NHL: Handicapping Roundtable Part Two!

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The NHL season may be on hold, but Phil “Cash with Flash” Naessens and Zak from Puck Picks are still talking hockey. Join them as they discuss handicapping tips and much more. 

What are the key stats used during your handicapping process?

Zak Puck Picks: As we discussed in the previous post, the last ten games and record against the team they are playing are the first places I look. This is to see a bit of history to see if one team has the edge on the other. An example of this would be when the Calgary Flames lost twenty-nine straight games in Anaheim at the Honda Centre. The key stats I look at is goals for and against and their ranking in their league, power-play goals for and power-play percentage, penalty kill goals against and penalty kill percentage, and when they come out, the starting goalie stats in their latest starts and against their opponent. 

Cash with Flash: My key to hockey handicapping is goaltending and special teams. I use Corsica Hockey for the goaltending and the stats I use are Expected Save Percentage (xSV%), Delta Save Percentage  (dSV%) and Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) are more than sufficient to determine what goaltender I want to support or who I want to attack.

The NHL website for the power-play and penalty-kill units is great and I like to go back ten games and see what power-play units are hot and which ones aren’t. The same for penalty-kill units.  

What was the best lesson you’ve learned thus far this season?

Zak’s Puck Picks: We have heard how important special teams are, but the special team stats are such a big help in determining game outcomes for such a small fraction of the game time. I have also learned how much the team on paper doesn’t mean anything. The injuries to Pittsburgh, Columbus, and Minnesota, and their ability to stay on win streaks have been surprising. I have learned through that to follow the trends and winning streaks rather than the injuries. Coaching plays a big role in the game today.

Cash with Flash: What I learned this season is not to undervalue teams like the Columbus Blue Jackets. I watched them early in the season, saw how awful they were and wrote them off. That was a big mistake because they will likely reach the playoffs and I lost out on several opportunities because I didn’t believe that they were good. 

How important are winning and losing streaks in your handicapping process?

Zak’s Puck Picks: Winning and losing streaks are big. I like to focus more on streaks team vs team rather than individual team streaks, especially when looking at over/under. However, if two teams have played close games against each other current winning and losing streak could give an edge to one side or the other that night. I like to play DFS as well, I like to look at players that are on streaks. Sometimes players like Nathan McKinnon or Austin Matthews, or even goalies like Mikko Koskinen or Jussi Saros can single-handedly win games for a team. Just look back to Leon Draisaitl’s four-goal performance or Mika Zibanejad’s five-goal performance this season. Both of them were on hot streaks going into those games. 

Cash with Flash: The NHL is a team sport and of course we must consider winning and losing streaks. At the end of the day, it’s still about the value and it goes back to what we discussed earlier this week. I’m looking for teams either -150 or below and under +150 so I would absolutely consider a team on a winning streak or to pick on a team with a losing streak but only if these teams provide value. 

What are you guys doing to fill the handicapping void? 

I am taking in as many Podcasts and radio shows discussing the NHL as I can st stay sharp for the upcoming Playoffs. I am also beginning to train for some fundraising runs coming up later on this summer. I am hoping to do a 5km run for the Humane Society with my Greyhound Houston in July and a 10km run to raise money for the fire department later in the summer. I just finished building an office for my wife to work at home and am looking into a computer set up. Hopefully, this will lead to the ability for me to provide more podcasts and video content for faster consumption! 

Cash with Flash: I stick to my three teams for each sport I handicap and continue to journal as much info as possible. Since my entire professional career revolves around the world of sport, I’m taking things day by day and hoping for a speedy resolution to this crisis for one and all.