JT’s Paper Plays give the best shot to make a PROFIT and WIN DAILY.
JT’s Paper Plays give the best shot to make a PROFIT and WIN DAILY.
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Today we have a solid slate of football. As is tradition, we have a 3 game thanksgiving slate. The darling of the day appears to be the Dallas/Las Vegas game as it has a 51 projected total. Below you’ll find my top picks on MKF.
Josh Allen vs. New Orleans – 265.5 Yards
Saints have shown the propensity to give up some big games this season as they’ve given up over 265 yards passing 5 times this season. When doing my research for this, I automatically threw out their last game against the Eagles as they only gave up 147 yards but that was against a team that runs a 70/30 run/pass split.
Bills are in must win mode now. They’re a half game back of the Patriots and can’t afford to lose this game. If they are going to win, they need a vintage game from Josh Allen. You know, one of those 300+ passing games with multiple touchdowns. Allen has gotten to the 266 yard mark a handful of times this season and he does it again today.
Derek Carr vs. Dallas Cowboys – 260.5 Yards
If you would have asked me if Carr could get to this number earlier in the season it would have been an easy yes for me. Over the first 5 weeks of the season the Cowboys gave up more than 290 yards passing in each game. However, over the last few weeks they’ve tightened things up a bit. The most they’ve given up over their past 5 games is 260 yards which was last week against Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Carr himself has hit this number 70% of the time this season. Most recently in week 10 against the Chiefs. I personally think this is going to be a tough matchup for Carr today and he struggles in the air. The Cowboys are going to be extra motivated to play today after a tough loss this past weekend. I’m going w/ the under on this one.
Josh Allen vs. Derek Carr (+5.5 yards)
I’ve already highlighted the two of these guys in the More or Less section. Even with the extra 5.5 yards Allen should have a better game than Carr today. I’m choosing Allen over Carr.
Stefon Diggs vs. Darren Waller (+11.5 yards)
With my expectation that Allen has a great game today comes the expectation that Diggs follows suit. Diggs is Allen’s main target. Over the past 4 weeks Diggs has been targeted on average more than 9 times per game.
During that stretch he also has a game of 162 yards. While I don’t think he gets to 162 yards today, I do expect him to get over the century mark. On the defensive side, the Saints have really squeezed receivers of late. In the last 6 weeks they’ve allowed more than 190 yards receiving to wide receivers only once.
Switching over to Waller he is essentially the Raiders offense. When he’s in the lineup he is the main target for Derek Carr. While I don’t think that Carr has a great day, I do think that Carr does enough with Waller for him to be a top offensive star on the day. We’ve seen Carr have subpar games but for Waller to do well in those.
Last week is a prime example. Carr only threw for 215 yards last week against the Bengals. 116 yards of those yards went to Waller. Cowboys have given up some big yardage games to tight ends this season and they should do it again today. My pick here is Waller, especially given the extra 11.5 yards.
Good luck and hope you cash!
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With the start of the NFL Playoffs, Collector’s Corner will take a look at what trading cards could see a bump based on their impending gridiron success. We’ll start with the AFC.
Note: Collector’s Corner will use my DFS-derived Cash/GPP/Punt terminology (introduced in part 2 of my NBA preview piece) to break down the best buys – “Cash” being solid, low-risk with a high ceiling but moderate growth potential, “GPP” being a little more risky but marked by enormous growth potential, and “Punts” – which can be had cheaply but don’t offer quite the same upside/growth potential as the Cash and GPP plays.
Cash – Patrick Mahomes rookie trading cards remain the most sought-after and expensive slabs on the market. There’s still some room for growth, and the Chiefs appear poised for another Super Bowl run. If you can’t afford the 2017 rookies, there are plenty of 2018-2020 products that still command high prices and are worth grabbing. And the second-year PSA 9s won’t break your bankroll.
GPP – Tyreek Hill and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are probably the two players with the most growth potential on the Chiefs, as a 2016 Panini Prizm Silver (in a PSA 10) sold for just $375 in November, and the injury to Clyde Edwards-Helaire (and acquisition of Le’Veon Bell) slowed the hype train on the Chiefs rookie RB. I just bought a gorgeous SGC 10 of Hill’s Prizm Silver rookie for $275 – I like the SGC slabs better anyway and this could easily be a $450-500 trading card if he shines again in the playoffs.
Punt – Travis Kelce is a great player, but tight end trading cards don’t typically command the prices that QBs, RBs and even WRS do. Excluding his beautiful 2013 National Treasures autos and RPAs, Kelce’s rookies are affordable and prime for more growth as collectors realize what a generational talent he is at the position and how he’s a near lock for HOF enshrinement in Canton.
Cash – Josh Allen is the guy to collect right now, period. I’m buying up Prizms and Donruss Rated Rookies – as well as any and all parallels when I can – and I’ve already seen 50% growth in a die-cut 2018 Obsidian Cutting Edge rookie patch card (pictured below) I got for under $50 a couple of weeks ago. His 2018 Prizm trading cards are selling for outrageous prices, but I think as long as the Bills aren’t done, neither is that profit potential. I really like his Prizm Red, White and Blue rookie card, which can be found in retail cello packs from that year. 2018 products are still a solid buy, as we’ve got Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield and Saquon Barkley in that class as well, and the prices dropped a bit with the Barkley injury and while Jackson struggled through some November chill.
GPP – Stefon Diggs and Devin Singletary have a few things going against them for maximum value. Diggs rookies are in Minnesota Vikings gear, and Singletary splits the backfield with Zack Moss – who’s a solid rookie buy that hasn’t seen much of a jump at all. I might pivot to cheaper low-numbered 2020 Diggs parallels instead of shelling out big bucks for his Vikings trading cards.
Punt – Gabriel Davis could have a solid career if he cuts down on the stupid penalties and continues to improve. There’s a lot to like about him and his cards are very affordable – but the Bills have lots of skill position players who could overshadow him.
Cash – Lamar Jackson falls just behind Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen and ahead of Baker Mayfield (more on him later). He’s almost a GPP buy because of the questions about his long-term viability, but I think there’s still plenty of growth potential. If the Ravens can pull off a couple of playoff wins and he plays well – we could see an immediate jump back to the where the prices were in 2019.
GPP – J.K. Dobbins is probably the best buy on the Ravens right now, and his cards remain cheap because he shares backfield duties with Gus Edwards and Mark Ingram II. That won’t last, so get yourself one of his rookies.
Punt – Patrick Queen and Devin Duvernay are cheap and while defensive players don’t fare all that well, standout Ravens ILBs have a legacy all their own. Duvernay has a lot of talent but needs some development before his cards do anything at all.
Cash – Derrick Henry is a beast, and there’s a live eBay auction right now for a PSA 10 Gem Mint example of his 2016 Prizm Silver rookie. It’ll be interesting to see how high it goes, since the recent sold examples encompass a wide range from $450 to well over $600.
GPP – Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown trading cards have some juice, but they’d have a lot more if the Titans somehow went to the Super Bowl. Hey they came close last year!
Punt – I might invest in a few Darrynton Evans and Corey Davis (2017) rookie cards, but they are definitely punts that would need a few planets to align before they saw a discernible jump.
Cash – I highly recommend buying up the Colts in team breaks for their talented rookies – led by Jonathan Taylor. Taylor’s trading cards are on the rise but still affordable – and there’s lots of excellent products to choose from (2020 Mosaic, Prizm Draft, Prizm and Phoenix are my favorites).
GPP – Michael Pittman, Jr. has a great frame and a bright future in the NFL. We’ve seen flashes of what he’s capable of, but he’s lost a bit in the exceptional 2020 WR class.
Punt – Jacob Eason base cards are dirt cheap – because his future is uncertain compared to the likes of Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa and even QB-in-waiting Jordan Love. Other than being buried on the depth chart for the rest of 2020, the biggest knock on his future is his mobility. If he has elite upside, it’s more Peyton Manning than Patrick Mahomes, since he doesn’t operate well in the muddy pockets that characterize modern NFL football.
Cash – Baker Mayfield cards are selling for about one-quarter of what Josh Allen cards are commanding at the moment, which is pretty insane when you consider that both QBs have unlimited potential. Raw 2018 Prizm base rookies can be had for $15-20, and they’re hard to find in a PSA 10. If you see one of those for under $1K, buy it.
GPP – Nick Chubb is a stud, and he’s part of that solid 2018 draft class. If I were a Browns fan, I’d be buying up all his stuff. I might just do it anyway.
Punt – I have a really sweet 2020 Harrison Bryant Prizm Draft Picks auto (numbered 6/25) for sale on eBay, and I get lowball offers for it all the time. I might just pull it off my listings if he shines in the playoffs.
Cash – Some Ben Roethlisberger trading cards are quite expensive but base rookies still have some growth potential, especially if he can make another run at the Lombardi trophy. Sadly, I don’t think this team has the running game to get it done.
GPP – JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool are all decent buys, but their long-term value depends on the future of the QB position.
Punt – Anthony McFarland, Jr. is my buy-low guy, and I don’t think he’s been given a fair shot at touches with the other Steelers RBs struggling so much this season. Maybe he’ll break out in 2021.
Stay tuned for Part 2 — the NFC!
The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday Night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 16 NFL DFS contests!
One of the biggest Week 16 NFL DFS slate-breaking possibilities on Monday night surrounds the forthcoming activation of John Brown, who’s been on IR with an ankle injury. The Bills have until 4 p.m. to get him on the active roster if he’s to take the field in the game. He’s already put up individual game scores of 19.0 and 18.2 in weeks 1 and 2, and 17.9 and 13.2 in weeks 9 and 10 – the last time he played for Buffalo. Those performances suggest he’ll be a major NFL DFS factor in the offensive game plan if he suits up tonight, and his price on both sites – including at the FD minimum $5K – are criminally low. UPDATE: Brown was activated from IR at 4 p.m. today and immediately placed on the COVID-19 reserve list as a close contact of T.J. Yeldon, who tested positive this weekend. He’ll likely stay inactive until Week 17 (if they need to improve their seeding) or in the Wild Card round.
If Brown is active, that might take a few prospective targets away from Cole Beasley, but the Beas operates primarily out of the slot and is still capable of monster games alongside Brown, who tweaked his ankle in the 4th quarter of Week 10 when the former Cowboys WR scored 30.9 DK points against the Cardinals.
Obviously, Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are great plays regardless of whether or not Brown suits up, but rookie playmaker Gabriel Davis would presumably see significantly fewer snaps if Brown is ready to go. I love the way that Davis goes and gets passes; he’s physical and uses his body well.
UPDATE: Expect a typical target share for Beasley and more looks for Davis with Brown inactive.
I like both Devin Singletary and Zack Moss, though it’s possible we see a few more snaps in passing situations go to Singletary over the next couple of weeks, since Allen and the Bills are closing in on an exclusive NFL record. They’ve have had 13 different players catch a touchdown pass in 2020, tying the NFL record set by the 2016 Atlanta Falcons. The record was tied when Allen hooked up a TD with Jake Kumerow in the second quarter last week. Singletary remains the odd man out among the Bills’ available skill position players, as both Moss and T.J. Yeldon already have TD receptions this year. If he doesn’t go to Singletary, KR Andre Roberts and LT Dion Dawkins are the only other regular players with any TD receptions in their careers.
On the other side, I only have interest in Cam Newton, Jakobi Meyers, James White and Damien Harris – who is a game-time decision with a lingering ankle injury that has capped his practice time these past two weeks. Harris was inactive in Week 15 and yielded his usual role to a rusty Sony Michel. Keep an eye on Jarrett Stidham too, since Newton could get pulled if he turns the ball over a lot or gets injured.
Michel could make a few of my builds if Harris doesn’t play, but the Bills run defense has been much better over the past few weeks – particularly because they’ve scored so many points that teams have been forced to play catchup through the air. I’ll have some shares of the Bills DST as well, since the return of a few key pieces and LB Matt Milano has seemingly rejuvenated this group.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.
DON’T: Go into your GPP builds without a narrative plan this week. Use the writeup and flex list below to help narrow your player pool and find a winning path.
DO: Play Josh Allen. He’s not a wise fade even though the matchup isn’t ideal.
DON’T: Forget about John Brown. If he’s active, he could play a major role in this game. …forget about Gabriel Davis, who’s got the talent and ability to make a huge impact again this week.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on Week 16 NFL DFS overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in one of the final Week 13 NFL DFS contests!
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
The Bills are slight favorites in this game, and Josh Allen sticks out as the player from both teams sporting the highest fantasy upside – though the recently effective running of both Devin Singletary and rookie Zack Moss may eat into Allen’s rushing TD total the rest of the way.
The main concern is that the 49ers neutralize Allen much in the same way the Broncos did Patrick Mahomes last night, and for that reason there’s no need to exclusively focus on the Bills QB. But there’s reason no obvious pivot on the 49ers – as the Bills defense has LB Matt Milano back and has shored up their injury issues in the secondary. I’d probably be willing to attack the Niners less-than-stellar secondary with Stefon Diggs and sprinkle in a couple of 49ers players, but salary is going to be problems if you play the CPT spot straight this week. I personally love rookie WR Gabriel Davis, though I may have more shares of Cole Beasley this week. I could see him confounding the Niners out of the slot.
The multi-headed 49ers running attack has a clear lead dog in Raheem Mostert – one of the toughest and most physical runners in the NFL. He returned to his normal role in a game against the Rams last week, and we’ll haver to pay attention to the gameday inactives to see if the 49ers sit any of Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon and Jeff Wilson – all of whom could have a significant role in cracking this showdown based on the their low salaries and upside should an injury or game script (the 49ers having to play from behind) come into play.
Both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are elite options for the 49ers, and I might be limiting my 49ers ownership to one or both of them in some builds – but I do have some abiding interest in Ross Dwelley, who has 8-12 point upside even if he gets a handful of targets. Jordan Reed may be the preferred fantasy TE, but Dwelley logs more snaps and the disparate pricing ($5,000 for Reed to just $800 for big Ross) make Dwelley a bit of a value. There’s even room for a sneaky Nick Mullens stack on DK with one of the big WRs and either Dwelley or Reed. But I’ll likely avoid both TEs on FanDuel.
The Bills might have a tougher time connecting with their TEs this week, as the Niners should do a good job defending Dawson Knox and Tyler Kroft.
Tyler Bass and Robbie Gould are both viable on both sites, though using either at the DK captain spot could provide ample salary relief and plenty of value if they kick a couple of 50-yarders.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Feel confined to a classic narrative this week. Kickers are in play and we could even see a big defensive play or two that changes the whole landscape of the showdown,
DO: Count on a better game this week from Stefon Diggs. Last week was an anomaly and I expect something closer to his usual 15-20 points.
DON’T: Forget about Brandon Aiyuk and Gabriel Davis. Both rookies have enormous upside in any matchup.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
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