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Welcome to the Week 1 edition of The Inside Look for the 2022 NFL season. This will be a data driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend. My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.
With the completion of the Monday Night game between the Broncos and Seahawks, Week 1 is finally over. And what a week it was!
Let’s dig into the data!
Before we dig into individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets. Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production. The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value.
Of the top 10 receivers in terms of targets this past week, 4 were new weapons in new cities. Davante Adams led the way this week with 17 targets. Adams and Derek Carr clicked instantly as he went for 141 yards on 10 receptions and even found the endzone. Adams’s 17 targets were nearly half of the passes thrown by Carr. It’s clear right from the start that the Raiders’ offense will go through Adams. Adams will have the benefit of facing off against a Cardinals team in Week 2 that saw their defense give up 360 passing yards, more than any team in the league.
A.J. Brown was another new face in a new city as the former Titans receiver made his Eagles debut. Brown’s 13 targets were the most of any Eagles player. His final stat line in Week 1 was 10 receptions for 155 yards. Although he didn’t find the end zone in Week 1, the Eagles were able to win in a shootout vs. the Lions. Up next will be a date with the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings were middle of the pack this week against the pass, giving up 260 passing yards.
A mainstay of this article from last year, Cooper Kupp went out and did Cooper Kupp-type things on Thursday night. While the rest of the Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams struggled mightily in Week 1, Kupp was the bright spot of the night. He was targeted 15 times and caught 13 of them for 128 yards and a TD. Stafford and the Rams will look to get back on track next week vs. a Falcons team that gave up 2 passing TD this weekend.
With the Broncos down seemingly the entire game, Russel Wilson went with a pass-heavy offense and that included Javonte Williams. Williams led all backs in Week 1 with 12 targets. Of those 12 targets, he was able to reel in 11 of them for 65 yards.
When it comes to pass-catching running backs, Joe Mixon is normally at the top of the list. Mixon ended Sunday with 9 targets and was able to reel in 7 of them for 63 receiving yards. Some of the extra targets that Mixon received this weekend were partly due to Tee Higgins missing most of the game with a concussion. It will be interesting to see in Week 2 if he has that big of a target share should Higgins return. Up next, the Bengals will face off against the Cowboys in Week 2.
With the Rams down most of the game, Stafford was forced the throw the ball quite often. Only a handful of QB’s threw the ball more than Stafford this weekend. Kupp was near the top of the list in targets for receivers, but Tyler Higbee was all the way at the top of the list for tight ends and targets. Although Higbee led all tight ends in targets, he was only able to catch 5 of them for 39 yards. Higbee owners are hopeful that the targets will continue in Week 2, but more hopeful that he’ll catch a few more than he did in Week 1.
After a solid rookie season, Pat Freiermuth picked up right where he left off. His 10 targets trailed only Higbee. He was able to catch 5 of the 10 targets and finish with 75 yards. Next up for Freiermuth and the Steelers will be a matchup with the Patriots.
It was the Saquon Barkley show on Sunday, on the ground and in the air. Daniel Jones only threw the ball 21 times on Sunday, but nearly a third of those targets went to Barkley. Finally healthy, Barkley is back to being the focal point of this Giants offense. His 7 targets led the team and Jones targeted his running backs a total 8 times.
Of the 38 passes Trevor Lawrence threw on Sunday, more than 70% went to his wide receivers. He clicked instantly with his shiny new weapon as Christian Kirk accounted for 12 of his targets. Zay Jones wasn’t too far behind that number with 9 himself. In what will be a pass-heavy offense this season, we can feel comfortable using his receivers because we know they will get plenty of looks.
Jonathan Taylor picked up right where he left off. Taylor rushed 31 times on Sunday for 161 yards and 1 TD. If you were lucky enough to snag him in season-long drafts or were able to keep him from last year, consider yourself extremely lucky. If he isn’t already, he’s on his way to becoming the top back in the league. In Week 2 the Colts will face off against a Commanders team that gave up only 66 yards on the ground in Week 1.
Joe Mixon had not only a ton of targets on Sunday but also a ton of touches. He trailed only Taylor on Sunday. It was all good news though as he had one of the lowest yards per carry of any of the top backs. On 27 carries, he finished with just 82 yards.
Is this the Saquon Barkley the Giants were hoping for when they drafted him? Barkley had one of the best games in his career Sunday. On 18 carries, he finished with 164 yards on the ground and found the endzone. Finally healthy, Barkley will look to surpass the 1,000-yard rushing mark for the first time since 2019. He’s well on his way after a great Week 1.
The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.
With the weather being just absolutely awful, the Bears ran the ball nearly 70% of the time on Sunday. As the weather gets better for them, I’m sure we’ll see Justin Fields throwing the ball just a bit more than he did on Sunday.
Facing off against a tough run defense in the Ravens and also being down the majority of the game, Joe Flacco and the Jets went with a pass-heavy offense. They threw the ball nearly 80% of the time. Flacco threw the ball 59 times on Sunday, finishing with 307 yards.
Another team that had a pass-heavy offense was the Las Vegas Raiders. They threw the ball just a bit more than 70% of the time on Sunday. This is a trend that will more than likely continue as Carr will continue to throw heavily at Adams.
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Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
The NFL DFS season concludes with the showdown slates for the Super Bowl, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big in the big game!
NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021. This article will focus on the FanDuel contests, rules and pricing.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences on the MVP slot on FanDuel: FD doesn’t assess a salary penalty but still bumps the points scored to 1.5x – a crucial factor in who we choose since the chalkiest player is that much more chalky on FD.
So, in writing a FanDuel-specific column, I certainly want many of the same guys, but we have to take some chances at the top slot, because there’s no penalty. As I said on the DK article, Cooper Kupp is once again the chalk. The NFL’s top scoring fantasy WR is drawing heavy ownership on FD as well, thought Matt Stafford is on his heels a lot more with these rules. I like Stafford, but Joe Burrow and the Bengals are who I’ll lean to more. I REALLY like going with Ja’Marr Chase as the top guy on FD in at least half of my large-field GPP entries.
As I said, one of the main reasons Burrow has had so much success is the play of rookie WR Chase — Burrow’s teammate at LSU and a certified surprise given his depleted draft stick last April and the struggles he faced during training camp and the preseason. Chase doesn’t need much of a window to find the sunlight of the end zone, and if there’s one QB-WR stack we should focus on building around, it’s this one.
Bengals notes: After Burrow and Chase, the options are still plentiful, with the sure-handed and statuesque Tee Higgins offering immense upside in both the red zone and between the 20s, veteran WR Tyler Boyd operating skillfully in the slot as a target-rich value play, and Joe Mixon — who’s useful on just about any down and distance as well and effective in the red zone as a bruising but nimble runner and pass-catcher. As was the case on DK, I’ll be crafting some lineups that include kicker Evan McPherson and C.J. Uzomah (questionable with a knee injury) if the TE can suit up and play on Sunday.
Rams notes: RB Cam Akers is a much better value play on DK, so I’m not as interested on FD. Tyler Higbee and Kendall Blanton are the same price on FD, so there’s a direct swap out if Higbee doesn’t suit up or is limited. I’d much rather play Higgins over Odell Beckham Jr. in single-entry GPPs and cash games, but OBJ needs to be considered for large-field GPPs as a leverage play. He’s not as risky as Boyd (my favorite leverage play on DK), and more expensive, but I could see him winning somebody a lot of money as the MVP. We know just how good he can be, and if coverage is overly focused on Kupp, he can hurt this Bengals defense with volume, red zone dominance and the TDs it takes to win on FD.
FD Strategy Notes: The strategy on FD is pretty simple. If you’re looking for leverage on the field, go with Chase or OBJ at MVP and play Burrow with Kupp and some Rams value. For cash games I want to squeeze a QB in the top slot and make sure I have Kupp and one of either Chase or Higgins in there as well.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.
DON’T: Be afraid to take some risks.
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.
DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.
Now that we’ve established some NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates for the big game, the best way (as always) to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for the Super Bowl action!
The NFL DFS season concludes with the showdown slates for the Super Bowl, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big in the big game!
NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021. This article will focus on the DraftKings contests, rules and pricing.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences on the Captain slot on DraftKings: DK bumps both the points scored and salary cost to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on the site. This can sometimes allow us to build more creative stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
It’s the Cooper Kupp chalk show this week as the NFL’s top scoring fantasy WR is drawing heavy ownership as the captain of about 65-70% of projected lineups thus far, but as good as he is, I’d like to start off our discussion with some thoughts on Bengals sophomore QB Joe Burrow.
Burrow suffered grade 3 tears of both his ACL and MCL on November 22, 2020 — Week 11 of his rookie season in a game against the Washington Football Team (now the Commanders). Despite being a few days shy of 15 months after that fateful date, a LOT has changed since then. What looked like a serious roadblock to a promising young QB’s career has melted away. The WFT has a new name. We’re still forging bravely through a difficult time here on Earth, with folks still getting sick and the many challenges of confronting and navigating a pandemic, and Joey B isn’t just recovering and rehabbing from the injury — he’s culminating a brilliant season with a trip to the Super Bowl, replete with a host of dangerous offensive weapons who have a nose for the end zone and the ability to take it to the house on any touch.
I don’t want to take away from the laudable accomplishments of Kupp after a legendary NFL season or Matthew Stafford leading this Rams team to the big game after toiling away in the purgatory of Detroit for so many years, but what Burrow has accomplished this season is otherworldly — the kind of comeback that’s fit for celluloid or the images of a flashing dreamscape.
One of the main reasons Burrow has had so much success is the play of rookie WR Ja’Marr Chase — Burrow’s teammate at LSU and a certified surprise given his depleted draft stick last April and the struggles he faced during training camp and the preseason. Chase doesn’t need much of a window to find the sunlight of the end zone, and if there’s one QB-WR stack we should focus on building around, it’s this one.
Bengals notes: After Burrow and Chase, the options are still plentiful, with the sure-handed and statuesque Tee Higgins offering immense upside in both the red zone and between the 20s, veteran WR Tyler Boyd operating skillfully in the slot as a target-rich value play, and Joe Mixon — who’s useful on just about any down and distance as well and effective in the red zone as a bruising but nimble runner and pass-catcher. The Bengals DST could be a surprising value as well (despite the matchup), and I’ll be crafting plenty of lineups that include kicker Evan McPherson and C.J. Uzomah (questionable with a knee injury) if the TE can suit up and play on Sunday.
Rams notes: The Rams aren’t exactly starved for offensive options in this matchup, but knowing who to play could be a little more difficult to discern given the injury issues surrounding RB Cam Akers and TE Tyler Higbee, as well as the absolutely dynamic play of Odell Beckham Jr. over the past few games. A great addition after losing Robert Woods to a season-ending mid-November practice injury, OBJ took a couple weeks to adjust to the playbook and find his happy place in LA, but promptly racked up 19-236-1 on just 23 targets over the first three weeks of the playoffs. Waiting in the wings to help our builds from a value standpoint are Sony Michel, TE Kendall Blanton (the possible fill-ins for Akers and Higbee, respectively) and even RB Darrell Henderson, Jr., who has a good chance to return from IR to be activated for Super Bowl LVI. The Rams DST has a chance to be part of the narrative as well, but they’ll need to get some pressure on Burrow and do what no other team this playoffs ahs been able to do — shut down the juggernaut passing game and prevent some of the quick scores that have punctuated their wins.
DK Strategy Notes: If we’re willing to fade Kupp, it’s pretty simple to get a nice-looking Bengals stack with Burrow/Chase at CPT/UTIL and another top-flight WR (either Higgins or Boyd) and still get a piece of the Rams offense with OBJ or a value RB. If we decide to play Burrow/Chase and squeeze in Kupp at another UTIL spot, we can still make do with the $4K+ for each of the remaining three slots.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.
DON’T: Be afraid to take some risks.
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.
DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.
Now that we’ve established some NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates for the big game, the best way (as always) to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for the Super Bowl action!
Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($150 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.
Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Touchdown Dance. This Sunday MKF is running a special contest where if you play in a $5+ Touchdown Dance contest and all 3 of your players score a touchdown you get share of the jackpot. Today’s jackpot is $5,000!
Let’s dig in and see if we can find sometouchdowns!
Jonathan Taylor vs. Buffalo Bills
Jonathan Taylor is playing some insane football right now. He’s on a stretch we haven’t seen in quite some time. Since week 14 he has 14 rushing touchdowns and 2 receiving touchdowns. Over the last 2 weeks he rushed for 5 touchdowns against 2 of the better rush defenses in the league.
This week he gets a matchup vs. a Texans team that is one of only 6 teams to give up double digit rushing touchdowns on the year. Look, anything can happen on any given Sunday. But we’re talking about one of the best backs in the business against one of the worst rush defenses in the league. Nothing is ever a lock, but Taylor is as close to a lock for a touchdown as there is this weekend. Confidence Level – Bet the farm.
Joe Mixon vs. San Diego Chargers
Another team that has really struggled against the run? Well look no farther than the San Diego Chargers. On the year only the Jets have given up more rushing touchdowns than the Chargers. Chargers have given up 14 rushing touchdowns this season. They haven’t gone a game without giving up without giving up a rushing touchdown since week 4 against the Raiders.
If we switch gears to talk about Mixon, well he’s been damn solid. Over the past 2 weeks he’s rushed for close to 300 yards and has 4 touchdowns. He’s scored multiple touchdowns in 4 straight and has found the end zone in all but 2 games this season. The stars have aligned for Mixon and he has a solid chance to make it 5 straight with multiple touchdowns. Confidence Level – High
Miles Sanders vs. New York Jets
This pick is more matchup based than it is talent based as Sanders has yet to find the end zone this season. Jets are one of the worst teams at defending the rush. Over the past 4 weeks they’ve given up over 500 yards rushing and 6 touchdowns to running backs. Everything is pointing to Sanders having a great game today.
The Eagles will be without Jordan Howard and their “star” QB in Jalen Hurts. All of those extra chances, especially in the red zone, should funnel to Sanders today. If Sanders finally gets more than a couple of red zone looks today, he should be able to finally find the end zone. Confidence Level – It’s the Eagles so I’m going with Medium
Other guys I also liks this week are Alexander Mattison, Mike Evans, and Leonard Fournette. With some really bad offenses on the field today, we should see a healthy amount of touchdowns.
Good luck and hope to share the $5k with you!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! !
Welcome to the Week 12 edition of The Inside Look for the 2021 NFL season. This will be a data driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend. My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.
Outside of the MNF game we have a pretty good sense of what transpired this past weekend.
Let’s dig in to the data!
Before we dig in to individual playing performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets. Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production. The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value.
With the Steelers getting blown out by the Bengals the majority of the game, Big Ben took to the air and threw the ball a ton. Diontae Johnson saw 14 targets for the first time this season. This was the eighth time out of 10 games he’s played in where he had double digit targets. At 95 yards he just missed getting his third 100 yard game of the year.
Jaylen Waddle had one of his best games of the season yesterday. For the first time this season he cracked the 100 yard mark as he finished with 137 yards receiving.
Prior to this week Waddle had cracked the 80 yard mark just once in week 7 vs. the Falcons. Can he keep it up next week vs. the Giants?
Welcome to LA Mr. OBJ. After an under whelming debut vs. the 49ers a couple of weeks ago, OBJ finally got into the action. For the first time this year he had double digit targets.
He was able to catch 5 passes yesterday for 81 yards and 1 touchdown. It was his first score of the year. Maybe it was Baker?
Two Sundays ago it was the Jonathan Taylor show. Yesterday, it was the Leonard Fournette show. Fournette did it through the air and on the ground yesterday. Fournette was tied with all backs yesterday with 8 targets. He was able to catch 7 of them for 31 yards and 1 receiving touchdown. We’ll get to Fournette on the ground shortly.
Austin Ekeler was another guy that had 8 targets this weekend. That’s not new to him though as it’s a number he’s hit a couple of times this season.
Ekeler finished the game with 68 yards on 6 catches and for the third straight week he found the end zone. That now makes it 7 receiving touchdowns on the year for him.
Cole Kmet reached double digit targets for the first time this year. Prior to this week he hadn’t had more than 9 and finished Sunday with 11. The 65 yards he had were also the second most he’s had all year.
If the Bears continue to have limited options, Kmet has a chance to really showcase his talents. Next up is a tough Cardinals team coming off a bye.
Rob Gronkowski had a flash back type game this weekend. His 10 targets and 123 yards were both season highs. Prior to this week he hadn’t had more than 8 targets which he had hit twice. It was also the first time he hit the 100 yard mark. Next week he gets a great match up vs. a bad Falcons team.
Jared Goff only threw the ball 25 times this weekend, but half off those went to either his running backs and tight end. With the Lions not having a strong group of healthy wide receivers we can expect this trend to continue.
Tom Brady threw 34 passes this weekend. 14 of those went to the duo of Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate. Both Godwin and Evans had very light games as the two combined for only 10 targets. Not what the DFS world was expecting to see yesterday. With Gronkowski having a solid game funneling all the passes to him made sense.
Leonard Fournette tried doing his best Jonathan Taylor imitation, in front of the man himself. Fournette had by far his best game of the season. He finished with 100 yards on the ground and 31 through the air. Between rushing and receiving he found the endzone 4 times on Sunday. Have yourself a day Mr. Fournette.
Joe Mixon is on a mission. Over the last 2 weeks he has close to 290 yards rushing. This week Mixon finished with 165 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns. He now has multiple touchdowns in 3 straight weeks and only has 3 games this season without a rushing touchdown.
Elijah Mitchell now has a couple of games this season where he has shown some serious upside. For the second time this season he had over 130 yards rushing as he finished Sunday with 133 yards rushing and 1 touchdown. It was fourth rushing touchdown this season. Up next week is a surprisingly poor Seahawks defense.
The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.
With the Steelers down big most of the game, Big Ben took to the air often on Sunday. He threw the ball more than 70% of the time. The Steelers continue to run a heavy pass offense even with one of the top backs in the league in Harris.
Nothing seemed to work for the Eagles this weekend. Up until this week they were running a mostly ground offense. This weekend they flipped the script a bit and only ran the ball about 55% of the time on Sunday. Who would have throught it would be the Giants that would make Jalen Hurts look like Mitch Trubinsky?
We had some solid individual performances this weekend. 11 different players had over 100 yards receiving and 6 running backs had over 100 yards rushing. 8 quarterbacks threw for over 300 yards also. Leonard Fournette did his best Al Bundy impersonation and matched his 4 touchdown performance.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Bye weeks are here ladies and gentlemen! Week 8 is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. When you have time, be sure to check out Stix’s GPP Play article, as he will provide his own insights on some of the plays below and will likely have some guys that I didn’t even consider. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 8 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.31
***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***
Derrick Henry gets his own spot at the top every week because he is in a class all his own. He will always carry ownership but he has a week in, week out ceiling that is unrivaled in fantasy football. If you can fit him and want to play him I will not talk you off of it. Henry is under 10% this week so he is extremely viable in GPP’s. All Hail the King!
As of Friday the following Browns defensive players are out or limited and could be out: Richard LeCounte III (safety), Denzel Ward, (cornerback), Jadeveon Clowney (defensive end), A.J. Green (cornerback), Malik Jackson (defensive tackle), Takkarist McKinley (defensive end). Because of that, the little red 4 next to Najee’s name on DraftKings causes me zero concern. Ignoring that Broncos game where Fangio decided to run his backs a total of 12 times even then Javonte Williams caught 6 passes for 32 yards and a TD) the Browns have been shredded by opposing running backs. Austin Ekeler had 5 catches, 119 total yards and 3 TD’s and the combination of James Connor and Chase Edmonds had 20 for 117 yards and caught 4 of 5 targets. Najee Harris is the league leader in offensive snaps per game for RB’s (57.2), Targets per game (7.7), second in catches (34), and third in FPPG (20.2). The depleted Browns defense is a spot that I am looking to target in some of my GPP builds as his 8% projected ownership is far too low for the floor/ceiling combination that he provides.
I know I know, we do not typically recommend “non pass catching” running backs outside of King Henry on DraftKings but the only reason Damien didn’t continue his dominating performance (14 carries for 106 yards and two TD’s and two catches for seven yards) is because the Patriots beat the Jets so badly he barely saw the field in the second quarter. It is unlikely that this week will be a repeat and the Charger have the worst group of interior run stoppers in the NFL and it isn’t particularly close. In a game with a projected 51.4 total and a relatively close 4.5 point spread Harris should be in line for a workload north of 20 touches. That being said, this is still a Bill Belichick run offense and we all know that he hates your fantasy team so use discretion. Nothing worse than going all in on a player that can be limited due to coaching decisions.
I really do not believe that this ownership data is correct here. If Nick Chubb is under 8% Sunday with no Kareem Hunt it is officially time to call him the most disrespected player in fantasy sports. Yes, I know it is the Steelers, no I do not care. He is healthy and he should get the lion’s share of the work on that offense without multiple weapons on the Browns right now. He is still one of the premier talents in the NFL at running back and is averaging almost six yards per carry.
Also Consider: Eli Mitchell, Alvin Kamara, Antonio Gibson
I know that last week we found ourselves in a bit of a letdown spot where the Lions played with reckless abandon last week and actually took the lead in the first have and kept the ball out of the hands of the Ram’s for almost the entire first quarter despite being almost 20 point dogs. But in DFS you have to keep a short memory when it comes to outliers. Henderson finds himself in another fantastic spot as the Rams are 16.5 point favorites against a Texans team who is at the bottom of the league in run defense despite changing to a 4-3 under defensive coordinator Lovie Smith. Hendo is also sitting as the highest projected owned running back at anywhere between 20-25% and probably closer to 35%+ in cash contests if I were to read the tea leaves a little. Fading any player at that ownership is a dangerous proposition when you are building cash lineups.
Swift is far too cheap for a game-script proof running back and it looks like everyone agrees as he is projected as our 2nd highest rostered running back on the slate. Nobody in the league has caught more passes out of the backfield and Jared Goff’s inability to get beyond two reads has been a huge benefit to his receiving value. The Lions have been forced to design short passing routes out of the backfield specifically for Swift due to their limitations at quarterback and we saw them lean into this last week against the Rams where he saw 10 targets and saw his best yards per catch number (12 YPC) on the year. Another thing I love is that over the last few weeks is his carry numbers have been very steady at 13 carries over the last two and double digits in all three. He is popular but he is safe, and safe is what we want for cash games.
It took a couple of weeks but the coaching staff for the Jags realized that their offense should start with the running game and build outward. Since week three when they figured that out, James Robinson has scored no less that 19.1 fantasy points on DraftKings and there is no reason that should change against a helpless Seahawks team who struggles defensively on the best of days and is now getting no time to rest with Geno Smith at the helm. Volume+skill+good matchup=Fantasy Gold.
Also Consider: Kenneth Gainwell, Chuba Hubbard
It is time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our WDS: Week 8 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.31. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
Bye weeks are here ladies and gentlemen! Week 7 is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. When you have time, be sure to check out Stix’s GPP Play article, as he will provide his own insights on some of the plays below and will likely have some guys that I didn’t even consider. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 7 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.24
***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***
Cash running backs are about as straight forward as it gets for me this week. We have a few prime matchups that are where I think you should start your cash builds. With so many bye weeks your core of running backs should not vary all that much, just stick with the obvious plays and make your adjustments with wide receivers. Gpp’s we have a few pivots in pretty good spots but as you already know, this is a rough week so tread lightly.
Matt LaFleur is so frustrating when it comes to how he utilizes his running backs but this is a fantastic position for Aaron Jones and we get to roster him at less than 6%. This is impossible to ignore in a week where there are so many injuries and bye weeks. Washington’s defense has been a huge letdown this season being dead last in points per game allowed (31.0) and bottom seven in nearly every defensive statistical category. The question is not whether or not Jones can produce, the question is will Matt LaFleur just go with what works or will he try to be the “smartest coach on the field” as we have seen the snap share go from 70-30 in the first two weeks to 60-40 in two of the last three weeks.
Last week the Ravens looked as if they got a little bit of their mojo back defensively but I am willing to chalk that up as the Chargers being historically bad when it comes to traveling to the east coast. On a re-watch of that game, I did not see anything from Baltimore that made me think they have turned the corner so until I see it with any consistency, targeting pass-catching backs against the Ravens is still a preferred play for me. Mixon was used heavily in that role against the Packers last week, bringing in five of six targets for 59 yards and a TD to go along with 18 carries while still being less than 100%. Mixon’s volume is second only behind Derrick Henry on the season, facing the 28th ranked DVOA when it comes to pass-catching backs, and is going completely ignored being projected between 5-7% rostered on the day making this an elite target for GPP’s on the day.
With everyone gravitating towards Chase Edmonds in what should be a prime spot against the basement dwelling Texans, James Connor saw a 55% snap share compared to Edmonds last week, has a higher rushing prop, and has the best odds to score (-140) of the game. With the Cardinals being an obscene 18.5 point favorite Connor should see his largest workload by far this week and he is being projected under 4% on the slate.
Also Consider: Antonio Gibson (sub 4%, monitor the injury news), JD McKissic (sub 3%, DK only),
I feel like I am copying and pasting this every week but Henry finds himself in another smash spot against a team that is susceptible against the run. You will here me, Ghost, and Stix talk about Henry ad nauseum this week and every week going forward so I will not waste your time repeating the same thing. Fade him at your own peril. All hail the King.
When this season started there were workload concerns and whether or not Henderson could handle the burden of being a number one. After 6 weeks of action, we have a large enough sample to say clearly that he can handle the role. Henderson has had no less than 16 touches in all five of the games he has played and scored no less than 15.7 DK points to date. Now he gets to face the 7th worst defense in terms of DVOA against running backs on the ground and the worst by a wide margin through the air. Oh yeah, and for added benefit, Stafford will be going into this game wanting to beat the breaks off of the Lions. The fans in Detroit spent the last decade blaming their poor performance on Stafford and he is going to go out of his way to rub it in. This is likely going to get out of hand in a hurry and Henderson will have plenty of time to run it down their throat in the second half of the game.
With CMC suddenly finding his way to the IR last week (NFL needs to get a handle on coaches withholding information but that’s another story) this is Chuba’s backfield until further notice and boy does he get a nice week seven opponent in the New York Giants. With a 65% snap share in each of the last two weeks and 16 carries to go along with 3 targets even in a negative game script last week he presents a solid floor at 6.1k with a 95.5 total yards prop and the best odds to score in the game.
Also Consider: Darrel Williams, Leonard Fournette, Josh Jacobs, D’Andre Swift
It is time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our WDS: Week 7 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.24. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 4 NFL DFS contests!
NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Choosing your captain is going to be a wide-open proposition this week, as nobody stands out among the player pool as a guy you absolutely need on TNF. I think the best strategy is to narrow your player pool to the players most likely to succeed given what should be a high-yardage game (if not high-scoring, as the O/U is only at 46). Joe Burrow should be the chalk, however, with Joe Mixon and Ja’Marr Chase running slightly behind.
Bengals notes: There are two main items of importance to discuss on the injury front, as both safety Jessie Bates and WR Tee Higgins have been ruled out for Thursday’s contest. We’ll discuss the Bates injury in the context of the Jaguars offense in a bit, but the Higgins injury means that more targets will be concentrated among Chase, Tyler Boyd and Mixon — while C.J. Uzomah (just four catches on five targets through three games) remains a fringe fantasy option even in this showdown format. I’m a little less interested in the Bengals DST than I would be if Bates was playing, but they’re still a unit that could come up big against the mistake-prone Jaguars offense. Kicker Evan McPherson is in play, but not much of a priority, as the yardage totals in this game should be a little higher than expected. WR Mike Thomas is the only sub-$1K player I’d consider, and that would only be in 1/20 large-field GPPs.
Jaguars notes: Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars passing game gets a slight uptick with Bates out, as the Bengals safety is one of the best coverage DBs in football and a guy they use all over the field — in the slot, deep in coverage and in man against TEs and WRs (although some of that loss will be mitigated by the return of Bengals CB Trae Waynes from a hamstring injury). Marvin Jones, Jr. has been the most targeted WR on the team this season (and the most productive), but I think they’ll find some ways to get Laviska Shenault, Jr. the ball a bit more in this matchup given the defensive shakeup on the Bengals. The other main options are D.J. Chark, Jr. (why is everybody a JUNIOR?) and James Robinson, who has resumed more of a bell cow role in the offense, logging 15 carries and six targets last week against the Cards, The Jaguars DST is also really cheap, and is just a dart throw play in large-field GPPs since they’ve yet to reach double digits in any DK contest this year. Still — they offer the most consistent production of any FLEX option under $4K, even with the glaring possibility of negative points. And don’t forget about TEs Dan Arnold (who makes the TNF showdown write-up two weeks in a row as he was acquired earlier this week from the Panthers) and Jacob Hollister, a $1K punt play who was targeted six times by Lawrence last week en route to 2-15-0. Josh Lambo is out tonight, and I don’t know if new Jags kicker Matthew Wright will be added to the player pool before lock — but I’d avoid him unless he’s a late addition and really cheap.
Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.
DON’T: Tread too much in the sub-$1K range this week. It’s basically just Hollister and Thomas, and they are 1/20 or 2/20 GPP plays at best.
Now that we’ve established some Week 3 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 4 action!
We are here ladies and gentlemen! Week one is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. And check out Adam’s fantastic Game by Game breakdown for week 1. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 1 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.12
I am going to put this at the top of my articles until the status quo changes. If you want to play Christian McCaffrey and can afford him, go for it. His floor/ceiling combination is unmatched from week to week. This just saves me a few minutes for every Running Back DFS Breakdown just stating the obvious.
***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***
While much of the attention will go to running backs like Dalvin Cook (17.64% Ownership), Christian McCaffrey (22.21% Ownership), and Alvin Kamara (24.12% Ownership) there is a certain rushing title winner who is projected under 8% ownership. While everyone is concerned with the coaching changes for the Titans and the little red 10 next to Arizona’s ranking we find a prime GPP pivot to take advantage of. The Cardinals are 10th worst in rushing 1st downs allowed (118), 7th worst in YPC (4.6), and 11th worst in 1st Down % (27.1). Now, throw in the 3rd fastest pace, aggressive blitz tendencies, and that the Cardinals spend more time in nickel packages than any other team (4-2-5 base, cover one) and we can begin to see how a beast like Henry can break this GPP slate wide open.
All I needed was to see him in the final preseason game for a few snaps just to make sure his knee was ok and I knew he would end up somewhere in my article in week one. The Lions are a mess and the Niners are one of the most prolific rushing franchises over the last several seasons. Trey Sermon is going to get plenty of work, that much is certain, but Mostert does not need 18-20 carries to smash value. Week one last season, Mostert, on 15 carries only had 56 yards rushing but caught four passes for 95 yards and a touchdown. The man is a Lamborghini. Sure, something will almost certainly happen that sidelines him at some point, but while he is healthy you should have him sprinkled into your GPP builds. Especially when they are expected to get ahead against weak run defenses.
I do not know why his ownership is so low. Atlanta’s defensive personnel can not keep up with this dynamic playmaker, at least not yet. I think people remember the last couple of seasons where the previous coaching regime would rotate backs with no rhyme or reason. Take a breath folks, Nick Sirianni is coming from Indy and he does not share that thought process. Miles will get more reps this year in both carries and targets in 2021 if Sanders stays healthy this should be a career year in terms of volume and production. Dean Pees (ATL Defensive Coordinator) loves, loves, loves blitzing from the secondary, and if Hurts sees that, Miles Sanders can be wide open on those blitz packages and running to daylight. Trust me here folks. Get a couple of shares of him in your GPP’s this week and you will be glad that you did.
Also Consider: Jonathan Taylor, Aaron Jones, Chase Edmonds
Pricing for both Draftkings and FanDuel came out around a month ago and even at that time I was eyeing Robinson as a potential GPP play. Etienne is a different kind of back and J-Rob, at least for week one, was always fairly safe. Texans are a disaster on both sides of the ball thanks to the Bill O’Brien era and my early script included a heavy dose of running the clock down into the second half. That has not changed since pricing came out, and now we have no Etienne to compete with for workload. Robinson averaged 17.8 carries and 4.3 targets per game in 2020. This year the Jags have a better O-Line, more WR depth, and their franchise QB who already looks like he belongs, so defenses can no longer cheat to stop the run game. Robinson should have a field day in week one with no real competition for touches and targets against arguably the worst franchise in the NFL.
If the Vikings do not get behind early there is one thing that you can be assured of. Dalvin Cook will carry the ball 20+ times and see anywhere from 3-5 Targets in the passing game. I think the Bengals will be improved this season but Burrow will likely be rusty in the early going and the offensive line will take some time to gel. That means stalled drives and a game script where Dal can feast. The Bengals year in and year out have a defense that gets holes ripped through it on the ground and in 2020 they were second worst, giving up 5.1 yards per carry for almost 2,400 yards (fourth-worst). With no Irv Smith and Kyle Rudolph out of the picture, Cook’s already league-leading red zone rush attempts (68 attempts for 13 TD’s) will almost certainly increase and it will be immediate.
The Chargers traveling to the east coast is bad, playing that game at 1:00 PM EST/10:00 AM PST is even worse, and in my opinion not getting any of your starter’s reps in the preseason is a strike three. I fully expect the Chargers to play a flat game against last season’s DROY Chase Young and the rest of that tough Washington defense. Staley’s defensive scheme for LAC (at least up front) is to have three down linemen tight to the formation forcing the ball handler to go outside. That spells disaster as Antonio Gibson is incredibly quick outside of the tackles and was regularly used in off-tackle runs as well as screenplays in 2020. A quick note on Gibson, he played almost half of the season with a foot injury and he has already told us that he was 100% good now.
Also Consider: Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon
It is finally time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our Win Daily Sports: Week 1 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.12 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
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