MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday – 7/01

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Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases.  Today we have 2 slates of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.  4 games at 1pm and a 7 game main slate. 

Both slates today see some risky pitching options.  With risky pitching options comes offenses in some really nice spots.  My goal on both slates will be to provide with some aces and some bats to help you get into the green and score a takedown.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Early Slate

The early slate today is a very risky slate.  3 of the 4 games have weather concerns, with 2 being serious enough where this could end up being a 2 game. 

Pitching wise you should lock inJose Berrios ($10.5k) and move on.  He gets a good match-up against a White Sox team that has been struggling over the past couple of weeks.  Yes, they put up a big number but it was against 2 pitchers that probably shouldn’t be in the majors in Ober and Shoemaker. 

Carlos Rodon ($11k) is the best pitcher on the slate talent wise but he’s taking on a projected Twins lineup that has only a 21% K rate on the year to lefties and a .313 wOBA.  I don’t really like the match-up for him. 

Hitting wise we need to be a little different than our opponents as it’s such a small slate.  I’m going to do that by looking at the Seattle Mariners against Hyun Jin Ryu.  Outside of his 1 start against the Orioles, Ryu has been pretty bad over the past month.  His swinging strike rate is sitting at 8% and he’s giving up about 20% more hard contact than soft contact.  The bats I’d focus on there are Haniger ($3k) and France ($2.7k). 

The next spot I’d look at are the Boston Red Sox against Kris Bubic.  Bubic has really been struggling.  In his last 18 innings of work he’s given up 8 homers.  He’s not missing bats and he’s giving up a ton of hard contact.  His xFIP over the past 30 days is sitting right around 5.  He’s actually been worse this season against lefties so we don’t need to avoid guys like Devers or Verdugo.  The 3 guys I’m most focused Bogaerts ($4k), Martinez ($4.3k), and Renfroe ($3.5k).  All three of these guys have ISO’s greater than .240 over the past 3 seasons when facing lefties.  They smash lefties and Bubic is a smashable lefty. 

I have very low confidence the Yankees/Angles game plays today.  If it does, both teams would make great stacks as Canning and Montgomery have been pretty bad of late. 

MLB DFS: The Aces

Jacob Degrom ($11.5K) vs. Atlanta Braves – Degrom is hands down the best pitcher on the slate.  He has a staggering 42% K rate over the past 30 days with a 21% swinging strike rate.  I don’t need to sell you on his talent.  My only concern with Degrom is that he hasn’t been going deep into the games recently.  Due to injuries he’s had several outings cut short. 

The good news is that his arm hasn’t been taxed that much.  He hasn’t thrown more than 90 pitches in a game since April.  With the Mets blowing through their bullpen in games recently do they give him a longer leash than they have?  I hope so. 

Corbin Burnes ($10.6K) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – As Adam pointed out in the Starting Rotation today, the spin rate monsters have caught up to Burnes.  He’s seen a pretty significant drop in spin rate with his cutter.  With that being his main pitch we’ll need to use him with caution.  That said, he still has an elite 35% K rate over the past 30 days. 

While the Pirates aren’t a high strike out team (their projected lineup today has a 19% K rate vs. righties), they’re also not hitting for much power.  Against righties this season they have just a .655 OPS and .121 ISO.  Those are pretty bad numbers.  Burnes is my clear #2 behind Degrom.

Ian Anderson ($8.4k) vs. New York Mets – While the Mets are getting close to fully healthy on the offensive side, they’ve still been struggling to put up runs.  They’ve also been K’ing a bunch.  Over the past week they have a 28% K rate.  Until they show consistently they are a productive offense, I think we can attack them. 

Today we’ll attack them with Anderson who has been solid of late.  Over the past 30 days he’s sporting a 3.24 xFIP with a 27% K rate.  All signs point to him having a solid outing tonight.  He’s not in the same ballpark as Degrom and Burnes, but he’s a whole lot cheaper and provides some upside tonight. 

MLB DFS: The Bats

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Will Crowe – I’m going to continue playing the Brewers until FD raises their prices and everyone else decides to join the party.  They are one of the hottest offenses in the game right now and tonight they get a match-up against a pitcher in Crowe who has been giving up a ton of hard contact. 

In his last 18 innings pitched he’s given up 6 homers to go along with just an 8% swinging strike rate.  Crowe’s been getting hit pretty hard by both sides of the plate so we can focus on the entire lineup.  

The guys I’m focusing on tonight with Brewers will be Urias ($3k), Adames ($3.1k), Narvaez ($2.6k), and Peterson ($2.4k).  Hiura ($3.2k) is also an interchangeable part in this stack.  All have been extremely productive during this run the Brewers have been on.  As a team they have 18 barrels over the past week in just 176 AB’s. 

San Francisco Giants vs. Merrill Kelly – Yes, Kelly has been lights out the last 2 games.  Prior to that though he had been brutal.  With a match-up against the Giants today we should see Kelly come back down to earth.  The Giants have been very strong against righties this year with a near .200 ISO and an OPS sitting at .758.  Giants should throw out 5 lefties tonight. 

In looking at Kelly’s pitch mix he’ll mostly throw a 91 MPH fastball and mix in his change-up.  This is a combo that Giants lefties hit very well.  My focus will be on Yastrzemski ($2.9k), Dickerson ($2.2k), and Crawford ($2.8k).  They are all cheap and have ISO’s greater than .200 to Kelly’s pitch mix. 

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Antonio Senzatela – There’s weather risk in this game, but it’s Coors and I do want a piece of it tonight.  Over the last month Senzatela has been giving up a ton of hard contact.  It’s sitting close to 43%.  This is something I’ll want to exploit tonight. 

He’s been somewhat of a reverse splits pitcher as the majority of the hard contact is coming from righties as they have a 48% hard hit rate against him this year.  Cardinals have a predominantly right handed lineup so this lines up very well for them, and very poorly for Senzatela. 

He throws his 94 MPH fastball more than 50% of the time. Carlson ($3.3k) and O’Neill ($3.8k) both have ISO’s greater than .300 against this pitch type.  Plugging in Goldschmidt ($4.1k) and Arenado ($4.2k) may prove to be tough because of salary, but if I had to pick between the two, I’d side withArenado.  

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Between the day slate and the night slate we’re going to need to be prepared to closely monitor weather.  There’s rain everywhere today and there are a handful of games that are both at risk of a delay and postponement.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

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