Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.10 Patriots at Rams

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NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.10 Patriots at Rams:

This will be one of the longer Showdown articles I do this season just due to how much of an enigma both teams can be. Instead of putting all of my plays in a single paragraph I want to break this one down by scenarios so that you can more clearly see your path based on which script you want to go with in a given lineup. The range of outcomes is massive with each team playing great and horrible football from one week to another so your player pool overall will be larger than usual but at the same time it will be very narrow based on the script you choose.

Chalk: Cam Newton $15,900

Pivot: Cooper Kupp $14,400

Contrarian #1: Cam Akers $12,000 (See Scenario 2)

Contrarian #2: Damien Harris $13,200 (See Scenario 2)

Contrarian #3: Either Defense ($6,600 Rams/$6,300 Patriots) (Depending on your script)

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.10 Patriots at Rams:

Vegas: 45 Point Total/Rams: -5

Weather: It’s LA, we’re good.

Scenario 1: Vegas Script

We should start our showdown builds on most nights with what Las Vegas is projecting. They are the OG’s of sports betting and they are right more often than not. The expectation is the Rams will win this one close and the total score is low enough for you to expect the offenses to struggle a bit.

In this script and overall I would expect the chalk to fall to Cam Newton for two reasons. First, with the exception of Jakobi Myers there is no one else outside of a dart throw that gets consistent work in the air. That leaves Cam and Damien Harris as the only reasonable options at captain for New England in your main builds. Second, no matter the issues in the air he still maintains pretty consistent value with what he can do on the ground.

On the other side of the ball in this scenario the trick is figuring out who Bill Belichick is going to choose to shut down. With Goff not being a runner, I would keep him as a flex option in a lower total game. My lean is that he’ll try to shut down Robert Woods. The snap count has been decreasing for Cooper Kupp in favor of more two tight end sets and the expanded roles of Josh Reynolds and Van Jefferson recently. The upside is still there for Kupp so he would be my choice in this situation.

Scenario 2: Bad Cam Shows Up

Here comes the Cam slander as one of our subscribers likes to say. He has put up some of the worst QB numbers of his career this season and actually played badly enough to get benched in week seven where he put up 2.82 DK points.

The way this happens is a combination of two things. The Rams defense has a few big plays early on, the offense scores a couple of early touchdowns and the Patriots will be unable to hide Cam with the run game. In this situation we are talking about a 5-1 or 4-2 build in favor of the Rams. In most cases you want to target the trailing team but when it goes bad for the Patriots this year nobody produces with the exception of someone like James White.

If you are running a huge number of lineups take a handful of shots on him at captain. In two of our three game scripts White would be the preferred running back do to the passing game work. His ceiling looks to be limited at around 15 points in a PPR format this season but he still looks capable of his 25+ point upside games. In this scenario you can either run with a WR like Kupp if you think the quick scores come from him in or you can go with a back like Cam Akers in the captain spot.

Akers finally had his first game with more than 20 carries and it looks like he may be the guy but this feels like a bit of a trap as I mentioned in discord. He’s never had double digit touches in back to back weeks, he was limited in practice this week logging only one full practice, we’re on a short week, and Malcom Brown and Darrel Henderson only saw a 16% and 23% snap share respectively on Sunday. It wouldn’t surprise me if they kept the snap count low so they would be fresh on Thursday. So although it looks like it is Cams job now, I will be running some lineups with Henderson and Brown at captain in this scenario.

Scenario 3: Bad Goff shows up

I’m not just slandering cam today, Jared Goff has had his share of terrible games over the last two seasons. Just two weeks ago against the 49ers he put up a dud with a 6.02 DK outing. He has a difficult time against exotic looks and we know Bill has a huge playbook to pull from in that regard. The Pats have also really stepped up on the defensive side of the ball even after losing the majority of their defensive stars in the offseason.

In this scenario we have three primary captains we should look at, Cam Newton, Patriots defense, and Damien Harris. It looks like Bill is toning town the RBBC scheme that has driven us crazy and the scenarios on which to use is pretty straightforward. If the wheels fall of for the Rams we could cross off most of the players sans Matt Gay (Questionable) and Cooper Kupp. Goff struggled against the more exotic looks in week 8 against the Dolphins and Cooper Kupp got 20 targets in the process. He will always be his safety blanket. As a flex option only, I would also not be against some Sony Michel in this situation. He got about 10 carries in the blowout against the Chargers. He could have gotten more but instead they decided to roll out Jakob Johnson so I wouldn’t expect much more than that due to his injury history (hope that statement doesn’t come back to bite me).

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.10 Patriots at Rams Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

Kickers in low scoring games are firmly in play and with the way both offenses struggle at times you could see a number of long field goal attempts. Also with the recent increase in return touchdowns if you choose to go with a defense at captain going with the return man has become a good low owned option and an attempt to double dip on DraftKings. Another thing that you really need to consider when choosing flex’s.

Both the Patriots and Rams have a secondary where they can shut the primary receiver down. I could be completely off base and they chose to shut down Goff other than Woods but it is no secret that Jakobi Meyers is the only receiver who poses any threat so if Ramsey gives anyone the shadow treatment it will be him so I will likely be underweight on him.

Rams: Jared Goff, Matt Gay, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee, Gerald Everette, Josh Reynolds, Malcom Brown, Darrel Henderson, Van Jefferson

Patriots: Jacoki Meyers, James White, Gunner Owlzewski (Returner, DK Only), Damiere Byrd, Sony Michel, Donte Moncreif (only large field GPP’s as a last option)

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.10 Patriots at Rams. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!