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Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Run Blast. Every Friday night MKF runs a special contest where if you play in a $5+ Home Run Blast contest and all 3 of your batters hit a home run you get a share of the jackpot. Tonight’s jackpot is $5,000!
With that said, lets dig in and see where we can find some long balls!
Gavin Sheets vs. JC Mejia
Gavin Sheets isn’t someone that comes to mind when talking about White Sox power. He actually has one of the highest ISO’s of anyone on the team this year vs. righties. Tonight he gets a great match up vs. JC Mejia.
Mejia has really struggled in the month of June. In his last 4 starts he’s given up 7 homers. Where we want to attack Mejia is with lefties. His ISO this year vs. lefties is a whopping .302 vs. just .094 against righties.
Mejia’s main pitch to lefties is his sinker which he throws about 45% of the time. Sheets, albeit a very small sample size, has an .857 ISO against this pitch with an average distance of 373 feet. If Mejia’s sinker isn’t on tonight, bombs away for Sheets. Confidence Level – High.
Jorge Soler vs. Ross Stripling
When looking for homers, Stripling is one of the best pitchers to target. Over his last 14 innings of work he’s given up 6 dongs. His outing on Sunday was the first time in nearly 2 months where he hadn’t given up homer.
The next 2 month streak of games with a homer starts tonight and the guy that I like the best to start it is Jorge Soler. To start, Soler has been hot over the past week with 4 homers, a .482 wOBA, and a wRC + of 215.
In looking at pitch mix he’s going to get a steady stream of low 90’s fastballs tonight with some sliders mixed in. Soler has a career ISO of .471 with an average distance of 341 against this pitch. Confidence Level – High
Joey Votto vs. Cookie Carrasco
At some point the law of averages will catch up with Votto. I just don’t see it happening tonight. Carrasco takes the mound for the first time in almost 2 years tonight after opting out last season and tearing his hamstring this season.
If we go all the way back to the 2019 season we can see that lefties were his weakness. He gave up way more fly balls and hard contact to that side of the plate. Votto is on an absolute heater and it won’t slow down tonight. Confidence Level – Highish.
Mejia and Stripling are both giving up homers at an insane pace right now. Guys like Moncada and Goodwin are also prime targets for homers on the Sox. With Royals, I also like Salvador Perez and Carlos Santana.
Good luck and hope to share the jackpot with you!
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Today marks the end of the 2019 regular season, so the 9/29 DFS Hitting Picks is dedicated to those teams who will spend Monday cleaning out lockers. The focus definitely needs to be on making the long green on the last time with all 30 teams involved.
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Barnhart won’t end the season quietly, evidenced by his homer on Saturday, his second of the week. He’s got a 1.311 OPS this week and put up decent numbers against the Pirates this season, hitting .256 in 43 at-bats. He draws walks at a 12.1% rate and continues to be focused on pulling the ball frequently (43.6%). Barnhart’s 14.7% HR/FB rate is the best of his career, so the bet here is that Barnhart can pad that total off of Pirates hurler Trevor Williams.
Mets fans can spend the winter wondering what could have been had Davis received the bulk of at-bats over Todd Frazier the first two months of the season. His .354 BABIP and .214 Isolated Power has been amplified during the second half with a .909 OPS. He’s banging the ball with a 41% hard contact rate and a 22.6% HR/FB rate despite hitting fly balls just 29.8% of the time. Davis has established himself as a line drive hitter (23.1%) with a reasonable 21.4% strikeout rate who also has a .900 OPS against Braves pitching this season.
One of the few Cubs bats that showed life this month, Happ comes into today’s finale with a 1.460 OPS over the past two weeks. His power has been on display with six homers and 10 extra base hits during the month, with much of it coming from a drastic emphasis on hitting the ball in the air (41.6%). He’s owned the Cards this season, going .417/.462/1.000 with four homers and nine RBI.
Nunez’s all-or-nothing mindset has played pretty well at Fenway Park, where Nunez has homered four times this season. He’s put together a solid .289/.317/.632 slash line in 38 at-bats in Boston, doing his part to assure the Red Sox will sit at home. Though Nunez has 31 homers, his 36.8% hard contact rate is just above league-average, but he’s also produced a 46.3% fly ball rate and a 21.3% line drive rate. Regardless, Nunez makes for a good 9/29 DFS Hitting selection.
He’ll be one of the few Red Sox who won’t wonder to about changing addresses over the winter. Today is a final opportunity for Bogaerts to torch Orioles pitching, something he’s done to the tune of .324/.392/.544 this season with three homers, 15 RBI and 12 runs scored. Bogearts’ steady rise of hard contact is at 38.8%, mixing well with his 40% fly ball rate. A boost of his walk rate (10.8%) and a 21-point in BABIP (.338) have also contributed to his impressive total.
Long shot, yes, but Soler does have a chance to reach 50 homers. Sitting on 47 entering today’s finale, Soler has nine homers, 19 RBI, 20 runs scored and 14 extra base hits in September. That explains why he’s bringing an 1.130 OPS this month and a 1.073 OPS post All-Star Break. Soler’s .265 batting average and .354 OBP are exactly the same as last season’s total, but his slugging percentage climbed 100 points along with a 99-point hike in Isolated Power. Those numbers are possible when getting a 46.7% hard contact rate.
Harper’s .929 OPS this month obviously wasn’t enough for the Phillies, but makes him a good opportunity to make the 9/29 DFS Hitting Picks proud. He comes into today with a .972 OPS against the Marlins with four homers, 17 RBI and 12 runs scored this season. Harper has been helped by a .311 BABIP along with a career-best 47.8% hard contact rate and a solid 23.6% HR/FB rate.
Happy Sunday to Calhoun, who gets to end the season facing a right-hander. Calhoun has an .886 OPS versus righties and have hit 14 of his 21 homers this season against them. September was rough, but Calhoun has recovered with an 1.137 OPS with three homers over the past week. You get what you get with Calhoun, who pulls the ball at a 52.5% clip with a nifty hard contact rate of 41.2%.
Kings of the 9/29 Hitting Stack of the Day: Texas Rangers: Go with Calhoun and look at Nick Solak ($3100 FD), Danny Santana ($3400) and Ronald Guzman ($2400), who has a homer against Yankees opener Chad Green.
The Pretty 9/29 Hitting Stack Runner-Up: Chicago White Sox: American League batting champ Tim Anderson ($4600 DK), Eloy Jimenez ($4500) and Yoan Moncada ($4800) makes for a good quartet against 3-16 Tigers starter Spencer Turnbull.
And the Final 9/29 Hitting Stack to Consider: Boston Red Sox: It’s the end of this lineup as we knew it. Load up on Bogaerts, Rafael Devers ($3900) and J.D. Martinez ($4400 FD) along with an affordable option like Mitch Moreland ($2800).
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A surprisingly light Wednesday awaits, as the 9/4 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks will focus on the eight games that comprise the main slate (five games) and the late schedule (three).
The emphasis will be on those playing the full evening slate, one that lacks elite pitching outside of Shane Bieber of the Indians and Hyun-Jin Ryu of the Dodgers.
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Garver (jaw) missed Tuesday’s game, but is a likely go tonight. There’s good reason why he’s expense at DraftKings, as Garver has produced a 1.248 OPS over the past two weeks with three homers, eight runs scored and five RBI. Like most of (with apologies to Ole and Arn Anderson) the Minnesota Wrecking Crew, Garver has a monster Isolated Power total (.345), but he’s at his most dangerous on the road, where Garver has a 1.023 OPS with 15 homers and 35 RBI. You have to also love the combination of his 47.2% fly ball rate and 46.1% hard contact rate, which is why Garver’s a heck of a play.
Reds starter Trevor Bauer, he of the 8.40 ERA since arriving in Cincinnati, must face Hoskins, whose bat has come alive at just the right time for the Phillies. Hoskins hit just .161 for the month of August, but he’s hammered pitchers to a 1.015 OPS over the past two weeks and opened September with a pair of homers on Labor Day. With a 17.4% walk rate, Hoskins doesn’t need to go deep to touch base. Like the aforementioned Garver, Hoskins has a (very) strong fly ball rate at 51.5% to go along with a 45% hard contact rate, two very good traits to have at Great American Ball Park.
Merrifield has a homer in the three previous times he’s faced Tigers hurler Edwin Jackson. While becoming less of a baserunner, Merrifield’s Isolated Power (.172) took a 34-point jump from 2018 along with a sharp increase in HR/FB% (10.3%). Merrifield had three hits on Tuesday night, and stands to imagine he should be a good 9/4 DFS Hitting Picks member considering he’s going against Tigers pitching.
The leg tightness that has kept Newman’s blistering bat on the bench the past two games should be a thing of the past. Newman has five multi-hit games in his last seven starts and was hitting .588/.611/1.176 (1.787 OPS) with three homers over the past week. Where the power he didn’t display in the minors came from is beyond me, but Newman’s 60.9% medium contact rate from last season graduated to 51.1% due in part to an increased 27.8% hard contact rate. Aristides Aquino he’s not, but you’ll take Newman picking up where he left off.
No matter how good a pitcher is, there’s always a batter who has his number. In what feels like a 2019 edition of Major League II, Moncada is Jack Parkman to Biber’s Ricky Vaughn, having recorded five hits in nine career at-bats against the Indians ace with a pair of solo homers and a 1.933 OPS. Perhaps this is what Moncada needs. After all, he’s hitting .182 over the past two weeks, but five of those eight hits are for extra bases (three doubles, two homers). For those of the risky nature, this matchup is sneaky good.
Hmmm…a Royals stack (later)? Soler OWNS Detroit to the point where he could run for mayor in the D. Soler has gone .444/.500/1.000 (1.500 OPS) with nine homers among the 17 extra base hits he’s racked up against the Tigers. Oh, yeah: he’s scored 28 runs and driven 25. It’s at this point where I don’t have to give you hard contact rate percentage or fly ball frequency. Of the 9/4 DFS Hitting Picks, Soler is the one bat you must have in your lineup.
That picturesque stroke is starting to gain traction, evidenced by a .414 batting average and 1.088 OPS over the past week. Jimenez has a pair of homers in the same span, and why the lack of plate discipline continues to disappoint, the 36.9% hard contact rate continues to rise and offer reason for a strong September. Oddly enough, he’s done well against Cleveland this season, hitting .375/.394/.656 with a pair of dingers among his 12 hits. He’s a cheap play that’s worth adding to the lineup. Few will be bold to take him against Shane Bieber, but I would.
For all of his historic power display, the most impressive thing about Aquino has been his patience at the plate. Over the past two weeks, Aquino has a .361 OBP. His 7.1% walk rate is a sign that he’s realizing he doesn’t have to chase everything while waiting for the right pitch to wallop into the nether reaches of Great American Ball Park. Aquino is still doing damage despite the fact his hard contact rate has dipped to 36.5%. That’s cool, since his HR/BB% remains a devastating 37.5%. He’s becoming an advanced enough hitter to where it’s OK to slot him in the lineup, even against Aaron Nola.
9/4 Hitting Stack of the Day: Kansas City Royals: Both Merrifield and Soler have gone deep against Jackson. Hunter Dozier ($4,600 DK) has a homer and four RBI in his last three games. Aldalberto Mondesi ($3,700 FD) has four hits and three runs in his first two games off an extended DL stop. Crazy as it sounds, loading up on Royals could lead to the long green.
9/4 Hitting Stack Runner-Up: Philadelphia Phillies: Start with Hoskins and consider adding Bryce Harper ($5,300 DK), who has seven runs scored and seven RBI to go along with a pair of homers over the past week. J.T. Realmuto ($3,600) is a solid play, and Corey Dickerson ($4,700) has the edge in a lefty-righty matchup against the slumping Trevor Bauer.
8/30 Hitting Stack to Consider: New York Yankees: The Yankees are playing in an early slate, but if you’re playing a full slate, keep in mind that it’s Rangers ace Lance Lynn on the mound. Lynn is more effective outside of Texas with a 111-27 K:BB rate in 88 innings on the road. The Yankees options are familiar, but this has Buyer Beware written all over it.
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It’s Wednesday, and along with it we have a shortened slate of MLB split into two. As usual we will focus on the main slate for tonight’s action which features eight exciting games. So I bring you today’s 9/4 MLB DFS Pitching picks.
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On the Defense
Shane Bieber vs. Chicago White Sox
$11,000 FD / $11,500
I am pretty sure everybody is going to have “Bieber Fever” on this 9/4 MLB DFS slate. Despite his checkered past versus the White Sox this season allowing eight earned runs over 12 2/3 innings, this should be the cash game play of the night. The White Sox are still striking out 25.8 percent of the time versus RHPs with a sub-par .311 wOBA. With Bieber having a current 11.9 K/9 and striking out batters left and right in every start, even if he was to give up some runs today the strikeout upside alone still could land him the top SP slot on the slate.
Zac Gallen vs. San Diego Padres
$8,500 FD / $9,600
The Padres are 12th in MLB over the last seven days in offense. That is a fact. They also strike out 25.8 percent of the time versus RHPs, another fact. Gallen has 22 strikeouts over his last 16 innings while only allowing six earned runs, all versus much tougher opponents. His price is a bit high for a SP2 on DK to pair with Bieber, but on this 9/4 MLB DFS slate he sure makes a fine pivot off of him in GPPs.
Hyun-Jin Ryu vs. Colorado Rockies
$8,400 FD / $9,200
Despite Hyun-Jin Ryu pitching more like Hyun-Jin Pyu as of late, for the deflated price on FD I will be using him in a few large field GPPs. The Rockies still strike out 22.4 percent of the time versus LHPs, and outside of Coors Field have a .292 wOBA to complement a pathetic wRC+ of 76. I have confidence Ryu rights the ship on this 9/4 MLB DFS slate at home where is ERA is 1.54.
Jacob Junis vs. Detroit Tigers
$7,900 FD / $7,500 DK
The Detroit Tigers are a team you can attack most days. They strike out 27.3 percent of the time versus RHPs with a low .292 wOBA. In case you missed it Junis has 19 strikeouts versus Detroit this season over 19 innings while allowing five earned runs. With the 9/4 MLB DFS slate offering limited choices Junis shines as the clear cut SP2 option and great value play on FD.
On the Attack
Anthony Senzatela vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
This is certainly the 9/4 MLB DFS chalk stack of the night. Senzatela has allowed a whopping 33 earned runs over his last 13 1/3 innings. Now he goes into Dodger Stadium to face one of the most powerful offenses in MLB. He is going to take an absolute shellacking tonight.
Notable Bats
A.J .Pollock is 4-for-9 with one home run off Senzatela, but keep in mind he hits lefties better than righties.
Gavin Lux now has a wOBA of .695 versus RHPs with 343 wRC+. It may be a small sample size by why not ride the hot bat before the scouts catch up with him.
Cody Bellinger, if you use your budget wisely, is the top play, and price. With a .434 wOBA versus RHPs over this long season he should feast tonight.
Patrick Sandoval vs. Oakland Athletics
Prior to his great last outing versus the Rangers, Sandoval allowed seven earned runs over 7 1/3 innings. I see clear regression on this 9/4 MLB DFS slate facing an A’s team with a .331 wOBA versus LHPs.
Notable Bats
Matt Chapman has .376 wOBA versus LHPs with a wRC+ of 139 this season.
Khris Davis has a decreased price as of late and is posting a .355 wOBA versus LHPs.
Mark Canha is batting cleanup with little surprise carrying a .342 wOBA versus LHPs. He also has five straight games without a home run, he is due.
Edwin Jackson vs. Kansas City Royals
My sneaky stack on this 9/4 MLB DFS slate is the Royals. The last time he faced Kansas City he only allowed one earned run over 6 1/3 innings while striking out four, this may scare some people off. After watching him get rocked for 12 earned runs in his last two starts versus the Twins in 7 1/3 innings, I am on the attack here.
Jorge Soler is the Nelson Cruz of the Royals. He has a .370 wOBA versus RHPs this season and is batting .348 with three home runs over the last seven.
Hunter Dozier, who in my opinion has the best name for a third baseman in baseball, mashes RHPs to the tune of a .363 wOBA with a wRC+ of 166. He also has two home runs and seven RBI over the last seven days.
Alex Gordon may have slowed down but he is only striking out 14.8 percent of the time versus RHPs and has a solid shot at some real hard contact today.
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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick
I am going with the over with Junis facing a Tigers team that is leading MLB in strikeouts versus RHPs.
Miguel Cabrera has had some success versus Junis, going 4-for-14 lifetime. The Over is where I am looking.
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There’s only eight games on the schedule, and since each will be played under the lights, it will give you time to consider how to load your lineup with 8/8 MLB DFS bargain plays and stacks (besides the obvious one in Yankee Stadium). There’s at least two games with the stench of poor lineups along with a game or two that will produce a sleeper.Top 8/8 MLB DFS Stack: New York Yankees: Blue Jays starter Thomas Pannone has a 7.48 ERA on the road and a 48.1% fly ball rate. Wrong place, wrong time, Thomas. You can start your Pinstripe stack with blistering hot Mike Tauchman ($3,300 at FanDuel), who opened the week with three homers and five RBI. Brett Gardner ($3,000) is hitting .417 with a pair of homers and five ribbies over the past week, and there should be enough available to add Gio Urshela ($3.500), who returned to the lineup on Wednesday to go 3-for-5 with a pair of bombs and four RBI. If Austin Romine gets the start, get greedy and add his $2,700 to the line, as he’s homered in each of his last two starts.Chicago Cubs 8/8 MLB DFS Stack: Entering Wednesday’s play, the Cubs were batting a composite .295/.356/.515 over the past seven days with 10 homers and 26 RBI. Those numbers should remain on point as they play at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark and face Alex Wood, who has allowed three homers in his first two starts. Obviously, Javier Baez ($5,100 at DraftKings) will cost, but you’ll pay considering he’s hit .400 with three homers and nine ribbies over the last week. Kris Bryant ($4,300) also comes with a stiff sticker price, but he’s destroyed Reds pitching (.356, three homers, 1.130 OPS) this season. Kyle Schwarber ($4,500) is another high-priced bat, but he’s homered five times against Cincinnati this season.Detroit Tigers 8/8 MLB DFS Stack: Don’t laugh, but there’s some value in this lineup. Brandon Dixon ($3,100 at FanDuel) is hitting .357 over the past week with a homer and a stolen base to boot. Miguel Cabrera ($3,100) has a .346 average over the same span while also swatting a homer. Cabrera is hidden gold when the Tigers are at home. The ever-versatile Niko Goodrum is batting .333 with six RBI and comes in with a reasonable $3,200 salary.Now that we’ve stacked, I suppose you’ll want to get some more hitting into your system. Give ‘em what they want, right?8/8 DFS Hitting CatcherFrancisco Mejia, SD vs. COLDK ($3,200) FD ($2,200)The highly-touted bat is coming alive. Mejia has consecutive three-hit games and hit his fifth homer of the season on Wednesday. He’s slowly getting his hard contact rate on the upswing (32.7%) while quietly going .302/.351/.453 since the All-Star Break. Rockies pitcher Jon Gray has a 4.17 ERA outside of Coors Field and has allowed four of his 18 homers to Padres hitting.8/8 MLB DFS Hitting 1BMiguel Cabrera, DET vs. KCDK ($3,500), FD (3,100)As mentioned earlier, Cabrera is a solid hitter at Comerica Park, where he slashes at .351/.410/.446. His strong start to the month has seen him produce a 1.049 OPS in his first 22 at-bats. With Danny Duffy on the DL, the Royals will pitch Jorge Lopez, who makes his first start since May 28. Lopez will serve as the opener for K.C., but it doesn’t matter considering he’s allowed 10 homers in 48.2 innings on the road.8/8 MLB DFS Hitting 2BJon Berti, MIA vs. ATLFD ($4,200), DK ($3,000)The journeyman is making the most of his extended trip to The Show with four multi-hit games in his last five starts. Berti has a 1.087 OPS and will continue to keep highly-touted Isan Diaz on the bench. He’s become a line drive machine, hitting them at a 29.5% rate. The Braves will start the Bad version of Dallas Keuchel, as in the one who has a 4.71 road ERA and has allowed opposing batters to hit .301 against him outside of Atlanta. 8/8 MLB DFS Hitting 3BVladimir Guerrero, Jr. TOR vs. NYYFD ($4,500), DK ($3,700)He’s finally brought his OPS above .800 (.803) as Guerrero opened August with 11 hits in 26 at-bats that includes five extra base hits. What makes him interesting here is whether he become more consistent at home, where he’s hitting .254 with four of his 13 homers coming at Rogers Centre. Guerrero is batting .243 with a homer against New York pitching. Still, the one number that’s intriguing is the .390 OBP he’s established since the ASB, a clear sign The Chosen One is starting to get it. 8/8 MLB DFS Hitting SSBo Bichette, TOR vs. NYYFD ($4,400), DK ($3,800)Bichette has doubled in eight straight games; 11 of his first 18 hits have gone for extra bases, and it doesn’t hurt that Bichette has a stolen base to his credit. Yankees starter Domingo German is 14-2 overall but has been addicted to giving up dingers, as he’s allowed at least two homers in three of his last four starts. German is also suspect on the road, where his 5.60 ERA is more than double the 2.19 ERA he’s posted in New York. 8/8 MLB DFS Hitting OutfieldersRonald Acuna, Jr. ATL at MIADK ($5,300), FD (4,300)He’s now one homer and four steals away from going 30-30, damn nifty for a 21-year old who’ll get some serious MVP consideration that Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich won’t hoard. Acuna is locked in, hitting .357/.400/.750 in 28 at-bats this month. As good as his numbers were in the first half, Acuna has been filthy since the break with a .302/.373/.538 slash and a .911 OPS. He loves Marlins pitching, having hit four runs against them this season with a .916 OPS. Jorge Soler, KC at DETDK ($4,200), FD ($3,200)Speaking of impressive second halves, Soler’s .309/.436/.667 (1.103 OPS) would garner more attention if he were playing almost anywhere outside of Kansas City. Soler has raised his walk rate to 9.7% while adding 75 points to his Isolated Power total (.277). He’s never going to win a batting crown, but his reduction in pulling the ball from 53.2% last season to 45.8% this year has helped make him a more complete hitter.Aristides Aquino, CIN vs. CHCDK ($3,800), FD ($2,900)Aquino is swinging the bat in almost the same manner another #44 in a Reds uniform once did. He’s still light years from Eric Davis, but Aquino has a pair of homers and five RBI in his first 16 at-bats and is hitting the ball hard to the tune of a 50% hard contact rate. Aquino is a cheap option with a great upside playing in Great American Ball Park.
Thursday’s MLB action may not include a Coors Game, but there are plenty of offenses to stack in DFS. We have four stacks to target as you assemble your Daily Fantasy Sports entries.
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I am pretty sure the Oakland Athletics pushed Tanner Anderson’s start back a day just so he could help put on a fireworks show. Anderson has a 7.13 ERA this season, while allowing a robust 48.3% hard contact rate. The high amount of hard contact has led to home runs, as he is allowing 2.04 HR/9. With the Twins leading all of baseball in home runs hit, this seems like an appropriate spot to stack some Twinkies in DFS.
Anderson has been awful against lefties. He has allowed a .473 wOBA and 4.91 HR/9. So of course, we want to load up on the left-handed Twins. So our Minnesota stacks will need to start with Max Kepler (FanDuel: $3,700 DraftKings: $4,600). Kepler has an ISO north of .330 versus right-handed pitching. Other Twins bats worth considering are: Jason Castro (FanDuel: $2,600 DraftKings: $3,800) and Jorge Polanco (FanDuel: $3,700 DraftKings: $4,500). These two bats have ISOs above .240 versus righties in 2019.
The Tigers’ offense is not normally in a position to stack. In fact, it has been good to our bank accounts to use starting pitchers against them. But this is just how bad the White Sox’s Lopez is. Lopez has a .5.12 SIERA and a low 10% swinging strike rate. He is not missing many bats and this is a perfect spot for us to pick on while we build DFS lineups.
Look to use the Tigers’ offense as a cheap stack to help load up on bats from Minnesota or one of these other teams. But target the likes of Brandon Dixon (FanDuel: $2,800 DraftKings: $4,300) and Gordon Beckham (FanDuel: $2,300 DraftKings: $3,300). All of these Tigers’ bats have ISOs over .200 against right-handed pitching this season.
The Phillies’ Zach Eflin is not a terrible pitcher but he is not elite with his SIERA being 1.3 higher than his ERA. That means some regression is coming and it likely is coming today. Not only does Eflin struggle on the road with a 4.64 xFIP, but the Braves’ lineup is stacked with guys that crush righties. The Atlanta Braves have seven guys with regular at bats that are posting .200-plus ISOs against right-handed pitchers.
Of course, start your Atlanta DFS stack with Freddie Freeman (FanDuel: $4,400 DraftKings: $5,000). But you can also mix and match the likes of: Austin Riley (FanDuel: $3,400 DraftKings: $4,500), Josh Donaldson (FanDuel: $3,000 DraftKings: $4,000), Tyler Flowers (FanDuel: $2,500 DraftKings: $3,600), Dansby Swanson (FanDuel: $3,700 DraftKings: $4,500), Brian McCann (FanDuel: $2,600 DraftKings: $3,400) and Ronald Acuna Jr (FanDuel: $4,300 DraftKings: $5,400). All four of these Braves batters have accumulated at least a .200 ISO versus right-handed pitching.
The Royalsand Indians game should have plenty of fireworks from both offenses and may bea great spot to game stack for DFS purposes. But if you have to chose just oneside, the Royals’ offense is the way to lean. The Indians’ Zach Plesac has a5.01 SIERA and a 5.13 xFIP in 2019. He also is allowing flyballs at a rate of42.4% which has led to 1.91 HR/9.
Use HunterDozier (FanDuel: $3,600 DraftKings: $4,700), Jorge Soler (FanDuel: $3,100DraftKings: $4,000) and Adalberto Mondesi (FanDuel: $3,600 DraftKings: $4,800).These three batters have ISOs greater than .200 against right-handed pitching.
But also, Dozier (.250 ISO) and Soler (.409 ISO) have crushed fastballs this season, which Plesac has thrown 55% of the time.
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We have a rather short DFS slate here with only six games on the schedule. That makes our jobs much easier, as we only have 12 teams to zone in on. This is the perfect sort of slate for me and we’re going to look to continue our hot MKF picks!
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Buster Posey. SF at SD
DK ($2,800) FD ($2,300)
To say the catching options on this slate are ugly would be an understatement, as Posey makes for a nice punt play. While his power has fallen off the face of the earth, this guy is still a Hall of Fame player. That’s evident by his .302 career average and .832 OPS. Those are incredible numbers from any catcher and his .669 OPS this season will inevitably see some positive regression. The reason we like him here is because he gets the platoon advantage against a lefty, with Posey generating a .322 AVG, .909 OPS and .389 wOBA against southpaws for his career.
Eric Thames, MIL at CIN
DK ($4,900) FD ($2,800)
It’s really hard to understand why Thames remains so cheap on these DFS sites. This lefty masher has obliterated righties throughout his career and he’s being priced like a slap-hitter on FanDuel. Since joining the Brewers, Thames is providing a .535 SLG and .884 OPS against right-handers. That’s amazing production from a player priced this cheap and it doesn’t even take into consideration that he enters this game in the midst of a four-game hitting streak, collecting a .500 AVG in that span while accumulating three doubles, one triple, two homers and five RBI. Tyler Mahle is not a guy we need to feat either, with the righty pitching to a 4.80 FIP for his career.
Scooter Gennett, CIN vs. MIL
DK ($3,900) FD ($3,000)
Gennett has only one hit in his first two games off the IL but this is a guy who’s way too good to be this low. Since joining the Reds in 2017. Gennett has a .303 AVG to match his .508 SLG and .859 OPS. Those are stellar numbers from a little guy and he’s typically better against righties. In fact, Gennett has a .903 OPS against right-handers since joining Cincinnati. That’s way too much potential from a player below $4,000 on both DFS sites.
Manny Machado, SD vs. SF
DK ($5,100) FD ($4,200)
Machado’s season-long numbers are nothing special but he’s probably the hottest hitter in the league right now. What got him going was a series in Coors Field, with Machado generating a .429 AVG, a .962 SLG and a 1.415 OPS in 14 games since then. That’s obviously absurd production and it pretty much puts him in play no matter what. We love him against a guy like Jeff Samardzija too, who’s pitching to a 5.12 ERA and 1.41 WHIP dating back to last season.
Willy Adames, TB vs. BAL
DK ($3,800) FD ($3,400)
Adames was incredibly cheap on both DFS sites just last week and the recent price increase indicates just how good he’s been recently. Not only does he have a hit in 10 of his last 12 games, Adames is also posting a 1.153 OPS over his last eight games in total. What’s cool about Adames is that he’s actually a reverse splits guy, which means he’s much better against right-handed pitching. That’s made crystal clear by the fact that he’s posting an .807 career OPS against righties. Jimmy Yacobonis is definitely a guy we want to exploit too, with the Orioles righty pitching to a 5.32 ERA and 1.49 WHIP across 86 innings in his career.
Kyle Schwarber, CHC at PIT
DK ($3,900) FD ($3,600)
Schwarber just continues to be undervalued on DK and it really doesn’t make any sense. Since being moved to the leadoff spot, Schwarber has been a different player. It us evident by the fact that he’s got 14 homers over his last 44 games while accruing 31 runs scored and 31 RBI in that span. That’s all you can ask for from someone in this price range and he should have success against a guy who’s due for some serious regression. Trevor Williams has a 4.51 career xFIP, which tells us that he’s been extremely lucky up to this point. That luck could end here, with Schwarber posting a .495 SLG and .826 OPS against righties since 2017 and Williams allowing seven runs in his last start.
Franmil Reyes, SD vs. SF
DK ($4,400) FD ($3,000)
This is yet another guy who continues to be disrespected by the DFS sites and he’ll continue to be in my articles until they raise his price. Last time we recommended him, Reyes actually provided two dingers against the Orioles. While that’s unlikely to happen again, it shows the power potential he possesses. We’re talking about a 6’5”, 280-pound dude who’s got 24 homers to match his .564 SLG, .384 xwOBA and .312 ISO. That doesn’t even take into consideration that this monster of a man is in Top 20 in hard-hit rate, exit velocity and barrel percentage. Don’t underestimate a beast like the Franmial!
Jorge Soler, KC at TOR
DK ($4,000) FD ($3,200)
Soler has 22 home runs and 55 RBI this season. Yes, you read that correctly. Soler ranks Top 8 in the AL in both home runs and RBI. Even as someone who loved Soler in his struggling days with the Cubs, those numbers really surprised me. The simple fact is, this dude is a masher right now and it’s clear that playing every day has done wonders for his consistency. What really adds to his intrigue here is that he gets to face Clayton Richard, who’s pitching to a 6.89 ERA and 1.69 WHIP while recording more walks than Ks. Those terrible numbers are even more worrisome considering the fact that it gives Soler the platoon advantage. Dating back to last year, Soler has a wOBA north of .400 against lefties while providing an .860 OPS.
I’ve hit 13 of my last 20 MKF picks and we’re going to look to keep that hot stretch going here. With only six games on the schedule, I’m going to go with just one recommendation.
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My mouth was watering when I saw this prop. A 2.08 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in his first two starts say a lot but his 3.09 ERA and 0.94 WHIP at Triple-A this season says even more. That doesn’t even take into consideration that he has 46 Ks in 32 innings this season, which equates to a K rate north of 30 percent. The Pirates rank 20th in both runs scored and wOBA, as Alzolay should cruise right through this 4.5-total.
After a postponement in St. Louis on Tuesday, we definitely need to monitor the weather today. Be sure to check in with the weatherman, Mark Paquette before submitting lineups.
Catcher
Gary Sanchez, NYY at BAL
DK ($5,500) FD ($4,400)
Stacking Yankees has become very popular recently and it’s hard to argue with people’s logic. Sanchez has been at the heart of those stacks and he’s simply the best hitting catcher in baseball. What’s truly amazing about Sanchez are his peripherals, with the slugging catcher posting a .450 xwOBA and .400 ISO so far this season. Those are both Top 5 in the league and it shows just how potent his bat is right now. A homer on Tuesday is a good omen too, as facing the Orioles is a treat for any hitter. The Orioles are throwing out Dan Straily for this game, who is sitting with a 8.51 ERA and 1.89 WHIP so far this season.
Also Consider: Willians Astudillo faces gas can Matt Harvey, and that definitely puts him in play at just $3,600 on DK.
First Base
Kendrys Morales, NYY at BAL
DK ($3,500) FD ($2,600)
While this recommendation didn’t work out on Monday, we’re going right back to the well. If it doesn’t work here, go ahead and forget about Morales for the rest of the year, because we just want to exploit the Baltimore matchups. Coming into Tuesday, Morales batted fifth in four of his first five games with the Yankees. That alone makes him a great option, with the Yankees projected for nearly six runs in this game. He’s also done some damage in those four games, providing two runs, one homer and four RBI in that span. We’re talking about a lefty bat with a career .190 ISO hitting in one of the best parks in baseball. All that would make one believe Morales is approaching $4,000 on both sites, as he remains quite the bargain in the $3,000-range against Straily.
Also Consider: Paul Goldschmidt is too cheap on both sites and could have success against a struggling starter like Brad Keller.
Second Base
Jonathan Schoop, MIN at LAA
DK ($4,100) FD ($3,400)
Stacking Yankees is probably going to be extremely popular, but stacking Twins should be right there with em’. The simple fact is, Matt Harvey should no longer be called the Dark Knight. I’d rather call him the Green Light because you want to start as many bats against him as possible. Dating back to 2016, Harvey has posted a 5.51 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. The peripherals have been just as bad, with Harvey posting a FIP above 5.00 over the last three years while posting a .373 xwOBA so far this season. That puts all of the Twins bats in play, as they’re currently the highest-scoring team in baseball. Schoop has been a huge part of that, collecting four doubles, four homers and 14 RBI over his last 17 games.
Also Consider: Gleyber Torres is pricey but he’s absolutely obliterated this bad Orioles pitching staff all season long.
Third Base
Miguel Sano, MIN at LAA
DK ($4,100) FD ($3,500)
This write-up will be abbreviated after that Schoop recommendation, as we obviously don’t need to discuss how badly we want to stack against Harvey. We’ll talk more about Sano, because he’s simply one of the best power bats in the game. In his first five games of the season, Sano has accumulated two doubles, two homers, five runs scored and five RBI. That shows the sort of potential he has, as his .235 career ISO is one of the best marks in the Majors too.
Also Consider: Alex Bregman is one of the highest-priced players on the board but he very well may be one of the best options out there against Ivan Nova.
Shortstop
Carlos Correa, HOU vs. CWS
DK ($5,100) FD ($4,100)
I really want to get some Astros in this article, but Correa is seemingly the only stud who is healthy. After a down 2018, Correa appears to be back to his 2017 form, in which he nearly snatched an AL MVP. In fact, Correa is posting a ,292 average and .925 OPS so far this season, while providing 11 homers, 12 doubles, 24 runs scored and 31 RBI. That simply makes him one of the best bats in baseball and it’s hard to fade him against a guy like Ivan Nova. The White Sox pitcher is sitting with a 7.42 ERA and 1.80 WHIP to match his .453 wOBA.
Also Consider: If you’re looking for a cheaper option, Corey Seager, at just $3,600 is quite the bargain for someone in the heart of one of the best lineups in baseball.
Outfield
Kris Bryant, CHC vs. PHI
DK ($5,400) FD ($4,300)
I initially had Bryant as a consideration at third base, but the more I thought about it, I had to get this guy in my article. Bryant is actually my best bet to homer on the slate and it’s really hard to argue with his recent form. Since April 26, Bryant is one of the league leaders with 10 homers, 22 runs scored and 24 RBI. Those are absurd numbers in a 22-game span and he’s especially tough to fade against lefties. For his career, Bryant is touting an absurd .979 OPS against left-handed pitching and has an OPS approaching 1.100 over the last two years.
Josh Reddick, HOU vs. CWS
DK ($4,400) FD ($3,200)
In the last two games without George Springer, Reddick has been moved into the leadoff spot. That’s the main reason we like him here, as the Astros have one of the highest projected team totals on the slate against Nova. That means their leadoff hitter should be very pricey and we actually get quite the bargain in this price range. Reddick is in the midst of one of the best seasons of his career too, posting a .331 average and .850 OPS.
Jorge Soler, KC at STL
DK ($3,600) FD ($3,000)
It’s hard to understand why Soler’s price remains so low, as he should be closer to $4,000 on both sites. Over the last two years, Soler has provided 19 homers and 30 doubles in about 100 games played. That’s a fantastic rate and it’s really no surprise when you consider his .216 ISO and .340 wOBA in that span. Those numbers are too good from someone priced so cheaply and we’re definitely not concerned about facing Adam Wainwright. Since 2016, Wainwright is sitting with a 4.77 ERA and 1.43 WHIP while posting a below-average K rate.
Also Consider: David Dahl has too much potential to be priced at $4,200 on DK and could thrive with the platoon advantage in his favor against Nick Kingham.
After a postponement in St. Louis on Tuesday, we definitely need to monitor the weather today. Be sure to check in with the weatherman, Mark Paquette before submitting lineups.
Catcher
Gary Sanchez, NYY at BAL
DK ($5,500) FD ($4,400)
Stacking Yankees has become very popular recently and it’s hard to argue with people’s logic. Sanchez has been at the heart of those stacks and he’s simply the best hitting catcher in baseball. What’s truly amazing about Sanchez are his peripherals, with the slugging catcher posting a .450 xwOBA and .400 ISO so far this season. Those are both Top 5 in the league and it shows just how potent his bat is right now. A homer on Tuesday is a good omen too, as facing the Orioles is a treat for any hitter. The Orioles are throwing out Dan Straily for this game, who is sitting with a 8.51 ERA and 1.89 WHIP so far this season.
Also Consider: Willians Astudillo faces gas can Matt Harvey, and that definitely puts him in play at just $3,600 on DK.
First Base
Kendrys Morales, NYY at BAL
DK ($3,500) FD ($2,600)
While this recommendation didn’t work out on Monday, we’re going right back to the well. If it doesn’t work here, go ahead and forget about Morales for the rest of the year, because we just want to exploit the Baltimore matchups. Coming into Tuesday, Morales batted fifth in four of his first five games with the Yankees. That alone makes him a great option, with the Yankees projected for nearly six runs in this game. He’s also done some damage in those four games, providing two runs, one homer and four RBI in that span. We’re talking about a lefty bat with a career .190 ISO hitting in one of the best parks in baseball. All that would make one believe Morales is approaching $4,000 on both sites, as he remains quite the bargain in the $3,000-range against Straily.
Also Consider: Paul Goldschmidt is too cheap on both sites and could have success against a struggling starter like Brad Keller.
Second Base
Jonathan Schoop, MIN at LAA
DK ($4,100) FD ($3,400)
Stacking Yankees is probably going to be extremely popular, but stacking Twins should be right there with em’. The simple fact is, Matt Harvey should no longer be called the Dark Knight. I’d rather call him the Green Light because you want to start as many bats against him as possible. Dating back to 2016, Harvey has posted a 5.51 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. The peripherals have been just as bad, with Harvey posting a FIP above 5.00 over the last three years while posting a .373 xwOBA so far this season. That puts all of the Twins bats in play, as they’re currently the highest-scoring team in baseball. Schoop has been a huge part of that, collecting four doubles, four homers and 14 RBI over his last 17 games.
Also Consider: Gleyber Torres is pricey but he’s absolutely obliterated this bad Orioles pitching staff all season long.
Third Base
Miguel Sano, MIN at LAA
DK ($4,100) FD ($3,500)
This write-up will be abbreviated after that Schoop recommendation, as we obviously don’t need to discuss how badly we want to stack against Harvey. We’ll talk more about Sano, because he’s simply one of the best power bats in the game. In his first five games of the season, Sano has accumulated two doubles, two homers, five runs scored and five RBI. That shows the sort of potential he has, as his .235 career ISO is one of the best marks in the Majors too.
Also Consider: Alex Bregman is one of the highest-priced players on the board but he very well may be one of the best options out there against Ivan Nova.
Shortstop
Carlos Correa, HOU vs. CWS
DK ($5,100) FD ($4,100)
I really want to get some Astros in this article, but Correa is seemingly the only stud who is healthy. After a down 2018, Correa appears to be back to his 2017 form, in which he nearly snatched an AL MVP. In fact, Correa is posting a ,292 average and .925 OPS so far this season, while providing 11 homers, 12 doubles, 24 runs scored and 31 RBI. That simply makes him one of the best bats in baseball and it’s hard to fade him against a guy like Ivan Nova. The White Sox pitcher is sitting with a 7.42 ERA and 1.80 WHIP to match his .453 wOBA.
Also Consider: If you’re looking for a cheaper option, Corey Seager, at just $3,600 is quite the bargain for someone in the heart of one of the best lineups in baseball.
Outfield
Kris Bryant, CHC vs. PHI
DK ($5,400) FD ($4,300)
I initially had Bryant as a consideration at third base, but the more I thought about it, I had to get this guy in my article. Bryant is actually my best bet to homer on the slate and it’s really hard to argue with his recent form. Since April 26, Bryant is one of the league leaders with 10 homers, 22 runs scored and 24 RBI. Those are absurd numbers in a 22-game span and he’s especially tough to fade against lefties. For his career, Bryant is touting an absurd .979 OPS against left-handed pitching and has an OPS approaching 1.100 over the last two years.
Josh Reddick, HOU vs. CWS
DK ($4,400) FD ($3,200)
In the last two games without George Springer, Reddick has been moved into the leadoff spot. That’s the main reason we like him here, as the Astros have one of the highest projected team totals on the slate against Nova. That means their leadoff hitter should be very pricey and we actually get quite the bargain in this price range. Reddick is in the midst of one of the best seasons of his career too, posting a .331 average and .850 OPS.
Jorge Soler, KC at STL
DK ($3,600) FD ($3,000)
It’s hard to understand why Soler’s price remains so low, as he should be closer to $4,000 on both sites. Over the last two years, Soler has provided 19 homers and 30 doubles in about 100 games played. That’s a fantastic rate and it’s really no surprise when you consider his .216 ISO and .340 wOBA in that span. Those numbers are too good from someone priced so cheaply and we’re definitely not concerned about facing Adam Wainwright. Since 2016, Wainwright is sitting with a 4.77 ERA and 1.43 WHIP while posting a below-average K rate.
Also Consider: David Dahl has too much potential to be priced at $4,200 on DK and could thrive with the platoon advantage in his favor against Nick Kingham.
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