Sunday morning for potential NFL DFS Cash Games updates.

If you have any questions and would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. I’m always available to help NFL DFS players make the most of their investments.

Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week Six, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

I don’t anticipate there being any crazy chalky players that you have to roster in cash games this week, but there is very little “value” on the slate thus far.
Contrary to Week Five where I instructed DFS players to pay up for multiple stud running backs, Week Six looks like we can only afford to roster one “top-tier” running back. EDIT: If you pay down to Rosen, you can definitely lock in two stud RBs.
Just like Week Five, there are a lot of great plays at the wide receiver position – I don’t think you have to focus on any one player here when building your cash lineups.
Unless you have a very high-floor build at the RB/WR positions, it’s going to be nearly impossible to pay down at tight end.

NFL DFS Cash Games Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($7,500) – Keep an eye on his health but if he’s playing, Mahomes is always cash viable.
Deshaun Watson ($6,700) – Holy Watson! Watson is coming off of perhaps the greatest game of his NFL career (426 passing yards, five touchdowns, and 47 rushing yards) and is set to ride that momentum into Kansas City for a matchup that has the highest total on the slate.

When Watson has time to make plays, he makes them – it’s as simple as that. The Chiefs’ defense currently ranks towards the bottom of the league in pass rushing and overall defense as a whole… having time to make plays will not be an issue. Kansas City is going to put up points on this Houston defense, so the gamescript is going to be in our favor if we are rostering DeShaun Watson and the Houston passing attack.
Kyler Murray ($6,500) – This season has been an absolute disaster for the Falcons’ pass defense. Murray is averaging 21.5 DraftKings points per week and should easily exceed that average again in Week Six. David Johnson is having back issues, so if the Cardinals want to compete for their second win of the season, they’re going to need a big outing from Kyler Murray.

Matt Ryan ($6,400) on the other side is also cash viable, but I prefer Kyler Murray with the minimal price difference.
Kirk Cousins ($5,200) – The whole “squeaky wheel” scenario we had in Week Five with the Minnesota Vikings and their lack of getting their star wideouts involved was quickly addressed last Sunday. Cousins and the Vikings’ pass offense had their best outing of the season in Week Five and will need to go a bit pass-heavy again this week when they host the Eagles.
Gardner Minshew ($5,000) is worth consideration as well as Josh Rosen ($4,500). Rosen is way too cheap for a great matchup against Washington. He should be able to get to 15+ points and allow you to pay up all over the slate.

NFL DFS Cash Games Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott ($8,500) – The Cowboys need to make a statement after back-to-back losses in Weeks Four and Five. My early projections have Elliott finally topping the 25-point mark for PPR leagues this season and I think that can be his floor this week against the Jets.
Dalvin Cook ($8,400) – I prefer Elliott at this top-tier running back spot in Week Six, but Dalvin will always be mentioned in this writeup for the foreseeable future. The volume will always be there for Dalvin Cook.
Alvin Kamara ($8,000) – The Jaguars have been brutal against the run in terms of DVOA. Kamara will get 20+ touches no matter what happens in this game.
Nick Chubb ($7,300) – Volume, volume, volume. Chubb is consistently getting 20+ touches for the Cleveland Browns and he is one of the most talented backs in the NFL. We need to buy-in as much as we can before he is priced up with guys like Elliott, McCaffrey, and Cook.
The Seahawks have a stout run defense but they are traveling across the country to Cleveland this week and I will always weigh talent and volume higher than I do match-ups. Chris Carson ($6,000), on the other side of this game, is also a solid cash option as well.
Leonard Fournette ($6,700) – Don’t love the matchup, but volume and talent with this price is enough to heavily consider Fournette. He keeps producing at an extremely high level and will get another 25+ touches.
Mark Ingram ($6,600) – Ingram and the Ravens’ are a 12-point home favorite against the Bengals. I will always target a talented running back at home as a double-digit favorite. Please note, this is not an optimal price for a running back that isn’t very active in the passing game, so we’re banking on 100+ yards and at least one touchdown – which is entirely feasible versus the Bengals.
Le’Veon Bell ($6,400) – Bell is literally all the Jets have on offense right now. His ability to do damage in the passing game makes him gamescript proof. If you’re looking for a somewhat “value” running back play for an affordable price, go with Le’Veon Bell in your NFL DFS Cash Games.

I know Bell doesn’t have the supporting cast that Aaron Jones does, but this Cowboys defense looked lost last week against a Packers team who didn’t have their best player suited up.
Carlos Hyde ($4,400) – The Kansas City Chiefs’ run defense ranks dead last in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus. Although this running situation is a bit of a timeshare in Houston, Hyde will get the majority of the meaningful rushes for the Texans in Week Six. I have him projected for 82 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. At the price, the expected production should be more than enough to cash in NFL DFS Cash Games.

Wide Receivers

Julio Jones ($8,000) – Julio Jones has been quiet over the past two weeks and that is about to change in Week Six. He is my top play on the board at the receiver position and I’m assuming a lot of DFS players are going to fade him (in comparison to the usual ownership we see Julio Jones get).
Michael Thomas ($7,800) – Always cash viable and will see a lot of Tre Herndon on the left side of the field… I like that. Pace is a concern, but the volume will be there.
DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400) – Hopkins hasn’t been the fantasy producer we’ve seen in years past, but the targets, talent, and opportunities are there on a weekly basis. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week One so I’m betting on positive regression here. Hopkins will get in the box this week.
~~Cooper Kupp ($7,100) –~~ Not much to say about Cooper Kupp… he produces at an incredible level week in, week out. 49ers’ slot cornerback, K’Waun Williams has been solid this season, but I’ll take my chances on Kupp and the Rams’ passing attack until Kupp’s production says otherwise. I don’t love this price at all and would rather pivot down to Amari Cooper.
Amari Cooper ($7,000) – Only concern here is game flow. Absolute smash spot against Trumaine Johnson and Darryl Roberts. Lock him in!
Adam Thielen ($6,700) – Welcome back, Adam Thielen! I mentioned earlier how I like Kirk Cousins and the Vikings’ pass game this week, so we obviously like Adam Thielen. If the Giants found a way to keep last week’s game close, Thielen would have ended up with ~15 targets. I’m confident Thielen will continue to produce at a high level in games that are competitive.
Larry Fitzgerald ($6,100) – I don’t love his ceiling, but this matchup at home against the Falcons with a 52-point total is a perfect spot for Larry Fitzgerald and Kyler Murray to have a field day.
Dede Westbrook ($5,100) – Our weekly pick-on P.J. Williams writeup… Dede has put up double-digit DraftKings points in each of the last three weeks and will do so again this week. I don’t think this game against the Saints will be played at a high-pace but if it does, we could see a 20-point outing for Westbrook.
Courtland Sutton ($5,000) – Hopefully everyone bought into Courtland Sutton after last week’s writeup! This dude is legit and still completely underpriced. I called his touchdown last week and will call another one in Week Six. Sutton is an excellent value play on a slate that doesn’t offer many. Emmanuel Sanders ($4,800) is in an excellent spot lining up on the right side of the field and in the slot against Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan.
~~Mohamed Sanu ($4,500) –~~ Just like last week, Sanu is the perfect definition of “cheap exposure to a high-total game”. He paid off for us in Week Five and will do so again in Week Six. I think his ceiling will be limited a bit with guys like Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, and Austin Hooper all on the field with him for the majority of the snaps, but Sanu can get 15+ points. Just stick with Julio Jones or Hooper in cash.
Preston Williams ($4,100) – If you need a punt play, Preston Williams is your guy. No one on this Washington secondary can contain him but we have to bank on Josh Rosen to get Williams the ball in positions where he can succeed… which sounds a bit risky for cash games.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,000) – If you can afford him, play him. He is by far my number one tight end in Week Six (which will be the case on most weeks).
Zach Ertz ($5,400) – Why did his price drop from $6,000 to $5,400? Ertz is the main weapon in the Eagles’ offense and should be heavily considered at this price for NFL DFS Cash Games.
George Kittle ($5,200) – Will Dissly just put up 81 yards against this Rams’ defense but the Rams aren’t usually a team I target when rostering tight ends. Having said that, at this price… Kittle is 100% in play for your cash lineups.
Austin Hooper ($5,000) – Hooper is one of the most targeted tight ends in the NFL in 2019. Dirk Koetter continues to feature Hooper in the Falcons’ passing scheme and he happens to be going against Arizona defense who we will always target. Arizona is letting up the most points to opposing tight ends.
Noah Fant ($2,900) – Fant is the only punt play I can recommend at the moment. If something pops up during my research throughout the week, I’ll be sure to make updates. Unless you have a nasty lineup that is only possible via punting the position, you have to pay up for one of the above tight ends this week.

Defense/Special Teams

Dallas Cowboys ($4,300)
Baltimore Ravens ($4,100)
Denver Broncos ($3,100)
Jacksonville Jaguars ($2,200)
New York Jets ($1,500) – DraftKings finally adjusting the DST pricing… This is a free square, just pray they get a few sacks and don’t give up 30+ points.

NFL DFS Cash Games – Sample Lineup

QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Ezekiel Elliott
RB: Carlos Hyde
WR: DeAndre Hopkins
WR: Larry Fitzgerald
WR: Preston Williams
TE: Austin Hooper
FLEX: Le’Veon Bell
DST: New York Jets

5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports

DFS: Week Four Injury Breakdown

5 years ago

written by

Week Four is going to be your winning week. Week Two was riddled with unexpected injuries for several players. Then last Sunday we saw Saquon Barkley, an anchor in many lineups, go down early in the game with a high-ankle sprain. However, you’re already trending in the right direction by reading my Week Four Injury Breakdown

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Week Four is going to be your week.

This week, it seems that there are several players who are injured, yet expected to play. I’ll give you my clinical thoughts on their injury risk.

Without further ado, here are the DFS Week Four Injury Breakdowns to help you optimize your lineups in Week Four.

Julian Edelman

Edelman is at the top of the list of players who is a yellow light for me this week. It’s hard to deny his impact on the field as Tom Brady’s number one target, but he’s dealing with sore ribs, which can make it painful to breathe, let alone play in an NFL game. Additionally, the Patriots are capable of winning several different ways, including with Edelman acting as a decoy. Or with James White catching nine balls out of the backfield. Or with Rex Burkhead scoring three touchdowns from the slot. You catch my drift. The bottom line is that Edelman is a relative risk this week due to his injury and if you decide to put him in lineups, you’ll have to be okay with a wide range of outcomes. At the very least, avoid him in cash games.

T.Y. Hilton

Hilton was pulled during Week Three mid-game for a quad tear. And make no mistake, muscle strains are muscle tears. He was coerced off the field by the medical staff as he was evidently playing through some serious pain. Fast forward to this week and he has yet to practice and already declared a game time decision. I faded him last week, and he performed through the injury. However, given the fact that he’s still limited, I’m not budging and he won’t be in any of my DFS lineups this week, cash or tournaments.

Calvin Ridley and Chris Godwin

I’m lumping these two together as both are receivers, both have mysterious hip injuries, both were limited in practice this week, and both have tough matchups on Sunday. The Falcons take on the 12th ranked DVOA Titans and the Buccaneers will face the fourth ranked DVOA Rams.

Yikes.

I’m fading Ridley altogether as that offense has looked less than stellar as is, but Godwin I’m willing to plug into tournament lineups if he plays as the total for that game is around 50 points. Add in that the masses will be on Mike Evans after a monster game last week and that gives the potential for a profitable Godwin pivot.

Mark Andrews

Andrews was a game time decision last week, but after watching him on film, I’m not concerned about his foot injury. Additionally, he practiced on Friday which is an upgrade compared to last week. The most important part? He’s telling reporters that his injury is improving. I’m bullish on Andrews this week as the Browns, since Week One, have ceded a 5-55-2 line to 35 year old Delanie Walker, a 10-61 receiving line to Le’Veon Bell, and north of 250 total receiving yards to the Rams just last week. The masses might be scared away by Andrews’ designation and poor performance from Week Three, but I’m willing to roll with him again. If he underwhelms, it likely won’t be due to injury.

Amari Cooper

Cooper had a “precautionary MRI” on his ankle this week, which is concerning in the long term. However, he is expected to suit up on Sunday against a Saints defense that ranks 28th in DVOA. I’m using Cooper in lineups (this week in the Showdown slates) until the wheels fall off, which I hope doesn’t actually happen. He has not entered the dreaded “avoided him in cash games” category for me due to this injury, but I’m afraid that might be the case sooner rather than later as this mysterious injury (that is clearly more than plantar fasciitis) continues to linger. In Week Four, confidently use him as a captain.

Terry McLaurin

Scary Terry has been a revelation this year coming out of Ohio State. He’s the primary source of offense for Washington, but he was held out of practice due to a hamstring strain. Allegedly this is a precaution, but any time a player has an injury in the middle of the week, it’s a bad sign. Especially considering this is a soft tissue strain. I’m fading McLaurin. I can live with him having a big day against the Giants.

LeSean McCoy

Last week Shady and T.Y. Hilton teamed up to make me look extremely bad as I was fading both of them completely on Sunday. Even though they performed well, they were both pulled mid-game due to their injuries, so I’ll consider the final outcome a push. McCoy is dealing with what I perceive to be a high-ankle issue that simply didn’t show up on the MRI. He continues to be limited in practice this week after clearly playing hurt on Sunday. I have a hard time believing his ankle is any better this week, but clearly he can be effective even while hobbled. Ultimately, Shady is definitely a fade in cash games. Personally, I’m avoiding him altogether, but I would understand if you were to slide him into a small share of tournaments as he’s the best goal line back on that team.

Devin Singletary

The final player on the DFS Week Four Injury Breakdowns list is Devin Singletary. Singletary practiced for the first time in more than a week on Friday, and is officially designated as questionable for Sunday. Singletary is in a tough spot coming back from a significant hamstring strain and now facing a stingy New England defense. The only upside here is that the Patriots are favored and Singletary is the de facto pass catching back for the Bills. As a result, I’m fading Singletary due to his long lay-off and the matchup.

Those are the DFS Week Four Injury Breakdowns. Make sure to follow me on Twitter @FFStudentDoc for constant injury updates and look out for my final injury outlook on Sunday morning. Remember, this is your week! Good luck.

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5 years ago 0 comment

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