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NHL

NHL DFS Power Plays Beginning to Breakdown the Return to Ice

Matt Rogers
written by Matt Rogers

What does the ‘Return to Ice’ plan look like for FanDuel NHL?

On May 26th, Gary Bettman announced a ‘Return to Ice’ plan for the 2019-2020 season. Sheesh, Fall 2019 feels like a decade ago! In summary, the season is considered concluded and the top 12 teams from each conference enter a 24-team playoff format. So when can we start playing FanDuel NHL again?

In the first half of July, we saw the upswing in training camps begin to hum for all 24 teams, depending on where their COVID case status is at the time.

Starting on Tuesday, July 28th, there are three days of exhibition games schedule.

Finally, starting on Saturday, August 1st the NHL will begin a four-team Round Robin tournament for top seeding, in two separate cities for each Conference. Additionally, there will be a ‘Best of 5’ Qualifying round for the remaining eight teams.

For a deeper look into the ‘Return to Play’ format, take a look at Zak’s Puck Picks post for The NHL Returns to the Ice details. Also, the NHL Round Robin and Best of 5 Series were announced on July 14th on the league site.

It remains to be season if FanDuel NHL will be available for the exhibition games. Historically, they have not. However, this is a unique circumstance. Though, we do know for a fact they should have salaries ready, soon, for the weekend of August 1st. Get excited!

Where are the Two Hub Cities Located?

According to practically everyone covering the NHL, the two hub cities are Edmonton and Toronto. I suspect, Canada is currently a preferred location as COVID cases are unpredictably flaring up all over parts of the US right now. Canada appears to have a lower case rate right now. So, it likely feels like the safest move for the NHL.

However, it wouldn’t take much for this unpredictable situation to change, quickly.

That said, it is beginning to feel safe to assume our FanDuel NHL player options will be skating in Edmonton, in the Western Conference, and Toronto, in the Eastern Conference.

So, while we’re preparing for the revised FanDuel NHL season conclusion, it makes sense to look at who the top fantasy hockey options are when playing in each area.

I plan to have a series of FanDuel NHL posts focused on the potential fantasy hockey outcomes for this playoff format, to prepare you for your FanDuel NHL plays this summer.

We’re going to start it off by looking at the skaters with the best offensive statistics while visiting each arena.

While reviewing game logs isn’t the most effective way to win fantasy hockey plays, and the opponents defense and game lines are a huge factor as well, it’s also helpful to know who’s most comfortable in each ice location.

Let’s take a look…

Top Fantasy Hockey Plays for FanDuel NHL in Edmonton and Toronto

Top Scorers Visiting Rogers Place (Edmonton) this Season

NAMESEASONTEAMGPPGA+/-
Tanner Pearson2019-20VAN25322
Andrew Mangiapane2019-20CGY25325
Alex Pietrangelo2019-20STL2413-1
Blake Wheeler2019-20WPG23123
Jared Spurgeon2019-20MIN13303
Tyler Seguin2019-20DAL13122
Elias Lindholm2019-20CGY23215
Bo Horvat2019-20VAN23032
Kyle Connor2019-20WPG23301

Note: Data is obtained at Statmuse and includes only those skaters in the Western Conference with three or more points in Rogers Place Area this season.

First of all, looking at this chart, Alex Pietrangelo is an immediate high-value defensive play in Edmonton. Pietrangelo was already having a fantastic year for fantasy hockey, but he is also getting pricey for FanDuel NHL.

If we can afford him, though, he’s a great top D-man play in almost any match-up.

Both Tanner Pearson and Andrew Mangiapane also stick out, not just because they each have five total points in only two games played in Edmonton this season.

Pearson and Mangiapane have often been a solid value play all year, although their salaries, too, were beginning to climb pre-COVID. Still, they should each be at the top of your list when play opens up on August 1st.

The rest of this list isn’t all that surprising, as they’re some of the most well known top fantasy hockey players this past season.

I’d still peg them for your FanDuel NHL top plays list as there’s now a differentiation between all of the well-known top fantasy hockey players in this tournament, in the Western Conference.

Top Scorers Visiting Scotiabank Area (Toronto) this Season

NAMESEASONTEAMGPPGA+/-
Martin Necas2019-20CAR26333
Nikita Kucherov2019-20TBL25234
Ryan Strome2019-20NYR14223
Steven Stamkos2019-20TBL14132
Alex Ovechkin2019-20WSH14221
Lucas Wallmark2019-20CAR2312-1
Mark Pysyk2019-20FLA13302
Brayden Point2019-20TBL23213
Artemi Panarin2019-20NYR13033
Mike Matheson2019-20FLA13033
Brad Marchand2019-20BOS23211
Erik Haula2019-20CAR23212
Brendan Gallagher2019-20MTL13122
Charlie Coyle2019-20BOS23121
Blake Coleman2019-20TBL23300
Anthony Cirelli2019-20TBL23030
Nicklas Backstrom2019-20WSH13031

Note: Data is obtained at Statmuse and includes only those skaters in the Eastern Conference with three or more points in Scotiabank Area this season.

The Eastern Conference list for play in Toronto is amazing for so many reasons. First of all, there are a LOT of skaters with three or more points in Toronto. Some of that has to do with the fact that the Maple Leafs defense hasn’t been tremendous at home…or, anywhere.

Still, it’s quite clear off-the-radar fantasy hockey options like the Canes Martin Necas is clearly comfortable with Scotiabank Arena. Necas had a decent total of 36 points (16 goals, 20 assists) in 64 games this season.

But those are not dominating stats. Yet, in just two games in Scotiabank, he piled up three goals and three assists, for MONSTER FanDuel NHL plays. So, Necas, is a name you need to be aware of for value plays. He’s clearly comfortable in Toronto.

Mark Pysyk jumps off the table as a great defensive play, but unlike Pietrangelo, Pysyk isn’t well known and will likely be dirt-cheap by August 1st.

Ryan Strome, Charlie Coyle, and Blake Coleman are three mid-salary range plays I’ve been using all FanDuel NHL season, this year. However, Coleman was most effective with the Devils. It’s hard to known, still, how he fits into the Bolts lines for this playoff format.

Again, this isn’t a locked list of great FanDuel NHL DFS plays for this playoff format. But, it’s one of several tools I hope to provide you as we quickly march to a ‘Return to Play’ NHL DFS season in early August.

A combination of these pieces of information, should yield you solid returns this summer. Summer…I can’t believe we’re writing about live Fantasy Hockey in the Summer! What a bizarre year 2020 has been so far! Make sure to check out WinDailySports.com for more content in the near future, follow us on Twitter at @WinDailySports, and hop into our Expert Chat for one on one conversations!

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NHL

NHL DFS Opt Outs and Phase Three News

Zak puckpicks
written by Zak puckpicks

Monday July 13th had two significant events happen the NHL. It was the first day of Phase Three, which means training camps have begun for the quest to raise the Stanley cup. As well, 5pm eastern was the latest that players could opt out of playing in the playoffs. A lot of significant notes that could have a drastic outcome on futures bets for these play in series. Here is some of the most important NHL Opt Outs and Phase Three News.

NHL OPT OUTS

A total of six players and one assistant coach have decided not to return to the NHL for the conclusion of the 2019-2020 season. Sven Baertschi (Vancouver Canucks), Steven Kampfer (Boston Bruins) and Karl Alzner (Montreal Canadians) have all decide to opt out, however most of their time this season was spent in the American Hockey League.

Coaches are integral in Hockey, especially during the playoffs. It is unsure what the Florida Panthers will be missing with Assistant Coach Mike Kitchens opting out. He is the only coach to have made the decision to miss the playoffs.

Mike Green (Edmonton Oilers) held a wealth of playoff experience and could have made the NHL’s number one power play even that much better. After being traded to the Oilers from Detriot, Green only played two game with Edmonton before sustaining an injury. As much as Mike Green’s presence will be missed, he never really had a chance to cement a place on the team.

Roman Polak (Dallas Stars) played 41 games this season registering four assists. With Dallas having a younger defensive core, Polak’s experience could have been a value here. Polak is in the last year of his contract and has already signed a deal in the Czech Republic. He has decided not to risk a return to the NHL.

The biggest blow to a team was the first player to opt out of returning to play. Travis Hamonic (Calgary Flames) was a mainstay on the penalty kill and Calgary’s second defensive paring. His strong skating ability and grit will surely be missed. Look for Derek Forbort or Michael Stone to fill this role for the Flames.

Significant Notes from Day one of Phase Three

Max Domi (Montreal Canadians) has decided to wait a week, to see how things play out. He has type one diabetes and is more susceptible to complications with Covid 19. It will not put his mind at ease, as Montreal reported three of Domi’s teammates, tested positive for the virus today. This would be a big blow as Max was a solid second line centre for the Canadians. The Habs are already +163 dogs to defeat the Pittsburgh Penguins according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

Speaking of the Penguins, they held nine players off the ice today. It was confirmed they had come in contact with someone that had Covid 19.

Buddy Robinson and Dillon Dube, were not at the opening day of training camp for the Calgary Flames. This is significant because I believe the depth forwards are a major part of Calgary getting passed their opening round play in series against the Winnipeg Jets.

Chicago Blackhawks goaltender, Corey Crawford was deemed unfit to play today. This will be a big story to watch as Crawford is by far the strongest of the Blackhawks puck stoppers. Chicago is already a +145 underdog in their series against the high scoring Edmonton Oilers. Leaving Malcolm Subban our Collin Delia tending the twine could see a spike in that +145, that DraftKings Sportsbook currently has them at.

In original NHL playoffs futures article, I was high on the New York Rangers to beat the Carolina Hurricanes as a +120 underdog. Today we found out that defensemen Dougie Hamilton and Sami Vatanen will return for the Hurricanes. This in my opinion will make this series significantly tighter, as this pair add defensive depth and a scoring touch from the back end.

Thanks for check out this article on NHL Opt Outs and Phase Three News. For more NHL betting information, as well as all other sports that interest you, sign up for your Win Daily membership. It’s only $0.23 for the month and will give you access to all the articles and cheat sheets. You will also get access to our Expert Discord Chat where you can talk to all the Win Daily pros in person 24/7. Also watch us on Twitter, YouTube and Twitch as we have live video podcasts Tuesday and Thursday at 8:30 Eastern. If you miss it, you can check out those podcasts or many other great interviews and insights anywhere you listen to podcasts. Hit me up on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook at @Zakspuckpicks.

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NHL

The NHL Returns to the Ice

Zak puckpicks
written by Zak puckpicks

The NHL Returns to the Ice

The National Hockey League has been very quiet about what has been going on since the stoppage. With training camps set to start on Monday, lets take a look at all of the things that the NHL, NHLPA, and the players have accomplished in the last few weeks. We will also look at the plans for the upcoming playoffs and how the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) might affect the league going forward. Let’s see what The NHL Returns to the Ice looks like.

The new and improved CBA

The NHL and NHLPA have come to an agreement to improve and extend their CBA through to the 2025-26 season. This is a considerable accomplishment, as 2020 is one of the hardest economic periods that the league has faced. Through the CBA, they have come to a deal that both benefits the players and ensures the NHL will continue operations. The biggest issue with the CBA is that it freezes the salary cap at $81.5 Million, until league revenue exceeds $4.8 Billion. Many league professionals do not believe that the salary cap will increase over the duration of the current CBA. The impact of the salary freeze won’t be seen until the free agency period starts. Teams such as the St. Louis Blues, Tampa Bay Lighting, and Toronto Maple Leafs will have to get creative to keep their groups together. This is especially true in St Louis where team captain Alex Pietrangelo becomes an unrestricted free agent.

There are two scenarios I see playing out as a result of the salary cap: 1) players take short term “team friendly” deal and hope the cap increases by the time the deal is up, 2) competition within the NHL is about to get much closer, as teams with cap space will use their leverage to pry a star player for a fraction of what it would normally cost, or charge a king’s ransom to help a team trade a bad contract. Things will be especially interesting coming into the 2021-22 season when the NHL introduces the Seattle franchise with an expansion draft. However, before any of that, we have a play-in-series and a Stanley Cup to hand out.

Return to Play; Phase Three, Training Camp

After a 142 day break, training camps are slated for to start Monday July 13th. Players that do not feel comfortable have until Monday to deliver a written message to the club to opt out. Travis Hamonic, of the Calgary Flames, is the first of the NHL to do so. Other names to keep an eye on are, Max Domi of the Montreal Canadians, Kaapo Kakko of the New York Rangers, and Luke Kunin of the Minnesota Wild. All three of these gentleman have type one diabetes, which will increase their chances of contracting COVID-19. Players will be tested entering the building as well as when they are leaving. Hopefully we see a decrease in positive testing, even though the NHL has lower numbers compared to some of the other North American sports.

As restrictions lift, some media should be allowed into the facilities. We should start hearing more about line pairings and starting goaltenders during this time. Training camp will be a quick ten day stretch as teams are slated to be in their respective hub cities by July 24th.

Return to play Phase 4; Play in Round

photo courtesy of NHL.com

The play-in-series will begin in Toronto on August 1st with the New York Rangers taking on the Carolina Hurricanes. Some interesting considerations that have yet to be resolved include scenarios such as games going into triple overtime. As schedules are set to have two hours in between games in the respective hub cities, this shouldn’t cause too much of an issue. In rare circumstances it could be problematic. From a DFS prospective, special attention will have to be paid during warmups as media is not allowed to attend the pre-game skate. This means that if there is an injury or omission betters won’t find out about it until thirty minutes before the puck drops.

With all things considered, the NHL should be proud of what they have accomplished with their new CBA, as well as their Return to Play planning. It has been a quiet and slow process, but it has been well thought out and safety has been the top priority. I have been doing a lot of research on these play-in matches and cannot wait to reveal what I have come up with. Hopefully we can all make these hockey playoffs a very profitable time.

Thank you for check out The NHL Returns to the Ice article! I’m just as excited as you are! If you have not already done so, sign up for a Win Daily membership while you are here. Make Bob Gainey, Brian Bellows, Milan Hejduk and Bob Nystrom proud as Win Daily is only charging $0.23 for the entire months membership! Get ready for more betting and DFS articles coming soon! Make sure to hop into our Expert Chat for 3 days FREE!

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NHL

NHL: Handicapping Roundtable Part Two!

Phil Naessens
written by Phil Naessens

The NHL season may be on hold, but Phil “Cash with Flash” Naessens and Zak from Puck Picks are still talking hockey. Join them as they discuss handicapping tips and much more. 

What are the key stats used during your handicapping process?

Zak Puck Picks: As we discussed in the previous post, the last ten games and record against the team they are playing are the first places I look. This is to see a bit of history to see if one team has the edge on the other. An example of this would be when the Calgary Flames lost twenty-nine straight games in Anaheim at the Honda Centre. The key stats I look at is goals for and against and their ranking in their league, power-play goals for and power-play percentage, penalty kill goals against and penalty kill percentage, and when they come out, the starting goalie stats in their latest starts and against their opponent. 

Cash with Flash: My key to hockey handicapping is goaltending and special teams. I use Corsica Hockey for the goaltending and the stats I use are Expected Save Percentage (xSV%), Delta Save Percentage  (dSV%) and Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) are more than sufficient to determine what goaltender I want to support or who I want to attack.

The NHL website for the power-play and penalty-kill units is great and I like to go back ten games and see what power-play units are hot and which ones aren’t. The same for penalty-kill units.  

What was the best lesson you’ve learned thus far this season?

Zak’s Puck Picks: We have heard how important special teams are, but the special team stats are such a big help in determining game outcomes for such a small fraction of the game time. I have also learned how much the team on paper doesn’t mean anything. The injuries to Pittsburgh, Columbus, and Minnesota, and their ability to stay on win streaks have been surprising. I have learned through that to follow the trends and winning streaks rather than the injuries. Coaching plays a big role in the game today.

Cash with Flash: What I learned this season is not to undervalue teams like the Columbus Blue Jackets. I watched them early in the season, saw how awful they were and wrote them off. That was a big mistake because they will likely reach the playoffs and I lost out on several opportunities because I didn’t believe that they were good. 

How important are winning and losing streaks in your handicapping process?

Zak’s Puck Picks: Winning and losing streaks are big. I like to focus more on streaks team vs team rather than individual team streaks, especially when looking at over/under. However, if two teams have played close games against each other current winning and losing streak could give an edge to one side or the other that night. I like to play DFS as well, I like to look at players that are on streaks. Sometimes players like Nathan McKinnon or Austin Matthews, or even goalies like Mikko Koskinen or Jussi Saros can single-handedly win games for a team. Just look back to Leon Draisaitl’s four-goal performance or Mika Zibanejad’s five-goal performance this season. Both of them were on hot streaks going into those games. 

Cash with Flash: The NHL is a team sport and of course we must consider winning and losing streaks. At the end of the day, it’s still about the value and it goes back to what we discussed earlier this week. I’m looking for teams either -150 or below and under +150 so I would absolutely consider a team on a winning streak or to pick on a team with a losing streak but only if these teams provide value. 

What are you guys doing to fill the handicapping void? 

I am taking in as many Podcasts and radio shows discussing the NHL as I can st stay sharp for the upcoming Playoffs. I am also beginning to train for some fundraising runs coming up later on this summer. I am hoping to do a 5km run for the Humane Society with my Greyhound Houston in July and a 10km run to raise money for the fire department later in the summer. I just finished building an office for my wife to work at home and am looking into a computer set up. Hopefully, this will lead to the ability for me to provide more podcasts and video content for faster consumption! 

Cash with Flash: I stick to my three teams for each sport I handicap and continue to journal as much info as possible. Since my entire professional career revolves around the world of sport, I’m taking things day by day and hoping for a speedy resolution to this crisis for one and all. 

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