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What’s up ladies and gentlemen? Welcome to our Win Daily Sports Super Bowl LV Value Plays 02.07.2021. This is it ladies and gentlemen. We only have one last chance this NFL season to go out with a bang. During regular season weeks I would usually go into a spiel about how I will list value plays for cash or GPP due to ownership but at this point we are firmly in all GPP all the time territory. This is the final push ladies and gentlemen, there aren’t many opportunities left for the huge win so let’s go for it!

Finding value has a very different definition when you are talking Showdowns, even more so when you consider it is the Super Bowl. I will put a deep play or two in here but it’s going to be near impossible to find you a cheap sub 8 percent play. It’s just not how Showdowns work.

Be ready for extreme variance and to probably tilt your face off at multiple points during the night. Just heed my advice here: Take a breath and don’t be the guy or girl who starts cussing everyone out in discord during the 2nd quarter because your 1.5K wide receiver has zero points. You can go from 1st place to out of the money in an instant and the same thing works in reverse.

***One quick additional note, price is based on flex position***

Win Daily Sports Super Bowl LV Value Plays 02.07.2021

1. Ronald Jones RB, Tampa, $2,200:

This one is a little ballsy with the way things have been trending between Jones and Leonard Fournette but here me out. The man has still had double digit carries in four straight games, the way to attack the Chiefs defense is on the ground, and Fournette’s ownership is going to be ridiculous. If he ends up running for 45 yards, maybe catches a pass, and scores a TD at $2,200 you will be ecstatic. I’m going to be running a few lineups where I swap out him and Fournette and leverage that recency bias.

2. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Tampa, $3,000:

Dirt cheap, playing in the big game, with his favorite guy, in what might be Gronks final hurrah? Now we’re adding in a limited Antonio Brown and Cameron Brate. This is purely a gut feeling but would anyone be shocked to see Gronk catch multiple touchdowns Sunday?

3. Byron Pringle, WR, Kansas City, $1,800:

It’s showdown football folks so we have to dig deep. Of all of the secondary weapons for KC my favorite of the lot is Byron Pringle. Pringle was 3rd in snap share last week. Not 3rd among receivers, just 3rd. Only Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce exceeded his 80% rate. He’s been oh so close to breaking showdown slates all season and it would be amazing if he were to do it in this game. In my opinion I think the stout secondary that Tampa rolls out will double Kelce and Hill the entire game. The result will create more opportunities for Pringle to go ham in the biggest game of his life.

SUPER HIGH RISK COMPLETE RANDOM DART THROW:

Do not use this in your main for the love of god. I just want to give you guys a super deep cut guy who may catch one catch for a touchdown at $200 hopefully getting you over the hump. Not for the faint of heart

4.Tanner Hudson, TE, Tampa, $200:

There is nothing sexy here. If Cameron Brate misses tomorrow Hudson will take his place in the rotation. If he catches a one yard touchdown at 0.01% ownership at $200 he will be the kind of guy to get you over the top and take town a GPP. If you’re doing 100 lineups use him in one or two maximum.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Super Bowl LV Value Plays 02.07.2021. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

This is it folks, the final Showdown slate of the NFL season and although we have two of the season’s laughing stocks going head to head if Washington wins they win the division. What that means for us is that we don’t have to worry about the teams packing it in during the second half. There are however, a ton of injuries to key guys which will more than likely make this an ugly one. But enough talk let’s dig into Stoweby’s Showdown for 1.3 Washington at Philadelphia.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 1.3 Washington at Philadelphia:

Chalk: Jalen Hurts $17,100

Pivot: Antonio Gibson $13,500

Contrarian #1: Logan Thomas $11,700

Contrarian #2: Jordan Howard/Boston Scott, $1,500/$2,100

Contrarian #3 Terry McLaurin $15,000

****Bonus Play**** Zack Ertz $6,900: He has not had a good year by any stretch but he is the ONLY tight end available for the Eagles. My only pause putting him up top is that it isn’t Wentz behind center but if he’s the guy, I’m gonna take a chance.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 1.3 Washington at Philadelphia:

Vegas: 43 Point Total/Washington: -6.5

Weather: Upper 30’s with rain and wind around 10MPH

It has been a rainy, sloppy mess in the city of brotherly love and Vegas isn’t expecting much in term of scoring with a 43 point total. The number that is a little strange to me is that Washington is projected as a 6.5 point favorite. If you have ever heard me and Michael Rasile talk during our Thursday Night Showdown stream you’ve likely heard us talk about how bigger spreads don’t really make a ton of sense in low total games. Don’t get me wrong I do think this will be very low scoring with guys like Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert, and Desean Jackson out for the Eagles and Alex Smith, Terry McLaurin, and to a lesser extent Antonio Gibson being limited due to injuries. My overarching approach in this game is going to be to limit my exposure in any one lineup to your “big play” pass catchers (not that we have a ton) due to the injuries, especially on the Washington side. Instead, I’m going to focus on the possession style, move the chain plays and defenses for my core.

The clear favorite that I think we will see everyone gravitate towards is Jalen Hurts, he provides a floor/ceiling with his ability to run that nobody else can give you in this contest. Of 10 lineups he will likely occupy four of my captain spots. The only other guys that interest me in any way for captains on the Eagles side are Boston Scott and Jordan Howard. I’m not sure which of these guys will get the bulk of the work so it would be a good idea to make a lineup and just but each in that spot so that you don’t miss out. The value provided by both will allow you to go anywhere you want for the rest of your lineup.

The Washington side of the ball is equally as frustrating and in many ways worse due to the uncertainty. Terry McLaurin is my final contrarian play but I really struggled back and forth with whether or not I would put him in there. He is only two weeks removed from a high ankle sprain that takes 4-6 weeks to heal. The field conditions being what they are means that on slip and he is gone. Additionally, if Washington gets ahead early I don’t see them putting him on the field. He is only playing because of the must win situation. I’ll have him in one lineup at captain, that’s it. The remainder of my lines for captain will likely revolve around Logan Thomas and Antonio Gibson. Logan has had 12 and 16 targets respectively in each of the last two weeks and with Alex Smith’s calf injury, Terry’s limitations, and the current weather conditions being what they are I see that continuing tonight. Antonio Gibson to this point is my favorite Washington player. He does carry a Q tag but this doesn’t seem like the same situation as Alex Smith and Terry McLaurin. Gibson has always sounded like this would be play where Alex and Terry are only in due to the scenario.

I do have one more low owned captain thought even though it isn’t listed above. I think this would be a good week to run a lineup or two with one or both defenses at captain. Both teams are dealing with significant injury issues in key offensive spots, the field will likely be a mess, and divisional contests tend to be lower scoring. My favorite of the two is actually Washington’s defense. They have been impressive all season and as dynamic as Hurts is in the early going he has had issues with ball security. He’s only lost one but he has actually fumbled the ball five times in the last two weeks and he threw two picks against Dallas last week. Players who fumble that much don’t tend to stay lucky over the long run.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 1.3 Washington at Philadelphia Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

As I noted above both defenses are viable and given the low score being projected both kickers are firmly in play for a cheap way to get points. Temper your expectations when it comes to your flex plays. Points will likely be difficult to come by.

Washington: Defense, JD McKissic, Cam Sims, Dustin Hopkins, Dontrell Inman, Peyton Barber

Philadelphia: Defense, Zach Ertz, Jalen Reagor, Greg Ward, Travis Fulgham, Jake Elliott

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 1.3 Washington at Philadelphia. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

We are almost at the end of the line folks. Only 8 days days until we find out who our playoff teams are and it’s time for us at Win Daily to finish strong. The fantasy gods have blessed us with some terrific showdown slates and this one is no different. King Henry versus A-Aron, could you ask for anything more in a showdown slate? Let’s not waste any more time. I want to get us in a position to win big this week.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers:

Chalk: Derrick Henry $18,600

Pivot: Aaron Rodgers $17,400

Contrarian #1: Davante Adams $16,500

Contrarian #2: Aaron Jones $14,100

Contrarian #3 Corey Davis $11,700

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers:

Vegas: 54.5 Point Total/Packers: -3

Weather: Upper 20’s with snow and wind around 15MPH

I’m going to start this off by saying that we have seven guys who can legitimately be in the captain spot and I wouldn’t think twice about it. So I will be leaving guys out. I don’t really think we’re going to have a “chalk” play. I think we’ll see the first four on my list above at roughly the same 15-20% range with the rest being significantly lower. This will be a case where if you’re throwing a single bullet out there you would be better off saving it for another contest. You need at least 10 lineup variations at minimum to even get you enough combinations to compete. I’m personally looking at making at least 20 lineups.

Vegas is projecting this to be an extremely high scoring and close contest and I’m expecting Derrick Henry to have his highest touch count on the season in this one given how stout the secondary for the Packers are. The question of the day will be who gets Jaire Alexander and who gets Kevin King. My lean is that Jaire will shadow Brown, leaving Corey Davis as my primary target. But, Green Bay runs almost 70% zone defense and both Brown and Davis can be considered one’s at this point. Alexander did largely shadow Calvin Ridley way back in week four and didn’t record a catch so if you’re looking for a comp there you go. My take on this will be to limit lineups with both receivers. I think one or the other will be shut down when it is all said and done.

I don’t think Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, or Davante Adams need much explanation. The Titans are an absolute disaster defensively through the air and on the ground. We also don’t have to worry about the insanity that is Matt LaFleur’s ridiculous split backfield with Jamaal Williams out. Adams is still getting his 10 plus targets a game. A small but crucial note in showdowns where every fraction of a point matters is that Aaron Rodgers is now running the ball between 4-6 over the last 3 games compared to the 1-2 per earlier in the year.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

With the snow and wind we are expecting at Lambeau Field I am going to be very underweight with both kickers. I would rather take a shot on a $200 salary dart to fit another top guy in than pay 4k to get 4-6 points and have to downgrade elsewhere. I know Aaron Jones will be the guy but I don’t think he’ll get 100% of the snaps so AJ Dillon is worth a hard look as a flex at $1,400.

Titans: Ryan Tannehill, AJ Brown, Jonnu Smith, Darrynton Evans, Cameron Batson

Packers: Robert Tonyan, AJ Dillon, Marquez Valdes Scantling, Allen Lazard, Equanamious St. Brown, Marcedes Lewis

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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Hello everyone, once again the NFL has bestowed upon us another random day of the week to enjoy some NFL action. They have given us a few contests with a number of unknowns that if we can get some clarity on we can give ourselves a huge advantage over the field. As always, be mindful that we are going to have to keep an eye out for information leading up to kickoff. The NFL Week 16 Saturday Slate 12.26 should be a good one so lets dig into Win Daily Sports NFL Week 16 Saturday Slate 12.26.

As always, if I name a player for cash they are GPP’s viable as well, just know I think they will have higher than usual ownership. My projected exposure is based overall between Cash and GPP

Win Daily Sports NFL Week 15 Saturday Slate 12.26 QB’s:

Kyler Murray, $7,500(DK)(Cash):

The fantasy goat of 2020. Not gonna go in depth here. Consistently scores above 30 DK points and he looks to be healthy again. Don’t overthink it in cash.

Tom Brady, $6,800(DK)(Cash)

Only other guy I would CONSIDER is Brady for cash games. I personally will run 100% Murray but if you were inclined to pivot TB12 is a solid option. He has put up a number of duds but his ceiling games usually come against teams who lack any kind of pass rush to get him moving around in the pocket like the Lions. Also, who else on this slate has three number 1 receivers to throw to?

Matthew Stafford, $5,600(DK)(GPP):

If you want a GPP pivot and a little extra salary relief Stafford is your guy. This may be a scenario much like last Saturday where I play the chalk at QB and get different elsewhere. Pairing him with TJ Hockenson and Marvin Jones and running back with someone like Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski for a game stack will provide you with a ton of leverage against the field this slate.

***Note*** I never found a solid answer so I avoided it altogether but if Marcus Mariota gets the nod this week he is worth consideration. His running ability provides you a run dynamic similar to Murray at $2,500 cheaper.

Win Daily Sports NFL Week 15 Saturday Slate 12.26 RB’s:

Leonard Fournette $5,500 (DK) (Cash):

Begrudgingly he is my best point per dollar play on the slate. Another week without Ronald Jones and he gets the tissue paper soft run defense of the Lions. He didn’t do much in terms of yards but he did get over 20 DK points with two touchdowns and I expect it to be an even easier road ahead for him.

D’Andre Swift, $6,400(DK)(GPP):

Bucs dominate inside runners and have all season. One place where they have a little bit of an issue is you outside the tackles style, pass catching running backs. Lions have tilted me on so many occasions opting to continue using Adrian Peterson over Swift but I just don’t know how they can opt to go this route in a game where I’m expecting them to get behind in a hurry. He has finally started to pull ahead in terms of snap count and I expect that trend to continue today.

Myles Gaskin, $5,300(DK)(Cash):

Raiders are a sieve defensively, especially on the ground where they just gave up 150 yards and 2TD’s to Jonathon Taylor two weeks ago. The Dolphins are also dealing with a ton of injuries at receiver with guys like Devante Parker, Mike Gesicki, and Jakeem Grant being questionable with a variety of injuries so I wouldn’t be shocked in the least to see them take the air out of the ball and run it 40 times today.

Don’t Forget: Josh Jacobs, Jeff Wilson JR, Salvon Ahmed, Kenyan Drake, Chase Edmonds

Win Daily Sports NFL Week 16 Saturday Slate 12.26 WR’s

DeAndre Hopkins, $8,300(DK)(Cash):

Best receiver on the slate, not much explanation needed.

Nelson Agholor, $4,500(DK)(GPP):

For those of you who don’t know, the Dolphins defense is legit and they have been since about week three. Xavien Howard and Byron Jones have made this an incredibly difficult secondary to go off on so this is only a GPP play. Nelson has finally shown what people were expecting with the eagles and is on pace to finish the year with over 800 yards and he already has 7TD’s. Those number are pretty solid but when you take into consideration that he barely played in his first two weeks that is down right impressive.

Devante Parker, $5,500(DK)(GPP):

I don’t care what anyone on the Dolphins coaching staff says when it comes to Mike Gesicki, there is no way he will be a full go. When he his the ground last week it looked like he was going straight to the hospital. It was that bad. Unfortunately for us, Parker is also dealing with a nagging hamstring issue so he goes from a cash play to GPP for me. Dolphins may just opt to live on the ground this game as the Raiders are one of the worst in the NFL.

Brandon Aiyuk, $6,700(DK)(Cash):

This guys usage is obscene, the Niners offense is riddled with injuries, and they will need to score quickly to keep up so if you are using Murray and Hopkins Aiyuk NEEDS to be you run back in most circumstances. Niners coaching staff said that roughly 35% of their plays were designed for Brandon a few weeks ago and it shows. He has had 14, 9, 16, and 13 targets in the last four weeks with no signs of slowing down this week.

Don’t Forget: Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, Henry Ruggs, Christian Kirk, Richie James

Win Daily Sports NFL Week 15 Saturday Slate 12.26 TE’s

Darren Waller, $7,000(DK)(Cash)

Not explaining him either. Best Tight End play on the slate

TJ Hockenson, $4,600(DK)(GPP)

I’m likely only going to be using him in GPP stacks where I run Stafford out there but aside from last week the guys has been a lock for 10+ DK points so if you can’t get up to Waller and want a safe option you can certainly consider him.

Rob Gronkowski, $3,600(DK)(GPP):

Brady’s favorite guy at a sub 4K price and sub 10% ownership in against a Lions team with no defensive secondary to speak off? Yes please.

***Note*** I know Kittle is active but he’s been out six weeks so I have no clue if or how much he will be used.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports NFL Week 16 Saturday Slate 12.26. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.20 Browns at Giants:

Chalk: Nick Chubb $16,800

Pivot: Jarvis Landry $14,700

Contrarian #1: Kareem Hunt $10,500

Contrarian #2: Daruis Slayton $9,300

Contrarian #3 Wayne Gallman $13,200

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.20 Browns at Giants:

Vegas: 44.5 Point Total/Browns: -6.5

Weather: Mid/Upper 30’s, light wind

With Colt McCoy expected to take the helm once again Vegas is projecting this to be a messy, low scoring struggle with the Browns getting ahead early. Once thing that is strange with this one is the – 6.5 for the Browns. I know the Giants defense is underrated but there isn’t a defense in the league that can hold up to two pro bowl caliber running backs for 4 quarters when they don’t have an offense that can give them at least a little bit of a breather. That number feels like it should be at least -7.5 and at some point the Giants front seven will get worn out leaving Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt plenty of room to run free so it should be no surprise this I think Chubb will be big chalk and Hunt his my first contrarian captain play. This thought process also dictates my pivot of Jarvis Landry. He’s been playing great football since OBJ went down. He catches everything under the sun and he’s even good to throw a touchdown every so often. The front seven is legit but New Yorks clear defensive weakness is the secondary. There just isn’t anyone back there who can stop Landry. I know we gave the Browns a hard time when it comes to the passing game but in several of those duds they were dealing with some of the worst wind I can recall seeing so I’m praying that a little of that still lingers in the back of peoples minds. While I don’t think the Giants will get much done offensively I do like Darius Slayton against the soft Cleveland secondary. Denzel Ward is a bit of a concern but the Browns play about 70 percent zone defense so the deep post, bunch formations, and double moves a perfect for Slayton to break one or two open downfield. You guys should know by now that I love Slayton against a Cover-2 Zone concept. With Evan Engram dealing with a calf issue Slayton is the clear preferred target for Colt. Wayne Gallman is the only other Giant I would consider at Captain due to McCoy’s tendency to check down and Gallman has proven himself to be a versatile back who can be used in any game script. Did I mention he has had double digit DK point outings in seven straight?

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.20 Browns at Giants Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

If you are playing onslaught scripts both defenses are in play. The Giants can get to the QB causing Baker issues potentially an I just talked at length about how bad the Giants offense is. Low wind so both kickers are in play also. I’m going to list him below but be cautious with Evan Engram. He typically does poorly with soft tissue injuries and I don’t see him finishing this game. Austin Hooper is also I’m concerned with while he’s dealing with a neck issue. Keep an eye on Marvin Hall’s status everyone. If he plays for the Browns tonight that is your potential min price slate breaker!

Giants: Defense, Sterling Shepperd, Golden Tate, Evan Engram (Q, calf), Alfred Morris (eww), Dion Lewis (eww), Graham Gano

Browns: Defense, Rashard Higgins, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Austin Hooper (Q, neck), Cody Parkey, Harrison Bryant, Marvin Hall (verify active)

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.20 Browns at Giants. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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What’s up ladies and gentlemen? Welcome to Win Daily Sports Week 15 Value plays for 12.20. We are winding down for the regular season and most of us are close to wrapping up our playoff runs in seasonal. Oddly enough in a season where we had to stay next to our lineups like you would in the NBA, we don’t have a ton of options in what I would consider values per my definition. Guys like Russell Gage, Emmanuel Sanders, and Christian Kirk are guys that I would consider value, but they are a few hundred outside of my definition but I wanted you to know that they were options.

Typically I define “value plays” as players that fall within $1,000 dollars of minimum price for their given position. If may vary by one or two hundred week to week but most will fall in that range.

1. Tre’Quan Smith, WR, Saints $3,200 (DK)/$5,000(FD)

With the return of Drew Brees and Michael Thomas’s ankle issues putting him back on the IR, Smith becomes one of the best value wide receiver options that we have available on the slate. I know everyone is worried about Drew’s ribs but let me phrase it this way. The Saints have clinched playoff berth, they’re playing a non divisional opponent, Hill has performed well enough to win football games, and the ribs at this point are more about pain management than whether or not the fractures have healed.

Brees is an iron man and has played through multiple injuries and performed well. With Brees and absent Thomas Tre hung around 10 DK points every week with a ceiling game of 21.4 point against Detroit in week 4. While so many are scared to use Brees and plan to opt for Kamara I’ll have a couple of stacks with all three giving me plenty of salary to run it back with whoever I want from the Chiefs. I’ll have some Emmanuel Sanders as well but he falls outside of my definition of value player for the purpose of this article.

2. Dwayne Haskins QB, Washington $5,000(DK)/$6,500(FD)

It isn’t very often that a starting Quarterback will one, fall into the value category that I have defined and two, is in the kind of matchup that I think they can take advantage of. I’d be a bit nervous using him in a cash game scenario but stacking someone like him, JD McKissick, and Terry McLaurin will allow you a decent amount of flexibility in a GPP contest.

To be honest, my bigger concern here is how Seattle has struggled against teams with strong front sevens. Teams like the Giants and Rams got into Russell Wilson’s face so quickly and so often that not even he could escape and make something happen. Not saying Washington is good, but they have pieces so may get a little lucky and see some sneaky shootout potential here.

3. Cole Kmet, TE, Bears, $3,000 (DK)/$5,100(FD)

I would have been recommending Kmet regardless of whether or not Jimmy Graham had the Q tag put on him. He surpassed Jimmy weeks ago and has seen at least a 70% snap share in the last four weeks and saw his highest rate of 85% last week and he’s seen seven targets in each of the last two weeks. To have him priced at 3k feels down right disrespectful and if he had a competent QB I could see him around 4k. But it is what it is. If they want to give me value to fit King Henry and Kamara in all of my lineups than I’ll gladly take it.

4. Leonard Fournette, RB, Buccaneers, $4,500(DK)/$5,500(FD)

I shouldn’t need to explain this one. No RoJo and they are playing Atlanta. Chalk city.

Also Consider: Greg Ward, Peyton Barber, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Michael Gallup

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports NFL Value Plays For 12.20 Main Slate. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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Good evening everyone, once again the NFL has bestowed upon us a random day of the week to enjoy some NFL action and they have given us a couple of contests that are actually fantastic for GPP plays and leverage points that we can take advantage of. As always be mindful that we are going to have to keep an eye out for injury information leading up to kickoff. The NFL Week 15 Saturday Slate 12.19 should be a good one allowing for a few different build types depending on the injuries.

NFL 2020 has essentially turned into the NBA when it comes to injury information. I’m not going to drivel on much longer about that, I’m going to go ahead and hop into my favorite plays for this slate. I’ll identify in what format I like each of these plays in.

With a two game slate you need to pay closer attention to script in the same way that you would with a showdown slate. Not to say you don’t with a full slate but it just moves up in my priority list and it allows me to put some lower owned plays that could separate you from the field that may not always be a good play in a full slate. Lets dig into Win Daily Sports NFL Week 15 Saturday Slate 12.19.

As always, if I name a player for cash they are GPP’s viable as well, just know I think they will have higher than usual ownership. My projected exposure is based overall between Cash and GPP

Win Daily Sports NFL Week 15 Saturday Slate 12.19 QB’s:

Josh Allen $7,200 (DK): (Cash*but read full explanation*)

Due to the slight decrease in price over Aaron Rodgers, the running upside, the matchup against a Swiss cheese Denver defense, and the potential chip on Buffalo’s shoulder from some statements made by an individual within the ESPN organization (I won’t expand here but it is easy to find) it doesn’t surprise me at all that Josh Allen will potentially exceed 40% in ownership in this two game slate. I will have a GPP pivot but in a lot of instances I’ll likely eat the chalk and get weird elsewhere.

The Steelers stout defense did hold him to around 19.8 DK points but there were a number of missed opportunities, and against middling defenses like the Broncos he usually goes ham for 30+ points and to this point he’s averaging 27.5 DK points in away games so his splits are slightly positive compared to his home appearances.. You can go Rodgers here if you wanted to but I really think Allen needs to be your guy in cash. Expected Ownership 40-45% My projections (Ceiling): 35-37 DK points. My exposure, 60-70%

Drew Lock $5,000 (DK) (GPP):

As I stated above with Allen. I do not really care about the ownership. But the Bills are susceptible to big plays so I will be stacking this game from the other side with Drew Lock as my QB in small doses. Of 10 lineups I would have seven with Allen and three with Lock. He’s not a great QB by any stretch but his garbage time production is real. Last week Lock got it together and threw for 280 and four TD’s against the Panthers. The Panthers for all of their issues have shown flashes of having a decent defensive secondary.

If the Broncos screw up and turn the ball over early and get behind we can see the Broncos completely abandon the run early and watch Drew throw bombs for two and a half quarters. Expected Ownership 6-8% My projections (Ceiling): 25-28 DK points. My exposure 20-30%

Win Daily Sports NFL Week 15 Saturday Slate 12.19 RB’s:

Mike Davis $6,500 (DK) (Cash)

The Packers are top half in the league in basically every single QB pressure metric in the NFL and the Panthers are a little dinged up on the offensive line. Teddy Bridgewater may find himself running a little more than usual tomorrow.

There is one thing that he is going to have a problem with regardless, finding an open receiver with all of the secondary talent that the Packers have at their exposure. Jaire Alexander, Kevin King, and Safety Darnell Savage are no slouches. I’m expecting a heavy dose of Mike Davis attacking the week run defense and the short passing game. This is where the Panthers can actually get some consistent ball movement to keep this was within a decent margin.

Davis had a rough stretch where he barely exceeded 8 DK points for 5 week in a row. He finally got himself back on track against the Broncos last week with a nice 25 point outing. I’d expect him to get somewhere around 8 targets tomorrow (if not more) to go along with at least 15 carries. Expected ownership 60-65%, My Projections (Ceiling) 20-23 DK Points. My exposure 40-45%.

Aaron Jones $7,300 (DK) (Cash)

Aaron Jones is great, we all know what he brings to the table and the Panthers can’t spot anyone on the ground so no need to go further. Only concern as he is still in a 55-45% time share with Jamal Williams. If you can tolerate that, he needs to be considered in your lineups. He’s a beast. Expected Ownership 70%. My Projections (Ceiling) 25-28 DK points. My exposure 30-35% (I’m personally going underweight to avoid the usage headache but he can go nuts even in a timeshare.)

Melvin Gordon $5,200 (DK) (GPP)

If Gordon is good to go Fangio seems to be figuring out that Gordon is a better running back than Philip Lindsay. Hopefully they saw the game against the Chiefs where Gordon gashed them for 131 yards while averaging 8.7 YPC while Lindsay got 26 yards on 1.9 YPC. Gordon clearly need to be the guy.

In a negative game script which we will likely get, he is better suited being the pass catcher of the two. If people are still telling you Lindsay is the pass catching back block them now because they aren’t paying attention. Look up his stats this year. He’s caught two passes all season. Gordon will actually be a GPP pivot when I choose to leave Jones out of my roster. His ownership is a touch high, but it’s still 30% less than Jones. He also the get the same amount of work so I like the leverage it provides. Expected Ownership 40-45% My projections (Ceiling) 18-22 DK points. My Exposure 40-45%

Don’t Forget: Jamal Williams (Great low owned Aaron Jones pivot), Devin Singletary, Zach Moss

Win Daily Sports NFL Week 15 Saturday Slate 12.19 WR’s

Davante Adams $9,400 (DK) (Cash):

If you can afford him you play him. I don’t need to explain what he brings to the table. He’ll be high owned, with a high ceiling, and I’ll have a lot of him. Moving on.

Stefon Diggs $7,900 (DK) (Cash)

Like Adams, it’s Diggs. I shouldn’t need to explain him at this point.

Curtis Samuel $4800 (DK) (GPP):

Please watch his injury designation closely, he came down late with a hamstring issue. He’s here for me for a GPP play for the same reason Mike Davis is. The short passing game, his roll in the running game, and the lack of CMC. I’m not going to put any projections for him because we don’t know what his deal is yet so we need to watch before we make any decisions.

Jerry Jeudy $3,900 (DK) (GPP):

I think this is gonna be Jeudy’s 2nd coming out party. He’s had an a lot of struggles with drops this year, but as you could see above where I touted Drew Lock, those passes downfield are going someone! In the event that he is matched up man against Levi Johnson, he will be able to burn him and catch more than a few deep passes.

If the Bills manage to get up two score I think we’re looking at a situation where Jeudy could get between 8-10 targets. If they connect, I can see this being his highest output game of the season. Even in situations where I don’t use Lock as my QB Jeudy will largely be the guy I run back my Bills stack with. Expected Ownership 18-20%. My Projections (Ceiling) 22-25 DK points

Don’t Forget: Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Allen Lazard, Tim Patrick, KJ Hamler, DJ Moore, Robbie Anderson

Win Daily Sports NFL Week 15 Saturday Slate 12.19 TE’s

Robert Tonyan $4500 (DK), Noah Fant $3,800 (DK)

I’m not going to recommend any other tight ends. If you want to use a dart throw have at it but I’m not going there. Get different elsewhere in my opinion.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports NFL Week 15 Saturday Slate 12.19. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.13 Steelers at Bills:

Chalk: Josh Allen $18,300

Pivot: Ben Roethlisberger $16,200

Contrarian #1: Dionte Johnson $13,500

Contrarian #2: Stefon Diggs $15,000

Contrarian #3 James Conner $12,000

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.13 Steelers at Bills:

Vegas: 48.5 Point Total/Bills: -1.5

Weather: Mid 30’s Wind less than 10MPH

After last week’s monster performance I would be surprised if anyone besides Josh Allen was the big chalk this evening. Given the Steeler’s recent poor performances it would appear that a little shine has disappeared from that Steelers defense. While the Steelers did look like hot garbage against Washington they have a habit of playing up or down to whatever level of competition they are facing and that has been the trend all season. So while others are expecting the Bills to roll I’d rather pivot over to Ben Roethlisberger for 2k less at captain and play for a bounce back.

Big Ben doesn’t have poor road splits this season and may come in at a hair lower in terms of ownership due to old habits. Dionte Johnson when healthy is Ben’s favorite target seeing 62 targets in the last five games and when healthy you can lock in a minimum of 10 targets and in three of the last four he’s exceeded 21 DK points.

On the Bills side of the ball I’d be crazy not to mention Stefon Diggs as a viable captain option as the teams clear number one option and John Brown still on the IR almost guaranteeing him double digit targets and 30+ DK point upside. Lastly there is one thing that has been missing over the last few weeks while the Steelers have seemed to sputter at times offensively. I know none of us want to play him but the offense runs better when James Connor is on the field and I’m sure Mike Tomlin is thinking the same.

Everyone who clamored all year for Benny Snell to take over the starting job got their chance and he was underwhelming. I have no problems putting a couple of lineups out there running a script where Connor takes over this game at the end in a scenario where Allen lays a dud and he get’s a td or two on the ground to finish things up.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.13 Steelers at Bills Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

As usual you can consider both kickers in the flex for cheap access to points but with a 48.5 point total I would lean with no more than one defense in any line and I would keep it as a flex.

Bills: Cole Beasley, Devin Singletary, Gabriel Davis, Zach Moss, Dawson Knox, Defense, Tyler Bass

Steelers: Juju Smith-Shuster, Chase Claypool, Eric Ebron, Defense , Chris Boswell

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.13 Steelers at Bills. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

0 comments
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NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.10 Patriots at Rams:

This will be one of the longer Showdown articles I do this season just due to how much of an enigma both teams can be. Instead of putting all of my plays in a single paragraph I want to break this one down by scenarios so that you can more clearly see your path based on which script you want to go with in a given lineup. The range of outcomes is massive with each team playing great and horrible football from one week to another so your player pool overall will be larger than usual but at the same time it will be very narrow based on the script you choose.

Chalk: Cam Newton $15,900

Pivot: Cooper Kupp $14,400

Contrarian #1: Cam Akers $12,000 (See Scenario 2)

Contrarian #2: Damien Harris $13,200 (See Scenario 2)

Contrarian #3: Either Defense ($6,600 Rams/$6,300 Patriots) (Depending on your script)

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.10 Patriots at Rams:

Vegas: 45 Point Total/Rams: -5

Weather: It’s LA, we’re good.

Scenario 1: Vegas Script

We should start our showdown builds on most nights with what Las Vegas is projecting. They are the OG’s of sports betting and they are right more often than not. The expectation is the Rams will win this one close and the total score is low enough for you to expect the offenses to struggle a bit.

In this script and overall I would expect the chalk to fall to Cam Newton for two reasons. First, with the exception of Jakobi Myers there is no one else outside of a dart throw that gets consistent work in the air. That leaves Cam and Damien Harris as the only reasonable options at captain for New England in your main builds. Second, no matter the issues in the air he still maintains pretty consistent value with what he can do on the ground.

On the other side of the ball in this scenario the trick is figuring out who Bill Belichick is going to choose to shut down. With Goff not being a runner, I would keep him as a flex option in a lower total game. My lean is that he’ll try to shut down Robert Woods. The snap count has been decreasing for Cooper Kupp in favor of more two tight end sets and the expanded roles of Josh Reynolds and Van Jefferson recently. The upside is still there for Kupp so he would be my choice in this situation.

Scenario 2: Bad Cam Shows Up

Here comes the Cam slander as one of our subscribers likes to say. He has put up some of the worst QB numbers of his career this season and actually played badly enough to get benched in week seven where he put up 2.82 DK points.

The way this happens is a combination of two things. The Rams defense has a few big plays early on, the offense scores a couple of early touchdowns and the Patriots will be unable to hide Cam with the run game. In this situation we are talking about a 5-1 or 4-2 build in favor of the Rams. In most cases you want to target the trailing team but when it goes bad for the Patriots this year nobody produces with the exception of someone like James White.

If you are running a huge number of lineups take a handful of shots on him at captain. In two of our three game scripts White would be the preferred running back do to the passing game work. His ceiling looks to be limited at around 15 points in a PPR format this season but he still looks capable of his 25+ point upside games. In this scenario you can either run with a WR like Kupp if you think the quick scores come from him in or you can go with a back like Cam Akers in the captain spot.

Akers finally had his first game with more than 20 carries and it looks like he may be the guy but this feels like a bit of a trap as I mentioned in discord. He’s never had double digit touches in back to back weeks, he was limited in practice this week logging only one full practice, we’re on a short week, and Malcom Brown and Darrel Henderson only saw a 16% and 23% snap share respectively on Sunday. It wouldn’t surprise me if they kept the snap count low so they would be fresh on Thursday. So although it looks like it is Cams job now, I will be running some lineups with Henderson and Brown at captain in this scenario.

Scenario 3: Bad Goff shows up

I’m not just slandering cam today, Jared Goff has had his share of terrible games over the last two seasons. Just two weeks ago against the 49ers he put up a dud with a 6.02 DK outing. He has a difficult time against exotic looks and we know Bill has a huge playbook to pull from in that regard. The Pats have also really stepped up on the defensive side of the ball even after losing the majority of their defensive stars in the offseason.

In this scenario we have three primary captains we should look at, Cam Newton, Patriots defense, and Damien Harris. It looks like Bill is toning town the RBBC scheme that has driven us crazy and the scenarios on which to use is pretty straightforward. If the wheels fall of for the Rams we could cross off most of the players sans Matt Gay (Questionable) and Cooper Kupp. Goff struggled against the more exotic looks in week 8 against the Dolphins and Cooper Kupp got 20 targets in the process. He will always be his safety blanket. As a flex option only, I would also not be against some Sony Michel in this situation. He got about 10 carries in the blowout against the Chargers. He could have gotten more but instead they decided to roll out Jakob Johnson so I wouldn’t expect much more than that due to his injury history (hope that statement doesn’t come back to bite me).

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.10 Patriots at Rams Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

Kickers in low scoring games are firmly in play and with the way both offenses struggle at times you could see a number of long field goal attempts. Also with the recent increase in return touchdowns if you choose to go with a defense at captain going with the return man has become a good low owned option and an attempt to double dip on DraftKings. Another thing that you really need to consider when choosing flex’s.

Both the Patriots and Rams have a secondary where they can shut the primary receiver down. I could be completely off base and they chose to shut down Goff other than Woods but it is no secret that Jakobi Meyers is the only receiver who poses any threat so if Ramsey gives anyone the shadow treatment it will be him so I will likely be underweight on him.

Rams: Jared Goff, Matt Gay, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee, Gerald Everette, Josh Reynolds, Malcom Brown, Darrel Henderson, Van Jefferson

Patriots: Jacoki Meyers, James White, Gunner Owlzewski (Returner, DK Only), Damiere Byrd, Sony Michel, Donte Moncreif (only large field GPP’s as a last option)

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.10 Patriots at Rams. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

0 comments
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NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

Week 13 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.8 Dallas at Baltimore:

I’ve been trying to get a little more unique in some of my pivots over the last several showdowns and to this point we have found ourselves in good position at the end of the game. We all know who big chalk in this game. Lamar Jackson’s ownership in the captain spot is likely to get close to 30%. It is for very good reason though. The Cowboys are an absolute mess defensively and this might get out of hand quickly.

Chalk: Lamar Jackson $17,400

Pivot: JK Dobbins $12,900

Contrarian #1: Marquise Brown $10,800

Contrarian #2: Baltimore Defense $8,700

Contrarian #3: CeeDee Lamb $9,900

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.8 Dallas at Baltimore:

***For those who like narratives: Dez Bryant “revenge game”. He says it is water under the bridge but I do not really believe him.

Vegas: 45 Point Total/Ravens: -8

Weather: Upper 30’s, 8-10 MPH Wind

Vegas is telling us to to expect a pretty solid beatdown with the Ravens projected as 8 point favorites with a 45 point total. I don’t plan on giving Dallas that much credit. The Ravens blitz on almost 43% of their plays this season, Andy Dalton is terrible under pressure, and now Zack Martin is on the IR. I think the Ravens are going to have a field day. With that being said, you know we always say run 10 lines in showdown. You should have one or two under the expectation that Dallas has a solid day. We just saw the Pittsburgh lose to Washington. Anything can happen in showdown.

No need to explain Lamar Jackson at captain against this defense. JK Dobbins should be pretty self explanatory as well. Three of the last four weeks he has gotten no less that 14 touches which, for this overloaded backfield, is about as good are you’ll get without an injury or two. He is also the most well rounded back for Baltimore so in the freak occurrence that the Raven get behind he still gets used in the passing game.

If there is any game that Lamar Jackson and Marquise Brown could completely click and dominate this would be the one. While everyone like to bag on the Cowboy’s offense (deserved, good job McCarthy), the defense is even worse. They’ve given up 31 or more points in seven of their 11 games this year and have yet to hold a single opponent to under 20 points, and even that was week 1. As a reminder, they play the Giants, Eagles, and Washington twice a year…

Remember what I said about the Ravens blitz rate and The Red Water Pistol? This is the first and likely only time this season I will recommend a defense at the captains spot outside of just a random MME dart throw. I would be surprised if they didn’t get multiple sacks, multiple picks, and a pick 6.

Now that I said all of that we can expect the Cowboys to prove me wrong on every front so for my final pivot I’ll give you my favorite Cowboy. It’s not Zeke, he’s been garbage with Mike McCarthy as the head coach and that will not change. We need confirmation of 10 defensive players and their respective ailments. If either Jimmy Smith, Tramon Williams, or
Davontae Harris miss in the secondary they will not have the numbers to cover all three of the Cowboys receivers. Not to mention Safeties Chuck Clark and DeShon Elliott are questionable with injuries as well.

If the Cowboys can protect Dalton I think CeeDee Lamb going across the middle of the field will be dangerous proposition. The Ravens are deep in terms of physical talent in the secondary but where they will have a problem is communicating in confusing situations like heavy motion, bunch routes, and crossing routes. Do I think It’ll happen? No. But when playing in showdown you have to cover all of your bases

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.8 Dallas at Baltimore Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

Both kickers are in play and you have a ton of options for both teams to choose from. Most of my builds will have the same four guys and I really only plan to pick different flex options in those two spot to differentiate.

Cowboys: Amari Cooper, Dalton Shultz, Andy Dalton, Michael Gallup, Greg Zuerlein, Ezekiel Elliott, Cedrick Wilson

Ravens: Mark Ingram, Justin Tucker, Devin Duvernay, Willy Snead (if he plays), Myles Boykin, Luke Willson, Gus Edwards, Dez Bryant

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.8 Dallas at Baltimore. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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