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Joe Mixon

Week 2 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown Preview: Bengals at Browns

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the Week 2 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please get in the game with a gold account and consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 2 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Joe Burrow (DK $16,200, FD $14,500)

Pivot: Baker Mayfield (DK $15,300, FD $15,000)

Contrarian #1: Joe Mixon (DK $12,900, FD $13,000)

Contrarian #2: Tyler Boyd (DK $10,500, FD $10,000)

Contrarian #3: Nick Chubb (DK $11,400, FD $13,500)

This is a pretty straight-forward Showdown slate, and I’m leaning toward using Joe Burrow as my MVP based on his ability to score on the ground or via the air with both his WRs and RBs.

I think the most ownership will end up with Burrow as the top guy, though I understand the contrarian pivot to Mayfield or a guy like Joe Mixon – the player likely to have the most touches in this game.

Both defenses are pretty banged up, and while the total is just 43.5, I’m expecting a higher-scoring game. If you have to play a defense in the top spot, make it the Browns (because of their pass rush) and fill in the rest of your lineups accordingly based on that narrative.

I’d steer clear of using a kicker in the MVP slot in this game because we probably don’t need to go there.

Week 2 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Use Joe Burrow as your MVP with no Bengals position players and the Browns DST.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Use players with almost no shot of seeing the field, regardless of their salary.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Joe Burrow
Joe Mixon
Nick Chubb
Tyler Boyd
A.J. Green
Odell Beckham, Jr.
Baker Mayfield
Jarvis Landry (questionable, hip)
Austin Hooper
Kareem Hunt
C.J. Uzomah
Reggie Bullock
Cody Parkey (make sure he’s starting)
Browns D
Giovani Bernard
Bengals D
John Ross III
Rashard Higgins
Auden Tate
Harrison Bryant

5 years ago 0 comments

Week 17 DFS RB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got your NFL Week 17 DFSplays – the best RBs to use in the main slate, as well as some contrarian picksto help you win big!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info,24/7 expert chats and more!

Week 17 DFS Running Back – Cash Game Plays

Christian McCaffrey, CAR vs. NO

DK ($10,000) FD ($11,000)

McCaffrey is the best fantasy RB in the game and has a chance to finish with over 1,000 yards this season for both rushing and receiving. He is only 67 yards short on the receiving end, so expect the Panthers to let him rack up the receptions and eclipse that mark. In a week with plenty of uncertainty, Panthers’ interim coach Perry Fewell has already stated he has no plans to pull CMC early in Week 17.

Ezekiel Elliott, DAL vs.WAS

DK ($8,000) FD ($8,700)

Zeke should be involved in the Cowboys offense early andoften, and while his workload and productionthis year haven’t been up to his usual standards, he’s still running theball well when given the chance. Just last week against a tough run defense,he had 20 touches and played on 97 percent of the snaps, rushing for 84 yards.Now he gets the lackluster Washington run defense (ranked 28^th inthe NFL) in a game the Cowboys should win. He’s one of the top cash game plays forWeek 17.

Also consider:Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb

Week 17 DFS Running Back – GPP Plays

MarlonMack, IND at JAC

DK ($6,900) FD ($7,300)

The Colts wrap up the season against the Jaguars, who have given up 5.14 yards per carry this season and more than 30 fantasy points a game to opposing runners – the second most in the NFL on both counts. This Jags defense allowed Mack to gash them for 109 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries in Week 11, and Mack’s 7.8 yards per attempt during that game ranks as the RB’s highest since Week 6 of 2017. He’s a great GPP play on a team that hasn’t been throwing it too well.

Sony Michel, NE vs. MIA

DK ($4,900) FD ($6,500)

Michel should tear this Miami run defense to shreds, andhis price is obscenely low on DK. He’s a viable GPP play on both sits, however,and should have pretty low ownership on FD where he’s priced between PhillipLindsay and Damien Williams. I think his upside is a little higher than both thosecapable backs, even with the crowded backfield in New England, because he couldeasily rush for two or three TDs. We’ve been burned by him before, but if youcan stand a little risk, this feels like a big Michel week.

Also consider: Derrick Henry, Phillip Lindsay

Week 17 DFS Running Back – Contrarian GPP Plays

Saquon Barkley, NYG vs. PHI

DK ($8,700) FD ($9,300)

Barkley doesn’t have the best matchup on paper, but the Giants are using him an awful lot lately and he’s shown explosiveness that’s been missing for most of 2019, averaging 40.1 DraftKings points over his past two games. The volume is there, and the price is still affordable. I’m in love with Barkley as a low-owned contrarian play in a week that might have the DFS masses looking elsewhere.

Kenyan Drake, ARI at LAR

DK ($7,100) FD (7,300)

Drake is coming off another monster game where he carried the ball 24 times for 166 yards and two TDs, adding 3-18-0 receiving in a stunning win over the Seahawks. He now looks to cap off an unexpectedly productive season in a Week 17 road game against the Rams. It’s not a great spot, but we’ve seen Drake rise to the occasion in a tough matchup before, and there’s a lot of free agency money at stake for him.

Also consider: Austin Ekeler, Devonta Freeman

Week 17 DFS Running Back – Value/Punt Plays

Damien Williams, KCvs. LAC

DK ($4,700) FD ($6,400)

Williams was the workhorse last week for the Chiefs and hegets a favorable home matchup against a faltering division rival. The Chargersallow 110.3 rushing yards per game, making Williams a high-upside play in aleading role.

Chris Thompson, WAS at DAL

DK ($3,900) FD ($5,100)

Thompson got some involvement in the running game lastweek, carrying the ball eight times for 34 yards to go along with his usualpassing game role (4-18-0 on four targets). His skill set fits in nicely for thismatchup with the Cowboys, and we could see him get a lot more targets his wayin what should be a negative game script. The price is right on DK, but I’llstay away on FD.

Additional plays: Mike Boone, Kareem Hunt, Kerryon Johnson

Monkey Knife Fight DFS Picks of the Week

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Goal: 47.5, Prize: 2x

I am looking at three RBs from this game to meet this modest total of 47.5 to pay 2x, including Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, and Kareem Hunt. If you are skittish about playing three RBs from this game, feel free to mix in a WR for Chubb or Hunt, but I really like the volume of all these backs here.

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 16 DFS RB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got your NFL Week 16 DFS plays – the best RBs to use in the main slate, as well as some contrarian picks to win your GPPs!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info,24/7 expert chats and more!

Week 16 DFS RunningBack – Cash Game Plays

Christian McCaffrey, CAR atIND

DK ($10,100) FD ($10,800)

McCaffrey resumes top dog cash game play of the week after a minorbobble of the crown in weeks 13 and 14. He posted his fourth-highest pointstotal of the season in Week 15 and is once again in a smash spot against astruggling Indy defense.

Chris Carson, SEA vs. ARI

DK ($8,500) FD ($8,200)

Carson doesn’t have much competition for touches anymoreand remains a fire-breathing, yard-churning monster the Seattle backfield. Thematchup here checks all the boxes for favorable, including opponent, probable gamescript and home field, He had 133 rushing yards and two scores in Week 15, andthere’s nothing to prevent him form a similar stat line facing the Cards rundefense.

Also consider:Joe Mixon, Devonta Freeman

Week 16 DFS RunningBack – GPP Plays

Mark Ingram, BAL at CLE

DK ($6,800) FD ($7,600)

I expect the Ravens to avenge the loss the Browns handed them earlier this season with heavy doses of Mark Ingram, who only had 12 cries and one catch in Week 4. Ingram cost $6,600 then and sputtered to just 9.1 DK points, but I’m expecting production twice that this week, as he should handle a few more red-zone touches and be part of the formula to put the game out of reach, The Browns defense is also pretty beat up.

Saquon Barkley, NYG at WAS

DK ($8,300) FD ($8,800)

Barkley’s price has come up, but it’s not outrageous yet – and Washingtonhasn’t had the pleasure of trying to stop Mr. Barkley yet this season. TheGiants were committed to getting him the ball in Week 15, and he responded with112 rushing yards and two scores (to go along with 5-31-0 receiving) and we canexpect positive results again this week. He’s fine for cash or GPP.

Also consider: Marlon Mack, Leonard Fournette, Alvin Kamara

Week 16 DFS RunningBack – Contrarian GPP Plays

Ezekiel Elliott, DAL at PHI

DK ($7,900) FD ($8,700)

Elliott gashed the Eagles defense for 111 rushing yards and a score in Week 7 and now faces them in a game that likely decides who wins the NFC East and sends the winner to the playoffs. Although the Eagles defense is usually more vulnerable to the passing game, even Jason Garrett can’t screw this up by eliminating the Zeke factor. It’s not a perfect spot for Zeke, but that’s usually when he surprises you with a monster game by catching a few extra passes and mixing in some big plays.

Austin Ekeler, LAC vs. OAK

DK ($6,100) FD (6,800)

Once again, we have a week where nobody is talking about Austin Ekeler, despite a favorable matchup against a division rival that could keep the game close. Last week, Ekeler still managed 10 fantasy points despite low usage and I’m betting he can thump the Raiders with a couple of game-breaking runs or catches. Ekeler’s Kamara-light skillset gives you a huge discount and about the same upside.

Also consider: Aaron Jones, Kenyan Drake

Week 16 DFS RunningBack – Value/Punt Plays

Melvin Gordon, LAC vs. OAK

DK ($5,600) FD ($7,000)

If it’s not Ekeler, it’ll be Gordon, who’s actually cheaper on DraftKings because of the PPR factor. Melvin stands to get a few extra goal-line/red zone carries this week and the Chargers, in general, should be in a good spot to score a few extra points facing a battered Raiders defensive unit. I’m less interested in FanDuel but his price on DK is a bargain.

Kerryon Johnson, DET at DEN

DK ($4,900) FD ($4,500)

Johnson just got activated, so this isn’t aplay for the faint of heart. But the Lions RB has been practicing the past fewweeks and hasn’t experienced any setbacks, and he regularly occupied the 10-20 fantasypoint range when he was healthy. You’re getting low ownership and a solid price(minimum on FD) on a back who could be in for a workhorse role in Week 16.

Additional plays: Phillip Lindsay, Patrick Laird, Dion Lewis (if Derrick Henry sits)

Monkey Knife Fight DFS Picks of the Week

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Goal 48.5, Prize: 2x

This game should feature plenty of offense and both RBs should be in your MKF bets for this one, so pair Joe Mixon and Patrick Laird with DeVante Parker.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 14 DFS RB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

Edwin Porras 5 years ago

written by Edwin Porras

We’ve got your NFL Week 14 DFSplays – the best RBs to use in the main slate, as well as some contrarian picksto win you some major green in huge GPPs!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expertchats and more!

Week 14 DFS RunningBack – Cash Game Plays

Christian McCaffrey, CAR at ATL

DK ($10,300) FD ($11,000)

McCaffrey is coming off his lowest-scoring performance since Week 2, and only the second game since then that he didn’t score a TD. But CMC should have plenty of opportunities to remedy when he visits the Falcons in Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday. Treat last week as an anomaly and take advantage of the $200 price drop on DK!

Dalvin Cook, MIN vs. DET

DK ($9,500) FD ($8,700)

Cook normally doesn’thave the upside of CMC, but he’s in a great spot versus the Lions, who rank amongthe worst three defenses in the league against RBs. Cook left the Week 13 lossto the Seahawks on Monday night a little early after injuring his chest, but he’snot on the injury report and there’s no indication he’ll be limited Sunday. He’sgot a 10-point floor and 30-point upside and offers a somewhat cheaper optionthan the top dog.

Derrick Henry, TEN at OAK

DK ($8,200) FD ($8,600)

Henryhas been a godsend for DFS players over the past few weeks, and he’s seeking anotherproductive performance against a Raiders defense that’s yielded 134.8 yardsfrom scrimmage per game and 13 touchdowns to running backs so far this season.

Also consider:Devonta Freeman (value cash play)

Week 14 DFS RunningBack – GPP Plays

Aaron Jones, GB vs. WAS

DK ($6,700) FD ($7,800)

Jones dealt with some ankle pain last week but this home matchup againstthe Redskins is about as favorable as you can get. The Packers have an impliedtotal over 27 points, and while we should still see Jamaal Williams (knee) getsome work, both backs offer upside in this smash spot.

Leonard Fournette, JAC vs.LAC

DK ($7,400) FD ($7,500)

Fournette is a lock for 20+ touches this week at home against the Chargers, and he’s seen 23 targets over the past two weeks operating as a workhorse back in all aspects on the Jags offense. His floor remains round 10-12 points and he’s got a 30-point upside.

Nick Chubb,CLE vs. CIN

DK ($8,000) FD ($7,900)

Chubb isn’t cheap, but I could see him matching his production fromthe Miami game a couple of weeks ago, when he rolled for 106 yards and a TD,adding 3-58-0 receiving. The additional of Kareem Hunt has hurt his week-to-weekconsistency, but Chubb is in a positive game script here and the Bengals cannotstop him.

Also consider: Joe Mixon, JamesWhite

Week 14 DFS RunningBack – Contrarian GPP Plays

Alvin Kamara, NO vs. SF

DK ($7,000) FD ($7,600)

Kamara has a tough matchup vs. the 49ers on Sunday, but the game is in New Orleans on the turf and this could be a higher-scoring game than the 44.5 game total. The Saints have a 23.5 implied total, and a lot of that should be the fruits of Kamara’s and Michael Thomas’ labor. A contrarian GPP plays for those of you who think the Saints could hand the 49ers their third loss in Week 14.

Austin Ekeler, LAC at DEN

DK ($6,300) FD ($7,000)

Even with Melvin Gordon getting regular carries, Ekeler has scoredfour receiving TDs over his last six games. He’s got plenty of big plays in himdue to his speed and elusiveness, and I’m committed to using him in GPPs as acontrarian play once again in Week 14.

Also consider: Todd Gurley,Devin Singletary, Mark Ingram

Week 14 DFS RunningBack – Value/Punt Plays

LeSean McCoy, KC at NE

DK ($4,400) FD ($6,100)

McCoy will get the start on Sunday against the Patriots and while it’s not a great matchup, he should see enough involvement to pay off his dirt-cheap price at $4,400 on DK. I’m less interested in FanDuel, where he’s over $6K.

Alexander Mattison, MIN vs.DET

DK ($4,500) FD ($5,100)

It’s not often you can recommend two RBs in the same offense, but theLions defense has been so bad vs. RBS that it could be warranted. Mattison’s presencelimits Cook’s GPP upside a little bit, and we could easily see 10-15 touchesfor the backup RB in a positive game script at home this week.

Additional plays: Phillip Lindsay, Melvin Gordon, Bilal Powell (if Bell out), Darwin Thompson

Monkey Knife Fight Quarterback Pick of the Day

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Goal: 67.5, Prize: 3x

Christian McCaffrey, Devonta Freeman and D.J. Moore are in great spots to bust out for huge fantasy days this week (especially with Greg Olsen out for Carolina), so go big or go home with this 3x bet!

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 13 DFS RB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got your NFL Week 13 DFSplays – the best RBs to use in the main slate, as well as some contrarian picksto win you some major green in huge GPPs!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expertchats and more!

Week 13 DFS RunningBack – Cash Game Plays

Christian McCaffrey, CAR vs. WAS

DK ($10,500) FD ($11,000)

McCaffrey scored another 30+ DK points last week and while the price came up on FD to $11K, he’s still affordable on both sites. At some point, you’d think the heavy volume would diminish, but it doesn’t. He’s a fine play at home versus Washington in Week 13.

Saquon Barkley, NYG vs. GB

DK ($7,400) FD ($7,600)

Barkley should be a featured weapon Sunday against the Packers (ina game that will be played in rainy weather) and should get a boatload ofcarriers and usage – the red zone included. Green Bay struggled to defend therun and while he’s far from the fantasy ceiling and floor of McCaffrey, he’s oneof the best cash game options we have, especially at the reduced price on FD.

Aaron Jones,GB at NYG

DK ($6,800) FD ($8,000)

Jones makes sense as a bargain cash gameplay on DK and has an excellent matchup in what should be a positive game script against the Giants. The weather could force the Packers to run the ball a lot more. I wouldn’t play both Barkley and Jones together, but both should get plenty of opportunities to produce.

Also consider:Le’Veon Bell, Jonathan Williams

Week 13 DFS RunningBack – GPP Plays

Josh Jacobs, OAK at KC

DK ($6,900) FD ($7,700)

The shoulder injury has kept him limited again this week, but he’sstill a GPP option facing the league’s worst defense against RBs. No need to overthinkthis – if he’s active and not seriously limited, he’s worth using in GPPs.

Derrick Henry, TEN at IND

DK ($7,600) FD ($8,600)

We’ll keep an eye on news about Henry (hamstring) over theweekend, but the questionable tag shouldn’t diminish our enthusiasm for him inGPPs – especially because he doesn’t have much competition for carries in theTitans offense. He’s got 347 rushing yards and four TDs over his last twogames.

Miles Sanders, PHI at MIA

DK ($5,400) FD ($5,800)

Jordan Howard could be back this week, but Miles Sanders stillmakes sense in GPPs. His speed and usage in all aspects of the Eagles offensecould see him flourish against a poor Miami defense. I wouldn’t recommend him incash games unless Howard is inactive, but he’s going to make many of my GPPbuilds regardless.

Also consider: Todd Gurley,Phillip Lindsay, Joe Mixon, Ronald Jones

Week 13 DFS RunningBack – Contrarian GPP Plays

Leonard Fournette, JAC vs.TB

DK ($7,300) FD($7,000)

It’s not a great matchup, but I’m also not convinced the Jags areready to get away from their current offensive style with Nick Foles undercenter. I expect them to try to grind out a win vs. the Bucs and do so with alot of shorter passes and plenty of involvement from Fournette.

Austin Ekeler, LAC at DEN

DK ($5,700) FD ($6,700)

Melvin Gordon has typically struggled against the Broncos, so wecould see a few more touches and targets for Ekeler in Week 13. He’s a muchbetter play on DK with the full-point PPR, and the upside is still there becauseof his big-play capability.

Also consider: Nick Chubb, MarkIngram, Tevin Coleman

Week 13 DFS RunningBack – Value/Punt Plays

LeSean McCoy, KC vs. OAK

DK ($4,800) FD ($5,800)

McCoy and Darrell Williams will shoulder the load for the Chiefswith Damien Williams looking unlikely to suit up this week. I like McCoy alittle better, but Darrel Dubs is seven cheaper at $4,400 on DK.

Derrius Guice, WAS at CAR

DK ($4,500) FD($5,400)

Guice has a favorable matchup vs. the Panthers (ranked 30th againstRBs), and he should probably receive more touches than Adrian Peterson. Ownershipin GPPs should be down and we could see a breakthrough performance for theembattled young back this week.

Additional plays: Darrel Williams, Jalen Richard (if Jacobs is out or limited)

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

Click Here to Play and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

Goal: 56.5, Prize: 2x

Let’s go with both RBs and a WR for this matchup in the rain. Both Saquon Barkley and Aaron Jones should see increased volume and Davante Adams if healthy) can round out our choices.

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 12 DFS RB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got your NFL Week 12 DFS plays – the best RBs to use in the main slate, as well as some contrarian picks to win you some major green in huge GPPs!

Sign up NOWfor WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chatsand more!

Week 12 DFS Running Back – Cash Game Plays

ChristianMcCaffrey, CAR at NO

DK ($10,500) FD ($10,500)

With at least 23 DK points in four straight games and averaging a massive 32.4 DK PPG, CMC is again top dog in all formats. I’m not going to bore you anymore with his resume at this point, and while the matchup is difficult compared to others he’s faced, it doesn’t freak me out enough to avoid him. Just lock the guy in and move on.

Nick Chubb, CLE vs. MIA

DK ($8,100) FD ($8,200)

If you can’t fit in McCaffrey in your cash lineups, thenshame on you. No, really, Chubb has some competition for touches now, but he’sanother back facing a poor opponent who could clean up this week and make his fantasyowners very happy. He’s hasn’t scored since Week 6, so he’s due.

Week 12 DFS Running Back – GPP Plays

Alvin Kamara, NO vs. CAR

DK ($8,200) FD ($8,300)

We nailed Kamara last week, and he was under 10 percent owned in large-field GPPs (9.58% in the DK Millionaire Maker). I’m smitten with how Kamara fits into the Saints offense and can break off enormous plays as opponents get distracted by the plodding style of Latavius Murray, the pass-catching ability of Michael Thomas and the multiple speed options (Ted Ginn, Taysom Hill) who complement Kamara’s soaring talent. He’s probably cash viable but is best deployed in GPPs.

Josh Jacobs, OAK at NYJ

DK ($7,400) FD ($8,000)

Jacobs is again nursing the same shoulder injury, but he’sa GPP darling this season, getting lots of work in all aspects of the Raiders’offense. Last week an underwhelming fantasy total, but he’s a better bet toreach paydirt in Week 12 and score 15-25 DK points.

Derrick Henry, TEN vs. JAC

DK ($6,900) FD ($8,400)

The Titans would like to win this division rivalry without throwing the ball a lot, as they grabbed a win over the Chiefs last week with Ryan Tannehill attempting fewer than 20 passes. Henry has a massive upside in this matchup and is one of the strongest runners in the game.

Leonard Fournette, JAC at TEN

DK ($7,300) FD ($7,000)

The other side of the Titans-Jags game features Fournette, who last week was a bit of a disappointment. For Week 12, Fournette’s price is down on both sites and he’s almost a bargain on FD. He’s not a high-profile name and he could go under-owned in GPPs after drawing just 4-5 percent ownership last week.

Joe Mixon, CIN vs. PIT

DK ($5,900) FD ($6,700)

The Bengals are bad, but Mixon has 200 rushing yards and 45 carries over his last two games. He’s the focal point of this offense and the Steelers are a team in turmoil, so I’ll be locking this bell-cow into about 20-25 percent of my GPPs and hopefully staying ahead of the field.

Also consider: Le’Veon Bell, Jaylen Samuels, James White, David Montgomery

Week 12 DFS Running Back – Contrarian GPP Plays

Ezekiel Elliot, DAL at NE

DK ($7,500) FD ($8,100)

This could get interesting. Ezekiel’s ownership was at 14.06% in the Millionaire Maker last week, and he reached 20 DK points, but this week against a much tougher opponent (the Patriots allow the fewest points to fantasy RBs), that ownership level should plummet, even though he still has plenty of upsides and the price has come way down. He could be a sneaky play in GPPs.

Devin Singletary, BUF vs. DEN

DK ($5,400) FD ($6,300)

The Bills’continued reliance on Frank Gore (11 rushing attempts last game) keepsSingletary from getting the 20 attempts he’ll likely need to break through intoGPP stardom, but the Broncos are average against the run and Singletary is atalented back with upside – and probably some relatively low ownership this week.

Also consider: Saquon Barkley, Chris Carson, Phillip Lindsay

Week 12 DFS Running Back – Value/Punt Plays

Miles Sanders, PHI vs. SEA

DK ($5,000) FD ($5,600)

Sanders is a talented back and Jordan Howard hasn’t yet beencleared for contact. With the rookie getting the bulk of work out of the Phillybackfield and having such enormous upside based on his speed and shiftiness, I’lltake the chance against the Seahawks in some GPPs.

Sony Michel, NE vs. DAL

DK ($4,900) FD ($6,300)

Michel is still just too cheap on DK and had 10 carries and four targets last week. I expect the Patriots to use him a little more this week against the Cowboys – who are more susceptible to straight-line power runners – making him a fine value play in Week 12.

Tarik Cohen, CHI vs. NYG

DK ($4,800) FD ($5,700)

Cohen saw an uptick in usage last week and could get more workin Week 12. He’s scored receiving TDs in two straight and could make it a thirdagainst this dubious Giants defensive unit.

Derrius Guice, WAS vs. DET

DK ($4,700) FD ($5,400)

Guice has an excellent matchup and big-play upside, so he’son my list for Week 12 GPP value plays. This team is still committed to giving AdrianPeterson touches, but Guice is cheaper and probably the better back.

Kalen Ballage, MIA at CLE

DK ($4,400) FD ($5,500)

Ballage remains cheap, but his upside is limited,especially against an improving Browns defensive unit. But with Mark Waltondone with football for the foreseeable future, the volume could mean viability onDK.

Additional plays: Ronald Jones, J.D. McKissic, Latavius Murray

Monkey Knife Fight Picks of the Week

Goal: 78.5, Prize: 3x

Christian McCaffrey, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara are my picks (two RBs and a WR) for notching the most fantasy points in this Week 12 matchup. Let’s go big for 3x since they all catch passes, they can all score multiple TDs and go over 150 total yards and offer monster upside.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Week Four MNF Showdown Guide and Podcast

Daniel Wehr 6 years ago

written by Daniel Wehr

This report will provide plays for the NFL DFS Monday Night Football slate. I will break down the top fantasy players to consider.

PODCAST: The King and Dan Wehr break down Bengals-Steelers from DFS Perspectives

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

O/U: 44.5 (PIT -3.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals will travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers in an AFC North tilt that will determine the sole bottom feeder of the division. Both teams have been horrendous on defense through their first three games. The Bengals defense has struggled against the run, allowing over 168 yards per game, only second worst to the Miami Dolphins. The Steelers aren’t far behind, allowing runners to average 139 yards on the ground. I try be fair when weighing these averages early in the season, but Pittsburgh is allowing starting running backs over five yards per carry.

Pittsburgh has also struggled with pass defense. They allow an average of over 300 yards through the air. Only Tampa Bay and Philadelphia allow more than the Steelers. Despite Pittsburgh’s woes on defense, they still have a turnover margin of +3, which is sixth best in the league (four of those takeaways come from SF). Cincy hasn’t been quite as bad defending in terms of yards per game (237) but still have allowed six TD’s in the red zone through the air.

Given both teams struggles I expect the Steelers to emphasize establishing the run game with James Conner. Pittsburgh is top five in terms of pass protection per their 2.5% adjusted sack rate. If they are able to get things going with Conner (which they should) I can see this opening things up for Mason Rudolph in the pass with good matchups for JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, and new TE addition Nick Vannett. Likewise for the Bengals, who have struggled immensely on the ground. They are averaging only 2.50 yards per carry and will look to Joe Mixon to get things going in order to open up more opportunities in the passing game.

NFL DFS: DraftKings Approach

NFL DFS Captain:

James Conner ($15,900), Joe Mixon ($13,200), Tyler Boyd ($13,800), and JuJu Smith-Schuster ($15,600).

NFL DFS Flex:

James Conner ($10,600), Joe Mixon ($8,800), Tyler Boyd ($9,200), JuJu Smith-Schuster (10,400), Andy Dalton ($9,800), Mason Rudolph ($9,600), Diontae Johnson ($6,600), Nick Vannett ($4,200), Tyler Eifert ($5,200), Pittsburgh DST ($4,600)

My favorite approach on DraftKings is Joe Mixon at the Captain spot and pairing him up with Andy Dalton in the flex.

NFL DFS: FanDuel Approach

NFL DFS MVP:

Andy Dalton ($15,000), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($13,500) James Conner ($12,000), Joe Mixon ($12,500), and Tyler Boyd ($13,000).

NFL DFS Flex:

(All plays at MVP can be used in flex) Diontae Johnson ($8,500), Nick Vannett ($6,500), James Washington ($6,500), Tyler Eifert ($7500), Chris Boswell ($10,000).

My favorite approach on FanDuel is running Andy Dalton in the MVP spot and pairing him up with Tyler Boyd in the flex.

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6 years ago 0 comments

NFL

DFS: Two-Minute Drill Injury Analysis

Edwin Porras 6 years ago

written by Edwin Porras

Week Two is just hours away, so it’s time to go no-huddle and optimize your DFS lineups with the Two-Minute Drill Injury Analysis. Let’s get into it.

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Joe Mixon– Ankle- Questionable

We’ll start off the two minute drill with some bad news: The walking news headline Adam Schefter reported (either late last night or early this morning) that Mixon plans to play. The problem? In reference to his ankle, Mixon wants to “test it out” before making a final decision to play or not. So, even though he draws a questionable tag, this is more of game time decision. Not what you want to hear just hours before kick off. Find a better option. (Take a look at his gnarly injury here)

Mark Ingram– Shoulder– Questionable

Next on the list is Mark Ingram, who also draws a questionable, but his situation was not worrisome from the beginning. If the questionable tag scares others in your pool away, slide him into a lineup or two this morning as I’m not concerned about his shoulder and this is another great spot for him. Moving on to the Steelers.

James Conner– Illness- No Designation

The third player on my radar is James Conner. This is just a reminder that he’s a solid mid-salary option this week as his illness is in the rear view mirror. It’s always nice to have good news in the two-minute drill, isn’t it? Now, let’s move on to pass catchers.

Mike Williams- Knee- Questionable

Unfortunately, this next guy is bad news. Williams’ injury continues to be shrouded in mystery and to be quite honest, seems serious. He’s a game time decision with a questionable tag, so I’m avoiding him today despite Adam Schefter reporting he’ll be used in the red zone today. Speaking of big bodied targets, next up on the list is a tight end.

Mark Andrews- Foot- Questionable

It was unexpected when Andrews didn’t practice on Friday. However, considering that the Ravens are confident he’ll play and the fact that his teammate Mark Ingram is also questionable, I’m okay with rolling Andrews out there today. Now, let’s move on to his teammate.

Marquise Brown- Hip- Questionable

By nature, I am very conservative when it comes to player injuries. That’s why I view Hollywood Brown this week as a cautious dart throw in tournaments. I consider him a yellow-light as he was only on the field in week one for 12 snaps. Add in that he missed most of the preseason, continues to be questionable, and the Ravens’ plethora of offensive weapons and you get a yellow light.

Le’Veon Bell-Shoulder-Questionable

Last but not least, let’s talk Bell, who plays on Monday night. Although there are yellow flags surrounding his shoulder, what other offensive options do the Jets have with Darnold out? Start him as a volume play in the show-down slates as the injury might make him slightly less chalk.

That wraps up the week two version of the two-minute injury drill. Good luck this week!

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6 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Week Two Injuries and DFS Outlooks

Richard Masana 6 years ago

written by Richard Masana

What a difference one week makes. Just last Friday I was thinking to myself that I had so much time to dive headfirst into the few injuries that were being reported. Now that it’s Week Two and games have been played, the injuries are stacking up. Here are the most notable Week Two Injuries with in-depth analysis.

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Julio Jones

No longer on the injury report. Giddy up for a Week Two bounce back against the Eagles’ “defense.”

JuJu Smith-Schuster

The same goes for JuJu as he was upgraded to a full practice participant on Friday. Giddy-up as well.

Tyler Lockett

No longer listed on the injury report, the pride of Wildcat land is a sneaky play against a Steelers defense that was just shredded by Josh Gordon, Julian Edelman, and even Phillip Dorsett. Add in the fact that the Seahawks are road dogs and you get yet another horse reference: giddy up.

Mike Williams

The opposite is true here for Williams. As of Friday, Williams had drawn a questionable tag and has been limited all week by a mystery knee injury. Considering that the Chargers’ skill players are going down faster than chicken wings on Super Bowl Sunday, part of me believes that pressure from the coaching staff (and probably Williams’ own internal pressure) is pushing him to play this Sunday. I’m avoiding Williams and living with the result because all signs point to red flags for him in DFS.

Marquise Brown

Brown is still on the injury report as he was last week. The reason I’m concerned about putting him into lineups is that even though he blew up last week while playing through an injury designation, he was still limited in snaps. Let’s also acknowledge the fact that the Dolphins are undoubtedly the worst team in the league. With all that said, if he has another giant performance, it will be in spite of injury concerns.

Sterling Shepard

There’t not much to say here other than concussions are volatile and despite players’ progress in concussion protocol, their availability is never a lock. He’s been ruled out.

Now, on to running backs, as there are a couple of guys who are risky plays this week.

Joe Mixon

I said all week that I was unsure if Mixon would suit up on Sunday, but all signs point to him being on the field as he practiced on Friday with no setbacks (as of now). It’s worth noting that when players come off injuries like Mixon’s, availability and production are not guaranteed to be correlated. If his lateral mobility and ankle stability isn’t quite where it needs to be, he might struggle or worse, re-injure himself. Unfortunately, re-injury to lateral ankle sprains are very common. Mixon is another player I’m willing to leave out of my lineups. Even if he balls out this week, from an injury perspective the conservative move is to avoid him.

Le’Veon Bell

Bell’s situation is extremely odd as “precautionary” MRIs are virtually unheard of in the medical community. It’s also worth noting that despite the MRI being “clear” imaging and pain reports are terribly correlated. That means that Bell can still be in a significant amount of pain while playing on Sunday, which would mainly limit him in the passing game. Additionally, he was limited in practice on Friday, but planned to practice Saturday. With all of that said, Darnold is out and the offense will likely have no choice but to run through Bell, so he’s a volume play for me this week. Even though it makes me slightly nervous, he’s nowhere near the Joe Mixon level of concern for me.

James Conner

Conner was a full participant in practice Friday and is seemingly recovered from an illness. If you’re in a pool with people who have been scared off, slide him as the Steelers are home favorites against a post-Legion-of-Boom defense that was just shredded by Andy Dalton.

Everybody else

Whoa there! (I hope you picked up on the horse narrative) A reminder that Jordan Reed, Hunter Henry, Derrius Guice and Tyreek Hill have all been ruled OUT.

There are your Week Two Injuries (with a few horse references). Make sure you check in with us on Sunday morning for another quick hit injury report. Good luck setting those lineups!

6 years ago 0 comments

NFL

DFS: Week Two Injury Report

6 years ago

written by

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I can only assume that you walked away a winner from Week One by listening to our podcasts, reading our strategy pieces, and staying up to date on our injury report. So, congratulations! If you didn’t, don’t be concerned, as your time is coming. Now, let’s discuss the Week Two injury report.

Mike Evans

Evans battled a stomach bug all last week, and it showed on the field. The weather was hot and humid while Evans struggled to stay hydrated and explosive. On top of that, Jameis Winston didn’t have the best showing (to put it nicely). With all of that said, I expect Evans to bounce back.

Julio Jones

Jones and the injury report go together like a fine wine and perfectly aged cheese. I say that because ultimately, he usually performs extremely well despite any designations and concerns. The issue this week is that it’s an unfamiliar injury with his wrist, which can compromise his ability to catch the ball. I’m watching the report all week on this one before throwing him into lineups.

Tyler Lockett

Ah, Tyler Lockett, the pride of Kansas State, my Alma Mater. I still smile when I remember watching Lockett in person as he returned punts for touchdowns that glorious 2012 season. I digress, Lockett showed up on the injury report on Wednesday after being presumed completely healthy following the Week One victory over the Bengals. Watch Lockett’s status on Thursday and Friday for a better picture. I’m hoping this turns into a minor issue and scares most away from one of the most efficient receivers.

Joe Mixon

I tweeted a picture and a short blurb about Mixon’s injury here. He had a classic lateral ankle sprain mechanism of injury as he was forced down by two defenders. The good news is that this is a manageable injury that responds very well to active rest and rehab. Unfortunately, it can take a couple of weeks to get back to 100%. He also mentioned on Wednesday that his intention is to play on Sunday. Regardless, I’m fading him in DFS unless we hear he is back to full speed by Friday (which I do not expect)

Update: Mixon was limited at practice on Thursday and continues to be day to day.

Mike Williams

This is an interesting case as I went back to watch the play that he was injured on, and nothing jumped out at me. I have a few theories in mind that aren’t worth mentioning specifically, but what matters is that on Wednesday coach Anthony Lynn said that he was “concerned” for Williams’ knee. How concerned? Well, the Chargers signed another depth receiver on Wednesday in light of Williams’ injury.

Update: There continues to be a sense of mystery behind this injury and I would not play Williams even if he is active. He missed practice on Thursday.

JuJu Smith-Schuster

JuJu is another interesting case to me. I’m going to assume that the medical staff knows something we don’t, as it was reported that he suffered a toe injury, but only X-rays were conducted. You see, X-rays are only used to rule out bone and joint injuries (fractures, dislocations, etc). That means if JuJu has “turf toe” (a sprain of the first toe) an X-ray would not catch it. To make matters worse, he was limited in practice on Wednesday. Keep your eyes peeled this week for JuJu’s injury status.

*It’s worth noting here that JuJu’s teammate, James Conner, was ill on Wednesday.

Update: The teammates are both expected to play on Sunday.

Baker Mayfield

The Titans pressured Mayfield all game long and at one point, sacked him for a safety. Mayfield stood up holding his wrist and simply looked uncomfortable the rest of the game. His X-rays are negative, but again, if it isn’t a bone or joint injury, we could be missing something. Add in the Jets’ (surprisingly) decent defense, and I might avoid Baker in DFS this week. He’s another guy to watch for as the week progresses.

Greg Olsen

At 34 years of age, Olsen is still trotting out there on Sundays despite his body starting to wear down. He’s been dealing with a back injury this week, and did not practice on Wednesday ahead of their TNF game against Tampa Bay. The flip side of these warning signs is that the veteran doesn’t need a walk-through practice and he told reporters on Wednesday that he’ll be ready to go. If he’s out, Ian Thomas is an extremely valuable option at tight end for showdown plays.

Update: Olsen is likely to play based on coach Ron Rivera’s comments all week. However, I’m staying away as there is potential for him to be on a snap count and due to risk of a back “flare up”.

Amari Cooper

Cooper sat out an entire month in the pre-season to nurse his plantar fasciitis, which is a chronic foot condition that can be very painful. The logic was to allow him to take it easy, rehab, and rest so it would not plague him all season like it did while still at Alabama. This was a very smart and prudent plan. Well, on Wednesday he told reporters that during Week One against the Giants, he had a “flare up” but it concluded that it is not an ongoing issue. Look, I’m not anybody to tell you to fade a receiver who just performed as well as Cooper did in that new-look offense, so I won’t. The best way to put Cooper’s situation into words is like this: with each passing week, Amari Cooper might become that yellow light that I’m just not comfortable racing through.

Patrick Mahomes

I wasn’t concerned whatsoever about Mahomes before Wednesday’s practice. He was seen during warm-ups clearly limited in lateral movements and favoring the ankle. I can’t imagine ever paying the premium for Mahomes in DFS, and even though I expect him to play, I’m looking for a better option.

Sam Darnold

Darnold was sick on Wednesday and did not practice, so watch his progression throughout the week. I’m always nervous about illnesses as hydration and fatigue are an issue.

Update: Darnold was ruled OUT for Monday’s game against the Browns. The Jets report that Darnold has mononucleosis, “the kissing disease” which is a member of a common family of viruses. This illness can cause inflammation of the spleen, which is the primary reason (aside from general fatigue) for his absence. Unfortunately for Darnold, this can cost him several weeks as the only treatment is to allow it to run it’s course.

More Updates

Le’Veon Bell: Along with the Darnold news, Adam Gase reported that Bell has a “sore shoulder” and he’ll receive an MRI. Although Gase says they are being “extra cautious” it’s a red flag to jump straight to an MRI, which will show the joint congruencey, ligaments, tendons, muscles, and overall integrity of the structures within the shoulder. I’m watching this injury closely as a shoulder injury could impact Bell’s ability to catch the football. If Bell is out, Ty Montgomery would be the cheap (and admittedly chalk) play of the week.

Update: Bell received a “precautionary” MRI that (unsurprisingly) found nothing significant. Sticking to my conservative style of play, I’m side stepping Bell in daily this week. The reasoning is that imaging reports and pain are terribly correlated and Bell can still be in quite a bit of pain despite his MRI. This could lead him to avoid contact and raising his arms to catch passes.

Derrius Guice: Guice will reportedly get a second opinion on his meniscus injury, which has a chance to turn into surgery. Although this development is more relevant in season long, it’s worth noting that Chris Thompson’s stock is on the rise this week. Use him in lineups before his price goes up.

KeKe Coutee: Coutee is making progress in practice and has the potential to play this week. I would wait a day or so longer before making a solid decision on him.

Sterling Shepard: Monitor his progress through concussion protocol. As of now, he has a good chance of playing

Update: Coutee was a full participant in practice Thursday. He could be a sneaky play this week.

Everybody Else

Lastly, for the less informed crowd, I want to provide a list of players who have been ruled out for Week Two (and beyond in most cases). I assume most people are aware of these players by now, but just to be sure: Tyreek Hill, Keke Coutee Tevin Coleman, Nick Foles, Derrius Guice, Devin Funchess, Quincy Enunwa, Hunter Henry.

Keep an eye out for an updated versions of this report on Saturday and Sunday before kickoff. Thank you for reading!

Featured image courtesy of Chris J. Nelson.

6 years ago 0 comments

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