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NFLSports Betting

NFL PrizePicks – Week 12

Jared Levitt
written by Jared Levitt

Hope you all had a solid Thanksgiving! We have a great Sunday of football today. There are some great matchups that we can definitely take full advantage of today. I’ve done my research and found some very beatable PrizePicks props. I absolutely love Lamar Jackson tonight. Look for him to smash, amongst some others.

Sign up here and deposit at PrizePicks today and we’ll throw in a free 60-day trial of Win Daily Gold! Use Promo Code WINDAILY.

Let’s dig in and make some money to pay for all those massive turkeys we’ll eat today!

Derrick Henry – .5 Pass + Rush + Rec TD – Over

Derrick Henry gets one of the best matchups on the board today.  No team in the NFL has given up more rushing TD’s to running backs this season than the Carolina Panthers.  Through 10 games, the Panthers have given up 14 so far.  This sets up great for Henry to have a bounce back game after a rough couple of games.  Henry has just 4 rushing TD’s in this disappointing season but he’s sure to find the end zone today with a great matchup.  Love the Over here. 

Lamar Jackson – 282.5 Pass + Rush Yards – Over

Lamar Jackson will get to showcase his talents in primetime tonight as the Ravens take on the Chargers.  Only the Commanders have given up more passing yards this season than the Chargers and the Commanders have played 2 more games.  After tonight, we’ll be saying that no team has given up more passing yards this season than the Charges.  In back to back weeks, the Chargers have given up more than 300 yards passing.  While I don’t see Jackson getting to 300 yards passing, I do think that between his arm and legs, he does get well over this 282.5 yard prop on PrizePicks today.  Love the Over!

Rhamondre Stevenson – 62.5 Rushing Yards – Over

Over the last 2 weeks, Rhamondre Stevenson has rushed for over 85 yards in each game.  With him running the ball well right now and him getting a beautiful matchup today, I absolutely love this number for him.  Week in and week out, the Giants are giving up massive numbers on the ground to running backs.  This week should be no different.  Only the Broncos have given up more yards on the ground this season than the Giants.  They are awful against running backs and Stevenson should be able to take full advantage of this matchup and have a third straight strong game.  Love the Over!

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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NFL

NFL DFS: The Inside Look- Week 2 – Win Daily Sports

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Week 2 edition of The Inside Look for the 2022 NFL season.  This will be a data driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend.   My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.

With Week 2 now complete one thing is very clear, Ravens fans are not happy!

Let’s dig in to the data!

Wide Receiver Targets

Before we dig in to individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets.  Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production.  The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value. 

Thanks to trailing by 21 heading into the fourth quarter on Sunday, Tua Tagovailoa was forced to throw often.  That led to monster games from both Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill.  The 19 targets were by far the most that Waddle has ever had in a game, as were the 171 yards receiving.  Waddle now has touchdowns in 2 consecutive games to start to the season.

Waddle’s teammate Tyreek Hill also had himself a monster game, finishing with 11 catches and 190 receiving yards on 13 targes.  Like Waddle, he found the endzone twice.  There are going to be games where Hill gets you almost no fantasy points.  That said, there’s no receiver that has the pure upside that he has due to his breakaway speed and ability to get past any secondary in the league.  Next weekend will be a much tougher task for the Dolphins as they’ll face off against a Bills defense that has given up only 363 passing yards on the year. 

Now on to non-Dolphins receivers!  With no Gabe Davis last night, it was the Stefon Diggs show for the Buffalo Bills.  And oh what a show it was!  Diggs finished with 12 catches on 14 targets and 148 receiving yards and 3 TD.  The 148 yards were the most he’s had in a game since Week 10 against the Jets last season. 

What a start to the year for Amon-Ra St. Brown!  The second year receiver for the Detroit Lions had one of the finest games of his young career this past weekend.  He was targeted a team leading 12 times (second straight week with 12 targets) and caught 9 of them for 116 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Up next week for St. Brown and the Lions will be the Vikings, a team that has given up close to 600 passing yards on the year. 

Running Back Targets

As you’ll see when we get to the Running Back Touches section, this was a weird week for running backs.  Only Austin Ekeler was over 7 targets this weeks as he finished his game with 10 targets.  If we compare that to least week, there were 6 running backs that had more than 7 targets.  Ekeler was able to catch 9 of his 10 targets for 55 yards. 

Tight End Targets

The first 2 names on this chart are names we often see on this list.  Both Zach Ertz and Mark Andrews are favorites of their respective QB’s as both have strong abilities to catch balls thrown their way.  Ertz led all Tight Ends this week with 11 targets, finishing with 8 catches and 75 yards.  The only negative was that he failed to find the end zone. 

Mark Andrews had his first 100-yard game of the young season.  He is, by far, Lamar Jackson’s favorite target.  In Week 2, Andrews was able to catch 9 of the 11 balls thrown his way for 104 yards and 1 TD.  Up next will be a tough matchup with the Patriots, a team that has only given up 37 yards to Tight Ends so far this season through the first 2 weeks.

Quarterback Target Share

Justin Herbert threw the ball 46 times this week past week.  Nearly a third of those passes were thrown to his backs.  While Austin Ekeler saw the bulk of the 15 targets to his backs, both Zander Horvath and Josh Kelly saw action too with 2 targets each.  Should Keenan Allen return in Week 3 for the Chargers, I’m sure we’ll see a swing back to more target share to his receivers. 

Of Lamar Jackson’s 29 passes this weekend, more than half of them went to his Tight Ends.  The combo of Andrews and Isaiah Likely combined for 16 targets this weekend.  Likely’s 5 targets were the third most of anyone on the Ravens this weekend.

If you missed what happened in Baltimore this weekend with Tua Tagovailoa, it’s time to put down the book or whatever you were doing and search for some highlights.  The Dolphins trailed throughout in this one and it caused Tua to throw often.  Tua threw the ball 50 times on Sunday, with more than 70% of those passes going to his receivers.  Hill and Waddle accounted for 32 of the 50 targets.   

Running Back Touches

I said it earlier and I’ll say it again, this was a weird weekend for running backs.  Out of all the running backs with more than 15 touches this weekend, none finished with more than 90 yards rushing.  Nick Chubb was the “best “ of the bunch as he finished with 87 yards on 17 carries.  His 5.1 yards per carry were the most of anyone in the top tier of running backs and carries.  Not what you want to see in season-long fantasy and DFS.

That said, there were a handful of running backs that did have solid games.  They didn’t finish in the top of carries, but Aaron Jones, David Montgomery, and Christian McCaffrey all finished with over 100 yards rushing on 15 carries.  Again, rough week for Running Backs. 

Playbook

The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.

For the second consecutive week, Chicago went with a run heavy offense.  The only difference this week was they did not play in a monsoon.  Justin Fields threw the ball just 11 times this weekend against the Packers.  I don’t need to state the obvious, but he’s not really an option for fantasy at this point.  

On the other end of the spectrum, the Vikings threw the ball 80% of the time last night vs. the Eagles.  Trailing from the moment of the coin flip and the run game of Dalvin Cook non-existent, the Vikings were forced to throw often.  Of the 56 plays for the Vikings last night, 45 were passes. 

Before setting your weekly lineups, make sure to check out our Optimizer.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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NFL DFS: The Inside Look- Week 2 – Win Daily Sports

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Week 2 edition of The Inside Look for the 2022 NFL season.  This will be a data driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend.   My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.

With Week 2 now complete one thing is very clear, Ravens fans are not happy!

Let’s dig in to the data!

Wide Receiver Targets

Before we dig in to individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets.  Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production.  The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value. 

Thanks to trailing by 21 heading into the fourth quarter on Sunday, Tua Tagovailoa was forced to throw often.  That led to monster games from both Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill.  The 19 targets were by far the most that Waddle has ever had in a game, as were the 171 yards receiving.  Waddle now has touchdowns in 2 consecutive games to start to the season.

Waddle’s teammate Tyreek Hill also had himself a monster game, finishing with 11 catches and 190 receiving yards on 13 targes.  Like Waddle, he found the endzone twice.  There are going to be games where Hill gets you almost no fantasy points.  That said, there’s no receiver that has the pure upside that he has due to his breakaway speed and ability to get past any secondary in the league.  Next weekend will be a much tougher task for the Dolphins as they’ll face off against a Bills defense that has given up only 363 passing yards on the year. 

Now on to non-Dolphins receivers!  With no Gabe Davis last night, it was the Stefon Diggs show for the Buffalo Bills.  And oh what a show it was!  Diggs finished with 12 catches on 14 targets and 148 receiving yards and 3 TD.  The 148 yards were the most he’s had in a game since Week 10 against the Jets last season. 

What a start to the year for Amon-Ra St. Brown!  The second year receiver for the Detroit Lions had one of the finest games of his young career this past weekend.  He was targeted a team leading 12 times (second straight week with 12 targets) and caught 9 of them for 116 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Up next week for St. Brown and the Lions will be the Vikings, a team that has given up close to 600 passing yards on the year. 

Running Back Targets

As you’ll see when we get to the Running Back Touches section, this was a weird week for running backs.  Only Austin Ekeler was over 7 targets this weeks as he finished his game with 10 targets.  If we compare that to least week, there were 6 running backs that had more than 7 targets.  Ekeler was able to catch 9 of his 10 targets for 55 yards. 

Tight End Targets

The first 2 names on this chart are names we often see on this list.  Both Zach Ertz and Mark Andrews are favorites of their respective QB’s as both have strong abilities to catch balls thrown their way.  Ertz led all Tight Ends this week with 11 targets, finishing with 8 catches and 75 yards.  The only negative was that he failed to find the end zone. 

Mark Andrews had his first 100-yard game of the young season.  He is, by far, Lamar Jackson’s favorite target.  In Week 2, Andrews was able to catch 9 of the 11 balls thrown his way for 104 yards and 1 TD.  Up next will be a tough matchup with the Patriots, a team that has only given up 37 yards to Tight Ends so far this season through the first 2 weeks.

Quarterback Target Share

Justin Herbert threw the ball 46 times this week past week.  Nearly a third of those passes were thrown to his backs.  While Austin Ekeler saw the bulk of the 15 targets to his backs, both Zander Horvath and Josh Kelly saw action too with 2 targets each.  Should Keenan Allen return in Week 3 for the Chargers, I’m sure we’ll see a swing back to more target share to his receivers. 

Of Lamar Jackson’s 29 passes this weekend, more than half of them went to his Tight Ends.  The combo of Andrews and Isaiah Likely combined for 16 targets this weekend.  Likely’s 5 targets were the third most of anyone on the Ravens this weekend.

If you missed what happened in Baltimore this weekend with Tua Tagovailoa, it’s time to put down the book or whatever you were doing and search for some highlights.  The Dolphins trailed throughout in this one and it caused Tua to throw often.  Tua threw the ball 50 times on Sunday, with more than 70% of those passes going to his receivers.  Hill and Waddle accounted for 32 of the 50 targets.   

Running Back Touches

I said it earlier and I’ll say it again, this was a weird weekend for running backs.  Out of all the running backs with more than 15 touches this weekend, none finished with more than 90 yards rushing.  Nick Chubb was the “best “ of the bunch as he finished with 87 yards on 17 carries.  His 5.1 yards per carry were the most of anyone in the top tier of running backs and carries.  Not what you want to see in season-long fantasy and DFS.

That said, there were a handful of running backs that did have solid games.  They didn’t finish in the top of carries, but Aaron Jones, David Montgomery, and Christian McCaffrey all finished with over 100 yards rushing on 15 carries.  Again, rough week for Running Backs. 

Playbook

The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.

For the second consecutive week, Chicago went with a run heavy offense.  The only difference this week was they did not play in a monsoon.  Justin Fields threw the ball just 11 times this weekend against the Packers.  I don’t need to state the obvious, but he’s not really an option for fantasy at this point.  

On the other end of the spectrum, the Vikings threw the ball 80% of the time last night vs. the Eagles.  Trailing from the moment of the coin flip and the run game of Dalvin Cook non-existent, the Vikings were forced to throw often.  Of the 56 plays for the Vikings last night, 45 were passes. 

Before setting your weekly lineups, make sure to check out our Optimizer.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Daily Fantasy SportsNFLPremium

Week 10 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Ravens at Dolphins

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 10 NFL DFS contests!
NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.
Let’s get to the game!
Week 10 NFL DFS MVP ca...

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NFLDaily Fantasy SportsPremium

Week 5 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Colts at Ravens

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 5 NFL DFS contests!
NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.
Let’s get to the game!
Week 5 NFL DFS MVP cand...

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NFLDaily Fantasy Sports

Week 1 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Ravens at Raiders

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 1 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my TNF showdown article.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 1 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Lamar Jackson (FD $17,000, DK $18,600)

Pivot: Darren Waller (FD $13,000, DK $16,200)

Contrarian #1: Mark Andrews (FD $13,000, DK $13,500)

Contrarian #2: Derek Carr (FD $14,000, DK $14,700)

Contrarian #3: Ty’Son Williams (FD $12,000, DK $10,200)

Lamar Jackson is far and away the most expensive (and highest-upside) player in this contest, but I think we’re going to need him in the MVP spot or one of the FLEX spots to cash. The Raiders defense is dealing with lots of turnover and communication/teamwork aspects of their unit could see some struggles in Week 1, especially against a playmaker like Jackson. He should be running a little more than usual with the makeshift backfield they’re employing, and all the new faces just getting into the Baltimore system.

Ravens notes: The most important players to roster will be Jackson, TE Mark Andrews, RB Ty’Son Williams (who could see an enormous Week 1 workload) and WR Marquise Brown, but we could see some of the newly acquired veterans (Latavius Murray and Sammy Watkins stand out the most) or fringe offensive players like Devin Duvernay — or even rookie Tylan Wallace — play a role. I’m also very intersted in the Ravens DST and K Justin Tucker, since this one could be lower-scoring than if both these offenses ere at full strength.

Raiders notes: Josh Jacobs is questionable to play tonight, and the best possible offensive combo for the Raiders is likely Derek Carr/Darren Waller, with Waller being the best one-off if we overstack Ravens. We’re not getting enough of a discount on Kenyan Drake to focus too much on him, but he’s a GPP play given his ability to haul in reception and rack up the points that way — especially if Jacobs is unavailable. It’s interesting to see the less heralded WR Bryan Edwards with a salary higher than WR Henry Ruggs III, who is another possible playmaker. We also have to consider Hunter Renfrow and Willie Snead IV, but these WRS are all pretty risky plays.

Week 1 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a Week 1 NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Use too many Raiders. I could see 3 BAL/3 LV working, but most of my builds will be 4 BAL/2 LV.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Ignore kickers and defenses. Both Tucker and the Ravens DST are in play, and Daniel Carlson could factor as well tonight.

Now that we’ve established some Week 1 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Lamar Jackson
  2. Mark Andrews
  3. Darren Waller
  4. Ty’Son Williams
  5. Derek Carr
  6. Marquise Brown
  7. Ravens DST
  8. Henry Ruggs III
  9. Bryan Edwards
  10. Josh Jacobs (questionable, so only if he plays)
  11. Kenyan Drake
  12. Sammy Watkins
  13. Justin Tucker
  14. Latavius Murray
  15. Hunter Renfrow
  16. Tylan Wallace
  17. Devin Duvernay
  18. Peyton Barber
  19. Willie Snead
  20. Daniel Carlson
  21. Raiders DST
  22. James Proche

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!

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Collector’s Corner: NFL Playoffs – AFC Trading Cards

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

With the start of the NFL Playoffs, Collector’s Corner will take a look at what trading cards could see a bump based on their impending gridiron success. We’ll start with the AFC.

Note: Collector’s Corner will use my DFS-derived Cash/GPP/Punt terminology (introduced in part 2 of my NBA preview piece) to break down the best buys – “Cash” being solid, low-risk with a high ceiling but moderate growth potential, “GPP” being a little more risky but marked by enormous growth potential, and “Punts” – which can be had cheaply but don’t offer quite the same upside/growth potential as the Cash and GPP plays.

First Round Bye

Kansas City Chiefs

Cash – Patrick Mahomes rookie trading cards remain the most sought-after and expensive slabs on the market. There’s still some room for growth, and the Chiefs appear poised for another Super Bowl run. If you can’t afford the 2017 rookies, there are plenty of 2018-2020 products that still command high prices and are worth grabbing. And the second-year PSA 9s won’t break your bankroll.

GPP – Tyreek Hill and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are probably the two players with the most growth potential on the Chiefs, as a 2016 Panini Prizm Silver (in a PSA 10) sold for just $375 in November, and the injury to Clyde Edwards-Helaire (and acquisition of Le’Veon Bell) slowed the hype train on the Chiefs rookie RB. I just bought a gorgeous SGC 10 of Hill’s Prizm Silver rookie for $275 – I like the SGC slabs better anyway and this could easily be a $450-500 trading card if he shines again in the playoffs.

Punt – Travis Kelce is a great player, but tight end trading cards don’t typically command the prices that QBs, RBs and even WRS do. Excluding his beautiful 2013 National Treasures autos and RPAs, Kelce’s rookies are affordable and prime for more growth as collectors realize what a generational talent he is at the position and how he’s a near lock for HOF enshrinement in Canton.

Wild Card games

The Best: Bills, Ravens, Titans

Buffalo Bills

Cash – Josh Allen is the guy to collect right now, period. I’m buying up Prizms and Donruss Rated Rookies – as well as any and all parallels when I can – and I’ve already seen 50% growth in a die-cut 2018 Obsidian Cutting Edge rookie patch card (pictured below) I got for under $50 a couple of weeks ago. His 2018 Prizm trading cards are selling for outrageous prices, but I think as long as the Bills aren’t done, neither is that profit potential. I really like his Prizm Red, White and Blue rookie card, which can be found in retail cello packs from that year. 2018 products are still a solid buy, as we’ve got Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield and Saquon Barkley in that class as well, and the prices dropped a bit with the Barkley injury and while Jackson struggled through some November chill.

GPP – Stefon Diggs and Devin Singletary have a few things going against them for maximum value. Diggs rookies are in Minnesota Vikings gear, and Singletary splits the backfield with Zack Moss – who’s a solid rookie buy that hasn’t seen much of a jump at all. I might pivot to cheaper low-numbered 2020 Diggs parallels instead of shelling out big bucks for his Vikings trading cards.

Punt – Gabriel Davis could have a solid career if he cuts down on the stupid penalties and continues to improve. There’s a lot to like about him and his cards are very affordable – but the Bills have lots of skill position players who could overshadow him.

Some of the Gabriel Davis cards I’ve collected this past year. He’s a physically gifted receiver in a good spot for production in Buffalo.

Baltimore Ravens

Cash – Lamar Jackson falls just behind Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen and ahead of Baker Mayfield (more on him later). He’s almost a GPP buy because of the questions about his long-term viability, but I think there’s still plenty of growth potential. If the Ravens can pull off a couple of playoff wins and he plays well – we could see an immediate jump back to the where the prices were in 2019.

GPP – J.K. Dobbins is probably the best buy on the Ravens right now, and his cards remain cheap because he shares backfield duties with Gus Edwards and Mark Ingram II. That won’t last, so get yourself one of his rookies.

Punt – Patrick Queen and Devin Duvernay are cheap and while defensive players don’t fare all that well, standout Ravens ILBs have a legacy all their own. Duvernay has a lot of talent but needs some development before his cards do anything at all.

Tennessee Titans

Cash – Derrick Henry is a beast, and there’s a live eBay auction right now for a PSA 10 Gem Mint example of his 2016 Prizm Silver rookie. It’ll be interesting to see how high it goes, since the recent sold examples encompass a wide range from $450 to well over $600.

GPP – Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown trading cards have some juice, but they’d have a lot more if the Titans somehow went to the Super Bowl. Hey they came close last year!

Punt – I might invest in a few Darrynton Evans and Corey Davis (2017) rookie cards, but they are definitely punts that would need a few planets to align before they saw a discernible jump.

I’ve had this card since I pulled the redemption card in a 2017 Panini Phoenix hobby box that yielded terrible autos — but one awesome Rookie Rising parallel of Patrick Mahomes #d/49 that I sold raw (like a chump) a couple of years ago. If I only knew how high his cards would go in the ensuing two years…

The Rest: Colts, Browns, Steelers

Indianapolis Colts

Cash – I highly recommend buying up the Colts in team breaks for their talented rookies – led by Jonathan Taylor. Taylor’s trading cards are on the rise but still affordable – and there’s lots of excellent products to choose from (2020 Mosaic, Prizm Draft, Prizm and Phoenix are my favorites).

GPP – Michael Pittman, Jr. has a great frame and a bright future in the NFL. We’ve seen flashes of what he’s capable of, but he’s lost a bit in the exceptional 2020 WR class.

Punt – Jacob Eason base cards are dirt cheap – because his future is uncertain compared to the likes of Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa and even QB-in-waiting Jordan Love. Other than being buried on the depth chart for the rest of 2020, the biggest knock on his future is his mobility. If he has elite upside, it’s more Peyton Manning than Patrick Mahomes, since he doesn’t operate well in the muddy pockets that characterize modern NFL football.

Cleveland Browns

Cash – Baker Mayfield cards are selling for about one-quarter of what Josh Allen cards are commanding at the moment, which is pretty insane when you consider that both QBs have unlimited potential. Raw 2018 Prizm base rookies can be had for $15-20, and they’re hard to find in a PSA 10. If you see one of those for under $1K, buy it.

GPP – Nick Chubb is a stud, and he’s part of that solid 2018 draft class. If I were a Browns fan, I’d be buying up all his stuff. I might just do it anyway.

This 1/1 NFL Shield card of Chubb is for sale on eBay.

Punt – I have a really sweet 2020 Harrison Bryant Prizm Draft Picks auto (numbered 6/25) for sale on eBay, and I get lowball offers for it all the time. I might just pull it off my listings if he shines in the playoffs.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Cash – Some Ben Roethlisberger trading cards are quite expensive but base rookies still have some growth potential, especially if he can make another run at the Lombardi trophy. Sadly, I don’t think this team has the running game to get it done.

GPP – JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool are all decent buys, but their long-term value depends on the future of the QB position.

Punt – Anthony McFarland, Jr. is my buy-low guy, and I don’t think he’s been given a fair shot at touches with the other Steelers RBs struggling so much this season. Maybe he’ll break out in 2021.

Stay tuned for Part 2 — the NFC!

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Week 14 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown Preview: Ravens at Browns

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 14 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 14 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Lamar Jackson (DK $17,700, FD $17,000)

Pivot: Baker Mayfield (DK $15,000, FD $15,000)

Contrarian #1: Nick Chubb (DK $15,000, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #2: Mark Andrews (DK $13,200, FD $10,500)

DK Punts: Willie Snead IV ($8,700) and Harrison Bryant ($6,300)

DK Contrarian Punts: Devin Duvernay ($2,400) and Marvin Hall ($300)

Last season, it would have sounded a bit crazy to suggest that Baker Mayfield would be a viable pivot from Lamar Jackson in this matchup, but here we are. You’re probably going to need at least one of them in your lineup this week, and there’s a few ways we can even fit both.

Neither of these defenses has played up to their abilities the past couple of weeks, but both are capable of posting double-digit fantasy totals, so we’ll have to keep them in mind as we construct our showdown rosters. They haven’t met since Week 1, when the Ravens were dominant from the start – and if I had to lean toward one of them it would be the Ravens DST since the Browns DST will be without Denzel Ward (calf).

The Ravens have several position players of interest, with Mark Andrews and rookie J.K. Dobbins sporting the highest upside. Andrews had a pair of TDs in the first meeting with Cleveland, and is coming off a two-game absence due to COVID-19, while Dobbins has assumed a much larger workload with capable RB Gus Edwards and veteran Mark Ingram II taking a backseat in recent weeks.

I like the price and target total over the past four weeks (25) for Willie Snead IV, and while it’s hard to trust Marquise Brown, Hollywood is always a big play away from making a huge impact. Devin Duvernay is a longshot DFS play but a very talented rookie WR and playmaker and capable of filling out a winning GPP entry.

For the Browns, we need to prioritize Nick Chubb, who has TDs and 100+ rushing yards in three of his past four games (and 522 total yards over that four-game span as well) since returning from a knee injury. Kareem Hunt is an expensive but viable change-of-pace back who lacks the same upside unless the Browns are in a negative game script – a possibility we should plan for in some of our GPPs.

Receivers Jarvis Landry and Rashard Higgins are soaking up most of the targets, and both have ben productive, while Austin Hooper’s absence (doubtful with a neck injury) could mean more looks for explosive rookie TE Harrison Bryant. Opportunistic rookie wideout Donovan Peoples-Jones is also a viable option with plenty of big play ability, especially in play action. It’ll also be interesting to see if recently acquired deep threat Marvin Hall sees some action, as he’s a game-breaking value at $300/200 on DK if he catches even one long throw.

As always, we should consider Ravens K Justin Tucker, who has at least 8 DK points in nine of 12 games this season (and double-digit fantasy output in five of those games) and Cody Parkey, who has 31 DK points over his last three games.

Week 14 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Go into your GPP builds without a narrative plan this week. Use the writeup and flex list below to help narrow your player pool and find a winning path.

DO: Include Nick Chubb somewhere. He’s been averaging about 100 yards and a TD every week since coming back, so I wouldn’t recommended fading him without using Kareem Hunt in a negative game script narrative build.

DON’T: Play anyone who is inactive. Pay attention to the breaking news and pivot as needed.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Lamar Jackson
  2. Baker Mayfield
  3. Nick Chubb
  4. Mark Andrews
  5. J.K. Dobbins
  6. Jarvis Landry
  7. Marquise Brown
  8. Rashard Higgins
  9. Willie Snead IV
  10. Kareem Hunt
  11. Ravens DST
  12. Justin Tucker
  13. Browns DST
  14. Cody Parkey
  15. Gus Edwards
  16. Donovan Peoples-Jones
  17. Harrison Bryant
  18. Mark Ingram II
  19. Devin Duvernay
  20. Marvin Hall
  21. David Njoku
  22. Miles Boykin
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NFLDaily Fantasy Sports

Week 3 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown Preview: Chiefs at Ravens

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 3 NFL DFS contests!

Week 3 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 3 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Lamar Jackson (DK $19,500, FD $16,500)

Pivot: Travis Kelce (DK $15,000, FD $13,000)

Contrarian #1: Patrick Mahomes (DK $18,000, FD $16,000)

Contrarian #2: Mark Andrews (DK $12,000, FD $12,000)

Pricing is incredibly tight this week for the Monday night showdown, with both QBs over $16K on FanDuel, making it nearly impossible to fit both in without punting more than one spot. But because of Lamar Jackson’s ability to take over the game (and let’s face it – his team is the favorite to win tonight), we have to consider him for the MVP spot. It’s a lot more feasible on FD, but the move on DraftKings may be to find a low-owned CPT by picking one of the TEs (Travis Kelce is my favorite play) or a different Chiefs position player who might find a loophole in the Ravens defense to exploit. I may have one or two lineups with Patrick Mahomes as MVP, but I prefer Jackson.

The matchup for Mahomes is bad, and it’s not much better for Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but at least the latter’s ability to rack up PPR points (full on DK, half on FD) makes him a worthy flex play in Ravens stacks that focus on Jackson and TE Mark Andrews.

Tyreek Hill’s speed makes him worthy of consideration, and if we’re fading Hill then we’ve got to have some shares of Mecole Hardman, who’s yet to really break out this season despite his ubiquitous big-play ability.

The strategy of starting two Ravens RBs like Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins is viable, but assuming they both score enough to warrant inclusion means we’re probably using Mahomes and the Chiefs passing game with them instead of Lamar.

Normally I’d ignore the kickers, but in a game that could see this many points, we have to consider that some of them will come via the legs of Justin Tucker and Harrison Butker.

Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Play both defenses in this one.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Use players with almost no shot of seeing the field, regardless of their salary – though sub-$2K players on DraftKings (who may have some impact in possible game narratives) include Gus Edwards (Ravens blowout) and Darwin Thompson (Darrel Williams ankle issues).

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Lamar Jackson
  2. Travis Kelce
  3. Patrick Mahomes
  4. Mark Andrews
  5. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
  6. Tyreek Hill
  7. Marquise Brown
  8. Mark Ingram II
  9. Justin Tucker
  10. Harrison Butker
  11. J.K. Dobbins
  12. Mecole Hardman
  13. Willie Snead IV
  14.  Ravens DST
  15.  Miles Boykin
  16.  DeMarcus Robinson
  17.  Gus Edwards
  18.  Darrel Williams
  19.  Chiefs DST
  20.  Sammy Watkins (questionable, neck)

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