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Jacob deGrom

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 5)

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

We’ve got day baseball! On this fine Wednesday, we have ourselves a 9-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through. As we look at who’s on the mound, we have pretty much every end of the spectrum possible. We have the best pitcher in the game in Jacob deGrom. We have the worst pitcher in the game Patrick Corbin. And we also have one of the top prospects in all of baseball making his major league debut in Grayson Rodriguez. What a Wednesday!

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Jacob deGrom vs. Baltimore Orioles

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Jacob deGrom in the aces section of this article. Yes, the Orioles lineup has been on fire. And yes, deGrom looked somewhat human in his first appearance this season vs. the Phillies. Even though he gave up 5 ER in less than 4 innings of work, he still managed to strike out 7 Phillies. The rough outing isn’t something that normally happens with deGrom and it’s something we have to expect was just an anomaly against a really good Phillies.

This Orioles lineup has been really good to start the year, but they’ve yet to face anyone with the skillset of deGrom. Look for deGrom to settle down in his new home and have one of those dominant performances we’ve all come to love from him.

Pablo Lopez vs. Miami Marlins

The Marlins have been a complete mess against right-handed pitching so far this season. Kent Maeda, a pitcher that missed a whole season, was able to strike out 9 Marlins in just 5 innings of work last night. Through the first week of the season, the Marlins have a strikeout rate of over 32% against righties and have hit for almost no power with an ISO of just .124. Their wOBA so far against righties this season is a whopping .276.

There’s also a narrative in this pick. Pablo Lopez spent the first 5 years of his career with this same Marlins team before he was shipped out to Minnesota this offseason for Luis Arraez. Lopez will surely be amped up today facing his former teammates and I expect him to come out on top. At just $7.4k on DK today, we’re getting a pitching that has as much upside as anyone on the hill today.

Dylan Cease vs. San Francisco Giants

Dylan Cease is coming off a dominant performance against the reigning World Series Champions Houston Astros. In the game, Cease struck out 10 hitters in just over 6 innings of work. His stuff was electric as he had a nearly 35% chase rate. Cease is in the upper echelon of pitchers these days and he proved why in that initial outing. If he struck out 10 Astros, there’s no telling what he can do against this Giants lineup that has a 29% strike-out rate vs. righties to start the year.

I didn’t mention him in my top 3, but I also really like Christian Javier today vs. the Tigers. He should be able to dominate that lineup today.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Patrick Corbin

You guys know the drill by now. When Patrick Corbin is on the mound, I stack against him. More often than not, it’s a successful strategy. Add in that he’s facing a strong Tampa Bay Rays lineup, and I’m even more interested in stacking against him today. Corbin is just a bad pitcher. There’s no way to sugarcoat it. In his first outing of the year, he gave up 3 barrels in just 3 innings of work. A 1:1 ratio of barrels to innings pitched is not a good ratio. The only thing that Corbin had going for him in his 2023 debut was that he gave up a 64% ground ball rate. If that number goes down today, the damage that can be done by the rays is immeasurable.

Core: My core with the Rays starts with Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco, and Yandy Diaz. These 3 guys sit at the top of the lineup and have been extremely productive to start the year. Aroz is my favorite of the bunch as he’s started out the year on fire. He’s in safely in all 5 games and has scored a run in all but the opener. Diaz is coming off a monster game yesterday that saw him go 2-4 with 3 runs scored and 3 RBI. He should continue to have strong games in matchups like the one he has today.

Secondary/Value: Other guys that will have my interest in this lineup will be Isaac Paredes, Harold Ramirez, Jose Siri, and Manuel Margot. Basically, if you’re in a Rays jersey today, I’ll have some level of interest in you. All of these guys mentioned though are extremely cheap considering that matchup. They make for great value plays to fill holes in your lineups today.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Corey Kluber

Corey Kluber is now in his 13^th MLB season. He’s had a remarkable career that has seen him pitch at an ace level for many years. We are now far removed from that though. What we are seeing at this point from Kluber is a pitcher at the tail end of his career. His first outing in the 2023 season could not have gone any worse than it did. In just 3 innings of work, Kluber managed to give up 5 ER and was smacked around for a 55% hard-hit rate. The Pirates’ lineup isn’t at the same level as the Orioles, but they do have some young hungry hitters that can absolutely do some damage against an aging pitcher in Kluber

Core: My Pirates stack will be built around Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds. Reynolds has started out the season strong, with a 1.502 OPS. He’s already up to 4 homers in the young season and 6 RBI. He’s enhancing his trade value and also enhancing the numbers that will be on his potential Pirates extension. I also really like Cruz today. He’s always a risk to get you multiple strikeouts, but he has one of the quickest bats in the game and can absolutely take advantage of any Kluber mistake today.

Secondary/Value: I’ll also have some level of interest in guys like Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jack Suwinski, and Ji Hwan Bae. The numbers for Hayes so far have been pretty brutal. He has just 2 hits in 20 AB. But the positive with him is that he’s putting the ball in play, he’s just been extremely unlucky with a .118 BABIP. At some point those balls will find the hole, could it be today?

Minnesota Twins vs. Jesus Lazardo

The final numbers for Jesus Lazardo were pretty good in his first outing against the Mets. He gave up 0 runs in his nearly 6 innings of work. He also struck out 5 and gave up just a 25% hard-hit rate. There’s a big difference though between the Mets lineup and the Twins lineup. The Mets have struggled vs. lefties over the last couple of years while the Twins have dominated against them. This is a Twins lineup that can really give Lazardo some fits today.

Core: The top 2 guys in this lineup are 2 guys that can really do some damage to lefties. Both Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa had great years in 2022 vs. lefties. Buxton, when healthy, is a dynamic player that can do a little bit of everything. He hits for power and can swipe a base or 2. In 2022, he had a .337 ISO vs. lefties and a .376 wOBA. Correa also had a great year vs. lefties in 2022 as he had a wOBA over .400. Both guys can excel in this matchup today.

Secondary/Value: I also like Kyle Farmer, Jose Miranda, and Christian Vazquez in this matchup. All 3 guys can handle lefties well and are reasonably priced today. Farmer is my favorite of the 3.

MLB DFS Summary

We have a little bit of everything today. Aces and gas cans. Rays will be popular today, but for good reason. They are in a great matchup in a great hitting environment today.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Oct. 8)

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Wild Card edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

What a first day of the Wild Card it was. Phillies had a massive comeback and Mad Max had his worst playoff start of his career. Today’s a new day and hopefully we see some great action.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Jacob Degrom vs. San Diego Padres

Although the Padres bats came alive yesterday, I don’t think it happens 2 days in a row. Mad Max clearly still has a hurt oblique as the spin rates on all of his pitches were down and down significantly. He had just a few swings and misses last night and was essentially throwing beachballs.

Today’s going to be different as Jacob Degrom toes the rubber for the Mets. Although he’s been giving up a few mistakes that have led to some homers against him, he still has a massive 42% K rate over the last month. The Padres are a team that struggles with fastballs. Degrom throws a bunch of them. He should be able to square this Wild Card matchup back up.

Triston McKenzie vs. Tampa Bay Rays

I said it yesterday and I’ll say it again. This Rays lineup just isn’t that good. Outside of Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena, they have no serious weapons. Shane Bieber absolutely dominated the Rays yesterday and we should see McKenzie do it as well. McKenzie, in my opinion, is the ace in waiting in this rotation. He’s been solid over the last month of the season, having a WHIP of .88 and an ERA of just 1.91. He’s pitching really well right now and that should continue today.

Other pitchers that could do well today will be Aaron Nola and Tyler Glasnow. The only concern with Glasnow is that he has just 2 3-inning starts this season after coming back from TJ surgery. We can’t expect him to pitch much longer than a handful of innings.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Robbie Ray

I like the Blue Jays to get this series back to even today in a matchup vs. their old teammate in Robbie Ray. Ray had the finest year of his career while wearing the Blue and White of the Blue Jays. He has fond memories of pitching in Toronto, but those fond memories will be long in the rear-view mirror after he gets shelled today.

The Blue Jays were one of the better teams in the league this year vs. lefties and should be able to get to Ray today. Over the final month of the season, Ray was not overly sharp as he had 3 games giving up at least 4 ER, and his final start of the season he got rocked by the A’s. He should struggle vs. a really good Blue Jays lineup today.

Core: My core with the Blue Jays this afternoon will be Teoscar Hernandez, Whitt Merrifield, and George Springer. I’m going to prioritize getting these 3 guys into my lineups. All 3 smashed lefties over the final month of the season. Springer had a .360 ISO and a .383 wOBA while Hernandez had a .400 ISO and a .388 wOBA. Then there was Merrifield. Over the final month, he had a .444 ISO and a .481 wOBA vs. southpaws. He’s just $3.1k on DK and is a solid value.

Secondary Pieces/Value: Other Blue Jays bats I’ll look to today will be Vladimir Guerrero, Bo Bichette, and Danny Jensen.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miles Mikolas

The Phillies bats woke up late in Game 1 and we should see that momentum carry over to game 2 for the series sweep today. I don’t think Mikolas is any more than an average pitcher. He has limited K upside and pitches to a ton of contact. Over the last month of the season, he had an 80% contact rate and just a 24.5% K rate. Most importantly though, hitters had 8 barrels and 4 homers against him over the 26 innings of work.

Core: My Phillies stack is going to start with Kyle Schwarber and JT Realmuto. Schwarber has absolutely terrorized righties over the last month. He had a .492 ISO and a .468 wOBA. A leadoff homer from today isn’t out of the question.

Realmuto also finished the season strong vs. righties. Over the final month, he had a .300 ISO and a .380 wOBA. Mikolas is a pretty splits neutral player so Realmuto won’t be at a disadvantage.

Secondary/Value: I also Bryce Harper, Brandon Marsh, and Jean Segura. Look for this Phillies lineup to light up Mikolas today.

MLB DFS Summary

Other stacks I like today will be the Mariners vs. Kevin Gausman and St. Louis Cardinals vs. Aaron Nola. If you want to get really crazy and you’re entering multiple lineups, stacking against Degrom can really set you apart today. He’s given up 6 homers over his last 28 innings of work. A ton of Ks too, but the homers are extremely troubling.

Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

3 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Tuesday – 07/06

Marco Morales 4 years ago

written by Marco Morales

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a really big 14 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

This slate is looking to be a really fun slate with solid bats facing gas cans and Jacob Degrom on the hill. There are several different directions we can go and I’ll walk you through the 3 pitchers I like tonight and the 3 stacks I love the most.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

If you aren’t starting your day with Adam’s Starting Rotation article, you’re doing it wrong. It’s hands down the best the article in the business in breaking down the day’s pitchers.

Jacob Degrom ($11.8k) vs. Milwaukee Brewers – There really isn’t much I need to tell you about Degrom to try to sell you on starting him. He is, not arguably, the best pitcher in the game. With all the talk about sticky substances and pitchers like Cole regressing, Degrom just continues to go out and mow batters down.

Over the last month his K rate is sitting at 43.5%. Just think about that for a second. He’s striking out more than 40% of the batters he’s facing. The only reason to fade him today is that you hope another pitcher has a Degrom like day.

Aaron Nola ($10k) vs. Chicago Cubs – I’m looking for a ceiling game out of Nola today. Cubs are a team that can strike out at a pretty quick pace. On the year, against righties, they have a near 27% K rate. In looking into Nola’s pitch mix, he should have a solid night.

Nola’s biggest put-away pitch is his curveball. Outside of Rizzo and Pederson, this is a pitch that the Cubs have really struggled with this year. Even though the wind may be blowing out tonight in Wrigley, I really like Nola’s chances of having a high strike out game tonight. Can’t hit the ball over the fence if you’re swinging and missing.

Jon Gray ($8.3k) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Gray’s been excellent in his last two outings, racking up 15 K’s while only allowing 2 ER. Gray is in my pool tonight because he gets a great match-up against a bad Diamondbacks team. Against righties this year they just haven’t been able to do much. They have a 24.5% K rate, a .131 ISO, and just an 81 wRC+. If you want to grab some of the higher priced stacks tonight, Gray should be your guy on FD. He’s on a roll and he’s facing a bad team.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Jake Arrieta – The Phillies put up a big number vs. the Cubs last night. This almost feels like a little bit of chasing, but it’s 100% not. Jake Arrieta is on the hill tonight and any chance I can get I target him with bats. Arrieta on the year has been really bad. His xFIP nearly halfway through the year is sitting at 5.45.

Throughout his career he’s always been known as a ground ball pitcher due to his heavy reliance on the sinker. His ground ball rate is at the lowest point of his career. What does that mean? He’s giving up a whole lot of fly balls and line drives. Fly balls equals home runs. His HR/FB rate is also at the highest level of his career.

My stacks here will start with Hoskins ($3.2k), Realmuto ($3k), and Harper ($3.8k). Those are the 3 that have had the most success against sinkers. Especially Harper whose ISO against the pitch is .346. Look for the Phillies to put up another big number today.

Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers – It could be argued that Jose Urena has been the worst pitcher in baseball over the past month. Like Arrieta, Urena has been a ground ball pitcher over the course of his career. Something has happened to Urena over the past month. Over the past 30 days his fly ball rate and ground ball rate are almost identical. Both sitting near 40%.

In his last 18 innings of work he’s given up 8 homers. Not only is he giving up a lot of homers, he’s also putting a ton of batters on. His WHIP over the same period is 2.33. You just can’t succeed at the major league level giving up that many homers and allowing that many runners on.

I’m focused on 4 guys here, but the entire team will be in consideration. Lowe ($2.6k), Garcia ($3.2k), Gallo ($4.2k), and Dahl ($2.4k) all have had success against sinkers. They each have ISO’s over .200 and low whiff rates. Gallo is primed for one of his multiple homer games.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Kris Bubic – Bubic is another pitcher that has been struggling. Over the last month he’s been getting hit extremely hard. His hard hit rate is nearly 46% with a swinging strike rate of just 7%. He’s thrown 18 innings over that time frame. In those innings he’s given 10 homers and 10 barrels. If batters square him up, it leaves the park.

With the weather forecasted to be extremely hot in KC later, the ball should be flying. Lots of hard contact and lots of homers for the Reds. While the Reds as a whole have struggled vs. lefties this year, they do have some bats that have shown power against them in their careers.

My building blocks here are Castellanos ($4k) and Suarez ($2.9k) as they’ve have had the most success against southpaws. India ($3.3k) was a late scratch last night, but if he’s back in the lineup today I like him a lot. Stephenson ($2.5k) and Aquino ($2.2k) are also guys that need to be considered if going with Cincy.

I also like the Toronto Blue Jays a ton tonight. I just like the other stacks I mentioned a bit better and fit better with the pitchers I mentioned.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

We have the best pitcher in the business going tonight and that always makes for a fun evening. Look for balls to be flying out of the park in Wrigley, Kaufman, and Globe Life Park.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday – 7/01

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have 2 slates of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. 4 games at 1pm and a 7 game main slate.

Both slates today see some risky pitching options. With risky pitching options comes offenses in some really nice spots. My goal on both slates will be to provide with some aces and some bats to help you get into the green and score a takedown.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Early Slate

The early slate today is a very risky slate. 3 of the 4 games have weather concerns, with 2 being serious enough where this could end up being a 2 game.

Pitching wise you should lock inJose Berrios ($10.5k) and move on. He gets a good match-up against a White Sox team that has been struggling over the past couple of weeks. Yes, they put up a big number but it was against 2 pitchers that probably shouldn’t be in the majors in Ober and Shoemaker.

Carlos Rodon ($11k) is the best pitcher on the slate talent wise but he’s taking on a projected Twins lineup that has only a 21% K rate on the year to lefties and a .313 wOBA. I don’t really like the match-up for him.

Hitting wise we need to be a little different than our opponents as it’s such a small slate. I’m going to do that by looking at the Seattle Mariners against Hyun Jin Ryu. Outside of his 1 start against the Orioles, Ryu has been pretty bad over the past month. His swinging strike rate is sitting at 8% and he’s giving up about 20% more hard contact than soft contact. The bats I’d focus on there are Haniger ($3k) and France ($2.7k).

The next spot I’d look at are the Boston Red Sox against Kris Bubic. Bubic has really been struggling. In his last 18 innings of work he’s given up 8 homers. He’s not missing bats and he’s giving up a ton of hard contact. His xFIP over the past 30 days is sitting right around 5. He’s actually been worse this season against lefties so we don’t need to avoid guys like Devers or Verdugo. The 3 guys I’m most focused Bogaerts ($4k), Martinez ($4.3k), and Renfroe ($3.5k). All three of these guys have ISO’s greater than .240 over the past 3 seasons when facing lefties. They smash lefties and Bubic is a smashable lefty.

I have very low confidence the Yankees/Angles game plays today. If it does, both teams would make great stacks as Canning and Montgomery have been pretty bad of late.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Jacob Degrom ($11.5K) vs. Atlanta Braves – Degrom is hands down the best pitcher on the slate. He has a staggering 42% K rate over the past 30 days with a 21% swinging strike rate. I don’t need to sell you on his talent. My only concern with Degrom is that he hasn’t been going deep into the games recently. Due to injuries he’s had several outings cut short.

The good news is that his arm hasn’t been taxed that much. He hasn’t thrown more than 90 pitches in a game since April. With the Mets blowing through their bullpen in games recently do they give him a longer leash than they have? I hope so.

Corbin Burnes ($10.6K) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – As Adam pointed out in the Starting Rotation today, the spin rate monsters have caught up to Burnes. He’s seen a pretty significant drop in spin rate with his cutter. With that being his main pitch we’ll need to use him with caution. That said, he still has an elite 35% K rate over the past 30 days.

While the Pirates aren’t a high strike out team (their projected lineup today has a 19% K rate vs. righties), they’re also not hitting for much power. Against righties this season they have just a .655 OPS and .121 ISO. Those are pretty bad numbers. Burnes is my clear #2 behind Degrom.

Ian Anderson ($8.4k) vs. New York Mets – While the Mets are getting close to fully healthy on the offensive side, they’ve still been struggling to put up runs. They’ve also been K’ing a bunch. Over the past week they have a 28% K rate. Until they show consistently they are a productive offense, I think we can attack them.

Today we’ll attack them with Anderson who has been solid of late. Over the past 30 days he’s sporting a 3.24 xFIP with a 27% K rate. All signs point to him having a solid outing tonight. He’s not in the same ballpark as Degrom and Burnes, but he’s a whole lot cheaper and provides some upside tonight.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Will Crowe – I’m going to continue playing the Brewers until FD raises their prices and everyone else decides to join the party. They are one of the hottest offenses in the game right now and tonight they get a match-up against a pitcher in Crowe who has been giving up a ton of hard contact.

In his last 18 innings pitched he’s given up 6 homers to go along with just an 8% swinging strike rate. Crowe’s been getting hit pretty hard by both sides of the plate so we can focus on the entire lineup.

The guys I’m focusing on tonight with Brewers will be Urias ($3k), Adames ($3.1k), Narvaez ($2.6k), and Peterson ($2.4k). Hiura ($3.2k) is also an interchangeable part in this stack. All have been extremely productive during this run the Brewers have been on. As a team they have 18 barrels over the past week in just 176 AB’s.

San Francisco Giants vs. Merrill Kelly – Yes, Kelly has been lights out the last 2 games. Prior to that though he had been brutal. With a match-up against the Giants today we should see Kelly come back down to earth. The Giants have been very strong against righties this year with a near .200 ISO and an OPS sitting at .758. Giants should throw out 5 lefties tonight.

In looking at Kelly’s pitch mix he’ll mostly throw a 91 MPH fastball and mix in his change-up. This is a combo that Giants lefties hit very well. My focus will be on Yastrzemski ($2.9k), Dickerson ($2.2k), and Crawford ($2.8k). They are all cheap and have ISO’s greater than .200 to Kelly’s pitch mix.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Antonio Senzatela – There’s weather risk in this game, but it’s Coors and I do want a piece of it tonight. Over the last month Senzatela has been giving up a ton of hard contact. It’s sitting close to 43%. This is something I’ll want to exploit tonight.

He’s been somewhat of a reverse splits pitcher as the majority of the hard contact is coming from righties as they have a 48% hard hit rate against him this year. Cardinals have a predominantly right handed lineup so this lines up very well for them, and very poorly for Senzatela.

He throws his 94 MPH fastball more than 50% of the time. Carlson ($3.3k) and O’Neill ($3.8k) both have ISO’s greater than .300 against this pitch type. Plugging in Goldschmidt ($4.1k) and Arenado ($4.2k) may prove to be tough because of salary, but if I had to pick between the two, I’d side withArenado.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Between the day slate and the night slate we’re going to need to be prepared to closely monitor weather. There’s rain everywhere today and there are a handful of games that are both at risk of a delay and postponement.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Wednesday – 6/16

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have 2 nice sized slates. A 6 gamer at 2:10 and an 8 game main slate.

While we have more pitching options than we’ve had over the last couple of days, some of them aren’t in the best spots and will carry risk. We do however have some clear cut stacks that we’ll want to use.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Aces

Freddy Peralta ($9.2k) vs. Cincinnati Reds– Peralta will be my top pitcher on the early slate. While the match-up is a tough one, Peralta has already proven a couple of times this season he can handle the Reds lineup. He struck out 13 Reds between 8 innings of work in the 2 starts. Peralta has had a great campaign so far this year. He has a 37% K rate this year and it’s not often we can get a pitcher with this type of K rate less than $10k.

Tarik Skubal ($8.5k) vs. Kansas City Royals – At the start of the year, I would have picked the Royals as one of my top stacks. Skubal has really come into his own over the past month and a half.

Let’s take a look at what he’s done over the past 30 days. He has a 38% K rate which over the same period is the top mark of any pitcher on the early slate. His xFIP is 2.73 which is also the top mark over that time period. This was all done against lineups that normally do well against lefties. He’s faced the White Sox twice in that stretch. Facing the Royals is never a sure thing as they’re stingy, but I really like Skubal’s chances of a strong outing today.

Brady Singer ($7.8k) vs. Detroit Tigers – This is far from a safe pick but one that may work in our favor as we try to get the expensive bats in. Tigers are a tough team to get right when pitching against. I thought Minor was a sure thing last night and he wasn’t.

That said, chasing K’s against them is still a thing as they’re striking out at a 27% clip against righties. Singer isn’t a high strike out pitcher but he’s cheap and gives us bat flexibility. If we can get 5-6 K’s from him today and a QS he’ll by far pay off his salary.

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Bats

Washington Nationals vs. Chase De Jong – De Jong has been absolutely brutal on the year. He has a 6.50 xFIP through 3 starts. He’s giving up a ton of contact to both sides of the plate so we don’t really need to worry about platoon splits.

His ISO to both sides of the plate so far this season are both over .300. Kyle Schwarber ($3.5k) has been on a pretty nice run over the past week and with his shift to the lead-off spot will be a main target of mine. Trea Turner ($4.1k) and Juan Soto ($4.4k) also make fine additions to this stack.

San Diego Padres vs. Kyle Freeland – Padres have, for all intents and purposes, underwhelmed this season vs. lefties. While they aren’t striking out much against lefties, they’re also not really hitting the ball for power either.

Kyle Freeland may be what gets them going. Freeland hasn’t pitched much this season as his year started at the end of May. The sample size that we’ve seen this year has been brutal though. In his last 9 innings of work he’s given up 13 runs. For a ground-ball pitcher, he’s given up a lot of homers. 30% of his fly balls this year have left the park.

Padres disappointed last night scoring only 4 runs. There’s a very real chance they surpass that total in the first inning today. Freeland’s main pitch to righties is his change-up. Both Pham ($4k) and Tatis ($5k) have strong ISO’s against this pitch from lefties.

Lefties have also crushed Freeland this year with a .412 ISO and a .582 wOBA. That brings back Hosmer ($3.9k) and Grisham ($4.3k) into the conversation. Look for the Padres to put up a typical Coors numbers today.

Chicago White Sox vs. Ryan Yarbrough – I haven’t gone to the White Sox vs. a lefty in a while but this match-up is setting up really well for them. Yarbrough hasn’t been bad this year. He’s been pretty good and his last 2 outings have been excellent.

The reason I’m going here though is that he strikes out batters from the right side far less. His K rate vs. lefties is 27% but it drops down big time to 18% against righties. White Sox today will more than likely have 9 guys bat from the right side of plate.

Two guys I’m going to try to prioritize are the really cheap bats of Adam Engel ($2.2k) and Yermin Mercedes ($2.7k). While all the righties should be in play today, those guys specifically will help you fit in the big bats from the Padres.

I do also like the Athletics quite a bit. I debated putting them ahead of the White Sox due to the Rays never really giving up a huge number. Canning has been a reverse splits and is giving up far more hard contact to righties than lefties. While I expect the lefties to do well here also, if playing the A’s I’d prioritize getting Canha ($3.5k) and Chapman ($3.2k) into your stacks.

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Wrap Up

Something to always keep in mind for early slates is that lineups could get a little funky. What is a good match-up early, may change to bad match-up once lineups are released. Don’t get married to your lineup until the teams start releasing theirs.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Aces

Jacob Degrom ($12.2k) vs. Chicago Cubs – The only con that I have for Degrom is that there’s a very good possibility he doesn’t go past 6 or 7 innings. With Degrom though, he can put up a big number in that type of short outing. Last time out he threw 80 pitches in 6 innings and still scored 58 FD points. He’s the best pitcher in the game with a great match-up tonight. There’s not much else that needs to be said.

Clayton Kershaw ($10.2k) vs. Philadelphia Phillies – If you aren’t using Degrom tonight, a good second option would be Kershaw. While the Phillies are mostly healthy nowadays, they still have a lineup that strikes out.

On the year they are striking out more than 27% of the time to lefties. With Kershaw not being an ordinary lefty, we know that there is some upside with Kershaw and his 30% K rate for the year. Another thing going for Kershaw tonight is that the Phillies get a serious park downgrade with the game being in LA and not Citizens.

Aaron Civale ($9k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – Should we expect another 67 point performance out Civale tonight? Nope, probably not in the cards. More often than not though, Civale has been living in the 40 point or greater neighborhood this year and that’s probably a more realistic target.

While the Orioles lineup has been hot and cold over the past few weeks, it’s been more cold when a strong righty is on the mound. Tonight we have a strong righty. My build tonight will be tailored around Degrom and Kershaw but if you’re looking to save a bit Civale is a good third option.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Bats

Atlanta Braves vs. Garrett Richards – There was a stretch earlier in the year where Richards looked to be back to his younger self. Since then it’s just been a downward trend in his performance with his last outing being his worst.

That downward spiral should continue tonight with a match-up against the Braves. Braves have been dominant vs. righties this year. Acuna ($4.5k), Freeman ($4.2k), and Riley ($2.8k) all have wOBA’s over .380 against righties this year. If you want to add a cheap piece to the puzzle Almonte ($2.2k) has also crushed right handed pitching, albeit in a much smaller sample.

Houston Astros vs. Jordan Lyles – Astros will probably be the chalk as they get to face none other than Jordan Lyles. Lyles has a near 5 xFIP on the year with a 47% hard hit rate. Lyles has actually been worse to righties this year with a .229 ISO and 50% hard hit rate.

With his pitch mix of mostly fastballs to lefties both Alvarez ($3.7k) and Tucker ($3.4k) should have great nights. On the right hand side the pitch of choice is the slider for Lyles. While I like Altuve ($4k) and Bregman ($3.5k), it’s Gurriel ($3.1k) that I’ll target the most as he’s the cheapest of the 3 and has a .228 ISO against this pitch.

Minnesota Twins vs. Justus Sheffield – I never seem to get the Twins right, especially Donaldson. I’ll play him all week, then when I don’t play him he gets 2 homers. I think I’ll get them right tonight.

Sheffield has had an up and down season so far. He’s had a couple of good outings, but then will have a down outing. There’s been no consistency from him. Tonight he’s taking on a tough opponent as the Twins have been really good against lefties. They have a .772 OPS and a .199 ISO.

Twins will throw out a bunch of righties tonight and on the year Sheffield is giving up a 50% hard hit rate to that side of the plate. Both Donaldson ($3.6k) and Sano ($3.2k) have a bunch of success against the sinker which is Sheffield’s pitch of choice to righties. If you need a cheap bat since you’re going with Degrom, Jeffers ($2k) is still min priced and opens up some salary relief for you.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Wrap Up

Two of the best pitchers of the last few decades are on the mound tonight. Enjoy using them in your lineups and enjoy watching them pitch.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 6/12 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s monster 14-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 4:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The weather concerns in this slate are sparse and minor, and we shouldn’t be concerned about any delays that could impact the pitchers we’re targeting today.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Corbin Burnes ($12,000)

There’s definitely part of me who wants to roster Trevor Bauer, and the Dodgers RHP is certainly worth a look on DK at a discount, but on FD, Burnes makes the most sense as top dog, as he possesses the most strikeout upside on the slate. While some simulations actually have Bauer projected for a higher total tonight (even WinDaily’s model gives Bauer the slight value edge — likely due to the TEX team K rate of 26.8% vs. RHP), the new crackdown on foreign substances has had a detrimental effect on the K numbers of a few pitchers, “Tricky Trevor” included. Burnes, as Adam Strangis points out in his must-read 6/12 Starting Rotation article, is coming off a monster start where he racked up 13K and 70 FD points. He’s a top five MLB pitcher and FanDuel’s scoring allows him and his 18.5% swinging-strike rate (a metric that ranks behind only Jacob deGrom this season) the chance at 60+ each and every night he takes the mound. We’ll have to get a little creative with our hitting stacks to build something we can be confident with, but Burnes is a great option for cash games and I’ll be using him in some GPPs as well.

Best GPP Value: Joe Musgrove ($8,300)

For the second straight week, Muskrat Joe takes our top value spot. He was serviceable in that role last week with a 10 K outing, but he did get knocked around a little bit to the tune of 9 hits and 3 ER — and the pedestrian 5.0 IP kept him from receiving the crucial quality start bonus we need from our SP. Adam and I both like him for today’s slate, and the fact that he’s kept his ERA, FIP, and xFIP under 3.00 in this career year make me happy to recommend him against the Mets. who strike out at a team rate of 23.7%. Musgrove is carrying a career-high 34.2% K rate and limiting his free passes, and the Mets don’t have their usually lefty firepower without a few of their better offensive players. Joe’s unlucky 6/5 start still yielded 36 FD points, and this time he’s the same price and should eclipse the 40 mark.

Contrarian GPP Play: Jameson Taillon ($6,200)

I was actually a little giddy when I saw that Adam was on Taillon as a GPP value play today, because he’s one of the first options I considered when I thought “contrarian play” for this slate. Taillon is effective against right-handed bats and the Phillies (who have a bunch of them) strike out at the third-highest rate in MLB (26.4% — tied with MIA and MIL). I wouldn’t blame anyone for going a little safer with value options like TB LHP Rich Hill ($7,700 vs. BAL), but the Orioles relatively low K rate (20.2%) vs. LHP makes me think he lacks the same upside, value and leverage for GPPs. If we want to stack some of the best bats, we’ll need what Taillon offers in salary relief to get there.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. MIA RHP Zach Thompson

AS of 11:11 a.m. EST, there’s no line yet on this game, but you’d have to imagine that the high-powered Braves offense is projected for 5+ runs against a 27-year-old rookie making just his second major-league start. Thompson’s minor-league metrics don’t jump off the page and the Braves have just too much firepower to worry about using them. Go with Ronald Acuna ($4,300), Freddie Freeman ($3,400), Ozzie Albies ($3,400) and a still-discounted Austin Riley ($2,700) in a four-man stacks, swapping out Albies for value options (and righty mashers) William Contreras ($2,200) and Abraham Almonte ($2,100) if you need the salary savings to get four Braves in your build.

Value Stack: Milwaukee Brewers vs. PIT RHP Chad Kuhl

The Brewers have a bunch of risky but potent hitters in their lineup to go along with the consistently excellent bat of Christian Yelich ($3,800), including Avisail Garcia ($2,700), Omar Narvaez ($2,200), Daniel Vogelbach ($2,600), ~~Luis Urias~~ ($2,700) and Willy Adames ($2,200). Left-handed OF Jace Peterson is also an option at just $2,200. I’m particularly interested in four-man combos that prominently feature Narvaez, Yelich and Vogelbach as a three-man core, with Urias, Garcia, Peterson and Adames alternately making up the fourth Brewer bat. Giddyup!

Update: Luis Urias is sitting this one out.

Contrarian Stack: Oakland A’s vs. KC RHP Jackson Kowar

The A’s are never all that popular as a team stack on big slates, and today they could be in for an offensive explosion against Jackson Kowar, who carries a 54.00 ERA after one career start — a rocky debut outing against the Angels on Monday. The usual suspects are in play here, from “Mashing” Matt Olson ($3,500) to leadoff hitter ~~Mark Canha~~ ($3,700) and a slew of low-priced options including Tony Kemp (just $2,000!), ~~Jed Lowrie~~ ($2,900) and Sean Murphy ($2,400). I’m also quite enamored with Seth Brown ($2,400) as a risk-reward value option, and I’ll be mixing and matching a few different four-man combinations of these six A’s hitters in my large-field GPP entries.

Update: Both Lowrie and Canha are not starting on Saturday.

Other stacking options: NYY RH bats vs. PHI RHP Vince Velazquez, CIN LH bats vs. COL RHP German Marquez

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 6/5 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No major weather concerns, but there’s a game in Coors with an 11.5 point total and two pitchers, one — LHP Kyle Freeland — with 7 BB in 8.0 IP so far this season and the other, visiting lefty SP Cole Irvin — with a .358 career road wOBA. It goes without saying to get exposure to this game, but we’ll give you some other options to consider.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Jacob deGrom ($11,500)

It’s hard to click any other name at SP on FD, even though Kevin Gausman’s last four starts (averaging 52.5 FD points and 9 K per game) have the edge on deGrom’s last four (43.25 FD points and 8 K per game). The Mets ace costs just $300 more than Gausman and boasts a very silly 1.53 xFIP, compared to a still-impressive 3.07 for the Giants RHP. I’ll have shares of both, but deGrom is still deGOAT.

Best GPP Value: Joe Musgrove ($8,300)

He’s much harder to trust than the big dogs, but Muskrat Joe (2.08 ERA, 2.65 xFIP, 11.72 K/9 in 11 starts this season) is a dynamic pitcher who can break a slate. The salary savings allow you to get whatever Coors game stack you want, albeit with a much higher risk. There are definitely signs that regression is coming, as Musgrove’s .212 BABIP is a solid 80 percentage points lower than his career metric (.294), but I’m willing to ride out another start about this pesky DFS darling.

Contrarian GPP Play: Kevin Gausman ($11,200)

Gausman’s numbers are amazing this season, and as discussed earlier in the deGrom writeup, he’s on a helluva run with his K numbers. The Cubs strike out at a 25.2% team rate, a lot more than the Padres (21.1%), so I’m inclined to be overweight on Gausman in GPPs for the additional leverage, as deGrom should still earn more ownership. Again — pricing is pretty soft for some of the high-projected-total games, so the big spend SPs will make up about 90 percent of the ownership.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Colorado Rockies vs. OAK LHP Cole Irvin

The A’s are a fine choice for top spot too, with Mark Canha ($4,200), Matt Chapman ($3,800), Matt Olson ($4,400)and Jed Lowrie ($3,600) being the obvious four-man stack at or near the top of the order. But they are pretty expensive, and they might be tough to fit in some cases with deGrom or Gausman up top. Canha is an impressive hitter who sees the ball well and makes for an amazing leadoff hitter in Coors, so I’ll haver some Colorado stacks that add on him as the primary one-off for OAK, and then find a three-man stack from another game for leverage. For the Rockies, I prefer C.J. Cron ($3,700), Charlie Blackmon ($3,900), Garrett Hampson ($3,300) and Joshua Fuentes ($3,400) against Irvin (who’s given up 24 hits over his last three starts), though there may be some other necessary value plays depending on who starts.

Value Stack: New York Yankees vs. BOS LHP Eduardo Rodriguez

Rodriguez has been very “gettable” in his last three starts, and while the Yankees strike out a lot, Yankee Stadium is getting hot and humid and the wind is blowing out to right center today, aiding some of those power righty bats in the Bronx. There’s loads of value and upside in rostering a three or four-man Yankees stack tonight, with D.J. LeMahieu ($3,000), Aaron Judge ($3,600) and Gleyber Torres ($2,900) as my three favorite “spends” and Gio Urshela ($2,500), Gary Sanchez ($2,400) and Clint Frazier ($2,300) clocking in with serious bargain prices.

Contrarian Stack: Los Angeles Angels vs. SEA LHP Yusei Kikuchi

Kikuchi has been okay in 2021, but he hasn’t been missing as many bats in his last few starts, opening himself up for a possible letdown against the home team Angels and their parade of right-handed power bats, including Justin Upton ($3,000), Anthony Rendon ($3,200) and Taylor Ward. ($2,600) And there’s obviously Shohei Ohtani ($4,000), whose metrics against LHP are a bit down in ’21. But $2K punts Phil Gosselin ($2,000) and Juan Lagares ($2,000) are in play (if they play) tonight, as Gosselin boasts great numbers vs. LHP (.460 wOBA in 26 AB this season)

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Tuesday, 5/25

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a big 13 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

After last night’s slate where the pitching options were scarce, we have ourselves a slate tonight with some of the top arms in the game. This should be as fun of a slate as we’ve had all year.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Jacob Degrom ($12k) vs. Colorado Rockies – He’s back! After about a 2 week stint on the IL with some “right side discomfort” Degrom returns to take the mound against the Rockies. I wasn’t going to bore you w/ the details of what Degrom has done this season but I’m going to. He has a 46% k rate, a 1.77 xFIP, a .6 WHIP, and a 21% whiff rate.

We’re witnessing a generational pitcher and he’s facing off against a team that has struggled outside of Coors. Against righties this year Colorado has just a 69 wRC+ and a .672 OPS. While their K rate is only 23.5%, I’m not concerned with that because those types of things go out the door when facing a pitcher like Degrom. He’s expensive, but he’s the best pitcher in the game.

Corbin Burnes ($10.2k) vs. San Diego Padres – Padres aren’t normally a team we attack with a pitcher. Burnes isn’t a normal pitcher. It’s not often that a pitcher with a 44.7% K rate has the 2^nd best K rate on the slate, but that’s where we are tonight.

Burnes has been an absolute stud this year. He has at least 9 K’s in every start this year while only allowing 2 walks for the entire season. We saw last night that the Padres can be “had” with Woodruff throwing a gem. There’s no reason to think that Burnes can’t do the same tonight.

Joe Musgrove ($8.4k) vs. Milwaukee Brewers – We’ve seen Musgrove have some big games this season. While his no hitter will be the most memorable, his last outing was just as impressive. He K’d 11 and only allowed 2 hits through 7.

For the season he has a near 35% K rate and a 15% whiff rate. And he comes at a steep discount from the clear cut aces tonight. The match-up is really good too. The Brewers have struggled this season against righties. They have a K rate of 26.2% and just a .286 wOBA. Now most of this has been done w/ Yelich on the DL. Even with Yelich back, he doesn’t scare me off of Musgrove. If you aren’t going with one of the top guns tonight, I don’t think you’ll miss a beat by going down to Musgrove.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Brad Keller – .749 OPS, .179 ISO, .327 wOBA, 114 wRC+. This is some of what the Rays have done vs. righties this season. They are one of my favorite stacks on the night. They’re facing off a pitcher in Keller who, while he hasn’t been awful, hasn’t been all that good this year. He’s pitching to a 4.52 xFIP, a high WHIP of 1.84, and a 17.6% HR to FB ratio.

With his propensity to put runners on while also giving up the long ball, it’s a recipe for disaster. Keller’s splits are pretty even against both righties and lefties. He’s giving up about 45% hard contact and an ISO north of .200. My favorite plays here are Randy Arozarena ($3.8k), Austin Meadows ($3.9k), Brandon Lowe ($3.5k), and Joe Wendle ($3.3k).

New York Yankees vs. Steven Matz – After starting out the season strong, Matz has come back down to earth. Well, he’s come back down to the Matz we all grew to know during his time in New York. In his last 5 starts, he has 3 outings of giving up 5 or more earned runs. With a match-up against the Yankees this very well could make it 4 out of his last 6.

Yankees have a bunch of guys at the top of the lineup that all do very well against lefties. DJ LeMahieu ($3k), Luke Voit ($2.6k), and Aaron Judge ($3.7k) all have ISO’s over .200 and wOBA’s greater than .330. Two other guys in this lineup who are also cheap and profile extremely well against Matz’s sinker are Gleyber Torres ($2.7k) and Gary Sanchez ($2.5k). This lineup is way too cheap for the match-up and will help you fit in one of the aces.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Hyeon-jong Yang – A lineup that should do well tonight is the Angels. Vegas likes them too with a 4.72 implied run total. They get to face off against Yang who has pitched to a 5.05 xFIP this season while only K’ing batters at a 17.4% clip. Yang does tend to give up more GB’s to righties but he still has a 33% fly ball rate and with his lack of swing and miss stuff I see this being a tough match-up against a heavy right handed lineup.

My targets here will be Shohei Ohtani ($4.1k), Anthony Rendon ($3.6k), and Justin Upton ($3k). Juan Lagares ($2k) would also be a nice addition to this stack as he is min-priced on FD.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

This has the makings of a super fun slate tonight. We have 2 of the best arms in the business going tonight with good match-ups. We also have 2 of the best pitchers of the past 10 years going in Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer. This should be a pitching dominant slate and if we pick the right bats we should see really nice success.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday 5/09

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a big 11 game main slate on Fanduel and that’s what we’ll focus on.

First, Happy Mother’s Day to all those moms reading this.

Outside of Jacob Degrom today, there’s no clear ace. However, there are a few intriguing options that while they carry some risk, they should carry some reward too. It has the make-up for a fun slate though.

With that being said, let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Jacob Degrom ($12.5k) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – All signs point to Degrom making his start today. Luis Rojas said after the game that he was good to go after throwing a bullpen and also playing catch.

1.39 xFIP, 48% K rate, 23% swinging strike rate. That’s all you really need to know about DeGrom. He’s one of the best pitchers of our generation. If he’s throwing, he should either be in your lineup or a strong consideration for your lineup. I’d continue to monitor his status all morning leading up to first pitch, but all signs point to him being good to go.

Sandy Alcantara ($9k) vs. Milwaukee Brewers – Brewers snapped their 6 game losing streak last night. But they also faced a pitcher that isn’t of the same quality as Alcantara. Brewers for the season are striking out at a near 27% clip vs. righties this season. I wouldn’t call Alcantara a strikeout pitcher, but he’s been striking out about a batter per inning this season.

With the Brewers striking out so much against righties, I could see Alcantara exceeding that average today. Another encouraging sign with Alcantara is that he’s been doing an excellent job of limiting hard contact. His hard contact rate for the season is only 24%. One of the lowest marks of any pitcher going today. When looking at pitchers, I try to find spots where guys can have a ceiling game. Brewer represent that opportunity today.

Nick Pivetta ($8.5k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – Pivetta is rolling right now. Two really solid starts in a row. One vs. the Mets, one vs. Tigers. Today he gets to take on a not so scary Orioles lineup. The Orioles haven’t been as bad as advertised this year. But they are still an attackable team.

Orioles K at a 25% clip vs. righties to go along with low OPS and wOBA. Pivetta’s pitch of choice after his fastball is the curveball. This is not a pitch that the Orioles handle all that well. Look at some of the whiff rates below. Again, I try to find ceiling opportunities for pitchers when they start. Orioles today represent that opportunity for Pivetta.

Some notes on other pitchers. I also really like Tyler Mahle ($8.9k) vs. Cleveland Indians. It’s a great matchup for him. There’s some serious risk in that game with weather and when targeting pitchers, I don’t like that kind of risk. Lucas Giolito ($9.6k) has been performing much better of late, with 15 K’s in his last 2 outings. A strong case could be made for him today. I just liked the other 3 guys better.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Boston Red Sox vs. Dean Kremer – Kremer is relying on his fastball more this season than he did last year. 57% vs. 51%. His fb has been hovering around the high 92 mph range. The good thing for us is that this is a pitch and velocity that the Red Sox tee off on.

Alex Verdugo ($3.2k), JD Martinez ($4.3k), Xander Bogaerts ($3.6k), and Rafael Devers ($3.5k) all have ISO’s greater than .230 against this pitch to go along with low whiff rates and very high hard hit rates. This is going to be a tough matchup for Kremer. Red Sox are my favorite stack of the day.

New York Mets vs. Riley Smith – It’s been a while since I’ve written up the Mets as a stack. They just have a really good matchup today and are finally hitting the ball well. For the season Smith has an xFIP of 5.53, the worst of any pitching going today. He hasn’t really been giving up the long ball much with only 2 homers surrendered this year. But he also hasn’t been fooling batters with a super low K rate of 11.5%.

Smith is a sinker ball pitcher. Jeff Mcneil ($2.9k), Francisco Lindor ($3k), and Michael Conforto ($3.2k) have all had a lot of success against this pitch. While sinker ball pitchers tend to throw more ground balls, the three guys I mentioned all have average distances over 300 feet against it. I’m not as worried about the ground balls from them.

Both Mcneil and Lindor are finally coming around with their bats. They’re still cheap compared to what they are doing and what they can do. Look for them to keep rolling today.

Chicago White sox vs. Mike Minor – White Sox for the season have been superb against lefty pitching. They have an .847 OPS and a .367 wOBA. Today they get to face a lefty in Mike Minor who has a 4.58 xFIP for the season, is giving up fly balls, and has surrendered 6 long balls. This has the makings of a great matchup for the White Sox. Guys like Tim Anderson ($3.8k), Yoan Moncada ($3.2k), Yermin Mercedes ($2.9k), and Jose Abreu ($3.8k) should all feast today.

Other spots I like today for hitting are the New York Yankees vs. Joe Ross and Miami Marlins vs. Brett Anderson. Miguel Rojas ($3.1k), Jesus Aguilar ($3.9k), and Adam Duvall ($2.9k) all could have themselves a day against Anderson.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Weather will be a major factor today. The games in the Midwest all appear to be at some type of risk today. So Detroit, Cleveland, and St. Louis all need to be monitored. Outside of the weather this looks to be a fun slate. We have the best pitcher in baseball throwing and some bats that should tee off!

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Tuesday 5/04

DFSGhost 4 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of MLB DFS: Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 11 game main slate on Fanduel. Due to the rainouts in Chicago and Colorado yesterday, those games were left off of today’s Fanduel main slate.

We have ourselves a Jacob Degrom today! Outside of Degrom there are some other solid options that can be utilized today. There are also some intriguing hitting spots.

With that being said, let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Jacob Degrom ($12.5k) vs. St. Louis Cardinals – There’s really not much I can say about Degrom that hasn’t already been said. He’s the top pitcher in the league. Anytime he’s on the mound he should be included in your lineup, or at the very least, be considered for your lineup. On the season he’s k’ing more than 15 per 9, has a ridiculous 1.39 xfip, a 23% swinging strike %, and 59 k’s through 35 innings of work. He’s a generational pitcher. Cardinals have a near 25% k rate vs. righties this year. He should be in your lineup.

If you are making the decision to fade Degrom today, here are some other options I like.

Nick Pivetta ($8.3k) vs. Detriot Tigers – On Sunday we attacked the Tigers with Corey Kluber. He returned the favor with 10 k’s and 8 innings of shutout ball. Do I think we get a similar outing today from Pivetta? Eh, I doubt it. But I do like his chances of having a strong outing. The Tigers are k’ing at a 29% clip vs. righties to go along with a low OPS and wOBA.

Pivetta’s pitch makeup consists of mostly fastballs and curveballs. Combined, it’s about 75% of the time. Focusing on his curveball, it’s a pitch that the Tigers struggle with. Outside of Jonathan Schoop and Akil Baddoo there isn’t a batter that has an ISO great than .115 against this pitch. Really like the matchup here for Pivetta.

Huascar Ynoa ($8k) vs. Washington Nationals – Ynoa is someone who has gone a little under the radar this season. Outside of one outing vs. the Cubs, he’s been really good. He has a 2.64 xfip for the year through 27 IP, which is one of the lower marks for any pitcher going today.

Ynoa mostly relies on his fastball and slider. The slider is a pitch that the Nationals struggle with. All of them whiff at a rate greater than 27%. This is a high upside spot for Ynoa tonight. No reason to believe he can’t have a ceiling game tonight. He faced this team at the start of the season and threw 5 innings and k’ing 5 while only allowing 3 base runners. Like the spot here.

J.A. Happ ($7.9k) vs. Texas Rangers is another intriguing spot. Rangers are very attackable vs. lefties. With some of the pitchers out there tonight, I just don’t think the need is to go here. Especially with Ynoa at a very similar price point.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Atlanta Braves vs. Joe Ross – Outside of one outing vs. the Cardinals, Ross has been pretty decent this year. He has 2 QS and 1 where he got pulled just before he could get it. I still like my chances here, and here’s why. Ross is a predominantly sinker ball pitching. Throwing it 37% of the time to lefties and 40% to righties. Braves batters all have a lot of experience against this pitch. Ronald Acuna ($4.2k) – .274 ISO, Freddie Freeman ($4k) – .333 ISO, Marcell Ozuna ($3.2k) – .180 ISO, Ozzie Albies ($3.3k)– .237 ISO, Dansby Swanson ($2.5k) – .207 ISO. All 5 of these guys have had great success. Due to pricing, if going with this stack I’m going to go w/ 2-5.

Oakland Athletics vs. Anthony Kay – Kay is making his second start today. His first start, it did not go well. He only lasted three and a third innings after giving up 4 earned runs. The Athletics have done really well this season vs. lefties. Their K rate vs. lefties is middle of the pack at 24%, but they have a .766 OPS to go along with a .332 wOBA.

The A’s will throw out a bunch of righties today. Guys like Mark Canha ($3.3k), Ramon Laureano ($3.5k), and Matt Chapman ($3k) should all feast tonight. Look for another short outing out of Kay tonight.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Eric Lauer – The box score shows that Lauer pitched well in his first outing vs. the Dodgers. The advanced metrics tell a different story. His xFIP for the game was 4.88 and he had a BABIP of .267. 46.7% of the contact he gave up was hard and he had a low swinging strike rate of 8.2%. These are all red flags that mean he didn’t pitch nearly as well as his final line showed.

Lauer in his career has actually been a reverse splitsy pitcher who’s done better against righties than lefties. That said, the Phillies have a bunch of guys they’ll throw out tonight that smash lefties. I’m assuming Harper sits tonight so 1-4 should look like Andrew McCutchen ($3.3k), Rhys Hoskins ($3.9k), Alec Bohm ($2.6k), and JT Realmuto ($3.4k). This is going to be a really tough start for Lauer and I hope the regression from his first start comes tonight.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

This is shaping up to be a nice slate. Because of the Rockies game being taken off of the slate, we don’t have to worry about Coors. Degrom should carry heavy ownership, while bats may be more spread out. There are some weather hot spots in Philly, Washington, and St Louis so you’ll want to keep an eye on those games.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

4 years ago 0 comments

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