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PGA DFS Picks: Sentry Tournament of Champions

Brian Tulloch
written by Brian Tulloch

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Strong field limited to 42 golfers
  • No Cut
  • 2020 winner: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • The course: Kapaulua (The Plantation Course) in Lahaina, HI
    • Par 73 (7,596 yards)
    • On a resort, but the Ben Crenshaw/Bill Moore design has been updated in 2019 to prevent too much bombing
    • More emphasis on approach and accuracy
    • Bermuda greens
    • Course knowledge helps
    • Wind will play a factor this week
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Ball Striking, Par 4s Gained, Par 5s Gained, Proximity from 100-125, SG: Off the Tee, Birdie or Better %, SG: Putting (Bermuda), GIR

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,000) – DJ is the betting favorite to win, and he’s done it here before. My ownership will be in large part driven by the field’s. The issue is he’s tops in my model in five of the nine categories I listed above – and top five in three others. The lone outlier is his No. 11 ranking in SG: Putting on Bermuda. He’s too good to fade.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,700) – JT is only about a half-step behind DJ in price but doesn’t really lack in any major categories except putting on this surface – which we probably shouldn’t weigh as a huge factor. You’re probably going to have to pick your stud, because fitting both requires too many scrubs. I’d like to come in right around the field ownership percentage on Thomas this week.

Jon Rahm (DK $10,400) – Rahm has been keeping limber and already has three Top 10s in three tries here. This could be the year he breaks through, and I’ll have shares in all formats. If the winds picks up like it’s supposed to, he’s a good guy to have in your lineup. The club change and new look probably shouldn’t hurt his chances here – but the mental aspects of golf are usual a huge part of his successes and failures on the course.

*Xander Schauffele (DK $10,000) – He seems to thrive in no-cut events and he notched a win here in 2018. The price is correct here and Schauffele could end up being a very popular GPP choice by Sunday when folks fade the chalky Johnson and JT. If X-Man’s approaches from 100-125 are on point this week (he’s only 40th in the field in that stat), he could win again. He’s a way better play than Bryson DeChambeau at this venue – and he’s cheaper.

*NOTE: Xander had a rough time during his COVID-19 diagnosis, and he hasn’t played much golf in the past few weeks because of the quarantine. He’s still an option for MME and large-field GPPs, but I might keep him out of my SE and cash games.

Also consider: Patrick Cantlay, Patrick Reed

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $9,000) – With all due respect to Webb Simpson, who I’ll have some shares of, Matsuyama is my favorite player in this price range. Although Deki is just No. 18 in my model, he overperforms in wind and he gained considerable confidence on the putting surface over the past few tourneys before the December break. I’ll be overweight on the field.

Collin Morikawa (DK $8,800) – He played well in his Sentry debut last year and his game fits the profile for this course and the windy conditions. Morikawa is No. 13 in my mixed model and his performance here will hinge on his putting. I’m a big fan of this guy, and a no-cut event in a strong field might be just what he needs to get back some of his confidence that flagged a bit in late 2020.

Daniel Berger (DK $8,600) – Berger will be popular, and there’s a few guys I like a bit better for GPPs coming in just under his price – but there’s no discernible reason to fade him unless he gets super chalky. At No. 5 in my mixed model, he and Tony Finau are the only two sub-$9K golfers in my Top 10.

Cameron Smith (DK $8,400) – The Aussie debuted here in 2017 (to a T17 finish) and this is his first time back. There’s much more to like now about his game, and it’s very possible I like him more than most of the other golf experts out there. I’m most concerned about the conditions with Smith, who should have plenty of scoring opportunities if things don’t get too tough out there.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $8,300) – He’s a horse for the course and last year’s fifth place finish is testament to that. Niemann is also No. 11 in my model and while he can get a little squirrelly around the greens, he’ll have a few days to find his mojo.

Also consider: Webb Simpson, Tony Finau, Harris English, Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Abraham Ancer (GPP), Kevin Kisner, Sergio Garcia (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Sebastian Munoz (DK $7,500) – I don’t think he can win here, but if we’re trying to find value pieces to round out our lineups, Munoz might be a nice fit. A top 15 could be good enough for cash builds and I’m not ruling out a few fliers in multi-entry GPP.

Marc Leishman (DK $7,400) – The no-cut event will help him, and he’s got a fourth and seventh place finish here in his two appearances. Leishman has excellent control over his ball flight and can go high or low when necessary, which makes him a solid value option GPPs because he’s one of the only sub-$8K golfers with Top 5 upside.

Jason Kokrak (DK $7,300) – A first-timer at Kapalua, Kokrak punched his ticket at Shadow Creek with his first PGA Tour win. I may not be all-in on Jason, but I love his game and so does the mixed model – which puts him 10th in the field overall.

Lanto Griffin (DK $6,900) – Lanto likes the wind and the course, as he finished 13th in his debut here last season. He’s one of the best value on the board and will be a staple of my single-entry GPP builds.

More value golfers to consider: Brendan Todd (Cash), Ryan Palmer, Mackenzie Hughes (GPP), Kevin Na (GPP), Stewart Cink

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Michael Thompson (DK $6,500) – The mixed model numbers don’t indicate anything special with Thompson, but his wind performance stands out among the scrubs. I’ll give him a look in two or three of my 20 lineups in my 20-max GPPs.

Martin Laird (DK $6,400) – Another first timer at this venue, Laird offers excellent value at $6,400 based on his ball-striking and ability to hit greens. Lots of folks are flocking to Richy Werenski at $6K, but a few more bucks gets you a better golfer overall.

Additional punts: Andrew Landry, Brian Gay (GPP)

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Insight Sheet: The 2020 Masters

written by

The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the 2020 Masters. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord Wednesday night to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for over...

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PGA DFS Picks: The Masters at Augusta National

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at The Masters and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Reduced field of 93 golfers but all the big names – it is the Masters, after all
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 50 and ties & 10-stroke rule NOT in effect
  • Last year: Tiger Woods (-13)
  • The course: Augusta National (Donald Ross)
    • Par 72: 7,475 yards
    • Bentgrass greens
    • Tournament is being played in November, so the weather (low-to-mid 70s) and course are different than the normal April event
    • The Ryegrass overseeding requires constant watering in the fall, so it’ll be wetter than normal; there’s also rain/storms in the forecast most of the day Thursday
  • Still no “gallery” for this tournament
  • The defending champ (Tiger) is barely playing (and not playing well) and certainly doesn’t look 100 percent.
  • There’s a dude who can hit it nearly 400 yards in the field (Bryson)
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Driving Distance, SG: Approach, SG: Putting (Bentgrass), SG: Around the Green, Par 5 scoring

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,200) – The big boy’s been inciting some audible gasps at his length this week during practice rounds (we’re talking driver-7-iron on the 575-yard Par 5 second hole and driver-wedge at the 13th), and there’s a lot of chatter about how his new power approach could dominate. Bryson’s similarly innovative arm-lock style on the greens could also exorcise his Augusta putting demons, so I’m grabbing plenty of GPP shares – even at top dollar.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,700) – While I don’t blindly follow my PGA DFS models, Thomas is at the top of mine this week. This is his fifth appearance at Augusta National – where he’s scored better and finished higher in each attempt. He’s still without a top ten, but JT is remarkable with his ball-striking here – ranking 11th, sixth, second and third in greens hit over the last four years. The recent form has been solid, with a win and three runners-up in the restart, and I’m willing to take a shot at what could be lower ownership than Jon Rahm and DJ, the next two guys on the pricing chart,

Jon Rahm ($10,500) – The Spaniard’s recent results have been staggeringly good – with six victories, five seconds and three third place finishes worldwide since he finished, he notched a top 10 at last season’s Masters. That T9 finish was on the heels of a fourth-place finish here in 2018 – so it’s safe to say he doesn’t have major problems contending here, pun intended.

Dustin Johnson (DK $10,000) – The two missed starts due to COVID-19 could have thrown a wrench into his prep, but over his last six events that straddled that spell, he’s almost in a class by himself. DJ had a T2 here in 2019 – his fourth consecutive top 10 (he was injured in 2017) – and my biggest concern about him is always his putter.

Xander Schauffele (DK $9,800) – If you were wondering who was second in my model, look no further. The X-Man has been described as a “quick study” at Augusta, going from 50th in 2018 to T2 at the 2019 Masters. In total, he’s played 13 majors in his career and has made the cut in 12 and finished six times among the top 10. His form is solid too, so I can’t imagine a much better core play in cash or GPP.

Also consider: Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka (GPP), Patrick Cantlay

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Patrick Reed (DK $9,200) – He’s only average off the tee, which may be a bigger factor than normal is this course plays soft, but his game around the greens have helped him win here before (-18 in 2015). A fine GPP option with winning upside.

Tiger Woods (DK $9,100) – I’d be fine coming in around or a bit under the field’s ownership percentage for GPPs, because I have a hard time seeing him defend without much form to speak of, but you can’t count him out at Augusta.

Adam Scott (DK $8,900) – Scott won at both Riviera (in February) and in December at the Australian PGA and doesn’t have any top 20s since then. But he won at Augusta in 2013 and has five career top 10s here. He loves this place (16 made cuts out of 18) and you can’t really blame him.

Tony Finau (DK $8,800) – I’d love to have the brass to put my Finau GPP ownership at 100 percent, but I’ve been burned by him before. The longtime tournament “bridesmaid” has played quite well in a short sample at Augusta (T10 in 2018 and T5 in 2019) and he’s been a relatively consistent golfer this season.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $8,700) – Despite a near perfect fit for the venue, Matsuyama has actually placed worse in each year he’s played Augusta since 2015, but it’s a different time and he’s putting with confidence lately and dominating par 5s – a game changer for this ball-striking maestro. I’m definitely interested in GPPs if he doesn’t get too popular.

Jason Day (DK $8,400) – He’s long enough and sharp enough around the greens to win here, with five straight Top 30s at Augusta and plenty of good mojo in his last few starts. In a perfect world, awesome dudes like Jason Day would win more majors.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $7,600) – The numbers in my focus stats for Fitzpatrick look like the heartrate monitor of an astronaut – he’s no worse than 33rd (BoB Gained) and no better than 23rd (SG: P) in any one category. This week, I’m most excited about his elite short game, and most concerned about his average length.

Also consider: Tyrrell Hatton, Bubba Watson, Matthew Wolff (GPP), Rickie Fowler, Paul Casey (GPP), Louis Oosthuizen, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Rose (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Phil Mickelson (DK $7,500) – Lefty is like an older Tiger without the back issues and has similar struggles to Woods keeping it in the fairway – but he’s still made four out of his last five cuts at Augusta. He’s also got three green jackets and 15 (wow) top 10s, his last Top 5 coming via a T2 in 2015.

Cameron Smith (DK $7,300) – My model is not kind to Smith, who fares poorly in several of the focus stat categories – but he’s 3-for-3 here with a T5 in 2018, and he’s a solid mid-level value considering his steadily improving play and string of made cuts since the memorial in July. Even his fellow Aussies think he’s got a shot this year in his fourth Masters appearance.

Lee Westwood (DK $7,200) – I’ll throw out his missed cut and focus on his record in the last decade here, which includes five top 10s since 2010. He’s not without his risk, as he hasn’t played here since 2017, but he’s still pretty long off the tee for an older fellow and there’s lots of upside at this price.

Kevin Kisner (DK $7,100) – He’s far from a bomber, but Kisner is always good with the putter and around the greens, and he can compete in tough fields. His record here isn’t as good as the similarly priced Matt Kuchar, but he’s 4-for-4 here and could be primed for a Top 10 if the stars align.

Cameron Champ (DK $7,100) – The ultimate GPP wildcard, Champ will get the nod in my large-field tourneys at about a 15-20 percent clip, depending on this masher’s projected ownership. He’ll be there because of two factors – his ranking atop the SG:OTT category and his growing confidence in tougher fields.

Ian Poulter (DK $7,000) – No signs of decay in this witty Brit, who remains among the Top 50 in the world rankings and usually plays well at Augusta, with 12 made cuts in 13 tries. Pair that with a great price and the No. 29 ranking in my model and you get a guy worth using in all formats.

Francesco Molinari (DK $6,700) – He’s way too cheap and can get insanely hot with the putter — and while it took him a while to warm up to Augusta, his last two finishes (T20 in 2018, T5 in 2019) suggest he’s learning the ropes. Molinari has played just twice since February, but the T15 at Houston last week looks like an upward arrow to me.

Lanto Griffin (DK $6,600) – Lanto could be ready to make the jump into the OWGR Top 50, but Augusta makes for a difficult virgin test. The Masters rookie is far from a cash game play and may not even crack the Top 20, but he’s No. 36 in my model and could end up in a few of my GPPs.

More value golfers to consider: Shane Lowry, Jason Kokrak, Erik Van Rooyen, Bernd Wiesberger, Zach Johnson (GPP), Si Woo Kim, Matt Wallace (GPP), Sebastian Munoz (cash), Corey Conners, Christian Bezuidenhout (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Adam Hadwin (DK $6,500) – He’s no doubt a longshot to win (250-1), but he’s 2-for-2 at Augusta, he’s popping in all my models and he has the second-shot chops to finish in the Top 20 here. I’m all over him this week and he’s an early leverage-play staple of my single-entry GPP builds.

Lucas Glover (DK $6,400) –Glover occupies the spot in this column that Patton Kizzire took up last week (he finished T11), and there’s a similarity between the two players – they can both roll it really well. If Glover can find fairways and make the cut, a Top 25 is well within reach at a venue that’s given him some trouble before.

JT Poston (DK $6,200) – A slight fellow with decent length off the tee, Poston is another guy that isn’t awful at anything. He’s a first-timer at Augusta but if the course is playing easier than usual, he could make for a fine value at this near-minimum price.

Additional punts: Chez Reavie (cash), Charl Schwartzel (GPP), Victor Perez, Charles Howell, Jimmy Walker

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PGA DFS Picks: ZOZO Championship @ Sherwood

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the ZOZO Championship @ Sherwood and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Strong field of 78 golfers, including defending champ Tiger Woods!
  • No cut
  • The course: Sherwood Country Club (Thousand Oaks, CA)
    • Par 72: Approx. 7,100 yards (Jack Nicklaus design)
    • Bentgrass/Poa Annua greens
    • Elevation changes, fast greens and cooler weather could keep scores in check
    • Longer hitters may have slight advantage because of temps, but it’s not a long course
    • Getting hot with the putter will help
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better%, SG: T2G, SG: Putting (Bentgrass), SG: Around the Green, Par 5 scoring

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Xander Schauffele (DK $11,200) – Schauffele squandered a 36-hole lead at the CJ Cup as Jason Kokrak won for the first time on the PGA Tour, leaving Schauffele with his fourth second-place finish since his last win – way back in January 2019 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. This week, he’s the most expensive golfer and makes for a fine play in all formats because of his accuracy off the tee, his “no-cut specialist” status and all-around complete golf game. Whether or not I use him in GPPs depends on ownership as we approach lock.

Jon Rahm (DK $11,000) – Rahmbo finished the 2019 season in the PGA Tour’s Top 20 in GIR and this week will have hopefully shaken off some of the rust that plagued him in Las Vegas. There’s no reason to fade him this week and plenty to like about his performance in the WinDaily projection model (second after Xander). I love him as a GPP play this week.

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $10,000) – Hatton finished T3 last week at Shadow Creek and now has five Top 25s in his last six starts – made all the more impressive considering he’s played a limited schedule. There aren’t many players better T2G than Hatton, who brings plenty of upside to the ZOZO.

Patrick Reed (DK $9,600) – Reed is eschewing mechanics and metrics en route to his approach – which places more emphasis on feel. He’s not the best off the tee, but he’s a SG hero with one of the best short games in golf. As long as he’s not missing every fairway, he should do well at Sherwood.

Also consider: Rory McIlroy (GPP), Justin Thomas (cash), Webb Simpson, Tony Finau (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Viktor Hovland (DK $9,200) – After firing a disappointing opening-round 75, Hovland settled down and played the next 36 holes 9-under par ultimately finishing in the Top 15 at Shadow Creek. His domination of Par 5s could prove to be an enormous help this week (there are five Par 5s at Sherwood) as he seeks another PGA Tour win.

Matthew Wolff (DK $9,100) – Wolff got off to an abysmal start last Thursday with an opening round 80, and pretty much never recovered in the no-cut CJ Cup. He’s still one of the longest hitters in the game (averaging 311.6 yards per drive in 2019-20) and the SG: Off the Tee stat is an important one this week at Sherwood, which is not far from where Wolff grew up.

Tiger Woods (DK $9,000) – Because he’s struggled recently and hasn’t played much, it’s easy to forget that Tiger won the ZOZO last year when it was held overseas. At the time, he was coming off a two-month layoff, so I’m not that concerned with rust, especially at a no-cut event on a course he’s dominated (five titles – all from the Hero World Challenge – at Sherwood).

Daniel Berger (DK $8,900) – Berger fares very well in the WinDaily model and is a tremendous buy-low value after a few pedestrian finishes over his last four tournaments (T28 at Shadow Creek and T34 in the U.S. Open).

Harris English (DK $8,800) – English missed the cut at the Shriners a couple of weeks back, but consistently finishes in the Top 10. He makes for a great cash game play and works for tournaments as well.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $8,400) – His finishes have steadily increased week-to-week since the Tour Championship, and while he occasionally misses a cut, that’s not a problem this week. He’s a fine value in this price range and has the T2G chops to win here.

Abraham Ancer (DK $7,800) – Ancer played some impressive golf at the Shriner’s with steady play in the mid 60s all week (4th place w/ 66-66-65-67), and finished T28 last week at the CJ Cup. If the putter can get hot again, he’s looking like a great play under $8K.

Also consider: Bubba Watson, Jason Kokrak (GPP), Matthew Fitzpatrick, Russell Henley, Adam Scott (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Paul Casey (DK $7,500) – The value play of the $7-8K range, Casey finished T69 last week but maintains plenty of upside in GPPs despite his inconsistent play this season. He’s a dynamic player who showed us at the PGA Championship how well he can play when he’s finding his groove.

Justin Rose (DK $7,400) – I have my concerns about his short game, but I’ll give Rose a shot in some GPPs at a no-cut event based on his low price and the theory that his solid T2G game will eventually come around.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $7,200) – Another solid ball-striker who’s stepped up his game lately,Munoz makes for a viable DFS play at a really affordable price.

Cameron Smith (DK $7,200) – We said last week that Smith doesn’t seem to be intimidated by strong fields and he wasn’t – en route to a solo 11th place. If his ball-striking recovers, he could sneak into the Top 10 this week.

Lanto Griffin (DK $7,000) – Ownership might be high this week since he finished T7 at the CJ Cup, but his price is still very affordable and he’s a solid enough putter to make up for a few wayward shots.

Cameron Champ (DK $6,800) – Champ may be a longshot to win, but he’s really long off the tee and he’s the kind of outlier player I like using in GPPs. With no cut and his length possibly coming into play at elevation with the lower temperatures than normal, I’m a fan.

Harry Higgs (DK $6,700) – Last week was Kokrak’s time…now Higgs is looking for his time to shine. In his search for his first PGA Tour win, a strong T2G game will help his cause,

More value golfers to consider: Brian Harman, Ryan Palmer (GPP), Talor Gooch, Alex Noren (GPP), Byeong Hun An, Corey Conners (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Mackenzie Hughes (DK $6,500) – The WinDaily model loves him this week and I’m too intrigued by his upside to worry about the T65 finish last week. I’m jumping right back on board at this price.

Tom Hoge (DK $6,400) – As Sia pointed out on the ZOZO stream, Hoge is a really good player who just doesn’t hit it that long off the tee. He’s a longshot, but he’s got Top 25 upside this week.

Michael Thompson (DK $6,100) – Thompson won the 3M in July and has struggled since. But he’s near the minimum price on DK and clearly has the upside to make sense for some GPP lineups.

Additional punts: Joel Dahmen, Richy Werenski (GPP), Tyler Duncan, Ryo Ishikawa

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PGA DFS Picks: CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Strong field of 78 golfers replete with big names
  • No cut
  • The course: Shadow Creek Golf Course (North Las Vegas, NV)
    • Par 72: 7,500+ yards (Tom Fazio design)
    • Bentgrass greens
    • One-time venue (it’s usually held in South Korea)
    • Tough course (record is just a modest 66)
    • Shorter Par 5s (except one at 600+ yards)
  • Not really a desert venue, as Fazio “manipulated” the  redesign to add rolling hills, trees and more
  • Distance control will be important, high-upside golfers preferred
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, SG: Approach, Birdie or Better%, Par 4s (450-500) SG: Putting (Bentgrass)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,300) – While we don’t have any real course history to look at, we do know that Rahm is the type of golfer who performs well in no-cut events, and he’s the betting favorite this week with Dustin Johnson withdrawing after a positive COVID test. He could get chalky, but he’s a fine cash game play and should be near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,800) – It’s easy to forget how much of a complete golfer JT is, especially since he has been overshadowed by some of the game’s other (younger) stars. But this PGA tour veteran remains an elite ball striker who excels in approach shots from all distances. That’s going to help this week.

Xander Schauffele (DK $11,400) – Fading Xander seems like a bad idea this week. The X-Man has an impressive record in no-cut events and is capable of dominating from start to finish, even in tough fields like this.

Matthew Wolff (DK $10,000) – Is there a hotter golfer than Wolff? His form and makeup suggest that rostering him is a priority, and there’s reason to believe this T2G monster might come in at low enough ownership to make him a tourney-breaking large-field GPP option. It’s a second-shot golf course, and nobody’s more dialed in than him right now.

Collin Morikawa (DK $9,500) – Recency bias could keep the masses off Morikawa, but he’s a great value golfer and high-upside player who belongs in the top tier. He’s 30-1 to win at the CJ Cup, but there’s no reason to believe he can’t take down this field and emerge victorious in Vegas.

Also consider: Rory McIlroy (GPP), Tyrrell Hatton

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Daniel Berger (DK $9,300) – Berger is another talented performer who’s elevated his game over the past calendar year, and I’ll have massive shares of him in lineups that use only one of the elite-tier golfers above. Roster construction is going to be tricky this week, but Berger offers some salary relief in all formats – without sacrificing too much upside.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,900) – Can he back up his smack-talking comments criticizing Beefy Bryson now that he’ll get some extra distance from elevation? It’s a 7,500-yard course, and since I’m a massive fan of his T2G and short game, I’ll give him a look in GPPs.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $8,800) – The PGA Tour’s Rookie of the Year is one of the best values in the field, and he ranks inside the top 25 in par 5 scoring since the restart. He’s a birdie maker with plenty of GPP upside, even though his past couple of events (withdrew due to COVID, MC) haven’t gone all that well.

Sungjae Im (DK $8,700) – Speaking of upside, I’m intrigued by Im’s recent play and think this could be the week he breaks through with a Top 5 finish. The ball-striking and approach game has improved over the past few events and the South Korean offers massive value at this depressed price.

Harris English (DK $8,600) – Another solid golfer who continues to perform at a high level but hasn’t seen a huge price jump, English makes plenty of sense for cash game builds here. He’s not super exciting to roster, but he gets it done in all types of fields and events.

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $8,500) – Outside of a third-place finish at a remarkably tough Winged Foot at the U.S. Open and a T6 at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude, his upside has been lacking a bit. But there’s still a really dynamic golfer in there who loves to shine at big events, and the no-cut format should help him stay birdie-focused. Worth a look in all formats.  

Also consider: Rickie Fowler (GPP), Paul Casey, Brendan Todd, Gary Woodland

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Joaquin Niemann (DK $7,500) – Niemann misses a cut once in a while, but that isn’t a problem this week, and his form suggests he could be the best value within the $7-8K range. He’s a wonderful player T2G, and his confidence is building.

Si Woo Kim (DK $7,100) – Kim is way too cheap for how well he handles the slings and arrows that different golf courses will throw at him, and he offers a steady combination of solid approaches and serviceable short game. With three top-15 finishes in his past seven starts, I’ll have plenty of shares at this low price.

Corey Conners (DK $6,900) – The first of three Canadians in this price range we have to discuss, Conners is a longshot to win (100-1) but possesses the game to do well here and should have a good chance at making the Top 20. I’ll have some shares in GPPs.

Mackenzie Hughes (DK $6,800) – Canadian number two has a little more upside because of his birdie-making ability and recent form (four Top-15s in his last five starts). The price works, too.

Cameron Smith (DK $6,800) – Smith doesn’t seem to be intimidated by strong fields and he’s had success at this event in the past – albeit at a different venue. He’s also posted four Top-25s in his past five events and has soaring GPP upside under $7K.

Adam Hadwin (DK $6,700) – Another Canadian who could benefit from the extra distance from elevation at this course, Hadwin is a textbook second-shot golfer who sometimes struggles with the flat stick. He does, however, offer plenty of safety for cash game builds in this price range.

More value golfers to consider: Ian Poulter, Alex Noren, Bubba Watson (GPP), Brian Harman, Jason Kokrak (GPP), Marc Leishman (GPP), Ryan Palmer, Kevin Na, Dylan Frittelli

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Kevin Streelman (DK $6,500) – He’s solid T2G and excels in his approaches, and this might be just the venue for him to sneak in a Top 10 under the radar. Not a sexy pick, but worth a look in all formats.

Cameron Champ (DK $6,400) – Champ occasionally struggles with his putter but the complete game has rounded into better form in the past calendar year. He’s no longer just a bomb-and-gouge player with little to offer outside massive length, and he’ll have no problem tackling the longer holes here.

Lanto Griffin (DK $6,300) – Griffin had a couple of Top 20s heading into the U.S. Open, and while he missed the cut last week, he made seven straight before that. With those concerns off the table, we can safely consider him as a viable punt option with Top 20 upside.

Additional punts: Harry Higgs, Talor Gooch, Tom Hoge, Tyler Duncan

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PGA DFS Picks: U.S. Open at Winged Foot

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the 2020 U.S Open at Winged Foot and helping you find some winning teams!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Major tournament field of 144 Golfers
  • Cut: Top 60 and ties
  • No Brooks Koepka
  • The course: Winged Foot Golf Club (Mamaroneck, NY)
    • Par 70: 7,469 yards – A.W. Tillinghast design (1923)
    • Poa Annua Greens
    • Brutal rough, tight fairways, oppressive length and scary greens – the bloodbath superfecta
    • The course has hosted some memorable U.S. Opens, including “The Massacre” in 1974 (won by Hale Irwin at +7) and Phil Mickelson’s epic collapse in 2006 (I was right on the 18th fairway watching it) where Geoff Ogilvy prevailed with a +5 tournament score
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, Par 4s Gained (450-500), Fairways Gained, Proximity (200+ yards), Bogey Avoidance

Before we get into the picks this week, let’s talk a little about how this is not your typical tournament. Taking into account the season change, the conditions, the unfamiliarity with the course for the majority of field, and the history of U.S. Opens at this storied venue, we could see the winning score in the +5 to +8 range.

That means we don’t necessarily need a slew of birdie makers; the course has only one hole that’s considered a “birdie hole” by the players – the 321-yard Par 4 6th hole. We certainly want talented golfers who can hit fairways, fly in some under-the-wind approaches like D.J., scramble with the best of them and make some putts, but we don’t need to emphasize things like Birdie or Better% and Opportunities Gained.

I think exceedingly poor putters are out, and really awesome putters might be too because it’s nearly impossible to gain a lot of strokes with the flat stick this week given the terrifying green complexes.

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,500) – DJ is the hottest golfer on tour and has the exact set of skills to dominate here. We’ve learned a lot about his mettle the past several weeks and he’s ranked No. 7 overall in my model, with Fairways Gained being the only stat category where he’s outside the Top 10.

Jon Rahm (DK $11,000) – We’ve watched Rahm (who’s No. 3 in my model) wrap up the season with of the best values in the “All-around Ranking” in tour history, and he continues to be a presence on the leaderboard in the toughest tournaments. The possibility of a meltdown scares me a bit, but I do think he’s one of the top three to watch.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,500) – Rory will be in a bunch of my GPPs along with alternating combos of DJ, Morikawa and Webb Simpson, but that approach means I’ll have to roster some punts, which is fine. I’m incredibly excited about the prospect of seeing this man play this course under these conditions, because he could lap the field.

Collin Morikawa (DK $10,000) – The sticker shock could keep some folks off his DFS coattails, and his elite ball-striking could carry him into position on Sunday. He’s going to be tough to fit with some of the other studs, but I’m making it a priority.

Also consider: Justin Thomas (large-field GPP only), Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau (GPP), Webb Simpson

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Daniel Berger (DK $9,200) – Berger actually finishes second in my mixed model (Webb is first), and he’s really been playing well since the reopening, when he notched a win at Colonial, added a T2 and a pair of third place finishes.

Tiger Woods (DK $8,600) – It’s a little crazy that Tiger – who knows how to make pars on tough golf courses and grind out Top 10s – isn’t getting more love this week. His 2006 MC at Winged Foot following the death of his father looms large as a narrative, and I’ll be rooting for him.

Patrick Reed (DK $8,500) – On the other end of the feel-good spectrum, we have Reed,who will undoubtedly call upon the Prince of Darkness to keep him out of the rough and summon another U.S. Open Top 15 finish. I don’t know if he can win, but he can contend.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,000) – Fitzpatrick (No. 10 overall in my mixed model this week) is famous for keeping his ball in play and his elite short game, which he’ll need to save par on some of these tough Par 4s. The wispy Englishman finished second on tour in SG: Putting, and while he’s been inconsistent at times, he seems to show up for majors.

Harris English (DK $7,900) – A shoo-in for Comeback Player of the Year, English is elite when it comes to avoiding bogeys and three-putts, he’s Top 15 in both Prox. 200+ and P4: 450-500, and he’s sixth in my overall model. I’ll be at like 50 percent, and he’s my favorite player looming around $8K.

Matthew Wolff (DK $7,700) – What Wolff lacks in experience he makes up for with talent and a flair for the dramatic. I’ll only be using him in my balanced GPP builds and without high expectations, but I like the price and it’s a tournament where the X-factor could come into play.

Also consider: Tony Finau (GPP), Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton, Paul Casey, Shane Lowry (GPP), Kevin Kisner, Louis Oosthuizen (cash)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Brendan Todd (DK $7,400) – I honestly think Todd could be the best golfer in this price range considering his steady play this past year and his growing confidence at tougher venues. A good bet for a Top 20 and a guy who could surprise on Sunday.

Ian Poulter (DK $7,300) – Poulty finished in the top 10 here in 2006, but my model is unkind to him. I’ll emphasize experience over the data for him, because he’s a survivor – and just the type of golfer I want rounding out some of my GPPs.

Erik Van Rooyen (DK $6,900) – Van Rooyen doesn’t normally get a lot of press, and when he has, he’s disappointed with some less-than-stellar play and some ill-timed MCs. But this might be the spot to roll him out, where his strengths (SG:BS and approaches from 200+ out) will help tremendously.

Chez Reavie (DK $6,800) – I’ve run a few different models emphasizing higher percentages among the stat categories we discussed, and Chez finished among the Top 10 in all of them. He’s a sneaky good player and he won’t be intimidated by the venue or the carnage he sees along the way.

Kevin Streelman (DK $6,700) – Another darling of my models, Streelman’s form has been pedestrian at best lately. But he’s No. 16 overall in my model and I trust his ability to hit fairways, avoid the majority of trouble and post some decent scores.

Mark Hubbard (DK $6,700) – Hubbard is also among the Top 20 in my model this week, and I’ve been impressed by his game in 2020. He’s made the cut in nine of his last ten tournaments and he’s pretty cheap.

More value golfers to consider: Billy Horschel, Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Ryan Palmer, Rasmus Hojgaard, Brandon Wu

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (DK $6,500) – His MC at the PGA will keep the masses from rostering him, but this is talented golfer who could easily finish among the Top 25.

Max Homa (DK $6,400) – Homa gets love from my mixed model (No. 14 overall) with solid ball-striking numbers and excellent ranks in avoiding bogeys and navigating long par 4s. He’ll be in 20-25% of my GPPs.

Joel Dahmen (DK $6,400) – Dahmen has the overall game to finish in the Top 20 and he’s done that a lot in 2020. Plus, he’s just too cheap given his upside.

Additional punts: Mike Lorenzo-Vera (GPP), Lanto Griffin (GPP), Robert Macintyre, Romain Langasque, Andy Sullivan

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PGA DFS Picks: Tour Championship at East Lake

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the PGA Tour’ Championship at East Lake, helping you find some winning teams in GPPs!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Just 30 golfers & no cut
  • Players starting “scores” are determined by their FedExCup positions (-10 thru even par)
  • The course: East Lake Golf Club (Atlanta, GA)
  • Par 70: 7,319 yards – Donald Ross design (renovations have made it tougher over the years)
  • Bermuda Greens
  • Long par 3s and 4s
    • Other Ross courses with correlative success: Sedgefield, Plainfield, Aronimink Golf Club, Oak Hill, Pinehurst #2.
    • Weather expected to have minimal effect this week
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Fairways Gained, Bogey Avoidance, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Par 4s Gained (450-500)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $10,000 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $15,200) – Pricing is crazy this week because of the starting scores, with DJ carrying a two-stroke lead over Rahm. I won’t be using him as much as Rahmbo, JT and Webb, but I’ll have a few shares.

Jon Rahm (DK $12,700) – Rahm and his $2,500 discount from DJ make a good starting point for both cash games and GPPs this week, as he’s coming in strong after a big win over his rival and the helpful starting score should keep him from having any meltdowns. My pick to win.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,000) – It’s a little tough to trust JT after his recent struggles, but the fact that he’s been quiet should make him a better GPP play because of recency bias. He’s got a great record at East Lake and should be in contention Monday unless it all goes bad.

Also consider: Webb Simpson (Cash or GPP), Bryson DeChambeau (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,500 to $9,900):

Daniel Berger (DK $9,100) – I’m not as interested in Rory (status undetermined following the birth of his child) or Hideki, but Berger is playing with a purpose right now and he’s coming in just six shots off the lead with a solid discount.

Xander Schauffele (DK 8,900) – Xander makes for a fine building block in the upper-middle range because of his affinity for the course (runner up last year as the eight seed and winner in 2017) and consistency in scoring at this venue.

Harris English $8,700) – We’ve seen English vault from an also-ran to the Tour Championship behind excellent ball-striking and putting, and that’s what it takes to win here. The glaring lack of weakness in his overall game makes him a solid play at East Lake.

Brendan Todd (DK $7,600) – We’ve seen Todd jump out to early leads at the start of tournaments, so starting a few back shouldn’t have too much of a detrimental effect on him. His game checks all the boxes this week, so if he can make up some ground the first couple days, we could see him with a legitimate chance at winning the Tour Championship.

Also consider: Patrick Reed, Tony Finau

Value PGA DFS (DK $5,500 to 7,400):

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $7,000) – A competitor who plays some of his best golf against difficult fields, Hatton won at the Arnold Palmer on a slightly similar course and ranks well in SG: Approach. He’s a staple of both cash and GPP lineups and his putter usually fares well on Bermuda greens.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $6,300) – The elite ball-striking ability matches up quite well with the other players in this price range, and he’s coming off a solid performance at the BMW. I love him this week.

Abraham Ancer (DK $6,100) – When Ancer is dialed in, he makes for a huge-upside GPP play, which is how I’m be deploying him this week. His iron play can yield big results and help gain strokes against the rest of the field, so he’s a huge bargain at this price.

Mackenzie Hughes (DK $5,200) – The up-and-down sand save on 18 last week got him in this event, and I’ll be happy to roll him out in his maiden Tour Championship voyage. The Canadian is 10 strokes back right now but comes at a huge discount and has Top 10 upside.

Also consider: Kevin Kisner, Viktor Hovland (GPP), Lanto Griffin

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PGA DFS Picks: Northern Trust at TPC Boston

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the PGA Tour’s Northern Trust Open helping you find some winning teams in DraftKings GPPs!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Smaller tournament field of 124 Golfers
  • Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
  • Stacked playoff field
  • The course: TPC Boston
  • Par 71: 7,308 yards – Arnold Palmer design and Gil Hanse/Brad Faxon redesign
  • Penn 4-A Bentgrass Greens (Bentgrass fairways as well)
  • Smaller-than-average greens
    • Favorable weather expected, so no major imbalance in the draw
    • First time Northern Trust is at TPC Boston, so course history should be for Dell Technologies, which has been hosted at this course
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Fairways Gained, Par 4s Gained (450-500), Proximity from 200+ yards, Birdie or Better %, SG: OTT, SG: Putting (Bentgrass)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,100) – Longer hitters tend to fare well here, and Bryson actually notched a victory on this course in 2018 at the Dell Technologies. Without too much penal rough to stymie Bryson if he misses fairways with his accurate blasting approach, Bryson – who may be the best putter among the highest priced players as well – makes for the best high-priced GPP play with winning upside.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,800) – Rory has good course history at TPC Boston, and while he’s playing sub-par golf in comparison to his lofty standards (and the rest of the expensive guys), this should be a comfy place to rebound – as it plays to all his strengths. I may even try to squeeze in a few Rory/Bryson teams with all the capable golfers in the $6,000 to 6,500 range.

Jon Rahm (DK $10,000) – Another top performer with winning upside, Rahm could easily win this thing if he’s firing on all cylinders. Solid ball-striking and a complete short game mean he’s one of my favorite plays in any format.

Also consider: Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Jason Day (DK $9,300) – Day’s ball striking, putting and overall game look like he’s returning to his form from a few years back, and he’s a great play in all formats. A world-class player with a great attitude, he’s bound to be popular – but I just can’t fade him.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,200) – Cantlay’s past few tournaments have been marred by poor putting and usually one bad round thrown into the mix. He chekcs all the boxes, so if he can get the putts to roll in, he makes for a great play in single-entry and large-field GPPs.

Patrick Reed $9,000) – He’s definitely going to be popular, so he fits best in cash games – but there’s definitely enough upside to go all-in with him here since he’s striking the ball pretty well.

Tony Finau (DK $8,800) – Finau’s tee-to-green numbers(10th on tour) are excellent this season, and like Bryson, his tendency to mis fairways shouldn’t burn him too badly here. A solid shot at a Top 10 and plenty of winning upside, and one of the only options I really like in the $8-9K range.

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $8,000) – The missed cut at the PGA could keep his ownership low, but we all know how good this guy is. Normally the Englishman in this price range I’m most intrigued by is Matthew Fitzpatrick, but he might struggle here as a first-timer. Hatton is a better ball striker and he finished T12 in 2018 at his TPC Boston debut. At just $8K, he’s going to be hard for me to avoid.

Matthew Wolff (DK $7.900) – The talent and competitiveness of Wolff make him a plausible GPP play with winning upside, but I’d likely stay away from him in cash games, because it’s his first go-round in Boston.

Cameron Champ (DK $7,600) – A few weeks ago, I wouldn’t have considered Champ, but a closer look at his improved play around the greens makes me take notice.

Also consider: Daniel Berger (Cash) Tiger Woods (GPP), Hideki Matsuyama (GPP), Paul Casey, Rickie Fowler, Sungjae Im, Abraham Ancer, Si Woo Kim, Kevin Kisner, Harris English

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Shane Lowry (DK $7,500) – He feels super risky even with the price drop, but Lowry has the game to finish in the Top 15 or so and continue his playoff dreams. A tough competitor who won’t have to deal with bad weather this week, the Irishman will be among my GPP value plays.

Harold Varner III (DK $7,400) – Varner looks like a much better player every week, and he seems to be getting used to competing against the best. Another guy who is often plagued by one or two bad rounds putting, Varner could be ready to make the jump and stick around for a few playoff weeks.

Doc Redman (DK $7,400) – Redman is rolling lately in the SG: Ball Striking category, and he’s maturing with his short game. There’s clear upside in his game and the mustache seems to be working its magic.

Marc Leishman (DK $7,400) – Leishman plays well in stronger fields and has some recently impressive course history (third place in 2017, T21 in 2018), so he’s a solid GPP wild card.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $7,000) – With more top 10 upside and ball-striking ability than many of the other players in this price range, Niemann is a risky pick but could play well here if his putter doesn’t completely abandon him.

Adam Hadwin (DK $7,200) – Another solid ball-striker, Hadwin will make a few of my Rory/Bryson builds so I can find some value in this $7K range. He’s Canadian, so the switch back to Bentgrass should help.

Bud Cauley (DK $6,600) – Among this group of players who’ve fared poorly in stronger fields or have seen their game evaporate in recent months, Cauley stands out as a confident player who could fare well at this venue.

More value golfers to consider: Matt Kuchar (Cash), Ryan Palmer (Cash), Joel Dahmen, Max Homa (GPP), Emiiano Grillo (GPP) Kevin Na (GPP), Mackenzie Hughes,

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Talor Gooch (DK $6,500) – He’s a birdie maker with some GPP upside, but the competition makes for tougher sledding. Still – he’s one of the safer options in this depressed price range, so he’s a great choice for all kinds of builds.

Sepp Straka (DK $6,300) – Straka is hitting more greens this year and making more birdies. He’s a risky play (and he missed the cut last week) but we’ve seen him step up his game and the switch back to Bentgrass should help his putting.

Additional GPP punts: Rory Sabbatini, Pat Perez, Charley Hoffman, Matt Jones, Matthew NeSmith

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