Welcome to the Super Bowl edition of PrizePicks Picks and Props. In this article we’ll be highlighting some of my favorite props that PrizePicks is giving us.
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We’ve made it folks. After a long, grueling season we’ve finally made it to the Super Bowl. We have 2 dynamic offenses going this weekend some of the top players in the league. It should be a game for the ages!
Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.
Joe Burrow – 270.5 Passing Yards
The kid from LSU just continues to win. So far in the playoffs he’s beaten Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Tannehill, and Derek Carr. Can he make it 4 for 4 and beat Matthew Stafford? If the Bengals have any hope of winning this weekend, it’s going to be on the back, well arm of Joe Burrow. He’s willed the team to victory in more than a handful of games and I think he does it again this weekend.
The Rams, while having a solid secondary, have shown some susceptibility in the playoffs as they gave up over 300 yards to Tom Brady. Burrow has a ton of weapons to throw to and he’ll use them heavily on Sunday night. He’s “balled out” when the Bengals have needed him the most, and they’ll need him Sunday night. I’m siding with the over on the 270.5 passing yards that PrizePicks is giving us.
Matthew Stafford – 278.5 Passing Yards
On the other side of the ball we’ll have a QB in Stafford that will hopefully have two cities rooting for him in Los Angeles and Detroit. Childhood friend and teammate Clayton Kershaw already has a World Series ring. Does Stafford add a Super Bowl ring to the Highland Park High School trophy case? Like the Rams, the Bengals have also given some big numbers in the playoffs.
Derek Carr threw for over 300 in the Wild Card Game and then Mahomes threw for 275 in the Conference Championship. While a tough D, they can give up some yards in a hurry and like Burrow, Stafford has a plethora of weapons. His two main targets are two of the best in the league in Kupp and Beckham. We also can’t forget about Jefferson. I’m going with the over on the number that PrizePicks has set for us.
Joe Mixon – 60.5 Rushing Yards
I love Mixon, I really do. He’s a phenomenal back with tremendous upside. That said, I think he falls just short of his number this week. If the Bengals win this one, it’s going to be through the air and not on the ground. Burrow is at his best when he’s slinging the ball around to guys like Chase, Higgins, and Boyd. Mixon has been a huge reason why the Bengals have gotten to this point, I just don’t think he’ll get the run in this one. He falls just short of the 60.5 rushing yards from PrizePicks.
Ja’Marr Chase – 77.5 Receiving Yards
Big game player in his what is his biggest game to date in the NFL. Yes, Jalen Ramsey has already been very vocal about flanking Chase all game. It’s going to be a tough game for Chase and Chase did have a down game against the Chiefs in the conference championship. That said, I just don’t see a scenario where it happens 2 weeks in a row, especially in a game this big.
Some players are born for moments like this one. Chase is that type of player. Since Week 16 vs. the Ravens, Chase has had 4 games over 100 yards receiving. This week it will be 5 games and Chase battles Burrow for Super Bowl MVP. I’m going with the over on this one.
Cooper Kupp – 105.5 Yards
What else is there to say at this point about Cooper Kupp? Including the playoffs, he has just 4 games under 100 receiving yards since week 6. He’s had just an unreal year and he’ll be needed if the Rams have hopes of holding off the feel good Bengals. Kupp, regardless of who’s covering him, continues to find open spaces deep and Stafford always finds a way to find him when he is. Sunday night should be no exceptions. Look for Kupp to have yet another 100 yard game and smash the PrizePicks target.
One other pick and you won’t find this one on PrizePicks. My bet for first song during the halftime show will be Lose Yourself.
Good luck and hope to see some green bars come Sunday night!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Welcome to the inaugural edition of PrizePicks Picks and Props. In this article, we’ll be highlighting some of my favorite props that PrizePicks is giving us.
Not already a PrizePicks member? Sign up today using the button below and you’ll get a bonus match of 100% up to $100. And to top it off, we’ll give you a free month of Win Daily Gold ($50 value).
Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.
Joe Burrow – 282.5 Passing Yards
One of the first things I look at when trying to find targetable props on PrizePicks is to see what some of the SportsBooks have these players at. FanDuel currently has a line of 291.5 passing yards for Burrow. We are essentially getting Burrow at a 9 yard discount on PrizePicks today. This 282.5 yard prop is one that Burrow should have no trouble hitting today.
He’s crushed this number 3 out of his last 4 games. Last week vs. Tennessee he went for close to 350 yards. We also saw Josh Allen shred this defense in the fourth quarter. While the addition of Tyrann Mathieu should help Chiefs secondary today, I’m still going to go with the Over on this one as I think this game turns into a shootout similar to last week.
Patrick Mahomes – 283.5 Passing Yards
What can’t Mahomes do at this point? While Mahomes is a special quarterback during the regular season, what he does in the playoffs is on a whole different level. So far in the 2022 playoffs Mahomes has thrown for 404 and 378 passing yards. He’s on a mission and I just don’t see the Bengals secondary being able to slow him down.
Although the Bengals were able to hold Tannehill to just 220 passing yards last weekend, they did give up over 300 yards to Derek Carr the weekend before in the Wild Card game. If Carr can do it, I see no scenario where Mahomes doesn’t. Look for Mahomes to crush his 283.5-yard prop.
Joe Mixon – 51.5 Rushing Yards
This is the one I’m least confident of if we’re being honest. I’m going to side with the over, but I can definitely see a case where he is under this prop. If the Bengals have any hope of winning today they’ll need to own the ground game and use up as much of the clock as possible. This would lead to Mixon having a solid game on the ground.
Mixon has hit this number 3 out of the last 5 weeks. Last week he rushed for 54 yards. In the 2 weeks he didn’t hit the number, he was still within a handful of yards of hitting. I like the Over on this one but wouldn’t blame you for going Under.
Ja’Marr Chase – 84.5 Receiving Yards
Chase continues to just dominate teams. Will he be this week’s Gabriel Davis and shred the Chiefs secondary? There’s a good chance of it. If we look at what Chase has done over the last 5 weeks, it’s pretty incredible. We can throw out the meaningless game against the Browns. I
n the other 4 games he’s broken 200 yards once and 100 yards in the other 3 teams. I love Burrow’s Over number today and a big part of it will due to the play of Chase. PrizePicks is giving us an 84.5-yard prop today. I’m confident in saying that Chase blows this away today.
Travis Kelce – 70.5 Yards
While Tyreek Hill has the breakaway speed and big-play mantra, it’s Kelce who is the steady Eddie of the 2. Kelce was targeted 9 times last week and caught 8 of them for 96 yards. Where Kelce goes, Mahomes goes. With Mahomes expected to have another monster playoff performance today, expect Kelce to be a big part of it. Kelce has hit this number 3 of the last 5 weeks. Look for him to make it 4 of 6 today. I’m siding with the Over on this one too.
Make sure to read all of our other NFL articles here.
Good luck and hope to see some green screens today!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Welcome to the Week 16 edition of The Inside Look for the 2021 NFL season. This will be a data-driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend. My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.
Outside of the MNF game, we have a pretty good sense of what transpired this past weekend.
Let’s dig into the data!
Before we dig into individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets. Targets equal opportunities and fantasy opportunities more often than create production. The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value.
This weekend saw the return of two important receivers. The first was A.J. Brown. After missing weeks 12-15 with a chest injury Brown returned and his presence was felt immediately. Brown led everyone this weekend with 16 targets. He was able to catch 11 of his 16 targets for 145 yards and 1 touchdown. The 145 yards was the third time that Brown has reached the 100 yard mark this season.
Something to keep an eye on over the last 2 weeks will be Brown’s pursuit of 1,000 yards. Brown was able to accomplish this in each of his first 2 seasons. Now, he’s just 240 yards shy of that mark, even though he’s missed multiple weeks. Over the final 2 weeks, he needs to average just 120 yards to accomplish that feat for a third straight year. Do they funnel as many passes to him as possible? I sure hope so.
The other receiver making his return was Antonio Brown. With a wide receiving corps decimated by injuries, the return of Brown could not have come at a better time. With Evans and Godwin on the shelf, Brown stole the show. Tom Brady targeted him 15 times and he was able to catch 10 of them for 101 yards. The only thing missing from Brown’s stat-line in week 16 was a touchdown pass. Should Evans make a return next week the production from Brown may be short-lived. We’ll need to keep an eye on the Buc’s roster throughout the week.
Have yourself a day Tee Higgins. Tee Higgins had by far his best game of the season. While it seemed like everyone on the Bengals had a solid day, it was Higgins that nearly broke 200 receiving yards. On his 13 targets, his final stat-line was 12 catches, 194 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns. Week 16 was very kind to the Bengals, specifically Higgins. Up next week is a much tougher task with a hot Chiefs team.
With James Conner unable to finish the game due to injury, Chase Edmonds became more two-dimensional than he normally is. Edmonds was targeted a season-high 9 teams and was able to catch 8 of them. He also had a season-high 71 receiving yards. Should Conner miss again next week and Hopkins already out, there will be plenty of targets to go around.
The Los Angeles Chargers were without their star running back this weekend, Austin Ekeler. Justin Jackson tried his hardest to make sure that his team remained successful. In what was a common trend among players having season-high performances, Jackson was targeted a season high 9 times. Coming into the week he had only been targeted 5 times over the prior 5 weeks. Jackson caught 8 of the 9 targets for 98 yards. If Ekeler should miss next week the Chargers will be in fine hands once again.
There’s no way around it, the loss of DeAndre Hopkins has really hurt the Arizona Cardinals. That said, there are players that are really trying their hardest to step up and make up for the lack of production. Zach Ertz is one of those guys. For the second consecutive week, Ertz saw double-digit targets. Ideally, he would have done just a bit more with those targets though. While he caught 8 of the targets, he was only able to gain 54 receiving yards. If the Cardinals are going to get back on track they’re going to need more out of Ertz and others.
It does not matter who is throwing the ball to Mark Andrews. Andrews just continues to pile up stats as he had his third straight game with at least 100 receiving yards. His final line in week 16 was 10 targets, 8 catches, 125 yards, and 1 touchdown. The Ravens season is in a freefall, but it has nothing to do with Mark Andrews. Andrews will look to help his team right the ship next week against a very tough Rams team.
Kyle Pitts is quietly having a really solid season. At this point, he’s just 51 yards shy of breaking 1,000 yards receiving. In week 16 Pitts broke the hundred-yard mark for the third time in 2021. Since their bye in week 6, Pitts has had no fewer than 5 targets and no more than 8. His target share has been as consistent as there is. He’ll look to continue his solid season next week against the Bills.
With a pair of top Packers receivers missing this week’s game, we saw Rodgers lean pretty heavily on his running backs and tight ends in the passing game. While Adams saw 13 targets, we also saw Rodgers throw 15 passes to his non-wide receivers. Should MVS be back next week we are sure to see a swing back to more targets to his wide receivers
I noted it above, but we’re really seeing a different game plan recently out of the Cardinals. Without their star wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins, they’re really having to spread the ball out more these days. Murray threw the ball 39 times in week 16. Of those 39, 23 went to either his backs or tight ends. Two of his top targeted guys were Zach Ertz and Chase Edmonds.
If you ask people on Twitter, Jonathan Taylor played poorly this week. The only thing that Taylor was missing in week 16 was a touchdown. Taylor broke the 100 yard mark for the third straight week and made it 100 yards or more for the sixth time in the last 7 weeks. He continues to be the workhorse of this offense and is putting up numbers worthy of being in the MVP conversation.
With a banged-up Darrell Henderson ruled out in week 16, Sony Michel was asked to pick up the load. He delivered as he rushed 27 times this weekend for 131 yards and one touchdown. It was the second time in the last 4 weeks that Michel produced over 100 yards. Over the last 4 weeks, he’s now rushed for over 400 yards. Should Henderson miss week 17 against the Ravens, the Rams will be in fine hands with Michel in the backfield.
The Texans were without 2 of their main offensive guys in week 16 with both David Johnson and Brandon Cooks out. Rex Burkhead said not to worry as he had arguably one of the best games of his career. His 22 carries on Sunday were by far the most he’s had all year, as were the 149 yards rushing he had. The 2021 season has been kind to Burkhead as he’s rushed for a career-high of 356 yards.
The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.
Usually, when I get to this section we see the Buccaneers all the way on the right of the chart as they’ve thrown the ball a ton this season. This week we saw a little bit of a different plan. Where they normally run the ball about 30% of the time, they ran it more than 50% of the time in week 16. With the top two receivers out for them this weekend it made sense to change things up a bit. It worked as they had a very convincing win over the Panthers.
Conversely, with the Panthers down almost from the start, they took to the air often. They threw the ball this weekend more than 70% of the time, with very little success. While they threw the ball 43 times, they were only able to garner 251 yards through the air. 2021 has been a struggle for the Panthers at the quarterback position and week 16 was no different.
We saw some dominant performances this weekend. Joe Burrow threw for over 525 yards against a decimated Ravens secondary. That’s over 900 passing yards against the Ravens this year. It’s like Chipper Jones-esque against the Mets. All in all, we saw 11 different guys get over 100 yards receiving in week 16. On the ground wasn’t much different as 8 guys had over 100 yards rushing. This was a fantasy player’s dream this weekend with all the production.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the Week 2 NFL DFS contests!
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please get in the game with a gold account and consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Chalk: Joe Burrow (DK $16,200, FD $14,500)
Pivot: Baker Mayfield (DK $15,300, FD $15,000)
Contrarian #1: Joe Mixon (DK $12,900, FD $13,000)
Contrarian #2: Tyler Boyd (DK $10,500, FD $10,000)
Contrarian #3: Nick Chubb (DK $11,400, FD $13,500)
This is a pretty straight-forward Showdown slate, and I’m leaning toward using Joe Burrow as my MVP based on his ability to score on the ground or via the air with both his WRs and RBs.
I think the most ownership will end up with Burrow as the top guy, though I understand the contrarian pivot to Mayfield or a guy like Joe Mixon – the player likely to have the most touches in this game.
Both defenses are pretty banged up, and while the total is just 43.5, I’m expecting a higher-scoring game. If you have to play a defense in the top spot, make it the Browns (because of their pass rush) and fill in the rest of your lineups accordingly based on that narrative.
I’d steer clear of using a kicker in the MVP slot in this game because we probably don’t need to go there.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Use Joe Burrow as your MVP with no Bengals position players and the Browns DST.
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.
DON’T: Use players with almost no shot of seeing the field, regardless of their salary.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
It’s been over a month since I made a wager on a professional/collegiate sporting event… Yikes. I’m itching to get some action and hopefully (unless you have a gambling problem, then please seek help) you are too.
I would like to let personally invite you to our LIVE NFL Draft show on Twitter on Thursday at 7:30pm eastern. We will be running a contest and giving away a FREE 6 MONTH GOLD MEMBERSHIP! In order to enter you must follow the directions below.
Without further ado, let’s get right into the Win Daily Staff’s 2020 NFL Draft Best Bets.
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