The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the 2020 WGC FedEx St.Jude Invitational. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.
With the WGC or any other type of no cut event, I never play cash. As the main idea with cash games is to get six golfers into the weekend. There is just too much variance with mainly the best golfers in the world guaranteed to get four days of play.
Jon Rahm $11,400 (M3, 14%)
Justin Thomas $10,700 (M4, 16%)
Patrick Cantlay $10,100 (M26, 13%)
Collin Morikawa $9,500 (M1, 16%)
Xander Schauffele $9,800 (M2, 19%)
Matthew Fitzpatrick $9,000 (M5, 12%)
Daniel Berger $9,600 (M6, 15%)
Tyrell Hatton $9,700 (M10, 15%)
Webb Simpson $9,900 (M13, 15%)
Victor Hovland $9,400 (M14, 15%)
Sergio Garcia $8,000 (M16, 11%)
Gary Woodland $8,600 (M23, 13%)
Hideki Matsuyama $8,900 (M31, 10%)
Rickie Fowler $8,300 (M37, 10%)
Jason Day $8,200 (M38, 7%)
Jordan Spieth $8,100 (M47, 10%)
Corey Conners $7,300 (M15, 10%)
Bubba Watson $7,100 (M18, 10%)
Kevin Na $7,500 (M22, 6%)
Kevin Kisner $7,000 (M45, 6%)
Matt Kuchar $7,600 (M50, 7%)
Danny Willett $7,100 (M54, 4%)
Nick Taylor $6,100 (M20, 3%)
Ryan Palmer $$6,700 (M24, 5%)
C.T. Pan $6,100 (M29, 1%)
Tyler Duncan $6,200 (M39, 2%)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout $6,800 (M40, 4%)
Erik Van Rooyen $6,800 (M42, 5%)
J.T. Poston $6,500 (M48, 2%)
Shane Lowry $6,600 (M49, 5%)
Bernd Wiesberger $6,500 (M53, 3%)
Brandt Snedeker $6,400 (M58, 3%)
I wanted to switch it up for this article since we’re dealing with a no cut, invitation only event. The list above is for my 150 max contest of the week. It’s almost half the field and I do not expect you to run as many players as myself unless you’re going the same route. I’m gonna run through each price tier and add the players to individual contest selections and where I would play them.
9K – Morikawa, Fitpatrick and Xander
8K – Woodland, Matsuyama & Day
7K – Conners & Watson
6k – Taylor
These are guys that I feel can compete at a high level this week with respect to their price range. I did not get into the 10K range, even though there is no cut, I want to try and keep the “floor” as high as possible. I really like Taylor this week and it’s the only reason he’s in this section. If you want to drop him because of his price, by all means.
10K – Rahm or Thomas (Not both)
9K – Hovland and Berger
8K – Garcia
With these four players, add them to the Single Entry mix.
10K – The other player of Rahm and Thomas
9K – Hatton & Simpson
7K – Kuchar
6K – Palmer & Duncan
Add these six players to the SE/3 Max pool.
10K – Cantlay
8K – Fowler & Spieth
7K – Kisner & Willett
6K – Pan, Bezuidenhout, Rooyen, Poston, Lowry, Wiesberger and Snedeker
Finalize the 150 max pool with these golfers. As a general rule of thumb that I follow when “normally” entering 150 max is the higher the golfer is priced, in general you should have more of them in your lineups. For example…
10K Player – 40%
9K Player – 30%
8K Player – 20%
7K Player – 10%
6K Player – 5%
These golfers are priced like they are for a reason (for the most part). Don’t kill good lineups because you have 30% of a 6K player. Could he go off and you’re way up on the competition, sure. There’s a better chance that they sink those lineups instead. This is a no cut, so feel free to get a little more aggressive if you choose, this would be the event for it.
Projected Ownership – FanShareSports
Using the information above, you can even make some money on Monkey Knife Fight! As I said I like Rahm and I’m fading Rory, so you can grab the Over for Rahm, the Under for Rory and make some more money! Check out how to play with our quick overview here.
Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the 2020 3M Open. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailySports) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news. You can also come hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before lock!
In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big paydayat the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational and helping you find some winning teams!
PGA DFS pricing this week seems to encourage a more balanced approach, but I’ll be certain to mix things up in large-field DraftKings GPPs with a few studs-and-scrubs lineups.
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Justin Thomas (DK $10,900) – For a golfer like Thomas who’s interspersed three MCs with six Tops 10s (three of them Top 3s) over his last 10 tournaments, the advantage of playing all four rounds in a no-cut event is one that we should take advantage of, especially since he’s only the fourth-most expensive option in the field. The record at WGC events is good and there’s winning upside, but it might be wise to check in on his caddie before lock.
Rory McIlroy (DK $10,000) – Rory finished fourth here last year in the inaugural event that matched TPC Southwind with this WGC venue, and he’s carrying a chip on his shoulder after losing the No. 1 OWGR to Rahm. He’s an excellent GPP play since he’s no longer the clear betting favorite, and his talent should rise to the top with four guaranteed shots at this course.
Patrick Cantley (DK $10,000) – I’m not hearinga ton of chatter about Cantlay, but I like his chances at a sneaky Top 3 or Top5 finish here. The $10K price might drive some ownership toward cheaper golfersand there’s the recency bias of his poor form at the Memorial (T32). Hisall-around game should translate well here.
Tyrell Hatton (DK $9,700) – Hatton makes birdies in bunches with his prodigious putting and keeps posting excellent finishes (T6-W-T3-T4 in his last four events) on his journey toward major relevance. I can’t imagine he’ll be chalky enough to scare me off increase exposure in GPPs.
Daniel Berger (DK $9,600) – Berger loves this place, as his first two PGA Tour victories came at TPC Southwind, and everything about the venue seems to point to another top 10 finish. I won’t go all-in, but there’s a case to be made for using him even at this elevated price.
Also consider: Jon Rahm, WebbSimpson, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa
Viktor Hovland (DK $9,400) – Hovland may bemaking his WGC debut, but the pedigree is there for another leaderboard appearancecome Sunday. The youngster (first in this stackedfield in SG: Ball Striking, SG: Approach and Opportunities Gained)is actually underpriced considering his consistency hitting the ball long andstraight off the tee and right at flagsticks.
MatthewFitzpatrick (DK $9,000) – One of his most recent breakthroughs was the T4 he posted atSouthwind last year, and his game is heating up as he becomes more comfortablecompeting with the world’s best. The price will bother some folks so I’m morethan happy to go overweight on the slender 25-year-old with the elite shortgame.
PatrickReed (DK $8,800) – When nobody’s talking about Reed, he finds a way into the conversation– a trait that pairs well for GPP use in DFS. The masses don’t like playing aguy they don’t root for, and I’ll gladly cast my personal opinions aside for anedge in single-entry and large-field multi-entry tournaments.
Gary Woodland (DK $8,600) – Woodland is another guy flying under the radar this week, but the former masher has transformed his golf game to be straighter off the tee while maintaining his trademark distance. I know I’m in the minority looking his way, but I like Gary’s performance at similar venues and over the past several no-cut events, so I’ll be overweight on him this week.
AbrahamAncer (DK $8,400) – Ancer ranks 13th on tourin scoring average, which bodes well over four rounds at no-cut events,and his combination of form, overall ball-striking and affordability make himone of my favorite plays in the $8,000 to $8,500 range.
Matthew Wolff (DK $7,900) – The price jumped out at me, even if there’s plenty of risk involved, but Wolff has made some mental adjustments that have paid dividends in his last few events (excluding the Workday Charity Open). An upside-laden bargain in all formats who could see elevated ownership.
Matt Kuchar (DK $7,600) – The reason he’s this cheap is because he’s only finished in the Top 5 once in 2020, and it was at the Genesis Invitational in February. But maybe the pressure if off this week and Kuchar can go back to the things that have led to success in in the past.
Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama &Billy Horschel (Cash), Sergio Garcia & Sungjae Im (GPP)
Ian Poulter (DK $7,400) – Poulter makes for a fine cash game play in the value range, and there’s still plenty of Top 5 upside for a guy who can scramble with the best and doesn’t mind missing a few greens – something that’s going to happen to everyone this week.
AdamHadwin (DK $7,200) – The WinDaily writers’ group text inspired me to take a closer lookat Hadwin as a cash game option, but I’m willing to consider him in GPPs if hisownership doesn’t skyrocket. This is the cheapest we’ll probably ever see him,so it’s worth jumping on.
KevinKisner (DK $7,000) – Kisner is a frustrating golfer in DFS who cares very little aboutthe emotional rollercoaster this community endures, but he’s actually got agreat attitude for competing in strong fields and seems to bring his game inWGC events. At this price, that’s all we’re looking for – a shot at a Top 10.
Chez Reavie (DK $6,700) – Ifwe examine Reavie’s performances at the FedEx St. Jude Classic (which werefull-field events with a cut) from 2013-18, we see no missed cuts and three Top15s in his four tries. His strengths include consistency on approach and aroundthe green, partially explaining his success at Southwind.
Shane Lowry (DK $6,600) – Full disclosure: I’m a huge Shane Lowry fan who got burned pretty bad by his MC at the Memorial. But that windswept gauntlet is a different type of course from what awaits the world’s best players this week, and since we don’t have to worry about a missed cut, Lowry makes for a tempting low-cost GPP play.
More value golfers to consider: Bubba Watson (GPP), Danny Willett (Cash) Rafael Cabrera-Bello (GPP), Louis Oosthuizen, Ryan Palmer
Mackenzie Hughes (DK $6,400) – Everybody’s talking about the hot-putting Canadian this week, so there’s a chance we lose the ownership edge we might have had without all the hype. But what Hughes has done recently in undeniable (two Top 10 finishes in his last three events, including a T3 finish at the Travelers and a T6 at the Memorial).
Tom Lewis(DK $6,200)– A T12 finish at the Rocket Mortgage in Detroit and T32last week show that Lewis is probably underpriced considering his upside. Aconsistent ball-striker with a pedigree for stiffer competition (T12 at the 2019Open Championship), he’s finally showing off the form to match.
Nick Taylor (DK $6,100) – Taylor skipped the 3M after missing the cut at Jack’s Place, but he’s popping on the WinDaily models compared to his near-minimum price and is consistent enough tee-to-green to make sense as a GPP play.
Additional punts: ShaunNorris, Robert MacIntyre, Keegan Bradley (large-field GPP only)
The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at The Memorial. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.
**I’m going hard with stars and scrubs approach this week. Soft pricing tends to lead to balanced builds.**
***These players are good. Like most weeks, there’s really no need to explain why the top players are here. This week is no different, here is who I am playing.***
Rory McIlroy $10,700 (Model Rank #1, Projected Ownership 17%)
Bryson DeChambeau $11,100 (M5, 17%)
Xander Schauffele $9,200 (M7, 14%) – Schauffele finished T14 last week at the Workday Charity and is fifth in the field in strokes gained total over the last six weeks. With a T14 last year at The Memorial, Schauffele isn’t only a safe bet to make the cut but could be in the final pairing come Sunday.
Jon Rahm $9,300 (M12, 17%) – The talent has always been there and last Sunday, Rahm shot -8 to finish T27. That finish has catapulted his ownership but I don’t mind. This week I’ll be very overweight on Rahm this week.
Hideki Matsuyama $9,400 (M13, 15%) – Two top 20 finishes in his last two events out and three top 15 finishes at The Memorial, Matsuyama is one of the favorites. He started out strong last week, but his putter failed on the weekend. The speed of the greens should help a little with the flat stick and Matsuyama could find himself with another top 15 finish.
****Tiger Woods $9,000 (M17, 22%) – Ownership is just scary on him. I know he’s Tiger, but if he falters on his official return since the break, it’s a huge leverage spot****
Patrick Reed $8,400 (M11, 11%) – It must be the name, that keeps pulling me back. Every other week, Reed burns me but when he gets hot, he can run through a field. Reed has four straight cuts made here at Jack’s place coming in. Reed in 2020 has averaged .74 strokes gained putting, in three of his last four events, he’s lost strokes on the green. If his putter reverts to average, this week could be very good for Reed.
Tony Finau $8,300 (M23, 14%) – He missed the cut last year, but prior he finished with three top 15 in four tries at The Memorial. Not exactly a lock as he’s missed a cut since the restart and hasn’t really payed off his price either. Don’t go overboard but Finau has the talent to compete with the best here.
Sungjae Im $8,200 (M28, 9%) – What has happened to Im? Sungjae was averaging .39 stroked gained on approaches this year before The PLAYERS (1 round). Since then he’s lost strokes in 4/5 tournaments on approach. Im is more of a play on talent, ownership and price.
Matthew Fitzpatrick $8,100 (M36, 6%) – I’m both surprised and delighted that Fitzpatrick’s ownership is projected so low. He finished T27 last week on the same course. Fitzpatrick has made the cut in four of his last five tournaments with two T15. He made his lone cut at The Memorial last year. I know around the green play comes in and Fitzpatrick isn’t the greatest, but the rest of his game is plenty sharp to overcome that.
Kevin Kisner $7,500 (M18, 3%) – Kisner is an interesting option. On one hand the approach game and to a lesser degree around the green game are important at The Memorial. While Kisner does have a solid all around game, those are his weak points in 2020. On the other, we have a possible sub 5% owned golfer who in his last tournament (Rocket Mortgage) came in third. On top of that has made the cut here four out of the last five years. Those cuts made include TWO top 10 finishes. Kisner isn’t playing as well as in previous years, but he has the goods to surprise people this week.
Joaquim Niemann $7,900 (M25, 16%) – Statistically speaking, Niemann is having his best year of his young career. A world class ball striker, few in the field can compete with his irons. The one problem with Niemann is it seems one part of his game fails him. Charles Schwab (ARG), Travelers (Putter) and Workday (ARG). When it does come together it’s fantastic, RBC (T5). With the inconstant all around game, his ownership is rather high which gives me some pause. At his price though, the upside is tremendous.
Doc Redman $7,600 (M32, 7%) – Speaking of ball strikers, Redman is another elite player with the approach aspect of his game. Despite losing strokes with the wedge and putter the last three weeks, Redman has finished T21, T11 & T21. As we all know putting is the highest varying aspect of one’s game. If his can get his putter hot Redman could find himself in the top 5 this week at The Memorial.
Brian Harman $7,100 (M21, 1%) – Oh Harman, we meet again. After the RBC I started playing Harman. As I’m sure you know he then proceeded to miss the cut the two following weeks. His game in theory should setup perfect for The Memorial. I’ve said that though for previous weeks and it didn’t matter. He’s coming in with zero traction from the industry, hence the projected ownership. Third time is a charm, right?
Kevin Na $7,200 (M24, 6%) – Na withdrew last tournament with a back injury, a tournament he was somewhat popular. Na has always lost strokes off the tee and with the extra long rough this week it could be an issue. With that said all other facets of his game match up wonderfully at The Memorial. Won’t need much to match the field and an injury risk is always in play, but I’ll take a shot on Mr Na this week.
Lucas Glover $7,100 (M40, 11%) – Another strong iron player, Glover has been getting some love and it makes sense. Since the restart Glover has averaged over a stroke per round in approach and has finished T23, T21, T20 & T21. He also has not missed the cut since 2015 at The Memorial. While his ownership/price ratio goes against my philosophy I’m going go heavy on Glover this week and double the field in ownership.
Brendan Steele $7,100 (M60, 3%) – Steele had a great tournament last week despite the T52 finish. He gained almost a stroke and a half over the field in approach. His problem was the putter, it got cold quick. Losing almost 2 strokes a round is problematic. Now granted Steele has never been a world class putter but his 2020 average is around zero. If the two stroke departure from his putter can regain his 2020 form I could imagine Steele landing inside the top 20.
*****Won’t have more than 10% of any of these guy in my 150 max*****
Nick Taylor $6,900 (M20, 2%)
Troy Merritt $6,600 (M37, 3%)
Talor Gooch $6,500 (M39, 4%)
Matthias Schwab $6,400 (M51, 2%)
Max Homa $$6,800 (M52, 4%)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout $6,800 (M79, 1%)
Tyler Duncan $6,300 (M88, 2%)
******None of my plays in this section will ever be at 10K and above or 6K and lower.******
Patrick Cantlay $9,800 (M3, 23%)
Webb Simpson $9,600 (M4, 15%)
Daniel Berger $8,700 (M9, 17%)
Abraham Ancer $8,500 (M8, 21%)
Paul Casey $7,900 (M19, 16%)
Kevin Streelman $7,600 (M16, 16%)
Ian Poulter $7,600 (M22, 11%)
Adam Hadwin $7,400 (M14, 9%)
Corey Conners $7,400 (M57, 7%)
Harris English $7,300 (M29, 8%)
In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Memorial Tournament and helping you find some winning teams!
NOTE: The PGA DFS prices are pretty soft in the secondary tier, so it should be easy to build teams that look good and have monster upside. Focus on single entry GPPs and low-price MMEs.
Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,100) – If the roughgives him fits, he could struggle, but it’s hard to argue with the success he’shad harnessing his newfound distance. He won here in 2018 and could do itagain.
Dustin Johnson (DK $10,300) – DJ has six top 20s at the Memorial with aT8 last year, and he’s only three weeks removed from an impressive victory atthe Travelers. I’ll be using him as a low-owned GPP plug-n-play.
Collin Morikawa (DK $10,000) – Morikawa spent most of Sunday at Muirfield knocking down flagsticks and ended up walking away a victor in a playoff against Justin Thomas. There’s no way we can fade him here.
Patrick Cantlay (DK 9,800) – If we used plenty of Cantlay last week, there’s no reason we shouldn’t go right back to the well after his T7. He’s well-equipped to finish in the Top 5 this week and should be a leaderboard presence come Sunday.
Victor Hovland (DK $9,500) – A few late mistakes cost Hovland a chance at victory, but he was right in the mix all week long and remains one of the better T2G players in the tournament, leading the field in SG: Off the Tee.
Also consider: Justin Thomas, RoryMcIlroy (GPP), Webb Simpson (Cash)
Jon Rahm (DK $9,300) – Rahm is anabsolute steal at $9,300 given his upside, though form and course fit areconcerns. He works in all formats this week and provides one of the bettervalues in the $9K range.
XanderSchauffele (DK $9,200) – Schauffele and Rahm both provide some salary relief from the toptier while maintaining the same upside, so I’ll have some shares. Xander wasquiet lats week but finished with a respectable T14.
Tiger Woods (DK $9,000) – I probably won’t deploy Tiger in cash games, since there are plenty of safer options at this price point, but I can’t count him out in his search for his record 83rd win, especially without the normal distractions of a gallery.
Rickie Fowler (DK $8,800) – We got a good look at what Rickie can do when his game comes together in the third round at the Workday (66), and he’s trending up. It’s hard to go all-in but mixing in some GPP shares makes sense.
AbrahamAncer (DK $8,500) – Ancer’s form is excellent (T14-2-T11 coming outof the break) and he actually tops the tour in SG: APP. Add in the soaringfigures at the key efficiency proximity range (150-175 yards) and we’ve got alive one.
MatthewFitzpatrick (DK $8,100) – Fitz shook off his MC at the Travelers and made the cut at the Workday,and the week-to-week changes to the course (faster greens, longer rough) shouldhelp his strengths and set him apart as an even more favorable option.
Jason Day (DK $8,000) – Day had his best tournament since February’s fourth-place finish in Pebble Beach, and the price hasn’t yet come up. A classic risk-reward GPP play with Top 5 (and winning) upside.
Matt Kuchar (DK $8,000) – His form is somewhat questionable following a pair of ho-hum finishes (T41-T39) since the uncharacteristic missed cut at the Charles Schwab, but Kuchar is affordable and has had success at Muirfield with a pair of T4s in 2016 and 2017.
Paul Casey (DK $7,900) – Casey is an enormous risk despite still not missing a cut in 2020, but I love him as a low-owned GPP salary saver given his rankings in the WinDaily model.
Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama, DanielBerger, Tony Finau, Joaquin Niemann, Sergio Garcia, Gary Woodland, KevinStreelman, Doc Redman, Ian Poulter
Rory Sabbatini (DK $7,500) – Sabbs comes at a huge discount in this loaded field, and while he’s yet to break through here, he’s not a terrible cash game play.
CameronChamp (DK $7,400) – Champ is at the other end of the spectrum, as he has winning GPPupside but shouldn’t be deployed in cash games.
ShaneLowry (DK $7,200) – He’s 2-for-2 at the Memorial and his game fits this venue. I lovethe price and will be using plenty of Lowry this week.
Lucas Glover (DK $7,100) – There’s really a ton of value out there in the $7K range, which makes building teams a lot of fun this week. Glover checks all the boxes this week and comes in sporting excellent form, with four straight Top 25s since the restart.
Matt Wallace (DK $7,000) – Wallace is my sleeper play this week and should maintain low ownership. You won’t have to go overboard to stay ahead of the field, and he’s in good position to make the cut.
Max Homa (DK $6,800) – Homa missed the cut again last week, but he’s at least apologetic. I’ll be using him again in the hops that he can make some putts, as he finished T37 in his Memorial debut in 2019.
Zach Johnson (DK $6,700) – ZJ is just way too cheap given his cut-making upside, though he’s more of a cash game play. I don’t expect him to win, but a Top 25 could be in the cards.
Bud Cauley (DK $6,600) – Cauley has been all over the place here (T9-113-T25-T38 in his last four) and has missed three straight cuts since the Charles Schwab, but I’m using him in a handful of large-field GPPs.
More value golfers forGPPs: Billy Horschel, Adam Hadwin, Corey Conners, Nick Taylor, Maverick McNealy,Sepp Straka, Graeme McDowell, Troy Merritt, Bernd Wiesberger
Jason Dufner (DK $6,500) – He finished T7 last year and won the Memorial in 2017 – selling points for this enigmatic golfer among the bottom tiers.
Henrik Norlander (DK $6,300) – The stronger field is a tougher test, but Norlander’s recent form justifies using him in stud-scrub builds.
Tyler Duncan (DK $6,300) – I’m not the only one who likes him this week, but Duncan is one of a few solid golfers under $6,500 who could surprise.
Additional punts: Branden Grace, Harry Higgs, Tom Hoge, Andrew Putnam
Make sure to check out more PGA content over at WinDailySports.com/golf and follow us on twitter @WinDailySports! You can ask us questions in our Expert Chat on Discord free for 3 days!
In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Workday Charity Open and helping you find some winning teams!
PGA DFS DraftKings pricing is a little soft this week, so it’s pretty easy to put together some stacked teams. Make sure to check out WinDailySports.com for more FREE content, and hop in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with our pros!
Justin Thomas (DK $11,100) – Hopefully the week off did him some good, but the MC at the Travelers looms large for a guy this expensive. A risk-reward play in all formats, it truly depends on how much risk you can handle.
Jon Rahm (DK $10,900) – Rahm has the all-around game to make it work here – but he’ll have to limit his desire to overpower the course and take his shots from the fairway – not the long stuff.
Patrick Cantlay (DK 10,600) – He’s the defending champ at the Memorial and thus will be popular – especially coming off a T11 at the Travelers. I’ll try to be ahead of the field, even if that’s a tall order.
Brooks Koepka (DK $10,400) – One of the best GPP plays in the field, he’s always entertaining, even if it’s just taking jabs at Beefy Bryson. Koepka is definitely heating up and this could be the week he flourishes around the greens and notches a win.
Victor Hovland (DK $9,500) – Four straight Top 25s and only three scores in his last 12 rounds in the 70s – he’s a solid cash game option at the bottom of the first tier.
Also consider: Xander Schauffele,Justin Rose (GPP), Hideki Matsuyama
Collin Morikawa (DK $9,200) – Mr. Consistency squeaked by at the Heritage but saw his made cut streak end at the Travelers. With his iron play, the now under-the-radar Morikawa is a near lock to start another one this week.
Rickie Fowler (DK $9,000) – The price continues to remain affordable, but Rickie seems to have some stuff figured out (T12 last week) as he heads into a course where he has a couple of Top 10 finishes and a T14 last season.
Marc Leishman (DK $8,700) – Tops in the field for SG:APP, when Leishman gets hot with the putter, he can post obnoxiously low scores – and he has a good record at Muirfield. The inactivity and poor play since resuming tournament play is a concern, but I’ll trust the models and the course history.
Adam Hadwin (DK $8,200) – The Canadian is coming off a solid performance in Detroit and is another low-risk/solid irons/good scrambler combo player who could adorn the leaderboard come Sunday, Hadwin is worth a look in all formats.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,000) – He burned me by missing the cut at the Travelers but my crush on his short game and iron play refuses to yield. The Englishman and former U.S. Amatgeur champ still hasn’t won on the PGA Tour, but he’s come close – and he’ll be a staple in my GPPs builds at this price.
Scottie Scheffler (DK $7,800) – I’m throwing out the first-round 79 in Detroit and focusing on the 65 he fired in round 2. The course fits his strengths and the combination of recency bias and value makes him a prime target for me.
Joel Dahmen (DK $7,700) – The stat models love Joel and he hasn’t missed a cut since January 30 at the Waste Management Open – a stretch that includes six Top 20s in nine starts.
Also consider: Jordan Spieth, JoaquinNiemann, Gary Woodland, Cameron Champ, Corey Conners
Maverick McNealy (DK $7,500) – One of the best kept secrets in DFS, McNealy should garner more popularity this week following a T8 at the Rocket Mortgage, where he posted 21 birdies to just four bogey and a DBB. The kid can play.
Mark Hubbard (DK $7,400) – Hubbard keeps improving his form and establishing himself as a solid DFS option, but the price hasn’t caught up yet. Bogey avoidance will be a key stat for him this week.
Cameron Tringale (DK $7,300) – The MC at the Travelers was a letdown but Tringale remains a modest value option with upside and consistency making cuts (12/14 in 2020). If he can block out what the villagers are saying about his clothes, he should be okay.
Max Homa (DK $7,100) – Homa missed the cut at the Travelers, but he’s a good fit here with his ball striking and ability to scramble. Great value play for GPPs, as I believe he’s still massively underpriced.
Bud Cauley (DK $7,100) – Perhaps my favorite overall play this week, Cauley has the necessary chops around the green and is a solid ball-striker who’s popping in the stat models. I might go a little overboard considering the WD at the Travelers was due to Denny McCarthy testing positive, and not because of his play.
Keegan Bradley (DK $7,100) – Keegan’s biggest problem is his nerves, but he played well last week and should be comfortable here in Muirfield Village with the greens running a little slower than usual. An ideal large-field GPP play.
Sam Burns (DK $6,900) – Burns is a big risk, but he’s one of my favorite tournament plays and he’s starting to prove he belongs. I’ll be ahead of the field even if he gets popular.
Adam Long (DK $6,600) – If Long can keep it in the fairway, he’s a dangerous golfer with plenty of upside. The ultimate risk-reward GPP value play.
More value golfers forGPPs: Harold Varner, Rory Sabbatini, Chris Kirk, Troy Merritt, Tom Hoge, SebastianMunoz, Seung-Yul Noh
Henrik Norlander (DK $6,500) – There’s not a lot of upside once you get this cheap, but Norlander sticks out like a sore thumb with his recent finishes compared to his price. I’ll have plenty of shares and don’t mind a $5 or $10 win bet at 250-1.
Brandon Wu (DK $6,500) – He tested positive for COVID-19 last week but apparently has jumped through the necessary hoops to get in the field this week. He’s 4/4 making cuts in 2020, though he hasn’t played a tourney since the Pebble Beach Pro-Am in early February.
Peter Malnati (DK $6,000) – He finished 17th at the Memorial last year and is coming off a MC after a disappointing second round 74 (following an opening round 66). For $6K, you can’t have it all, but there is some upside.
The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the RBC Heritage. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.
These players are good. Like most weeks, there’s really no need to explain why the top players are here. This week is no different, here is who I am playing.
Rory McIlroy $11,300 (Model Rank #1, Projected Ownership 16%)
Jon Rahm $10,500 (M3, 14%)
Xander Schauffele $10,200 (M4, 12%)
I didn’t like DeChambeau like most of the top guys last week as I thought he was a poor fit, I was wrong. Despite that though, I’m doubling down and avoiding him this week as well at the RBC Heritage. Thomas is an elite player with an amazing iron game, which this course demands. He ranks outside of the other big names, though barley, and he’s off my list simply due to lineup construction. Morikawa is my boy and I’ll have a few shares in my 150 lineup tournament, but that missed 3ft putt might weigh on him and force him to press.
Sungjae Im $9,700 (M5, 22%) – I was on Im last week and he payed off well finishing 15th in points. The price hike is not scaring anyone away though as he is one of the highest owned golfers this week. He’s certainly the highest projected ownership on my team though. Im comes in top 15 in pretty much everything: Ball Striking, Scoring, Performance, Around the Green and Odds. All of this can be found here.
Hideki Matsuyama $9,500 (M6, 12%) – Matsuyama didn’t play last week and if you look through my pool, he’s the only one. With that said, his game sets up perfectly for Harbour Town GL. The only reason he made it was the last time we saw him, Matsuyama was on FIRE at THE PLAYERS (another Pete Dye course). His sub 15% ownership certainly helps as well.
Patrick Reed $8,800 (M10, 16%) – The public’s persona of Reed must be finally wearing off as his ownership keeps climbing. Reed can light up a DK scoreboard, which was on display last week. He finished in the top 10 and second to only Berger, despite 20 less finishing points. Reed might be entering core territory for this week.
Abraham Ancer $8,000 (M22, 10%) – I’ve always been hesitant to play Ancer in the past but starting with his play at the President’s Cup, he’s been making waves. He followed it up with three top 25 finishes in the American Express, WGC Mexico and last week’s Charles Schwab Challenge. Ancer is the perfect pivot from Hatton (who I do like) with roughly half the ownership and he actually played last week.
Matthew Fitzpatrick $7,900 (M14, 9%) – Fitzpatrick was just heating up before the break with a 9th place finish at the Arnold Palmer. Before that he didn’t have the best finishes, though he made the cut and was trending in the right direction. If he can capture his 2019 finish where he went 4/5 top 20, at sub 10% ownership, Fitzpatrick could be a sneaky good play.
Shane Lowry $7,800 (M23, 6%) – Lowry burned us last week but prior had two top 30 in 2020. His approach game could be better but he has a good short game to compensate. His game once again should translate well here at the RBC Heritage but I said that last week. Won’t need many shares to be overweight.
Billy Horschel $7,700 (M20, 10%) – Horschel is just a solid golfer all around. His 2020 didn’t start the best (MC and 68th finish) but since went 9, 9, 42, 36 and 38th last week. He has the 16th best odds despite being the 26th priced player on DraftKings. Horschel has been averaging 3.6 strokes T2G his last five tournaments and is a better putter on Bermuda.
Ian Poulter $7,600 (M24, 8%) – Poulter was almost a cash play, thinking his ownership would be higher (more on that later). At sub 10%, I don’t know what more you want from a golfer in this price range. Third in strokes gained total for the tournament with three top 15 finishes the last three years. Eight made cuts dating back to last year. His best putting surface…Bermuda! He’s not the biggest DK scorer but at $7,600 you won’t need much to cover.
Adam Hadwin $7,300 (M13, 7%) – Hadwin has made the cut at Harbour Town GL the last three times out with two top 30. Hadwin doesn’t do anything special but is a grinder. I won’t have a lot of Hadwin but down here in this price range, you could do worse.
Harris English $7,300 (M17, 6%) – Talk about recency bias, Harris was 18% owned last week, sub 10% now?? Yes please! Before the MC last week he was coming in with three top 20, including a 9th place finish at the Arnold Palmer. Not only was he on a tear before the break but he also has a 25th place finish at last year’s RBC Heritage. Core piece, I think so.
Bud Cauley $7,200 (M19, 8%) – With five straight made cuts coming into Harbour Town GL, Cauley looks like a very safe bet. Perhaps he doesn’t have the upside to win, but he can land a top 10 if his putter gets hot. Cauley has the 14th best strokes gained total for the tournament and has solid recent form with a 29th showing last week.
**New this week, I wanted to show plays you could build a lineup around for 50/50, double ups, etc in partnership with the plays above. These are plays that I like but are too high owned for my preference in big GPPs. While these plays may get mixed in, they are designated for cash games more.**
Justin Rose $9,200 (M43, 15%)
Webb Simpson $9,000 (M18, 25%)
Gary Woodland $8,400 (M11, 19%)
Matt Kuchar $8,300 (M27, 15%)
Tony Finau $8,200 (M26, 15%)
Joel Dahmen $7,500 (M15, 11%)
The Range is a course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. This week the tour heads to South Carolina as the players face off in the RBC Heritage.
Course: Harbour Town Golf Links at the Sea Pines Resort
Par: 71
Length: 7,099 Yards
Fairways: Celebration Bermudagrass
Greens: TifEagle Bermudagrass (3,700 sq ft average)
Architect: Pete Dye (1969)
Past five winners: ’19 Pan (-12), ’18 Kodiara (-12), ’17 Bryan (-13), ’16 Grace (-9) and ’15 Furyk (-18)
For a hole by hole breakdown, visit the PGA Tour website here.
The RBC Heritage in many ways is like Colonial the week before. Many holes are narrow (though they have been made wider since 2019), tree lined that limits the big hitters. Greens are small, even smaller than those at the Charles Schwab Challenge last week on average. Low final scores are a bit of a scarcity as four of the last five winners were held to -15 or higher, with the lone exception of Furyk in 2015.
Usually the field isn’t this strong, especially coming off of The Masters the week prior. With the Covid break in the tour, the field at the RBC Heritage is the strongest it’s been in years, possibly ever. The top six golfers in the world (OWGR) and 15/20. This will not be a cake walk.
With the lower than tour average finish, looking at golfers who perform well in average to difficult scoring conditions is a great first step. The fairways will be a challenge to land the ball in-between the trees and if there is an errant drive (with the lack of fans) balls may become lost. If the golfers do land the ball in the fairway their approach game has to be on point. These greens are tiny with many of the them being protected by bunkers. Once the golfers have landed on the Bermudagrass greens, putting will be crucual.
Here is a look at the top 10 golfers over the last 12 rounds who have performed well (SG:TOT) with all three conditions being present.
For the RBC Heritage four of the five toughest holes fall in the range of 450 – 500 yards and all are par 4. On the other end, the two easiest holes are in between 500 – 550 and both are par 5. Being able to score when given the opportunity in these ranges will go a long way in ascending the leader board. This is a second shot course, a Pete Dye specialty. While the approach shot will vary from each golfer, on average, they range between 175 – 200 yards.
I know it sounds like common sense but both Birdie or Better and Bogey Avoidance are big pieces of the puzzle. For Draftkings, you have to be able to score points to win. While you want your golfers to finish as high as possible, making the most of the opportunity to score is so important. Last week Patrick Reed finished T7 but was the second highest scoring golfer for the week. Opportunity Gained is a Fantasy National stat and while it cannot be shared with non subscribers, rest assure it is incorporated to my model.
To make it simple, Ball Striking is always king (impart to it combining two main stats). Ball striking take into account both SG:OTT and SG: APP. Normally it would be an even split, but for Harbour Town I’m setting it to 60/40.
Missing the green isn’t a question of if, but when. Golfers need to be able to get up and down when off the green. SG:ARG is a great starting point. Players who do well with scrambling and GIR, will be another set of stats for this week.
Here are the top 10 golfers that perform well with all conditions met over the last 12 rounds.
Wind seems to be manageable at the time of this writing but being closer to the water, you never know. There does seem to be some rain in the forecast though both for Thursday and Saturday. If it looks like there is a possible wave play I’ll add it to the discord come Wednesday night.
As we saw last week, some of the golfers simply looked rusty. While many of the same golfers are teeing it up this week as before, keep a look out for “newcomers”. While the fields have never been as strong, winners tend to come out of no where at Harbour Town GL. Despite the soft pricing, this might be the week to take some shots with the darts.
Course Setup
Average to Difficult Scoring
Hard to hit fairways / Second Shot Course
Bermudagrass Greens (Small in circumference)
Player Efficiencies
Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 Yards
Par 5 Scoring: 500 – 550 Yards
Proximity: 175 – 200 Yards
Birdie or Better
Bogey Avoidance
Opportunity Gained
DraftKings Scoring
Ball Striking
SG: Around the Green
Scrambling
GIR
Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research for the RBC Heritage at Harbourt Town GL. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my personal player pool and reasoning why each golfer was chosen. Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions.
Stat Source: Fantasy National GC
The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.
**This reset is different then what we’ve seen before. With this in mind, I like all four of the $10,000 plus guys to a degree and have zero problems rostering any of them. I do however have them ranked as such
McIlroy
JT
Rahm
(Yes the spacing is intentional and no Bryson isn’t on here. DeChambeau ranked the worst of the four so hes getting axed all together on my lineups but again, no real issue overall, just a roster construction)**
Sungjae Im $9,300 – Im is simply a machine when it comes to playing and practice. There is no doubt, he’s ready for the tour to resume, as it was reported Im was trying to play in fake tournaments during the break. Im is second in the model and is top 20 in all of the important stats.
Justin Rose $9,000 – Rose is more of a play on history as he won at Colonial Country Club back in 2018. He does everything well, except sometimes he is lacking in DK scoring. At sub 15% ownership, the scoring is the only thing keeps me from locking in Rose as one of my highest owned golfers.
Collin Morikawa $9,100 – If you have been reading my articles at all, you know I’m all about Morikawa. I try to lock him in my core each and every week as he’s simply a cut machine with high upside. His iron game is already elite, but this week he will not be making my core *insert sad face*. While it’s a small sample, Morikawa does not perform all that well on the shorter par 70’s where par 5’s are limited. He will still be in my player pool as I will not miss his next win but not the core.
Gary Woodland $8,800 – Woodland comes in at fourth in my model and his lack of course history (much of the industry go to this week) should keep his ownership sub 15%. Great with a driver out of his hand, Woodland might make my core.
Jason Day $8,300 – As Sicily (Steven) mentioned in his article, Day seems to be the forgotten man this week. Sitting in fifth in the model, Day is both top 30 in fairway play and scoring, which compliments his short game very well. Injury is always a concern, but Day has the talent to win at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Shane Lowry $8,600 – Like Day. Lowry is another low owned player. Before everything went down the drain, Lowry was coming off back to back top 30s. At possible sub five percent ownership, he is certainly worth a shot.
Scottie Scheffler $8,400 – Scheffler is no longer a secret and the public has caught up, with possible 15% ownership. Scheffler had three top 30’s coming into THE PLAYERS and finished round one at T8. Ive been a fan of his for a while and was in my core last time out. Scottie can certainly light a score card (in a good way) and despite higher ownership, should be a regular in your lineups.
Tony Finau $8,700 – Speaking of course history, Finau is beast at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Four top 35 in five tries with a second last year. He wasn’t playing his best before the break but Finau has the ability to go low any round and last year showed big hitters can contend as well.
Kevin Na $7,600 – I generally never go back to the well with the most recent winner but Na pops in at number one on the model. His lack of play during the break is a bit concerning but this isnt Na’s first go around. He knows himself the best and maybe the rest will be beneficial. His around the green game is special that few can match on tour. He will be roughly 15% owned but I’ll take my shots.
Byeong Hun An $7,400 – It was between An and Palmer for this spot but An, when on, is hands down better than Palmer. Palmer’s ownership was creeping up as well. An will need his putter to get hot (like usual) but at $7,400 and possible 10% ownership, the play is too enticing to ignore.
Daniel Berger $7,700 – Berger seems to never get the love, and this week at the Charles Schwab Challenge is no exception. With 10% expected ownership I’ll be heavily over weight. Making his appearance in the top 15 of the model, which is lead by his recent play (before the pandemic) and his around the green game.
Russell Knox $7,200 – Knox has been starting to gain some traction in the industry which is a bit surprising with his four missed cuts leading into this week. That said, Knox always plays well here with three top 25 in his last five trips. Still sub 10% ownership allows you to be overweight with a smaller investment.
Cameron Davis $6,500 – You might be asking yourself, who? Davis has five starts on the PGA Tour in 2020 with five made cuts. He’s finished top 10 twice (Sony and The Honda) where his approach game carried him. He isn’t safe at all as its a small sample size but Davis ranked eighth in the model this week and number one in around the green stats.
Jimmy Walker $6,700 – Walker is a grinder at the Charles Schwab Challenge with four made cuts and two top 20’s in his last four tries. What’s nice to know is Walker was playing well before the stoppage with two top 25’s leading up to THE PLAYERS.
Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the Charles Schwab Challenge. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailySports) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news. You can also come hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before lock!
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