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GPP Sleepers

Stix Picks: Week 10 NFL DFS GPP

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 10 NFL DFS GPP slate! For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 10 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups. After a ANOTHER MONSTER Week 9, let’s stay hot rolling into an ugly, Week 10 slate!

*PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.

In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2021 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Now, let’s get into it.

Games I’m most interested in getting exposure to:

MIN/LAC
ATL/DAL
TB/WAS
JAX/IND

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert ($7,300 DK / $8,000 FD)

On the weird slate with tons of injuries and condensed chalk, it’s going to be very hard to get different. There are three games with a total over 50 points and then the rest leave little fantasy appeal outside of one-offs. I have really dove into this slate and have attempted to get cute with other quarterbacks and really can’t find much that sits well with me. That said, I’m going right back to Justin Herbert this week against the Minnesota secondary we often pick on in a game with a total at 53.5 points. Sometimes, chalk is good-chalk and we just have to find a way to build a high-upside GPP lineup around it.

At a 10% ownership projection, this isn’t nearly the GPP “sex” spot we had last week, but there are five quarterbacks projected for 10% or higher ownership at the quarterback position (Prescott, Brady, Allen, Herbert, and Ryan) and Herbert’s path a ceiling game seems to make the most sense for me and I’ll try to get different elsewhere in my lineup.

Key Pairing(s): Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Jared Cook, Austin Ekeler
Key Run-back(s): Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Tyler Conklin

Tom Brady ($7,600 DK / $8,300 FD)

Similar to the above, we are not uncovering anything sneaky here with Tom Brady, but what we can do is get different with our build on using a run-back or two with Tom Brady. We know the Bucs are likely going to lead every slate in pass attempts and that should bode well for this Tampa passing attack against a horrid Washington secondary, grading 31st in pass defense DVOA.

Key Pairing(s): Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette, Tyler Johnson (if Godwin is out)
Key Run-back(s): Terry McLaurin, J.D. McKissic, Ricky Seals-Jones

Trevor Lawrence ($5,300 DK / $6,600 FD)

It wouldn’t be a StixPicks GPP article without a nasty 1% owned, punt-play quarterback, so here it is. We’ve had a ton of success picking on the Indianapolis secondary who currently grades 26th in pass defense DVOA and the Jaguars are one of the more pass-happy teams in the NFL. With the Colts sitting as a 10.5 point favorite, the realistic gamescript here is that the Jaguars are chasing points from the get-go and we watch Jonathan Taylor run wild.

If Lawrence and the Jaguars are somewhat competent on offense this Sunday, Lawrence should offer a lot of savings to build a lineup that helps you avoid the 50% owned punt-running backs of D’Ernest Johnson and Mark Ingram. I’m not saying that is a smart move, but I find it hard to believe D’Ernest Johnson at 50% ownership, running against a stacked-box Bill Belichick is likely to scheme, will be a path to GPP success.

Key Pairing(s): Marvin Jones, Dan Arnold
Key Run-back(s): Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr.

Honorable Mention: Kirk Cousins, Josh Allen, Carson Wentz, Ben Roethlisberger

NFL DFS GPP Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($8,000 DK / $8,500 FD)

This week it looks like the majority of the field is going to pair up D’Ernest Johnson, Mark Ingram, which is fine for cash games, but I don’t see much upside there other than significant touchdown variance breaking your way if you choose to build a lineup with them both. That leaves you room for one stud running back and it looks like the field is choosing Najee Harris at that spot leaving Dalvin Cook projected for 10% ownership.

As I mentioned in the cash article, Dalvin Cook is my lock of the week for all formats in NFL DFS this weekend against a Chargers defense giving up five yards per carry and a nut-worst 32nd ranked run defense (DVOA). I want a piece of both sides of this game in the majority of my lineups and will be using a run-back to fit my narrative of this game shooting-out.

Key Run-backs: Jared Cook (value), Mike Williams (upside), Keenan Allen (safety/upside), Austin Ekeler (safety/upside)

Aaron Jones ($6,900 DK / $8,200 FD)

With Aaron Rodgers back in the lineup, the upside for Aaron Jones is arguably second-to-nobody at the running back position this week. The Seahawks grade 30th in DVOA against pass-catching running backs and with Russel Wilson returning for Seattle, this game definitely has shoot-out potential. These are the games where I really like to use Aaron Jones’ elite pass-catching ability and extremely high touchdown equity.

If you think this game is one with sneaky shootout potential, you run Jones back with Metcalf or Lockett. Simple as that.

Leonard Fournette ($6,100 DK / $7,400 FD)

I really only like Fournette if Chris Godwin is out but with a banged up Washington defensive line, he’s in play regardless. This is likely an excellent gamescript for Leonard Fournette as a two-score favorite as is, but if Godwin is out, the pass-catching upside for Fournette is upgraded significantly. At 7-10% ownership, I love the differentiation Fournette offers to your GPP builds.

J.D. McKissic ($5,200 DK ONLY)

Another gross 1% owned type of play, but McKissic’s gamescript as they likely play catch-up to Tom Brady and the Bucs is a very positive one. By no means do I expect McKissic to have a ceiling game here of 18+ points, but I’m using McKissic with the angle of “just go outscore D’Ernest Johnson chalk”. I’d likely keep McKissic exposure strictly to large-field tournaments.

Honorable Mention: Cordarrelle Patterson, Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, James Conner

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

Mike Evans ($6,900 DK / $7,400 FD)

With or without Chris Godwin, Mike Evans is going to be a core play for me this weekend. Brandon St. Juste and Kendall Fuller will have their hands full as Mike Evans brings some serious two-plus touchdown upside in this matchup.

Terry McLaurin ($7,600 DK / $7,100 FD)

Crazy cheap on FanDuel, but McLaurin is in play at 5% ownership on both outlets here. As we discussed J.D. McKissic’s upside in the favorable pass-heavy gamescript for the Washington Football Team, Terry McLaurin is the biggest benefactor in a game that Tampa gets an early lead and continues to score. The AETY Model projects Terry McLaurin for a 32% target share this weekend which would lead the slate if all goes to plan.

Mike Williams ($6,600 DK / $6,900 FD)

I mentioned in the cash article how I don’t like to pick on the inside of Minnesota’s secondary, but boy oh boy do I love picking on Cam Dantzler and Bashaud Breeland. Both of these defenses are insanely banged up and again, this is my favorite game to get exposure to. I was all in Keenan Allen last week and we crushed, but this week, I’ll take the savings and roll with the 100+ yards and two-touchdown upside Mike Williams brings to the table in this matchup.

For what it’s worth, I still love Keenan Allen.

Marvin Jones ($5,800 DK / $5,900 FD)

On a slate where I love a lot of higher-priced studs, I’ll need a little bit of savings and Marvin Jones provides me with just that. A true WR1 priced as a mid-tier WR2 is something I always try to find on each slate, especially when they’re going to see Rock Ya-Sin for the majority of the game. When I saw sportsbooks open his prop around 44 receiving yards, I was a bit discouraged in rostering Marvin Jones, but I’m going to hit the over on that prop and double-dip my exposure with Jones in my NFL DFS GPP lineups.

Value “Punt” Plays

Tyler Johnson (if Godwin is OUT)
James Washington
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Honorable Mention: Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, DK Metcalf, Russell Gage, Diontae Johnson

NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends

T.J. Hockenson ($5,500 DK / $6,500 FD)

While the whole world rushes to play Diontae Johnson and/or Najee Harris, absolutely no one if interested in Hockenson in a perfect gamescript for a ceiling game. There’s little doubt that the Steelers get ahead early and I always love to take 1% owned-upside on the other side of the DFS chalk heaven. Hockenson has a legit 8+ reception for 100-yards type matchup here. If he can find a way into the end-zone, we’re talking the TE1 on this main slate.

Jared Cook ($3,200 DK / $5,200 FD)

I touched earlier that we need to find a way to get a little different if we’re going to be investing in some of the chalkiest games on this slate and that lead me to Jared Cook. There’s really nothing sexy about Jared Cook but we should always be interested in a pass-catching tight-end against Cover-2 defenses (what Minnesota will run for the majority of Sunday). Cook is projected for 5-8% ownership and the number-one value at tight-end in the AETY Model. I wouldn’t expect much, but if he can get us 10+ fantasy points, we’ll be in a really good spot. If he finds his way into the end-zone, then look out Twitter, because there will be a lot of Win Daily member screenshots going out!

Honorable Mention: Kyle Pitts, Ricky Seals-Jones

Thank you all for the support and good luck this week! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

3 years ago 0 comments

Insight Sheet: 2021 Valero Texas Open

Allan Fabrykant 4 years ago

written by Allan Fabrykant

The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the 2021 Valero Texas Open. Inside is my player selection. Make sure to be on Discord Wednesday night to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.

Make sure to check out our Gold Package for all your DFS needs with a discount! 3 months for $79.99!

Players priced $9,000 and above

Corey Conners $9,500 (Model #1, Projected Ownership 24%)
Tony Finau $11,000 (M#2, PO 23%)
Charlie Hoffman $9,200 (M#3, PO 21%)
Cameron Tringale $9,300 (M#4, PO 15%)
Ryan Palmer $9,400 (M#17, PO 21%)
Brendan Steele $9,100 (M#20, PO 16%)

Players between $8,900 and $8,000

Lanto Griffin $8,700 (M#7, PO 15%)
Cameron Davis $8,800 (M#12, PO 16%)
Si Woo Kim $8,900 (M#21, PO 15) **Edited 12:40 am**
Aaron Wise $8,000 (M#30, PO 6%)
Adam Hadwin $8,300 (M#58, PO 4%)

Players between $7,900 and $7,300

Ryan Moore $7,900 (M#9, PO 11%)
Doug Ghim $7,300 (M#14, PO 17%)
Sam Ryder $7,400 (M#15, PO 14%)
Harold Varner III $7,900 (M#16, PO 11%)
John Huh $7,400 (M#26, PO 4%)
Lucas Glover $7,300 (M#31, 2%)

Players priced $7,200 and below

Matthew NeSmith $7,100 (M#22, PO 7%)
Russell Knox $7,000 (M#27, PO 2%)
~~Harry Higgs $7,100 (M#29, PO 13%)~~ **Edited 12:31am**
Cameron Percy $6,600 (M#13, PO 2%)
Bo Hoag $6,400 (M#25, PO <1%)

Strategy for the 2021 Valero Texas Open

This week at the 2021 Valero Texas Open is the time to take your shot with so much value in the 7K range. I’m honestly playing much lighter in terms of my bankroll in play (to go heavy at The Masters) and you should be too. It’s not because I don’t trust my research but because it’s a terrible field with question marks through out the 10K range. Build a three or four-man core, and pepper it with everyone else. This is a win everything or you lose everything kind of week.

Key Stats
T2G – Tee to Green
BS – Ball Striking
DK Points
BOB – Birdie or Better
Proximity

Cash Game Core (No One Over 10K, Safest)

Cameron Tringale $9,300 (Seems to always be here)
Cameron Davis $8,800
Ryan Moore $7,900

This core will leave you with over $8,000 on average to fill out your roster for the 2021 Valero Texas Open. You could even fill in a mid 9K priced golfer and still have roughly $7,200 on average to complete the rest of your build. Remember for cash games you just need to cash, winning the whole thing isn’t necessary. Raise the floor of your team by trying to stay out of the 6K range.

Single Entry / 3 Max GPP (Risk)

9K – Conners, Hoffman & Steele
8K – Griffin
7K – Ghim & Huh

20 Max GPP (Riskier)

10K – Finau
9K – Palmer
8K – Wise
7K – Ryder, Varner & Glover

150 Max GPP (Riskiest)

8K – Hadwin
7K – NeSmith, Knox & Higgs
6K – Percy & Hoag

As a general rule of thumb that I follow when “normally” entering 150 max is the higher the golfer is priced, you should have more of them in your lineups. For example…

10K Player – 40%
9K Player – 30%
8K Player – 20%
7K Player – 10%
6K Player – 5%

These golfers are priced like they are for a reason (for the most part). Don’t kill good lineups because you have 30% of a 6K player. Could he go off and you’re way up on the competition, sure. There’s a better chance that they sink those lineups instead. With the 2021 Valero Texas Open, I would try and create a higher-priced block of golfer 2/3 in the $8,500 and up range and then build off of that.

Early Projected Ownership – FanShareSports. Make sure to check out Steven’s Final Ownership Report Wednesday evening with up-to-date projections!

Monkey Knife Fight – 2021 Honda Classic

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Monkey Knife Fight! As I said I like Tony Finau and I’m fading Jordan Spieth so you can grab the MORE Fantasy Points for Finau and the LESS Fantasy Points for Spieth and make some more money! Check out how to play with our quick overview here.

Monkey Knife Fight Prop Bet. Finau versus Spieth for the 2021 Valero Texas Open.

Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the 2021 Valero Texas Open. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailySports) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up-to-date news. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

Insight Sheet: 2021 Honda Classic

4 years ago

written by

The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the 2021 Honda Classic. Inside is my player selection. Make sure to be on Discord Wednesday night to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.

Make sure to check out our Gold Package for all your DFS needs with a discount! 3 months for $79.99!

Players priced $10,000 and above

Daniel Berger $10,800 (Model #1, Projected Ownership 31%)
Joaquin Niemann $10,400 (M#3, PO 28%)
Sungjae Im $11,000 (M#13, PO 27%)

**The 2021 Honda Classic has a weak field with a tough course. It’s no surprise that these guys all project over 25% ownership (check Steven’s article tomorrow afternoon for final ownership projections). I think you have three ways of looking at this range.

1. Fade it all together – They all have question marks
2. Fade Berger and play the other two – Berger had an MRI done on his ribs. They had to be hurting enough to get it checked out. The question becomes, Does he finish the tournament, or is he even playing at 100%? He’s the best player in this tournament and for me, it isn’t close.
3. GO ALL IN on Berger. Like I just mentioned he is light years better than everyone else in this field including Sungjae and Niemann. Berger is the most complete player from top to bottom. I created six total models for the week and he finishes 1st, 2nd, 6th, 2nd, 4th, and 3rd.

Players between $9,900 and $9,000

Cameron Tringale $9,100 (M#2, PO 11%)
Russell Henley $9,800 (M#19, PO 20%)
Talor Gooch $9,300 (M#27, PO 17%)

Players between $8,900 and $8,000

Brendan Steele $8,700 (M#9, PO 14%)
Doug Ghim $8,800 (M#11, PO 11%)
Cameron Davis $8,600 (M#20, PO 17%)
Matt Wallace $8,500 (M#45, PO 8%)

Players between $7,900 and $7,000

Ryan Moore $7,300 (M#4, PO 6%)
Kevin Streelman $7,700 (M#8, PO 12%)
Matthew NeSmith $7,300 (M#10, PO 11%)
Harold Varner III $7,600 (M#34, PO 5%)
Rory Sabbatini $7,200 (M#35, PO 5%)
Erik Van Rooyen $7,600 (M#38, PO 4%)

Players between $6,900 and $6,000

Wesley Bryan $6,800 (M#18, PO 2%)
Chesson Hadley $6,600 (M#107, PO .5%) – PURE PUNT

Strategy for the 2021 Honda Classic

This week at the 2021 Honda Classic is the time to take your shot with your low-owned gems. I’m honestly playing much lighter in terms of my bankroll in play and you should be too. It’s not because I don’t trust my research but because it’s a terrible field on a hard track with question marks sprinkled throughout the top-priced guys. Build a three or four-man core, and pepper it with everyone else. This is a win everything or you lose everything kind of week.

Key Stats
GIR – Green in Regulation
Ball Striking
Bogey Avoidance
DK Scoring
Tee 2 Green

Cash Game Core (No One Over 10K, Safest)

Cameron Tringale $9,100
Brendan Steele $8,700
Kevin Streelman $7,700

This core will leave you with over $8,100 on average to fill out your roster for the 2021 Honda Classic. You could even fill in a mid 9K priced golfer and still have roughly $7,500 on average to complete the rest of your build. Remember for cash games you just need to cash, winning the whole thing isn’t necessary. Raise the floor of your team by trying to stay out of the low 7K/6K range.

Single Entry / 3 Max GPP (Risk)

**Depends on your strategy up above in the 10K range**
10K – Berger for SE. Add Sungjae in for 3 Max
9K – Henley
8K – Davis
7K – Moore

20 Max GPP (Riskier)

10K – Niemann
9K – Gooch
8K – Ghim
7K – NeSmith
6K – Bryan

150 Max GPP (Riskiest)

8K – Wallace
7K – Varner, Sabbatini & Rooyen
6K – Hadley

As a general rule of thumb that I follow when “normally” entering 150 max is the higher the golfer is priced, you should have more of them in your lineups. For example…

10K Player – 40%
9K Player – 30%
8K Player – 20%
7K Player – 10%
6K Player – 5%

These golfers are priced like they are for a reason (for the most part). Don’t kill good lineups because you have 30% of a 6K player. Could he go off and you’re way up on the competition, sure. There’s a better chance that they sink those lineups instead. With the 2021 Honda Classic, I would try and create a higher-priced block of golfer 2/3 in the $8,500 and up range and then build off of that.

Projected Ownership – FanShareSports

Monkey Knife Fight – 2021 Honda Classic

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Monkey Knife Fight! As I said I like Sungjae Im and I’m fading Lee Westwood so you can grab the MORE Birdie or Better for Im and the LESS Birdie or Better for Westwood and make some more money! Check out how to play with our quick overview here.

Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the 2021 Honda Classic. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailySports) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up-to-date news. You can also come hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

4 years ago 0 comments

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Insight Sheet: 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational

4 years ago

written by

The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Inside is my player selection. Make sure to be on Discord Wednesday night to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.

Make sure to check out our Gold Package for all your DFS needs with a discount! 3 months for $79.99!

Players priced $10,000 and above

Viktor Hovland $10,600 (Model #1, Projected Ownership 26%)
Tyrrell Hatton $10,000 (M#3, PO 19%)
Bryson DeChambeau $11,00 (M#12, PO 13%)
Patrick Reed $10,200 (M#25, PO 15%)

Players between $9,900 and $8,000

Sam Burns $8,400 (M#5, PO 23%)
Max Homa $8,500 (M#7, PO 7%)
Matthew Fitzpatrick $9,800 (M#13, PO 19%)
Hideki Matsuyama $9,400 (M#28, PO 4%)

Players between $7,900 and $7,000

Corey Conners $7,300 (M#2, PO 7%)
Cameron Tringale $7,700 (M#4, PO 14%)
Henrik Norlander $7,200 (M#6, PO 7%)
Charley Hoffman $7,600 (M#10, PO 11%)
Chris Kirk $7,000 (M#16, PO 11%)
Si Woo Kim $7,500 (M#20, PO 4%) – I just can’t quit Si *Insert Ric Flair WOOOO GIF*

Players priced $6,900 and below

Matthew NeSmith $6,900 (M#9, PO 15%)
Russell Knox $6,700 (M#19, PO 2%)
Kyle Stanley $6,500 (M#21, PO 6%)
Doug Ghim $6,600 (M#22, PO 1%)
John Huh $6,600 (M#24, PO 2%)
Harold Varner III $6,800 (M#26, PO 3%)

Strategy for the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational

As you can see from the player pool above, I think there is a ton of value in the lower levels this week at the API. I’ll be looking to load up on a three-man core this week for multiple entry tournaments and then just rotate through one high-priced golfer and two lower-tier players. If you don’t want to carry such high ownership on a few “locked” in players, this is a week where a stars and scrubs approach certainly fits.

Key Stats
Ball Striking
Tee 2 Green
Bogey Avoidance
Prox: 125 – 150

Cash Game Core (No one over $10,000, Less Risk)

Matthew Fitzpatrick $9,800
Sam Burns $8,400
Cameron Tringale $7,700

This core will leave you with $8,000 on average to fill out your roster for the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational. You could even fill in a $9,500 priced golfer and still have $7,300 on average to complete the rest of your build. Remember for cash games you just need to cash, winning the whole thing isn’t necessary. Raise the floor of your team by trying to stay out of the low 7K/6K range.

Single Entry / 3 Max GPP (Risk)

10K – Viktor Hovland & Tyrrell Hatton. Would run a 2:1 in a 3 Max with these two. Hovland will push 35% in SE/3Max.
8K – Max Homa
7K – Charley Hoffman
6K – Matthew NeSmith

20 Max GPP (More Risk)

10K – Patrick Reed
7K – Corey Conners, Henrik Norlander & Chris Kirk
6K – Kyle Stanley

150 Max GPP (Most Risk)

10K – Bryson DeChambeau
9K – Hideki Matsuyama
7K – Si Woo Kim
6K – Russell Knox, Doug Ghim, John Huh & Harold Varner III

As a general rule of thumb that I follow when “normally” entering 150 max is the higher the golfer is priced, you should have more of them in your lineups. For example…

10K Player – 40%
9K Player – 30%
8K Player – 20%
7K Player – 10%
6K Player – 5%

These golfers are priced like they are for a reason (for the most part). Don’t kill good lineups because you have 30% of a 6K player. Could he go off and you’re way up on the competition, sure. There’s a better chance that they sink those lineups instead. With the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational, I would try and create a higher-priced block of golfer 2/3 in the $8,500 and up range and then build off of that.

Projected Ownership – FanShareSports

Monkey Knife Fight – 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Monkey Knife Fight! As I said I like Patrick Reed and I’m fading Rory McIlroy so you can grab the MORE Birdie or Better for Reed and the LESS Birdie or Better for McIlroy and make some more money! Check out how to play with our quick overview here.

Patrick Reed vs Rory McIlroy on Monkey Knife Fight for the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the 2021 Genesis Invitational. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailySports) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up-to-date news. You can also come hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before lock!

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

Insight Sheet: 2021 Genesis Invitational

4 years ago

written by

The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the 2021 Genesis Invitational. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord Wednesday night to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.

Make sure to check out our Gold Package for all your DFS needs with a discount! 3 months for $79.99!

Players priced $10,000 and above

Jon Rahm $10,400 (Model #3, Projected Ownership 19%)
Rory McIlroy $10,500 (M#4, PO 15%)
Justin Thomas $10,700 (M#7, PO 15%)

Players priced $9,900 and $9,000

Xander Schauffele $9,900 (M#5, PO 19%)
Patrick Cantlay $9,600 (M#10, PO 20%)
Tony Finau $9,300 (M311, PO 19%)
Collin Morikawa $9,500 (M37, PO 14%)

Players priced $8,900 and $8,000

Joaquin Niemann $8,800 (M#6, PO 17%)
Will Zalatoris $8,300 (M#8, PO 11%)
Max Homa $8,200 (M#33, PO 14%)

Players priced $7,900 and $7,500

Cameron Davis $7,500 (M#12, PO 11%)
Cameron Tringale $7,600 (M#21, PO 15%)
Si Woo Kim $7,700 (M#26, PO 6%)
Abraham Ancer $7,900 (M#35, PO 7%)
Russell Henley $7,800 (M#39, PO 9%)

Players priced $7,400 and below

Sam Burns $7,400 (M#16, PO 8%)
Luke List $7,300 (M#17, PO 8%)
Wyndham Clark $7,100 (M#20, PO 5%)
Henrik Norlander $7,400 (M#23, PO 5%)
Kevin Streelman $7,400 (M#35, PO 4%)
Wesley Bryan $6,100 (M#58, PO 1%)

Strategy for the 2021 Genesis Invitational

With this event being an invitational, the field is compressed down to 120 golfers with the typical top 65 and ties making it to the weekend. The tournament is stacked with top end talent which is pushing the price down on everyone else, in some places down $1,700. I think one of the top dogs take it down so I would not get cute and try and avoid the top tier guys. Get one and possibly two if you can afford it and cram in a bunch of value in the 7K range.

Key Stats

Driving Distance
Ball Striking w/ emphasis on OTT
DraftKing Scoring
Bogey Avoidance

Cash Game Core (No one over $10,000)

Patrick Cantlay $9,600
Joaquin Niemann $8,800
Cameron Davis $7,500

This core will leave you with $8,000 on average to fill out your roster for the 2021 Genesis Invitational. You could even fill in a $9,500 priced golfer and still have $7,300 on average to complete the rest of your build. Remember for cash games you just need to cash, winning the whole thing isn’t necessary. Raise the floor of your team by trying to stay out of the low 7K/6K range.

Single Entry / 3 Max GPP

10K – Jon Rahm & Justin Thomas. Would run a 2:1 in a 3 Max with these two. Rahm is my favorite 10K player overall.
9K – Xander Schauffele
8K – Will Zalatoris
7K – Cameron Tringale

20 Max GPP

10K – Rory McIlroy
9K – Tony Finau
8K – Max Homa
7K – Sam Burns & Luke List

150 Max GPP

9K – Collin Morikawa
7K – Si Woo Kim, Abraham Ancer, Russell Henley, Wyndham Clark, Henrik Norlander & Kevin Streelman
6K – Wesley Bryan (Huge Punt)

As a general rule of thumb that I follow when “normally” entering 150 max is the higher the golfer is priced, you should have more of them in your lineups. For example…

10K Player – 40%
9K Player – 30%
8K Player – 20%
7K Player – 10%
6K Player – 5%

These golfers are priced like they are for a reason (for the most part). Don’t kill good lineups because you have 30% of a 6K player. Could he go off and you’re way up on the competition, sure. There’s a better chance that they sink those lineups instead. With the 2021 Genesis Invitational, I would try and create a higher priced block of golfer 2/3 in the $8,500 and up range and then build off of that.

Projected Ownership – FanShareSports

Monkey Knife Fight – 2021 Genesis Invitational

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Monkey Knife Fight! As I said I like Rory McIlroy and I’m fading Dustin Johnson so you can grab the MORE Birdie or Better for McIlroy and the LESS Birdie or Better for Dustin Johnson and make some more money! Check out how to play with our quick overview here.

Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the 2021 Genesis Invitational. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailySports) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news. You can also come hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before lock!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 13

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” HUGE Week 12 at Win Daily for our NFL DFS GPP lineups and it’s time for us to get rolling again for Week 13. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 13 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

*Keep in mind, you DO NOT NEED to just build your GPP lineups around these players. Players from the Cash Game Checkdown are there because they have extremely high floors and high ceilings. They are key components you should probably build around no matter what type of contest you’re in*

Adjusted Expected Team Totals Rankings for Week 13

Minnesota Vikings (24.82)
Green Bay Packers (24.05)
Tennessee Titans (22.31)
Los Angeles Rams (22.30)
New Orleans Saints (22.02)

My Personal Top Stacks:

1) Green Bay Packers
2) Chicago Bears
3) Tennessee Titans
4) Seattle Seahawks
5) New York Jets

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers – All in on Rodgers and the Packers’ offense against the Eagles’ putrid secondary. The Eagles will bring an excellent pass rush so this is no cakewalk for Rodgers and company, but on a Sunday as ugly as this one, I’m going to invest heavily in the best quarterback on the slate.
Mitch Trubisky – Yes, let’s go down to the salary savings of Mitch Trubisky and this Bears offense. As mentioned in the cash game article, Trubisky absolutely destroys the Lions’ defense, historically. The Lions’ defense as a whole is decimated with injuries and also do not have Matt Patricia slowing down the pace of their offense.

This game will be sloppy, but it will produce some fantasy fireworks for our NFL DFS GPP lineups.
Ryan Tannehill – Low key, Tannehill and the Titans’ offense play at a very high pace despite giving Derrick Henry 22+ carriers per game. A high-paced offense is something I’ll always be interested in with my GPP builds… especially when that team is going virtually un-owned (outside of Derrick Henry).

Vegas has this game kicking off with the highest total on the slate and surprisingly it’s not drawing a lot of ownership in DFS.

Honorable Mention: Russell Wilson, Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray

Running Backs

Chris Carson – Carson is in for a full workload this week after seeing how useless Carlos Hyde was with 15 touches last week in addition to nursing a toe injury. We love playing double digit home-favorite running backs, so why is there no love for a 3-down back like Chris Carson?
Miles Sanders – I always pick on the Green Bay running defense and this happens to be the perfect run back for my favorite stack of the Packers.
Myles Gaskin – There’s literally no one else behind him that will take away snaps. Miami is a big favorite against a Bengals team that has absolutely nothing to play for. Gaskin will likely be popular, but not nearly as much as Montgomery and Booker.
Kareem Hunt – Just a conviction play to go on the other side of my Titans’ stacks (when I cannot afford Nick Chubb). I really love this spot for both Browns’ running backs.

Honorable Mention: Alvin Kamara, Damien Harris, Frank Gore

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams – He’s not sneaky whatsoever, but give me all of the Davante Adams this week.
Allen Robinson – If he’s 100% healthy and good to go, the Lions’ secondary is absolutely destroyed right now. Desmond Trufant and Jeffrey Okudah (the top two corners in Detroit) are both out (Trufant on IR)… this is going to be a field day for Robinson and the Bears.
AJ Brown – I don’t know what else AJ Brown has to do to get more love in the DFS world. He’s one of the highest ceiling wide receivers to put into your NFL DFS GPP lineups.
DJ Chark – He’s a top-end wide receiver priced at $5,400 on DraftKings against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. The Jaguars will be playing catch up all day on Sunday and that sets up for a busy day for DJ Chark.
Michael Pittman – All the way the hell in on Michael Pittman this weekend against a Bradley Roby-less, Houston Texans’ secondary. Read the cash game article if you need more on why I’m so high on Pittman.
Denzel Mims / Breshad Perriman – If you need some salary relief, one of these two will be my top choices. They both have extremely intriguing player props for such low salaries in DFS and have a juicy matchup against the Raiders’ secondary you know I love to pick on.

Honorable Mention: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Cooper Kupp, Corey Davis, Darnell Mooney, Justin Jefferson

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

Robert Tonyan – Packers’ stacks and a dude who is a lock to see 5+ targets and a great red-zone asset. Cheap exposure to my favorite game-stack.
TJ Hockenson – simply a low-owned, underpriced player as a run-back to my second favorite stack. Out of the tight-ends on this slate, no one other than Darren Waller have the floor Hockenson has.

Honorable Mention: Hayden Hurst

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

Insight Sheet: The 2020 Masters

4 years ago

written by

The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the 2020 Masters. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord Wednesday night to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.

Players priced $10,000 and higher

Dustin Johnson $10,000 (Model #1, Projected Ownership ~~24%~~ 28%)
Bryson DeChambeau $11,200 (M2, 16%)
Jon Rahm $10,500 (M3, 22%)
Justin Thomas $10,700 (M10, 15%)

Players priced between $9,900 and $9,000

Tyrrell Hatton $9,400 (M4, 12%)
Bubba Watson $9,000 (M6, 15%)
Patrick Reed $9,200 (M11, 19%)
Xander Schauffele $9,800 (M12, ~~19%~~ 21%)
Collin Morikawa $9,500 (M24, 4% 8%)

Players priced between $8,900 and $8,000

Tony Finau $8,800 (M8, ~~22%~~ 25%)
Matthew Wolff $8,500 (M18, ~~17%~~ 14%)
Adam Scott $8,900 (M20, 8%)
Rickie Fowler $8,100 (M22, 7% 5%)

Players priced between $7,900 and $7,000

Sungjae Im $7,500 (M15, 3%)
Scottie Scheffler $7,800 (M16, ~~13%~~ 15%)
Matthew Fitzpatrick $7,600 (M19, 9% 13%)
Lee Westwood $7,200 (M30, 6%)
Cameron Smith $7,300 (M42, ~~10%~~ 15%)
Cameron Champ $7,100 (M-NA, 2%)

Players priced $6,900 and below

Erik Van Rooyen $6,900 (M21, 4% 7%)
Corey Conners $6,600 (M23, 11%)
Lucas Glover $6,400 (M34, 3%)
Justin Harding $6,300 (M57, 1%)
Francesco Molinari $6,700 (M-NA, 5%)

Strategy for the 2020 Masters

It’s a simple strategy and that is to try and jam in as many of the top players in the world into your lineups. Majors bring out the best and more often then not, the top players are sitting on the podium and the 2020 Masters is even more the rule. This idea though is shared through out the industry and alterations need to be made…slightly. Make hard stands with the guys up top. For myself I have Rory, Brooks and Hideki all inside my top 20 but by leaving them out of my player pool for various reasons, if they bomb there’s a potential of over 50% ownership that was just leaped frogged. Could any of those three win this week? Absolutely, and no one would be surprised either but I cannot play everyone. Just alter one or two sports from a cash/chalky line and you should be good.

One last thing, if a golfer in the 6K/7K range is getting traction, pivot else where. This week’s candidate is Jason Kokrak and his projected ~~22%~~ 18% ownership. WHAT!?!? There is a better chance that they miss the cut then wind up top 20. Get ahead of the field.

Cash Game Core (No one over $10,000)

Xander Schauffele $9,800
Tony Finau $8,800
Matthew Fitzpatrick $7,600

This gives you a total of $26,200 and leaves you with $23,800. On average your remaining players cost $7,900. Could easily add a $9,500 player or equivalent and still have over $7,000 to fill out your two remaining spots.

**In the tiers below, you can mix in the cash plays with those of the different tournament selection. The higher you go with tournament entries for the 2020 Masters the farther down the list you can include.**

Single Entry / 3 Max GPP

10K – Dustin Johnson & Jon Rahm – I would do two lineups with one or the other and a third with the other player. If you want to get riskier, going with both of them could work but I don’t think it’s necessary.
9K – Patrick Reed
7K – Scottie Scheffler & Cameron Smith
6K – Corey Conners

20 Max GPP

10K – Bryson DeChambeau & Justin Thomas
9K – Tyrrell Hatton & Bubba Watson
8K – Matthew Wolff
7K – Lee Westwood
6K – Erik Van Rooyen & Francesco Molinari

150 Max GPP

9K – Collin Morikawa
8K – Adam Scott & Rickie Fowler
7K – Sungjae Im & Cameron Champ
6K – Lucas Glover & Justin Harding

As a general rule of thumb that I follow when “normally” entering 150 max is the higher the golfer is priced, you should have more of them in your lineups. For example…

10K Player – 40%
9K Player – 30%
8K Player – 20%
7K Player – 10%
6K Player – 5%

These golfers are priced like they are for a reason (for the most part). Don’t kill good lineups because you have 30% of a 6K player. Could he go off and you’re way up on the competition, sure. There’s a better chance that they sink those lineups instead. With the 2020 Masters, I would try and play it more to the vest, making small changes to cash lineups.

Projected Ownership – FanShareSports

Monkey Knife Fight – 2020 Masters

Using the information above, you can even make some money on Monkey Knife Fight! As I said I like Jon Rahm and I’m fading Rory McIlroy, so you can grab the MORE Fantasy Points for Rahm and the LESS Fantasy Points for McIlroy and make some more money! Check out how to play with our quick overview here.

Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the 2020 Masters. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailySports) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news. You can also come hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before lock!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 9

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to get rolling again for Week 9. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 9 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

NEW: Adjusted Expected Team Totals Rankings for Week 9

Kansas City Chiefs (25.76)
Seattle Seahawks (24.21)
Minnesota Vikings (24.13)
Arizona Cardinals (22.77)
Pittsburgh Steelers (22.63)
Houston Texans (22.43)
Buffalo Bills (21.83)
Los Angeles Chargers (21.04)

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson – Welcome back, Mr. Wilson! Russell Wilson is once again the top quarterback in the AETY Model and I’ll be going right back to the well in this matchup at Buffalo with an expected total currently sitting at 55 points (highest on the slate).

I don’t really care what his ownership is, he’s too consistent to fade. You know who to stack him up with.
Josh Allen – On the other side of Wilson this week is obviously, Josh Allen. The Seattle passing defense is atrocious and should be a perfect get-right spot for Josh Allen (who hasn’t thrown a touchdown since Week 6). Allen is projected to lead this slate in passing yards and like Wilson, it’s very easy to stack him up as the target share in Buffalo is rather condensed.
Lamar Jackson – Lamar Jackson is now priced under $7K on DraftKings… a day I didn’t think we’d ever see any time soon when building NFL DFS GPP lineups. Yes, Indianapolis’ defense is extremely stout (ranked 3rd in overall defense DVOA), but I’ll always be interested in rostering Lamar Jackson when he’s likely under 5% owned… not to mention the salary relief he offers this week.

I have Lamar projected to throw for his season high this week (which isn’t saying a whole lot) and it should finally lead to a big day for Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews (both priced down throughout the DFS industry this week). If Lamar can do his usually damage on the ground and pair that with a 220+ passing yard performance with a couple of TDs, he may very well be QB1 this week and no one is going to play him.
Justin Herbert – Give me all of the Justin Herbert this week as they host the Las Vegas Raiders and their 31st overall ranked defense (in terms of DVOA). You can carve this secondary up and also run it down their throats. If the Raiders can keep the pace in this game and keep it close (the game is currently posted as a pick-em on most sportsbooks), Herbert and company should have another monster game at home in the dome.

Honorable Mention: Kyler Murray, Drew Lock, DeShaun Watson, Matthew Stafford

Running Backs

*Obviously, Dalvin Cook, James Conner, Chase Edmonds are in smash spots. They should be a heavy focus of yours in most lineups, but here are the guys I think are difference-making pivots off of the heavy chalk RBs*

Derrick Henry – All hail King Henry, the NFL’s leading rusher by a healthy margin. Derrick Henry is currently projected to be in the 5-10% ownership bracket here in Week 9 against a Bears’ defense that is much more beatable on the ground than via the pass.

Having said that, the Bears sit right in the middle of the NFL in terms of opposing running back yards per carry (4.3), but they are without one of their better run stoppers in Roy Robertson-Harris this week and that will not bode well against Tennessee’s top-ten rushing offense (7th overall in run offense efficiency).

Yet again, Henry leads the AETY Model in projected rushing yards this week and leads the slate with (-240) odds to score. Ride him.
James Robinson – I was quite surprised to see how much James Robinson popped in the model this week as he certainly wasn’t on my radar heading into Week 9. The return of Chris Thompson may take some of the targets away from Robinson but I don’t think he poses much of a threat to the overall ceiling of Robinson this week (against Houston’s 27th ranked run defense who bleeds points to opposing running backs).

With the rookie QB in Jake Luton making his debut, I expect Jacksonville to play a bit conservative and utilize Robinson as much as possible (check-downs, 20+ carriers, etc.) and that should lead to a very high floor and a potential ceiling game for Robinson in NFL DFS GPP lineups… as the Jaguars play catch-up to Houston all game long.
Christian McCaffrey – It’s Christian McCaffrey and he’s priced the lowest we’ll likely ever see him again. I say it time and time again the way to move the football against Kansas City is via the run (ranked 28th in run defense DVOA). He’s been out for quite some time and all reports say that was to ensure he’s 100% healthy when he comes back to football.

That time is now and he’s going to be 5% owned… I’m in.

Honorable Mention: Josh Jacobs, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Antonio Gibson, Nyheim Hines

Wide Receivers

Julio Jones – No AJ Bouye for Denver and likely no Calvin Ridley for Atlanta. Do I need to say much more? I really like this game’s chances of being an up-paced shootout with little-to-no defense at all. Julio is arguably the top wide receiver on this slate in that situation.
Tyler Lockett – Don’t care what his ownership is, I always love top-tier wide receivers in high-total games matchup up against Buffalo slot corner, Taron Johnson.
Allen Robinson / Darnell Mooney – On the other side of Derrick Henry, I’m likely to rollout one of these Bears’ wide receivers. I love picking on Tennessee’s secondary and I low-key think this game is going to be a bit of a shootout. I obviously prefer Robinson, but Mooney is 100% a serviceable punt-play as they both will get their fair share to do damage against Adoree Jackson and slow, Malcolm Butler.

With Jadeveon Clowney likely out for this game, the Titans’ awful pass rush is only going to be worse. Nick Foles should have plenty of time to get Robinson and Mooney the football (despite having tons of offensive line injuries themselves).
Justin Jefferson – The AETY Model loves the Vikings’ offense this week, so I’m likely to get a lot of exposure to Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, and Justin Jefferson. Most of my lineup builds do not allow me to afford Thielen, so I’m going to roll out a lot of 5% owned Justin Jefferson (who I honestly prefer over Thielen anyways).

These Lions’ cornerbacks with or without Desmond Trufant have struggled all season long and that is not going to change in Week 9.
Marvin Jones – I have no idea how Marvin Jones isn’t projected for 40% ownership going up against Minnesota’s poor excuse for an NFL secondary. Cam Dantzler in coverage? Yikes. At $5,100 on DraftKings, Marvin Jones is going to be a core play for me everywhere this week.
Mike Williams – Alright, it’s time for the ballsy 100 yards receiving and at least one touchdown, call of the week. This week, that guy is going to be Mike Williams. This dude always has slate-breaking potential with an insanely high average depth of target and a climbing target share with Justin Herbert.

Obviously, Keenan Allen is Herbert’s boy, there is no denying that. But, as 25% of the field rushes to roster Keenan Allen, pivoting down to a much cheaper Mike Williams makes a lot of sense to me. You can also double-stack them with Herbert as well. If the Raiders can keep this game moving and keep it close, both of these wide receivers should have a field day against Trayvon Mullen, Lamarcus Joyner, and Nevin Lawson. These corners cannot contain the Chargers’ wideouts.

Honorable Mention: DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Terry McLaurin, Jerry Jeudy, Hollywood Brown, DJ Chark, Henry Ruggs

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

Travis Kelce – It’s Travis Kelce.
Darren Waller – He’s going to be very popular, but the majority of my lineups are predicting a shootout between the Raiders and the Chargers. I’ll need a lot of production from Darren Waller in hopes that gamescript runs true.
TJ Hockenson – Similar to Marvin Jones, Hockenson should have a great bump up with Golladay out (in what’s already been a shocking amount of production in the 2020 season). I think this game will be a bit more up-paced than most think and most gamescripts come down to the Lions’ chasing points. That should bode well for both Marvin Jones and TJ Hockenson.
Hayden Hurst – The target share has been continuously climbing over the past few weeks and the salary has not. Without Calvin Ridley, Hayden Hurst should continue to see 6+ targets and boost in red-zone usage. This game is likely to be a shootout and I’ll have a lot of Hurst/Julio exposure.

Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, Evan Engram, Jonnu Smith

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 3

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to stay hot. We’ve absolutely smashed Weeks One and Two and will continue to do so this week. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 3 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

*Obviously, Russell Wilson/Dak Prescott/Kyler Murray are in absolute smash spots. I don’t need to write them up. I’m much higher on Russell, but both are in play. Russell is probably my favorite of the three and I’m likely to be under-weight on both Kyler and Dak*

Cam Newton ($6,700 DK / $7,700 FD) – All hail, King Newton in Week 3… more on Newton in the Cash Game Checkdown. He’s coming off of a tough loss on the road in Seattle and will look to absolutely light up this Las Vegas defense. These corners can’t contain Edelman/Harry/Byrd and Newton will also do a lot of damage via the run.

My ONLY CONCERN is Las Vegas’ ability to keep this game close and up-paced. Under 10% in ownership… I’ll take that risk. You can run him out naked or stack him up with one or two of the below:

Potential Stacks:
Edelman/Harry
Edelman/Byrd
Byrd/Harry
Joe Burrow ($6,200 DK / $7,400 FD) – Burrow’s ownership is coming in at under 2% right now and that alone is enough for me to be interested in Burrow. With or without Darius Slay, this Philadelphia secondary is well below average (ranking 27th in Pass Defense DVOA) and Zac Taylor’s up-paced offense should bode well in this spot.

We all know Miles Sanders is good-chalk, so why not get some exposure to the other side of the ball here. This is a sneaky, up-paced game stack as a whole.

Potential Stacks:
– Boyd/Green
– Boyd/Sample
– Sample/Green
– Mixon/Boyd
– Mixon/Green
Potential Game Stacks:
– Burrow/Boyd/Sanders
– Burrow/Boyd/Sanders/Ertz (or Goeddert)
– Burrow/Boyd/Green/Sanders/Ertz (or Goeddert)

Honestly, there’s so many variations of this game you can stack up. I’m in on Joe Burrow.
Ben Roethlisberger ($6,400 DK / $7,500 FD) – I’m not super high on using Big Ben, but this matchup is absolutely pristine. He’s due for a classic 300 yard passing game with 4 touchdowns and this may be the spot. I’m very interested in this Pittsburgh offense from multiple angles as you’ll read a bit later.

Potential Stacks:
– JuJu/Diontae
– JuJu/Ebron
– Diontae/Ebron
– Conner/JuJu
– Conner/Diontae
Mitchell Trubisky ($5,700 DK / $7,500 FD) – Way too expensive on FanDuel but a nice salary relief on DraftKings. This is the nuts matchup for opposing quarterbacks. Feel free to read the cash game article for more on Trubisky.

Potential Stacks:
– Robinson/Miller
– Robinson/Mooney
– Robinson/Graham
– Robinson/Montgomery

My personal preference is just using Robinson, but this matchup is sexy for all Chicago pass-catchers.

Honorable Mention: Carson Wentz, Daniel Jones, Tom Brady

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($7,600 DK / $8,600 FD) – Dalvin Cook is coming in at under 5% in ownership?! With no Barkley, McCaffrey, Kamara, Aaron Jones, and Edwards-Helaire on this slate, HOW THE HELL are people not interested in Dalvin Cook?

Tennessee just got shredded on the ground against James Robinson… Kubiak is going to smash this Titans’ defense on the ground. Dalvin Cook is currently (-170) to score a touchdown, which only trails Derrick Henry (-200) and Ezekiel Elliott (-220). Get you some Dalvin Cook this week in your NFL DFS GPP!
James Conner ($6,700 DK / $7,100 FD) – I mentioned earlier my love for the Steelers’ offense this week and it starts with James Conner. Houston has been getting throttled (24th in run defense DVOA) by opposing running backs and a healthy James Conner is likely to do the same. If he stays around 5% ownership, jam him in.
Austin Ekeler ($6,800 DK / $7,500 FD) / Joshua Kelley ($5,000 DK / $5,900 FD) – The worst ranked run defense in the NFL is going up against one of the heaviest run-offenses in the NFL… Yet, Ekeler’s ownership is ~5% on DraftKings and Kelley’s is ~10% in this week’s NFL DFS GPP. What’s going on this week? What am I missing? They’re giving up 3 rushing touchdowns per game, lol.
David Montgomery ($5,700 DK / $6,100 FD) – I’m loving that I’m seeing Montgomery more active in the passing-game and becoming a true, three-down running back. At this price, we don’t need a whole lot out of Montgomery to hit 3x value. I’m not in love with him this weekend, but we’ll need some salary relief and he offers that in a plus-matchup against Atlanta.

Honorable Mention: Nick Chubb, Chris Carson, Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Jeff Wilson, Darrell Henderson, D’Andre Swift

Wide Receivers

**I do not need to write-up Seattle and Dallas wide receivers. They are all in incredible spots and you are likely going to want 1 of them (minimum) in every lineup you make this weekend**

Julian Edelman ($6,200 DK / $6,500 FD) / N’Keal Harry ($4,200 DK / $5,300 FD) – See Cam’s write-up for why I love these Patriots’ wide receivers. Trayvon Muller, Lamarcus Joyner, and Damon Arnette are arguably the worst cornerback trio in the AETY Model. Both Edelman and Harry have a massive target share and get plenty of looks in the red-zone.

If Cam Newton doesn’t run all of the touchdowns in himself, Harry and Edelman are in for big games. Let’s just hope the Raiders can keep this one close and get the pace moving.
Allen Robinson ($6,200 DK / $6,900 FD ) – See cash game article for more notes. Absolute best matchup on the slate with Isaiah Oliver being the “top” cornerback for Atlanta, now that A.J. Terrell is out with Covid-19.
Odell Beckham Jr. ($6,300 DK / $6,800 FD) – Ronald Darby and Fabian Moreau? Odell should will run circles around these cornerbacks. I always pick on Darby, but this is more-so about the lack of ownership on Odell Beckham Jr. who’s seeing ~34% of the Cleveland target share. If Odell Beckham Jr. went crazy and broke this slate, would it truly surprise anyone?

He’s too cheap for the upside he offers in this matchup.
JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6,600 DK / $7,000 FD) – Simply an easy pivot off of Diontae Johnson chalk week. JuJu is in the same matchup against Houston’s awful defense, yet he’s going to come in under 5% in ownership…
Chris Godwin ($6,700 DK / $7,900 FD) – Godwin is back to 100% health after passing concussion protocol. We picked on this rookie slot-cornerback last week with JuJu and didn’t see a whole lot of success due to the gamescript, but I’m going back to the well here as Tampa is likely to beat Denver through the air. Godwin is arguably the best slot receiver in football right now and has a ~4-inch height advantage over Essang Bassey. He’s going to be sub-5% owned.
Corey Davis ($5,200 DK / $5,300 FD) – Where the hell are all the people who rostered Corey Davis last week? This is the best matchup on earth for Davis against a Minnesota secondary (that has been awful) who just lost Mike Hughes. Holton Hill is going to cover Mike Davis? Sign me up. I don’t understand how the field isn’t all over this salary-saving wide receiver, in a game total at 50-points. Use him on the other side of Dalvin Cook.
Darius Slayton ($4,900 DK / $5,500 FD) – Just a conviction play for me this week. With Sterling Shepard out and virtually everyone out for this San Francisco 49ers’ defense, Slayton should be in for a massive breakout game.
Larry Fitzgerald ($4,600 DK / $5,400 FD) – While everyone goes to Kyler/Drake/D-Hop, where is the love for Larry Fitzgerald? Christian Kirk is out for this game and Larry Fitzgerald offers us some extremely cheap exposure to one of the most popular games on the slate (at sub-5% ownership).

Vegas books are posting a 5.5 receptions prop for Larry Fitzgerald and that’s music to my ears. The AETY Model happens to love the value of Fitzgerald as well for NFL DFS GPPs. It’s not sexy, but I’ll have a lot of Larry Fitzgerald.

Honorable Mention: DJ Moore, Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin, AJ Green, Tyler Boyd, Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller, Keenan Allen, DeSean Jackson, Michael Pittman Jr.

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

Evan Engram ($5,000 DK / $5,900 FD) – Same situation as Darius Slayton above. Engram is an extremely talented player and should own the target share this week with no Shepard and Barkley. Again, there is no one healthy on this 49ers’ defense.
Hayden Hurst ($4,700 DK / $5,700 FD) – With or without Julio Jones, I’m very interested in a sub-10% Hayden Hurst. He’s priced extremely affordable at a position that is just not very sexy this week, not to mention this offensive scheme bodes extremely well for its’ tight-end. If the Bears’ pass-rush can bring it, Matt Ryan will have to get rid of it quickly and Hayden Hurst should be the benefactor of those situations.
Noah Fant ($5,400 DK / $5,800 FD) – He’s quite cheap on FanDuel and very affordable on DraftKings. Fant is one of my favorite GPP tight-ends in my lineups that have Chris Godwin. There aren’t many tight-ends as talented as Noah Fant and the targets are going to be there as they likely play catch-up all day long. He’s going to be under 2% owned.

Honorable Mention: Zach Ertz, Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Dallas Goeddert

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

5 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 2

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time to rock and roll. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 1 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

NFL DFS GPP FADES:
Jonathan Taylor
Jordan Reed (unless you have to use him for your core build)
Russell Gage
Ronald Jones
Corey Davis

General GPP Notes:
Ownership seems rather spread out this week. Everyone is going to stack DAL/ATL and for good reason. All of the players in the cash game article are in play for GPPs as well. Here are some ways that I’ll be getting different. Hard to not go 100% on Derrick Henry.

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($7,700 DK / $9,000 FD) – It’s Patrick Freakin’ Mahomes, folks. How is his ownership projected under 10%? I will have a ton of Mahomes and Chiefs’ stacks for the late afternoon hammer. We won’t have a sub 10% owned Mahomes again this season. Bring it back with some Chargers on the other side.

Potential Stack Partners: Kelce, Hill, Watkins, Robinson, CEH
Game Stack Partners: Mike Williams, Ekeler
Lamar Jackson ($8,200 DK / $9,500 FD) – Similar situation to Mahomes. He’s expensive as hell, but likely the highest scoring QB by a wide margin.

Potential Stack Partners: Andrews, Brown
Game Stack Partners: Fuller, David Johnson
Aaron Rodgers ($6,900 DK / $7,900 FD) – I would have bet big money Rodgers was crazy chalk this week but it doesn’t appear so. I’m not as high on him as I was last week, but I’m still high on him. He’s going to ball out.

Potential Stack Partners: Adams, MVS, Aaron Jones, Lazard
Game Stack Partners: Amendola, Marvin Jones, Hockenson
UPDATE: All in on Jones.
Dak Prescott ($6,800 DK / $8,300 FD) – It’s chalky, but it’s hard not to love Dak Prescott and literally everyone in this game for NFL DFS GPP lineups. Stack it up and stack it often.

Potential Stack Partners: Cooper, Lamb, Gallup, Schultz, Elliott
Game Stack Partners: Jones, Ridley, Hurst, Gurley
Mitch Trubisky ($5,500 DK / $7,200 FD) – DraftKings just refuses to raise his price I guess. I’ll go right back to the well with Trubisky at home against a terrible Giants’ defense.

Potential Stack Partners: Robinson, Miller, Montgomery, Cohen
Game Stack Partners: Barkley, Slayton, Engram
UPDATE: Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,700 DK / $7,100 FD) – I woke up today and wanted to review some of the Bills/Jets game film from last week to see if Jimmy Garoppolo warrants a play. I’ve come to the conclusion he does and will have a field day against this Jets’ secondary. Their run defense is stout, but they will get torched via the pass.

Using Garoppolo does the world for the rest of your roster. No one will play him, so it’s an angle I’m going to take and pray for the rest of my lineup to carry me.

Potential Stack Partners: Brandon Aiyuk, Kendrick Bourne, Jordan Reed, Jerick McKinnon, Trent Taylor
Game Stack Partners: Probably no one, but Perriman or Herndon are fine.

Honorable Mention: Matt Ryan, Josh Allen, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Phil Rivers

Running Backs

Aaron Jones ($7,100 DK / $7,700 FD) – The AETY Model is absolutely in love with Aaron Jones this week and I’m going to have a lot of him. The Packers’ offensive line is banged up after losing Lane Taylor for the year… which is scary, but Jones can get it done through the air as well. As everyone flocks to Rodgers/Adams, I’m all about taking the under-the-radar Aaron Jones.
Derrick Henry ($7,900 / $8,300 FD) – If he’s 50% owned, it’s likely too low. Ride him.
Saquon Barkley ($8,400 DK / $9,000 FD) – Barkley is under 10% owned. Do I need to say more? I’m going to have a lot of Saquon Barkley. You can run all over Chicago and Saquon is also likely to receive 5+ targets. He is their offense.
David Montgomery ($5,600 DK / $5,600 FD) – Read the cash game article for takes on Montgomery.
Austin Ekeler ($6,500 DK / $6,900 FD) – Read the cash game article for takes on Ekeler. Long story short, I want to stack the Chiefs, so I want some Chargers on the back-side.

Honorable Mention: Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Nyheim Hines, Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette, Miles Sanders, Antonio Gibson

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

Allen Robinson ($6,400 DK / $7,000 FD) – Squeaky wheel gets the grease. I think that’s the saying? I mentioned earlier how I like Trubisky and the Bears’ offense, so why wouldn’t we jam in their top receiver who is an absolute target hog.
Mike Evans ($6,400 DK / $7,400 FD) – No Godwin. No defense… well, Carolina will suit up 11 guys on defense, but they won’t be playing much of it. Tampa should be able to run the hell out of the ball on Sunday, but Brady and Evans can break the slate with a couple of deep balls. I’m all aboard the Evans train.
Calvin Ridley/Julio Jones – Don’t care about their price, we need exposure to this Dallas/Atlanta game. Get a Cowboy and a Falcon in most of your NFL DFS GPP lineups.
DJ Moore ($6,300 DK / $6,800 FD) – On the other side of Mike Evans and the Bucs, I’m going back to DJ Moore. He crushed my upside in what was a helluva Week 1 for me. I’ll forgive him and load him up in a game the Panthers are going to be chasing points in from the get go.
Mike Williams ($4,200 DK / $5,800 FD) – Mr. Air Yards, Mike Williams. I want a lot of Mike Williams this week as the Chargers are going to be playing from behind early in this one. Tyrod will not hesitate to chuck the ball up to Mike Williams and they’re going to connect a few times on Sunday afternoon. Let’s roll.
Marquise Brown ($6,200 DK / $6,200 FD) – Hollywood Brown is always a smash play for GPPs. He’s 100% healthy this year and proved last week he’s just an absolute matchup nightmare.
DJ Chark ($6,000 DK / $6,700 FD) – If we’re going to have this much Derrick Henry, we should give a solid look to a Jacksonville play maker. I wrote him up last week and he was kind of a let-down, but I’m going back to both DJ’s this weekend.
JuJu Smith Schuster ($6,500 DK / $7,100 FD) – JuJu is going up against a rookie slot-cornerback. This is a smash matchup for a top-tier wide receiver with sub 5% ownership. I think he’s one of my favorites this week.

Honorable Mention: Adam Thielen, Cooper Kupp, Hollywood Brown, Will Fuller, Preston Williams, TY Hilton, Parris Campbell

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD) – By far the best tight end on the slate and I want a lot of KC/LAC exposure this week.
Mark Andrews ($6,300 DK / $7,500 FD) – He’s a red-zone freak and likely to lead the NFL in tight end touchdowns. Houston is going to have a tough time slowing down this Baltimore offense as a whole, but I love Andrews almost as much as I do Kelce.
Zach Ertz ($5,600 DK / $6,300 FD) – I’ll always play a sub-10% owned, Zach Ertz. Goedert went off last week, but that doesn’t warrant the field ignoring Zach Ertz.
Hayden Hurst ($4,600 DK / $5,700 FD) – Hurst chalk let a lot of people down last week… unless you’re a member at Win Daily. Now is the week to lock in Hurst and get some cheap exposure to this likely shoot-out. Dallas’ linebacking core is beat up and the rest of this team is going to have their hands full with Julio and Ridley. Hurst szn.

Honorable Mention: TJ Hockenson, Evan Engram, Hunter Henry, O.J. Howard

Good luck to all!

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