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Kyle Larson

NASCAR DFS: DraftKings DFS analysis for Martinsville

Chris Bouchard 5 years ago

written by Chris Bouchard

Just 4 events left after a crazy finish in Kansas that saw Joey Logano edge out Brad Keselowski for the last of the 8 playoff spots. Now we head to Martinsville in NASCAR DFS to start the final-four playoff push for Miami. Kyle Busch leads the playoff standings with 46 points followed closely by Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin.

***Current Playoff Standings. The top 4 after Martinsville, Texas, and Phoenix race for the title in Miami on November 17th***

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The Martinsville Speedway is a 0.52 mile track that opened in 1947. The STP 500 is ran in the Spring and this race, the First Data 500, is always in the Fall. Jimmie Johnson and Hendrick Motorsports have dominated this event in the past as Johnson has 6 wins, with the last in 2016, and Hendrick Motorsports has 16 wins since 1987. Chevrolet dominated with 6 straight wins from 2011 to 2016, but Toyota and Ford have won the last two with Kyle Busch and Joey Logano. Denny Hamlin is the only other multiple winner of this event, winning back to back in 2009-2010. Johnson and Hamlin also have won the Spring STP 500 3 times each with Brad Keselowski winning it twice.

Here were my pre-qualifying NASCAR DFS rankings. This is a race where the cream usually rises to the top, and I like to choose drivers that qualify well. Sometimes you are forced to go outside the top 10 for value, but otherwise the top is best. You will also see the best drivers are slightly more expensive this week.

NASCAR DFS High-Priced

Denny Hamlin $11,000
Joey Logano $10,100
Kyle Busch $11,800

Mid-Tier

Alex Bowman $8,300
William Byron $8,000
Jimmie Johnson $8,100

Value Plays

Ty Dillon $6,200
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $7,000
Paul Menard $7,100

Qualifying was not too surprising. Denny Hamlin took the pole and will be my main play for the race. Chase Elliott qualified 2nd, but due to a blown engine in practice, he will be starting at the rear of the field. The other playoff drivers were all over the grid with Truex Jr. 3rd, Blaney 6th, Joey Logano 10th, Kyle Busch 13th, Larson 14th, and Kevin Harvick a disappointing 22nd.

I decided to play only 3 lineups this weekend. Hamlin is in all three of them, then I mixed in the rest of my favorite plays. I was planning on playing deeper, but I decided to go with less lineups in more contests. My best week ever in NASCAR DFS was using one lineup that pushed over 600 points, so lets hope this strategy works again. My driver usage is below. Good Luck!

***DraftKings DFS Picks for Martinsville***

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I am going with the under for both drivers in this play. Elliott is at the back of the pack to start and I do not see Busch contending. Neither will lead enough laps to get the needed Fantasy Points.

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5 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR DFS: DraftKings DFS analysis for Kansas

Chris Bouchard 5 years ago

written by Chris Bouchard

Just 5 events left after an amazing race at Talladega last weekend. 10 drivers are still in the chase for the last 6 spots in the playoffs with Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney already guaranteed spots into the next round. The Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Sunday should be very interesting as some below the cut line are in must-win situations. Those above the cut line need to stay aggressive, but must avoid a DNF.

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The Kansas Speedway is a 1.5 mile track that opened in 2001 and has become a main cog in the playoff chase. Chevrolet has won 10 of the 18 events and 3 drivers in the field (Johnson, Harvick, and Logano) have won twice. Chase Elliott won last year’s event. The Digital Ally 400 event is also held at the Kansas track in May. Harvick and Johnson have each also won this event. Brad Keselowski is the only 2-time winner including this year’s event, which had a nice mix of chalk and value plays in the top 10.

***2019 DIGITAL ALLY 400 RESULTS AT KANSAS***

Below were my pre-qualifying DFS rankings. There was a huge focus on the drivers in the playoffs, but narrowing in on the value plays with Top-10 potential is crucial.

High Priced

Joey Logano $9,800
Brad Keselowski $9,600
Kevin Harvick $11,000

Mid-Tier

Clint Bowyer $8,800
Jimmie Johnson $8,000
William Byron $8,200

Value Plays

Chris Buescher $6,700
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $7,000
Ryan Newman $7,300

Qualifying gave two playoff chase drivers some issues as Kevin Harvick was not able to qualify after after failing inspection and will start at the rear of the field. Martin Truex Jr. failed inspection twice and qualified 11th. Both have lost their crew chiefs for rest of the weekend. Harvick instantly becomes the chalk of the event in DFS. It will be hard to fade him. Rookie Daniel Hemric took the pole at just over 178 MPH. David Ragan was a surprise #2 qualifier followed by Blaney, Keselowski, and Larson in the top 5.

Kyle Busch continues to qualify poorly, finishing 18th as did other playoff chase competitors Denny Hamlin (23rd) and Joey Logano (29th). There will be a ton of jostling for position as these drivers try to move their way to the top.
I have included my final driver percentages for Kansas below over 41 lineups. My “OPTIMAL” lineup will include Harvick, Elliott, and Keselowski with 3 value plays. I am using this lineup in a single entry event. Good Luck Sunday!

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5 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS at New Hampshire: Picks and Qualifying Tidbits

Emely Sharman 5 years ago

written by Emely Sharman

The NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series heads to New Hampshire for the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301. This comes after one of the best finishes we have seen this year, and it was between the Busch Brothers. A late caution set up a Green-White-Checkered finish in which Kurt Busch raced around the outside of brother, Kyle, to get the win. Kurt Busch led 42 laps on his way to the win at Kentucky. Moving ahead, we will take a look at the top NASCAR DFS values at New Hampshire. Salaries are based on DraftKings.

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Strategy

New Hampshire is just over one mile and they will run 301 laps in this one. This is not a track where qualifying up front means a whole lot as shown by the Top 10 in past years. There has been at least five drivers who qualified 10th or worse who have finished in the Top 10 in the last three years. There are often one or two drivers who will lead a lot of laps here, so getting one of those drivers will be key. This is a track to try and vary your NASCAR DFS team with high upside Place Differential guys and a driver or two who could lead a lot of laps.

High Salary ($9,000)

Kyle Busch ($11,900)

Kyle Busch is once again the top priced driver and he has been in contention here a lot lately. Busch has three Top 3s in his last four starts here and has led laps in each of the last five, over 95 on three occasions. His low Driver Rating over those five is 116. He has three wins at New Hampshire in his career and also has four runner-up finishes. Busch is always a good choice for NASCAR DFS if you can fit him in but it will be tough to build a team around him this week at his expensive price tag.

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,500)

Once again the runner-up in price is Martin Truex Jr. and for good reason. The series has featured a lot of quality tracks for Truex Jr. lately and this is no different. Although Truex Jr. does not have a win here in his career he has four straight finishes of seventh or better and crazy good Driver Ratings. His low DR in the past five years here is 117 and he peaked at 134.6 in 2017. He has also led a ton of laps here. In the past five races at New Hampshire, he has never led less than 85 laps and has led a combined 596 laps in that span. Truex Jr. should be a good NASCAR DFS pick this week.

Kyle Larson ($9,400)

We now get to a little more affordable drivers in this range. Larson has been very good at New Hampshire in the past. He has the third best Average Finishing Position, behind Busch and Truex Jr., at 5.33. Larson posted back to back runner-up finishes in 2016 and 2017 with Driver Averages of 112.8 and 122 in those two races. He finished 12th last year after starting 20th. Larson is coming off a solid stretch of races including a fourth place finish last week at Kentucky. I love his value here as I think he should be above the $10,000 mark at a track he loves and with a boatload of momentum.

Kurt Busch ($9,200)

Kurt Busch is coming off of his first win of 2019 after he believes he should have won the week before at Daytona. Beating his younger brother head to head has Busch’s confidence sky high coming into the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301. He also has a quality history at New Hampshire and discounting his DNF in 2017, he has three straight finishes of eighth or better with Driver Ratings of 91, 97, and 124 last year. He is another NASCAR DFS play that I think is underpriced.

Erik Jones ($9,000)

Erik Jones is starting to heat up as the season moves along and added a third place finish last week at Kentucky. He had 21 of the fastest laps in that race and put up 70 NASCAR DFS points. Although Erik Jone’s Average Finishing Position of 20.33 (includes a DNF) leaves much to be desired at New Hampshire, he has shown flashes here in the past and is on a roll lately. In 2017, Jones ran in the Top 10 all day and finished sixth with a Driver Rating of 111.3. I like his momentum and value at the bottom end of this salary range.

Mid Salary ($8,900 – $7,000)

Ryan Blaney ($8,600)

Blaney is ranked as the 12th priced driver this week and I think that is once again too low for him. Blaney has back to back Top 10s at New Hampshire and comes in with a decent amount of momentum. He has been running well lately and has an average Driver Rating of over 99 here in the past two races. Since stages were introduced, he has picked up stage points every chance here, and finished stage two second in both events the past two years. Blaney is a Mid Salary NASCAR DFS driver who I think should be priced in the High Salary range.

Daniel Suarez ($7,800)

Suarez once again lands on this list and he has not shown a reason to not be included. After leading 46 laps last week and picking up an eighth place finish, Suarez should ride his momentum into this weekend. His average Fantasy Points is equal to or better than five drivers priced above him. He always comes at a great price and helps bring some upside for a Mid Salary pick. Suarez has two Top 10s in his three career races at New Hampshire. He has an Average Finish here of 12 over the past three years which is better than some big names, including Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, and Brad Keselowski. He should once again return positive NASCAR DFS value this week.

Ryan Newman ($7,600)

Newman comes into New Hampshire with a lot of momentum and some good track history. This has always been one of Newman’s favorite tracks and he has three wins here in his career. He finished sixth here last year with a Driver Rating of 86.8. He has four Top 10s in his last five races this year and is right on the edge of the points standings cutoff, which will only motivate him more to run well.

Low Salary ($6,900 and lower)

Austin Dillon ($6,900)

Dillon has once again dipped into the low salary range and it makes him a target for NASCAR DFS this week. Austin Dillon has never finished worse than 22nd at New Hampshire and has seven Top 20s in nine chances here. His Driver Rating has been steady in the upper 60s and that gives him good value at this price.

Bubba Wallace Jr. ($5,500)

Another name that they refuse to show respect on NASCAR DFS sites is Bubba Wallace Jr. He is not astar, obviously, but to be priced this low doesn’t seem right. He has been a safe play this year and has not finished outside the Top 30 in his last 10 starts. Wallace Jr. has one start at New Hampshire in which he qualified 27th and finished 24th, which gives plenty of value at a near minimum price.

Post Qualifying Tidbits

Alex Bowman ($8,900) has huge value for this weekend after not being able to put a lap down. He will start in last place and has huge Place Differential upside. Bowman went from off my list to a very valuable pick, especially in cash games, as he will be highly owned.

Kevin Harvick’s ($11,100) value also went up because of Place Differential upside. He qualified 14th and should work his way into the Top 5.

Kyle Larson ($9,400) also had a value jump but he was never expected to qualify great here. He will start 15th and is still my favorite pick of the week for New Hampshire.

Value Increased Post Qualifying

Denny Hamlin ($9,700)

Ryan Newman ($7,600)

Austin Dillon ($6,900)

Value Decreased Post Qualifying

Brad Keselowski ($10,700)

Jimmie Johnson ($8,000)

Matt DiBenedetto ($6,600)

NASCAR Wild Card Pick (High Risk- High Reward)

Chase Elliott ($10,000)

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5 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS at Chicagoland: Picks and Preview

Emely Sharman 5 years ago

written by Emely Sharman

Chicagoland Speedway hosts the NASCAR Cup Series this upcoming weekend after a dominating performance from Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma. Truex Jr. led 59 of the 90 laps and held off a late charging Kyle Busch for the win. Those two were way in front of the third place finisher, Ryan Blaney, who was over 30 seconds behind. Truex Jr. ,has a great chance to get a repeat win as he won two of the last three races at Chicagoland to go with a fourth place finish last year.

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Outlook

Chicagoland is a 1.5 mile track, with 267 laps, where starting up front does not always mean a driver will finish up front. Only one time since 2005 has the winner came from the front row. This shows that we could have some huge upside drivers who will be starting farther back in the pack. Checking back for our post-qualifying update will be key to putting together a good lineup. Let’s take a look at some of the best values on the slate before qualifying. Salaries are based on DraftKings.

High Salary ($9,000+)

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,900)

Coming off a dominating performance at Sonoma, Truex Jr. should again be the top play this week. He comes in as the third highest priced driver and I believe he should be the top priced. Kyle Busch, the highest priced driver, did win at the site last year but his recent history is not as good as Truex’s. That win was Busch’s only Top 5 since 2013. Truex Jr. has three straight Top 5s and comes in with more confidence and momentum than any other driver in the series. He has not had a Driver Rating under 108 in his last four races at Chicagoland and was over 126 twice. Truex Jr. will be my main target among the high salary drivers.

Chase Elliott ($9,700)

Elliott has a great history at Chicagoland and comes in at his most affordable price since April. He has raced at this site three times in the Cup series with finishes of third, second, and 19th. Even in the 19th place finish, he was second and fourth in the two stages, showing he ran better than he finished. Elliott was the third best car at Sonoma last week before blowing his engine and he should have some confidence coming in. Elliott had 13 straight Top 15s, and five Top 5s in his last six races before the past two down weeks. He should be able to get back to that form at one of his best tracks. Elliott has the top Driver Rating at this track with a 111.4, and the best Average Running Position by a decent margin at 5.064. Elliott should run in the Top 5 most of the day and will be in a great position late in the day.

Kyle Larson ($9,500)

Larson has finished no worse than seventh in all but one of his career starts at Chicagoland. His career Driver Rating of 101.9 ranks fourth in the series and his Average Running Position of 8.848 ranks third. He is behind Jimmie Johnson in both stats and most of Johnson’s excellence at this track came back in the early 2000s, so you can bump him up in those stats in recent years. Larson has yet to put it all together in a points race this year but this is a great track for him and he should be able to contend.

Mid Salary ($8,900 – $7,000)

Denny Hamlin ($8,500)

Denny Hamlin has a really good track history at Chicagoland and has not finished worse than seventh since 2013. His DR over the past five years averaged over 102. He has also ran pretty well recently and led at least one lap in each of the Cup Series’ last four races. Hamlin should be priced above $9,000 at one of his best tracks and he provides great value at Chicagoland.

Ryan Blaney ($8,300)

Blaney is coming into this weekend at Chicagoland with some momentum after finishing third at Sonoma. He has two Top 10s in a row and four straight Top 15s. Blaney’s career at Chicagoland doesn’t really stand out, as he has an Average Finish of 11th and a DR of 86.7. He also comes in at his lowest price in any points race this year and $2,800 under where he peaked. Blaney has shown the ability to get on some hot streaks and I believe he can use his recent momentum to better his career Chicagoland numbers. He seems underpriced here and should return really good value.

Aric Almirola ($8,200)

We are working off of only one race to show us Almirola’s potential at Chicagoland. When he ran with the 43 car, he didn’t show much and only had one Top 10 in his six starts. Last year, driving for Stewart-Haas, although the finish doesn’t show it, Almirola ran really well. His Driver Rating was very high at 109.8 and he led 70 laps but finished 25th. This is a price where we can invest in Almirola.

Jimmie Johnson ($8,000)

This is another track, like Sonoma, where Johnson used to dominate and has fell off a bit lately but has still been serviceable. He has finished no worse than 14th since 2010 and although he doesn’t have a win at the site he has been very good. His career DR of 110.2 is second best in the series since ’05. As said, this number has dropped lately but not plummeted and his DR is at 97.7 over his last five races at Chicagoland. Johnson should once again return good DFS value at this low of a price.

Low Salary ($6,900 and lower)

Austin Dillon ($6,900)

If Dillon continues to be priced this low I will continue to roster him. His career at Chicagoland is not too bad other than a few outlier DNFs. He has finished 16th or better in the three races other than his DNFs. His DR (74.6) is far superior at Chicagoland than that of the other drivers in this salary range. Dillon should again be able to be counted on for a Top 15-20 finish with some upside.

Cornerstones

The two cornerstones are the two drivers who I think provide the best values this week.

Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin both seemed to be underpriced and provide great DFS value this weekend. I think Truex Jr. will again compete for this win this week and Denny Hamlin should run in the Top 5 for a majority of this race and could also get his first win of the year here.

*Check back after qualifying for the post qualifying report. This will be very important this week as Chicagoland has proven to be an easy place to pass and pick up spots gained points.

5 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

DFS NASCAR Post Qualifying Report: Sonoma

Ethan Thiel 6 years ago

written by Ethan Thiel

The Cup Series is at Sonoma, California this week and qualifying was Saturday afternoon. I’ll take you through some big names and how they fared and what it means for their DFS values going into Sunday’s race. You can see the full pre-qualifying breakdown by following the link here.

My favorite pick for Sunday’s race did not change after Qualifying as Martin Truex Jr. ran a pretty good time and will line up eighth. He should give great value and is still my pick to get the win.

My other huge upside play is Kurt Busch, who has been great at Sonoma and will start 16th Sunday. He started outside the Top 15 both of the past two races here and finished sixth and seventh. His low starting spot does not worry me at all.

The top priced driver this week is Kevin Harvick and he did not run well in qualifying. He will start 23rd. This gives Harvick huge upside as he has shown he can drive his way up from the back. In 2016, Harvick started 25th and finished sixth.

Kyle Larson is starting on the pole for the third consecutive year at Sonoma. Although he has never qualified outside the Top 5, his best finish is 12th in 2016. He could contend but his upside is low and he should not be considered for your lineup.

Chris Buescher qualified 10th and has been pretty good at Sonoma over the past few years. Some people might try to get cute and roster the lesser known names but I think there are better options in his price range.

Included in those options are Alex Bowman and Aric Almirola, who qualified 12th and 15th respectively. These are good starting spots for these two as it shows they have relatively fast cars and they have room for upside.

Austin Dillon should provide good value Sunday. He starts 26th and has never finished worse than 22nd here. Last year he started 27th and finished 16th.

The lowest priced driver I originally gave you was Ryan Preece. He will start 20th and I still like him as a big value pick after his Xfinity road course stats.

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6 years ago 0 comments

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Kyle Larson

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Strategy

High Salary ($9,000)

Kyle Busch ($11,900)

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,500)

Kyle Larson ($9,400)

Kurt Busch ($9,200)

Erik Jones ($9,000)

Mid Salary ($8,900 – $7,000)

Ryan Blaney ($8,600)

Daniel Suarez ($7,800)

Ryan Newman ($7,600)

Low Salary ($6,900 and lower)

Austin Dillon ($6,900)

Bubba Wallace Jr. ($5,500)

Post Qualifying Tidbits

Value Increased Post Qualifying

Value Decreased Post Qualifying

NASCAR Wild Card Pick (High Risk- High Reward)

Outlook

High Salary ($9,000+)

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,900)

Chase Elliott ($9,700)

Kyle Larson ($9,500)

Mid Salary ($8,900 – $7,000)

Denny Hamlin ($8,500)

Ryan Blaney ($8,300)

Aric Almirola ($8,200)

Jimmie Johnson ($8,000)

Low Salary ($6,900 and lower)

Austin Dillon ($6,900)

Cornerstones

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