Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.8 Dallas at Baltimore

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NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

Week 13 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.8 Dallas at Baltimore:

I’ve been trying to get a little more unique in some of my pivots over the last several showdowns and to this point we have found ourselves in good position at the end of the game. We all know who big chalk in this game. Lamar Jackson’s ownership in the captain spot is likely to get close to 30%. It is for very good reason though. The Cowboys are an absolute mess defensively and this might get out of hand quickly.

Chalk: Lamar Jackson $17,400

Pivot: JK Dobbins $12,900

Contrarian #1: Marquise Brown $10,800

Contrarian #2: Baltimore Defense $8,700

Contrarian #3: CeeDee Lamb $9,900

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.8 Dallas at Baltimore:

***For those who like narratives: Dez Bryant “revenge game”. He says it is water under the bridge but I do not really believe him.

Vegas: 45 Point Total/Ravens: -8

Weather: Upper 30’s, 8-10 MPH Wind

Vegas is telling us to to expect a pretty solid beatdown with the Ravens projected as 8 point favorites with a 45 point total. I don’t plan on giving Dallas that much credit. The Ravens blitz on almost 43% of their plays this season, Andy Dalton is terrible under pressure, and now Zack Martin is on the IR. I think the Ravens are going to have a field day. With that being said, you know we always say run 10 lines in showdown. You should have one or two under the expectation that Dallas has a solid day. We just saw the Pittsburgh lose to Washington. Anything can happen in showdown.

No need to explain Lamar Jackson at captain against this defense. JK Dobbins should be pretty self explanatory as well. Three of the last four weeks he has gotten no less that 14 touches which, for this overloaded backfield, is about as good are you’ll get without an injury or two. He is also the most well rounded back for Baltimore so in the freak occurrence that the Raven get behind he still gets used in the passing game.

If there is any game that Lamar Jackson and Marquise Brown could completely click and dominate this would be the one. While everyone like to bag on the Cowboy’s offense (deserved, good job McCarthy), the defense is even worse. They’ve given up 31 or more points in seven of their 11 games this year and have yet to hold a single opponent to under 20 points, and even that was week 1. As a reminder, they play the Giants, Eagles, and Washington twice a year…

Remember what I said about the Ravens blitz rate and The Red Water Pistol? This is the first and likely only time this season I will recommend a defense at the captains spot outside of just a random MME dart throw. I would be surprised if they didn’t get multiple sacks, multiple picks, and a pick 6.

Now that I said all of that we can expect the Cowboys to prove me wrong on every front so for my final pivot I’ll give you my favorite Cowboy. It’s not Zeke, he’s been garbage with Mike McCarthy as the head coach and that will not change. We need confirmation of 10 defensive players and their respective ailments. If either Jimmy Smith, Tramon Williams, or
Davontae Harris miss in the secondary they will not have the numbers to cover all three of the Cowboys receivers. Not to mention Safeties Chuck Clark and DeShon Elliott are questionable with injuries as well.

If the Cowboys can protect Dalton I think CeeDee Lamb going across the middle of the field will be dangerous proposition. The Ravens are deep in terms of physical talent in the secondary but where they will have a problem is communicating in confusing situations like heavy motion, bunch routes, and crossing routes. Do I think It’ll happen? No. But when playing in showdown you have to cover all of your bases

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.8 Dallas at Baltimore Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

Both kickers are in play and you have a ton of options for both teams to choose from. Most of my builds will have the same four guys and I really only plan to pick different flex options in those two spot to differentiate.

Cowboys: Amari Cooper, Dalton Shultz, Andy Dalton, Michael Gallup, Greg Zuerlein, Ezekiel Elliott, Cedrick Wilson

Ravens: Mark Ingram, Justin Tucker, Devin Duvernay, Willy Snead (if he plays), Myles Boykin, Luke Willson, Gus Edwards, Dez Bryant

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.8 Dallas at Baltimore. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!