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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 9/25 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s nine-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No weather that will likely impact play, and best hitting environments are in Baltimore, Cincinnati, Coors Field and Anaheim.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Corbin Burnes ($11,100)

He’s the top ace of the day with a fine matchup against the Mets, and will likely be the most popular for cash games. With an obnoxious, almost unheard-of 1.58 FIP and 2.34 ERA in line with his 2.31 XFIP, Burnes is having a historic season. His 12.59 K/9 is amazing, but it’s even more implausible when we consider the 1.82 BB/9 rate. The Mets just got flummoxed by Eric Lauer last night, and now they face a pitcher with a curveball/cutter combo that’s among the best we’ve seen over the past 20 years. Lock him into cash lineups and move on.

Best GPP Play: Robbie Ray ($10,800)

Ray has had two poor starts among his last three, but his regularity in the 45-70 point range this season means he’s the best GPP play on the board against the Twins in Minnesota. We could see some portion of the field move to Burnes given the recency bias of Ray’s last start. The Toronto ace shouldn’t have too many problems with the righty-heavy Twins lineup, and although they hit fastballs well, Ray’s is among the best in baseball. Adam Strangis goes through some of the same rationales in his excellent Starting Rotation article for 9/25, and while that mainly looks at DK pricing, the thought process only affirms itself even more on FD, where you have to choose one pitcher. Ray is the best GPP option considering price and upside.

Contrarian GPP Play: Lance Lynn ($10,000)

He’s a contrarian play based on the other two pitcher I’ve discussed, so if you really want to get different I don’t have a problem with using Lynn in large-field GPPs. For single entry I’d prefer both Burnes and Ray, but Lynn does have some upside in this matchup vs. Cleveland and still boasts ands nice 30-35 point floor because of his solid metrics (3.26 FIP and 27.8% K rate). The mases won’t be on him, so maybe he’s a good pivot in one-third to half your multi-entry lineups.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: San Francisco Giants

If we can fit these guys, I think today is one of the days we have to play them. Brandon Crawford ($3,900), LaMonte Wade, Jr. ($3,800), Tommy La Stella ($3,600), Brandon Belt ($4,300) and Kris Bryant ($4,300) and Evan Longoria ($3,700) are not cheap, but I’m hoping we can find a way to get a full four-man stack in there with a couple of value plays from the Reds and a two more (one-offs or two-man mini stack). , Mike Yastrzemski ($3,800) is day-to-day after being removed from Friday’s contest with knee soreness, so keep an eye on who starts in the outfield. We may find a player like Alex Dickerson ($2,500) in a good spot at a reduced salary.

GPP Value Stack: Cincinnati Reds

This just feels like a Reds day facing Erick Fedde, and they’ve got good hitting weather, a hittable pitcher, and a lineup peppered with enough value plays that will let us spend at SP without much discomfort. I’m looking at four-man combinations of the following hitters: Joey Votto ($4,100), Nick Castellanos ($3,800), Max Schrock ($2,100), Jonathan India ($3,500), Tucker Barnhart ($2,200), Kyle Farmer ($3,300) and T.J. Friedl ($2,100). And that’s in order of priority.

GPP Value Stack #2: Seattle Mariners

Angels SP Jaime Barria has an xFIP over 5.00, and we have a slew of relatively inexpensive hitters from both sides of the plate who match up well in this spot. Prioritize the 1-5 hitters, especially J.P. Crawford ($3,000), Ty France ($3,000) and Mitch Haniger ($3,600) and mix in guys like Jake Fraley ($2,000) and Abraham Toro ($2,400) if you’re tight on salary.

Bonus Contrarian Stacks: Chicago White Sox, Baltimore Orioles

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 9/18 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s eight-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No heavy rain in the forecast tonight, but there are a few light showers in the San Francisco area for Braves-Giants. Nothing that should keep us off the game.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Corbin Burnes ($11,200)

Burnes is coming off an 8.0 IP, 14 K (and no-hit) masterpiece in Cleveland on Sept. 11 where he racked up 76 FD points. The only thing that gives me pause is the fact that after a 15 K game against this Cubs team on Aug. 11, he only recorded 3 Ks in his next outing versus the Cards. But that’s nitpicking. He’s the best arm of the slate with the highest floor and ceiling, and it’s not particularly close. Unless he gets lit up, he’s probably looking at a 40-point floor and 70-point upside again.

Best GPP Value: Lance McCullers ($9,900)

I think we probably need to find a way to fit Burnes into most of our GPP builds tonight as well, but McCullers in a home matchup against the Diamondbacks does offer some opportunity for salary relief with about 75-80% of the upside that the Milwaukee hurler does. The biggest knock against him tonight is the fact that Lance isn’t great against lefties, and Arizona (a high strikeout team for sure) could roll out up to seven against McCullers in this game. Still — there are not any really cheap options on this slate that don’t involve massive risk, so I think the best bet is still using a top arm and finding value in the bats.

Contrarian GPP Play: Lance Lynn ($10,300)

Lynn is the only other pitcher on the slate with 65-70 points upside, but it’s ben a while since we’ve seen that kind of dominance out of the right-hander. The appeal here is the tasty matchup facing the Rangers, a small cost savings from Burnes and lower projected ownership, but I’m not sure that sacrificing the upside and floor is worth rolling him out in any more than one or two GPP lineups out of 10. McCullers and Lynn project for similar outcomes tonight.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Houston Astros

It’ll be damn near impossible to afford the top bats (Jose Altuve at $4,200, Alex Bregman at $4,300 and Yordan Alvarez at $4,000) from Houston tonight in lineups that lock in Burnes, but if we grab some value bats from the bottom of this potent lineup, we can get a piece of this high projected run total (5.7) and still get exposure. I’m looking primarily at righty killers Kyle Tucker ($3,900) and Yuri Gurriel ($3,300) with Jose Siri ($2,700) and Jake Meyers ($2,400). Chas McCormick ($2,400) is obviously also an option if one of the other OF sits.

GPP Value Stack: Los Angeles Angels

Attacking objectively bad sinkerballer Daulton Jeffries, who is starting for the A’s, is where we can find the necessary firepower to build a winning lineup. If we start out our FD builds with Burnes and sinker destroyer extraordinaire Shohei Ohtani ($4,400), we have $2,771 per remaining hitter left in salary. This leaves us with the value options in the aforementioned stack and guys like Brandon Marsh ($2,400), Darrin Fletcher ($2,600), Max Stassi ($2,400), Jared Walsh ($3,000) and Luis Rengifo ($2,300) — who hits sinkers particularly well, as Adam Strangis points out in his MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.18 article.

GPP Stack #2: Oakland Athletics

If we’re grabbing some Angels, there’s no reason we can’t get some of the other side of this matchup as well, as the Athletics offer some excellent value options in their lineup facing lefty Jose Suarez. Those bargain bats include 2B/3B/UTIL eligible leadoff man Josh Harrison ($2,900), Chad Pinder ($2,200), Yan Gomes ($2,600) (or Sean Murphy at $2,100) and Khris Davis ($2,100). If there’s room for Mark Canha ($3,200), Starling Marte ($3,800) and Matt Olson ($4,200), that’s great — we could even mix and match and exclusively game stack OAK-LAA — avoiding the chalky Houston bats altogether in some of our GPPs.

Bonus Contrarian Stacks: Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 6/19 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s seven-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:15PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The rain from Tropical Storm Claudette is seriously threatening to PPD the Braves-Cards game, so we’ll leave that off our list of targets. The rest of the games have just a few possible delays sprinkled in, so just keep an eye on SP for those games.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Framber Valdez ($10,200)

I’m not all that enamored with Walker Buehler’s strikeout numbers this season, and Lance Lynn is squaring up against an Astros lineup that just doesn’t strike out very much. Both are more expensive than Valdez and have about the same projected FD total, so Framber seems like the best option with the most upside in a home game that could turn into a pitcher’s duel. He’s carrying a 1.42 ERA that’s much lower than his 3.48 FIP but the xFIP is just 3.01. There is some additional reason for concern given that his 90.9% LOB% is pretty bloated, but he should fare well if he can keep the White Sox off the base paths today.

Best GPP Value: Patrick Sandoval ($7,800)

Sandoval has made great strides in the past year, mixing in a solid changeup to go along with a fledgling four-seamer that Adam Strangis highlights in his excellent, must-read 6/19 Starting Rotation piece. While I don’t agree with his choices of Buehler and Lynn before Valdez today, the writeup on Sandoval deftly addresses how much of a great leverage play Sandoval could be in tournaments tonight, especially with some folks stacking the cheap Tigers bats as a contrarian move in GPPs. Sandoval is a decent by-the-book DFS play on FD because of his effective recent starts and the fact that the Angels are -220 favorite and the Tigers have the highest team K rate (27.6%) in baseball.

Contrarian GPP Play: Vladimir Gutierrez ($7,600)

Gutierrez has been awfully sharp in four outings this season, and while the Padres are not a team we like to play pitchers against, the rookie righty has yet to give up more than two earned runs in any start and already has two quality starts to his record in 2021. It’s important to point out that while the sample size is still very small, it’s possible major league hitters are still making an adjustment to the youngster’s stuff and what has been a very effective fastball. Gutierrez works in a slider, curve and change that have been average, but with injuries abounding in the Reds rotation, he’s making a play to stay there. As a GPP play, he’s got upside, along with huge bust potential, so steer clear of him in cash games and single-entry builds. Both he and the befuddling Austin Gomber (who’s pitched great in Coors Field this year) are interesting leverage plays on this slate.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Los Angeles Angels at DET RHP Wily Peralta

The Angels have a .377 team wOBA in the past seven games, and they have some monster bats in Shohei Ohtani ($4,400), Jared Walsh ($3,800) and Justin Upton ($3,400), who has thrived in the leadoff spot. Mix in “FanDuel fourth-man” power options Max Stassi ($3,600), Taylor Ward ($2,900) and the possible return of Anthony Rendon ($3,700) and you’ve got the building blocks of a slate-breaking stack.

Value Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. ARI RHP Matt Peacock

We can call the Dodgers a value stack on this slate because they have a few lefty hitters that qualify for that designation tonight including Gavin Lux ($2,900) and Zach McKinstry ($2,400). Using one or both of them should allow you to fit in two or three of the big bats: Mookie Betts ($4,200), Justin Turner ($3,900), a rejuvenated Albert Pujols ($3,10)and Chris Taylor, who is still overpriced a bit at $3,400 (unless he’s moved back up in the order). Will Smith ($2,700) and A.J. Pollock ($2,600) are also cheap and remain in the conversation for Dodgers stacks.

Contrarian Stack: Tampa Bay Rays vs. RHP Logan Gilbert

The Rays aren’t typically a contrarian stack, but they are today, especially with a Coors Field game on the slate. I’ll defer to the Discord chatter a bit on the specifics of the best Tampa Bay builds since they LOVE the Rays in there, but I’m starting my stacks with Austin Meadows ($3,800) and Randy Arozarena ($4,000), mixing in a few shares each of Joey Wendle ($3,100), Ji-Man Choi ($2,700) and Manuel Margot ($3,000).

Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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8/29 MLB DFS Pitching Picks

Gerald Colvin
written by Gerald Colvin

Welcome to a special Thursday edition appearance by me, Jerry Colvin. As a player who does this day in and day out, filling in is easy enough. After all, I already must do the research anyway.

On this 8/29 MLB DFS pitching slate you are going to have to make some clear and very painful choices on DraftKings, fade Coors Field, or not fade Coors Field. At the current salaries if you want any of them bats, you will be taking a chance on pitching. So, without delay let’s get this going.

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LanceLynn vs. Seattle Mariners

$9,300 FD / $10,000 DK

Despite the seven runs allowed to the White Sox in his last start, at his salary on both sites he is the top option on this 8/29 MLB DFS slate. In three starts this year versus Seattle, Lynn has allowed six earned runs over 20 innings while fanning 30 batters. With the Mariners striking out 24.6 percent of the time versus RHPs, combined with Lynn’s 10.4/K9, you have a real shot at some serious fantasy points.

Hyun-JinRyu vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

$9,000 FD / $10,500 DK

Despite my love for the Dodgers, and the joyful repentance I take for the season, and doubt I had in Ryu to ever pitch at this level again, I simply would rather pay for him tonight over Jacob deGrom. I would, however, on this 8/29 MLB DFS slate point out that at deGrom’s price-point on both sites he does make for a very tempting GPP play. Regardless, tonight is still going to come down to being able to afford some decent hitting. The Diamondbacks absolutely destroy LHPs to the tune of a .367 wOBA, and wRC+ of 123. At home they both drop significantly down to .316 and 88.

My worries here are strikeout upside. Arizona is currently only striking out 18.4 percent of the time versus LHP, and Ryu over his last three starts has 14 strikeouts over 20 innings while only allowing one earned run. With numbers like these, despite the decreased strikeout totals, I see no reason not to say thank you, Ryu. This makes the 8/29 MLB DFS even better if he goes through.

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ChrisPaddack vs. San Francisco Giants

$7,000 FD / $9,000 DK

It’s time to man up and make some hard decisions on this 8/29 MLB DFS slate. Over his last four starts spanning 17 innings versus the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Phillies, Paddack has allowed 19 earned runs. Now this does indeed scare the boxer briefs off me. The fact remains all three of them teams mentioned above are far better than the Giants. San Francisco is striking out 22.6 percent of the time versus RHPs, and have a home .wOBA of .281 to compliment the wRC+ of 75.

Both are 30th, opening the door for Paddack to have a strong bounce-back start facing a team he has shown success against in two previous starts this season.

Alex Woodvs. Miami Marlins

$7,500 FD / $7,900 DK

Alex Wood, yes that is where we have landed. Alex Wood. Remember that name tonight because salary wise if you were to go any lower, the blow-up risk associated here is the difference between the first musket, and a modern-day shotgun. He has absolutely been beaten up over his last four starts facing the Pirates, Cardinals, Nationals, and Cubs.

Now the difference between them and the Marlins is day and night. The Marlins are striking out 22.5 percent of the time versus LHP with an increase to 26.1 over the last seven days. To throw the proverbial cherry on top the only two teams with worse home numbers are the Tigers, and Giants (ring a bell?). On this 8/29 MLB DFS slate with limited cheap options, I would eat a good dinner and tell myself this is his best chance for Wood to come out solid.

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8/23 DFS Pitching Options and Prop Picks

Cora Baylis
written by Cora Baylis

It’s Friday and that means I’m covering pitching. This is my favorite article of the week and I can’t wait to get into it. With that said, let’s discuss our 8/23 DFS Pitching options.

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8/23 DFS Pitching Cash Game Options

Jose Berrios, MIN vs. DET 

DK ($10,000)   FD ($8,800) 

This is the best cash game pitcher of the day. The simple fact is, you have to love any pitcher against the Tigers, particularly a great one like Berrios. A 3.37 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 8.6 K/9 rate speak for itself and it’s amazing just how reliable this guy is. We’re talking about a pitcher who’s thrown at least 5.2 innings in 23 of his 25 starts this season and the Twins let him go as deep as he wants.  

It’s all about the matchup though, with Detroit establishing themselves as the worst offense in baseball. In fact, the Motor City Kitties currently rank bottom-two in runs scored, OBP, OPS, xwOBA and K rate. That’s why Berrios enters this matchup as a –210 favorite and why the Tigers are projected for fewer than four runs.  

Lance Lynn, TEX at CWS 

DK ($10,500)   FD ($9,700) 

It’s so crazy to call Lynn a cash game pitcher but something has legitimately changed with this guy. A 3.60 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 10.2 K/9 rate are truly incredible numbers in a place like Texas. That’s arguably the toughest ballpark to pitch in and it says a lot about just how much he’s improved. His last 19 starts are where he’s really turned things around, pitching to a 2.90 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 10.9 K/9 rate. He’s actually thrown at least six innings and struck out at least five batters in all but one of those starts. 

All of those brilliant numbers make Lynn a very enticing option in a matchup like this. The White Sox currently rank 28th in runs scored, 24th in OBP, 27th in OPS, 26th in K rate and 25th in xwOBA. They’re even worse against righties, filling out their lineup with guys like Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez, James McCann and Tim Anderson.  

Jack Flaherty, STL vs. COL 

DK ($9,400)   FD ($9,900) 

This one really pains me because the Rockies are my team but they’re just horrendous outside of Coors Field. In fact, Colorado ranks 23rd in K rate, 26th in runs scored, 29th in OPS and last in OBP outside of Coors. Those are nightmarish numbers against a guy like Flaherty, who’s been the best pitcher in the league the last month. Over his last seven starts, Flaherty is pitching to a 0.89 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and 10.9 K/9 rate. That has led to him scoring at least 32 FanDuel points in all seven of those starts, which is an unbelievably high floor from a player in this price range. That’s why Flaherty and the Cardinals enter this game as a -230 favorite.

8/23 DFS Pitching GPP Plays 

Vince Velasquez, PHI at MIA 

DK ($7,800)   FD ($7,700) 

Velasquez has been a regular in my articles over recent weeks and his numbers indicate that we’ve been getting it right with this talented pitcher. Since June 5, Velasquez is pitching to a 4.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 9.6 K/9 rate. That ERA may look like nothing special but that WHIP and K rate indicates that he’s one of the best pitchers in this rotation. Gabe Kapler really let him loose in his last start too, allowing VV to throw a season-high 108 pitches. Length has been one of the only issues with Velasquez over recent years and we’re looking at a stud if he throws over 100 pitches.  

The career numbers speak loudly as well, with VV posting a 4.20 career xFIP to match his 4.05 SIERA and 25.4 percent K rate. Those great numbers make him particularly intriguing against an offense like the Marlins, with Miami ranked either 29th or dead-last in runs scored, OBP, OPS and xwOBA. That’s no surprise when you see that Velasquez has a 3.52 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 8.9 K/9 rate against them this season. Not to mention, Marlins Park is arguably the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in baseball, with Velasquez entering this matchup as a -180 favorite.

Zach Plesac, CLE vs. KC 

DK ($7,200)   FD ($8,000) 

Plesac has quietly had a nice year for the Indians and it’s no wonder that they plan on keeping him in the rotation even with Carlos Carrasco returning. So far this season, Plesac is pitching to a 3.53 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. That’s really all you can ask for from someone this cheap and it looks even better when you consider that he’s faced the Yankees twice, the Red Sox twice, the Rangers twice and the Astros in his 15 starts.  

We’re talking about a guy who was a stud in the minors too, posting a 1.89 ERA and 0.86 WHIP for his Double-A and Triple-A career. All of these numbers make him tough to fade against the Royals, with Kansas City ranked 27th in runs scored, 28th in OPS, 23rd in xwOBA and 27th in wOBA. That’s why they have an implied run total south of four and why the Indians enter this matchup as a –180 favorite.  

Trent Thornton, TOR at SEA 

DK ($6,200)   FD ($6,000) 

This is a total punt play. Thornton has frustrated me all season in terms of picking hitters against him and it’s time that I get on his end of the success train. A 5.30 ERA and 1.48 WHIP looks pretty ugly, but pitching in the AL East will do that to your numbers. He’s actually allowed five runs or more to the Rays (2), Red Sox (2), Twins and Yankees. Those happen to be the only games that he’s allowed more than four runs and those six ugly outings have sky-rocketed his numbers.  

If you look at his other 19 starts, Thornton is pitching to a 3.28 ERA and 1.17 WHIP en route to 29.8 FanDuel points per outing. That shows that he can perform against poor offenses and he gets just that here. In fact, the Mariners currently rank bottom-five in runs scored, OBP, OPS and K rate since the opening month of the season. Getting to face an offense like this in a pitcher’s park like Safeco Field makes Thornton one of the best punt plays on the board. Opposing Thornton is Justus Sheffield and he’s also in play with his elite minor league numbers, great matchup and dirt-cheap price.  

8/23 DFS Pitching Monkey Knife Fight Picks of the Day 

Play MLB Player Prop Games and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

Here are our picks of the day:

Zach Plesac Over 4.5 Strikeouts

Trent Thornton Over 4.5 Strikeouts

Both of these plays speak for themselves when you read the previous write-ups and these props are simply too low.

MKF Record 28-21

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8/7 DFS Pitching Picks: Shopping for Discounts

written by

Unless your name is Gerrit Cole, Wednesday’s slate of pitchers is a grab bag of mediocrity. Somehow, some way, we will get through this together and find some bargains to assure most of your 8/7 DFS coin goes to loading up on hitters. Let’s all say a quiet prayer and remember that Wednesday is just 24 hours a longer journey.8/7 DFS Pitching Cash Game Plays of the DayLance Lynn, TEX at CLEDK ($11,700) FD ($10,500)Lynn has been straight Boss over his last five starts for FanDuel users, putting up at 45 points in four of his outings, with his 58-point gem against the Tigers in his last start marking the fourth time in his last nine starts that he’s hit the 50-point barrier. Since the All-Star Break, Lynn has been whiffing batters at a prolific clip, striking out 47 over 33 innings of work.Perhaps the additions of Yasiel Puig and Franmil Reyes will give the Indians a modicum of 8/7 DFS hope in the second game of the twin-bill at Progressive Field. Lynn won his only other appearance against the Indians, holding them to six hits while striking out nine over seven innings on June 17. Considering bullpen issues might be a problem, keep in mind that Lynn has thrown at least 100 pitches in 21 of his 23 starts.Max Fried, ATL at MINDK ($6,100) FD ($7,700)Fried has won each of his three starts since the All-Star Break, holding opponents to a .233 batting average. I understand if there’s a sense of 8/7 DFS caution in pitching Fried against a Twins lineup that raked four homers in Tuesday’s loss. Fried’s fly ball rate of 21.8% works in his favor, as does the fact opponents have a modest 36.1% hard contact rate. You also have to like Fried’s 21:3 K:BB margin over 17 innings of daylight baseball, of which he will be starting in today. 8/7 DFS Pitching Mid-Tier OptionsJordan Yamamoto, MIA at NYMDK ($7,400), FD ($6,800)Away from pitching in front of hundreds and hundreds of fans in Miami, Yamamoto has been more effective, sporting a 2.86 ERA and a dazzling .135 OBA. Righties in the Mets’ lineup will be hard-pressed to hammer him in 8/7 DFS, as he’s allowed just one homer in 91 at-bats against them to go along with a .176/.286/.275 slash. If he stays away from the walks (4.13 BB/9), then Yamamoto could be a solid value here.Steven Matz, NYM vs. MIADK ($7,700) FD ($7,800)Hint: Don’t find your offense in this game. Despite going from 58 FanDuel points to a mere eight in his last start at the Pirates, Matz is a good play against a Marlins offense that has gone .225/.279/.388 since the ASB. I wouldn’t worry too much about Matz’s 1.64 HR/9 rate; after all, the Marlins are dead last in the majors with just 93 homers while a team .658 OPS also ranks 30th.8/7 DFS Pitching GPP Punt PlaysIvan Nova, CWS at DETDK ($7,000), FD ($6,600)The Tigers’ OPS+ of 77 ties the Marlins for last in the majors, but the Motor City Kitties own the basement when it comes to Adjusted Batting Runs, where they dwell with a -131.2 mark. This is music to the ears of Nova in 8/7 DFS, who has allowed just two earned runs over his last 19 innings. Nova has a 4.47 ERA in day games and shows considerably more strikeout punch on the road (50) than at home (35).Dustin May, LAD vs. STLDK ($7.600), FD ($5,800)It won’t hurt to give May a look. He gave up nine hits and three earned runs in his big league debut last Friday. What stands out with May is that he didn’t allow a walk in his 5.2 innings of work. He also didn’t allow a homer, something that could pose a threat to a Cardinals lineup filled with middling power, evidenced by its .163 Isolated Power rate, placing them 23rd. 

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8/2 DFS Pitching and Prop Picks: Ray, May and Matz Seizing Bats

Lahius Leverette
written by Lahius Leverette

I always try to be transparent with you guys and this is by far one of the worst slates I’ve had to write about all season. I honestly don’t trust any of these guys and I’ll be treading the waters lightly on this slate because of that. The 8/2 DFS pitching options are downright ugly and we’re going to take a few shots in the dark to try to find some nice value plays. With so many bad pitchers toeing the rubber, it’s going to be critical to pay up for hitters and connect on a solid cheap pitcher.   

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8/2 DFS Pitching Cash Game Plays of the Day 

Lance Lynn, TEX vs. DET 

DK ($11,700)   FD ($10.500) 

Having Lynn as my cash game pitcher of the day should tell you everything you need to know about this slate but he’s having an incredible season. While a 3.83 ERA and 1.22 WHIP are not necessarily special numbers, he’s been one of the best pitchers in the league since the opening month. In fact, Lynn is generating a 3.05 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over his last 15 starts while striking out 124 batters across 101.1 innings of action. That’s led to him scoring at least 30 FanDuel points in 14 of those starts, which is exactly what you want out of a cash game pitcher.  

What really makes him intriguing is this matchup with the Tigers. The Motor City Kitties currently rank bottom-two in K rate, wOBA, xwOBA, SLG, OBP. OPS, BA and runs scored. That doesn’t even take into consideration that Detroit just traded their best hitter and Texas enters this game as a –240 favorite.  

Robbie Ray, ARI vs. WSH 

DK ($10,400)   FD ($10,000) 

It’s weird to call Ray a cash game pitcher with his volatility but his K upside actually gives him a pretty solid floor. We’re talking about a guy who has at least 49 FanDuel points in four of his last five games, striking out 44 batters in those 30.1 innings. Any guy who has a 32 percent K rate and 3.70 xFIP while recording a 13.2 K/9 rate at home is worth a shot and it gives him one of the best floors on this ugly slate. Washington isn’t the best matchup but they do rank 15th in SLG and 13th in runs scored, so it could be worse.  

8/2 DFS Pitching Mid-Tier Options 

Martin Perez, MIN vs. KC 

DK ($7,900)   FD ($7,000) 

This is where it starts getting scary. Perez is certainly risky but he’s got some serious upside in this circumstance. The major reason why is because of this matchup, with Kansas City ranking 25th in wOBA, 24th in xwOBA, 26th in xSLG, 25th in runs scored and 26th in OPS.  

That’s obviously terrible and it puts any pitcher in play against them. It’s not like Perez has been terrible this season either, scoring at least 24 FanDuel points in 13 of his 21 starts. That would be an ideal score in this price range, as he’s also one of the best bets on the board to grab a win. In fact, the Twins enter this matchup as a –250 favorite.  

Steven Matz, NYM at PIT 

DK ($7,700)   FD ($7,800) 

Matz is coming off of his best start of the season, pitching a complete-game shutout against these Pirates. That obviously puts him in play here and he’s been much better than his season-long numbers would indicate. Two horrendous starts against the Phillies have absolutely bombarded his numbers, as he allowed 15 runs in his two outings against them. If you take out those two starts, Matz actually has a 3.31 ERA and 1.25 WHIP this season.  

That pairs beautifully with the fact that Matz is pitching to a 1.80 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over his last four appearances. The complete-game shutout against the Pirates is really no surprise when you look at Pittsburgh’s numbers either, with the Pirates ranked 26th in runs scored, 29th in OPS and last in OBP against left-handed pitching this season.  

8/2 DFS Pitching GPP Punt Plays 

Kevin Gausman, ATL vs. CIN 

DK ($8,300)   FD ($6,300) 

Gausman has some unsightly numbers this season but I’m going to go ahead and use pitchers against the Reds for the rest of the year. Not only do they rank 27th in xwOBA, 29th in xSLG and 23rd in runs scored, they just traded Scooter Gennett and Yasiel Puig. Those are two of their best hitters and this is easily one of the worst lineups in baseball without them.  

That’s huge for an inconsistent pitcher like Gausman, as he’s actually got eight Ks in back-to-back games. This is a guy who’s scored at least 43 FanDuel points in four of his 15 starts this season and he’ll be the best value on the board if he duplicates that in this superb matchup. This dude is due for some serious positive regression too, as his 4.15 FIP and 24 percent K rate is a better indicator than his disastrous 5.97 ERA. Not to mention, Gausman enters this game as a –140 favorite.  

Dustin May, LAD vs. SD 

DK ($7,600)   FD ($5,800) 

It’s always risky to use a guy in his debut but Dodgers pitchers are always worth starting at home. This is young stud performed well at the minors too, generating a 2.30 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at Triple-A this season. That’s backed up by his 3.47 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in the minors dating back to the start of last season, as his 24.5 percent K rate is an impressive mark too.  

He actually put up those impressive numbers in a hitter-friendly environment and he’s fully stretched out for this game. The matchup against San Diego is what we really like though, with the Padres sitting 27th in K rate, 23rd in xSLG, 25th in xwOBA and 24th in OBP. Vegas agrees, making May a –190 favorite with the Padres projected for fewer than four runs.  

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day 

Play MLB Player Prop Games and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

Steven Matz +0.5 Strikeouts over Trevor Williams

I was blown away that we are getting strikeouts in this prop. I would have taken -0.5 Ks with Matz but we will cash this prop if these guys tie in strikeouts. Thats shocking considering that Matz has the much easier matchup and that Williams is pitching to a 7.01 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over his last six starts.

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MLB

DFS Team Stacks for MLB: Winning Edge for August 2

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This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s eight game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

**All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you are watching the weather as well.

DFS Team Stack: Minnesota Twins

vs. RHP Glenn Sparkman: 7.00 Runs

**Low Risk

This Twins lineup is the clear cut top stack on the slate. They are facing Glenn Sparkman, who is by no means a good pitcher. The odds are heavily against him, owning a slate low 12.8% K rate. He is only inducing a 7% swinging strike rate as well. Sparkman is giving up a slate high 84.9% contact rate and 2.04 HR/9 innings. He owns a 5.25 ERA, 5.94 FIP, and 5.44 SIERA. Sparkman is getting absolutely blasted on the road, allowing batters to slash to a .441 wOBA, .674 SLG, and .401 OBP over 33 innings pitched. Glenn Sparkman has allowed 32 earned runs in those 33 innings. The Twins are slashing to a .357 wOBA, .223 ISO, and 122 WRC+ over the last month.

*I want to emphasize the importance of getting a lot of exposure across the board here. Just about every player in this Twins lineup grades out very well today.

Preferred Stack: Jorge Polanco ($3700 FD|$4700 DK), Max Kepler ($4400 FD|$5200 DK), and Nelson Cruz ($4500 FD|$5500 DK). Also consider Miguel Sano ($3700 FD|$4900 DK), Eddie Rosario ($3700 FD|$4700 DK), and Luis Arraez ($2800 FD|$3900 DK).

DFS Team Stack: Houston Astros

vs. LHP Yusei Kikuchi (SEA): 6.45 Runs

**Low Risk

Another expensive stack here, but this Astros squad is in a great spot at home. Yusei Kikuchi is on the mound and owns a 5.21 ERA, 5.61 FIP, and 5.16 SIERA. He has a lowly 16.6% K rate and 8.9% swinging strike rate. Kikuchi is giving up 1.89 HR/9 innings and a 45% ground ball rate. His splits are fairly close, allowing batters to slash to a .354 wOBA, .340 OBP, and .510 SLG. The Astros are back to full health and the bats are hot. They are slashing to a .368 wOBA, .214 ISO, and .136 WRC+ over the last month.

Preferred Stack: Jose Altuve ($4300 FD|$5000 DK), Alex Bregman ($3800 FD|$4600 DK), George Springer ($4400 FD|$5300 DK), and Carlos Correa ($3900 FD|$4600 DK).

DFS Team Stack: Colorado Rockies

vs. RHP Shaun Anderson (SFG): 7.70

**Moderate Risk

The Rockies are back home and we all know what happened the last time they faced the Giants. These teams played a four game series against each other back in mid-July and combined for a whopping 55 runs. Shaun Anderson takes the mound, owning a 5.06 ERA, 4.67 FIP, and 5.16 SIERA. Anderson has not been good to righties on the road this season, allowing them to slash to a .416 wOBA, .587 SLG, and .416 OBP. He has allowed 19 earned runs in 21 innings on the road against them. The Rockies are slashing to a .309 wOBA, .149 ISO, and 74 WRC+ right now. These numbers aren’t good but I think this is a nice spot for a slump buster at home.

Preferred Stack: Trevor Story ($4100 FD|$5100 DK), Nolan Arenado ($4200 FD|$5200 DK), Daniel Murphy ($3400 FD|$5200 DK), David Dahl ($3500 FD|$5200 DK), and Ryan McMahon ($3100 FD|$4500 DK).

Honorable Mention

DFS Team Stack: Arizona Diamondbacks

vs. RHP Joe Ross (WSH): 5.20 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Stack: Ketel Marte ($3900 FD|$4800 DK), Eduardo Escobar ($3700 FD|$4700 DK), David Peralta ($3600 FD|$4000 DK), and Jake Lamb ($2700 FD|$3800 DK). Also consider Jarrod Dyson($3100 FD|$4300 DK).

DFS Team Stack: Cleveland Indians

vs.LHP Dillon Peters (LAA: 6.00 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Stack: Carlos Santana ($3800 FD|$4600 DK), Jordan Luplow ($2500 FD|$4400 DK), Oscar Mercado ($3600 FD|$4700 DK) and Francisco Lindor ($4100 FD|$5200 DK).

DFS Team Stack: Texas Rangers

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Stack: Danny Santana ($3700 FD|$5100 DK), Roughned Odor ($3000 FD|$4500 DK), Hunter Pence ($3700 FD|$4800 DK), Willie Calhoun ($3500 FD|$4900 DK) and Shin-soo Choo ($3400 FD|$4700 DK).

Pitching

  1. Dustin May RHP (LAD): 3.50 Runs
  2. Lance Lynn RHP (TEX) : 3.50 Runs
  3. Robbie Ray LHP (ARI): 4.00 Run

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