This is the final Friday slate of the season and it’s been a joy providing pitching picks for you guys. That’s why we’re going to provide a bonus selection this week and give you six recommendations. That’s indicative of how much I like this slate and it should be a great day for pitching. With that in mind, let’s get into our 9/27 DFS pitching picks!
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This is easily the best cash game pitcher on the board. Not only do we have one of the best pitchers in the league here, we also have him in a superior matchup. Let’s begin with that opponent, facing a Giants team who ranks 28th in runs scored, OBP, OPS and xwOBA. That’s especially scary in a place like Oracle Park, which is easily one of the toughest parks in baseball. All of that make Buehler the best play of the day, with the Dodgers righty pitching to a 3.25 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 29 percent K rate. In his last start against San Fran, Buehler pitched seven scoreless innings while striking out nine batters. Buehler and the Dodgers are a –190 favorite in this fixture, if you needed any more incentive.
While Berrios has been sliding recently, it has lowered his price to this intriguing number. We’re still talking about a guy who has a 3.70 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. What really makes him enticing is the fact that he’s gone more than four innings in all 32 of his starts this season. That’s an unbelievable floor and it’s led to him scoring at least 39 FanDuel points in more than half of his starts. That 39-point mark appears to be very likely outcome against an offense like this, with the Royals ranked 25th in runs scored, 24th in OBP, 27th in OPS and 24th in xwOBA. That’s why Berrios and the Twins enter this matchup as a –230 favorite.
DeSclafani is a personal favorite of mine and he’s just one pitch away from being an elite starter. That’s really evident when you see that he’s allowed two runs or fewer in 17 of his 30 starts this season while allowing one or less 15 of those. He’s currently in the best stretch of his career right now too, pitching to a 2.05 ERA and 0.77 WHIP over his last seven starts. That’s horrific news for a Pirates lineup who will be without Josh Bell and Starling Marte. Those absences have led to Pittsburgh ranking bottom-five in runs scored, OBP and OPS for the month of September.
Velasquez is one of the riskiest pitchers in the league but facing the Marlins is a good way to limit that risk. The reason for that is because Miami sits bottom-two in runs scored, OBP, OPS and xwOBA. That’s a perfect recipe for a guy like Velasquez, with the right-hander posting a 4.21 career xFIP and 26 percent K rate. His swing-and-miss stuff has been pristine recently too, generating a 10.2 K/9 rate over his last 80 innings pitched. Vegas appears to like Velasquez too, making him a –180 favorite in this tasty matchup.
Nova’s price is way too friendly to avoid. While he’s mixed duds and gems all season long, this is one of those instances where he can produce for us. The reason for that is because he faces the Tigers, with the Motor City Kitties ranked last in runs scored, OBP, OPS, xwOBA and K rate. That puts any pitcher in play against them, especially a guy who’s had a resurgent season half. Over his last 13 starts, Nova is pitching to a 3.15 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. In his last two starts against this putrid offense, Nova has allowed just two runs across 13 innings of action, proving that these price tags are ridiculous.
I feel bad for the Angels. They’re currently without Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton and Tommy LaStella. That’s led to them sending out one of the worst lineups in baseball, which is evident by the fact that they have just 70 runs scored this month, the lowest total in the Majors. You can’t send out a lineup with guys like Michael Hermosillo, Jared Walsh, Taylor Ward, Kaleb Cowart and Anthony Bemboom and expect to succeed. That squarely puts Urquidy in play, as he’s actually allowed just one run in five of his last six starts while generating a 0.90 WHIP and 9.3 K.9 rate in that span. All of this has him and the Astros entering this matchup s a –210 favorite.
Jose Urquidy Over 4.5 Strikeouts
This prop is so low because the Angels almost never strike out but this is a different team. You can see that in the Urquidy write-up, with half of their lineup injured. That’s a nightmare against a pitcher who is rolling like Urquidy and I would be shocked if he doesn’t get at least six Ks.
I’m looking to follow up some great MLB DFS picks from last night with another batch of winning hurlers. It’s a nine-game slate with a couple big names and some fabulous value plays among a pretty large mess of unreliable arms and likely pitch counts. But I know we’re going to find some gems in this edition of 9/21 DFS pitching picks.
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Manaea is a huge home favorite (-340), he’s backed by a potent offensewith a high implied total (6.00), and the Rangers offense has been scufflinglately. Over the course of the season, Texas has struck out at a 25.7% rate, whichis third worst among MLB teams. Manaea (2-0, 0.50 ERA in three starts this season) gave up justthree hits and one walk while striking out six through 6.0 scoreless IP againstthis same Rangers team on Sunday – in a much tougher hitting environment inArlington. I feel comfortable going right back to the well in cash games andGPPs, as the 27-year-old hurler had 11 swinging strikes and 19 called strikesin that last outing.
The Twins are large favorites against the Royals and while I don’t like Berrios for a monster K game here in 9/21 DFS, he’s still a viable cash game play with the Kansas City implied run total languishing at just 3.39. Keep an eye on the weather before this one locks, because we could see a late start – but deploy him with confidence in a slate lacking in elite pitching options. The Twins offense should get him a win, and on FanDuel he could easily notch a quality start bonus – as he’s gone at least 6 IP and has given up less than 3 ER in three of his last four starts.
Buehler willlikely be on a pitch count, so he’s way too expensive for cash gamesconsidering he’s likely looking at around 5-6 IP. Still, his low WHIP (1.01) andelite strikeout rate (29.4%) mean he very well could fan 10 hitters even onsuch a short leash. The Rockies may have gotten a few licks on Clayton Kershawlast night, but they have a team K rate of 23.7% and shouldn’t have muchsuccess against this dominant young arm.
Fried (16-6, 4.25 ERA) allowed five runs on six hits while striking out just two hitters (and walking three Nationals) in just 2.1 innings in Washington during his last outing, but he’s a much better pitcher at home this season and he draws a great matchup against the Giants. Fried has been battered a bit in two consecutive starts and has given up at least three earned runs in five of his last six starts, but that should help keep some of the ownership off him here in a start where he looks like he could get a little chalky for the DFS Pros. There’s plenty to like once you check out the home/away splits in a little more detail and take into account the sometimes punchless Giants offense.
I’m a lot more interested in Cueto as a GPP play on FD, where he’s essentially a punt at 7,800 and doesn’t have to keep guys off base. The veteran should have a much easier path to making value by striking out a handful of Braves, even if he gets knocked out after 4 innings. There’s plenty of risk here because Cueto only has 6 Ks in his last 10 IP, but the price is right for FD GPPs and I’m looking for some contrarian angles in the mid-tier since Fried might be a little more chalky. Grabbing the other side of that chalk could pay off.
Once again, it’s a huge risk playing Sheffield in a hitter’s park like Camden Yards, but few pitchers on this slate have better strikeout potential against a weak opponent like the Orioles, and there’s an outside chance his team gets him a lead and a possible win. Forget the fact that he hasn’t notched a win in 2019 yet and focus on the metrics: He’s carrying a 10.13 K/9, 4.22 xFIP and 4.41 SIERA through his appearances despite an admittedly bad ERA, but his 12.4 SwStr% is promising.
You have to take some chances to win GPPs and I’ll have my fair share of Sheffield lineups on FD, though he’s a much riskier play on DK with such a high walk rate (4.91 BB/9 in his career).
Jose Berrios Under 6.5 Strikeouts
Berrios is a solid pitcher, but he hasn’t been dominant in too many games back-to-back this season. These Royals will be focused on putting the ball in play after chalking up 11 team Ks in 33 ABs last night, and they only had 3 total Ks against Berrios in a June meeting.
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Zach Davies Under 3.5 Strikeouts
Davies doesn’t miss bats and could have an early night against a Pirates lineup sporting a 19.5 team K% — and has whiffed just 13 times in their last 23.1 IP against him. I fully expect the Pirates to have more success against Brewers pitching in this one, and knock Davis out of there before he gets to 4 Ks.
This 9/16 MLB DFS slate is small but extremely appetizing. Any time we have an implied total of 13.5 runs in any MLB game it becomes a clear indicator of where all the ownership is going to be directed. The problem is, we also have some excellent SP1 options tonight. So, with the new Sect LP playing in the background, I bring you today’s pitching picks.
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On theDefense
Salary is a huge issue on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate, we haveseveral top priced starters with little in the way of mid-tier value. This isgoing to make stacking Coors Field tough unless you take some serious chances.
StephenStrasburg vs. St. Louis Cardinals
$10,400 FD / $11,800 DK
There is little question that Strasburg is the top pitchingoption for this 9/16 MLB DFS slate. The Cardinals are striking out 22.5 percentof the time versus RHPs with a wOBA of .313. The last time “The Stras” faced St.Louis he had nine strikeouts over 6 2/3 innings while allowing one earned run.If you are going to spend tonight, here is where to look for the highest Kupside.
JoseBerrios vs. Chicago White Sox
$8,500 FD / $10,200 DK
At times I am baffled with the price differences between thesites on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate. For $8,500 tonight on FD Berrios is a highupside option at a bargain price. On DK I have to say “No way Jose” outside oflarge field GPPs. Regardless, the White Sox are striking out 25.7 percent ofthe time versus RHPs with a low .312 wOBA. This season Berrios is 3-1 versusthe Sox with a 3.00 ERA and 25 strikeouts over 27 innings. Love the matchup,hate he is not cheaper on DK.
DakotaHudson vs. Washington Nationals
$8,600 FD / $8,100 DK
Sniffing out the third pitching option on this 9/16 MLB DFSslate was like threading a needle with fat fingers. Although I do like TannerRoark versus the Royals, that $9,300 price tag on DK scared me away. Robbie Rayseemed like another option with great numbers versus Miami, like everyone else.But that blister issue is one where it seems prudent to hold back the cash fora start while we wait and see. Remember Rich Hill’s blister?
The clear choice seems to be Hudson. On FD I prefer Berrios, but on DK here is your best SP2 option at the price. The Nationals are 10th in MLB in wOBA versus RHPs, and on the lower side of the strikeout world at 21.2 percent. Hudson, however, did strike out seven while only allowing one earned run over six innings in his only start facing the Nats this season. On a tricky 9/16 MLB DFS slate he is the shining star in a SP2 galaxy of dead planets.
Boom orBust
One possible matchup stands out to me on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate for an uber cheap SP2 option. The problem, of course, is he has serious potential to sink you as well. If you are not among the faint of heart this is for you.
PabloLopez vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
$6,700 FD / $5,500 DK
If you are playing on FD on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate, you are better served spending up. The pricing is reasonable, and you can still fit some great bats in without taking this risk. On DK, it is a different world. The Diamondbacks are striking out at a lower 21.3 percent of the time facing RHPs with a low .306 wOBA. Over the last seven days they are batting a pathetic .167 with a wRC+ of 26. If memory serves me that is about the lowest wRC+ I can remember. Attacking a slumping team with a sub-par pitcher sometimes is like hitting the DFS jackpot, or the toilet.
| Name | Team | W | L | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | xFIP |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 17 | 6 | 10.79 | 2.31 | 1.04 | 50.10% | 15.60% | 3.49 | 3.2 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 12 | 8 | 8.6 | 2.29 | 1.19 | 42.10% | 12.10% | 3.63 | 4.38 |
| Dakota Hudson | Cardinals | 15 | 7 | 6.93 | 4.23 | 1.18 | 57.20% | 21.20% | 3.38 | 4.49 |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | 5 | 8 | 7.97 | 2.16 | 1.31 | 46.60% | 15.90% | 4.97 | 4.24 |
On theAttack
On this small 9/16 MLB DFS slate the attack options arequite limited with the volume of positive pitching matchups. The Mets / Rockiesgame is where the DFS world is looking so why not look elsewhere?
KevinGausman vs. Chicago Cubs
There is a bit of confusion here as to whether it is Sonny Gray, or Kevin Gausman starting tonight. The latest report I have is Gausman. Lucky for us the pricing is still adjusted to Gray. This means all the Cubs bats are discounted facing a pitcher with a 6.28 road ERA against one of the best hitting teams in baseball. On this 9/16 MLB DFS slate attack this with everything you got.
ChicagoCubs vs. RHPs
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | SB | OBP | SLG | OPS | wOBA | wRC+ |
| Nico Hoerner | 26 | 11.50% | 11.50% | 0 | 0.423 | 0.565 | 0.988 | 0.402 | 149 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 443 | 12.40% | 14.20% | 4 | 0.413 | 0.541 | 0.954 | 0.4 | 147 |
| Kris Bryant | 477 | 9.90% | 22.40% | 3 | 0.375 | 0.516 | 0.891 | 0.375 | 131 |
| Willson Contreras | 290 | 9.70% | 24.80% | 1 | 0.359 | 0.528 | 0.886 | 0.368 | 127 |
| Jason Heyward | 440 | 12.50% | 17.50% | 8 | 0.37 | 0.488 | 0.859 | 0.359 | 121 |
| David Bote | 251 | 13.50% | 24.70% | 3 | 0.386 | 0.458 | 0.844 | 0.358 | 119 |
| Victor Caratini | 197 | 10.20% | 22.30% | 1 | 0.355 | 0.48 | 0.835 | 0.351 | 115 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 447 | 11.60% | 25.10% | 2 | 0.329 | 0.522 | 0.851 | 0.348 | 113 |
| Nicholas Castellanos | 505 | 5.50% | 24.40% | 2 | 0.321 | 0.49 | 0.811 | 0.338 | 108 |
| Javier Baez | 448 | 4.50% | 27.90% | 3 | 0.308 | 0.512 | 0.82 | 0.337 | 106 |
| Robel Garcia | 51 | 5.90% | 39.20% | 0 | 0.275 | 0.511 | 0.785 | 0.317 | 93 |
| Ben Zobrist | 109 | 11.00% | 13.80% | 0 | 0.358 | 0.347 | 0.705 | 0.311 | 89 |
| Ian Happ | 90 | 11.10% | 22.20% | 2 | 0.3 | 0.43 | 0.73 | 0.308 | 87 |
| Jonathan Lucroy | 215 | 9.30% | 14.40% | 0 | 0.33 | 0.378 | 0.708 | 0.308 | 91 |
| Albert Almora Jr. | 241 | 4.10% | 16.20% | 2 | 0.284 | 0.442 | 0.726 | 0.299 | 81 |
ColeHames vs. Cincinnati Reds
Cole Hamels was lit up in his only start this season facing the Reds allowing five earned runs over four innings. With cheap bats in need on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate there is a bevy of value to be found here on both sites tonight.
Cincinnati Reds vs. LHPs
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | BB/K | SB | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | wOBA | wRC+ |
| Phillip Ervin | 84 | 7.10% | 20.20% | 0.35 | 0 | 0.405 | 0.662 | 1.067 | 0.312 | 0.436 | 168 |
| Aristides Aquino | 43 | 7.00% | 32.60% | 0.21 | 1 | 0.372 | 0.667 | 1.039 | 0.359 | 0.423 | 160 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 143 | 17.50% | 30.80% | 0.57 | 2 | 0.406 | 0.574 | 0.98 | 0.296 | 0.401 | 145 |
| Alex Blandino | 24 | 25.00% | 20.80% | 1.2 | 0 | 0.417 | 0.278 | 0.694 | 0.056 | 0.332 | 101 |
| Curt Casali | 88 | 10.20% | 19.30% | 0.53 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.429 | 0.758 | 0.169 | 0.321 | 93 |
| Freddy Galvis | 183 | 1.60% | 20.80% | 0.08 | 2 | 0.295 | 0.422 | 0.717 | 0.139 | 0.302 | 85 |
| Jose Peraza | 100 | 7.00% | 12.00% | 0.58 | 2 | 0.32 | 0.376 | 0.696 | 0.108 | 0.3 | 80 |
| Jose Iglesias | 119 | 4.20% | 10.10% | 0.42 | 0 | 0.311 | 0.389 | 0.7 | 0.115 | 0.3 | 79 |
| Joey Votto | 163 | 11.00% | 23.90% | 0.46 | 2 | 0.344 | 0.322 | 0.665 | 0.07 | 0.299 | 79 |
| Josh VanMeter | 26 | 11.50% | 30.80% | 0.38 | 1 | 0.269 | 0.227 | 0.497 | 0.091 | 0.234 | 37 |
| Derek Dietrich | 25 | 0.00% | 36.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.217 | 0.457 | 0.043 | 0.211 | 21 |
| Tucker Barnhart | 49 | 12.20% | 26.50% | 0.46 | 1 | 0.245 | 0.163 | 0.408 | 0.023 | 0.188 | 6 |
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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick
With no interest in either sides of the plate tonight and two starting pitchers both capable of easily reaching these totals I am going with the over on both.
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It’s Friday and that means I’m covering pitching. This is my favorite article of the week and I can’t wait to get into it. With that said, let’s discuss our 8/23 DFS Pitching options.
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This is the best cash game pitcher of the day. The simple fact is, you have to love any pitcher against the Tigers, particularly a great one like Berrios. A 3.37 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 8.6 K/9 rate speak for itself and it’s amazing just how reliable this guy is. We’re talking about a pitcher who’s thrown at least 5.2 innings in 23 of his 25 starts this season and the Twins let him go as deep as he wants.
It’s all about the matchup though, with Detroit establishing themselves as the worst offense in baseball. In fact, the Motor City Kitties currently rank bottom-two in runs scored, OBP, OPS, xwOBA and K rate. That’s why Berrios enters this matchup as a –210 favorite and why the Tigers are projected for fewer than four runs.
It’s so crazy to call Lynn a cash game pitcher but something has legitimately changed with this guy. A 3.60 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 10.2 K/9 rate are truly incredible numbers in a place like Texas. That’s arguably the toughest ballpark to pitch in and it says a lot about just how much he’s improved. His last 19 starts are where he’s really turned things around, pitching to a 2.90 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 10.9 K/9 rate. He’s actually thrown at least six innings and struck out at least five batters in all but one of those starts.
All of those brilliant numbers make Lynn a very enticing option in a matchup like this. The White Sox currently rank 28th in runs scored, 24th in OBP, 27th in OPS, 26th in K rate and 25th in xwOBA. They’re even worse against righties, filling out their lineup with guys like Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez, James McCann and Tim Anderson.
This one really pains me because the Rockies are my team but they’re just horrendous outside of Coors Field. In fact, Colorado ranks 23rd in K rate, 26th in runs scored, 29th in OPS and last in OBP outside of Coors. Those are nightmarish numbers against a guy like Flaherty, who’s been the best pitcher in the league the last month. Over his last seven starts, Flaherty is pitching to a 0.89 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and 10.9 K/9 rate. That has led to him scoring at least 32 FanDuel points in all seven of those starts, which is an unbelievably high floor from a player in this price range. That’s why Flaherty and the Cardinals enter this game as a -230 favorite.
Velasquez has been a regular in my articles over recent weeks and his numbers indicate that we’ve been getting it right with this talented pitcher. Since June 5, Velasquez is pitching to a 4.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 9.6 K/9 rate. That ERA may look like nothing special but that WHIP and K rate indicates that he’s one of the best pitchers in this rotation. Gabe Kapler really let him loose in his last start too, allowing VV to throw a season-high 108 pitches. Length has been one of the only issues with Velasquez over recent years and we’re looking at a stud if he throws over 100 pitches.
The career numbers speak loudly as well, with VV posting a 4.20 career xFIP to match his 4.05 SIERA and 25.4 percent K rate. Those great numbers make him particularly intriguing against an offense like the Marlins, with Miami ranked either 29th or dead-last in runs scored, OBP, OPS and xwOBA. That’s no surprise when you see that Velasquez has a 3.52 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 8.9 K/9 rate against them this season. Not to mention, Marlins Park is arguably the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in baseball, with Velasquez entering this matchup as a -180 favorite.
Plesac has quietly had a nice year for the Indians and it’s no wonder that they plan on keeping him in the rotation even with Carlos Carrasco returning. So far this season, Plesac is pitching to a 3.53 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. That’s really all you can ask for from someone this cheap and it looks even better when you consider that he’s faced the Yankees twice, the Red Sox twice, the Rangers twice and the Astros in his 15 starts.
We’re talking about a guy who was a stud in the minors too, posting a 1.89 ERA and 0.86 WHIP for his Double-A and Triple-A career. All of these numbers make him tough to fade against the Royals, with Kansas City ranked 27th in runs scored, 28th in OPS, 23rd in xwOBA and 27th in wOBA. That’s why they have an implied run total south of four and why the Indians enter this matchup as a –180 favorite.
This is a total punt play. Thornton has frustrated me all season in terms of picking hitters against him and it’s time that I get on his end of the success train. A 5.30 ERA and 1.48 WHIP looks pretty ugly, but pitching in the AL East will do that to your numbers. He’s actually allowed five runs or more to the Rays (2), Red Sox (2), Twins and Yankees. Those happen to be the only games that he’s allowed more than four runs and those six ugly outings have sky-rocketed his numbers.
If you look at his other 19 starts, Thornton is pitching to a 3.28 ERA and 1.17 WHIP en route to 29.8 FanDuel points per outing. That shows that he can perform against poor offenses and he gets just that here. In fact, the Mariners currently rank bottom-five in runs scored, OBP, OPS and K rate since the opening month of the season. Getting to face an offense like this in a pitcher’s park like Safeco Field makes Thornton one of the best punt plays on the board. Opposing Thornton is Justus Sheffield and he’s also in play with his elite minor league numbers, great matchup and dirt-cheap price.
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Here are our picks of the day:
Zach Plesac Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Trent Thornton Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Both of these plays speak for themselves when you read the previous write-ups and these props are simply too low.
MKF Record 28-21
Your prime and value 8/6 MLB DFS Pitching Picks.
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Clayton Kershaw vs St. Louis Cardinals
DraftKings – $11,800, FanDuel – $11,300
In L.A., so far this season, Kershaw has shown his Cy Young winning dominance. He has posted a 2.35 ERA with a 8.92 K/9. Now, the strikeouts aren’t exactly where they could be with his talent, but it’s still good. The Cardinals are on a down slope as they dropped six of 10 and their last three. Kershaw is a 8/6 MLB DFS Pitching cash game lock for me and tournament upside is there, too.
Zach Wheeler vs Miami Marlins
DraftKings – $10,600, FanDuel – $10,700
If you’ve read my articles before, you know I LOVE targeting Miami when they’re at home. The Mets are on complete fire and this pitching staff is showing its potential right now. Since the break Wheeler has posted a 2.19 ERA and a 10.22 K/9. There aren’t any bats in this Miami lineup to be worried about. They recently called up their young soon to be star in Isan Diaz, but off a long back to back day these offenses will be taxed. Give me Wheeler with the immense 10 K upside in 8/6 MLB DFS Pitching.
Chase Anderson @ Pittsburgh Pirates
DraftKings – $6,000, FanDuel – $6,900
The Pirates turned from an exciting team to a team that just cannot put anything together. They have dropped eight of 10 and their last three. On the road this season Anderson has posted a 3.65 ERA and a 7.05 K/9. With his struggles coming against right handed bats, immense reverse splits, he shapes up vs. the Pirates well as most of their bats are lefties. This is my 8/6 MLB DFS Pitching night punt in all formats.
Anthony DeSclafani vs Los Angeles Angels
DraftKings – $8,300, FanDuel – $7,900
DeSclafani, who is a much better pitcher at home, gets the Angels in town in this one. He holds a 3.40 ERA and a 10.02 K/9 at home this season. Most of his trouble comes from lefty bats and luckily their dangerous bats outside of Ohtani are right handed. This is mid tier 8/6 MLB DFS Pitching option. I don’t prefer a mid tier route today, but it’s here if you need it.
Jose Berrios vs Atlanta Braves
DraftKings – $11,000, FanDuel – $10,800
Anything Berrios is at home, he is always in a couple of my lineups. I don’t think he fits the cash build today, but he definitely fits a ton of GPP routes. At home he holds a 2.10 ERA and a 8.55 K/9. He has a little trouble with left handed bats so Freddie Freeman does scare me, but not enough to make me fade Berrios in 8/6 MLB DFS Pitching. We know the upside with the young star, don’t ignore it. Berrios could be on a ton of GPP winning lineups.
Scott Engel and our resident pro wrestler and DFS expert discuss the Main MLB DFS Slates and provide DFS picks for the Hall of Fame Game. There are a few early games and a six-game night set in MLB to cover on the 8/1 DFS Podcast. The Broncos and Falcons will have us sifting through backups to determine who gets the most playing time.
Michael Pineda is performing well and gets the reward of a trip to Miami. Zach Wheeler is still a Met and has a good matchup in Chicago. Max Fried could be a nice salary saver tonight so you can roster Gerrit Cole and/or save some salary for hitting.
Scott and Matt provide a positional review and recommendations for DFS Play in the Hall of Fame Game. Scott may build around Kevin Hogan while Matt points out that a TE play could be important.
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With an eight game main slate on FanDuel we have high, mid, and low end options for 7/31 MLB DFS Pitching. One stands out above the rest but we have cheaper options and potential pivots. These are my favorites.
7/31 MLB DFS Pitching Top overall arm – Jacob deGrom ($12,000 FD). deGrom has the highest floor on the board tonight since he gets a nice matchup with the White Sox. Chicago strikes out 23.3% of the time against right handed pitching and has a basement ISO of 0.153. deGrom’s strikeout rate of 31.2% is the highest on the slate. He is the number one pitching option on the schedule. However, his $12K price tag takes him out of “must play” status.
7/31 MLB DFS Pitching Tournament Pivot 1 – Mike Minor ($9,500 FD). Minor gets Seattle tonight and a lineup that strikes out 30.8% of the time against lefties! And he’s $2.500 less than deGrom on FanDuel. There is some risk in a great hitter’s park, with great hitting weather, and a lineup that does have some power. However, I’m more than okay giving up a few home runs for the high strikeout ceiling. He’s my number one points per dollar play of the night.
7/31 MLB DFS Pitching Tournament Pivot 2 – Jose Berrios ($10,400 FD). Berrios gets the Miami Marlins tonight in a nice pitcher’s park. Miami’s lineup has the lowest ISO on the board at 0.139 and has a 22.9% strikeout rate. His matchup gets even better since he will likely see seven righties and no DH. He has one of the highest floors on the slate with plenty of strikeout upside.
7/31 MLB DFS Pitching Salary Saver – Jordan Lyles ($6,400 FD). Lyles has an above average strikeout rate at 24.9% and he gets a fresh start with Milwaukee tonight. Oakland at home is not the ideal matchup due to their decent power numbers, but the park does favor pitchers. He should see six righties tonight which he strikes out at a 26.1% clip. Again, I’m okay with giving up a few home runs if the strikeout upside is there. Which it is for Lyles tonight.
This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s eight game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.
**Low Risk
Zach Plesac is on the mound in Cleveland this evening and he has had a pretty good rookie campaign thus far. He sports a 3.10 ERA, 5.14 FIP, and 5.21 SIERA. Through expected regression his 3.10 ERA will come closer to his FIP and SIERA. Plesac also has tremendous splits, only allowing righties to slash to a .304 wOBA, .425 SLG, and .293 OBP. Despite the great averages put forth by Plesac he still only has a K rate of 18.1%, one of the lowest on today’s slate. Houston is the second best team in the league in regards to striking out, averaging only 7.23 per game. The Astros are red hot vs. right hand pitching right now, slashing to a .374 wOBA, .264 ISO, and 140 WRC+.
Preferred Stack: George Springer ($4500 FD|$5600 DK), Alex Bregman ($3800 FD|$5200 DK), Yordan Alvarez($4000 FD|$5500 DK), Jose Altuve ($4200 FD|$5100 DK), and Michael Brantley ($4100 FD|$5100 DK).
**Moderate Risk
Thankfully the Coors game falls on the early slate so we don’t have to worry about that. We do get Coors south in Texas, which has quickly become one of the more prolific hitting parks in MLB this season. There’s no doubt this Rangers lineup is just not the same without Joey Gallo in it. The Rangers are slashing to a lowly .288 wOBA, .170 ISO, and 70 WRC+ for the month of July. Despite these poor hitting averages they get to face Wade LeBlanc at home. LeBlanc owns a 4.79 ERA, 5.17 FIP, and 4.69 SIERA. He is allowing 1.85 HR/9 and holds a terrible K rate of 17.6%. LeBlanc gave up three earned runs and struck out five over five innings pitched the last time he faced the Rangers at home.
Preferred Stack: Danny Santana ($3600 FD|$5300 DK), Elvis Andrus ($3000 FD|$4300 DK), Shin-soo Choo ($3200 FD|$4800 DK), and Hunter Pence ($3500 FD|$4700 DK). Roughned Odor ($2800 FD|$4400 DK).
vs. LHP Ryan Yarbrough (TAM): 7.00 Runs
**Low Risk
Preferred Plays: J.D. Martinez ($4100 FD|$4900 DK), Xander Bogaerts ($4200 FD|$5100 DK), Rafael Devers ($4300 FD|$5300 DK), and Christian Vazquez ($2600 FD|$3900 DK).
vs.RHP Jeff Samardzija (SFG): 5.35 Runs
**Moderate Risk
Preferred Plays: Bryce Harper ($4200 FD|$4300 DK), Rhys Hoskins ($4000 FD|$4200 DK), Cesar Hernandez ($2700 FD|$3400 DK) and Adam Haseley ($2300 FD|$3400 DK).
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Scott Engel and our resident pro wrestler and DFS expert discuss the Main MLB DFS Slate on the 7/25 MLB DFS Podcast. There are early games, but there is not much to choose from, so Matt says do not be intimidated into playing. But pitching is not easy to come by on the night schedule.
Jose Berrios and Lucas Gioloto face off in the pitching matchup of the night, and they are really the only two guys on the slate who seem to be true quality choices. But Matt has a good salary saver for you. Plus, Angels and Athletics bats are in play tonight.
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