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Welcome you back and thanks for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg. I couldn’t be more satisfied with the results of the inaugural season launch of the MLBMA algo thus far. I really appreciate the support, and hope your season has been nearly as profitable as mine.

A Quick Intro to MLB Moving Averages

MLBMA incorporates proven methods of technical analysis, indicators and trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I created some custom stats to encompass all the prerequisites, and most importantly save us all a ridiculous amount of time. Therefore, a team receiving high grades in Offensive Runs Created (ORC+) or Pitching Runs Allowed (PRA+) have already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.

To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a nonstop, 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Please feel free to refer to the earliest articles on my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ to see some of these metrics walked out in more detail.

Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique betting snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul.

MLBMA Implied Team Totals Betting Key

• Final – Each individual team’s score after the first five innings. Generally, a difference of one full run is the initial indicator for a high percentage play.
• F5 ITT – First Five Implied Team Totals. It is the sum of the two finals and can be applied to F5 Over/Under betting.
• F5 ML – First Five Inning Money Line Bet
• F5 RL – First Five Inning Run Line Bet. -0.5 for Favorites and +0.5 for Underdogs.
• FG ML – Full Game Money Line Bet
• FG RL – Full Game Run Line Bet. -1.5 for Favorites and +1.5 for Underdogs.
• Bets that satisfy the algorithm’s parameters are marked in green and labeled as the highest percentage plays. Not every flagged play ends up being bet.

Remember, these values are on a scale and not to be taken literally. This also makes them extremely versatile across betting formats. The same way we use a difference in implied totals to determine a winner, we can use totals to bet the Over/Under. Any Implied Team Total above 3.0 for a team is considered high, and below 2.6 is considered low. Therefore, a combined F5 total (F5ITT) over 6.0 would be a candidate for an Over bet and a combined F5 total under 5.2 would be a flag for the under.

Once an F5 play is identified, I run some custom MLBMA bullpen filters to determine if the bet is better suited as a nine inning play. The state of the average bullpen in the bigs is so revolting right now, that I instinctively lean towards the more predictable five inning play. However, some situations do call for a FG bet and I never like to leave any stones unturned; This is money we’re talking about.

MLBMA Algo Results w/Implied Team Totals, 7/26

MLBMA Picks for 7/26:

• MIN F5RL -0.5 (-120)
• ARI F5RL -0.5 (-130)
• ATL F5ML (-145)
• SD F5ML (-140)

NOTE: CONSIDER MOVING RL PLAYS MOVE TO ML FOR PARLAYS

I often get questions about betting strategy and it all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays.

I also adjust my daily allotted risk (R) with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.

None of the juice is that crazy so there’s two paths to playing here with four strong plays at decent odds. The conservative player plays all of these straight (0.23Rx4), with a min bet (.08R) on the four team parlay. R=1% of personal stack. I haven’t gone live yet for the record.

If you’re feeling more confident you could take the same amount (and percentage wagered) on the 4 combinations of 3 teams in a Round Robin. If you hit 3, you will make a percentage gain, and all 4 is a monster.

General Betting Strategy

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have three favorite picks, I play a small Tier 1 ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.

Whenever I have four picks, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .

Let’s get it.

Welcome you back and thanks for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg. I couldn’t be more satisfied with the results of the inaugural season launch of the MLBMA algo thus far. I really appreciate the support, and hope your season has been nearly as profitable as mine.

A Quick Intro to MLB Moving Averages

MLBMA incorporates proven methods of technical analysis, indicators and trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I created some custom stats to encompass all the prerequisites, and most importantly save us all a ridiculous amount of time. Therefore, a team receiving high grades in Offensive Runs Created (ORC+) or Pitching Runs Allowed (PRA+) have already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.

To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a nonstop, 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Please feel free to refer to the earliest articles on my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ to see some of these metrics walked out in more detail.

Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique betting snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul.

MLBMA Implied Team Totals Betting Key

• Final – Each individual team’s score after the first five innings. Generally, a difference of one full run is the initial indicator for a high percentage play.
• F5 ITT – First Five Implied Team Totals. It is the sum of the two finals and can be applied to F5 Over/Under betting.
• F5 ML – First Five Inning Money Line Bet
• F5 RL – First Five Inning Run Line Bet. -0.5 for Favorites and +0.5 for Underdogs.
• FG ML – Full Game Money Line Bet
• FG RL – Full Game Run Line Bet. -1.5 for Favorites and +1.5 for Underdogs.
• Bets that satisfy the algorithm’s parameters are marked in green and labeled as the highest percentage plays. Not every flagged play ends up being bet.

Remember, these values are on a scale and not to be taken literally. This also makes them extremely versatile across betting formats. The same way we use a difference in implied totals to determine a winner, we can use totals to bet the Over/Under. Any Implied Team Total above 3.0 for a team is considered high, and below 2.6 is considered low. Therefore, a combined F5 total (F5ITT) over 6.0 would be a candidate for an Over bet and a combined F5 total under 5.2 would be a flag for the under.

Once an F5 play is identified, I run some custom MLBMA bullpen filters to determine if the bet is better suited as a nine inning play. The state of the average bullpen in the bigs is so revolting right now, that I instinctively lean towards the more predictable five inning play. However, some situations do call for a FG bet and I never like to leave any stones unturned; This is money we’re talking about.

MLBMA Algo Betting Results w/Implied Team Totals, 7/25

MLBMA Picks for 7/25: Man vs Machine

I’m trying something a little different today that came to me as I was playing with my kids. My friends, followers, colleagues and readers all know I’m always in a constant state of self audit and backtesting in the hope of increased profitability. Since Opening Day, I have been 100% forthright and transparent about my process and personal plays. The fact of the matter is that regardless how confident you are in the algorithm’s results, there is a subjective element in the application. As a capper there are certain teams, stadiums or scenarios that can shake me off a game that the computer is essentially unaware of. Seems logical, but after the recent success of v1.03 I’ve become increasingly curious as to whether or not I should even step in at all.

Obviously I weigh the program’s results very heavily; The MLBMA track record in its first season speaks for itself. It has rattled off 12+ straight wins 4 different times this season. However, sometimes I stray with success and other times those moves are met with failure. I’m hoping this will help us isolate and ameliorate the performance of each. This will improve our ability to discern the best plays and further capitalize on an already successful track record. I won’t be so arrogant as to assume that my added elements (eye test, name recognition, etc) add to our desired edge. Just yesterday the algo wanted the Twins in the Bronx and I stepped in, afraid of the Yankees. I went for the next pick in the Rays. Well, the Twins won and the Rays got killed. Machine 1, Man 0.

I’m going to post all of my own top personal plays here, as always. Then in addition, I will list the algo’s top plays strictly by the difference in implied team totals (With slight + boost for home field). This will give us an objective comparison, verified in real time. Some picks will overlap, and we’ll call those our Consensus Picks.

The Man’s Bets 7/25:

• OAK F5ML (-185)
• MIN F5ML (-140)
• +151

NOTE: Always swap to ML if parlaying for chance to survive in the event of a push.

We’ve had one of our only three day losing streaks so I’m at minimum risk (0.5% of stack), playing the pair and preserving capital during the draw-down. You have to have that closer’s mentality at all times. Proactive, not reactive responses are key to sustained success.

The Algo’s Bets 7/25:

• OAK F5RL -0.5 (-125)
• MIN F5RL -0.5 (+110)
• NYY F5ML (-125)

The algo doesn’t share my fear of the Red Sox.

I can’t help but feed my love of testing with live action, but remember I have all of this risk carefully accounted for around my own personal written business plan. If I were advising serious players I would definitely recommend tailing my own picks and plays, but simply monitoring to follow along with the algo. I never recommend forcing extra action; Those lost percentage points always must be made up.

General Betting Strategy

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have three favorite picks, I play a small Tier 1 ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.

Whenever I have four picks, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .

Let’s get it.

Welcome you back and thanks for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg. I couldn’t be more satisfied with the results of the inaugural season launch of the MLBMA algo thus far. I really appreciate the support, and hope your season has been nearly as profitable as mine.

A Quick Intro to MLB Moving Averages

MLBMA incorporates proven methods of technical analysis, indicators and trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I created some custom stats to encompass all the prerequisites, and most importantly save us all a ridiculous amount of time. Therefore, a team receiving high grades in Offensive Runs Created (ORC+) or Pitching Runs Allowed (PRA+) have already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.

To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a nonstop, 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Please feel free to refer to the earliest articles on my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ to see some of these metrics walked out in more detail.

Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique betting snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul.

MLBMA Implied Team Totals Betting Key

• Final – Each individual team’s score after the first five innings. Generally, a difference of one full run is the initial indicator for a high percentage play.
• F5 ITT – First Five Implied Team Totals. It is the sum of the two finals and can be applied to F5 Over/Under betting.
• F5 ML – First Five Inning Money Line Bet
• F5 RL – First Five Inning Run Line Bet. -0.5 for Favorites and +0.5 for Underdogs.
• FG ML – Full Game Money Line Bet
• FG RL – Full Game Run Line Bet. -1.5 for Favorites and +1.5 for Underdogs.
• Bets that satisfy the algorithm’s parameters are marked in green and labeled as the highest percentage plays. Not every flagged play ends up being bet.

Remember, these values are on a scale and not to be taken literally. This also makes them extremely versatile across betting formats. The same way we use a difference in implied totals to determine a winner, we can use totals to bet the Over/Under. Any Implied Team Total above 3.0 for a team is considered high, and below 2.6 is considered low. Therefore, a combined F5 total (F5ITT) over 6.0 would be a candidate for an Over bet and a combined F5 total under 5.2 would be a flag for the under.

Once an F5 play is identified, I run some custom MLBMA bullpen filters to determine if the bet is better suited as a nine inning play. The state of the average bullpen in the bigs is so revolting right now, that I instinctively lean towards the more predictable five inning play. However, some situations do call for a FG bet and I never like to leave any stones unturned; This is money we’re talking about.

MLBMA Algo Betting Results w/Implied Team Totals, 7/25

MLBMA Picks for 7/25: Man vs Machine

I’m trying something a little different today that came to me as I was playing with my kids. My friends, followers, colleagues and readers all know I’m always in a constant state of self audit and backtesting in the hope of increased profitability. Since Opening Day, I have been 100% forthright and transparent about my process and personal plays. The fact of the matter is that regardless how confident you are in the algorithm’s results, there is a subjective element in the application. As a capper there are certain teams, stadiums or scenarios that can shake me off a game that the computer is essentially unaware of. Seems logical, but after the recent success of v1.03 I’ve become increasingly curious as to whether or not I should even step in at all.

Obviously I weigh the program’s results very heavily; The MLBMA track record in its first season speaks for itself. It has rattled off 12+ straight wins 4 different times this season. However, sometimes I stray with success and other times those moves are met with failure. I’m hoping this will help us isolate and ameliorate the performance of each. This will improve our ability to discern the best plays and further capitalize on an already successful track record. I won’t be so arrogant as to assume that my added elements (eye test, name recognition, etc) add to our desired edge. Just yesterday the algo wanted the Twins in the Bronx and I stepped in, afraid of the Yankees. I went for the next pick in the Rays. Well, the Twins won and the Rays got killed. Machine 1, Man 0.

I’m going to post all of my own top personal plays here, as always. Then in addition, I will list the algo’s top plays strictly by the difference in implied team totals (With slight + boost for home field). This will give us an objective comparison, verified in real time. Some picks will overlap, and we’ll call those our Consensus Picks.

The Man’s Bets 7/25:

• OAK F5ML (-185)
• MIN F5ML (-140)
• +151

NOTE: Always swap to ML if parlaying for chance to survive in the event of a push.

We’ve had one of our only three day losing streaks so I’m at minimum risk (0.5% of stack), playing the pair and preserving capital during the draw-down. You have to have that closer’s mentality at all times. Proactive, not reactive responses are key to sustained success.

The Algo’s Bets 7/25:

• OAK F5RL -0.5 (-125)
• MIN F5RL -0.5 (+110)
• NYY F5ML (-125)

The algo doesn’t share my fear of the Red Sox.

I can’t help but feed my love of testing with live action, but remember I have all of this risk carefully accounted for around my own personal written business plan. If I were advising serious players I would definitely recommend tailing my own picks and plays, but simply monitoring to follow along with the algo. I never recommend forcing extra action; Those lost percentage points always must be made up.

General Betting Strategy

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have three favorite picks, I play a small Tier 1 ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.

Whenever I have four picks, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .

Let’s get it.

It’s 7/22 and I’d like to welcome you back and thank you for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg. I couldn’t be more satisfied with the results of the inaugural season launch of the MLBMA algo thus far. I really appreciate the support, and hope your season has been nearly as profitable as mine.

A Quick Intro to MLB Moving Averages

MLBMA incorporates proven methods of technical analysis, indicators and trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I created some custom stats to encompass all the prerequisites, and most importantly save us all a ridiculous amount of time. Therefore, a team receiving high grades in Offensive Runs Created (ORC+) or Pitching Runs Allowed (PRA+) have already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.

To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a nonstop, 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Please feel free to refer to the earliest articles on my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ to see some of these metrics walked out in more detail.

Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique betting snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul.

MLBMA Implied Team Totals Betting Key

• Final – Each individual team’s score after the first five innings. Generally, a difference of one full run is the initial indicator for a high percentage play.
• F5 ITT – First Five Implied Team Totals. It is the sum of the two finals and can be applied to F5 Over/Under betting.
• F5 ML – First Five Inning Money Line Bet
• F5 RL – First Five Inning Run Line Bet. -0.5 for Favorites and +0.5 for Underdogs.
• FG ML – Full Game Money Line Bet
• FG RL – Full Game Run Line Bet. -1.5 for Favorites and +1.5 for Underdogs.
• Bets that satisfy the algorithm’s parameters are marked in green and labeled as the highest percentage plays. Not every flagged play ends up being bet.

Remember, these values are on a scale and not to be taken literally. This also makes them extremely versatile across betting formats. The same way we use a difference in implied totals to determine a winner, we can use totals to bet the Over/Under. Any Implied Team Total above 3.0 for a team is considered high, and below 2.6 is considered low. Therefore, a combined F5 total (F5ITT) over 6.0 would be a candidate for an Over bet and a combined F5 total under 5.2 would be a flag for the under.

Once an F5 play is identified, I run some custom MLBMA bullpen filters to determine if the bet is better suited as a nine inning play. The state of the average bullpen in the bigs is so revolting right now, that I instinctively lean towards the more predictable five inning play. However, some situations do call for a FG bet and I never like to leave any stones unturned; This is money we’re talking about.

MLBMA Algo Betting Results w/Implied Team Totals, 7/23

MLBMA Picks for 7/23: Man vs Machine

I’m trying something a little different today that came to me as I was playing with my kids. My friends, followers, colleagues and readers all know I’m always in a constant state of self audit and backtesting in the hope of increased profitability. Since Opening Day, I have been 100% forthright and transparent about my process and personal plays. The fact of the matter is that regardless how confident you are in the algorithm’s results, there is a subjective element in the application. As a capper there are certain teams, stadiums or scenarios that can shake me off a game that the computer is essentially unaware of. Seems logical, but after the recent success of v1.03 I’ve become increasingly curious as to whether or not I should even step in at all.

Obviously I weigh the program’s results very heavily; The MLBMA track record in its first season speaks for itself. It has rattled off 12+ straight wins 4 different times this season. However, sometimes I stray with success and other times those moves are met with failure. I’m hoping this will help us isolate and ameliorate the performance of each. This will improve our ability to discern the best plays and further capitalize on an already successful track record. I won’t be so arrogant as to assume that my added elements (eye test, name recognition, etc) add to our desired edge. Just yesterday the algo wanted the Twins in the Bronx and I stepped in, afraid of the Yankees. I went for the next pick in the Rays. Well, the Twins won and the Rays got killed. Machine 1, Man 0.

I’m going to post all of my own top personal plays here, as always. Then in addition, I will list the algo’s top plays strictly by the difference in implied team totals (With slight + boost for home field). This will give us an objective comparison, verified in real time. Some picks will overlap, and we’ll call those our Consensus Picks.

The Man’s Bets 7/23:

• CLE F5RL (-130) NOTE: Always swap to ML if parlaying for chance to survive in the event of a push.
• SD FGML (-135)
• HOU FGML (-155)

I’m going to get a little exposure to all of these parlayed, and then more heavily in a Round Robin format of AB, BC, AC. Two of three should at least get back to even, and three is a beautiful thing.

The Algo’s Bets 7/23:

• CLE F5RL (-130)
• ARI F5RL (120)
• WAS F5RL (-165)

I can’t help but feed my love of testing with live action, but remember I have all of this risk carefully accounted for around my own personal written business plan. If I were advising serious players I would recommend they tail my own picks and plays, and simply monitor to follow along the algo plays. I never recommend forcing extra action; Those lost percentage points always must be made up.

Consensus Bets:

• CLE F5RL (-130)

General Betting Strategy

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have three favorite picks, I play a small Tier 1 ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.

Whenever I have four picks, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .

Let’s get it.

It’s 7/22 and I’d like to welcome you back and thank you for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg. I couldn’t be more satisfied with the results of the inaugural season launch of the MLBMA algo thus far. I really appreciate the support, and hope your season has been nearly as profitable as mine.

A Quick Intro to MLB Moving Averages

MLBMA incorporates proven methods of technical analysis, indicators and trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I created some custom stats to encompass all the prerequisites, and most importantly save us all a ridiculous amount of time. Therefore, a team receiving high grades in Offensive Runs Created (ORC+) or Pitching Runs Allowed (PRA+) have already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.

To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a nonstop, 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Please feel free to refer to the earliest articles on my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ to see some of these metrics walked out in more detail.

Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique betting snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul.

MLBMA Implied Team Totals Betting Key

• Final – Each individual team’s score after the first five innings. Generally, a difference of one full run is the initial indicator for a high percentage play.
• F5 ITT – First Five Implied Team Totals. It is the sum of the two finals and can be applied to F5 Over/Under betting.
• F5 ML – First Five Inning Money Line Bet
• F5 RL – First Five Inning Run Line Bet. -0.5 for Favorites and +0.5 for Underdogs.
• FG ML – Full Game Money Line Bet
• FG RL – Full Game Run Line Bet. -1.5 for Favorites and +1.5 for Underdogs.
• Bets that satisfy the algorithm’s parameters are marked in green and labeled as the highest percentage plays. Not every flagged play ends up being bet.

Remember, these values are on a scale and not to be taken literally. This also makes them extremely versatile across betting formats. The same way we use a difference in implied totals to determine a winner, we can use totals to bet the Over/Under. Any Implied Team Total above 3.0 for a team is considered high, and below 2.6 is considered low. Therefore, a combined F5 total (F5ITT) over 6.0 would be a candidate for an Over bet and a combined F5 total under 5.2 would be a flag for the under.

Once an F5 play is identified, I run some custom MLBMA bullpen filters to determine if the bet is better suited as a nine inning play. The state of the average bullpen in the bigs is so revolting right now, that I instinctively lean towards the more predictable five inning play. However, some situations do call for a FG bet and I never like to leave any stones unturned; This is money we’re talking about.

MLBMA Algo Betting Results w/Implied Team Totals, 7/22

MLBMA Picks and Plays for 7/22:

Public Bets 7/22:

• STL F5ML (-110)
• CIN F5RL +0.5 (-145)
• MIA F5RL +0.5 (-135)
• TB FGRL +1.5 (-145)

I’m going to get exposure to all of these straight, and in combinations.

MLBMA BONUS Dog Catcher Lotto Ticket

• CIN F5ML (-110)
• TB F5ML (+100)
• MIN F5ML (-110)
• MIA F5ML (+100)
• HOU F5ML (-280)
• ARI F5ML (-260)
• (+2840, or $20 pays $600 and any multiple thereof)

It’s called a lotto ticket for a reason. It should represent no more than 0.25% of your entire stack. I weigh all my plays responsibly against my account AT ALL TIMES.

General Strategy

If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. Whenever I have three favorite picks, I play a small Tier 1 ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but it always depends on the odds that day. I do not like to pay any heavy juice beyond -200, so I would never play those straight. Those have to be paired, or faded. Anybody can win on any day.

Whenever I have four picks, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a profit, and all 4 is huge night on a small risk.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .

Today is 7/21, and I’d like to thank you for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg for the inaugural season launch of the MLBMA algo. I really appreciate the support, and hope your season has been nearly as profitable as mine. Above all, once you can speak the lingo and understand the daily readout, this single sheet will give you an advantage in all betting formats instantaneously.

A Quick Intro to MLBMA & The Application of ORC+/PRA+

MLBMA incorporates technical analysis & trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I’ve created some new custom stats we’ll be using going forward. They will encompass all the prerequisites and most importantly save us all ridiculous amounts of time. Therefore, a team receiving a high grade in Offensive Runs Created or Pitching Runs Allowed has already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.

To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul. This type of board analysis isn’t child’s play.

MLBMA Implied Team Totals and ORC+/PRA+ Betting Key

I set the conditional formatting for the board similarly to the incomparable Baseball Savant. Red is elite, all the way down to blue being the worst. Therefore, regardless which side of the ball we’re analyzing, we’re always looking for red and higher ORC+/PRA+.

For DFS purposes to identify the highest rated Starting Pitchers, find the greatest negative difference between opposing PRA and ORC in Dark Blue. To identify the highest rated offensive stacks, find the greatest positive difference between opposing ORC and PRA in Dark Red.

For purposes of simplification, I recently added ITT, or Implied Team Totals. These are a function of the combination of opposing ORC+/PRA+ grades. These are the actual predicted scores by the MLBMA algo. Of course, it can also be used for O/U plays or to identify DFS stacks as well.

MLBMA Betting Analysis 7/21

It’s important for me to note that there are two ways I use the Algo results when selecting F5 bets. The first and most oft used is identifying a difference of one run or greater in the Implied Team Total (ITT) column. Remember, these values are on a scale and not to be taken literally. Subsequently, the MLBMA algo is never going to imply either twelve or zero runs for a team. In addition, we can also identify two phase advantages in both Offensive Runs Created and Pitching Runs Scored.

A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .

MLBMA Algo Betting Results w/Implied Team Totals for 1pm Slate, 7/21

MLBMA Betting, Picks and Plays for 7/21:

Bets 7/21:

• Tier 1
• CLE F5RL if straight, ML if parlayed
• BOS F5RL if straight, ML if parlayed
• CHC F5RL if straight, ML if parlayed

• Tier 2
• SF F5ML
• TB F5RL if straight, ML if parlayed
• NYY F5RL if straight, ML if parlayed
• CIN F5ML

For some thoughts on strategy and different ways to play, check out my last article https://windailysports.com/betting-premium-mlbma-algo-results-7-19-19/.

My initial thought here is play a small Tier 1 ABC ML parlay, and then play all 3 RL straight. For tier 2, I’m going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a profit for the tier.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. Bet small, bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

DFS Pitchers 7/21:

• Hendricks
• Snell
• Paxton

DFS Offensive Stacks 7/21:

• CLE
• BOS
• CIN

Thanks for reading, following along and interacting on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg for the inaugural season launch of the MLBMA algo. I really appreciate the support, and hope your season has been nearly as profitable as mine. Above all, once you can speak the lingo and understand the daily readout, this single sheet will give you an advantage in all betting formats instantaneously.

A Quick Intro to MLBMA & The Application of ORC+/PRA+

MLBMA incorporates technical analysis & trading techniques towards the current MLB betting space. I’ve created some new custom stats we’ll be using going forward. They will encompass all the prerequisites and most importantly save us all ridiculous amounts of time. Therefore, a team receiving a high grade in Offensive Runs Created or Pitching Runs Allowed has already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted averages, trend & split tests.

To list all pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we just don’t have in a 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of how I structure of my statistical arguments. Ultimately my goal is to provide you instantly with the most comprehensive & unique snapshot of any given MLB slate. I want it to cater to those serious players without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. This type of system requires only the most disciplined, intelligent and thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul. This type of board analysis isn’t child’s play.

MLBMA Implied Team Totals and ORC+/PRA+ Betting Key

I set the conditional formatting for the board similarly to the incomparable Baseball Savant. Red is elite, all the way down to blue being the worst. Therefore, regardless which side of the ball we’re analyzing, we’re always looking for red and higher ORC+/PRA+.

For DFS purposes to identify the highest rated Starting Pitchers, find the greatest negative difference between opposing PRA and ORC in Dark Blue. To identify the highest rated offensive stacks, find the greatest positive difference between opposing ORC and PRA in Dark Red.

For purposes of simplification, I recently added ITT, or Implied Team Totals. These are a function of the combination of opposing ORC+/PRA+ grades. These are the actual predicted scores by the MLBMA algo. Of course, it can also be used for O/U plays or to identify DFS stacks as well.

Betting Analysis

It’s important for me to note that there are two ways I use the Algo results when selecting F5 bets. The first and most oft used is identifying a difference of one run or greater in the Implied Team Total (ITT) column. Remember, these values are on a scale and not to be taken literally. Subsequently, the MLBMA algo is never going to imply either twelve or zero runs for a team. In addition, we can also identify two phase advantages in both Offensive Runs Created and Pitching Runs Scored.

A very special thanks to https://fangraphs.com (where I’m good for at least twelve million clicks a season) for helping me scrape and mine this data to determine all of these formulas .

Algo Betting Results w/Implied Team Totals for 7pm Slate, 7.18.19

Betting, Picks and Plays:

Bets:

• Tier 1 F5 Bets:
• LAD – RL Straight / ML if paired or parlayed
• TB – RL Straight / ML if paired or parlayed
• TOR – RL Straight / ML if paired or parlayed

• Tier 2 F5 Bets:
• NYM
• BOS
• NYY

• Tier 3 F5 Bets:
• CLE
• CIN
• HOU

I haven’t gone live, and never do so until lineups are out. I got so many hits today that I had to split them into tiers. Anyone who knows me knows that I hate to try and grade picks, it is truly a fool’s errand. However, it’s impossible to guide people through nine picks without establishing some order. As always, I tried to keep things as objective as possible and ranked the games strictly by difference in Implied Team Totals.

Right now, I’m only going to focus on Tier 1. Three picks is very manageable, and a good place to start. Then, if you want you can apply the same strategy to the second and third tier. I suggest playing all three games in a tier straight, but shift to the -0.5 RL at better odds. 2 of 3 should at the least yield a small percentage profit. I’ll also get exposure to the 3 team ML parlay at a lower entry price. My usual go to, the F5ML Round Robin, yields a negative return on 2 of 3 due to heavy juice so I’d avoid it here. However it does bring me to an important point; Always play with the numbers. Everyone’s account size and expectations are different. Find a style that’s suited to you and never let anyone else dictate that.

As far as tiers 2 and 3, I’m going to have some fun with them. I’ll be mixing and matching in different combos. I recommend beginners protect their capital, and stick to the top tier plays only. I’m coming off 15 wins in a row and playing with some house money right now. My situation may not be your own. If you ever find yourself stressed over a bet, then you wagered too much.

DFS Pitchers:

• Ryu
• Price
• Stroman
• McKay

DFS Offensive Stacks:

• NYY
• MIL/ARI game
• TB
• TOR