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Jon Rahm

Insight Sheet: Charles Schwab Challenge

Patrick Waters 4 years ago

written by Patrick Waters

The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.

**This reset is different then what we’ve seen before. With this in mind, I like all four of the $10,000 plus guys to a degree and have zero problems rostering any of them. I do however have them ranked as such
McIlroy
JT

Rahm
(Yes the spacing is intentional and no Bryson isn’t on here. DeChambeau ranked the worst of the four so hes getting axed all together on my lineups but again, no real issue overall, just a roster construction)**

Players Priced between $9,900 and $9,000

Sungjae Im $9,300 – Im is simply a machine when it comes to playing and practice. There is no doubt, he’s ready for the tour to resume, as it was reported Im was trying to play in fake tournaments during the break. Im is second in the model and is top 20 in all of the important stats.

Justin Rose $9,000 – Rose is more of a play on history as he won at Colonial Country Club back in 2018. He does everything well, except sometimes he is lacking in DK scoring. At sub 15% ownership, the scoring is the only thing keeps me from locking in Rose as one of my highest owned golfers.

Collin Morikawa $9,100 – If you have been reading my articles at all, you know I’m all about Morikawa. I try to lock him in my core each and every week as he’s simply a cut machine with high upside. His iron game is already elite, but this week he will not be making my core *insert sad face*. While it’s a small sample, Morikawa does not perform all that well on the shorter par 70’s where par 5’s are limited. He will still be in my player pool as I will not miss his next win but not the core.

Players priced between $8,900 and $8,000

Gary Woodland $8,800 – Woodland comes in at fourth in my model and his lack of course history (much of the industry go to this week) should keep his ownership sub 15%. Great with a driver out of his hand, Woodland might make my core.

Jason Day $8,300 – As Sicily (Steven) mentioned in his article, Day seems to be the forgotten man this week. Sitting in fifth in the model, Day is both top 30 in fairway play and scoring, which compliments his short game very well. Injury is always a concern, but Day has the talent to win at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Shane Lowry $8,600 – Like Day. Lowry is another low owned player. Before everything went down the drain, Lowry was coming off back to back top 30s. At possible sub five percent ownership, he is certainly worth a shot.

Scottie Scheffler $8,400 – Scheffler is no longer a secret and the public has caught up, with possible 15% ownership. Scheffler had three top 30’s coming into THE PLAYERS and finished round one at T8. Ive been a fan of his for a while and was in my core last time out. Scottie can certainly light a score card (in a good way) and despite higher ownership, should be a regular in your lineups.

Tony Finau $8,700 – Speaking of course history, Finau is beast at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Four top 35 in five tries with a second last year. He wasn’t playing his best before the break but Finau has the ability to go low any round and last year showed big hitters can contend as well.

Players priced between $7,900 and $7,000

Kevin Na $7,600 – I generally never go back to the well with the most recent winner but Na pops in at number one on the model. His lack of play during the break is a bit concerning but this isnt Na’s first go around. He knows himself the best and maybe the rest will be beneficial. His around the green game is special that few can match on tour. He will be roughly 15% owned but I’ll take my shots.

Byeong Hun An $7,400 – It was between An and Palmer for this spot but An, when on, is hands down better than Palmer. Palmer’s ownership was creeping up as well. An will need his putter to get hot (like usual) but at $7,400 and possible 10% ownership, the play is too enticing to ignore.

Daniel Berger $7,700 – Berger seems to never get the love, and this week at the Charles Schwab Challenge is no exception. With 10% expected ownership I’ll be heavily over weight. Making his appearance in the top 15 of the model, which is lead by his recent play (before the pandemic) and his around the green game.

Russell Knox $7,200 – Knox has been starting to gain some traction in the industry which is a bit surprising with his four missed cuts leading into this week. That said, Knox always plays well here with three top 25 in his last five trips. Still sub 10% ownership allows you to be overweight with a smaller investment.

Players priced between $6,900 and $6,000 (Punts)

Cameron Davis $6,500 – You might be asking yourself, who? Davis has five starts on the PGA Tour in 2020 with five made cuts. He’s finished top 10 twice (Sony and The Honda) where his approach game carried him. He isn’t safe at all as its a small sample size but Davis ranked eighth in the model this week and number one in around the green stats.

Jimmy Walker $6,700 – Walker is a grinder at the Charles Schwab Challenge with four made cuts and two top 20’s in his last four tries. What’s nice to know is Walker was playing well before the stoppage with two top 25’s leading up to THE PLAYERS.

Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the Charles Schwab Challenge. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailySports) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news. You can also come hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before lock!

4 years ago 0 comment

Insight Sheet: THE PLAYERS Championship

Patrick Waters 4 years ago

written by Patrick Waters

The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock of THE PLAYERS Championship. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. ...

4 years ago 0 comment

PGA Premium

The Range: THE PLAYERS Championship

Patrick Waters 4 years ago

written by Patrick Waters

The Range is a course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. This week the tour is in Florida as the players face off at THE PLAYERS Championship. The BasicsCourse: TPC Sawgrass Stadium CoursePar: 72Length: 7,189 yardsGreens: TifEagle Bermuda Fairways: Celebration BermudaA...

4 years ago 0 comment

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Insight Sheet: WGC Mexico Championship

Patrick Waters 4 years ago

written by Patrick Waters

The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock for the WGC Mexico Championship. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall pl...

4 years ago 0 comment

PGA

The Range: WGC Mexico Championship

Patrick Waters 4 years ago

written by Patrick Waters

The Range is a course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. This week the tour is in Naucalpan, Mexico as the players face off in the WGC Mexico Championship.

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The Basics

Course: Golf Club De Chapultpec
Par: 71
Length: 7,345 yards
Fairways: Kikuyu (Narrow)
Greens: Poa (Fast) – Though it has been pointed out that the greens play more like Bent Grass according to @JBates_golf and @BPSnow11.

Past five winners: ’19 Johnson (-21), ’18 Mickelson (-16), ’17 Johnson (-14), ’16 Scott (-12), ’15 Johnson (-9). (Only the last three years was it played on the current course)
For a hole by hole breakdown, check out the PGA Tour website here.

Course Introduction

The WGC Mexico Championship is a no cut event that has been held in Naucalpan, Mexico, just north of Mexico City. The golf course has narrow, tree lined fairways. The elevation above sea level (more then a mile above) make the course play shorter then the yardage would indicate. While the golfers that can drive the ball a mile tend to do well, the raise in elevation really brings in the shorter hitters as well.

While this WGC Mexico tournament is no birdie fest, it should play easier then the Genesis Invitational last week. Average winning score is around -15 and with a star studded field (72 players) there should be no short of excitement come Sunday afternoon.

Course Breakdown

With an average score setting laid out this week, let’s look at the golfers who have performed well in Stroked Gained Total over the last 12 rounds.

Ball striking, like most weeks, is a crucial part of the golfer’s game. With fairways and greens being smaller than tour average at the WGC Mexico, we’ll need golfers at the top of their game both off of the tee and approach. Here are the top golfers who have excelled in ball striking over the last 12 rounds.

While the course lists the greens as Poa, the idea that they play more like bent has been mentioned. Here are the top 10 golfers both on Poa and Bent as well as their baseline to begin with.

With all three course conditions applied, here are the top 10 golfers. If last week is any indication, you might see this list near the top of the leader board. At the Genesis Invitational , the top 10 included: eight cut makers, three top fives with both Kuchar (T2) and the winner Adam Scott.

Player Fit

The WGC Mexico has five holes that play extremely tough as they’re Par 4s that are 500+ yards. The elevation should help and you can think of them more as 450 yard Par 4, but having golfers that excel in this range could be a huge help. To narrow it down even further, I’m specifically looking at the 125 – 150 range for proximity.

Opportunity Gained will be factored in once again, from Fantasy National. While I think Bogey Avoidance holds some water at the WGC Mexico Championship, with a no cut event, I’m targeting birdie makers/fantasy point scorers (BOB/DK Points).

Here are the top players with all the combined stats from above.

Final Recap – WGC Mexico Championship

I think looking at golfers that have length on their drive is a solid starting point but I wouldn’t rule out the shorter hitters all together. Perhaps use the distance as a tie breaker. The field is stacked despite some of the top name skipping this week. With that in mind, you’ll see golfers lower in salary then normal but just because they’re cheap doesn’t mean they’re a good play. No cut events are fun, because your roster is never dead but it can often be frustrating as the edge diminishes. I would recommend playing lite this week.

Course Setup
Average scoring
Hard to hit fairways
Poa Greens (Bent grass feel)

Player Efficiencies
Ball Striking
Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 yards
Proximity: 125 – 150 yards
BOB
Opportunity Gained

Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research at the WGC Mexico Championship. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my personal player pool and reasoning why each golfer was chosen. Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions.

While this article, The Range, will remain FREE, the Insight Sheet will require a Premium Gold membership. To make sure you don’t miss out, sign up for our Premium Gold membership right here!

Stat Source: Fantasy National

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: WGC-Mexico Championship

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the WGC-Mexico Championship, and helping you find some winning teams!

The PGA DFS picks this week focus on the more expensive golfers, and many of my value picks are European tour regulars who may prefer this layout and its surfaces to the Americans.

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Course Notes:

Stacked tournament field of 70 golfers
No cut event
The course: Club de Golf Chapultepec (in Naucalpan, just outside Mexico City)
7,330 yards, Par 71, but elevation (7,600 feet) makes it much shorter
Poa annua greens, more Kikuyu
Parkland style: Tree-lined fairways favored by European golfers
Defending champ: Dustin Johnson (won in 2017 & 2019)
Course comp: Crans-sur-Sierre Golf-Club in Switzerland (Omega Masters)
Focus Stat Categories include Strokes Gained: Approach; Opportunities Gained; Bogey Avoidance; Birdie or Better %; Proximity from 125-150, Par 4s: Gained

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,500, FD $12,200) – He’s almost guaranteed a Top 10 finish this week, all things considered. He’ll have a huge advantage off the tee and putting is less important on these surfaces. Rory is my pick to win this week and I’ll be around 40-50% again in GPPs.

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,000, FD $12,000) – If Rory is my 1A favorite, DJ is my 1B. Anything shy of a Top 3 finish will likely hurt us if Rory ends up winning (because of the much tougher pricing this week). Johnson is guaranteed four rounds here barring some type of injury, and his talent and ball-striking should shine through.

Jon Rahm (DK $10,600, FD $11,800) – “Rahmbo” finished third here in 2017 and could see lower ownership than the other high-priced studs. T17 last week and no TV coverage of his Sunday round could affect recency bias and make him a great GPP choice.

Xander Schauffele (DK $9,400, FD $11,100) – He finished T23 after carding a 69 on Sunday in the Genesis, but really struggled with his putter – a common theme. If we toss that out and get a little better flat stick performance from him, he’s a great bet for the Top 5.

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $9,000, FD $10,800) – He’s a GPP-only and he didn’t fare too well here last season. If he’s made the necessary math adjustments and can putt a little better this week, we could see the beefier Bryson fare quite well.

Also consider: JustinThomas, Adam Scott, Hideki Matsuyama, Tommy Fleetwood

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $8,900):

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $8,900, FD $10,400) – No more discounts this week for guys like Louis – who would have come in well under $8K. He’s a perfect GPP play who’s improved each time he’s played here.

Paul Casey, (DK $8,700, FD $10,700) – I like him for one of the same reasons as Oosthuizen (continued improvement in course history), and he’s putted well here in the past. He’s a ball-striking madman and could get popular.

Sergio Garcia (DK $8,600, FD $10,300) – Three straight Top 15s here with Top 10s in his past two. If his putter gets hot, we could see a breakthrough weekend and a pretty good return on our investment.

Gary Woodland (DK $8,300, FD $10,100) – The biggest question mark with Gary is SG: Approach, which is, unfortunately, an important focus stat this week. He’s a GPP play for me on lineups where I’m looking for balance and a slew of Top 15 guys with upside.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK ($8,000, FD $9,600) – The price increase wasn’t too bad (+ $300 on DK), and I doubt we’ll see ownership eclipse 10% this week. I’m still waiting for his breakout performance of 2020, and this could be the week.

Rafael Cabrera-Bello (DK $7,600, FD $9,200) – RCB suits our profile here and finished third in 2018 when he posted four rounds in the 60s (good for a DK bonus). His form is solid enough (T17 last week at Riviera) and another Euro golfer we have to consider.

Also consider: Matt Kuchar, Patrick Reed, Collin Morikawa, Cameron Smith, Abraham Ancer, Victor Perez

Value PGA DFS (DK $7,500 and under):

Bernd Wiesberger (DK $7,400, FD $8,400) – Coming off two MCs at the European Tour’s desert venues, Wiesberger will see much lower ownership than the 23rd ranked player in the world (who’s won three times in the last year) on a course that fits him like a golf glove. And his pricing on both sits is very affordable.

Tyrell Hatton (DK ($7,400, FD $9,100) – Hatton has played well here but it’s his first start of 2020 following wrist surgery. Let’s hope for a limited number of rough lies than a be complicated by the spongy and thick Kikuyu.

Kurt Kitayama (DK ($7,200, FD $8,800) – Kitayama finished T18 at Pebble Beach after a T6 finish in the desert in Dubai. He’s a world traveler with plenty of experience on different surfaces, so I think his frustration level could be lower than others in the field.

Kevin Kisner (DK ($7,200, FD $9,400) – He could easily become frustrated with the putting surfaces, as he much prefers Bermuda – but Kisner is a gamer with three straight Top 30s at this event (his best finish here was 11th in 2017).

Charles Howell III (DK ($7,100, FD $9,500) – Finished 14th here in his tournament debut last season and has the length and ball-striking prowess to post another solid Top 20, but I’m not going overboard like folks did last week when he disappointed and finished T59.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $7,100, FD $9,000) – It’s hard to say how he’ll adjust to the elevation and perform in his debut, but he’s a good fit, and he’s talented enough to shine in his WGC debut.

Lee Westwood (DK $6,900, FD $8,300) – He’s really turned his career around and has played here a couple of times (28th in 2017, 33rd in 2019). Won in January at the Abu Dhabi HSBC over Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick and Victor Perez – three other golfers I’ll have shares of this week.

Lanto Griffin (DK $6,700, FD $8,100) – He’s got a shot at a Top 20 finish, and for this price, I’ll have some exposure in GPPs. It was encouraging to see him make the cut and finish among the Top 40 last week in his Genesis debut.

Erik Van Rooyen (DK $6,600, FD $8,200) – I don’t have much interest in the golfers under $7K this week, but I’ll have some exposure to EVR again after he missed the cut last week.

More value golfers forGPPs: Matt Wallace, Danny Willett, Christian Bezuidenhout,Carlos Ortiz, Mike Lorenzo-Vera, Jorge Campillo

4 years ago 0 comment

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Insight Sheet: The Genesis Invitational

4 years ago

written by

The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock for the Genesis Invitational. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play....

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: Genesis Open at Riviera CC

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Genesis Open and helping you find some winning teams!

Your PGA DFS picks this week should focus on including both stars and scrubs lineups and a more balanced approach.

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Stacked tournament field of 120 golfers (invitational)
Tourney host Tiger Woods tees it up along with 119 other golfers he hand-picked to include many of the world’s best
The course: Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles, CA
7,322 yards, Par 71
Poa annua greens, Kikuyu grass in fairways and rough
Long par 4s, long approaches (many at 175+ yards)
Cut: 36-hole cut, so top 65 and ties play the weekend
Defending champ: J.B. Holmes
Course comp: Quail Hollow
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, SG: Around-the-Green; Driving Distance; Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500; Proximity: 175-200

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,600, FD $12,200) – The new No. 1 player in the world, and the betting favorite, Rory checks all the boxes at Riviera. He hasn’t yet won here, so I’m personally hoping for a Rory-Tiger showdown on Sunday.

Justin Thomas (DK $11,000, FD $12,000) – JT remains one of the favorites to win here, and while I won’t be all in, there’s plenty of reasons not to fade him – including two straight Top 10s (a second-place finish last season among them).

Tiger Woods (DK $10,400, FD $11,600) – This was the site of his first PGA event (way back in 1992 when he played as a 16-year-old), but he’s never won here. I’d love to see him breakthrough with his first victory, and he certainly has the game and profile to do it. I’ll just be happy to come in slightly ahead of the field in terms of GPP ownership.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,800, FD $11,400) – I love him this week, and while I’m not alone in that regard, I’ll be sure to be well ahead of the field in terms of ownership. If Koepka and Rory make 40-50 percent of my GPP builds, Cantlay will be next at around 35-40 percent.

Brooks Koepka (DK $9,400, FD $11,500) – The fact that Koepka missed the cut here in his only try (2017) will keep his ownership down, but it’s hilarious that he’s cheaper than both Tiger and Bubba Watson. I’ll have plenty of exposure in GPPs for this grinder on a grinder’s course. He’s second on my rankings after Rory.

Adam Scott (DK $9,000, FD $10,800) – Scott isn’t as exciting as many of the other golfers in the $9K range, but he’s had a good track record here and won the Australian PGA Championship in December. There could be some rust, but I still like him for his Par 4 (450-500) stats.

Also consider: Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama

My model rankings show studs up top and some value plays like Carlos Ortiz, Bud Cauley and Erik Van Rooyen filling out the Top 25.

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,100 to $8,900):

Marc Leishman (DK $8,700, FD $10,500) – Leishman, like the next golfer on our list, has all the attributes we look for at Riviera, and with a reduced price because of the studs clogging the “elite” cost range. I’m far from all in, but it won’t be a complete fade.

Justin Rose (DK $8,500, FD $10,700) – He’s an excellent ball striker who outclasses a lot of the field on long approaches. He makes for a solid GPP play considering his MC at the Farmers and T4 finish here last season. A solid Top 10 bet with winning upside.

Sungjae Im (DK $8,000, FD $9,900) – I think he’ll make the cut and he’s a weekly threat to finish Top 10. He should excel here because of his SG: ARG stats, and I’m not too concerned about him missing the cut here last season in his first try. We’ve seen guys fare poorly here a first-timers and figure it out quickly.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK ($7,700, FD $9,700) – I’m betting on Fitzy shaking off the bad week on the roller coaster that is the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and getting right back to what he does best – firing low scores and filling out GPP lineups with enormous upside.

Kevin Na (DK ($7,600, FD $9,600) – We can’t count him out based on his course history T2 in 2018 and T4 in 2017). I’m not the biggest fan of his game and I’ve been burned by his WDs before (haven’t we all?), but there’s plenty of value here.

Branden Grace (DK ($7,500, FD $9,600) – Do you like discounts? Grace’s price has dropped $1,800 since last week, and we can take advantage of the soft pricing and roster this South African golfer who has gone on record that he likes this track for its similarity to his home courses.

Joaquin Niemann (DK ($7,300, FD $9,400) – We saw a Joaquin do well in LA at the Oscars, and now it’s this guy’s turn to shine and rise like a Phoenix. He fits all the focus stats categories with the glaring exception of SG: ARG, but he managed to make the cut and finish 44th here last year as a first-timer. Clearly a GPP-only play, Niemann will make about 10-20 percent of my builds.

Jason Kokrak (DK $7,100, FD $8,900) – If you’re looking for a great value play, look no further than Kokrak, who’s popping on all my models for his balance of ball-striking and distance and is 5/5 here with a T2 in 2016. If the short game comes through he could make an appearance on the leaderboard come Sunday.

Also consider: Patrick Reed, Paul Casey, Charles Howell, Ryan Moore, Max Homa, Cameron Champ, Scottie Scheffler, Adam Hadwin

Value PGA DFS (DK $7,000 and under):

Erik Van Rooyen (DK $7,000, FD $8,800) – Full disclosure – I use Van Rooyen a lot in GPPs and love his combo of ball striking and distance. He’s not the best around the greens, so he’s always an X-factor for that reason and not my favorite cash gameplay.

Carlos Ortiz (DK $6,800, FD $8,400) – He might be popular this week, especially if folks are looking at course history and the same focus stats as we are. Carlos putts well on poa annua and ranks well on long Par 4s (450-500).

Martin Laird (DK $6,500, FD $8,000) – Another horse for the course, Laird loves the West Coast and had three straight Top 15 finishes here from 2016-2018 before missing the cut in 2019. He ranks 23rd in the field on Par 4s (450-500), and he’s quite a bargain.

Michael Thompson (DK $6,400, FD $7,300) – I had to change one number from last week’s writeup: “I like that he finished ~~T10~~ T7 here last year and ranks highly in the Strokes Gained (overall) and SG: ARG categories. Worth a look in GPPs, but very risky.”

Talor Gooch (DK $6,300, FD $7,600) – Gooch is a cut maker and he’s finished in 20th place in his only appearance here in 2018. He’s incredibly cheap and should be a staple of my GPP builds.

Luke List (DK $6,600, FD $7,700) – List was one of the hottest golfers in DFS back in 2018, and he’s had his share of ups and downs. But he’s coming off a couple of made cuts and decent play at the Farmers Insurance Open (T36) and Waste Management Open (T25) and he’s played well at Riviera. A GPP filler who has a decent shot at making the cut and finishing Top 25.

Sung Kang (DK $6,700, FD $8,100) – Kang is one of many Korean golfers who seem to play well at Riviera, which has similar turf to the native grasses on their home courses on the other side of the world. He’s got plenty of upsides this week.

More value golfers for GPPs: Bud Cauley, Brian Harman, Patrick Rodgers, Sam Burns, Steve Stricker, Kyoung-Hoon Lee, Brian Stuard

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4 years ago 0 comment

PGA

The Range: The Genesis Open

Patrick Waters 4 years ago

written by Patrick Waters

The Range is a course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. This week the tour is in California as the players face off at the Genesis Open.